www.toddbuchholz.com www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook @Rushbook Competing in a Chaotic Competing in a Chaotic Economy Economy Todd Buchholz Todd Buchholz 1
Dec 31, 2015
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Competing in a Chaotic EconomyCompeting in a Chaotic EconomyTodd BuchholzTodd Buchholz
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Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger?Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger?
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Hyper-CompetitionHyper-Competition
SpeedSpeed ScissorsScissors
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Age of AnxietyAge of Anxiety
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New Silk RoutesNew Silk Routes
RANK 1999RANK 1999 20052005
SinopecSinopec 50 750 7
SabicSabic 32 1032 10
Formosa PlFormosa Pl 47 11 47 11
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Middle East Chemical Plantsquadruple 1990-2005
GCC $35b trade with AsiaGCC FTA deals with China, India, NZ
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Pick Up a ClubPick Up a Club
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No “Skin in the Game”No “Skin in the Game”
““trust me” papertrust me” paper Avoid Basel – new Avoid Basel – new
paper after LTCMpaper after LTCM Avalanche of defaults, Avalanche of defaults,
downgrades, CDS, downgrades, CDS, mark-to-market, mark-to-market, pension exitspension exits
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Free Trade Backlash:Free Trade Backlash:
Colombia, Panama FTAColombia, Panama FTA Sovereign Wealth FearsSovereign Wealth Fears ““Buy America?”Buy America?” India v. Steel; Russia v. India v. Steel; Russia v.
Cars and Chickens; Cars and Chickens; Argentina v. auto parts; Argentina v. auto parts;
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Who’s This?Who’s This?
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A Miracle of the Market?
What Is Sustainable?
Are We All Greek?
Who’s Broke Now?
Who do we work for?
“For the next 30 years, we all work for the Germans”
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The High Price of a Free The High Price of a Free Lunch? Lunch?
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Taking from Peter…
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A.P. Giannini: Gladiator of A.P. Giannini: Gladiator of FinanceFinance
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Compete on Expertise and Compete on Expertise and ServiceService
__ ____ ____ __ __ ____ ____ __ ______ ______
__ ___________ _________ __ ______ _______ ______ _____ _____ _ __________ _____ _ __________
__ _____ _____ __ _____ _____ __ _______ _____
How many live in How many live in Arizona?Arizona?
Two languagesTwo languages Non-banker hoursNon-banker hours ““women’s women’s
department” 3 of first department” 3 of first 11 loans to women11 loans to women
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No Excuses!
(c)Todd G. Buchholz 2012 20
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We Can Beat Our FOE’s
• Federal Reserve Hiked Rates Too Much
• OPEC Tightened the Noose
• Euro Fell Too Far
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Back to the ’70s?Back to the ’70s?
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Is Inflation Baked in the Cake?
Any Job Hope?
Consumers Are Tired – of Not Spending
Real Estate?
Coming June 2012…
Men and Women in Black
Overreaching?
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Does China Save Capitalism?Does China Save Capitalism?
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China Aging China Aging
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The Race for IQ PointsThe Race for IQ Points1992-20021992-2002
StevedoresStevedores -17%-17% TimberTimber -32%-32% Farm Farm -20%-20% Sewing Sewing -50%-50% TypesettersTypesetters -62%-62%
Elect. EngineersElect. Engineers +28% +28% Med. ScientistsMed. Scientists +33% +33% ArchitectsArchitects +44% +44% Legal AssistantsLegal Assistants +66% +66% Fin. ServicesFin. Services +78% +78%
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Peak Oil or Peak People?Peak Oil or Peak People? ________ ________
___________ ________ ___________ ________ ____ _____ ____ _____
___________ ___________ __________ ________ __________ ________ ___ ___
Petroleum engineering students fall 90% since 1981
Agricultural scientists Agricultural scientists stagnant for 20 yearsstagnant for 20 years
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