Conference on European Territorial Research 13-14 October 2005 Scenarios for European Spatial Development ESPON Project 3.2. Jacques ROBERT.

Conference on European Conference on European Territorial ResearchTerritorial Research13-14 October 200513-14 October 2005

Scenarios for European Scenarios for European Spatial DevelopmentSpatial Development

ESPON Project 3.2.ESPON Project 3.2.

Jacques ROBERTJacques ROBERT

Objectives

ESPON 3.2 has two main objectives:

Synthesize all data and information collected in the ESPON projects and other transnational research efforts and build spatialized scenarios on possible and (un)desirable futures in order to deduce policy recommendations from them.

2. Coordinate the ESPON research effort in order to develop sustainable tools allowing the creation of a research network / programme on European territorial planning.

Information flows in the scenario Information flows in the scenario writing processwriting process

Scenario Writing

Future Research

Information Base

KTEN Model

MASST Model

Results of ESPON Projects

Communicationand

Consultation

European Territorial Cohesion

Index

Submodel 1: National componentSubmodel 2: Regional differential

component

Exchange rate movements

€ / $, national currencies

Internal consumption

Δ Efficiency wage(inflation and productivity increases)

Exports

Macroeconomic elements

Interest rates

Internal investments

Foreign direct investments Differential shift

Regional differential component

Social and human capital policies

Infrastructural policies

Innovative policies

Structural policies

PAC

Social capital

Human capital

Infrastructural level

Innovative capacity

Regional structural elements

Capital / labour ratio

Population

Macroeconomic policies

Territorial context

Geographical position

Urban structure

Productive structure

National component

National growth- attractiveness- economic success

Regional growth- attractiveness- economic success- spatial spillovers

Regional equity disparities

Final economic effect

Public expenditure

Imports

Accessibility

The scenario writing process is composed of The scenario writing process is composed of two phases:two phases:

- a series of exploratory policy-oriented - a series of exploratory policy-oriented thematic scenarios (up to summer 2005)thematic scenarios (up to summer 2005)

- a series of integrated scenarios - a series of integrated scenarios (prospective and roll-back)(prospective and roll-back)

The scenarios will be assessed as to their The scenarios will be assessed as to their impact on territorial cohesionimpact on territorial cohesion

Policy recommendations will be formulatedPolicy recommendations will be formulated

Exploratory and policy-oriented Exploratory and policy-oriented thematic scenarios (Phase 1 of Project thematic scenarios (Phase 1 of Project

3.2.)3.2.)

Didactic objective of thematic scenarios:Didactic objective of thematic scenarios:

Highlighting the territorial impacts of Highlighting the territorial impacts of exogenous factors taken individuallyexogenous factors taken individually

Approach:Approach:

For each theme, opposite hypotheses are For each theme, opposite hypotheses are chosen (relatively extreme, but not chosen (relatively extreme, but not unrealistic)unrealistic)

THEMATIC EXPLORATORY AND THEMATIC EXPLORATORY AND POLICY SCENARIOS (ROLL-POLICY SCENARIOS (ROLL-

FORWARD)FORWARD) DemographyDemography Socio-cultural Socio-cultural

evolutionevolution EconomyEconomy TransportTransport Climate changeClimate change

EnergyEnergy Rural Rural

developmentdevelopment EU enlargementEU enlargement Territorial Territorial

governancegovernance

Scenario hypothesesScenario hypothesesDEMOGRAPHYDEMOGRAPHY

Two prospective scenarios:Two prospective scenarios:

1.1. « Silver century »: population « Silver century »: population ageing and contained European ageing and contained European immigration (trend)immigration (trend)

2.2. « Open borders »: radical change in « Open borders »: radical change in European immigration policy (policy European immigration policy (policy scenario)scenario)

Socio-cultural evolutionSocio-cultural evolution

Two prospective scenarios:Two prospective scenarios:

1.1. « Non-mastered socio-cultural « Non-mastered socio-cultural diversity »diversity » (increasing tensions (increasing tensions between ethnic and cultural groups; between ethnic and cultural groups; increasing segregation)increasing segregation)

2.2. « towards a peaceful « towards a peaceful multicultural society in Europe » multicultural society in Europe » (success of multiculturalism and (success of multiculturalism and integration policies)integration policies)

EconomyEconomyFour scenarios resulting from the combination of Four scenarios resulting from the combination of

two policy objectives:two policy objectives:- global economic efficiency and - global economic efficiency and competitivenesscompetitiveness- cohesion, equity in development- cohesion, equity in development

1. Strong competitiveness policy/weak 1. Strong competitiveness policy/weak cohesioncohesion policypolicy

2. Weak competitiveness and weak cohesion 2. Weak competitiveness and weak cohesion policiespolicies

3. Strong cohesion policy/ weak 3. Strong cohesion policy/ weak competitiveness policycompetitiveness policy

4. Strong competitiveness and strong 4. Strong competitiveness and strong cohesion policiescohesion policies

TransportTransport

Two policy scenarios:Two policy scenarios:

1. « More investments in motorways »1. « More investments in motorways »(modal shift policies have been inefficient(modal shift policies have been inefficient;; long-long-term traffic forecasts are alarming)term traffic forecasts are alarming)

2. Decoupling economic development from 2. Decoupling economic development from mobility of people and goods » mobility of people and goods » (restrictions of road and air transport and (restrictions of road and air transport and implementation of the Lisbon strategy)implementation of the Lisbon strategy)

EnergyEnergy

Two prospective scenarios :Two prospective scenarios :

« « Europe in a context of high energy Europe in a context of high energy priceprice»: strong and sustained increase »: strong and sustained increase in energy price, but no oil scarcityin energy price, but no oil scarcity

« « Europe after oil peakingEurope after oil peaking »: peaking »: peaking of oil production at world scale and oil of oil production at world scale and oil scarcityscarcity

Rural developmentRural developmentTwo prospective scenarios:Two prospective scenarios:

1.1. « Open market »« Open market »(liberalisation of international markets; (liberalisation of international markets; reduction of tariff barriers; increasing reduction of tariff barriers; increasing agricultural productivity; weak rural agricultural productivity; weak rural development policy)development policy)

2. « Sustainable rurality »2. « Sustainable rurality »(strong and integrated rural development (strong and integrated rural development policy)policy)

Climate changeClimate change

Two prospective scenarios:Two prospective scenarios:

- Scenario: “Scenario: “Repairing instead of preventingRepairing instead of preventing””Limitation of prevention measures because of their Limitation of prevention measures because of their costly and unpopular charactercostly and unpopular character

- Scenario “Scenario “Anticipation of climate change Anticipation of climate change through prevention measuresthrough prevention measures”” (Policy (Policy scenario)scenario)On the basis of lessons learnt from the past On the basis of lessons learnt from the past decade, systematic prevention measures are decade, systematic prevention measures are implemented in a variety of fields and are implemented in a variety of fields and are supported by EU policiessupported by EU policies

Territorial governanceTerritorial governance

Two prospective scenarios:Two prospective scenarios:

1.1. The EU level moves from a sectoral The EU level moves from a sectoral to a territorial governance approach; to a territorial governance approach; increasing role of regions in territorial increasing role of regions in territorial governancegovernance

2.2. Mainplayers in territorial governance Mainplayers in territorial governance are again the states; alliance with are again the states; alliance with municipalities; efficient control of EU municipalities; efficient control of EU policies by national governmentspolicies by national governments

EU enlargementEU enlargementCompetition between two objectives:Competition between two objectives:

- further EU enlargements;- further EU enlargements;- deepening of integration- deepening of integration

- Scenario “- Scenario “Europe as a market placeEurope as a market place””Further EU enlargements (EU with approx. 40 Further EU enlargements (EU with approx. 40

member states); Stopping further deepening of member states); Stopping further deepening of integration; renationalisation of some policiesintegration; renationalisation of some policies

- Scenario “- Scenario “Europe as a templeEurope as a temple””Deepening of integration taking place at the Deepening of integration taking place at the expense of further enlargements; Territorial expense of further enlargements; Territorial cohesion and sustainable development are major cohesion and sustainable development are major prioritiespriorities

Examples of territorial impacts Examples of territorial impacts and policy messagesand policy messages

Scenario on population ageing “Silver Scenario on population ageing “Silver century”:century”:

Territorial impacts:Territorial impacts:

Retirement in areas with good access to Retirement in areas with good access to services (health, culture) and with high services (health, culture) and with high security (lower crime rates);security (lower crime rates);

Growing spatial differentiation by Growing spatial differentiation by generation: concentration of retired people generation: concentration of retired people in rural areas; concentration of active in rural areas; concentration of active population in towns and metropolitan areas;population in towns and metropolitan areas;

Policy messages:Policy messages: Need to elaborate solutions to the Need to elaborate solutions to the

growing demand for specific services growing demand for specific services for aged people both in cities and in for aged people both in cities and in a number of rural areas;a number of rural areas;

Need to increase the education level Need to increase the education level of young generations, in particular of of young generations, in particular of the less qualified (increasing demand the less qualified (increasing demand for qualified people in replacement of for qualified people in replacement of retired people);retired people);

Need to increase workforce Need to increase workforce participation (women, unemployed);participation (women, unemployed);

Need to increase labour productivityNeed to increase labour productivity

Scenario: “Non-mastered Scenario: “Non-mastered integration”integration”

Territorial impacts:Territorial impacts: Increasing social segregation and insecurity in cities;Increasing social segregation and insecurity in cities; The better offs leave the large cities as residential The better offs leave the large cities as residential

location and commute by private carslocation and commute by private cars Increasing degradation of facilities and housing in Increasing degradation of facilities and housing in

poor urban areas;poor urban areas; Development of “gated communities” near large Development of “gated communities” near large

cities and in tourist areas.cities and in tourist areas.

Policy messages:Policy messages: Pro-active immigration policy without strong Pro-active immigration policy without strong

integration policy is counterproductive, not only integration policy is counterproductive, not only economically and socially, but also in territorial terms. economically and socially, but also in territorial terms. It works against sustainable spatial developmentIt works against sustainable spatial development

Energy scenariosEnergy scenariosTerritorial impacts:Territorial impacts:- Before oil production peaking:- Before oil production peaking: Move of population towards southern and coastal Move of population towards southern and coastal

regions (climate)regions (climate) Reduction of mobility by car (more compact cities)Reduction of mobility by car (more compact cities) Reorganisation of production/consumption systems Reorganisation of production/consumption systems

at intermediate scale (reduction of transport costs)at intermediate scale (reduction of transport costs) Competition in the use of agricultural land between Competition in the use of agricultural land between

food and energy production (biofuels);food and energy production (biofuels); Impacts of wind energy facilities on landscapesImpacts of wind energy facilities on landscapes

- After oil production peaking:- After oil production peaking: Decreasing attractiveness of large cities (economic Decreasing attractiveness of large cities (economic

and social problems)and social problems) Move of new unemployed towards rural areas Move of new unemployed towards rural areas

(subsistence)(subsistence)

Policy messages:Policy messages:

Increasing oil price makes investments Increasing oil price makes investments profitable (further oil exploration, alternative profitable (further oil exploration, alternative energy sources, energy savings…);energy sources, energy savings…);

The probability of conflicting policy The probability of conflicting policy objectives is high (for example: nuclear objectives is high (for example: nuclear energy/increasing safety; wind energy/increasing safety; wind energy/landscape protection);energy/landscape protection);

The probability of oil production peaking is The probability of oil production peaking is 100% sure; uncertainty only about the date;100% sure; uncertainty only about the date;

Alternative energy sources and energy Alternative energy sources and energy savings should become a strong priority of savings should become a strong priority of public policiespublic policies

Climate changeClimate changeScenario “Repairing instead of Scenario “Repairing instead of

preventing”preventing”Territorial impacts:Territorial impacts: Increasing disparities between northern and southern Increasing disparities between northern and southern

regions (agriculture, tourism);regions (agriculture, tourism); Devitalisation of rural areas in southern Europe Devitalisation of rural areas in southern Europe

(declining agricultural production, depopulation, (declining agricultural production, depopulation, deterioration of landscapes and forests);deterioration of landscapes and forests);

Stronger pressure on rural areas of northern Europe Stronger pressure on rural areas of northern Europe (agriculture, tourism);(agriculture, tourism);

Changes in migration flows between north and south;Changes in migration flows between north and south; Deterioration of assets and settlements in areas Deterioration of assets and settlements in areas

prone to floodsprone to floodsPolicy messages:Policy messages: The absence of prevention measures in a context of The absence of prevention measures in a context of

accelerating climate change is likely to generate accelerating climate change is likely to generate significant costs in the long range which will be significant costs in the long range which will be higher than the costs of prevention measureshigher than the costs of prevention measures

Basic features: Multi-thematic scenarios, using Basic features: Multi-thematic scenarios, using the scenario bases and parts of the thematic the scenario bases and parts of the thematic scenarios as well as further foresight scenarios as well as further foresight investigationsinvestigations

Common background: all integrated scenarios Common background: all integrated scenarios have a common background, considered as have a common background, considered as unavoidable in the period 2005-2030:unavoidable in the period 2005-2030:

- Population ageing- Population ageing- Accelerating globalisation- Accelerating globalisation- Increasing energy price and changing energy - Increasing energy price and changing energy paradigmparadigm- Growing negative impacts of climate change- Growing negative impacts of climate change

Second phase: Integrated scenariosSecond phase: Integrated scenarios

Differentiation between the integrated Differentiation between the integrated scenarios:scenarios:Differentiation results from different hypotheses Differentiation results from different hypotheses concerning a number of specific policies related to concerning a number of specific policies related to alternative (or joint) priorities (cohesion, alternative (or joint) priorities (cohesion, competitiveness, integration etc.)competitiveness, integration etc.)

Principles of elaborationPrinciples of elaboration

- The integrated scenarios are qualitative scenarios - The integrated scenarios are qualitative scenarios supported by a number of quantitative models and supported by a number of quantitative models and projections (used for instance for quantifying projections (used for instance for quantifying indicators)indicators)

- The qualitative scenarios will produce spatially - The qualitative scenarios will produce spatially differentiated results and information going farther differentiated results and information going farther than model outputs and projections, both in terms of than model outputs and projections, both in terms of themes considered and of territorial impactsthemes considered and of territorial impacts

Baseline ScenarioBaseline Scenario

Basic hypothesesBasic hypotheses

Continuation of trends and no major Continuation of trends and no major changes in policies applied (but changes in policies applied (but including recent policies, such as the including recent policies, such as the enforcement of the Kyoto enforcement of the Kyoto Agreement)Agreement)

Demography : Demography :

- Fertility down and mortality down => population - Fertility down and mortality down => population ageingageing

- Total European population stable (+ enlargement)- Total European population stable (+ enlargement)- Increasing, but globally controlled external - Increasing, but globally controlled external

migration migration

Economy : Economy :

- constant, but modest economic growth- constant, but modest economic growth- slowly increasing total activity rate- slowly increasing total activity rate- slowly growing R&D expenditure, but constant - slowly growing R&D expenditure, but constant

technological gap to USAtechnological gap to USA- decreasing public expenditure  - decreasing public expenditure 

Energy :Energy :

- steady increase of energy prices- steady increase of energy prices- consumption stable/decreasing- consumption stable/decreasing- increase of the use of renewables- increase of the use of renewables

Transport :Transport :

- continued growth of all traffic categories, but - continued growth of all traffic categories, but curbed down by energy price, energy saving curbed down by energy price, energy saving measures and Kyoto Agreement, with measures and Kyoto Agreement, with possible modal shift possible modal shift - constant increase of infrastructure - constant increase of infrastructure endowmentendowment

Rural DevelopmentRural Development

- further liberalisation of international - further liberalisation of international tradetrade

- reduction of CAP budget- reduction of CAP budget

- increased industrialisation of - increased industrialisation of agricultural productionagricultural production

- further diversification of functions of - further diversification of functions of rural areasrural areas

- strong dualisation of rural areas, - strong dualisation of rural areas, however attenuated by the however attenuated by the production of biofuelsproduction of biofuels

Socio-cultural sectorSocio-cultural sector

- - increasing polarisation between socio-cultural increasing polarisation between socio-cultural groupsgroups

- growing socio-cultural (ethnic, religious, and - growing socio-cultural (ethnic, religious, and social) tensionssocial) tensions

Governance :Governance :

- - increasing cooperation between cross-border increasing cooperation between cross-border regionsregions- increase in multi-level and cross-sectoral - increase in multi-level and cross-sectoral approaches, but limited to specific programmes approaches, but limited to specific programmes (rural development);(rural development);- maintain of competition and incoherence - maintain of competition and incoherence between policies devoted to innovation / between policies devoted to innovation / competitiveness and others devoted to cohesion competitiveness and others devoted to cohesion

Climate change :Climate change :

- - Moderate overall climate change until 2030 Moderate overall climate change until 2030 (+1°)(+1°)

- Increase of extreme local events- Increase of extreme local events- Constant emission levels- Constant emission levels- Few (too little) structural adaptation measures - Few (too little) structural adaptation measures

Enlargement :Enlargement :

- by 2008 Bulgaria & Romania- by 2008 Bulgaria & Romania- by 2020 Western Balkans- by 2020 Western Balkans- by 2030 Turkey- by 2030 Turkey- continued combination of deepening and - continued combination of deepening and

wideningwideningenlargement of Eurozoneenlargement of Eurozone

Integrated scenario “Competitive Integrated scenario “Competitive Europe through liberalisation”Europe through liberalisation”

Basic hypotheses:Basic hypotheses:

- - In-depth revision of public In-depth revision of public interventions, in particular at EU interventions, in particular at EU level;level;- General reduction of EU budget; - General reduction of EU budget; targeting of EU interventions towards targeting of EU interventions towards R&D and education, ICT, strategic R&D and education, ICT, strategic external accessibility at the expense external accessibility at the expense of CAP and Structural Policiesof CAP and Structural Policies

Demography :Demography :- increase in selective (economic sectors & - increase in selective (economic sectors & destination) immigrationdestination) immigration

- abolishment of constraints to internal - abolishment of constraints to internal migrationmigration

- increase in retirement age- increase in retirement age

- encouraging fertility rate through fiscal - encouraging fertility rate through fiscal incentivesincentives

Socio-cultural sector :Socio-cultural sector :

- - reactive social problem management in large reactive social problem management in large citiescities

- increase of surveillance and security systems- increase of surveillance and security systems

Economy :Economy :

- reduction of total public expenditure- reduction of total public expenditure- further privatisation and liberalization of public - further privatisation and liberalization of public servicesservices- priority of public expenditures to R&D, education, - priority of public expenditures to R&D, education, ICT and strategic external accessibility (ICT and ICT and strategic external accessibility (ICT and transport)transport)- more and easily accessible venture capital- more and easily accessible venture capital- flexibilisation of labour markets- flexibilisation of labour markets

Energy :Energy :- realisation of TEN – E: investments in infrastructure - realisation of TEN – E: investments in infrastructure according to market demandaccording to market demand- priority to alternative (non-based on oil and gas), - priority to alternative (non-based on oil and gas), large-scale energy production for metropolitan areaslarge-scale energy production for metropolitan areas

Transport :Transport :

- - realisation of TEN-T: investments in realisation of TEN-T: investments in infrastructure according to market demandinfrastructure according to market demand

- priority to links between metropolitan areas- priority to links between metropolitan areas

Rural Development :Rural Development :

- - rapid and radical liberalisation of CAP rapid and radical liberalisation of CAP (reduction of tariffs, budget and export (reduction of tariffs, budget and export subsidies)subsidies)

- reduction of rural development policy- reduction of rural development policy

- rapid industrialisation of agricultural - rapid industrialisation of agricultural productionproduction

Governance :Governance :

- abolishing barriers to cross-border cooperation- abolishing barriers to cross-border cooperation- less public intervention- less public intervention- reinforcement of the Open Method of - reinforcement of the Open Method of CoordinationCoordination- increasing role of private sector in decision - increasing role of private sector in decision makingmaking- strengthening of the third pillar (foreign policy, - strengthening of the third pillar (foreign policy, justice, security, ...) of the EU policiesjustice, security, ...) of the EU policies

Climate Change :Climate Change :

- mitigation measures based on flexible - mitigation measures based on flexible schemes & stimulation of alternative schemes & stimulation of alternative technologies.technologies.- adaptation measures only where cost efficient- adaptation measures only where cost efficient

Enlargement :Enlargement :

- Continuing enlargement to widen the - Continuing enlargement to widen the market:market:

- Romania, Bulgaria 2008- Romania, Bulgaria 2008

- Western Balkan 2015- Western Balkan 2015

- Turkey 2020, possibly Ukraine- Turkey 2020, possibly Ukraine

- Strengthening of the neighbourhood - Strengthening of the neighbourhood policy (Maghreb, Russia etc.)policy (Maghreb, Russia etc.)

Integrated scenario “Socio-Integrated scenario “Socio-economically and territorially economically and territorially

cohesive Europe”cohesive Europe”

Basic hypotheses:Basic hypotheses:

- Strong EU cohesion policy- Strong EU cohesion policy

- Structural policies integrate - Structural policies integrate competitiveness objectivescompetitiveness objectives

Demography :Demography :

- - restrictive external migration policiesrestrictive external migration policies- more flexible retirement ages- more flexible retirement ages- encouraging fertility rates (=> encourage better - encouraging fertility rates (=> encourage better balance of population structure)balance of population structure)- more flexible arrangements for child care - more flexible arrangements for child care

Economy :Economy :

- maintaining importance of EU budget- maintaining importance of EU budget- reinforcement and strong focus of structural - reinforcement and strong focus of structural funds on weakest regionsfunds on weakest regions- further harmonization of taxation and social - further harmonization of taxation and social security systems, as far as non detrimental to the security systems, as far as non detrimental to the competitiveness of less developed countries  :competitiveness of less developed countries  :

Socio-cultural :Socio-cultural :

- promotion of regional and European - promotion of regional and European identitiesidentities- integration of marginal groups (ex: - integration of marginal groups (ex: gypsies, etc) in peripheral areasgypsies, etc) in peripheral areas- proactive socio-cultural integration policies- proactive socio-cultural integration policies- increased fiscal and/or social investment in - increased fiscal and/or social investment in quality of life issues (health, personal care, quality of life issues (health, personal care, local environment, etc...) local environment, etc...)

Energy :Energy :

- realisation of TEN-E- realisation of TEN-E- promotion of decentralised energy - promotion of decentralised energy production (in particular renewables) production (in particular renewables)

Transport :Transport :- - development of TEN-T with priority to development of TEN-T with priority to peripheral regions at different scalesperipheral regions at different scales

- support to transport services in rural and - support to transport services in rural and less developed regions less developed regions

Governance :Governance :

- - active multi-level territorial governance, in active multi-level territorial governance, in particular in areas supported by structural particular in areas supported by structural fundsfunds

- strong role of public actors in territorial - strong role of public actors in territorial governancegovernance

- stronger role for the European Commission- stronger role for the European Commission

Rural Development :Rural Development :- minor CAP reforms, but shift from - minor CAP reforms, but shift from pillar 1 to pillar 2. Priority to less pillar 1 to pillar 2. Priority to less developed rural regions in the field of developed rural regions in the field of direct payments to farmers (pillar 1)direct payments to farmers (pillar 1)- priority to environmental and animal - priority to environmental and animal health criteria;health criteria;- slow industrialisation and moderate - slow industrialisation and moderate diversification of agricultural diversification of agricultural production, promotion of quality production, promotion of quality productsproducts- active policy for diversification of - active policy for diversification of rural areas, including SMEs, tourism, rural areas, including SMEs, tourism, residential functions etc. residential functions etc.

Climate Change :Climate Change :

- strict mitigation measures (taxes, road - strict mitigation measures (taxes, road pricing as far as non detrimental to pricing as far as non detrimental to peripheral regions)peripheral regions)

- wide range of adaptation measures (EU - wide range of adaptation measures (EU hazard funds, large investments)hazard funds, large investments)

Enlargement :Enlargement :

- break on further enlargement (except - break on further enlargement (except Bulgaria & Romania, but will enter later than Bulgaria & Romania, but will enter later than foreseen)foreseen)

- only lip service to neighbourhood policy- only lip service to neighbourhood policy

Hypotheses for the “desirable”roll-Hypotheses for the “desirable”roll-back scenario:back scenario:

Two possibilities:Two possibilities:

- Starting from an ideal image of the Starting from an ideal image of the European territory and investigating the European territory and investigating the possibilities of achieving it through possibilities of achieving it through policies;policies;

- or starting from a set of policies combining or starting from a set of policies combining cohesion and competitiveness and cohesion and competitiveness and investigating its impacts on the territory investigating its impacts on the territory until the final image looks “desirable”until the final image looks “desirable”