Comparative Regional Comparative Regional Economic Advantages for Economic Advantages for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Bioenergy Production. Bioenergy Production. Burton C. English Burton C. English
Dec 22, 2015
Comparative Regional Comparative Regional Economic Advantages for Economic Advantages for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Bioenergy Production. Bioenergy Production.
Burton C. EnglishBurton C. English
Use this time to address some Use this time to address some questionsquestions
Bioenergy – Potential FeedstocksBioenergy – Potential Feedstocks Residues or Dedicated Energy Residues or Dedicated Energy
Crops?Crops? What is the UT Switchgrass What is the UT Switchgrass
Project?Project?
Renewable Energy
Electricity Biodiesel Ethanol
Cattle Manure
ResiduesCorn, Wheat
Dedicated Energy Crops
Digester Dairy, Poultry, Hogs
Mill Wastes
Forest Residues
Oilseed Crops
Yellow Grease
TallowBeef and Poultry
Corn
Residues Corn and Wheat
Dedicated Energy Crops
Forest Residues
Food
Mill Wastes
Fuel Reduction
Renewable Energy Feedstocks From Renewable Energy Feedstocks From AgricultureAgriculture
Geographical Geographical CompetitivenessCompetitiveness
Biomass conversion to energy utilizes Biomass conversion to energy utilizes a number of different feedstocks a number of different feedstocks including agricultural and forest including agricultural and forest residues, mill and urban wastes, and residues, mill and urban wastes, and dedicated crops. Information on the dedicated crops. Information on the quantity of feedstock supply available quantity of feedstock supply available at the county level exists for prices at the county level exists for prices ranging from $12.50 to $100 per dry ranging from $12.50 to $100 per dry ton (excluding transportation costs) ton (excluding transportation costs) for agricultural and residues, mill and for agricultural and residues, mill and urban wood wastes, and switchgrass. urban wood wastes, and switchgrass.
Geographical Geographical CompetitivenessCompetitiveness
Agricultural Residues – complementary products in Agricultural Residues – complementary products in the production of grain and oilseed crops and the production of grain and oilseed crops and consists of corn stover and wheat straw derived from consists of corn stover and wheat straw derived from data supplied by Nelson (2002),data supplied by Nelson (2002),
Forest Residues – consist of logging residues and Forest Residues – consist of logging residues and other removals,other removals,
Mill Waste – by-product resulting from operations at Mill Waste – by-product resulting from operations at primary mills that convert round wood products into primary mills that convert round wood products into other wood products generally consisting of bark, other wood products generally consisting of bark, fine wood residues, and coarse wood residues,fine wood residues, and coarse wood residues,
Urban Wood Waste – wood contained in municipal Urban Wood Waste – wood contained in municipal solid waste streams including such items as solid waste streams including such items as containers, crates, pallets, furniture; yard trimmings; containers, crates, pallets, furniture; yard trimmings; residential and non-residential construction wastes; residential and non-residential construction wastes; residential and non-residential demolition wastes; residential and non-residential demolition wastes; and renovation and remodeling wastes, andand renovation and remodeling wastes, and
Dedicated energy cropsDedicated energy crops
Corn Stover - Supply Curve
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
Million Tons
$/to
n
2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Residue composite at Residue composite at $30/dry ton$30/dry ton
Biomass Types($30/dry ton)
Agriculture Residues
Energy Crop
Forest Residues
Mill Residues
Urban Wood Waste
Residue composite at Residue composite at $50/dry ton$50/dry ton
Biomass Types($50/dry ton)
Agriculture Residues
Energy Crop
Forest Residues
Mill Residues
Urban Wood Waste
By the year 2025, America’s farms, ranches and forests will provide 25 percent of the total energy consumed in the U.S. while continuing to produce safe, abundant and affordable food, feed and fiber.
25x’25
25x’25 Vision:
Land Use by Major Use Land Use by Major Use Category, 2002.Category, 2002.
Total Cropland434 Million Acres
61
3334
307
POLYSYS Planted Cropland
Cropland Pasture
CRP
Other
Private Land Base938 Million Acres
395
76 33
434
Cropland
Pasture/range
Woodland
Other
Total Cropland434 Million Acres
61
3334
307
POLYSYS Planted Cropland
Cropland Pasture
CRP
Other
Private Land Base938 Million Acres
395
76 33
434
Cropland
Pasture/range
Woodland
Other
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service, Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service, 2004.2004.
Feedstock for Energy: Feedstock for Energy: Converted to EnergyConverted to Energy
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Year
Mill
ion
ton
s
Soybeans Corn Grain Wood Residue Straw Stover Ded. Energy Crops
Land Use: 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, Land Use: 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 and 2025 (million acres(million acres))
81.9 85.4 85.2 82.9 78.7
73.4 72.2 72.2 59.1 53.3
58.6 58.8 58.3 54.0 49.4
62.8 63.3129.6 167.8
451.5 451.5 367.8 303.6279.2
66.7 58.9 55.8 53.8 52.9
176.9
105.856.8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2007 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Corn Soybeans Wheat O ther Crops
Hay Pasture Ded. Energy Crops Idle and CRP
Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2010of Cellulosic Materials, 2010
Dry Tons
zero
up to 500 thousand
up to 1 million
up to 2 million
up to 4 million
over 4 million
Dry Tons
zero
up to 500 thousand
up to 1 million
up to 2 million
up to 4 million
over 4 million
Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2015of Cellulosic Materials, 2015
Dry Tons
zero
up to 500 thousand
up to 1 million
up to 2 million
up to 4 million
over 4 million
Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2020of Cellulosic Materials, 2020
Dry Tons
zero
up to 500 thousand
up to 1 million
up to 2 million
up to 4 million
over 4 million
Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2025of Cellulosic Materials, 2025
Dry Tons
zero
up to 500 thousand
up to 1 million
up to 2 million
up to 4 million
over 4 million
Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2015of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2015
Dry Tons
zero
up to 500 thousand
up to 1 million
up to 2 million
up to 4 million
over 4 million
Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2020of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2020
Dry Tons
zero
up to 500 thousand
up to 1 million
up to 2 million
up to 4 million
over 4 million
Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2025of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2025
Changes in Farm Changes in Farm Income and Income and
Government PaymentsGovernment Payments (million $)(million $)
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Year
Ne
t In
co
me
(M
illio
n d
olla
rs)
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Go
vt.
Pa
y. (
Mill
ion
do
llars
)
Realized Net Income Govt. Payments
Dollars
zero
up to 25 million
up to 50 million
up to 100 million
over 100 million
Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20102010
Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20152015
Dollars
zero
up to 25 million
up to 50 million
up to 100 million
over 100 million
Dollars
zero
up to 25 million
up to 50 million
up to 100 million
over 100 million
Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20202020
Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20252025
Dollars
zero
up to 25 million
up to 50 million
up to 100 million
over 100 million
What is switchgrass?What is switchgrass?Native to the United StatesNative to the United StatesWarm Season GrassWarm Season GrassManaged using common agricultural Managed using common agricultural practices practices High yielding, drought tolerant, and requires High yielding, drought tolerant, and requires lower fertilizer and herbicide quantities than lower fertilizer and herbicide quantities than traditional cropstraditional cropsPlanting-May to early June and can use no-till Planting-May to early June and can use no-till practicespracticesAs a perennial, needs to be planted only once As a perennial, needs to be planted only once every 10 years or moreevery 10 years or moreHarvested annually, either in a two harvest Harvested annually, either in a two harvest system or a one harvest system after the first system or a one harvest system after the first frost, using conventional hay equipmentfrost, using conventional hay equipment
What is the UT Switchgrass What is the UT Switchgrass Project?Project?
The switchgrass project has three The switchgrass project has three questions to address.questions to address.
What incentives are required to induce What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial cropland to producers to convert commercial cropland to switchgrass?switchgrass?
What impact would a mature switchgrass What impact would a mature switchgrass feedstock industry have on Tennessee’s feedstock industry have on Tennessee’s economy and the Nation’s agricultural sector?economy and the Nation’s agricultural sector?
What is the potential of converting What is the potential of converting switchgrass to bio-oil for use as light-off fuel switchgrass to bio-oil for use as light-off fuel in a coal fired burner or some other in a coal fired burner or some other conversion process? conversion process?
What incentives are required to induce What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial producers to convert commercial
cropland to switchgrass?cropland to switchgrass? Several StepsSeveral Steps
Plant 32.5 acres on Experiment Station landPlant 32.5 acres on Experiment Station land Develop recommendations from literature and Develop recommendations from literature and
from experiencefrom experience Contract with producers to grow switchgrassContract with producers to grow switchgrass Analyze the experiences of the producers and Analyze the experiences of the producers and
those of the experiment stationthose of the experiment station Feed information learned into the Second Feed information learned into the Second
QuestionQuestion Use switchgrass grown to develop potential Use switchgrass grown to develop potential
bio-energy marketbio-energy market
ExperimentExperiment
VideoVideo Two experimentsTwo experiments
Variety yieldsVariety yields Seeding Rate X Fertilization Level X Seeding Rate X Fertilization Level X
LandscapeLandscape Seeding Rate 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 12 pounds per Seeding Rate 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 12 pounds per
acreacre Fertilization Rates 0, 60, 120, and 180 Fertilization Rates 0, 60, 120, and 180
pounds of Npounds of N 4 Different Landscapes4 Different Landscapes
Switchgrass Yields, 2004-Switchgrass Yields, 2004-20062006
Field N-21 A-7 bottom
2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006
Alamo 0.99 5 10.3 Alamo 0.77 1.4 2.1
SL-93-2 1.33 5.8 11.7 SL-93-2 1.03 2.3 3.3
GA 992 1.35 5 10.3 GA 992 1.03 2.3 3.2
GA 993 1.23 6.2 10.8 GA 993 1.09 2.9 4.6
Switchgrass Yields, 2004-Switchgrass Yields, 2004-20062006
212 A-7 Hillside
2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006
Alamo 0.94 3.85 8.5 Alamo 0.83 3.4 9.7
SL-93-2 1.13 4.7 8.4 SL-93-2 1.28 4.4 8.2
GA 992 1.29 3.9 7.2 GA 992 0.96 4.1 7.2
GA 993 1.33 4.6 7.7 GA 993 1.09 4.7 10.4
What incentives are required to induce What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial producers to convert commercial
cropland to switchgrass?cropland to switchgrass? We also conducted a survey of We also conducted a survey of
Tennessee producers.Tennessee producers. Found that Currently (pre Bush January Found that Currently (pre Bush January
2005 speech) 29% of producers willing 2005 speech) 29% of producers willing to grow switchgrass, 25% would not. to grow switchgrass, 25% would not. The other 45% would need additional The other 45% would need additional information before deciding.information before deciding.
Of the 45%, An estimated probit model Of the 45%, An estimated probit model indicated that 75% would likely say yes.indicated that 75% would likely say yes.
Questions?Questions?