Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space, Illustrated by Examples from Future Energy Systems by Gerrit Muller USN-SE e-mail: [email protected]www.gaudisite.nl Abstract In the search for appropriate solutions, architects and stakeholders need ways to reason about concepts and their impact. The understanding, communication, and reasoning facilitates decision making. In this keynote, we explore conceptual models as the means to achieve all of these needs. We will make the abstract notion of conceptual models concrete by using future energy systems as an appli- cation area. Renewable energy systems have to help in solving the global sustain- ability development goals, especially the energy transition. The dynamics of both supply and demand of energy increases the complexity of the future energy systems. Distribution This article or presentation is written as part of the Gaudí project. The Gaudí project philosophy is to improve by obtaining frequent feedback. Frequent feedback is pursued by an open creation process. This document is published as intermediate or nearly mature version to get feedback. Further distribution is allowed as long as the document remains complete and unchanged. April 4, 2021 status: preliminary draft version: 0
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Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and SolutionSpace, Illustrated by Examples from Future Energy Systems
In the search for appropriate solutions, architects and stakeholders need waysto reason about concepts and their impact. The understanding, communication,and reasoning facilitates decision making. In this keynote, we explore conceptualmodels as the means to achieve all of these needs. We will make the abstractnotion of conceptual models concrete by using future energy systems as an appli-cation area. Renewable energy systems have to help in solving the global sustain-ability development goals, especially the energy transition. The dynamics ofboth supply and demand of energy increases the complexity of the future energysystems.
Distribution
This article or presentation is written as part of the Gaudí project. The Gaudí projectphilosophy is to improve by obtaining frequent feedback. Frequent feedback is pursued by anopen creation process. This document is published as intermediate or nearly mature versionto get feedback. Further distribution is allowed as long as the document remains completeand unchanged.
April 4, 2021status: preliminarydraftversion: 0
Figure of Content
Conceptual Modeling Case
basic models
dynamics
cost
line of reasoning
conceptual modeling
reflection
Renewable Energy
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space2 Gerrit Muller
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As-Is: System Model Calculates Optimum
black box
energy system model
trace of offshore
wind data
traces of onshore
weather data
traces of
consumption patterns
optimal configuration
and sizes
CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE
component data
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space3 Gerrit Muller
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CMEPSblackBoxModel
Problem: No Understanding, No Reasoning
Designers explore and find an optimum,
however, they lack understanding.
· How sensitive is the model for parameter or data changes?
· How do we reason about use cases?
· How do we reason about options and risks?
· What happens when we make wrong assumptions?
black box
energy system model
trace of offshore
wind data
traces of onshore
weather data
traces of
consumption patterns
optimal configuration
and sizes
CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE
component data
User: (WT-shared) Texugo at wts wikivoyage, CC BY-SA 1.0
<https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/1.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
Remember Texas in
the winter of 2021?
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space4 Gerrit Muller
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CMEPSproblem
A Model of the As-Is Energy System
physical fossil systems
virtual fossil systems virtual electricity systems
physical electricity systems
Extract
resources
Store
Transport
Process
Store
Transmit
Distribute
Convert
Use
financial
control
legal
control
technical
control
logistics
control
financial
control
legal
control
technical
control
logistics
control
Generate
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space5 Gerrit Muller
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SOSREgenericElectricity
Main Questions about the Renewable Energy System
What is an appropriate configuration and sizing of
generation, transmission, distribution, storage, and
demand control
to obtain a sustainable, robust, reliable, and affordable
energy system?
What legal, financial, logistics, and technical
control strategies and measures
do we need to operate these resources effectively?
virtual electricity systems
physical electricity systems
Store
Transmit
Distribute
Convert
Use
financial
control
legal
control
technical
control
logistics
control
Generate
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space6 Gerrit Muller
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CMEPSquestionsMeta0
What Architecting Means do we need?
What methods, techniques, formalisms, models, and tools
will help us to create and explore problem and solution space
to understand, communicate, reason, and facilitate decision making,
with many diverse stakeholders and
a large set of complicated technology options,
ranging from idea stage to fully mature,
in a complex natural environment?
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space7 Gerrit Muller
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CMEPSquestionsMeta1
Conceptual Modeling
Conceptual Modeling Case
basic models
dynamics
cost
line of reasoning
conceptual modeling
reflection
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CMEPSlogoConceptualModeling
First Principle Models
First principle model: a model based
on theoretical principles.
A first principle model explains the
desired property from first principles
from the laws of physics.
A first principle model requires values
for incoming parameters to calculate
results.
first principle model ttop floor elevator
s
t
v
t
a
tta tatv
v = dS
dta =
dv
dtj =
da
dt
Position in case of uniform acceleration:
St = S0 + v0t + a0t21
2
ttop floor = ta + tv + ta
ta = vmax / amax
S(ta) = 1
2* amax * ta
2
Slinear = Stop floor - 2 * S(ta)
tv = Slinear / vmax
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SEFSMMfirstPrinciple
Empirical Models
empirical model tmove elevator
Empirical model: a model based on
observations and measurements.
An empirical model describes the
observations.
An empirical model provides no
understanding.
10
20
5
15
10
30floors
meters
tmove = a * n + b
ba
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space10 Gerrit Muller
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SEFSMMempirical
Conceptual Models
conceptual model tmove elevator
Conceptual model: a model
explaining observations and
measurements using a selection of
first principles.
A conceptual model is a hybrid of
empirical and first principle models;
simple enough to understand and to
reason, realistic enough to make
sense.
10
20
5
15
10
30floors
meters
tmove = vmax * n + bstart/stop
bstart/stop
a
s
t
v
t
a
tta tatj tj tj tj
S1 S4S0 S2S3 S5
bstart/stop = f(acceleration, jerk)
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space11 Gerrit Muller
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MAPMconceptual
Mental Models
mental models of an elevatorMental Models are models in our
human brains. These models depend
entirely on the individual and his/her
background
Mental models help us to think.
Individuals may have a verbal or
visual orientation, they may think in
concrete or abstract ways, etc.
safety
elevator standards
compliance
UL certification
norm xyz
s
t
v
t
a
tta tatj tj tj tj
S1 S4S0 S2S3 S5
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space12 Gerrit Muller
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SEFSMMmental
Simulations
simulation of an elevatorSimulation: an executable model
based on first principle and empirical
models.
Designers run simulations to explore,
analyze, and gain insights.
A simulation provides understanding,
when the users transform the
outcomes into insights.
dt 0.2 s
vmax 2.5 m/s
amax 1 m/s2
t (s) s (m) v (m/s) a (m/s2)
0 0 0 1
0.2 0.02 0.2 1
0.4 0.08 0.4 1
0.6 0.18 0.6 1
0.8 0.32 0.8 1
1 0.50 1 1
1.2 0.72 1.2 1
1.4 0.98 1.4 1
1.6 1.28 1.6 1
1.8 1.62 1.8 1
2 2.00 2 1
2.2 2.42 2.2 1
2.4 2.88 2.4 1
2.6 3.38 2.6 0
2.8 3.90 2.6 0
3 4.42 2.6 0
3.2 4.94 2.6 0
3.4 5.46 2.6 00
1
2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
a [m/s2]
0
1
2
3
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
v [m/s]0
1
2
3
4
5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
S [m]
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space13 Gerrit Muller
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SEFSMMsimulation
Product Structure and Documentation
product structure of an elevatorThe Product Structure prescribes the
parts hierarchy. Each part in the
hierarchy has associated
documentation and information for
the entire life cycle.
The Product Structure and associated
documentation help the organization to
manage all processes from creation to
decommissioning and recycling, via
ERP, PDM, PLM etc. systems.
elevator
shaft cables cage engine control
doors
lighting
frame
walls
floor
ceiling
climate
UI
documentationspecs
design manufacturing
procurement
transportationverification
acceptance
installation
configuration
commissioning
maintenance
diagnosis
training
sales
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space14 Gerrit Muller
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SEFSMMstructure
Map of Various Model Types
mental models
the actual system in
its context
· infinitely complex
· dynamic
· evolving
· nature and humans
conceptual models
· understanding
· reasoning
· communication
digital twin
· as simulation
· using actual data
· real-time control
· health monitoring
simulation
· compressed time
· look inside
· many and extreme
circumstances
· what if ...
hybrid, e.g. SIL, HIL
· partially closer to
reality
configuration and
version (ERP, PDM)
documentation
· static information
· prescribes,
describes system
“Reality” “Abstractions”
simplifications
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space15 Gerrit Muller
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SEFSMMmap
Case
Conceptual Modeling Case
basic models
dynamics
cost
line of reasoning
conceptual modeling
reflection
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space16 Gerrit Muller
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CMEPSlogoCase
Starting Point: Irish Energy Data
Michael 1952, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/12/30/teslas-new-lithium-ion-patent-brings-company-closer-to-promised-1-million-mile-battery/7 40000 hours at −35 °C to 40 °C, ~12 years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell
8assuming 10 years
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72399.pdf
~ EWF
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space28 Gerrit Muller
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RESScostModel
Energy Cost; Curtailment is Lower in Cost!
wind farm
0.061
€/kWh
H2 storage
0.211 €/kWhH2 storage
~ 0.48 €/kWh
(over) sizing
wind
with curtailing
assuming 70% * 60% = 42% efficiency
Electrolyzer
0.147
€/kWh
Battery
0.058
€/kWh
wind farm
0.072
€/kWh
H2 storage
0.161
€/kWh
~ 0.35 €/kWh
Electro-
lyzer
0.053
€/kWh
Battery
0.058
€/kWh
electrolyzer Fuel Cell
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space29 Gerrit Muller
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RESScostH2only
Energy Cost as Function of H2 Size
22
3
34
4
56
1
49
5
13
83
12
7
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
€/k
Wh
no
cu
rta
ilme
nt
wind
electrolyzer
H2 storage
Battery
MW electrolyzer
capacity
“Optimum” for 2017, 2018
and the used data for cost etc.
This exploration provides insight
in the trade-off between
oversizing wind and
sizing Hydrogen
We do not yet know how it
behaves in other use cases. Or
what happens when we add
other options.
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space30 Gerrit Muller
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RESScostAsFunctionOfH2size
Figure of Content
Conceptual Modeling Case
basic models
dynamics
cost
line of reasoning
conceptual modeling
reflection
Conceptual Modeling to Explore Problem and Solution Space31 Gerrit Muller
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CMEPSlogoReflection
Case Summary
context and application design and technology
functional model
compress
H2
store H2 in
tank
electrolyze
into H2
convert H2
into
electricity
H2O O2
LEl
H2OO2
LFC
EEl
Ecomp
Lcomp
EWF
EFC
consume
energyLconsume
Econsume
store/retrieve
fast
(battery)
store/retrieve
very fast
(supercapacitor)
ESC outEbat outEbat in ESC in
Lcurtail
decompress
H2
LH2leak
Lbatinout Lbatleak
Ldecomp
export import
EimportEexport LSC
convert
wind into
electricity
LimpLexp
dynamics years
Ein
Eout
FJ M A M J J A O N D FJ M A M J J A O N DSS
flow scenarios
1
G2 C2
B
G3 C3
curtail
G4 C4
demand
control
C5G5
physical
block
diagram
wind farm
H2 storage
tank
H2
electrolyzer
H2
compressor
H2 fuel cell
battery
energy
consumers
electric grid
H2
super
conductorscontrol
seconds..
minuteshours..days
months
H2 de-
compressor
transmission
grid
connector
wind energy data
Michael 1952, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>