Complex Systems & Focused Solutions

L. Booth Sweeney October 21, 2010 UWEX

Complex Systems & Focused Solutions

Roll Your Sleeves Up and Try It!

Today

WORKING WITH SYSTEMS: • EXPERIENCE SYSTEMS MAKE-OVERS

AND SYSTEMS CONVERSATIONS

Learning Goals Learning Goals

Understanding systems

Making systems visible

Working with systems

Talking about Systems

…developing systems literacy

When we understand systems,

we…

Get off the problem-solving treadmill

Make more informed decisions

Move beyond laundry lists and bullet points…

to seeing patterns of interaction that more closely match the more interdependent, complex world we live in.

Stop jumping to blame a single cause for the challenges we encounter…

Instead, look for multiple causes, effects and unintended impacts

“Solve for Pattern”Solving more than one problem at a time (at least three) while minimizing or eliminating the creation of new problems. -- Wendell Berry

Give our attention to the whole and the parts

Let’s think about Joe Teen.

What does he think when buys a Coke?

Fossil FuelsManufacturing Global warming

Burning fossil fuels contributes to global warming.

Weather patterns

Environmental catastrophes

Destroy Infrastructure

More environmental disasters, more infrastructure destruction.

$$ spent on Infrastructure improvements

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Less $$ available for health care

Decline in healthcare increases fatality

rates

Less money available, decline in healthcare.

Buying a Coke then is a very serious matter…

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…one that requires an understanding of interconnections, dynamics, and

systems.

Systems Thinking Focuses on FEEDBACK to describe the interconnections and dynamics in the system

An open-loop, linear view asks: how should we react to the problem?

Situation

GoalProblem Decisions Results

A systems view asks: What is causing the problem and how have our past decisions and actions been part of it?

Situation

GoalProblem Decisions Results

Systems Thinking Focuses on FEEDBACK to describe the interconnections and dynamics in the system

An open-loop, linear view asks: how should we react to the problem?

Situation

GoalProblem Decisions Results

A systems view asks: What is causing the problem and how have our past decisions and actions been part of it?

Situation

GoalProblem Decisions Results

Balancing Feedback: Predator/Prey

Number of wolves

Number of rabbits

B

Population

Time

Reinforcing Feedback: Population Growth

Number of births

R

population

IllustrativePopulation

years1960 1980 2000

2. Name the key elements

3. Sketch the trends

1. Describe the challenge

5. Find Leverage

5. Find Leverage

4. Make System Visible

6. Share, Test & Improve

6. Share, Test & Improve

Applied Systems Thinking

Applied Systems Thinking

2. Name the Key ElementsWhat are the important drivers? Write these as variables. Describe any known direct causal connections.

3. Sketch the TrendsGraph behavior over time of the issue(s). Does the pattern suggest any familiar structures? Archetypes?

1. Describe the Challenge & Related VisionWhat are we concerned about? What is happening over time? What is the future we want to see created?

6. Share, Test & ImproveGet feedback from others. Find data. Perhaps use simulation modeling. Act and observe real world results.

6. Share, Test & ImproveGet feedback from others. Find data. Perhaps use simulation modeling. Act and observe real world results.

5. Find LeverageWhat changes would lead to a more desirable behavior? What strategy could you use to achieve these changes?

5. Find LeverageWhat changes would lead to a more desirable behavior? What strategy could you use to achieve these changes?

4. Make the System Visible • Ask: What structure or set of relationships might be driving the behavior or interest?

• Start with a key element

• Add causes & consequences(option: connection circles)

• Close feedback loops

OR: • Start with a key feedback loop or an appropriate archetype structure

• Add feedback as needed to explain the behavior

Sometimes We Find “Leverage Points” -- Where Small Actions Yield Large Results

“Maybe we should write that spot down.”

Applied Systems Thinking

1. Describe the challenge

Adapted from theSustainability Institute

“Air quality in our town is getting worse.

What is driving this trend and what would address the problem over the coming years?”

Systems Thinking Flow

2. Name the key elements

1. Describe the challenge

Adapted from theSustainability Institute

•Number of high-particulate days

•Bad press

•Attractiveness of region

(in migration)

•Population

•Health problems (asthma rates)

•Pressure for regulation

•Regulation requiring scrubbers

•Use of scrubbers

Systems Thinking Flow

2. Name the key elements

1. Describe the challenge

Adapted from theSustainability Institute

•Number of high-particulate days

•Bad press

•Attractiveness of region

(in migration)

•Population

•Health problems (asthma rates)

•Pressure for regulation

•Regulation requiring scrubbers

•Use of scrubbers

Applied Systems Thinking

2. Name Key Elements

3. Sketch the Trends

1. Describe the challenge

Expected future trend

Goal

Years

1980 2000 20101990

Observed pastbehavior

history future

Number of high particulate days per year

Applied Systems Thinking

2. Name Key Elements

3. Sketch the Trends

1. Describe the challenge

4. Make the System Visible

Adapted from theSustainability Institute

Applied Systems Thinking

2. Name key elements

3. Sketch the trends

1. Describe the challenge

5. Find leverage

5. Find leverage

4. Make the system visible

Adapted from theSustainability Institute

2. Name the key elements

3. Sketch the trends

1. Describe the challenge

5. Find Leverage

5. Find Leverage

4. Make System Visible

6. Share, Test & Improve

6. Share, Test & Improve

Applied Systems Thinking

Options (using 6 steps):

1. Example from your work

2. Apply to this question:

How to expand the network of sustainable communities in Wisconsin?

Try it yourself