Comparison of LM Verification against Multi Level Aircraft Measurements (MLAs) with LM Verification against Temps Ulrich Pflüger, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Jan 15, 2016
Comparison
ofLM Verification against Multi Level Aircraft Measurements (MLAs)
with LM Verification against Temps
Ulrich Pflüger, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Comparisonof
LM Verification against Multi Level Aircraft Measurements (MLAs)with LM Verification against Temps
• by means of Time Series (June 2001 until May 2003) of monthly average of – bias and rmse of 00h, 24h, 48h Forecasts based on all MLAs/Temps in
LM area
– Variables are• temperature
• wind velocity
• wind direction
Multi Level Aircraft Measurementsare
• Several (not less than 4) single Aircraft Measurements during the climb or descent flight
• which are piecewise combined– beginning with the lowest
– next < 20 km horizontal distance of the first
– vertical distance < 55 hPa
– etc.
• and then used like a Temp Measurement
LM Area
All MLAs at 12 UTC
2003/05/01-2003/05/19
LM Area
All Temps Stations
12 UTC
2003/05/01-2003/05/19
Bias of LM-Temperatureagainst
MLA Temps
00 UTC
Analysis Analysis
24 h Forecast 24 h Forecast
48 h Forecast 48 h Forecast
small bias, similar structures in both cases
Forecasts have annual cycle, in upper and middle tropospherepositive bias in Summer, negative in Winter, near ground predominantly negativ bias
RMSE of LM-Temperatureagainst
MLA Temps
00 UTC
1.41.6
1.61.4
2.22.01.8 2.0
similar structures in both cases
0.8 0.8
similar structures in both cases, rmse(Temps) overall about 0.2 K greater than rmse(MLA)
Bias of LM-Temperatureagainst
MLA Temps
12 UTC
Negative bias> -0.3 K
positiv bias< 0.4 K
below 800 hPApredominantly negativ,
below 800 hPApredominantly negativ
below 800 hPASummer negativ,Winter positiv
below 800 hPASummer negativ,Winter positiv
RMSE of LM-Temperatureagainst
MLA Temps
12 UTC
1.41.6
1.61.4
2.22.01.6 1.8
Same as 00 UTC
Differences at Temperature Verification
• Relative few differences between Verification based on MLAs and Temps
• When bias is small there is predominantly a negative bias against MLAs and a positive bias against Temps
• Overall rmse of 24/48 h Forecast is about 0.2 K greater in Verification based on Temps
Bias of LM-Wind Velocityagainst
MLA Temps
00 UTC
Below 800 hPa, annual cycle, in winter strong positive bias Max.: 1.4 m/s
Below 800 hPa , annual cycle, in winter strong positive bias Max.: 1.8 m/s
Below 800 hPa , annual cycle, in winter strong positive bias Max.: 1.8 m/s
Below 900 hPa predominantly negative bias Min.: -1.1 m/s, Winter less
Below 900 hPa predominantly negative bias Min.: -0.8 m/s, Winter partly positive Max 0.2 m/s
Below 900 hPa predominantly negative bias Min.: -0.8 m/s, Winter partly positiv Max 0.2 m/s
RMSE of LM-Wind Velocityagainst
MLA Temps
00 UTC
Overall rmse(MLA) is about 0.5-1 m/sgreater than rmse(Temps)
Overall rmse(MLA) is equalto rmse(Temps)
Above 400 hPa rmse(Temps) is greaterthan rmse(MLA)
3.5 3 3.5 3
Bias of LM-Wind Velocityagainst
MLA Temps
12 UTC
Below 800 hPa, annual cycle, in winter strong positive bias, Max.: 1.9 m/s
Below 800 hPa , annual cycle, in winter strong positive bias, Max.: 2.4 m/s
Below 800 hPa , annual cycle, in winter strong positive bias, Max.: 2.3 m/s
Below 900 hPa predominantly negative bias Min.: -1.1 m/s,Winter partly positive, Max.: 0.2 m/s
Below 800 hPa Summer negative bias Min.: -0.6 m/s, Winter positive, Max 0.7 m/s
Below 800 hPa Summer predominantly negative bias Min.: -0.6 m/s, Winter predominantly positive, Max 0.8 m/s
RMSE of LM-Wind Velocityagainst
MLA Temps
12 UTC
3 2
4 3 4 3
Same as 00 UTC
Differences at Wind Velocity Verification
• bias with annual cycle– below 800 hPa
• positive against MLA
• negativ(Winter) to slight positive(Summer) 00 UTC
• negativ(Winter) to positive(Summer) 12 UTC
• rmse with annual cycle – at Analysis overall 0.5 -1 m/s higher against MLA
(wind is nudged to Temps)
– at Forecasts higher rmse against Temps above 400 hPa
Bias of LM-Wind Directionagainst
MLA Temps
00 UTC
Below 800 hPa, strong positive bias Max.: 7.4 degree, smaller in spring and autumn
Below 800 hPa, strong positive bias Max.: 10.3 degree
Below 800 hPa, strong positive bias Max.: 13.5 degree
Below 900 hPa negative bias Min.: -4.9 degree, Winter less
Below 900 hPa predominantly negative bias Min.: -7 degrees, Winter partly positive Max.: 6 degrees
Below 900 hPa predominantly negative bias Min.: -10 degrees, Winter partly positiv Max 6 degrees
RMSE of LM-Wind Directionagainst
MLA Temps
00 UTC
20
30 30
40 40
10
Overall rmse(MLA) is about 5-10 degreesgreater than rmse(Temps)
Overall rmse(MLA) is equalto rmse(Temps), except Summer
Above 400 hPa rmse(Temps) is partly greater than rmse(MLA)
Bias of LM-Wind Directionagainst
MLA Temps
12 UTC
Below 800 hPa, strong positive bias Max.: 6.1 degree, smaller as 00 UTC
Below 800 hPa, strong positive bias Max.: 10.1 degree
Below 800 hPa, strong positive bias Max.: 10.6 degree, smaller than 00 UTC
Below 900 hPa Winter negative bias Min.: -4.1 degree, Summer positive
Below 900 hPa predominantly positive Max.: 8 degrees, Winter smaller or negative
Below 900 hPa predominantly positive, Max.: 9 degrees, single months in winter positive
RMSE of LM-Wind Directionagainst
MLA Temps
12 UTC
Overall rmse(MLA) is about 5-10 degreesgreater than rmse(Temps)
Below 400 hPa rmse(MLA) is equalto rmse(Temps) except Summer
Above 400 hPa rmse(Temps) is partly greater than rmse(MLA)
Differences at Wind Direction Verification
• bias with annual cycle– below 800 hPa
• Analysis and Forecast against MLAS strong positive
• Analysis against Temps slight negative below 900 hPa, slight positve above against Temps
• Forecasts against Temps partly slight negativ(Winter) to slight positive(Summer) 12 UTC
• rmse with annual cycle – at Analysis overall 5 -10 degrees higher against MLA (wind is
nudged to Temps)– at Forecasts higher rmse against Temps above 400 hPa– at Forecasts higher rmse against MLA in Summer
Summary
• Temperature Verification shows only few differences between the two measuring systems
• Wind Verification shows below 800 hPa great differences between the two measuring systems
• Regarding the Wind Verification results up to now (Synop, Temp) LM is more likely to underestimate wind velocity
• Regarding the verification against aircraft measurements it seems that aircraft measurements below 800 hPa underestimate wind velocity (up to 2 m/s in the boundary layer).