Introduction Oil is a commodity, and as such, it tends to see larger fluctuations in price than more stable investments such as stocks and bonds. 1 Oil shocks four decades ago transformed the world economy and geopolitical landscape, and the latest oil crisis threatens to do the same. The price of oil hovered near $100 per barrel during the past three years, and the recent vertiginous fall in price to near $50 per barrel has sent markets reeling. Ali al-Naimi, oil minister of Saudi Arabia, considered the industry’s most powerful decision maker, said oil could fall to $20 a barrel as predicted by the Citigroup analyst 2 and the lower prices are expected to persist at least in the medium term. 3 This dramatic shift has global consequences. Some governments welcome it with glee, others 1 Available in http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012715/what-causes- oil-prices-fluctuate.asp accessed on March 16,2015 2 Available in http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/03/23/oil- starts-move-down-to-20/ accessed on March 16,2015 3 Available in http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Global-Economy-At- Risk-From-Oil-Price-Dive.html accessed on March 16,2015 1
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Transcript
Introduction
Oil is a commodity, and as such, it tends to see larger
fluctuations in price than more stable investments such as
stocks and bonds.1 Oil shocks four decades ago transformed the
world economy and geopolitical landscape, and the latest oil
crisis threatens to do the same. The price of oil hovered near
$100 per barrel during the past three years, and the recent
vertiginous fall in price to near $50 per barrel has sent
markets reeling. Ali al-Naimi, oil minister of Saudi Arabia,
considered the industry’s most powerful decision maker, said
oil could fall to $20 a barrel as predicted by the Citigroup
analyst2 and the lower prices are expected to persist at least
in the medium term.3 This dramatic shift has global
consequences. Some governments welcome it with glee, others
1 Available in http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012715/what-causes-oil-prices-fluctuate.aspaccessed on March 16,20152 Available in http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/03/23/oil-starts-move-down-to-20/ accessed on March 16,2015
3 Available in http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Global-Economy-At-Risk-From-Oil-Price-Dive.html accessed on March 16,2015
production curbs, sending the price tumbling,6 marks the
beginning of an incredibly important change7.
Four things are now affecting the picture. Demand is low
because of weak economic activity, increased efficiency, and a
growing switch away from oil to other fuels. Second, turmoil
in Iraq and Libya—two big oil producers with nearly 4m barrels
a day combined—has not affected their output. The market is
more sanguine about geopolitical risk. Thirdly, America has
become the world’s largest oil producer. Though it does not
export crude oil, it now imports much less, creating a lot of
spare supply. Finally, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have
decided not to sacrifice their own market share to restore the
price. They could curb production sharply, but the main
benefits would go to countries they detest such as Iran and
Russia. Saudi Arabia can tolerate lower oil prices quite
easily. It has $900 billion in reserves. Its own oil costs
very little (around $5-6 per barrel) to get out of the ground.8
6 Available in http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/12/economist-explains-4 accessed on March 16,20157Available in http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2015/01/20/everything-has-changed-oil-and-the-end-of-opec/ accessed on March 18,20158 Available in http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/12/economist-explains-4 accessed on March 18,2015
Lower prices improve economic prospects by way of two main
mechanisms:
The first is through better public finances. In many
developing countries, governments heavily subsidize energy
usage by selling fuel for automobiles far below the market
price. These policies have been destructive on many levels. By
reducing fuel prices, such subsidies discourage fuel
efficiency, exacerbating global warming. And they impose a
dangerous burden on public finances because governments are on
the hook when oil prices increase. Though fuel subsidies are
4
often rhetorically justified on the grounds that they help the
poor, research suggests that in most countries the middle
class receives the bulk of benefits. Some developing countries
have taken advantage of lower prices to cut or eliminate fuel
subsidies. When prices are high, scrapping subsidies shifts
costs to consumers and risks political backlash. Now, however,
extremely lower oil prices provide political cover to
undertake tough reforms. Indonesian President Joko Widodo, for
example, is developing a plan to sharply cut fuel subsidies
and redirect public spending to more productive uses, such as
infrastructure or education. If more countries follow
Indonesia, the policy changes facilitated by lower oil prices
will underwrite more economic growth for years to come.9
Second will be, oil consumers, benefit from lower prices is
straightforward – households have more money to spend on other
goods It will give consumers a break, reducing their cost of
transportation and as a result increasing their purchasing
power for other goods and services.10. In the United States,
for example, consumers spent $370 billion on gasoline in 2013,
9 Available in http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/plummeting-oil-prices-upend-global-economy accessed on March 16,201510 Available in http://slconcordtimes.com/the-falling-oil-prices-what-we-should-know/ accessed on March 15,2015
according to analysis from Goldman Sachs. That constitutes
roughly 3 percent of total household spending. Lower prices
may save American consumers $125 billion over the coming year.
Chinese consumers are less avid drivers than Americans, but
they too will notice the economic effects as energy costs
influence the price of food – Chinese spend near 27 percent of
their income on food while Americans spend about 6.5 percent.
Indeed, across the world, consumers will experience similar
windfalls if oil prices stay low. In economic terms, this will
function as a medium-size tax cut and boost consumption as
people can afford to buy more goods or save.11
Non -Oil and gas companies:
China
“Falling global oil prices present a golden opportunity for
importers like Indonesia and India to reform their costly fuel
subsidy programs,” said Asian Development Bank, Chief
Economist Shang-Jin Wei12.as it contribute to strong growth,
11 Available in http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Global-Economy-At-Risk-From-Oil-Price-Dive.html accessed on March 15,201512 Available in http://www.adb.org/news/features/falling-oil-prices-asia-and-pacific-potential-gains-importers-opportunities-exporters accessed on
up to March, two months before Narendra Modi was elected prime
minister, India had fuel subsidies of almost $22 billion for
consumers, though much of that has gradually been cut, and the
country is planning to deregulate fuel prices completely if
oil continues its fall.14
According to officials at India’s oil ministry, every dollar
drop in oil prices helps reduce the government’s burden of
subsidy payments by $1 billion. Mr. Chehab said the cost of
oil is one factor that will help India’s GDP growth increase
to around 6.3% next fiscal year from an estimated 5.6% for the
year ended in March.15
Indonesia, scrapped gasoline subsidies completely on the last
day of 2014, a month after raising subsidized fuel prices by
about one-third. It has promised more reforms in fuel pricing,
and a range of economic and administrative policies that could
help lift GDP growth to 5.5% this year from an estimated 5.1%
last year.16
14 Available in http://www.wsj.com/articles/falling-oil-spells-boon-for-most-of-asias-economies-1420398456 accessed in 25th March 201515Available in http://ep-bd.com/online/details.php?cid=11&id=18132 accessedon March 16,201516 Available in http://www.wsj.com/articles/falling-oil-spells-boon-for-most-of-asias-economies-1420398456 accessed on March 16,2015
would contract by at least 0.7% in 2015 if oil prices do not
pick up.18
Malaysia
In view of the decline in oil prices, Asia's biggest oil
producer now expects its economy grow by 4.5-5.5% this year,
down from a previous estimate of 5-6%.The fiscal deficit will
also be larger at 3.2% of gross domestic product.19 Malaysia’s
revenues have been hit hard by the collapse in crude prices,
which have halved as a result of a supply glut and the weak
global economy. The currency, ringgit, has lost about 10% of
its value against the US dollar in recent months as dwindling
investor confidence has led to capital outflows. The country
is also struggling with one of the highest levels of household
debt in Asia, rising prices and a large current account
deficit.20 According to data revealed by the Finance Ministry,
between January and November last year, the country’s net
exports of crude oil totalled RM7.7bil, while net imports of
18Available in http://slconcordtimes.com/the-falling-oil-prices-what-we-should-know/ accessed on March 16,201519Public Mutual Berhad, Calibre, March Edition 2015, 1420 Available in http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30892591 accessed on March 16,2015
petroleum products stood at RM8.9bil with a deficit of
RM1.2bil.Treasury secretary-general Tan Sri Dr Mohd Irwan
Serigar Abdullah said Malaysia had turned into a net importer
of crude oil and petroleum products since 2014 Hence, lower
oil prices will not adversely impact net export receipts.
Based on the revised oil price assumption of US$55 per barrel
for Budget 2015, Malaysia’s current account surplus this year
was expected to be around 2% to 3% of gross national income
(GNI), down from the estimated 5.1% of GNI last year. 21
Venezuela
Venezuela is one of the world's largest oil exporters, but
thanks to economic mismanagement it was already finding it
difficult to pay its way even before the oil price started
falling. Inflation is running at about 60% and the economy is
teetering on the brink of recession. The need for spending
cuts is clear, but the government faces difficult choices. The
country already has some of the world's cheapest petrol prices
21 Available in http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/01/21/Clearing-the-air-Treasury-sec-gen-Malaysia-net-importer-of-crude-oil-petroleum-products-since-2014/?style=biz accessed on March 14,2015
- fuel subsidies cost Caracas about $12.5bn a year but
President Maduro has ruled out subsidy cuts and higher petrol
prices. "I've considered as head of state, that the moment has
not arrived," he said. "There's no rush, we're not going to
throw more gasoline on the fire that already exists with
speculation and induced inflation."The government's caution is
understandable. A petrol price rise in 1989 saw widespread
riots that left hundreds dead.22
Australia
The drop in oil prices is having big impacts on international
liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and may cause a slowdown
in the development of LNG export plants globally, due to that
a number of proposed projects in Australia have been
shelved as to high costs.23 Wage stagnation at stake as
Austarlia’s Oil and gas company Woodside Petroleum has begun
cutting hundreds of jobs and has imposed a freeze on pay rises
22 Available in http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29643612 accessed on March 14,201523Available in http://breakingenergy.com/2015/01/21/impact-of-falling-oil-prices-on-lng/ accessed on March 16,2015
in response to falling oil prices24 despite Australia is oil producer
but it is a net importer.25
Recommendations for investor, oil and gas
companies, and government of nations to
minimize the impacts of falling oil price
First recommendation, Information gathering. Good information
enhances strategic and other decision making. As part of the
overall risk review a business should gather data on its
customers, suppliers, sub-contractors and other business
connections. Information on the financial condition of these
counterparties will be highly valuable in assessing where
risks may exist, where defaults or delays may be expected,
whether there are bankruptcy risks, and how to mitigate these
risks. Equally, this data may influence relative bargaining
positions, creating opportunities to enhance contractual terms
or obtain better pricing in new contracts.26
24 Available in http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-24/woodside-cuts-300-jobs-falling-oil-prices/6343210 accessed on March 15,201525 Available in http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/falling-oil-price-a-free-kick-for-australian-economy-20141114-11lyrs.html accessed on March 16,201526 Available in http://www.hfw.com/Oil-price-shock-March-2015 accessed on March 25th, 2015
Next, Through Articles of Association (AOA)27, companies able
to refer and determine any uncover area or any defect whenever
any crisis arises. In the course whether the company got a
balanced and effective board decision making and are there
enough non executives with the right sort of expertise.
Following, are the decisions being taken in the right way .The
Cadbury report and reports of Hampel and Higgs can be taken
into account in sorting out the crisis. Alternatively, In
order to adapt the changing circumstances, the company may
amend the companies’ AOA through special resolution under
Section 21 of Company Act 2006 (CA 2006)28. In the State where
an area need to be given more attention, a special committee
could be form through the main board to monitor the situation
i.e. by acquire the skilled non-executive directors in
company, well-knit reporting of risks and analysis of options
for dealing with them.29
27 Section 18(1) of Company Act 200628 Section 21 of Company Act 2006 (CA 2006)29 Available at http://www.ogfj.com/articles/print/volume-7/issue-9/features-/re-examining-corporate.html accessed 25th March 2015
followed.31 . Among other things, a business may need to call
upon ex-employees as witnesses in disputes or litigation going
forward, activities which are highly likely to increase due to
the stresses caused by the fall in the oil price. However, if
in the event of serious errors or fraudulent conduct by the
director or shareholder of the company which cause the company
suffer in debt or detriment, although the separate legal
personality is guarantee in Salomon32, however, the veil of
incorporation would be lifted to make the wrongdoer
(shareholder or director) responsible for the debts of the
company.33
It also can be recommended through separate legal
personality, it is possible to restructure in order to limit
litigation risks as in Adams v Cape34 such as, risks flowing
from cancelled projects. Yet it should be noted that separate
legal personality cannot be used to transfer legal liabilities
which have already arisen.
31 Available in http://www.hfw.com/Oil-price-shock-March-2015 accessed on 20th March 201532 Salomon v Salomon & Co Ltd [1896] UKHL 133 Helen Anderson, Piercing The Veil On Corporate Groups in Australia: The Case For Reform,33334 Adams v. Cape Industries plc [1990] Ch 433 (CA)
non-oil revenues and spending accordingly.36 For country like
Malaysia, they can form an independent committee to control
the price of commodity in the market so that the oil price
drop will not affect the people so much. Government could try
to safeguard against the falling oil price by optimizing
operation expenses to save costs, like, optimize outlays on
events and functions; travel expenses; embassies or high
commissions; exercise ‘zero tolerance’ on avoidable over-
spending, like, by tighten up project and spending monitoring
and take the necessary remedial and disciplinary actions to
prevent costly incidents of wastages, leakages, poor financial
management, and non-completion or late deliveries of
projects.37Thailand had gone through a political crisis in
2014; it affected tourism of the country which largely depends
on it. Since the oil price does not affect the people so much,
they should now decrease or cancel the oil subsidies system to
gain back their competitive strength, same goes to Indonesia.
The production of oil must be in accordance with the demand as
well as the supply, so that the precise range can be achieved
36 Available at https://www.imoney.my/articles/budget-2015-a-breakdown accessed 23 March 201537 Available at http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/12/13/Impact-of-low-oil-prices/?style=biz accessed 25 March 2015