H Y D R O L O G Y P R O JE C T Technical Assistance COMPILATION OF RAINFALL DATA • TRANSFORMATION OF OBSERVED DATA * FROM ONE TIME INTERVAL TO ANOTHER * FROM POINT TO AREAL ESTIMATES * NON-EQUIDISTANT TO EQUIDISTANT * ONE UNIT TO ANOTHER • DERIVED STATISTICS * MIN./MEAN/MAX. SERIES, PERCENTILES ETC. • OBJECTIVES * DATA VALIDATION - WHOLE TO PART!! * SUMMARISING LARGE DATA VOLUMES - REPORTING – STAGES OF COMPILATION * DATA VALIDATION - SDDPC, DDPC, SDPC * FINALISATION - SDPC & AFTER CORRECTION/COMPLETION OHS - 1
COMPILATION OF RAINFALL DATA. TRANSFORMATION OF OBSERVED DATA FROM ONE TIME INTERVAL TO ANOTHER FROM POINT TO AREAL ESTIMATES NON-EQUIDISTANT TO EQUIDISTANT ONE UNIT TO ANOTHER DERIVED STATISTICS MIN./MEAN/MAX. SERIES, PERCENTILES ETC. OBJECTIVES DATA VALIDATION - WHOLE TO PART!! - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
COMPILATION OF RAINFALL DATA
• TRANSFORMATION OF OBSERVED DATA* FROM ONE TIME INTERVAL TO ANOTHER
* FROM POINT TO AREAL ESTIMATES
* NON-EQUIDISTANT TO EQUIDISTANT
* ONE UNIT TO ANOTHER
• DERIVED STATISTICS* MIN./MEAN/MAX. SERIES, PERCENTILES ETC.
• OBJECTIVES* DATA VALIDATION - WHOLE TO PART!!
* SUMMARISING LARGE DATA VOLUMES - REPORTING
– STAGES OF COMPILATION* DATA VALIDATION - SDDPC, DDPC, SDPC
* FINALISATION - SDPC & AFTER CORRECTION/COMPLETION
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING AND INVERSE DISTANCE METHOD
• PROCEDURE:– A DENSE GRID IS PUT OVER THE CATCHMENT– FOR EACH GRID-POINT A RAINFALL ESTIMATE IS
MADE BASED ON RAINFALL OBSERVED AT AVAILABLE STATIONS
– RAINFALL ESTIMATE:
– STATION WEIGHTS:* KRIGING: BASED ON SPATIAL CORRELATION
STRUCTURE RAINFALL FIELD AS FORMULATED IN SEMIVARIOGRAM
* INVERSE DISTANCE: SOLELY DETERMINED BY DISTANCE BETWEEN GRIDPOINT AND OBSERVATION STATION
N
1kkk,00 P.wPe
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
12.3
9.2
9.1
7.2
7.0
4.0station
ESTIMATE OF RAINFALL FOR EACH GRIDPOINT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS USING WEIGHTS DETERMINED BY KRIGING OR
INVERSE DISTANCE
ESTIMATE OF RAINFALL FOR EACH GRIDPOINT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS USING WEIGHTS DETERMINED BY KRIGING OR
INVERSE DISTANCE
DENSE GRID OVER CATCHMENT
DENSE GRID OVER CATCHMENT
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING AND RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING AND INVERSE DISTANCE METHODINVERSE DISTANCE METHOD
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING AND RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING AND INVERSE DISTANCE METHODINVERSE DISTANCE METHOD
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (1)
• RAINFALL ESTIMATE AT EACH GRIDPOINT:
Pe0=w0,k.Pk for k=1,..,N N=number of stations
• PROPERTIES OF WEIGHTS w0,k :
– WEIGHTS ARE LINEAR
– WEIGHTS LEAD TO UNBIASED ESTIMATE
– WEIGHTS MINIMISE ERROR VARIANCE FOR ESTIMATES AT THE GRIDPOINTS
• ADVANTAGES OF KRIGING:
– PROVIDES BEST LINEAR ESTIMATE FOR RAINFALL AT A POINT
– PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY OF ESTIMATE, WHICH IS A USEFUL PROPERTY WHEN OPTIMISING THE NETWORK
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (2)
• ESTIMATION ERROR e0 AT GRID-LOCATION “0”
e0=Pe0-P0
where: Pe0 & P0= est. and true rainfall at “0” resp.
• TO QUANTIFY ERROR HYPOTHESIS ON TRUE RAINFALL P0 IS REQUIRED. IN ORDINARY KRIGING ONE ASSUMES:– RAINFALL IN BASIN IS STATISTICALLY HOMOGENEOUS
– AT ALL OBSERVATION STATIONS RAINFALL IS GOVERNED BY SAME PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
– CONSEQUENTLY, AT ALL GRID-POINTS THAT SAME PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ALSO APPLIES
– HENCE, ANY PAIR OF LOCATIONS HAS A JOINT PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION THAT DEPENDS ONLY ON DISTANCE AND NOT ON LOCATION
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (3)
• ASSUMPTIONS IMPLY:– AT ALL LOCATIONS E[P(x1)] = E[P(x1-d)]
– COVARIANCE BETWEEN ANY PAIR OF LOCATIONS IS ONLY FUNCTION OF d: COV(d)
• UNBIASEDNESS IMPLIES:– E[e0]=0
– so: E[w0,k.Pk]-E[P]=0 or: E[P]{w0,k-1}=0
– hence: w0,k=1
• MINIMISATION OF ERROR VARIANCE se2:
– se2=E{(Pe0-P))2]
– EQUATING N-FIRST PARTIAL DERIVATIVES OF se2 TO 0
– ADD ONE MORE EQUATION WITH LAGRANGIAN MULTIPLIER TO SATISFY CONDITION w0,k=1
– HENCE N+1 EQUATIONS ARE SOLVED
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (4)
• SET OF EQ. = ORDINARY KRIGING SYSTEM C.w = D C11………….C1N 1 w0,1 C0,1
C = . . . w = . D = . CN1………….CNN 1 w0,N C0,N
1……………….. 0 1
• STATION WEIGHTS FOLLOW FROM: w =C-1.D Note: C-1 is to be determined only once
D differs for every location “0”
• ERROR VARIANCE: se
2 = sP2 - wT.D (which is zero at observation locations)
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (5)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (5)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (5)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (5)
1
r0
Distance d
Exponential spatial correlation functionExponential spatial correlation function
Exponential spatial correlationfunction:
r(d) = r0 exp(- d / d0)
Exponential spatial correlationfunction:
r(d) = r0 exp(- d / d0)
0
0.37r0
d0
co
rrela
tio
n
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
C0 + C1
C1
Nugget effectNugget effect
Distance da
Exponential covariance functionExponential covariance function
Covariance function:
C(d) = C0 + C1 for d = 0
C(d) = C1 exp(- 3d / a) for d > 0
Covariance function:
C(d) = C0 + C1 for d = 0
C(d) = C1 exp(- 3d / a) for d > 0
Range = aRange = a (C(a) = 0.05C1 0 )(C(a) = 0.05C1 0 )
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (6)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (6)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (6)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (6)
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (7)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (7)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (7)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (7)
C0 + C1
Distan ce da
Exponentialvariogram
Exponentialvariogram
Variogram function:
(d) = 0 for d = 0
(d) = C0 + C1 (1- exp(- 3d / a) for d > 0
Variogram function:
(d) = 0 for d = 0
(d) = C0 + C1 (1- exp(- 3d / a) for d > 0
Rang e = aRang e = a
Nug get effectNug get effect
P2P
2
C0
(a) C0 + C1Sil lS il l
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (8)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (8)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (8)RAINFALL INTERPOLATION BY KRIGING (8)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 5 10 15 20 25
Spherical model
Gaussian model
Exponential model
Distance (d)
(sem
i-)v
ario
gra
m
(d)
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
126
128130
132
134136
138
140
142144
146
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80
1
2
34
56
7
Point to be estimated
X-direction
Y-d
irec
tion POINT TO BE
ESTIMATED
POINT TO BE ESTIMATED
NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SEMI-VARIOGRAM-MODEL PARAMETERSSEMI-VARIOGRAM-MODEL PARAMETERS NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SEMI-VARIOGRAM MODELS IN SENSITIVITY SEMI-VARIOGRAM MODELS IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSISANALYSIS
SEMI-VARIOGRAM MODELS IN SENSITIVITY SEMI-VARIOGRAM MODELS IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSISANALYSIS
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Distance (d)
d
11
22
33
44
55
Cases
1 = Exp, C0=0, C1=10, a=10
2 = Exp, C0=0, C1=20, a=10
3= Gau, C0=0, C1=10, a=10
4= Exp, C0=5, C1= 5, a=10
5= Exp, C0=0, C1=10, a=20
Cases
1 = Exp, C0=0, C1=10, a=10
2 = Exp, C0=0, C1=20, a=10
3= Gau, C0=0, C1=10, a=10
4= Exp, C0=5, C1= 5, a=10
5= Exp, C0=0, C1=10, a=20
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
SPATIAL COVARIANCE MODELS IN SPATIAL COVARIANCE MODELS IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSISSENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SPATIAL COVARIANCE MODELS IN SPATIAL COVARIANCE MODELS IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSISSENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Distance (d)
Co
vari
ance
C(d
)
Cases
1
2
3
4
5
Cases
1
2
3
4
5
HYDROLOGY PROJECTTechnical Assistance
126
128130
132
134136
138
140
142144
146
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80
1
2
34
56
7
Point to be estimated
X-direction
Y-d
irec
tion POINT TO BE
ESTIMATED
POINT TO BE ESTIMATED
NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SEMI-VARIOGRAM-MODEL PARAMETERSSEMI-VARIOGRAM-MODEL PARAMETERS NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS