COMT Project meeting Ecological Forecasting, Existing status of CBEPS (Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System), Future developments of CBEPS, Plan for update of ROMS physics and biogeochemistry Raleigh Hood, Christopher Brown, Wen Long, Jiangtao Xu, John Jacobs, Bob Wood, Xinsheng Zhang, Jerry Wiggert, M. Bala Krishna Prasad, Lyon Lanerolle, and Hao Wang iginally Funded by the NOAA Ecological Forecasting and MERHAB progra
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COMT Project meeting Ecological Forecasting, Existing status of CBEPS (Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System), Future developments of CBEPS, Plan.
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COMT Project meeting
Ecological Forecasting, Existing status of CBEPS (Chesapeake Bay Ecological
Prediction System), Future developments of CBEPS, Plan for update of ROMS
physics and biogeochemistry
Raleigh Hood, Christopher Brown, Wen Long, Jiangtao Xu, John Jacobs, Bob Wood, Xinsheng Zhang, Jerry Wiggert, M. Bala Krishna Prasad, Lyon Lanerolle, and Hao Wang
Originally Funded by the NOAA Ecological Forecasting and MERHAB programs
Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting System (CBEPS): Overview, Status and Future Efforts
UMCES COMT Project Tasks:
1) Migrate ChesROMS to ROMS version 4.0
2) Update and publish ChesROMS BGC model
3) Generate 25-year hindcast full BGC run
4) Incorporate new ChesROMS into CBEPS and SourceForge
Outline:
Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting System (CBEPS): Overview, Status and Future Efforts
UMCES COMT Project Tasks:
1) Migrate ChesROMS to ROMS version 4.0
2) Update and publish ChesROMS BGC model
3) Generate 25-year hindcast full BGC run
4) Incorporate new ChesROMS into CBEPS and SourceForge
Outline:
CBEPS Motivation and Potential Applications:
At present, provide “operational” nowcasts and short-term (3-day) forecasts of Sea Nettle, HAB, pathogen and also physical and biogeochemical properties for research, management and public uses in Chesapeake Bay.
Sea Nettle forecasts have been transitioned to 24/7 true operational mode in NOAA using CBOFS.
Can be used to predict fish habitat quality.
There is potential to extend this system to include toxin and contaminant transport, transformation and even human exposure.
Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System and Model Framework (NCBO ->
UMCES) The core is a coupled hydrodynamic/biogeochemical model (ChesROMS) that is running “operationally” now at UMCES (formally supported by NOAA/NCBO).
Solution advanced daily using a perfect restart with ROMS version 3.0.
Baywide nowcasts and 3 day forecasts of temperature, salinity, biogeochemical properties and ecological forecasts (Sea Nettles, HABS and pathogens) are generated daily.
Use real time river discharge from USGS for nowcasts.
River flows persisted for 3 days for 3 day forecasts.
Atmospheric forcing for 3-day forecasts are from the North American Meteorological Model (NAM).
Use simple seasonal concentration climatologies combined with flow for BGC boundary conditions.
ChesROMS Implementation and Availability
Chesapeake Bay implementation of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS version 3.0).
Curvilinear horizontal grid (100 * 150).
Sigma-coordinate vertical grid (20 levels).
Includes all major tributaries.
Both hindcast and operational implementations.
Open Source (SourceForge).
ChesROMS Prototype Operational Biogeochemical Model
Based on Fennel et al. core model bundled with ROMS NPZD type model with oxic sediment denitrification Added DON ISS loading Atmospheric N deposition Diffuse N sources Anoxic benthic denitrification Water column denitrification,
Manuscript in preparation, Wiggert et al. (2014)
Four Empirical Habitat Models for Ecological Forecasts
• Karlodinium veneficum (Brown et al. 2013) Neural Network based on T and S, and time of year
• Vibrio cholera (Constantin de Magny et al., 2010)
• Sea Nettles (Decker et al, 2007)
logistic regression model, based on T and S
logistic regression model, based on T and S
• Vibrio vulnificus (Jacobs et al., 2010)
logistic regression model, based on T and S
Ecological Forecasts (Sea Nettles and V. vulnificus)
Sea Nettles (Chrysaora quinquecirrha) can become very abundant in Chesapeake Bay during summer and they sting people.
V. vulnificus infection is also a potential human health threat.
T and S strongly constrain sea nettle and V. vulnificus distributions.
Estimate (nowcast and forecast) T and S using ChesROMS.
Provides input to empirical logistic regression models that predicts probability of sea nettle and V. vulnificus occurrence.
Nowcasting/Forecasting Sea Nettles:
Brown et al. May 7th, 2012 nowcast
Nettle maps generated daily and posted on the WWW.
V. vulnificus maps are also generated but not currently posted publicly on the WWW.
Nowcasts.
3 day forecasts.
Probabilities are low bay wide for Sea Nettles and V. vulnificus (still too cold).