Renewables in Transport: Options and Opportunities Conference on Biofuels in the Transport Sector Bavarian Representation to the European Union 28 September 2017 Jeff Skeer IRENA
Renewables in
Transport:
Options and
Opportunities
Conference on Biofuels
in the Transport Sector
Bavarian Representation
to the European Union
28 September 2017
Jeff Skeer
IRENA
Two Main RE Opportunities in Transport
• Renewable Power to Electrify Road Vehicles,
better batteries bringing greater EV range
mass production lowering EV purchase costs,
operating costs lower for EVs than oil-fueled vehicles
GHG emissions lower for EVs even with fossil-fueled
power, decline sharply as RE generating share grows
• Liquid Biofuels for Aviation and Marine Shipping
High power needs require fuel with high energy density
Liquid biofuels can be produced from many feedstocks
Advanced liquid biofuels from lignocellulosic feedstocks
can compete by 2030-40 at expected oil and CO2 prices.
2
Energy Use by Transport Mode (2015)
3
Energy Intensity of Transport Modes
4
Already Electric Transport Is Gaining Ground
5
Electric Vehicles Rapidly Expanding
6
Demand Driven by Blending – How Long?
7
Number of
Countries Range of
Mandates Comments
Africa 11 2% - 20% Mostly for bioethanol, ranging
from 2% in South Africa to 20% in
Malawi, many countries at 10%.
Americas 14 2% - 27% Canada and USA policies based
on fuel carbon intensity and
volumes, not blending mandates.
Asia 9 1% - 20%
Range from 1% biodiesel in
Taiwan to 20% in Indonesia.
Europe 22 3% - 10% Most have blending mandates,
others have carbon intensity
targets or carbon taxes.
Oceania 2 2% - 10% Australian mandates are at the
state level, not national.
A Gradual Generational Shift
• REmap Analysis for 2030
Biofuels in transport should quadruple to 12 EJ in 2030,
with nearly 75% (9 EJ) from conventional sources (so a
quarter of biofuel supply could be “second generation”).
• REmap Decarbonisation Analysis for 2050
Biofuels in transport should grow 8-fold to 25 EJ in 2050,
with nearly 50% (12 EJ) from conventional sources (so
half the biofuel supply could be “second generation”).
8
Projected Renewable Energy in 2050
9
RE Transport Vision 2050
• Around 30% of transport energy demend is electric.
1.3 billion electric vehicles in stock on the road.
50 million electric delivery trucks sold 2015-2050
High-speed electric trains for long-distance travel
Self-driving EV taxis, buses, delivery vans
• Ten-fold increase in liquid and gaseous biofuels
1,000 billion litres of liquid biofuels
…of which 500 billion litres advanced biofuels
…of which 300 billion liters advanced aviation fuel
200 billion cubic metres of biogas
10
GHG Emissions for Different Biofuels
11
Reduced Air Pollution in Transport by 2030
12
Trends and Data Supporting the Projections
• Renewable Power to Electrify Road Vehicles,
Costs of renewable electricity have sharply declined.
Renewable generating capacity is rapidly increasing.
Uptake of electric vehicles is accelerating.
• Liquid Biofuels for Aviation and Marine Shipping
RD&D is creating cost-competitive options.
(However, RD&D investment needs to pick up.)
There is a great deal of sustainable bioenergy potential.
13
Falling Costs of Renewable Electricity
14
Expanding Renewable Electric Generation
15
Advanced Liquid Biofuels – Cost Comparison
16
Advanced Biofuels – Investment Stagnating
17
Pockets of Sustainable Bioenergy
• Agriculture
Residues associated with growing food production
Higher yields on cropland (sustainable intensification)
Efficient livestock husbandry: freeing up pastureland
Reduced food losses and waste: freeing up farmland
• Forestry
Residues (complementary fellings on timberland)
Higher yields in planted forests (better management)
Afforestation of degraded forest and marginal lands
18
Yield Gap: Illustrated by Maize
19
Ratio of Actual to Potential Yield for Maize (Year 2000)
Source: Global Agro-Ecological Zones
Pastureland (3.4 billion ha)
Cropland (1.5 billion ha)
Agricultural Land (Billion Hectares)
0
% D
ieta
ry p
rote
in
20
40
60
80
100
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
% H
arv
este
d C
rop
s
20
40
60
80
100 1.4 billion ha prime & good
1.5 billion ha marginal & very
Could possibly grow some energy crops adapted to saline or desert conditions
70 million ha more for food
by 2050 (FAO) Could be more suitable for energy crops than food crops
Pastureland Available Globally for Biofuel Crops
Best Practice Losses by Food Chain Stage
21
Food Type Agricultural
Production
Postharvest
Handling &
Storage
Processing
and
Packaging
Distribution:
Supermarket
Retail
Consumption
Cereals 2% 2% 3.5% 2% 1%
Roots &
Tubers
6% 7% 10% 3% 2%
Oilseeds &
Pulses
6% 0% 5% 1% 1%
Fruits &
Vegetables
10% 4% 2% 8% 5%
Meat 2.9% 0.2% 5% 4% 2%
Milk 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Degraded Landscape Restoration
22
Potential Land for Solid Biomass
• Closing the Yield Gap: 550 M ha
• Better Use of Pasture Land: 950 M ha
• Reduced Food Chain Losses: 270 M ha
• Landscape Restoration: 350 M ha
• TOTAL: OVER 2 BILLION HECTARES, 300 EJ
23
Farm and Forest Residues
• Farm Residues (46-95 EJ of bioenergy)
• Forest Management (27 EJ of bioenergy)
• Forest Residues and Waste (15-30 EJ of bioenergy)
• Modern Cookstoves (8-17 EJ of bioenergy conserved)
24
How Large Is the Biofuel Potential?
25
Category
Primary
Biomass
Energy
Content
End Use Bioenergy
with 1st/3rd
Generation Biofuel
or Combined Heat
and Power
(80% Efficiency)
End Use
Bioenergy with
2d Generation
Biofuel
Conversion
(40% Efficiency)
REMAP 2030
Assumptions
for Primary
Biomass
Energy
(Reference)
Agricultural Residues 46 - 95 EJ 36 - 76 EJ 18 - 38 EJ 19 - 48 EJ
Cultivating Forests 83 - 141 EJ 66 - 112 EJ 33 - 56 EJ 41 - 58 EJ
Subtotal A 128 - 236 EJ 102 – 188 EJ 51 – 94 EJ 60 –106 EJ
Higher Crop Yields 47 - 88 EJ 37 - 70 EJ 19 - 35 EJ 0 EJ
Pasture Land 71 - 142 EJ 57 - 114 EJ 28 - 57 EJ 33 - 39 EJ
Reduced Food Waste 40 - 83 EJ 32 - 66 EJ 16 - 33 EJ 18 EJ
Subtotal B 159 – 313 EJ 126 – 250 EJ 63 – 125 EJ 51 – 57 EJ
Total 287 - 549 EJ 228 - 438 EJ 114-219 EJ 112-162 EJ
26
Bioenergy for Sustainable Development
IRENA – International Renewable Energy Agency
http://www.irena.org/
IEA Bioenergy – International Energy Agency
Technology Collaboration Programme on Bioenergy
http://www.ieabioenergy.com/
FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
http://www.fao.org/