Computer Interpretation of Uncertain DNA Evidence National Institute of Justice Computer v. Human June, 2011 Arlington, VA Mark W Perlin, PhD, MD, PhD.
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Computer Interpretation of Uncertain DNA Evidence
National Institute of JusticeNational Institute of JusticeComputer v. Human Computer v. Human
June, 2011June, 2011Arlington, VAArlington, VA
Mark W Perlin, PhD, MD, PhDMark W Perlin, PhD, MD, PhDCybergenetics, Pittsburgh, PACybergenetics, Pittsburgh, PA
IJ-CX-K003Provide quantitative DNA mixture analysis
on a wide range of data.
Handle known STR artifacts and adapt to new marker technologies.
Interact well with users, including DNA analysts and reporting officers.
90%90%70%70%50%50%30%30%10%10%
1, 1/2, 1/4, 1/8 ng1, 1/2, 1/4, 1/8 ng
Study Design: 40 Mixture Items
5 weights
4 dilutions
2 pairs
Margaret KlineNIST
MW Perlin. Real-time DNA investigation. Proceedings of Promega's 16th International Symposium on Human Identification, 2005.
Same Data, More Informationcomputer
human
info
rmat
ion
Computer = million x Human
MW Perlin, MM Legler, CE Spencer, JL Smith, WP Allan, JL Belrose, BW Duceman. Validating TrueAllele® DNA mixture interpretation. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 2011.
computercomputer
humanhuman
info
rmat
ion
info
rmat
ion
13.2613.26
7.037.036.246.24
10 million10 million
10 trillion10 trillion
Information Results
MW Perlin, A Sinelnikov. An information gap in DNA evidence interpretation. PLoS ONE, 2009.
info
rmat
ion
DNA quantity
Computer v. Human
MW Perlin, A Sinelnikov. An information gap in DNA evidence interpretation. PLoS ONE, 2009.
info
rmat
ion
Commonwealth v. Foley
Score Method13 thousand threshold
23 million use victim189 billion quantitative
• probability modeling preserves information• peak threshold discards information
The DNA Investigator™ Newsletter, 2009 Same Data, More Information – Murder, Match and DNA
homicide: 7% DNA mixture fingernail evidence
Predictably Preserves Information
15 loci
12 loci
67
info
rmat
ion
MW Perlin, A Sinelnikov. An information gap in DNA evidence interpretation. PLoS ONE, 2009.
Commonwealth v. Lyonshomicide: DNA mixture evidence
Victim's blood spatterpulsating spray from severed carotid artery
75% victim25% other
Degraded DNA Mixture
Degraded other DNA
Victim DNA
Quantitative Mixture EvidenceQuantitative peak heights at locus D8S1179
victim
other
Perlin MW, Szabady B. Linear mixture analysis: a mathematical approach to resolving mixed DNA samples. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 2001.
How the Computer ThinksConsiders every possible genotype solution
victimother
Explains thepeak pattern Better explanation
gives a higher probability
MW Perlin, MM Legler, CE Spencer, JL Smith, WP Allan, JL Belrose, BW Duceman. Validating TrueAllele DNA mixture interpretation. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 2011.
Objectively Infer Genotype
victimother
MW Perlin, MM Legler, CE Spencer, JL Smith, WP Allan, JL Belrose, BW Duceman. Validating TrueAllele DNA mixture interpretation. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 2011.
DNA Match Information
Probability(evidence match)
Probability(coincidental match)
How much more does the suspect match the evidencethan a random person?
6x
MW Perlin. Explaining the likelihood ratio in DNA mixture interpretation. Proceedings of Promega's 21st International Symposium on Human Identification, 2010.
LR = 6
Thresholds Discard Data
Over threshold,peaks becomeallele events.
Under threshold,alleles vanish.
All-or-none allele peaks; ignore victim genotype
Threshold
Thresholds Disperse GenotypeHuman mixture interpretation probability distribution
other
Thresholds Discard InformationHuman interpretation is less informative
2x
LR = 2
Likelihood RatioSimple Statement
A match between the suspect and the evidenceis 9.5 trillion times more probable
than coincidence.
ComputerHuman
9,500,000,000,00042,000
MW Perlin. Explaining the likelihood ratio in DNA mixture interpretation. Proceedings of Promega's 21st International Symposium on Human Identification, 2010.
Missed Allele Error > 100%
The DNA Investigator™ Newsletter, 2011 DNA Intelligence and Forensic Failure – What you don't know can kill you
Human Information
25caseitems
inconclusive
Computer Information
25+27
more
resolved
SWGDAM TriageInterpret DNA evidence
• Library of match information• On-demand case report