Comprehensive Scan 2016 - Research, Strategic Planning ... · PDF fileComprehensive Scan 2016 Office of Research, ... s Ozarks Technical Community College sets out to begin its annual

Comprehensive Scan 2016Office of Research, Strategic Planning

and Grant Development

Comprehensive Scan

A s Ozarks Technical Community College sets out to begin its annual strategic planning process, information on the external environment of the college has been collected in order to assist in planning strategically for the future. This report is a compilation of important issues and trends that impact the institution and the

communities it serves. The purpose of this document is to anticipate and plan for the opportunities and challenges that OTC will face in

the future. Key findings have been categorized into five areas of change: demographics, higher education, economy and workforce, public policy and politics, and technology. These five trend areas interact to shape the environment in which OTC functions.

The emerging trends identified in this report inform the strategic planning process at OTC and are vital to setting and achieving the goals and initiatives of the college. As planning for the future continues, information about these areas provides a context for decision-making related to how OTC fulfills its mission.

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Demographics

C ommunity colleges continue to be a vital part of the postsecondary education system in the United States, educating nearly half

of undergraduate students in the nation.1 The same is true for public institutions in the state of Missouri, as the community college system serves approximately 100,000 students across the state.2

Population demographics influence the environment in which OTC operates. As one of the few regions in the state experiencing a significant population increase, southwest Missouri will continue to see impacts of population growth throughout the region. The OTC service area is projected to see a significant population increase by 2030. Christian County, and several surrounding counties, are expected to see some of the largest numeric increases in population in the state.3 Accommodating this growth will be necessary to address future needs of the communities served by OTC.

In addition, heightened poverty levels and low levels of educational attainment continue as key demographic trends. In southwest Missouri, only 26 percent of adults have completed a bachelor’s degree or higher.4 This places the area below state and national

1 American Association of Community Colleges, www.aacc.nche.edu/AboutCC/Trends/Pages/studentsatcommunitycolleges.aspx

2 MDHE Fall 2015 Enrollment Report. Trends in Headcount Enrollment.

3 Missouri Office of Administration, Division of Budget and Planning, http://www.missourieconomy.org/indicators/ population/pop_proj_2030.stm

4 U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey.

averages for attainment of post-secondary education. Lagging levels of educational attainment coupled with the rise in poverty levels will present significant challenges for southwest Missouri and OTC. Every county in OTC’s service area, with the exception of Christian and Pulaski, have poverty levels above state and national averages. High area poverty levels place increased demands on social services infrastructure in the Ozarks, as well as other support services. To best serve students facing these problems, OTC must continue to prepare for issues related to resource deficiency, hunger, and homelessness.

Looking at overall population characteristics, southwest Missouri is continuing to become more diverse. The same is true for OTC. The college serves students from a variety of backgrounds, including recent high school graduates, veterans, adult learners, displaced workers, and international students. As these demographic trends impact southwest Missouri, OTC must be prepared to adapt to the changes that will accompany them.

Demographic Trends: • Southwest Missouri will continue to experience

population growth.• There is a continued increase in poverty in

southwest Missouri. • Educational attainment in southwest Missouri is

below state and national averages. • OTC and southwest Missouri populations

continue to become more diverse.

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Education Attainment for Springfield, MissouriMetropolitan Statistical Area, population age 25 and over

Percent of People Living in Poverty2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Less than 9th grade 8,441 2.9%

9th to 12th grade, no diploma 22,243 7.7%

High school graduate (includes equivalency) 89,973 31.1%

Some college, no degree 73,583 25.4%

Associate's degree 20,466 7.1%

Bachelor's degree 49,044 16.9%

Graduate or professional degree 25,980 9.0%

Total 289,730

Wright22.8%Douglas

21.5% Polk20.5%

Dallas22.7%

Stone16.3%

Service Area Average18.6%

Laclede19.4%

Ozark20.7%

Greene19.1%

Taney20.2%

Webster16.5%

Pulaski12.9%Christian

10.7%

31.1%

25.4%

7.1%

16.9%

9.0%7.7%

2.9%

Higher Education

H igher education is continually changing and transforming. These changes affect all aspects of OTC’s operation; being positioned to

respond to these changes is necessary. From funding and regulation issues to innovative teaching and learning strategies, the face of higher education is certain to change in the future.

As the federal government continues to enforce accountability and transparency measures, colleges and universities will be required to provide more data related to college costs.5 Although these elements are aimed to “compare” colleges, no rating system can accurately measure the best fit for individual students. Providing the most relevant information to prospective students will continue to be a challenge. Further, the continued focus on fiscal austerity at the federal and state levels remains a challenge for OTC. The college must continue to innovate in order to provide accessible, quality education even as higher education is viewed more as a private than public good. These fiscal issues are not the only areas of frequent change in higher education. The educational environment is also shaped by advances in technology and the changing ways students learn. The current focus on competency-based teaching and learning is changing the climate of higher education. Innovation and creativity will be essential to classrooms of the future.

Federal regulations, as well as accreditation requirements, have adopted an increased focus on providing consumer information to prospective

5 College Affordability and Transparency Center, U.S. Department of Education, http://collegecost.ed.gov/

students. OTC must continue work to provide this information at the program-level and ensure quality performance on those measures most relevant to students.

In addition to teaching and learning trends, rising college costs and heightened student loan debt also must be considered as OTC plans for the future. As the cost of attending college rises and students continue to take on greater amounts of loan debt, ensuring access to affordable education is essential. Although OTC and the community college sector offer a more affordable option to students, a trend of increased student loan debt continues to be an issue.

After an increase in enrollment as a result of the 2008 economic troubles, the two-year sector nationally has seen declines in recent years due to improvement in the job market. Enrollment trends in Missouri have also been affected by historically low high school graduating classes. As the environment of higher education continues to evolve, it is important for OTC to be positioned to respond to these changes. Innovation and adaptability will aid the college in these efforts.

Higher Education Trends:• Increased regulation and reporting requirements

present challenges.• There is an increased focus on providing

expanded consumer information to prospective students.

• The rising cost of college and increased student loan debt will continue to affect students.

• Enrollment has decreased, particularly at two-year colleges, as the job market improved.

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Enrollment Trends at Public Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions

SOURCE: American Association of Community Colleges.

Percent Change from Prior Year 2-Year Public Institutions

Gender Age Enrollment Intensity

Men Women 24 and Under Over 24 Part-time Full-time

Fall 2012 -2.9% -4.1% -2.1% -5.7% -1.7% -6.2%

Fall 2013 -2.0% -4.2% -1.3% -6.2% -3.4% -3.1%

Fall 2014 -3.7% -3.3% -1.5% -6.7% -2.7% -4.8%

0

800

1600

2400

3200

4000

2016'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00'99'98'97'96'95'94'93'92'1991

Lebanon Center Branson Center Richwood Valley Campus Table Rock

CampusSpringfield Campus OTC Online Waynesville

Center

* FY13 Estimate

$1,0

95$1

,212 $1

,441

State Appropriations by FTE

Source: OTC Office of Research, Strategic Planning and Grant Development, Fall Census Reports.

Economy & Workforce

T he state of the economy and changing workforce will continue to dictate the economic future of southwest Missouri. The

region has seen economic recovery through lower unemployment rates and increased total employment of area residents. The last five years, job growth has consistently remained higher than state and national averages. As of April 2016, the Springfield region unemployment rate was 3.7 percent, compared to 4.3 percent for Missouri and 5.0 percent nationally. In addition, our workforce has grown more than 11 percent over the last decade, the equivalent of 25,000 new jobs, and an increased labor pool of 238,000.6 This workforce development throughout the region is moving the economy of southwest Missouri in a positive direction.

The increase in job opportunities in the area is coupled with the need for better trained workers. A focus on economic development strategies to boost the economy and attract and retain qualified workers will be a necessity for southwest Missouri to remain economically competitive. Marketing the area as an attractive place to live and work will aid drawing and retaining qualified workers to southwest Missouri. This attraction and retention of additional qualified workers to the area will be essential in addressing the workforce skills gap. Existing and future skills gaps fall into four main categories: soft skills, thinking skills, technical skills, and basic skills. These areas of shortcomings directly affect workforce quality. In addition to these

6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, 2006-2016

7 Source: Springfield Chamber of Commerce Community Report Card 2015

focus areas, a lack of individuals with highly specialized skills participating in the workforce will affect the region. Developing and retaining a workforce with these high demand skills will be critically important. The creation of a workforce pipeline will be crucial to attracting and retaining employers, and maintaining regional growth in the years to come.7 A regional focus on both supply and quality of workers will be essential in addressing the skills shortage of the local workforce.

These future workforce needs will also assist OTC in planning for future academic programs. Aligning workforce demands and market conditions to the development of new academic programs positions the college to meet the workforce and employment needs of the community. This vision will aid the region’s future growth efforts by strengthening existing businesses as well as attracting new development, in addition to growing job opportunities and developing a trained and educated local workforce. Economy and Workforce Trends:

• Economic recovery is occurring, albeit slowly, in southwest Missouri.

• The region needs to compete to retain and attract qualified workers.

• The workforce skills gap will continue to effect employment in the region.

• Aligning academic programs with future workforce needs of southwest Missouri is essential.

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Table #1- Source: Springfield MSA Major Employers, 2015 http://springfieldregion.com/doing-business/major-employers.

Table #2 - Source: https://www.missourieconomy.org/pdfs/most_openings_ozark_wia_2012_2022.pdf.

TOP 10 EMPLOYERS IN THE SPRINGFIELD METRO AREA

1. Mercy Health Springfield Community

2. Cox Health Systems

3. Wal-Mart Stores

4. Springfield Public Schools

5. Bass Pro Shops / Tracker Marine

6. United States Government

7. State of Missouri

8. Missouri State University

9. Citizens Memorial Healthcare

10. City of Springfield

TOP 10 FASTEST GROWING OCCUPATIONS 2012 TO 2022 - OTC SERVICE REGION

1. Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers

2. Retail Salespersons and Cashiers

3. Customer Service Representatives

4. Registered Nurses

5. Laborers and Freight, Stock, And Material Movers, Handlers

6. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

7. Office Clerks, General

8. General and Operations Managers

9. Nursing Assistants

10. Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners

Public Policy & Politics

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I n addition to the effects of the workforce and economy, the continually changing political climate is one that impacts higher education. As

OTC looks toward the future, several state initiatives could greatly impact the college. While OTC has made significant progress in state funding over the past few years, the college’s public funding remains the lowest in the state and among the nation’s lowest.

While Missouri’s adoption of a higher education funding formula remains a possibility, the greater focus has been expanding the role of performance funding in allocation of state appropriations. OTC has maintained a leadership role in the development of measures used for this allocation and responding to statutory changes in the nature of performance funding. This should continue as we finalize the addition of new measures and evaluate any required changes to existing measures. Additionally, while the internal MCCA equity model has improved intra-sector equity, there is still inequity between sectors.

At both the state and federal level, financial aid reform continues to be a political focus. The majority of OTC’s students rely upon Federal Aid programs, such as Pell Grants, to provide them the opportunity to pursue postsecondary education. Legislative efforts to expand Pell Grant funding to include summer terms would have a significant impact on the ability of students to complete their degree in a timely manner. Maintaining the “Missouri Promise” offered by the A+ Scholarship program is also integral to providing accessible education to area students. The recent expansion of the program to private high schools offers OTC with an opportunity to serve more students.

Public Policy and Politics Trends: • Despite recent progress, the level of higher

education funding in Missouri continues to pose a challenge.

• OTC must maintain its leadership role in the implementation of performance funding.

• Inequity in higher education state appropriations between sectors is a persistent issue.

• Adequate funding for financial aid programs, particularly A+, is a top priority.

Technology

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A lways rapidly changing, technology continues to be an area of focus. OTC prides itself on being at the forefront of new technology to

best aid student learning. In the near- and long-term, many changes are expected related to technology and OTC. The majority of trends identified in this report were extracted from the Top 10 IT Issues, 2016: Divest, Reinvest and Differentiate, Educause Reviewer 2016, and Technology Outlook Community, Technical and Junior Colleges 2013-2018.

As technology and OTC both progress toward the future, many challenges and opportunities will emerge. The movement toward Bring Your Own Device (BYOD), or the policy of permitting employees and students to bring personally owned mobile devices to the college for use, poses significant security implications. The integration of social media into the learning environment also continues as an educational trend. As the pedagogical movement towards blended learning continues, the flipped classroom will continue to emerge as a technology trend in higher education. The flipped classroom shifts how time is spent in class, and focuses the gathering of information outside of the classroom. It could take the form of video lectures, podcasts, e-books, or collaboration in online communities. These technology movements present opportunities as well as challenges for OTC. Other near-term technology issues are geared toward course delivery formats. Technological advances related to wearable technology and next generation Learning Management Systems are areas of current technology change.

Looking at longer-term trends, several areas of importance also emerge. The use of digital identity is the key to seamless connections across multiple

domains and devices. It creates better individual profiles that will allow personalized content (tailored delivery of instructional material) based on historic consumption of users, as well as Cloud Services for students, including email and file storage. Higher education should also be prepared to provide similar services to their students. This must also be balanced with the need to maintain proper security and continuity of services, especially the services that are considered strategic differentiators.

Higher education institutions must become more data driven to capably respond to demands to become more effective and flexible and to meet both mission objectives and regulatory requirements. Business intelligence (BI) and analytics are the keys to unlocking insights that are contained in the numerous institutional data stores. Being able to see trends, discern correlations, move to predictive models, and use those models to take action is becoming a key strategic capability. Institutions have initially focused on applying analytics to the admissions process. More attention is being paid to student engagement, individual student learning, and analytics for student success. Both students and faculty are very interested in the use of student data to achieve these outcomes.

Mobile developing educational tools (portals, LMS, information, etc.) that are easily readable and interactive on a variety of mobile devices is a challenge for higher education environments. Students have a desire and a demand to be able to work, study, and email from desktop machines as well as mobile devices including tablets and phones. We have to make sure the information we produce and the products we purchase are capable of displaying appropriately on all of these devices. An example would be information

inside a Learning Management System (LMS). While historically students have accessed an LMS on a desktop machine to read information, upload assignments, and take quizzes, that is no longer the case. Our LMS needs to be functional across all devices, allowing for students to perform all necessary functions.

Cyber Security is another area that higher education must address. While not typically considered high value targets, higher education institutions are not immune to large vulnerabilities. It is important that we possess the technology and skills to remain up-to-date on the latest vulnerabilities and their remediation’s (patches, updates, etc.). We must also provide protections against internal threats, including permission audits, security hardware/software, and best-practice training. Balancing the need to provide adequate security while also servicing the academic needs of the college will remain a challenge

These technological advances represent future trends in higher education.

Common themes: Near-term trends, manifesting in one to three years,include: • Mobile Computing • Flipped Classroom • Social Media • Cloud Services for Students

Long-term trends, manifesting within four to fiveyears, include: • Digital Identity • Cyber Security • Virtual and Remote Laboratories

Technology (continued)

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