Complexity Thinking for Scrum Teams Anton Rossouw Project Director (AIPM-CPPD) Agile Management Coach
Jan 13, 2015
Complexity Thinking for
Scrum Teams
Anton Rossouw
Project Director (AIPM-CPPD)
Agile Management Coach
http://photographyhotspots.com.au/photography-location/bronte-
beach/
“I think the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity”
Stephen Hawking (1942-!)
“I wouldn't give a nickel for the simplicity on this side of
complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other
side of complexity.” Albert Einstein (1879-1955)
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple,
and wrong.” H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)
Three wise men…
Ukiyo-e woodblock print - “The Great Wave” by Hokusai from his subscription series, “Thirty-Six Views of Mt. Fuji,” completed between 1826 and
1833.
“When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the
war,”
General McChrystal
http://www.e-ir.info Publication “The Arab Spring of Discontent”
http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/tahir-square-is-back.html
“If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns of thought that
produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat
themselves… There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.”
Robert Pirzig,
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.
“95% of the problems in business are system driven and only 5% are people
driven.”
W. Edwards Deming
http://thenepoproject.org/2012/09/26/greeks-protest-against-austerity-with-general-strike/
Source: Brian Castellani - Complexity Science Map : http://www.art-sciencefactory.com/complexity-map_feb09.html
Not Everything is Complex
Source: Cilliers, P. (1998) Complexity and postmodernism: Understanding complex systems, London and New York, Routledge
• Complicated System
– Interrelated parts.
– Linear behaviour, Predictable.
– Equal to the sum of its parts.
• Complex System
– Connected elements.
– Non-Linear responses, unpredictable behaviour.
– Positive and Negative feedback, spontaneous emergence.
– Cannot be described by analysing the components alone.
Source: Sole, R., Goodwin, B., (2000) Signs of Life – How complexity pervades Biology, Basic Books, New York.
In Control Un-Control Out of Control
Stability Evolution/Revolution Catastrophe
Constrictive Principled Conflicted
Regimented Dynamic Chaotic
Source (22 June 2009) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system Advantage seeking time driven Social Agents
Non Linear Effects
Short Range
Interaction
Constraints
and Simple
Rules
Memory and Culture
Learning and
Capability
Energy Flows
Evolution or Collapse
Possibility Space
“Living”
System
Scrum artwork by Kenny Rubin http://scrumbook.wordpress.com
Action orientated sense-making group
under pressure and constraints that
responds constantly with and within its
environment to create emergent value
and learning experiences.
New definition of Scrum
You absorb complexity,
you don’t delude yourself
into thinking you can
eliminate it
Snowden, D.J. Boone, M., (2007) A Leader's Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76.
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Ord
ere
d
Un
ord
ere
d
Disorder
C=E
C===E C≈E
C≠E
Known- Unknowns Unknown - Unknowns
Unknowables Known - Knowns
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Strong central,
weak distributed Weak central,
weak distributed
Weak central,
strong distributed
Strong central,
strong distributed
Best
Practice
Specialist
Practice
Emergent
Practice
Novel
Practice
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Adoption
Adaption Exaption
Actaption
Probe
Sense
Respond
Sense
Analyse
Respond
Sense
Categorise
Respond
Act
Sense
Respond
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Collapse
Imposition
Converg
ence
Div
erg
ence
JIT Transfer
Exploration
Sta
ndard
isatio
n
Impro
vem
ent
Swarming
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Warm and Fuzzy
Distractions
True
Catastrophe
Constraints on system and agents appear
Agent interactions breaking down
Issues requiring expert intervention appear
Obvious
solutions and
opportunities
to crises
appear
Tyranny of
the Experts
Mind-
Numbing
Bureaucracy
Knowledge diffused, system
increasingly well understood
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple High
uncertain
risk of
catastrophe
Increasing
predictability,
agent
interactions
stabilizing
Expert
knowledge
breaks
down,
increasing
agent
interactions
• By 2016, the Cynefin
framework will be used by
10% of IT organisations as
a sense-making
methodology.
• Best practice methodologies
make us vulnerable to the
effects of increasing
complexity and ambiguity.
• Capture past stories and
conduct operational games.
New Vocabulary
• Complexity, Uncertainty, Ambiguity, Constraints.
• Intractable problems and Anticipatory Awareness.
• Messy coherent systems.
• Story telling and micro narrative exploration.
• Co-evolutionary coalescence.
• Articulated and unarticulated requirements.
• Serendipitous discovery.
• Exaptation and novel increments
• Starvation, Pressure, Perspective Shift.
Methods
• Butterfly Stamping
– Familiarisation, highlight perspective differences
• Future Backwards
– Clarify past perceptions and lessons, planning perspectives
• Anecdote Circles
– Narrative collection and understanding
• Safe-Fail Probes
– Find the best solution, test coherence
• Ritualised Dissent
– Challenge orthodoxy and consensus with diversity
Safe to Fail Probes
Butterfly Stamping Future Backwards
Anecdote Circles Ritual Dissent
Scrum artwork by Kenny Rubin http://scrumbook.wordpress.com
Where to now Scrum Master ?
• Create capability of Complexity Thinking
• Establish Cynefin model understanding
• Facilitate contextual sense-making
• Foster anticipatory awareness
• Implement methods during Scrum
• Exaptively co-evolve product and business
Resources
http://santafe.edu/ http://comdig.unam.mx/ http://www.plexusinstitute.org/
http://cognitive-edge.com/ http://www.youtube.com/w
atch?v=yXIePVkTY0A
http://www.complexityexplorer.org/