Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018 13 Computer Generations & Complexity: The Necessity for Collaboration @GlenBrumbaugh Glen Brumbaugh
Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
13
Computer Generations & Complexity:The Necessity for Collaboration
@GlenBrumbaugh
Glen Brumbaugh
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
13
Today’s Tapestry
A number of threads;
woven together to tell a story
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Tapestry Threads
• Hardware & network communications evolution
• Software interaction (communications) evolution
• Hardware & Software communications are equivalent
• IT organizational changes
• Teamwork evolution
• Machines modeled after human understanding
✓All communication patterns are equivalent
• Collaboration infrastructure development
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation I - Hardware
• Organizations had one computer✓ It filled a room✓ It was very expensive✓ Hardware costs dwarfed software & human costs
• Peripheral devices provided by vendor
• Beginning of Plug Compatible Machines✓ Initially, only IBM peripherals✓ Tape (1965 - Telex)✓ Disk (1968 – Memorex)
• Collaboration Technology✓ Zerox machine (1949)✓ IBM Selectric Typewriter (1961)
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation I - Software
• Operating Systems – OS/360✓$5B; half the cost of the Manhattan project
✓Second largest project of decade (Apollo Moon #1)
✓Required over 5,000 person years of development
• Programming Languages✓Fortran
✓COBOL
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation I - Collaboration & Technology
• Roles✓ Business Analysts✓ Systems Analysts✓ Programmers✓ Typically small teams (handful of people)
• Communication Vehicles✓ Syntax Diagrams
▪ Backus Normal/Naur Form (BNF) – “Railroad tracks”✓ Hand drawn flowcharts✓ Software behavioral documentation
▪ Decision Tables▪ State Change diagrams
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation I – State of Communications
• Communications established between computers and peripherals
• Standardization of peripheral connections limited to emulation
• Development of first Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) processes
• Document driven, linear, hierarchical development✓ But we developed OS/360 and put a man on the moon
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation II - Hardware
• Development of “Mini” computers✓ IBMI I (originally System 34)
✓ UNIX
✓ Tandem, etc.
• Development of “Micro” computers✓ DOS/Windows
✓ OS/2
✓ Apple
• Standardization of peripheral connections & protocols✓ VDU/CRT (3270, 5250, ADM-2, VT-100)
✓ Disk (SMD, SCSI)
• Standardization of computer-to-computer communications✓ LAN/WAN - Token Ring (IBM), Ethernet (IEEE)
✓ DARPA (IP)
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation II - Collaboration & Technology
• Computers physically integrated, but not logically.
• Still largely paper based SDLC. E-mail not yet invented/widespread!
• The availability of computer terminals enabled the first generation of automated Project Management tools. ✓ 1975 – Softlab, Maestro (worlds first integrated software development environment)
✓ 1979 – VisiCorp, VisiCalc (worlds first spreadsheet software)
✓ 1985 – High Performance Systems, STELLA (visual programming for system dynamics)
• Increasing use of E-mail and electronic communications✓ 1980s – Bulletin Board Systems (BBS)
✓ 1986 - LISTSERV
• Increasing technical complexity of systems required larger development teams.
• Increasing number of roles led to increasing SDLC communications overhead
• Projects failing due to the SDLC scaling overhead.
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation II - Software
• Continued evolution of mainframe OS
• New Operating Systems (UNIX, etc.)
• Foundational business software infrastructure✓ IMS✓ CICS✓ DB2✓ XA protocol (ACID transactions; Two-phase commit)
• OTS software✓ SAP✓ PeopleSoft
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation II – State of Communications
• Peripheral connections standardized
• Computer-to-computer communication protocols standardized
• No standard software-to-software communication protocols or standards
• Human communication still primarily paper based.✓ Automation; beginning with Wang and ending with WordPerfect.
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation III - Hardware
• Evolution and improvement of existing platforms✓ Mainframe, Midrange, Personal Computers
• Evolution and improvement of existing peripherals✓ Remember Floppy Disk storage?
✓ Remember 800 BAUD modems?
• Emergence of mobile devices✓ Laptops
✓ Tablets
✓ Personal Data Assistants (PDA) - Palm
✓ Cellular phones
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation III - Software
• Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)✓ Software-to-software communications
✓ SSL (Netscape 1995)
✓ Enterprise Service Bus (ESB); MQ & Message Broker
✓ Business Process Manager and BPEL
✓ Information Server
✓ WebSphere
✓ WebSphere Commerce Server, WebSphere Portal
• World Wide Web✓ Java
✓ HTTP connectivity
✓ Beginning of Internet of Things (IoT)
✓ IPv6 (3.4 x 1038 addresses)
• Software as a Service (SaaS)✓ Salesforce
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation III - Collaboration & Technology
• Larger teams✓ Increased IT/Business interaction
▪ Business-to-Consumer (B2C) applications
▪ GUI interfaces
✓ Increasing specialization
• Microsoft Office product suite
• Collaboration software ✓ 1989 – Lotus, Notes
✓ 1990 – Microsoft, Project (for Windows; previously DOS)
✓ 1990 – Free Software Foundation, CVS
✓ 1992 – Shapeware, Visio
✓ 1998 – IBM, Lotus Sametime
✓ 2000 – Open Source, Jabber
✓ 2001 – Microsoft, SharePoint
✓ 2005 – Linus Torvalds, Git
✓ 2007 – IBM, Lotus Connections
✓ 2008 – IBM, Rational Team Concert (Built on Jazz)
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation III – State of Communications
• Intranet Software-to-Software communication mechanisms standardized (Messaging, HTTP)
• Digitalization of the development process✓ Source Code Management (SCM) systems✓ Electronic communications (Email & instant messaging)✓ Microsoft Office suite
• 2001 – Manifesto for Agile Software Development
• Electronic repositories for Office documents considered “State of the Art”✓ Microsoft Project, Visio, Excel, Word
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation IV - Hardware
• Evolution and improvement of existing platforms✓Mainframe, Midrange, Personal Computers
• Emergence of Internet of Thing devices✓RFID sensors
✓2013 - Google Glass
✓2015 - Apple watch
✓2016 – Facebook, Oculus Rift
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation IV - Software
• Cloud Providers✓ IBM Cloud✓Amazon AWS✓Microsoft Azure
• Cloud Technologies✓Containerization (Docker, Kubernetes, Helm, Istio)✓Cloud Native (JavaScript, Ruby, Go)✓NoSQL (CouchDB, Cloudant, MongoDB)✓CI/CD (Urban Code, Jenkins)
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation IV - Collaboration & Technology
• Rich vibrant market of collaboration offerings
• Collaboration products siloed by vendor/protocol
• In many ways, still a “formative” marketplace✓Didn’t Lotus come out 20 years ago?
• Collaboration software ✓2011 – Fog Creek Software, Trello✓2013 – Tiny Speck, Slack✓2016 – IBM, Watson Workspace
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation IV – State of Communications
• Internet Software-to-Software communication standardized (HTTP)
• SDLC processes in Flux✓ “Agile” methodologies✓ “Frozen” Agile (Fragile) methodologies✓ Lightweight PM tools (e.g. Trello)✓ Mixed bag of collaboration tools
• Competing Document Storage tools✓ Box, DropBox, Git, SharePoint, etc.
• Competing Instant Messaging tools✓ Previous set of vendors replaced by Social Media applications
• Competing Project Management & competing Collaboration tools
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
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Recap
CommunicationsHardware, Software, Human-through-Software
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation I – State of Communications
• Communications established between computers and peripherals
• Standardization of peripheral connections limited to emulation
• Development of first Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) processes
• Document driven, linear, hierarchical development✓ But we developed OS/360 and put a man on the moon
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation II – State of Communications
• Peripheral connections standardized
• Computer-to-computer communication protocols standardized
• No standard software-to-software communication protocols or standards
• Human communication still primarily paper based.✓ Automation; beginning with Wang and ending with WordPerfect.
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation III – State of Communications
• Intranet Software-to-Software communication mechanisms standardized (Messaging, HTTP)
• Digitalization of the development process✓ Source Code Management (SCM) systems✓ Electronic communications (Email & instant messaging)✓ Microsoft Office suite
• 2001 – Manifesto for Agile Software Development
• Electronic repositories for Office documents considered “State of the Art”✓ Microsoft Project, Visio, Excel, Word
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Generation IV – State of Communications
• Internet Software-to-Software communication standardized (HTTP)
• SDLC processes in Flux✓ “Agile” methodologies✓ “Frozen” Agile (Fragile) methodologies✓ Lightweight PM tools (e.g. Trello)✓ Mixed bag of collaboration tools
• Competing Document Storage tools✓ Box, DropBox, Git, SharePoint, etc.
• Competing Instant Messaging tools✓ Previous set of vendors replaced by Social Media applications
• Competing Project Management & competing Collaboration tools
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Collaboration Software – Solution Silos
• Instant Messaging (i.e. Slack)
• Group Scheduling (i.e. Google Calendar)
• Document Sharing (i.e. DropBox)
• Content Management (i.e. IBM FileNet)
• Knowledge Management (i.e. Confluence)
• Project Management (i.e. Trello)
• Issue Tracking (i.e. Jira)
• Community Management (i.e. Higher Logic)
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Review
• Communication patterns are constant across hardware, software, and human interactions.
• Software-to-software integration dependent upon hardware-to-hardware integration. ✓ Hardware integration uses IP.
✓ Software integration uses HTTP.
✓ Software data integration will most likely be a small set of standards (e.g. JSON, XML).
• Human-to-software integration dependent upon software-to-software integration.
• Marketplace has consistently demonstrated a strong drive towards platform/protocol standardization.
• Marketplace has consistently demonstrated a strong drive towards Open Source solutions:✓ Price point
✓ Interoperability
• Prediction: A predominant single channel for human-thruough-software communication will emerge, most likely from the Open Source community.
• Prediction: A small number of object sharing technologies will be standardized on (Git, npm, Box, etc.) The ultimately winners will most likely be managed by the Open Source community.
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Hardware Trends - I
• Increasing number of devices
• Massively increasing connection numbers
• Decreasing number of protocols✓Drive towards zero translations
• Bandwidth always consumed✓Brumbaugh’s 1st Law: Bandwidth is never enough
✓Brumbaugh’s 2nd Law: Ceteris paribus, data↑ = info↓
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Hardware Trends - II
• Managing increasing communication loads✓ Peer processing (Horizontal scaling)
✓ Delegation (Hierarchical)
• One protocol family (IP)✓ Universal interoperability
✓ E Pluribus Unum (“Out of many, one”)
• Prediction: Everything will talk to everything!
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Software Trends
• Collaboration software still at initial market phase✓ Multiple product silos (messaging, file sharing, workflow, PM, etc.)✓ Multiple vendor offerings within each silo✓ Limited inter-operation across silos✓ Limited inter-operation across vendor solutions
• Collaboration silos✓ Instant Messaging✓ Time Management (e.g. Calendars)✓ Document Sharing✓ Project Management & Work Flow✓ Communities
• Silo convergence
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Collaboration Predictions
• Prediction: Market will drive to a single Instant Messaging solution or universal interoperation (similar to Email today)!
• Prediction: Market will drive to a small number of document sharing solutions, possibly by adopting a common API.
• Prediction: The Project Management and/or Collaboration software that best integrates with other software will gain market dominance.
• Prediction: Some major Project Management and/or Collaboration solutions will fall by the wayside.
• Prediction: The Project Management and/or Collaboration solutions that prevail will most likely be Cloud friendly.
Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018
Your Presenter – Glen Brumbaugh
• Developer, Architect, Professor, Executive, Sailor.
• Services (Cloud & SOA) SME. MQ & Integration Bus
Subject Matter Expert.
• Educated in Computer Science, Economics, and
Business Administration. Professor of Computer
Science.
• Over 45 years of software development (over 5 million
lines of code), design, architecture, and
team/project/program leadership experience in the
financial, insurance, retail, government and other
industry sectors.
• Over two decades of Cloud, Middleware, ESB, and SOA
consulting experience. Part of the team that supported
the initial release of MQSeries and the evolution of SOA.
• First hand witness to numerous technology and process
revolutions; from punch cards to the IoT.