Community vulnerability and climate change Jason Kreitler, USGS
Jan 18, 2016
Community vulnerability and climate change
Jason Kreitler, USGS
Various projects ongoing
• Geography of climate change – mostly ecological– Vulnerability and how to
adapt?• Community vulnerability
to wildland fire – Socioecological– Less climate
change
Impacts of climate change on communities
• Important general questions:– Is climate changing?– How, where, and at what
rate?– What are the effects?– What are the threats?– How do those threats
affect people & communities?
– Changes in magintude and timing of temp & precip, vegetation distrubution and phenology
– Drought, changes in severity and length of fire season, flooding, sea level rise, snowmelt timing
– Direct exposure to threats, changes to agricultural production, changes in ecosystem services, cultural disruption, economic disruption, conflict
Global CO2 emissions – IPCC 4th assessment
Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS
A2
B1: stabilizing population, rapid technology conversion
growing population, high carbon energy sources
IPCC 2007, Fig. 10.4
Projections of future temperature – IPCC 4th assessment
A2
B1
Bay Area climate
summer maxtemperature
precipitation
water deficit
winter mintemperature
PRISM climate layers downscaled to 270 m by Al and Lorrie Flint, USS
Climatic Water Deficit:excess evaporative demand relative to available water
PET depends on temperature and insolationWater availability depends
on precipitation, soil storage and runoff
CWD
courtesy: Al and Lorrie Flint, USGSsee Stephenson 1998 J. Biogeog.
Diana Stalberg et al. 2010 PLoS ONE (PRBO) Will Cornwell et al. in prep. (UC Berkeley)
Several, independent approaches to vegetation modeling agree: future climates favor shrub and grassland at the expense of forest
‘Random forest’ model of CalVeg types800 m resolution, UCSC regional climate model
Predictive vegetation modeling of Bay Area vegetation270 m downscaled climate, GFDL mid-century future
forest remaining
forest woodland
forest shrubland
Relative probability of vegetation transition
(GFDL A2, mid-century vs. present)
The vulnerability of vegetation types is very patchy:high probabilities of change occur where vegetation patches are near the edge of their climate
envelope
W. Cornwell et al. in prep.
Native vegetation transitions vs. alien invasions
vegetation transitions depend on:1) mortality of existing mature plants2) propagule sources for new species
source: Larry Workman QIN, Panoramio.com
?
Agents of mortality: Disease
source: UC Davis; http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070815145316.htm
Sudden oak death
source: Center for Invasive Species ResearchUC Riverside
Agents of mortality: Drought and pests
piñon pine mortalitycredit: Craig Allen, USGS
Agents of mortality: Fire
Historical probability of fire1950-2003
(climate-driven model) 2010-2039 (A2) 2070-2099 (A2)
16 GCM ensemble (A2 scenario): change relative to historical period
Figures: courtesy Meg Krawchuck and Max Mortiz, UC BerkeleyHistorical: Parisien and Moritz 2009 Ecol. Monogr.
Futures: Moritz et al. in review
Cohesive Strategy• 3 Phases• Just finished
Phase 2• Next, how to
quantify for national tradeoff analysis
Fire adapted human community conceptual diagrams
Fire adapted human community conceptual diagrams