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TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP ON AGRICULTURAL GREENHOUSE GASES (T-AGG) SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT Comparison of Three Biogeochemical Process Models for Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Effects of Agricultural Management compiled by Lydia P. Olander Daniella Malin with contributions from Stephen Del Grosso Cesar Izaurralde Keith Paustian William Salas October 2010 DRAFT
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Comparison of Three Biogeochemical Process

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Page 1: Comparison of Three Biogeochemical Process

TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP ON AGRICULTURAL GREENHOUSE GASES (T-AGG) SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT

Comparison of Three Biogeochemical Process Models for Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Effects of Agricultural Management

compiled byLydia P. OlanderDaniella Malin

with contributions fromStephen Del GrossoCesar IzaurraldeKeith PaustianWilliam Salas

October 2010

DRAFT

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Technical Working Group on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases Supplemental Report

Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions

DRAFT

Comparison of Three Biogeochemical Process Models for Quantifying Greenhouse

Gas Effects of Agricultural Management

October 2010

compiled by Lydia P. Olander Daniella Malin

with contributions from Stephen Del Grosso

Cesar Izaurralde Keith Paustian William Salas

The authors acknowledge the research assistance of Samantha Sifleet and the editing assistance of Paul Brantley.

This work has been funded through the generous support of the David and Lucile Packard Foundation

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DRAFT Supplemental Report for T-AGG: Three Process Models September 2010

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Process-based biogeochemical models can simulate GHG dynamics under a range of changing environmental (soil physical properties, climate, topography, previous land management) and management variables (cropping, livestock, manure, grazing practices), while capturing temporal and spatial variability. These models are designed to work at site scale, and are calibrated and tested using data from long-term controlled experiments and field observations. They can produce Tier-2 or Tier-3 estimates of GHG change reasonably well, but require significant environmental and agricultural data inputs1 and detailed site knowledge.

This supplemental report is a detailed look at three biogeochemical process models that are widely used in the United States to quantify greenhouse gases (GHGs) from agriculture and other land uses. These models tend to be well parameterized for use in the U.S. The three models covered here are DAYCENT, DNDC, and EPIC/APEX. The information below is based on information gathered from members of the modeling teams. Below we review information on the GHG, management practice, and crop coverage of these models. We also share some summary information about the accuracy and precision of the models.

These models can all quantify soil carbon dynamics and on-site nitrous oxide (N2O) (Table 1). For off-site nitrous oxide emissions the models estimate nitrogen leaching and volatilization loss rates, which can then be combined with the IPCC Tier 1 emissions factor to determine N2O emissions from these sources. Only DNDC has fully modeled methane at this point, while EPIC is the only model that includes GHGs from upstream and offset energy and fuel use. Most of the models have relatively full coverage for important management practices, but a subset of these, particularly those related to nitrous oxide, methane management, and biochar need more testing and calibration (Table 2). The models include a wide variety of crop types, which varies somewhat by model (Table 3). Historically, the models have been used for commodity crops, thus specialty crops are often missing. However there has been a significant push to expand the models to include specialty crops.

1 Crop rotations and crop management factors, such as seeding dates, harvesting dates, tillage type, fertilizer rates, fertilizer type and timing, residue rates and management, etc.

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DRAFT Supplemental Report for T-AGG: Three Process Models September 2010

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Table 1: greenhouse gases measured in three of the biogeochemical process models that can quantify GHG emissions from land use. GHG Measured DAYCENT DNDC EPIC/APEX Electricity, Fuel, and Input energy No No Yes Soil Carbon Sequestration yes (Tier 3) yes (Tier 3) yes (Tier 3) N20* yes (Tier 3): leaky pipe approach

to N2O emissions – calculated on basis of % of N mineralization subject to soil environment conditions

yes (Tier 3): soil Eh and microbial population dynamics

yes (Tier 3): based on electron flow, oxygen availability and competitive inhibition.

CH4 Uptake Only yes (Tier 3) In progress * On-site N2O emissions are included directly in the models. For off-site N2O the models can estimate nitrogen lost through leaching and volatilization, which can then be combined with the IPCC emissions factor to calculate off-site N2O emissions.

Legend: Green Yes, is included in model.

Yellow Yes, is included in model. However, there are special considerations to be noted.

Red No, is not included in the model.

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Table 2: Management activities included in three of the biogeochemical process models that can quantify GHG emissions from land use. Management Practice* DAYCENT DNDC EPIC/APEX Conventional to conservation till yes – universal yes – universal yes Conventional to no-till yes – universal yes – universal yes Conservation till to no-till yes – universal yes – universal yes Switch from irrigated to dry land yes – universal yes – universal yes Use winter cover crops yes – universal yes – universal yes Eliminate summer fallow yes – universal yes – universal yes Intensify cropping (more crops/year) yes – universal yes – universal yes

Switch annual crops (change rotations ) yes – universal yes – universal yes

Include perennial crops in annual crop rotations yes – universal yes – universal (new crops will

need to be calibrated) yes – universal (new crops will need to be calibrated)

Short rotation woody crops yes – universal yes – universal yes Irrigation improvements (drip, supplemental…) model simulates irrigation, but can't

distinguish types

yes (DNDC distinguishes sprinkler, flood, and drip; manual or automatic based on water stress)

yes (different types; manual or automatic based on water stress)

Agroforestry (windbreaks, buffers, etc.) yes – universal yes – universal (by

compartmentalizing the fields) yes – both in EPIC and APEX

Herbaceous buffers possible but has not been tested possible but has not been tested yes – explicit in APEX Application of organic materials (esp. manure) yes – universal yes – universal yes (beef, dairy, swine, poultry)

Application of biochar possible but has not been tested possible but has not been tested Under consideration Reduce N application rate yes – universal yes – universal yes Change fertilizer N source yes – universal (only distinguished

NO3 from NH4) yes – universal (7 distinct chemical fertilizer types)

yes – single and compound fertilizers

Change fertilizer N timing yes – universal yes – universal yes – flexible application based on

N test or plant N stress Change fertilizer N placement

No yes – universal (user prescribe depth, only limited testing) yes – (broadcast, banding)

Use nitrification inhibitors yes – universal (limited testing) yes – universal (limited testing) Not tested yet

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Management Practice* DAYCENT DNDC EPIC/APEX Improved manure application to soils management (N2O) yes – universal (amount and type) yes – universal (amount and type) Not tested yet

Irrigation management for N2O yes – universal (only amount) yes – universal (only amount) Not tested yet Manage histosols to reduce GHG emissions No yes (new application in CA, needs

calibration) Not tested yet

Drainage on croplands, N2O & CH4 yes – universal (CH4 not included) yes – universal

EPIC/APEX can simulate drainage; no test of drainage and N2O and CH4

Rice water management for CH4 no yes – universal no Improved grazing management, range yes – universal yes – universal yes

Improved grazing management, pasture yes – universal yes – universal yes

Fertilizing grazing lands yes – universal yes – universal yes Irrigation management for grazing lands yes – universal yes – universal yes

Species composition on grazing lands

model represents vegetation mix, not species

No – users would have to define special mix yes (up to 10 species)

Grazing land fire management yes – universal yes – universal yes Rotational grazing

yes – universal

yes – universal (grass model requires calibration and testing of physiological response to grazing intensity)

yes (new grazing model in APEX)

Manure management (lagoon, compost etc) No

yes (new Manure model with enteric fermentation requires more testing, continued development)

yes (in APEX)

Transition to natural land (forests, native grasslands, wetlands) yes – universal yes (wetland/forest DNDC) yes (in APEX) – in development

(have not done wetlands)

* Inclusion of a management practice and variations on those activities (e.g., 7 chemical fertilizer types), means that the models include a process to estimate impacts of the practice, but does not guarantee that the science is fully developed. For example, biochar and fertilizer types are active areas of research with little scientific consensus on the basic process and outcomes of implementing the practice.

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Table 3: Crops included in three of the biogeochemical process models that can quantify GHG emissions from land use. DAYCENT DNDC EPIC/APEX Alfalfa Alpine grass Annual grasses Austrian winter pea Barley Beans C3 grass C4 grass Cassava Clover Clover/grass mixture Corn Cotton Fallow Grassland Grass clover pasture Hairy vetch Legume_hay Millet Mixed_cover_crop Miscanthus Non_legume_hay Oats Peanut Perennial_grass Potato Rapeseeds Ratooned_Sugarcane Rye Safflower Sedge Silage_corn Sorghum Soybean Spring_wheat Sugarcane Sunflower Switchgrass Tobacco Tomato Tropical grass Winter wheat Apple Citrus Grape Peach Pear Pecan Temperate mixed deciduous forest Temperate coniferous forest Tropical deciduous forest Topical evergreen forest Mediterranean shrubland Savanna Shrubland

Alfalfa Artichoke Baby_spinach Banana Barley Beans Beet Berries Brussels_sprout California_Broccoli Cassava Celery Citrus Corn Cotton DW_rice edible_amaranth Fallow Flax Fruit_trees Grape Grassland Green_onion Green_tea Hops Legume_hay Lettuce Millet Mixed_cover_crop Non_legume_hay Nursery_flowers Oats Onion Paddy_rice Palm Peanut pepper Perennial_grass Potato radish Rainfed_rice Rapeseeds Ratooned_Sugarcane Rye Safflower Sedge Shrub_blueoak Silage_corn Sorghum Soybean Spring_wheat Strawberry Sugarcane Sunflower Tobacco Tomato Truck_crops Upland_rice Vegetables Wetland_grass Winter_wheat Wine grape -low vigor

BARLEY CANOLA-ARGENTINE CANOLA-POLISH CORN CORN SILAGE DURUM WHEAT FIELD PEA FLAX GRAIN SORGHUM LENTIL OAT PEANUT PICKER COTTON RICE RYE SORGHUM HAY SOYBEAN SPRING WHEAT STRIPPER COTTON SUNFLOWER WINTER PEA WINTER WHEAT ALFALFA ALTAI WILDRYE ANNUAL RYEGRASS BAHIAGRASS BIG BLUESTEM BROMEGRASS BUCKWHEAT BUFFALOGRASS CHEATGRASS CLOVER ALSIKE COASTAL BERMUDA COCKLEBUR CRESTED WHEATGRASS EASTERN GAMAGRASS FESCUE GIANT FOXTAIL GRAMAGRASS GREEN FOXTAIL JOHNSONGRASS LITTLE BLUESTEMGR LOVEGRASS MISCANTHUS NORTHERN WHEATGRASS ORCHARDGRASS PEARL MILLET POA PROSO MILLET RANGE RED CLOVER RUSSIAN WILDRYE SEABUCKTHORN SIDEOAT GRAMA SLENDER WHEATGRASS SMOOTH BROME SUMMER PASTURE SWEET CLOVER SWITCHGRASS TIMOTHY VELVETLEAF

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DAYCENT DNDC EPIC/APEX Wine grape -high vigor WESTERN WHEATGRASS

WINTER PASTURE ASPARAGUS BROCCOLI CABBAGE CANTALOUPE CARROTS CAULIFLOWER CELERY CUCUMBERS EGGPLANT GREENBEANS HONEYDEWMELON LEAFLETTUCE LETTUCE LIMABEANS ONIONS PEAS PEPPERS POTATOES SPINACH STRAWBERRIES SUGARBEETS SUGARCANE SWEETCORN SWEETPOTATOES TOBACCO TOMATOES WATERMELON CASSAVA CHICKPEA COWPEA DRYBEAN FABABEAN LESPEDEZA YAM APPLE ASH BLACKLOCUST COFFEE GRAPE MESQUITE OAK PINE POPLAR SWEETGUM TEMPERATE DECIDUOUS FOREST TEMPERATE EVERGREEN FOREST TROPICAL EVERGREEN FOREST

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Table 4. Data inputs required for three processes based biogeochemical models. DAYCENT DNDC APEX(EPIC)

* = included in simplified model Soil properties (minimum set)

Texture class yes (% sand and % clay) *yes (texture or clay fraction – 12 soil types: sand, loamy sand, sandy loam, silt loam, loam, sandy clay loam, silty clay loam, clay loam, sandy clay, silty clay, clay, and organic soil)

yes; user specifies %sand and %silt

Depth of soil profile yes yes for shallow profile (<1 meter) (new version with user specified soil layers, not yet extensively tested) yes

Bulk density yes yes (0–10 cm)

Yes (bulk density is dynamic and is affected by erosion (surface), tillage, and soil organic matter)

Soil Organic C no yes (0–5 cm)* yes pH yes yes* yes, and electrical conductivity

Clay content yes yes sand and silt content (as well as calcium carbonate)

Soil

Drainage yes water-logged soils yes water-logged soils yes, full hydrology competent Crop type yes yes* yes Crop rotation yes yes yes – including intercropping Planting dates Yes – can estimate yes yes – can estimate Cover crop? yes yes yes Harvest dates Yes – can estimate yes yes – can estimate Residue management (eg burned, removed, left, plowed in) yes

yes (in terms of fraction of residue left in field)* yes

Crop

Perennial crops yes yes yes Tillage description yes yes (depth of each event) yes – need implements Tillage Tillage dates yes yes yes – can estimate

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DRAFT Supplemental Report for T-AGG: Three Process Models September 2010

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DAYCENT DNDC APEX(EPIC) Amounts yes yes* yes Application dates yes yes yes – can estimate

Method no yes (surface, injection or fertigation) yes

Type nitrate vs. ammonium Yes (7 chemical types) yes

Fertilizer

Stabilizer nitrification inhibitors Yes (time release or nitrification inhibitor) no

Type yes

yes (5 types farmyard, green, straw, liquid, compost) yes beef, dairy, pork, swine

Amount yes yes yes Manure input

C/N ratio yes yes yes, carbon, organic N, mineral N, NH3 fraction

Amounts yes yes yes

Dates yes Yes (or modeled based on crop demand) yes

Type (sprinkler, furrow, drip) no yes yes Irrigation

Water pH and N content if known yes yes yes

Daily min/max temp yes – but can get independently

yes – but can get independently yes – but can get independently

Precipitation yes – but can get independently

yes – but can get independently yes – but can get independently

Solar radiation no yes – but can get independently yes – but can get independently

Climate

Atmospheric N deposition

yes – but can get independently

yes – but can get independently

yes – but can get independently

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DRAFT Supplemental Report for T-AGG: Three Process Models September 2010

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Process Model Comparison These three models (DAYCENT, DNDC, and EPIC/APEX) have many similarities, and a few critical differences. These include:

• All three models can be used at a Tier-2 or -3 level for quantifying CO2 and N2O emissions and C removal (sequestration).

• DNDC simulates soil redox potential and CH4 emissions from saturated soils and CH4 uptake, whereas DAYCENT only models CH4 uptake in non-saturated soils but is working on an emissions model, while EPIC/APEX currently does neither but is working on incorporating both.

• APEX places EPIC into a spatial context where it can model hydrological flows using the SWAT model2 and thus estimate sediment and thus stored carbon transfers and nitrate leaching across the landscape. They are working on adding estimates of indirect (off-site) nitrous oxide emissions. The other two models can estimate nitrogen losses from leaching and volatilization, which can be used to calculate N2O losses using an IPCC emissions factor, but the models do not do this directly. While all 3 models cover common agricultural practices, there are a few practices that each of them are not yet set up to run.

o All models can manipulate quantity of irrigation, but DAYCENT does not currently allow different types of irrigation (flood, sprinkler, drip). DNDC and EPIC/APEX do include type of irrigation.

o All the models can control amount of fertilizer. DAYCENT only includes nitrate versus ammonia fertilizers, while the other models have multiple types (~7). DAYCENT also does not have the ability to change method or placement of fertilization, but the other models do (e.g., surface vs injection).

o Nitrification inhibitors are in DAYCENT and DNDC, but not yet in EPIC/APEX.

o Nitrous oxide emissions from manure and irrigation management are integrated into DAYCENT AND DNDC, but not yet in EPIC/APEX.

o DNDC is the only model that current includes CH4 emissions, thus it is the only one of the models that can look at water management in rice cultivation.

o APEX includes a model for extensive grazing, and DNDC has a model for manure management, which includes intensive management systems with enteric fermentation. Despite these new and helpful additions to the models, it is not clear if either are yet fully capable of integrating the extensive and intensive periods of livestock management that are typical of livestock in the U.S. today. APEX has comprehensive capabilities to simulate confined and unconfined livestock. From Gassman et al. (2010): up to 10 herds of groups of animals can be simulated but only one herd can occupy a subarea at any given time. Livestock can rotate among subareas. Animals may be confined to a feeding area. Grazing can occur throughout the year of periodically according to limits. When no more grazing material is available, the owner can provide supplemental feeding.

2 http://swatmodel.tamu.edu/

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• The models differ slightly in the inputs required to run them, but all of them can use estimates or national databases to fill in most variables where site-specific information is not available. (More details in T-AGG report Assessing Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Opportunities and Implementation Strategies for Agricultural Land Management in the United States).

Accuracy of the Models Accuracy is related to model error and uncertainty. Sources of model error can be partitioned into two categories: errors due to uncertainty in model inputs and errors due to model structure. Errors from model input uncertainty occur because model inputs are not precisely known and can be estimated by using a Monte Carlo approach, which involves randomly drawing model inputs from a probability distribution function for key model inputs and performing a series of simulations. Errors related to model structure result from the fact that equations in the models are imperfect representations of the real-world processes that result in GHG emissions. These errors can be estimated by statistically quantifying the agreement between model outputs and field measurements.

Various statistics should be used when evaluating model performance, because they each have strengths and weaknesses. For example, the correlation coefficient quantifies how well model outputs are correlated with measurements, but it is not influenced by model bias. Model evaluation is also dependent on the variable of interest, the reliability of measured data, and the scale of model application. For example, grain yields are more accurately and precisely measured than GHG fluxes, so model errors also tend to be smaller for grain yields than GHG emissions. Scale dependency is complicated. When results from many model simulations are aggregated spatially and temporally, errors tend to shrink as scale increases. However, model errors for small plots of land can be small if all important inputs are well known.

If we want to better understand and compare the uncertainties associated with various models we need to have a parallel assessment of the models. As you can see from the DNDC example for uncertainly in N2O estimates (Box 1), the model accuracy increases as the number of observations increases. At this time we do not have a side-by-side assessment of these models with comparable methods that explore both the structural uncertainty and the input uncertainties. The modelers are interested in developing such a comparison over the next few years, but for now we are limited in our ability to compare the models. For a separate uncertainty analysis for the Century/DAYCENT models see Box 2.

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Uncertainty assessment for the DNDC model For the full DNDC model assessment (69 detailed independent field validation datasets for N2O emissions) at a single field/observation level, the model has an r-squared of 0.83 (measure of how well the model captures observed variability). So the model captures well the observed variance in field measurements, but the precision is not great. To examine aggregation, we randomly selected groups of observations and compared the average emissions with the model. Aggregating four observations, the R-squared increases slightly to 0.86, but the RMSE (root mean squared error, measure of the precision of the model or typical error) drops to 3.9 kg N-N2O/ha (1.8 tonnes CO2e). At an aggregation of 10, the r-squared is 0.92 and RMSE is down to 1.8 kg N-N2O/ha (840 kg CO2e). The larger RMSE at the single field scale is driven by a few sites with very high modeled or measured emissions. As the modelers compile a larger independent validation database, they will be able to provide more detailed estimates of model structural uncertainty. In addition, they will be able to assess the impacts of uncertainties in inputs on model estimates (Salas, 2010).

The simplified DNDC model (Willey and Chameides, 2007), which requires only eight inputs (annual precip., average temp., soil carbon, soil texture, soil pH, crop type, amount of fertilizer, and amount of organic amendments), was compared with 434 independent field datasets. Based on this analysis the model captured 61% of the variance of field measurements with an RMSE of 11.2 kg N/ha. The model is accurate within 3 kg N2O 60% of the time and within 5 kg 74% of the time at the field/plot scale. Note that most of the large differences between modeled and observed values occurred at sites with high emissions. The full DNDC model is more precise than the simplified model by approximately 3 kg (based on our analysis of 69 observation datasets). Assuming a similar distribution of errors between the simplified model and our full model, then the full model should be within 2 kg N-N2O of observed approximately 74% of the time and within 5 kg N-N2O 87% of the time at the field/plot scale. On average the simplified model is off by 2.5 tonnes CO2e. The 95% confidence interval on this is +/- 470 kg CO2e. On average the full model is off by 1.6 tonnes CO2e. (Salas, 2010)

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DRAFT Supplemental Report for T-AGG: Three Process Models September 2010

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Current Use of These Models DAYCENT/Century:

• Foundation for decisions support tools CometVR3 and CometFarm (under development) • Used to develop input data to run FASOMGHG, an economic model being used by USDA and

EPA to assess policy options.\ • Other domestic uses • Used by various researchers around the world to investigate the impacts of land-use and climate

change on GHG fluxes and nutrient cycling • U.S. National GHG Inventory

DNDC: • Effort to expand coverage of specialty crops • Involved in one of the supply chain initiatives • Adopted by dairy and swine industries in U.S. to assess air emissions • Used by international and multinational inventories and mitigation studies (e.g., Nitro-Europe) • Basis for web decision support tools (e.g., riceghg.info) • Used by researchers for quantifying GHG emissions from natural and restored wetlands

APEX: • Working on a decision support tool in collaboration with USDA-NRCS • Work with EPA on water quality modeling

User-Friendly Versions of These Models Efforts are also under way to develop user-friendly decision support tools using the main process models. The DAYCENT (CENTURY) model has been used to develop the COMET-VR tool (Paustian et al., 2010; Paustian et al., 2009) (http://www.cometvr.colostate.edu/) to quantify soil carbon sequestration potential from various management practices. This tool is currently being updated into COMET-FARM, which is a whole farm/ranch greenhouse gas emission estimation tool that uses DAYCENT for estimating soil emissions and uptake of CO2 and N2O (and other models for livestock and other on-farm emissions).

3 http://www.cometvr.colostate.edu/

Uncertainty analyses for DAYCENT/Century Several analyses of uncertainty have been conducted for the DayCent model (for N2O emissions) and the closely related Century model (for soil C dynamics), mainly in conjunction with U.S. national greenhouse gas emission estimates (Del Grosso et al., 2005; Del Grosso et al., 2010; Ogle et al., 2007; Ogle et al., 2010). Analyses have combined Monte Carlo approaches to estimate uncertainty in model inputs and a statistical approach (mixed-effect linear models) utilizing available long-term agricultural field experiments to estimate model structural uncertainty. Uncertainties for both N2O and soil C estimates were strongly scale dependent. For the structural uncertainty estimates for Century, measurements from a total of 47 experimental studies, accounting for 872 treatment combinations, were included in the analysis (Ogle et al., 2007). At national scale, the 95% confidence limits on estimated changes in soil C stocks was around 20% of the mean, with the majority of the uncertainty attributable to model structural uncertainty (Ogle et al., 2010). At finer scales, e.g., for an individual major land resource area (MLRA), total uncertainties in soil C stock changes exceeded 100% illustrating the impact of sparse data for both model inputs and field experiments. For N2O emissions, a total of 12 sites were used in developing the structural uncertainty estimate (Del Grosso et al., 2010; Ogle, 2010). For national scale estimates, the 95% confidence limits for N2O emissions had a lower bound of 34% below the mean and an upper bound of 51% greater than the mean. Of total uncertainty, around 80% was attributed to model structural uncertainty.

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APEX has been used by USDA in the development of the Nutrient Trading Tool (http://ntt.tarleton.edu/nttwebars/) to track nitrogen impacts of agricultural practices on water quality, but could potentially also but used to quantify GHG impacts. There is also an ARCGIS version of APEX. DNDC has a simplified version that uses fewer data inputs (Willey and Chameides, 2007), it also has a user-friendly interface to the full model that has been prototyped as online decision support tool (see http://riceghg.info/ and http://nugget.sr.unh.edu).

A decision support system for EPIC is under development by USDA and PNNL researchers with support from NASA.

References

Del Grosso, S.J., A. Mosier, W. Parton and D. Ojima. 2005. DAYCENT model analysis of past and contemporary N2O and net greenhouse gas flux for major crops in the USA. Soil & Tillage Research 83(1):9–24.

Del Grosso, S.J., S.M. Ogle, W.J. Parton and F.J. Breidt. 2010. Estimating uncertainty in N2O emissions from U.S. cropland soils. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24:1–12.

Gassman, P., W., J.R. Williams, X. Wang, A. Saleh, E. Osei, L.M. Hauck, C. Izaurralde and J.D. Flowers. 2010. Invited Review Article: The Agricultural Policy Environmental EXtender (APEX) Model: An Emerging Tool for Landscape and Watershed Environmental Analyses 53(3):711-740.

Ogle, S. 2010. personal communication.

Ogle, S.M., F.J. Breidt, M. Easter, S. Williams and K. Paustian. 2007. An empirically based approach for estimating uncertainty associated with modelling carbon sequestration in soils. Ecological Modelling 205(3–4):453–63.

Ogle, S.M., F.J. Breidt, M. Easter, S. Williams, K. Killian and K.H. Paustian. 2010. Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for U.S. croplands using a process-based model. Global Change Biology 16(2):810–22.

Paustian, K., S. Ogle and R.T. Conant. 2010. Quantification and decision support tools for agricultural soil carbon sequestration, p. 307–41. In D. Hillel and C. Reosenzweig, eds. Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. World Scientific, Singapore.

Paustian, K., J. Brenner, M. Easter, K. Killian, S. Ogle, C. Olson, J. Schuler, R. Vining and S. Williams. 2009. Counting carbon on the farm: Reaping the benefits of carbon offset programs. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 64(1):36A–49A.

Salas, W. 2010. personal communication.

Willey, Z. and B. Chameides, (eds.) 2007. Harnessing Farms and Forests in the Low-Carbon Economy; How to Create, Measure, and Verify Greenhouse Gas Offsets, pp. 1-229. Duke University Press, Durham & London.

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