Company Focus TIME dotCom Bhd - klse.i3investor.com · incumbent Telekom Malaysia (TM) is a risk, though we believe the probability is low, given TM’s dominant market share of 85%.

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

BUYBUYBUYBUY RMRMRMRM4.884.884.884.88 KLCIKLCIKLCIKLCI : : : : 1,761.251,761.251,761.251,761.25

(Initiating Coverage)

Price Target :Price Target :Price Target :Price Target : 12-Month RM5.65

Shariah Compliance :Shariah Compliance :Shariah Compliance :Shariah Compliance : Yes

Reason for Report :Reason for Report :Reason for Report :Reason for Report : Initiating coverage

Potential Catalyst: Potential Catalyst: Potential Catalyst: Potential Catalyst: Regional expansion in ASEAN Analyst Woo Kim TOH +603 2604 3917 [email protected]

Price Relative

Forecasts and Valuation

FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec ((((RMRMRMRM m) m) m) m) 2013201320132013AAAA 2014201420142014FFFF 2015201520152015FFFF 2016201620162016FFFF

Turnover 548 602 668 770 EBITDA 225 247 275 322 Pre-tax Profit 497 157 176 199 Net Profit 641 151 169 188 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 292 151 169 188 EPS (sen) 117.2 27.5 30.9 34.3 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 53.3 27.5 30.9 34.3 EPS Gth (%) 231 (76) 12 11 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 51 (48) 12 11 Diluted EPS (sen) 53.3 27.5 30.9 34.3 Net DPS (sen) 0.0 6.9 7.7 8.6 BV Per Share (sen) 366.0 386.7 409.8 435.5 PE (X) 4.2 17.7 15.8 14.2 PE Pre Ex. (X) 9.1 17.7 15.8 14.2 P/Cash Flow (X) 18.6 13.2 12.1 10.6 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.4 10.5 10.1 8.6 Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 1.4 1.6 1.8 P/Book Value (X) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH 0.1 0.0 ROAE (%) 28.6 7.3 7.8 8.1 Consensus EPS Consensus EPS Consensus EPS Consensus EPS (sensensensen):::: 23.0 27.0 31.0 Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs: B: 2 S: 1 H: 2 ICB IndustryICB IndustryICB IndustryICB Industry : Telecommunications ICB Sector: ICB Sector: ICB Sector: ICB Sector: Fixed Line Telecommunications Principal Business:Principal Business:Principal Business:Principal Business: A data-centric, fixed-line telecommunication provider based in Malaysia serving enterprises and operators with small presence in the retail broadband segment

Source of all data: Company, AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 574 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 2,800 / 799 Major Shareholders Pulau Kapas Ventures Sdn Bhd (%) 31.5 Khazanah Nasional Bhd (%) 11.4 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (%) 6.8 Free Float (%) 50.3 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 622

Malaysia Equity Research

2 Jan 2015

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd Bloomberg: TDC MK | Reuters: TCOM.KL Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

A matter of TIME • Prime beneficiary of the secular growth trend in

data amid rapid expansion of its international bandwidth business

• Growth anchored by commissioning of APG cable system in 3Q15; FASTER and AAE-1 in 2016 or early 2017

• Initiate coverage: BUY. SOP-based TP of RM5.65

Data-centric player. TIME is a data-centric, fixed-line

telecommunication provider based in Malaysia. The company

has expanded its business to international bandwidth and

data centre operations following the acquisitions of Global

Transit and AIMS in 2012.

Leveraging on strong growth in data. Global internet

bandwidth usage is expected to grow at a 35% CAGR from

2010-2019, largely driven by rising Internet penetration and

faster Internet access. We believe TIME is a prime beneficiary

of this secular growth trend due to its focus on data (>80% of

revenue) and also the rapid expansion of its international

bandwidth business.

Decent earnings growth. Normalised for one-off items and

excluding dividend income from DiGi, we forecast TIME to

achieve earnings growth of 11-13% in FY15-16F. This will be

largely underpinned by its international bandwidth business

whose growth will be boosted by the commissioning of APG

in 3Q15. Meanwhile, its investment into two other submarine

cable systems (i.e. FASTER and AAE-1) would only start

contributing meaningfully in FY17F.

BUY, SOP-based TP of RM5.65. Our TP is derived from: 1)

DCF-valuation of its core business (9.5% WACC, 2.5% TG)

which gives a FV of RM3.99/share; and 2) Its 137.5m shares in

DiGi worth RM1.66/share. Our TP implies a FY15 valuation of

18.3x PE, cheapest among the Malaysian telcos.

56

76

96

116

136

156

176

196

216

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.9

3.4

3.9

4.4

4.9

5.4

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14

Relative IndexRM

TIME dotCom Bhd (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)

Page 2

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

INVESTMENT THESIS

Profile Rationale

TIME is a data-centric, fixed-line telecommunication provider

based in Malaysia which mainly serves enterprises and

operators. Through Global Transit and AIMS, it also has

interest in international bandwidth as well as data centre

businesses.

Leveraging on the secular growth in data.Leveraging on the secular growth in data.Leveraging on the secular growth in data.Leveraging on the secular growth in data.

• TIME is a prime beneficiary of the secular growth trend

due to its focus on data (>80% of revenue) and also the

rapid expansion of its international bandwidth business.

Capacity upgrade and investment into new submarine cablesCapacity upgrade and investment into new submarine cablesCapacity upgrade and investment into new submarine cablesCapacity upgrade and investment into new submarine cables

• Unity capacity is being expanded from 800Gbps to

1.1Tbps and is likely to be completed in early FY15.

• TIME has also invested in two new submarines cables (i.e.

FASTER and AAE-1) which are expected to be completed

in 2016 or early 2017.

Undemanding valuationUndemanding valuationUndemanding valuationUndemanding valuation

• TIME’s valuation is the cheapest among the Malaysian

telcos. Though its dividend yield is lower than its peers,

we believe this is more than compensated by its strong

growth potential.

Valuation Risks

Our SOP-based TP for TIME is RM5.65, which is derived from:

1) DCF-valuation of its core business (9.5% WACC, 2.5%

terminal growth) which gives a FV of RM3.99/share; and 2)

Its 137.5m shares in DiGi, worth RM1.66/share.

Steeper decline in bandwidth pricesSteeper decline in bandwidth pricesSteeper decline in bandwidth pricesSteeper decline in bandwidth prices

• Any steeper-than-expected decline in bandwidth prices

and/or slowdown in demand will be an earnings risk to

TIME from its international bandwidth business.

Potential damage to submarine cablesPotential damage to submarine cablesPotential damage to submarine cablesPotential damage to submarine cables

• Service disruption or failure of TIME submarine cables due

to damage (from natural disasters, etc.) will cause TIME to

fail to meet customers’ performance requirements. In

turn, this could cause TIME to lose customers and/or

become liable to them for damages.

Intense price competition frIntense price competition frIntense price competition frIntense price competition from incumbent TMom incumbent TMom incumbent TMom incumbent TM

• Aggressive price competition in the domestic market by

incumbent Telekom Malaysia (TM) is a risk, though we

believe the probability is low, given TM’s dominant

market share of 85%.

Forex risksForex risksForex risksForex risks

• TIME is exposed to forex risks since sales of its

international bandwidth business are denominated in

USD.

Source: AllianceDBS

Page 3

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

SWOT Analysis

StrengthsStrengthsStrengthsStrengths WeaknessWeaknessWeaknessWeakness

• TIME mainly focuses on data, which is currently experiencing strong growth.

• Less exposure to voice business which is in a structural decline trend and also facing competition from cellular operators.

• TIME’s network infrastructure is 100% fibre-optic based which is future-proof and could last a very long time if it is well maintained.

• One of the very few data centre operators in Malaysia that have achieved a decent utilisation rate for its facilities.

• Lack of last mile infrastructure means that TIME cannot compete effectively with incumbent TM in the domestic wholesale market.

• Limited presence in the domestic retail segment.

OpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunities ThreatsThreatsThreatsThreats

• Well-positioned to capture the secular growth in data (particularly from ASEAN region) due to its investment in submarine cable systems.

• Expansion into ASEAN region leveraging on its submarine cable systems (i.e. APG and AAE-1) which pass through several ASEAN countries.

• In a strong position to benefit from potential consolidation in the data centre market in Malaysia.

• Competition from new submarine cable systems.

• Imposition of protectionism laws by local regulators could limit TIME’s expansion into other countries in the ASEAN region.

• Susceptible to fluctuations in forex, given that international bandwidth sales are denominated in USD.

Source: AllianceDBS

Page 4

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Company Background A fixedA fixedA fixedA fixed----line operator in Malaysialine operator in Malaysialine operator in Malaysialine operator in Malaysia.... TIME dotCom Berhad (TIME) is

a data-centric, fixed-line telecommunication provider based in

Malaysia. Since its listing in 2001, it has undergone several

major restructurings, including; 1) The disposal of its cellular

unit to Maxis in 2003; and 2) The transfer of its 3G licence to

DiGi in 2008 in return for a 3.5% stake in DiGi.

Under the new management, TIME acquired Global Transit and

AIMS in 2012, effectively expanding its product offerings and

business to international bandwidth and data centre operations.

Malaysian Malaysian Malaysian Malaysian fixedfixedfixedfixed----line mainly focusline mainly focusline mainly focusline mainly focusedededed on wholesale and enterprise on wholesale and enterprise on wholesale and enterprise on wholesale and enterprise

segmentsegmentsegmentsegmentssss.... The Malaysian fixed-line business is anchored by a

6,000-km-long advanced fibre optic network named Cross

Peninsular Cable System (CPCS), which passes through

Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. It is a fully meshed route

offering five diverse routes across Malaysia, allowing for very

high availability. CPCS is the core asset of TIME’s Malaysian

fixed-line business and is now a 100% next-generation IP

network after extensive upgrades in 2012.

For the wholesale segment, TIME mainly provides backhaul

capacity to domestic cellular operators, as well as telcos in

Thailand and Indochina, that are seeking access to Singapore. It

also has a strong presence in the enterprise segment, especially

among financial institutions, providing them fibre optic-based

connectivity between key locations.

International bandwidth business via Global TransitInternational bandwidth business via Global TransitInternational bandwidth business via Global TransitInternational bandwidth business via Global Transit.... TIME’s

regional network is operated by its subsidiary, Global Transit

which offers services to operators and enterprises across the

region. Global Transit owns international submarine cable assets

such as UNITY (trans-pacific) and Asia Pacific Gateway (expected

to be completed by 3Q15, connecting 11 locations in nine

countries). It has also recently committed to participate in two

other submarine cable consortiums (i.e. FASTER and AAE-1)

which will likely be completed in 2016 or early 2017.

Data centre operations via AIMSData centre operations via AIMSData centre operations via AIMSData centre operations via AIMS.... TIME’s data centre operations

come under its wholly-owned subsidiary, AIMS. It offers carrier

neutral co-location facilities while also offering managed and

cloud services, mainly at its two key sites, i.e. Menara AIMS, KL

and CJ1 Centre, Cyberjaya. Apart from its 50,000 sq ft of high-

tier data centre floor space in Malaysia, AIMS also has presence

in Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand via strategic alliances

with local co-location partners. TIME Groups of Businesses

Source: Company

Strong managementStrong managementStrong managementStrong management teamteamteamteam.... TIME’s financial performance in its

early days was not satisfactory due to management issues and

high turnover of its CEO. Things started to change for the better

when its major shareholder, Khazanah Nasional appointed Afzal

Abdul Rahim as the new CEO in August 2008. Afzal made a

major revamp of senior management and recruited experienced

personnel within the industry to fill key senior management

positions. See below for the profile of senior management.

As at April 2014, Afzal had a 36% indirect stake in TIME. This

was accumulated through: 1) Injection of Khazanah Nasional

stake into Pulau Kapas Venture, a JV between Khazanah

Nasional and Afzal’s private vehicle in order to facilitate his

entry into TIME in 2008; and 2) The acquisition of Global Transit

and AIMS in 2012 (previously owned by Afzal and his business

partner).

Page 5

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Key Management Team

Name and DesignationName and DesignationName and DesignationName and Designation AgeAgeAgeAge ProfileProfileProfileProfile Afzal Abdul RahimAfzal Abdul RahimAfzal Abdul RahimAfzal Abdul Rahim Chief Executive Officer

36 • Appointed Director and CEO in Oct 2008.

• Started his career in the automotive industry with Group Lotus PLC.

• Founded the Malaysian Internet Exchange (MyIX) in 2006.

• Holds a Degree in Mechanical Engineering with Electronics, specialising in

Acoustic Wave Theory from University of Sussex, UK.

Rossana RashidiRossana RashidiRossana RashidiRossana Rashidi Deputy Chief Executive Officer

48 • Appointed Director and Deputy CEO in Oct 2012.

• Has more than 25 years of experience in the banking and

telecommunication sectors, with expertise in financial management.

• Prior to TIME, Rossana was attached to Maxis Berhad as CFO.

• Holds a Bachelor of Arts in Banking and Finance from University of Canberra,

Australia.

Long Sher NengLong Sher NengLong Sher NengLong Sher Neng Chief Financial Officer

40 • Joined TIME in March 2010 and was appointed CFO in September 2010.

• More than 15 years in financial management and operations.

• Holds a Bachelor of Business Administration (Hons) from Western Michigan

University, USA.

Yeong SuYeong SuYeong SuYeong Su----MengMengMengMeng Chief Marketing Officer

44 • Appointed Chief Marketing Officer in October 2013.

• More than 20 years of experience in the telco sector, with expertise in

product marketing and development. Prior to joining TIME, she was attached

to Maxis Berhad.

• Holds a Degree in Electronics and Communications Engineering from

University of Bristol, UK and MBA from Imperial College London.

Lee Guan HongLee Guan HongLee Guan HongLee Guan Hong Chief Engineering Officer

39 • Joined TIME in February 2009 and was appointed Chief Engineering Officer

in September 2010.

• More than 15 years of experience ranging from Internet services to the

telecommunications industry. Prior to joining TIME, he was attached to DiGi.

• Holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Management Information Systems from

University of Oklahoma, USA.

Lee Weng FakLee Weng FakLee Weng FakLee Weng Fak Head of Enterprise Business

52 • Joined TIME in May 2011.

• More than 30 years of experience in ICT industry, dealing with fast-paced,

rapidly expanding companies.

• Prior to joining TIME, Weng Fak was CEO/Co-founder of Niju Corporation

S/B, a systems integrator and ICT solution provider.

• Holds a Diploma in Computer Science, IDPM, UK.

Saiful Husni SamakSaiful Husni SamakSaiful Husni SamakSaiful Husni Samak CEO, Global Transit

45 • Appointed CEO of Global Transit in May 2009.

• More than 20 years of experience in the banking and telco industries.

• Prior to Global Transit, he was attached to Fibre Comm as Chief Marketing

Officer.

• Holds an MBA from University of Southern Cross, Australia and Degree in

Economics and Finance from University of Hartford, USA.

Chiew Kok HinChiew Kok HinChiew Kok HinChiew Kok Hin CEO, AIMS Group

38 • Joined AIMS in 1997 and was appointed CEO in January 2010.

• Chairman of Malaysian Internet Exchange (MyIX) – a non-profit and neutral

Internet Exchange where local ISPs and content providers connect to

exchange Internet traffic.

• Holds an MBA from Nottingham Trent University, UK.

Source: Company, AllianceDBS

Page 6

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Investment Merits Leveraging on the Leveraging on the Leveraging on the Leveraging on the secularsecularsecularsecular growth in datagrowth in datagrowth in datagrowth in data.... According to

Telegeography, global internet bandwidth usage is expected

to grow at a 35% CAGR from 2010-2019, largely driven by

rising Internet penetration and faster Internet access. We

believe TIME is a prime beneficiary of this secular growth

trend due to its focus on data (>80% of revenue) and also

the rapid expansion of its international bandwidth business.

Global internet bandwidth usage (Gbps)

Sources: Telegeography

On the domestic side, we see TIME also benefitting from

rising mobile data usage and the rollout of 4G LTE services, as

cellular operators face the need to fiberise their base tower

stations in order to cater for the surge in bandwidth demand.

Apart from that, higher internet penetration, particularly in

the Indochina region, should also drive higher transborder

traffic for TIME, as telcos in that region increasingly seek

access to Singapore via Malaysia.

A better value propositionA better value propositionA better value propositionA better value proposition once once once once APG APG APG APG is completedis completedis completedis completed.... Once APG

is completed, TIME will have its own end-to-end connectivity

to North Asia and US. This should help to reduce its reliance

on Singapore as a hub to carry its customers’ traffic to and

from Japan and US, saving some costs in the process.

Going forward, TIME also intends to sell APG and Unity

bandwidth together as a package, hence providing a better

value proposition to its customers who are seeking

connectivity ultimately to the US. We believe this should help

to drive higher utilisation rates as well as fetch better margins

for TIME’s international bandwidth business.

TIME APG and Trans-Pacific submarine cable systems

Sources: Company

Growth Strategies Capacity upgrade andCapacity upgrade andCapacity upgrade andCapacity upgrade and investment intoinvestment intoinvestment intoinvestment into new submarine cablenew submarine cablenew submarine cablenew submarine cablessss....

We understand that the Unity cable system is almost at full

capacity. As such, TIME is in the midst of upgrading the

transmission technology to a higher speed which should

expand the capacity of Unity from 800Gbps to 1.1Tbps. This

will likely be completed in early FY15.

In anticipation of the higher traffic for the Japan-US route

once APG starts commissioning by 3Q15, TIME has also

recently participated in a consortium to build another Trans-

Pacific cable system called FASTER. FASTER will provide TIME

with an additional capacity of 10Tbps (10x more than Unity)

once it is completed in 2016 or early 2017.

Asia-Africa-Europe-1 Cable System (AAE-1)

Sources: Company

Additionally, TIME has also invested into AAE-1 which will

extend its own-network reach to South Asia, the Middle East

and Europe, once completed in 2016. It will also provide

diversity for its APG submarine cable system capacity between

Malaysia and Hong Kong. The allocation of capacity to

Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam will also further support its

regional expansion initiatives in the future.

46,210 67,551

93,921 129,491

175,423

236,937

319,027

424,115

564,300

751,522

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Page 7

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Regional eRegional eRegional eRegional expansion in xpansion in xpansion in xpansion in ASEAN. ASEAN. ASEAN. ASEAN. Through APG, TIME will have

direct network connectivity to ASEAN countries such as

Thailand and Vietnam. This would help to facilitate its longer-

term strategy to expand in the ASEAN region.

Potential cPotential cPotential cPotential consolidation in the donsolidation in the donsolidation in the donsolidation in the data centre market.ata centre market.ata centre market.ata centre market. Despite

overcapacity of data centres in Malaysia, TIME is still able to

achieve decent occupancy rates of 60-80% for its facilities at

Menara AIMS and CJ1, Cyberjaya. Management is aware that

other data centre operators are not doing well and is keen to

take over their assets if they go under. Nonetheless, if this

scenario fails to materialise, TIME still has a piece of land in

Cyberjaya (purchased recently) where it can build data centre

facilities, if needed.

Key Risks Steeper decline in bandwidth pricesSteeper decline in bandwidth pricesSteeper decline in bandwidth pricesSteeper decline in bandwidth prices.... International bandwidth

prices have always been in a natural declining trend, though

this has been more than offset by the strong demand growth,

resulting in modest growth in revenue for most routes over

time. Based on statistics by Telegeography, median prices for

major routes declined between 10-26% from 2012 to 2013,

and between 17-30% compounded annually from 2010 to

2013. Any steeper-than-expected decline in bandwidth prices

(we assume 20% price erosion annually) and/or slowdown in

demand will be an earnings risk to TIME from its international

bandwidth business.

Potential damage to Potential damage to Potential damage to Potential damage to submarine cables.submarine cables.submarine cables.submarine cables. Service disruption or

failure of TIME submarine cables due to damage (from

natural disasters, etc.) will cause TIME to fail to meet

customers’ performance requirements. In turn, this could

cause TIME to lose customers and/or become liable to them

for damages. Nonetheless, this risk should lessen in the future

as TIME invests and owns more submarine cables. These

submarine cables could serve as backup/alternative to each

other as and when one of them suffers a service disruption.

Intense Intense Intense Intense price competition from incumbent TMprice competition from incumbent TMprice competition from incumbent TMprice competition from incumbent TM.... Aggressive

price competition in the domestic market by incumbent

Telekom Malaysia (TM) is a risk, though we believe the

probability is low, given TM’s dominant market share of 85%.

Any irrational price competition is likely to hurt TM more than

TIME.

Forex risk.Forex risk.Forex risk.Forex risk. TIME is exposed to forex risks since sales of its

international bandwidth business are denominated in USD. Its

USD-denominated sales are expected to grow higher in the

future (currently at about 25%), in tandem with the

expansion of its international bandwidth business.

Financial Highlights

Adjusted earnings for TIME (excluding one-off and dividend income from DiGi)

Sources: Company, AllianceDBS

Strong earnings growth in FY15Strong earnings growth in FY15Strong earnings growth in FY15Strong earnings growth in FY15----16F16F16F16F.... Normalised for one-off

items (revaluation gain and last mile tax incentives) and

excluding dividend income from DiGi, we forecast TIME to

achieve earnings growth of 11-13% in FY15-16F. This will be

largely underpinned by its international bandwidth business in

the wholesale segment whose growth will be boosted by the

commissioning of APG starting 3Q15. Meanwhile, we expect

other major business divisions such as domestic wholesale,

enterprise, and data centre to record relatively stable growth

(see Key Assumptions table on Page 10 for a summary of the

y-o-y growth for TIME’s key business divisions).

Revenue breakdown, by segment


Strong wholesale segment driven by Global Transit. Strong wholesale segment driven by Global Transit. Strong wholesale segment driven by Global Transit. Strong wholesale segment driven by Global Transit. We

forecast growth for the wholesale segment to accelerate to

15% and 24% in FY15-16F, stronger than the expected 10%

growth in FY14F. This is mainly due to the upgrade in Unity

capacity (from 800Gbps to 1.1Tbps) and commissioning of

59.2

75.3 73.7

116.2 116.7

131.7

146.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F

Adjusted earnings (in RM m)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F

Wholesale (include Global Transit)Enterprise (include data center)SME & Consumer

Page 8

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

the APG cable system (capacity of 3.4Tbps) starting 3Q15.

The stronger USD (vs. Ringgit) also partly helps to boost

revenue since the sales of international bandwidth are

denominated in USD.

Meanwhile, we expect growth for domestic wholesale to

remain healthy, given increasing node fiberisation by telcos to

cater to higher demand for data and the rollout of 4G LTE

services. Also, with end-to-end connectivity to North Asia and

US once APG starts operating, we believe there will also be

an increase in transborder traffic from Indochina.

Conservative growthConservative growthConservative growthConservative growth forecast for enterprise segmentforecast for enterprise segmentforecast for enterprise segmentforecast for enterprise segment. . . .

Enterprise segment consists of revenue from government

organisations and corporates, as well as from its data centre

business. We conservatively forecast growth for this segment

to be within 6-8% in FY14-FY16F, lower than the double-

digit growth recorded over the past few years. This is mainly

due to the competitive market environment where; 1) There

has been a shift by customers from dedicated corporate-

grade broadband to consumer-grade broadband, given the

introduction of Unifi-for-Business by TM; and 2) Overcapacity

of data centres in the Malaysia market.

Improving marginsImproving marginsImproving marginsImproving margins.... We expect TIME’s EBITDA margins in

FY14-16F to stay at 35-36%, in line with management’s

guidance. Margins should gradually improve, albeit

marginally, as the utilisation rate of its submarine cable

system (i.e. upgraded Unity and newly commissioned APG)

rises progressively over the years.

TIME EBITDA margins (%)


Effective tax rate to remain lowEffective tax rate to remain lowEffective tax rate to remain lowEffective tax rate to remain low.... The effective tax rate for

TIME has been low all this while, given substantial capital

allowances and tax losses accumulated over the years. We

assume the effective tax rate to remain at 5% in FY14-FY15F,

but would rise to 7% in FY16F, given higher contribution

from its profitable subsidiary, i.e. Global Transit. Note that

there was a one-off positive tax charge in 2013, as TIME was

granted a tax incentive for its last mile network facilities.

Higher capex in FY15Higher capex in FY15Higher capex in FY15Higher capex in FY15----16F16F16F16F. . . . TIME is guiding for higher capex of

RM415m and RM250m in FY15-16F respectively. The

additional capex is to finance the construction of the FASTER

and AAE-1 submarine cable systems, which total investments

cost about USD56m and USD44m respectively. Thereafter, we

assume capex to normalise to RM150-175m, in line with

management’s guidance of RM150-200m for recurring

capex.

Borrowings to partly finance capex. Borrowings to partly finance capex. Borrowings to partly finance capex. Borrowings to partly finance capex. In view of the higher

capex, we believe TIME is likely to partly finance its capex via

borrowings. This will turn its balance sheet from net cash

currently into a slight net debt position by FY15F, with

gearing level at less than 0.1x net-debt/equity. This is still well

below management’s comfortable gearing level of 0.3x net

debt-to-equity and also below its peers in the Malaysian telco

sector.

Dividend policy. Dividend policy. Dividend policy. Dividend policy. TIME has formalised a dividend policy in early

2014 to pay up to 25% of normalised net profit. We see no

issue for TIME to meet its dividend policy, given its strong

cashflow generation and low gearing level. This implies a

FY14-16F net dividend yield of 1.4-1.8% for TIME.

Valuation Initiate coverage:Initiate coverage:Initiate coverage:Initiate coverage: BUY, SOPBUY, SOPBUY, SOPBUY, SOP----based TP based TP based TP based TP of of of of RM5.65RM5.65RM5.65RM5.65. . . . We initiate

coverage on TIME with a BUY recommendation and a SOP-

based TP of RM5.65, implying a FY15 valuation of 18.3x PE,

the cheapest among Malaysian telcos. Though its dividend

yield is lower than its peers, we believe this is more than

compensated by its strong growth potential, especially

beyond FY15F, when most of its submarine cables system will

start to come onstream.

Core business valued Core business valued Core business valued Core business valued at RMat RMat RMat RM3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 per shareper shareper shareper share based on DCF based on DCF based on DCF based on DCF

methodologymethodologymethodologymethodology.... This is based on WACC of 9.5% and terminal

growth of 2.5% (see Table below for our DCF calculation).

DiGi stake is worth RM1.66 per TIME shareDiGi stake is worth RM1.66 per TIME shareDiGi stake is worth RM1.66 per TIME shareDiGi stake is worth RM1.66 per TIME share. . . . After the

distribution of dividend-in-specie in 2013, TIME is left with

approximately 137.5m shares in DiGi. At our TP of RM6.60

for DiGi, this stake is worth about RM907m or RM1.66 per

TIME share.

27.0%

39.7%

32.8%

35.1% 35.2% 35.4% 36.3%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F

EBITDA margins

Page 9

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Fair value calculation for TIME

FYFYFYFY 2014F2014F2014F2014F 2015F2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F2016F 2017F2017F2017F2017F 2018F2018F2018F2018F 2019F2019F2019F2019F 2020F2020F2020F2020F 2021F2021F2021F2021F 2022F2022F2022F2022F Terminal Terminal Terminal Terminal

ValueValueValueValue EBIT 125.6 145.6 169.3 233.9 271.5 304.8 319.4 310.5 302.7

Taxation (6.3) (7.3) (11.9) (18.7) (24.4) (30.5) (31.9) (31.0) (30.3)

NOPAT NOPAT NOPAT NOPAT 119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3 138.3 138.3 138.3 138.3 157.4 157.4 157.4 157.4 215.2 215.2 215.2 215.2 247.1 247.1 247.1 247.1 274.3 274.3 274.3 274.3 287.5 287.5 287.5 287.5 279.4 279.4 279.4 279.4 272.5 272.5 272.5 272.5

Dep. & Amortisation 87.6 92.1 111.4 120.5 125.8 129.8 133.4 135.7 136.9

Working capital changes 3.9 1.7 0.5 (0.8) (0.7) (0.6) 0.2 0.9 0.9

Capex (220.0) (415.0) (250.0) (200.0) (175.0) (175.0) (175.0) (150.0) (150.0)

Others (Dividend from DiGi) (83.3) (31.8) (34.1) (37.7) (41.5) (43.3) (45.7) (47.4) (49.5)

FCFF FCFF FCFF FCFF (14.8) 97.2 155.6 185.2 200.3 218.6 210.8 3,083.8

Discount factor 0.91 0.83 0.76 0.70 0.64 0.58 0.53 0.53

PV of FCFF PV of FCFF PV of FCFF PV of FCFF (13.6)(13.6)(13.6)(13.6) 81.1 81.1 81.1 81.1 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5 128.8 128.8 128.8 128.8 127.2 127.2 127.2 127.2 126.8 126.8 126.8 126.8 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 1,633.2 1,633.2 1,633.2 1,633.2

Terminal growth 2.5%

NPV NPV NPV NPV 2,313.7

Cash @ end Dec 2015 186.4

Debt @ end Dec 2015 (315.7(315.7(315.7(315.7))))

Equity value Equity value Equity value Equity value 2,184.42,184.42,184.42,184.4

No. of shares 547.4

Equity value/shareEquity value/shareEquity value/shareEquity value/share 3.993.993.993.99

DiGi shares (m) 137.5

TP for DiGi (RM/share) 6.60

Value (RM m) 907.2

Value/shareValue/shareValue/shareValue/share 1.661.661.661.66

TP for TIME (RM/share)TP for TIME (RM/share)TP for TIME (RM/share)TP for TIME (RM/share) 5.655.655.655.65


Peer comparison (as at 31 Dec 2014)

Sources: AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P

CallTarget

Price

Current

Price

Market Cap

(USD)CY2014 CY2015 CY2014 CY2015 CY2014 CY2015 CY2014 CY2015 CY2014 CY2015

Axiata Group Hold 7.30 7.07 17,323.6 (13%) 12% 25.2x 22.5x 10.0x 9.0x 12% 13% 3.0% 3.6%

Maxis Fully Valued 6.05 6.87 14,724.5 (2%) 9% 25.2x 23.0x 13.7x 13.1x 37% 44% 5.8% 4.4%

DiGi.com Buy 6.60 6.24 13,852.6 16% 11% 24.6x 22.3x 15.2x 13.8x 298% 330% 4.1% 4.5%

Telekom Malaysia Hold 6.75 6.91 7,338.3 (22%) 19% 30.7x 25.9x 7.7x 7.6x 11% 13% 2.9% 3.5%

Time dotCom Buy 5.65 4.88 799.0 (48%) 12% 17.7x 15.8x 10.5x 10.1x 7% 8% 1.4% 1.6%

Average (5%) 12% 25.7x 22.9x 12.0x 11.2x 92% 103% 4.0% 4.0%

Dividend YieldEV/EBITDA ROAEP/E EPS Growth

Page 10

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Key Assumptions

FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2011201120112011AAAA 2012201220122012AAAA 2013201320132013AAAA 2014201420142014FFFF 2015201520152015FFFF 2016201620162016FFFF

Revenue growth (%)

Wholesale (10.1) 30.6 42.9 10.2 15.3 23.9

Enterprise 12.1 39.2 21.4 8.0 5.7 5.8

SME & Consumer (24.0) 14.4 16.0 24.0 12.0 10.0

Segmental Breakdown

FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2011201120112011AAAA 2012201220122012AAAA 2013201320132013AAAA 2014201420142014FFFF 2015201520152015FFFF 2016201620162016FFFF Revenues (RM m)

Data 234 306 412 465 529 629

Voice 77 78 75 69 65 61

Data centre 0 34 59 66 72 77

Others 3 2 3 2 2 3

TotalTotalTotalTotal 314314314314 419419419419 548548548548 602602602602 668668668668 770770770770


Driven by increased submarine capacity from Unity upgrade and commissioning of APG

Growth largely driven by data, especially from international bandwidth business

Page 11

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Income Statement (RM m)


Revenue 314 419 548 602 668 770

Cost of Goods Sold (190) (286) (358) (392) (433) (493)

Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 123123123123 133133133133 190190190190 210210210210 235235235235 277277277277

Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (53) (59) (72) (85) (89) (108)

Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 70707070 73737373 118118118118 126126126126 146146146146 169169169169

Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0 0

Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 7 0 (2) (3) (7) (12)

Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 349 0 0 0

PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 119119119119 157157157157 497497497497 157157157157 176176176176 199199199199

Tax (2) 37 144 (6) (7) (11)

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0

Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 117117117117 194194194194 641641641641 151151151151 169169169169 188188188188

Net Profit before Except. 117 194 292 151 169 188

EBITDA 167 221 225 247 275 322

Growth

Revenue Gth (%) (2.2) 33.5 30.8 9.9 10.8 15.3

EBITDA Gth (%) 23.8 32.6 1.8 9.9 11.4 17.0

Opg Profit Gth (%) 94.3 4.4 61.0 6.4 15.9 16.3

Net Profit Gth (%) 9.6 65.1 231.0 (76.5) 12.2 10.9

Margins & Ratio

Gross Margins (%) 39.3 31.6 34.7 34.9 35.2 36.0

Opg Profit Margin (%) 22.4 17.5 21.5 20.8 21.8 22.0

Net Profit Margin (%) 37.4 46.2 117.0 25.0 25.3 24.4

ROAE (%) 7.8 9.1 28.6 7.3 7.8 8.1

ROA (%) 6.9 8.1 24.6 6.2 6.4 6.5

ROCE (%) 4.6 3.3 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.0

Div Payout Ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0

Net Interest Cover (x) NM NM 64.2 45.1 20.0 13.9


Margins Trend

16.0%

36.0%

56.0%

76.0%

96.0%

116.0%

2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %

One-off gain from the revaluation of DiGi shares

Recognition of tax incentive related to last mile network facilities

Page 12

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Balance Sheet (RM m)

FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2011201120112011AAAA 2012201220122012AAAA 2013201320132013AAAA 2014201420142014FFFF 2015201520152015FFFF 2016201620162016FFFF Net Fixed Assets 449 717 812 944 1,267 1,406

Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other LT Assets 1,109 1,741 1,119 1,119 1,119 1,119

Cash & ST Invts 235 247 263 247 203 256

Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debtors 158 154 157 172 191 220

Other Current Assets 1 1 0 1 1 2

Total AssetsTotal AssetsTotal AssetsTotal Assets 1,9511,9511,9511,951 2,8602,8602,8602,860 2,3522,3522,3522,352 2,4852,4852,4852,485 2,7822,7822,7822,782 3,0033,0033,0033,003

ST Debt

0 12 35 35 35 35

Creditor 193 221 176 196 217 246

Other Current Liab 0 1 1 1 1 1

LT Debt 0 143 130 130 280 330

Other LT Liabilities 0 4 5 5 5 5

Shareholder’s Equity 1,758 2,480 2,004 2,117 2,244 2,384

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab. 1,9511,9511,9511,951 2,8602,8602,8602,860 2,3522,3522,3522,352 2,4852,4852,4852,485 2,7822,7822,7822,782 3,0033,0033,0033,003

Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (34) (67) (19) (23) (25) (25)

Net Cash/(Debt) 235 92 97 82 (113) (110)

Debtors Turn (avg days) 174.9 136.0 103.7 99.8 99.2 97.4

Creditors Turn (avg days) 502.3 339.9 256.7 223.2 220.9 221.5

Inventory Turn (avg days) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Asset Turnover (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

Current Ratio (x) 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7

Quick Ratio (x) 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7

Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH 0.1 0.0

Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH 0.1 0.0

Capex to Debt (%) N/A 96.8 107.0 132.7 131.4 68.4


Asset Breakdown

Higher debt to fund capex

Page 13

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Cash Flow Statement (RM m)


Pre-Tax Profit 119 157 497 157 176 199

Dep. & Amort. 54 64 75 88 92 111

Tax Paid (1) (6) (5) (6) (7) (11)

Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chg in Wkg.Cap. (4) 32 (47) 4 2 0

Other Operating CF (83) (105) (376) (40) (42) (46)

Net Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CF 85858585 142142142142 144144144144 203203203203 220220220220 253253253253

Capital Exp.(net) (117) (150) (177) (220) (415) (250)

Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 0 0

Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other Investing CF 50 6 38 40 42 46

Net Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CF (67)(67)(67)(67) (143)(143)(143)(143) (139)(139)(139)(139) (180)(180)(180)(180) (373)(373)(373)(373) (204)(204)(204)(204)

Div Paid 0 0 0 (38) (42) (47)

Chg in Gross Debt 0 59 2 0 150 50

Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other Financing CF 0 (51) (2) 0 0 0

Net Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CF 0000 8888 (1)(1)(1)(1) (38)(38)(38)(38) 108108108108 3333

Currency Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chg in Cash 18 6 4 (15) (44) 53

Opg CFPS (sen) 17.6 20.1 34.9 36.3 40.0 46.1

Free CFPS (sen) (6.3) (1.4) (6.1) (3.2) (35.5) 0.6


Capital Expenditure

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F

Capital Expenditure (-)

Additional capex for FASTER and AAE-1 submarine cable systems

Page 14

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RM m)

FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2Q2Q2Q2Q2013201320132013 3Q3Q3Q3Q2013201320132013 4Q4Q4Q4Q2013201320132013 1Q1Q1Q1Q2014201420142014 2Q2Q2Q2Q2014201420142014 3Q3Q3Q3Q2014201420142014

Revenue 134 132 149 132 156 151

Cost of Goods Sold (102) (107) (122) (110) (120) (109)

Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 32323232 25252525 27272727 22222222 36363636 42424242

Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc 1 0 2 0 1 0

Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 33333333 25252525 29292929 23232323 37373737 42424242

Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 12 8 9 11 10 11

Associates & JV Inc N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)

Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 392392392392 31313131 36363636 32323232 45454545 51515151

Tax (2) (3) 151 (2) (2) (2)

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 390390390390 28282828 187187187187 29292929 44444444 50505050

Net profit bef Except. 41 28 187 29 44 50

EBITDA 63 52 59 54 69 74

Growth

Revenue Gth (%) nm (1.6) 13.1 (11.6) 18.1 (3.3)

EBITDA Gth (%) nm (17.9) 15.0 (8.9) 26.9 8.4

Opg Profit Gth (%) nm (25.0) 15.7 (21.4) 63.4 15.0

Net Profit Gth (%) nm (92.8) 561.0 (84.2) 49.5 13.7

Margins

Gross Margins (%) 24.1 19.0 18.0 16.7 23.1 27.9

Opg Profit Margins (%) 24.7 18.8 19.2 17.1 23.7 28.1

Net Profit Margins (%) 291.1 21.4 125.1 22.3 28.2 33.2


Margins Trend

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

2Q

2013

3Q

2013

4Q

2013

1Q

2014

2Q

2014

3Q

2014

Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %

Recognition of tax incentives for last mile network facilities

Page 15

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

DISCLOSURE

Stock rating definitions STRONG BUY - > 20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame BUY - > 15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps HOLD - -10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps FULLY VALUED - negative total return > -10% over the next 12 months SELL - negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame Commonly used abbreviations Adex = advertising expenditure EPS = earnings per share PBT = profit before tax bn = billion EV = enterprise value P/B = price / book ratio BV = book value FCF = free cash flow P/E = price / earnings ratio CF = cash flow FV = fair value PEG = P/E ratio to growth ratio CAGR = compounded annual growth rate FY = financial year q-o-q = quarter-on-quarter Capex = capital expenditure m = million RM = Ringgit CY = calendar year M-o-m = month-on-month ROA = return on assets Div yld = dividend yield NAV = net assets value ROE = return on equity DCF = discounted cash flow NM = not meaningful TP = target price DDM = dividend discount model NTA = net tangible assets trn = trillion DPS = dividend per share NR = not rated WACC = weighted average cost of capital EBIT = earnings before interest & tax p.a. = per annum y-o-y = year-on-year EBITDA = EBIT before depreciation and amortisation PAT = profit after tax YTD = year-to-date

Page 16

Company Focus

TIME dotCom Bhd

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared for information purposes only by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd (“ADBSR”) (formerly known as HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd), a subsidiary of Alliance Investment Bank Berhad (“AIBB”) and an associate of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd (“DBSVH”). DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. This report is strictly confidential and is meant for circulation to clients of ADBSR, AIBB and DBSVH only or such persons as may be deemed eligible to receive such research report, information or opinion contained herein. Receipt and review of this report indicate your agreement not to distribute, reproduce or disclose in any other form or medium (whether electronic or otherwise) the contents, views, information or opinions contained herein without the prior written consent of ADBSR. 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In particular, it is highlighted that this report is not intended for nor does it have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors are therefore advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situations and particular needs and consult their own professional advisers (including but not limited to financial, legal and tax advisers) regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investments that may be featured in this report. ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd, their directors, representatives and employees or any of their affiliates or their related parties may, from time to time, have an interest in the securities mentioned in this report. 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DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this report should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients. In reviewing this report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the overriding issue of confidentiality, available upon request to enable an investor to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained herein.

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Published and Printed by

AllianceDBS Research Sdn BhdAllianceDBS Research Sdn BhdAllianceDBS Research Sdn BhdAllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd (128540 U)

(formerly known as HWANGDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd)

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Company Focus TIME dotCom Bhd - klse.i3investor.com · incumbent Telekom Malaysia (TM) is a risk, though we believe the probability is low, given TM’s dominant market share of 85%.

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