Top Banner
November 12, 2009 State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q3 2009 Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc. Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 24 hours of today’s webinar
47

ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

May 16, 2015

Download

Business

According to comScore in this 47 page overview:
"- We're seeing clear signs that we‟ve hit the bottom of the decline in e-commerce spending, and comScore expects some modest growth in the holiday season compared to last year
Consumers continue to be very cautious about their spending given concerns about:
* The job market/unemployment/lack of job creation
* Declines in housing prices/Underwater mortgages
* Lack of credit and too much debt
* Rising gas prices
- E-commerce continues to attract more buyers, but they are spending less than a year ago by completing fewer transactions and spending less per shopping trip
- Retailers are hiring fewer workers and carefully planning their inventory so as to avoid heavy discounting post-season
- The holiday season will likely be characterized by heavy discounts/price wars, promotions/couponing, an earlier start to the season and an increased use of digital marketing"
Source: comScore State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q3 2009.
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

November 12, 2009

State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q3 2009

Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc.

Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 24 hours of

today’s webinar

Page 2: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

2© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Data sourced from comScore‟s global panel of 2 million Internet

users

E-commerce data includes all worldwide buying on

U.S. sites

Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the term e-

commerce refers to online retail spending, which

excludes travel, autos and auction sites

Behavioral activity through September 2009

Survey issued in October 2009, n=1046

Consumer Measurements:

– Site Visitation

– Buying

– Mobile

– Payment Method

– Attitudes and Intentions

– Demographics

Retailer Views

– Multi-Channel vs. Pure Play

Media

Exposure

Online / Offline

Transactions

Search

Behavior

Demographics

Life Stages

Video

Web Visiting

and Viewing

360° View of Consumer Behavior Analysis Parameters

Page 3: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

3© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

DEMOGRAPHICS• Self-reported and validated

• Appended Segments (e.g. Claritas, Acxiom)

• Individual & Household Level

WEB VISITING & VIEWING• All Website/Page Click Stream

• Content Viewed

• Search Engine Queries

• Keyword Used

SURVEYS• Email or Contextual “Pops”

• Behavior-activated Surveys

• Observation of All Surveys Taken Across All Suppliers

ONLINE TRANSACTIONS• All Secure Session Activity

• Purchases and Subscriptions

• Price Paid, Shipping & Handling, Promotions

• Applications/Configurations

MARKETING STIMULI• Online Ads

• Referral Links

TV VIEWING• Link to Digital Set Top TV Data

Using Name & Address

comScore Customer Knowledge Platform:

A 360° View of 2 Million Global Internet Users

Designed to be representative of the online population

Projectable to the total U.S. population

TRUSTe certified for information privacy & security

OFFLINE PURCHASING• Linked using Name and Address

• Client CRM Databases

• Retailer Loyalty Card Data

Page 4: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

4© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

State of the Economy: A Review of Key

Macroeconomic Trends

Page 5: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

5© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Validation of comScore Sales Data:

Comparison of comScore data to U.S. Department of Commerce

Quarterly U.S. e-Commerce Sales ($ Billions)Source: comScore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)

comScore Estimate = (Total Non-Travel – Event Tickets +

Estimated Auction Fees and Autos)

Excludes travel and event tickets, but includes auction fees and

autos

Bil

lio

ns

($

)

% Change in e-Commerce Sales vs. YA

Q2 ‟08 Q3 ‟08 Q4 ‟08 Q1 ‟09 Q2 ‟09

U.S. Dept. of

Commerce9% 5% -5% -6% -5%

comScore 12% 5% -4% -3% -4%

Page 6: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

6© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

$72$93

$117$143

Non-

Travel

Travel

+29%

+26%

+22%

+20%

+26%

+33%

+26%

+26%

+20%

+24%+24%

+13%

$171

$200

+17%

+21%

+12%

+6%

+9%

+7%

Q1- Q3 retail e-commerce sales are down 1% versus year ago, while

travel sales are down 6%

$221

-1%

-6%

$153

-3%

e-Commerce Dollar Sales Growth ($ Billions)Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Page 7: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

7© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

We‟re seeing clear signs that we‟ve hit the bottom but still no positive

growth ….

Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation includes total retail and

food service sales, which also includes motor vehicles and parts dealers

Quarterly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YASource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth vs. YASource: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)

17%

23%19%

11%13%

6%

-3%0% -1% -2%

4% 4% 5% 4%

2% 1%

-8%-10% -9%

Page 8: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

8© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Sales trends through the third quarter of „09 mirror last year and

show no growth B

illi

on

s (

$)

$28.0$27.2

$28.4

$39.1

$31.2$30.6

$30.3

$38.1

$30.2 $29.6

e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions)Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Q4 '06 Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09

$31.0$33.0

+43% -15% -3% +5% +38% -20% -2% -1% +26% -18% -3% -2%% Chg

vs. Prior

Quarter

“Retail sales showed further signs of stabilization in October, according to new data from Mastercard‟s

SpendingPulse unit, but they're not posting the kind of gains that would significantly boost the economy.”

--WSJ Blogs, November 12, 2009

Page 9: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

9© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Income SegmentOnline Retail

Online Retail

SpendingUnder $50,000

Total

-5%

-2%

21%

Income Segment Online Retail Spending Bracket Share of

Change vs. YA Online Retail

$50,000 - $99,999 -1% 45%

$100,000 or more -3% 34%

100%

Q3 2009 e-Commerce Sales vs. YA by Income SegmentSource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

All income segments showing declines in e-commerce spending

Page 10: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

10© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

As the older mid-to-upper income households save to re-create their lost

wealth, they are cutting spending. The 18-44 age group is purchasing more

versus year ago, particularly in the high income segment

Q3 „09 Ecom Sales

Age & Income Segment % Chg vs. YA

$50K - $99.9K

18-44 yrs of age…………………………….. +3%

45 yrs or older……………………………… -5%

$100K or more

18-44 yrs of age ………………………….. +10%

45 yrs or older……………………………… -12%

Page 11: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

11© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

While no positive growth as of yet, the monthly trend in e-commerce

sales in Q3 is somewhat encouraging

Month Growth Rate vs. YA

January 2009 +2%

February 2009* +2%

March 2009 -1%

April 2009 0%

May 2009 -4%

June 2009 -1%

July 2009 -5%

August 2009 -1%

September 2009 0%

Monthly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YASource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

*February 2009 growth rate is seasonally adjusted to account for the leap year (2008).

Page 12: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

12© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

E-commerce continues to attract more buyers but they are spending

less than a year ago

% Chg in Q3 „09 vs. YA

E-commerce Sales Growth -2%

Buyer Change +19.6%

Dollars Per Buyer Change -18.4%

Dollars Per Transaction

Change-2.4%

Transactions per Buyer

Change-16.4%

Key e-Commerce Buyer & Transaction MeasuresSource: comScore E-commerce Measurement

There are

more people

buying online

vs. YA but

they are

spending

less via fewer

transactions

and fewer

dollars per

transaction

Page 13: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

13© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Consumer sentiment about the current state of the economy has

improved – albeit marginally – among those earning less than $100K

Consumer Fear Factor by Income Segment

Q. To what extent do you agree with the following statement:

“I am more afraid of the economic future than ever before.”Source: comScore Surveys – July & October 2009

77%73% 75%

-2% -2% 0% %age Pt. Change vs. Q2

Page 14: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

14© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

However, a slightly improved outlook means little when you consider

the impact of consumer debt on one‟s ability to spend on

discretionary items

Impact of Debt on Spending for Non-Essentials by Income Segment

Q. How has your current level of debt impacted your ability to spend on non-essentials?Source: comScore Survey October 2009

% Spending More on

Non-Essentials

% Spending Less on

Non-Essentials

65% 50% 46%

4% 4% 6%

Page 15: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

15© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions most

concerns you?Source: comScore Survey October 2009

Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Concern

Among All Consumers Among Consumers

Earning $100K or more

Unemployment/Job

Security

42% 34%

Rising Prices 32% 19%

Financial Markets 13% 27%

Real Estate/Home

Values

8% 15%

Other 5% 5%

Unemployment/job security continues to be a top concern among all

consumers

Page 16: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

16© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Consumers remain most concerned about unemployment, with little

overall change in consumers‟ most pressing issues over the past

several months

Rising

Prices

Unemployment/

Job Security

Financial

Markets

Real Estate/

Home Values

Jan

09

April

09

July

09

Oct

09

Jan

09

April

09

July

09

Oct

09

Jan

09

April

09

July

09

Oct

09

Jan

09

April

09

July

09

Oct

09

Total 29% 28% 32% 32% 46% 46% 40% 42% 14% 15% 13% 13% 7% 8% 8% 8%

Household Income

$100K or more 15% 7% 22% 19% 42% 44% 28% 34% 20% 34% 30% 27% 19% 11% 11% 15%

$50K-$99,999 21% 22% 27% 28% 50% 50% 44% 43% 18% 17% 15% 13% 9% 10% 10% 12%

Under $50K 36% 38% 40% 39% 44% 44% 39% 42% 10% 8% 6% 9% 3% 7% 6% 4%

Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions

most concerns you?Source: comScore Surveys - January, April, July & October 2009

Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue

“The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to 10.2% in October, the highest level

since April 1983. The government‟s broader measure of unemployment shot up even more,

rising half a point to 17.5%.” –WSJ, Nov. „09

Page 17: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

17© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Just over half of consumers believe it will take more than a year for

the unemployment rate to show signs of improvement

Q. When do you think the unemployment rate will begin to improve?Source: comScore Surveys - July & October 2009

Unemployment Rate Predictions

+1% +2% +5% -6% 0% %age Pt. Change

vs. Q2

Page 18: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

18© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Inflation concerns are again beginning to surface. To no surprise, as

HH income decreases, rising prices become more worrisome

Consumer Concern Over Rising Prices by Income Segment

Q. Are you afraid that prices are going to rise in the next 3 months?

Source: comScore Survey – October 2009

Yes

85%

76%71%

15% 24% 29%

No

Page 19: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

19© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Some pundits are optimistic about the recession being “technically

over,” but there are still many factors that will impact the speed of

recovery

“The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to

10.2% in October, the highest level since April 1983. The

government‟s broader measure of unemployment shot up

even more, rising half a point to 17.5%.”

November 9, 2009

“25% of U.S. mortgage holders are “underwater” on

their mortgages, with more than 10,000 additional

U.S. homeowners entering the foreclosure process

every day – and millions more homeowners only a

(missing) pay check away from joining that

category.”

October 23, 2009

“U.S. consumer credit fell in September for an eighth

straight month, the longest series of declines on

record, as thousands of Americans lost their jobs

and banks tightened access to loans… More than

100 banks have failed this year, and lenders are

requiring tougher conditions for the credit they

extend to consumers and businesses.”

November 6, 2009

“A total of 690,000 new vehicles were sold under the Cash for

Clunkers program last summer, but only 125,000 of those

were vehicles that would not have been sold anyway,

[according to Edmunds.com]…[Because the] overwhelming

majority of sales would have taken place anyway at some

time in the last half of 2009…that means the government

ended up spending about $24,000 each for those 125,000

additional vehicle sales.”

October 29, 2009

Note: According to the blog, The Big Picture,

“nationally, 22% of all homes are underwater…Back

out the mortgage-free homes, and we get 33% of all

mortgaged homes are underwater.”

Page 20: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

20© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

The promising Q3 „09 GDP report that showed 3.5% growth needs to

be considered in the context of several short term stimuli that

contributed to a temporary boost in the growth rate

“More than one percentage point of GDP growth in the third quarter came from car sales,

driven in a large part by the temporary "cash for clunkers" program. After surging in July

and August, retail car sales dropped 10.4% in September.”

--WSJ, Oct 30, 2009

“Q3 GDP was also propped up by home building, which rose for the first time since

2005…and contributed a half-percentage point to GDP growth. But much of the housing

revival reflects government efforts to push down mortgage rates, prevent or at least slow

foreclosures, and reward home buyers with tax credits.”

--WSJ, Oct 30, 2009

“Banks are buying U.S. government debt in an effort to shore up their balance sheets…Bank

lending is basically back to where it was two years ago, and shows no sign off

rebounding...Lending to small business, the real engine of job creation, is sadly decreasing

each month.”

--John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC

Page 21: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

21© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Job losses as a percentage of peak employment have dropped lower

(and longer) than any other post WWII recession

% J

ob

Lo

sses R

ela

tiv

e t

o P

eak E

mp

loym

en

t M

on

th

Number of Months After Peak Employment

Percent Job Losses in Post WWII RecessionsSource: CalculatedRiskBlog.com

“The country has lost more jobs as a percentage of peak employment than any time since the Great Depression.

This includes the recessions of the early 1980s, even when they are combined.”

--The Business Insider, Oct. „09

Page 22: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

22© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Gas prices are increasing again, while food prices are now back to

year-ago levels

Percent Change in Price vs. YASource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

AAA‟s Daily Fuel Gauge Report

Regular Unleaded Gas

Avg. Price for Nov. 3, 2009: $2.89

% Chg vs. Month Ago Avg: +9%

% Chg vs. YA Avg: +11%

CPI for Gasoline (all types) by Month in 2009

-42% -40% -40%

6%

0

50

100

150

200

250

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 23: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

23© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

The Economy‟s Impact on Consumers‟ Online

Shopping Behavior

Page 24: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

24© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

The Books & Magazines category was a top performer in Q3 ‟09, and

will be one to watch as we head into the holiday season, with a

heated price war already underway

Q3 2009 e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA by Retail Sub-CategorySource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

“The holiday period represents anywhere between 25% and 40% of the industry's annual sales and is make-

or-break for some categories, according to NRF.”

– WSJ, Oct. „09

Category Growth vs. YA

Books & Magazines Up

Consumer Electronics (x PC Peripherals) Up

Sport & Fitness Marginally Up

Computers/Peripherals/PDAs Marginally Up

Video Games, Consoles & Acces. Flat

Event Tickets Marginally Down

Jewelry & Watches Marginally Down

Apparel & Accessories Down

Home & Garden Down

Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Significantly Down

Toys & Hobbies Significantly Down

Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts Significantly Down

Music, Movies & Videos Significantly Down

Page 25: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

25© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

e-Commerce Dollar Share by Retailer TypeSource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Pure play sites accounted for nearly six of every ten e-commerce

dollars spent in Q3 „09, their highest share on record

Page 26: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

26© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

During the holiday season, buyers are more likely to make purchases

on more than 1 site, buying on an average of 3 sites during the period

56% 58% 59%52%

60% 62% 64%

44% 42% 41%48%

40% 38% 36%

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09

1 site 2+ sites

% Buyers Making a Purchase on 1 Site vs. 2+ Sites by QuarterSource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

2.97 3.02 2.97 3.33 2.84 2.84 2.75

Average # of sites

buyers purchased

on, of those who

bought from more

than one site.

Page 27: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

27© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

With more cross-shopping and less consumer loyalty toward a given

retailer during the holiday season, it‟s no wonder aggressive pricing

is taking center stage

“Borders Group Inc took the latest step in

the battle for book buyers this holiday

season, promising customers it will ship

items to their homes for free when they're

out of stock in the company's bookstores.”

– Reuters, Oct. „09

Amazon vs. Wal-Mart Buyer OverlapSource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

20% 18% 23% 17% 19% 15%

77% 79% 70% 80% 78% 83%

3% 3% 8% 3% 4% 3%

Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09

Walmart Only Amazon Only Overlap

Page 28: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

28© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

In Q3, a few retailers were able to increase buyer conversion while

experiencing heightened visitation compared to year ago

Q3 „09 UV‟s

(MM)4.7 37.0 10.8 14.8

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement & Media Metrix

Average change in

Buyer Conversion

vs. year ago among

top retailers:

-3%

Page 29: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

29© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

While luxury department stores have taken a hit in this economy,

invitation-only e-luxury sites are flourishing – at least in visitation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Un

iqu

e V

isit

ors

(0

00

)

+199%

118%*

+222%

+40%

Unique Visitors and Growth vs. YA for

September 2009Source: comScore Media Metrix

*Note: comScore began tracking Hautelook in October „09 therefore its above

growth rate is calculated vs. Jan „09 instead of vs. YA

Total

InternetHauteLook

Gilt

GroupeIdeeli RueLaLa

Less than

$40K28% 25% 24% 21% 14%

$40K-$74.9K 35% 33% 31% 32% 23%

$75K-$99.9K 15% 17% 14% 20% 22%

$100K or

more22% 25% 31% 27% 41%

% Composition by HH Income for

September 2009Source: comScore Media Metrix

Groupon.com – a relatively new “deal-of-the-day” site with a slightly different model and

broader appeal – has grown 250% from July 2009 to September 2009.

Page 30: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

30© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

PayPal B2C Market Share has grown steadily over the past four years to

almost 10% of B2C Transactions; 2008 Holiday-promotions drove an increase

in PayPal dollar share for retailers

2.3% 3.5% 4.1% 5.0%4.5%6.5% 7.5%

9.5%

2006 2007 2008 1H 2009

Dollars Transactions

Q3 08 Q4 08 Point

Change

Overstock.com 15.0% 18.6% 3.6

Dell.com 1.9% 7.0% 5.1

AE.com 3.0% 8.0% 5.0

In Q4 08, Overstock.com customers were

presented with 15% cash back on a $100

purchase when using PayPal

PayPal B2C e-Commerce Market ShareSource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

PayPal Share of Dollars at Specific Online Retailer SiteSource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Dell.com gave PayPal preferential

treatment, positioning the payment option

right under Dell‟s payment plan and above

all other credit card options

Page 31: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

31© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Retailers have increased their discounting in response to sluggish

consumer demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Off

ers

pe

r R

eta

ile

r

2008 2009

-5%+15% +5%

+11%+10% +22%

+16%+7% +3%

+16%

% Change in Offers per Retailer in 2009 vs. YASource: ShopLocal

“Shoppers are „testing the waters a little more aggressively," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail

Metrics Inc., a retail research firm. "They've gone from dipping their toe into the discretionary pool

to stepping in a little further, maybe up to their ankles.” – WSJ, Nov. „09

Page 32: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

32© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Coupon sites continue to grow in importance during these tough

economic times, and as we saw in Q4 „08 we‟ll likely see visits and

UVs spike in Q4 „09

Growth in Unique Visitors & Total Visits to

Coupon Sites vs. YASource: comScore Media Metrix

% Composition of Coupon Users on Selected

Retail Sites in September 2009Source: comScore Segment Metrix

Page 33: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

33© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Savvy Smartphone Users are Shopping Using Mobile:

Is the smartphone to mobile advertising what broadband is to the PC?

Category % Reach Among Mobile Phone Users

Accessed Via Mobile DeviceSource: comScore MobiLens, US, 3-month average ending August „09

Source: TechCrunch, October 2009

Page 34: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

34© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

2009 Holiday Season Preview

“Holiday shopping in 2008 was defined by the huge discounts

that were available - and available very early in the holiday

season.” – Reuters, October 2009

What will this year bring?

Page 35: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

35© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Burning questions we‟re answering for retailers this holiday season:

In-store sales is still the primary metric we focus on. How do I prove that my holiday

marketing spend drove incremental sales in my physical retail locations?

I‟m advertising heavily across multiple channels this holiday season. What mix of

marketing channels (digital and traditional) have the most significant impact on my

brand?

Have retailers‟ market shares shifted during the holidays within the Consumer

Electronics category? – Same question for Apparel

I know which digital marketing tactics (search, display, email, etc.) are driving traffic

to my site. Which are most successful in driving online sales? How does this

compare to my competitors?

What do my category buyers do before ultimately purchasing? What sites do they

visit? What do they search for?

We‟ve ramped up our search spend this holiday season. How do I validate that this

spend drove incremental sales that we wouldn‟t have gotten if we didn‟t spend?

I know where to find my demographic target online, and I know where to find heavy

visitors to my category. How do I determine where my category buyers are online so

I can design my media plan accordingly?

Page 36: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

36© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Plans for Holiday Spending This Season

A net 46% of consumers earning under $50K anticipate spending less this

holiday season; meanwhile a net 38% and 32% of those earning $50K to

$100K and more than $100K respectively anticipate spending less

Q. Do you anticipate your spending for the holiday season to be...?Source: comScore Survey October 2009

Less than I Typically Spend

More than I Typically Spend7%

39%46%55%

8%9%

Overall, 50% of consumers anticipate their spending to be less this holiday season

About the same

55%45%

37%

Share of Online

Retail Spend: (21%) (45%) (34%)

Page 37: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

37© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Reasons Consumers are Planning to Spend Less This Holiday Season

Of those who intend on spending less this holiday season, more than

half say it‟s because they have less money

Q. Why are you planning to spend less this holiday season? (check all that apply)Source: comScore Survey October 2009

Page 38: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

38© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

One-fourth of consumers typically travel during the holidays, with

half planning to stay with family and friends and 15 percent saying

they‟ve cancelled their plans completely

Holiday TravelSource: comScore Survey October 2009

Q. Which of the following

describes your travel plans this

holiday season?

(check all that apply)

Q. Do you typically travel during the holidays?

Yes

No

Page 39: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

39© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Walmart plans to reduce prices as the season advances in areas including

home, food and gifts. (Bloomberg, Oct ‘09)

Discount retailer Target is offering up to half off of popular toys like Barbie

and Fisher Price to lure bargain hunters this holiday season.

(CNNMoney.com, Oct. ‘09)

Layaway plans making a comeback for holiday shopping season: Driven by

the credit crunch and sagging economy, Toys-R-Us has joined a growing list of

retailers reviving the once-popular payment plan in an effort to boost sales.

(Chicago Tribune, Oct. ‘09)

Retailers are reaching into their marketing toolboxes this season to

find ways to provide value to consumers and incentivize spending…

Smart merchants will look at consumer behavior and apply free shipping and

other promotional offers to specific customer segments during specific time

periods. (Internet Retailer, Oct. ‘09)Promotions

Layaway

Price Discounts

With an understanding that many of today’s shoppers use Facebook and

Twitter regularly, and because these tools are more cost-effective than

traditional advertising, 47.1 percent of retailers surveyed will be increasing their

use of social media this holiday season. (Shop.org, Oct. ‘09)

Social Media

Page 40: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

40© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

…And, on the cost side of things, they‟re also doing more to try to

boost profit margins and finish the year strong

Nearly half the nation's 25 biggest retail chains expect to hire fewer holiday

workers this season than they did last year, another sign that retailers aren't

counting on recession-strained shoppers to relax the tight grip on their

pocketbooks this year. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. ‘09)

Inventory

Management

Personnel/

Staffing

Because of the economic downturn this year, many retailers are under-

ordering products – Baird notes that retailers’ inbound container shipments

are down 16% from a year ago. (Bloomberg, Oct. ‘09)

Shoppers willing to pry open their wallets may find a surprise on the shelves

this season: not as many brands, a diminished palette of colors, and fewer

deep discounts. (Boston Globe, Oct. ‘09)

Tweaking

Marketing Mix

The web will influence one in three holiday purchases this year, and retailers

are using the Internet not only as a sales channel but also as a marketing

vehicle. (Shop.org, Oct.‘09)

The proliferation of mobile applications and social networks may yield new

opportunities to pursue targeted advertising, build brand loyalty and measure

campaign effectiveness. (Retail Trading, Sept. ‘09)

Page 41: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

41© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Timing of Holiday Shopping

Two thirds of consumers have not yet started their holiday shopping

Q. Have you started shopping for the holidays?Source: comScore Survey October 2009

No 68%

Yes 32%

Page 42: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

42© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Free shipping has become increasingly more prevalent; the

percentage of transactions with free shipping increased 11 points

since Q1 „08 to account for 42% of all e-commerce transactions

Average Order Value (AOV)

Free Versus Paid Shipping

Time

Period

Free

Shipping

AOV

Paid

Shipping

AOV

Q1 08 $113 $86

Q2 08 $120 $88

Q3 08 $115 $91

Q4 08 $116 $96

Q1 09 $114 $87

Q2 09 $104 $88

Q3 09 $106 $90

Percentage of e-Commerce Transactions with Free ShippingSource: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Page 43: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

43© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Current Predictions for the 2009 Holiday Season…

Retail Predictions

The International Council of Shopping Centers: +1%

Deloitte Research: flat

Retail Forward: flat

Archstone Consulting: - 1%

National Retail Federation: -1%

E-commerce Predictions

Forrester: +8%

comScore forecast will be issued w/o November 23

Historical Comparison Dept of Commerce Forrester

Q1 2009 -5.8% +11%

Q2 2009 -4.5% +12%

Page 44: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

44© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Key Takeaways

Page 45: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

45© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

Key Takeaways

We‟re seeing clear signs that we‟ve hit the bottom of the decline in e-commerce

spending, and comScore expects some modest growth in the holiday season

compared to last year

Consumers continue to be very cautious about their spending given concerns about:

– The job market/unemployment/lack of job creation

– Declines in housing prices/Underwater mortgages

– Lack of credit and too much debt

– Rising gas prices

E-commerce continues to attract more buyers, but they are spending less than a

year ago by completing fewer transactions and spending less per shopping trip

Retailers are hiring fewer workers and carefully planning their inventory so as to

avoid heavy discounting post-season

The holiday season will likely be characterized by heavy discounts/price wars,

promotions/couponing, an earlier start to the season and an increased use of digital

marketing

Page 46: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

46© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential.

QUESTIONS?

Please contact us at [email protected] if

you have any additional questions or comments.

Page 47: ComScore State Of Us Online Retail Economy In Q3 09

Thank You!

Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 24

hours of today‟s webinar.