WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011 Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers ? José A. Isanta Head of Unit (ITS Survey) e-mail: [email protected]Business Statistics Directorate Compilation of International Trade-in- Services Statistics in Spain: ITRS vs. Enterprise Survey www.ine.es
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Compilation of International Trade-in- Services Statistics in Spain: ITRS vs. Enterprise Survey
Compilation of International Trade-in- Services Statistics in Spain: ITRS vs. Enterprise Survey. José A. Isanta Head of Unit (ITS Survey) e-mail: [email protected] Business Statistics Directorate. www.ine.es. Institutional set-up. General description of the BoP/ITS collection system. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
Compilation of International Trade-in- Services Statistics in
Spain: ITRS vs. Enterprise Survey
www.ine.es
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
Institutional set-up. General description of the BoP/ITS collection
system-Banco de España (BE) is responsible for compiling and disseminating BoP statistics in Spain
-BoP statistics are mainly based on ITRS and some direct reporting
-BoP item Other Services is currently estimated by ITRS. Future: INE’s ITS Survey??
-The ITS survey was jointly designed by INE and BE in 2004-2005 as a precaution against ITRS probable expiration in the future
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
Institutional agreement INE-BE to estimate BoP-Other Services with a
survey-Gentlemen’s agreement to be formalised in near future when survey reliability is verified
-The survey is included in the National Statistical Plan and is fully financed by INE
-INE sends survey’s micro and macro data to BE to be compared to those obtained by ITRS -Survey results (levels) are not disseminated by INE, only indices and yearly variation rates
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
INE-BE responsibilities for the survey
INE is responsible for,
- Building & maintaining business registers- Design, programming & printing all questionnaires- Sampling design- Fieldwork organisation- Training staff- Edition and imputation procs.- Grossing-up- Final Tabulations- Methods, studies and analysis (eg: response comparison, geographic breakdown)
BE is responsible for,
- Design questionnaires with INE- Sending quarterly ITRS reporters/figures on foreign receipts & payments (Other Services) to INE- Design the Survey’s Collection and Methods Manual with INE- Participate in training courses to INE’s fieldwork statisticians - Methods, studies and analysis (eg: microdata comparison)
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
The Survey
Aim
Value of imports and exports of services by residents of Spain vis-à-vis non- residents.Travel and transactions through commercial presence are outside the scope of the survey
Scope
Population: Resident institutional units (enterprises or other organisations). Time scope (fequency of reporting): the calendar quarter
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
Sampling Design(introduction)
-Lack of an administrative register or another source to play the role of a single population frame to select a representative sample.
-The information of reporters on foreign receipts and payments of Other services (ITRS) is a good starting point.
- Additionally, it was decided to use other populations coming from different Spanish institutions.
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
SP1: Register of reporters on foreign receipts and payments on Other services (ITRS)
Monthly/Quarterly
F1: Stable units from SP1
Spanish Tax Agency (TA)
SP2: Register of Large enterprises’ VAT returns
Monthly/Monthly
F2.1:VAT returns on international transactions in goods or services?
F2.2: VAT returns on domestic transactions
Instituto Nacional de Estadística(INE)
SP3: Central Business Register
Yearly
F3: SP3 – enterprises with NACE: A, B, L, P, Q - enterprises with fewer than 10 employees
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
Sampling Design
(Sampling procedure)
-Sampling technique: A classical stratified random sampling procedure on each frame with equal probability of selection, but selecting more of the sample in those strata with a higher number of enterprises trading in services with non-residents according to BE data.
-Stratification variables: principal economic activity at the 2-digit level of NACE rev.1 and enterprise size measured in number of employees (size intervals). Geographical dimension has not so far been used when stratifying
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
Sample size and rates: 2005 vs. 2010
2005
N n n/N(%)
BE 4,126 4,126 100%
TA.1 12,094 1,581 13.07%
TA.2 9,370 1,102 11.76%
INE 146,402
3,495 2.39%
TOTAL 171,992
10,304
6%
2010 N n n/N(%)
# Strata
BE 5,193 5,193 100% 40
TA.1 14,773 1,453 9.84% 54
TA.2 13,306 982 7.38% 55
INE 161,452 2,987 1.85% 147
TOTAL 194,724 10,615 5.45% 296
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
Questionnaire
Filter question: Did you export or import services during the reference quarter ?
Yes/No
Two main tables
- Services Filter Table to help respondents tick the correct service’s box
- Table to register import/export values and counterpart country for the services previously ticked
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
BoP-Other Services (ITRS) vs. ITS (Survey)
(Comparison by type of service)
Exports by Type of Service(2009)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Type of Service
mio€
BoP (ITRS)
ITS (Survey)
Imports by Type of Service (2009)
05.000
10.00015.00020.00025.000
Type of Service
mio€
BoP (ITRS)
ITS (Survey)
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
Strengths and weaknesses of the ITS collection systems
ITRS strengths:
- Census of foreign receipts and payments on services transactions over threshold (50,000 EUR)
ITRS weaknesses:
- Threshold increases- EC and ECB Regulations on statistics and finance- Integration of bank settlements and netting/clearing settlements-Cash accounting principle
Conclusion: More than 50% of surveyed units do not report exports or imports in the questionnaire. Do all null reporters cheat or don’t they really trade services at international level ?
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
Matching units exports (mio€) Matching units imports (mio€)
Conclusions:Due to ‘cheats’ or ‘lack of understanding’ the survey supposedly misses more than 8% of total BoP-Other services exports and imports. In the case of stable units it reaches 10%
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
BoP-Other Services (ITRS) vs. ITS (Survey)
(Non-matching units analysis)
Conclusions: 1.Survey should include more ITRS reporters in the sample and 2. ITRS is missing some reporters captured randomly by the survey
BoP-Other Services reporters (ITRS), receipts and paymentsReporters Receipts Payments
Note: Reporting threshold up to 50,000 EUR came into effect in 2008 (Spain). In 2007, around 60% of reporters reported transaction values below 50,000 EUR
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
High degree of concentration
Conclusion: On average, more than 3000 reporters were necessary in 1999-2002 to cover 80% of both exports and imports of services. In 2009 only 1245 reporters. Problem: Reporters volatility (10% decrease of receipts + payments between 2008 and 2009)
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the
right numbers ?
What’s next….- Regulation EC 924/2009 related to border payments in the Community and SEPA (ITRS expiration by law ??). -Joint decision BE-INE about the survey’s future:
* Sampling re-design, incorporating most of ITRS reporters into the sample? * Due to the high degree of concentration just have an Annual ITS Survey and a Quarterly
ITS Survey able to capture 80% of total exports and imports (UK model).*Study: Directives 2008/8/CE and 2008/9/CE related to the place of services provision and VAT returns
-Adoption of NACE 2009, 6BPM, MSITS and EBOPS 2010.-
WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011
Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the