Community tsunami inundation maps for selected ICG/CARIBE EWS member states C. Sánchez-Linares 1 ([email protected]), Jorge Macías 1 , Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga 2 , Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe 2 , Mauricio González 2 & Bernardo Aliaga 3 1 Edanya Team, University of Málaga. Spain. 2 Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental "IH Cantabria". Spain. 3 Intergovernmentl Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO. Paris. France. The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions, IOC/UNESCO, as part of its Tsunami Programme is currently implementing major initiatives aimed at reducing the vulnerability of its Member States in the Caribbean and adjacent regions to tsunamis and other coastal hazards. This project focuses on supporting the CARIBE EWS, coordinated by ICG/CARIBE, to develop accurate products towards the reduction of the tsunami vulnerability and the advance of the global tsunami preparedness in the area. • Strengthen the capacities of early warning and response for tsunamis in the Caribbean • Develop of community-level tsunami inundation maps for select coastal communities • Support communities preparation for and response to tsunamis Tsunami-HySEA model implements in the same code the three phases of an earthquake generated tsunami: generation (Okada deformation model), propagation and coastal inundation (non-linear shallow-water system). Introduction • In the generation stage, Okada’s fault deformation model (Okada, 1985) is used to predict the initial bottom deformation that is trans- mitted to the sea surface. • Assumes that an earthqueake can be regarded as the rupture of a single fault plane. • The fault is described by a series of parameters, comprising dip angle, strike angle, rake angle, fault width, fault length, and fault depth. • Tsunami-HySEA can combine several fault planes to model the com- plete seafloor deformation and each fault could be applied at different time steps to simulate the full rupture time. Okada deformation model • Uses the well known 2D nonlinear one-layer shallow water system. +( ) +( ) =0 ( ) + 2 + 2 2 + = H + S ( ) + 2 + 2 2 = H + S Reference level H h 1 η 1 • ( ) denotes the thickness of thewater layer at point ∈ D ⊂ R 2 at time , being D the horizon- tal projection of the 3D domain where the tsunami takes place. • H ( ) is the depth of the bottom at point(x)measured from a fixed level of reference. • η( )= ( ) - H ( ) corresponds to the free sur- face of the fluid. • ( )=( ( ) ( )) is the mass-flow of the water layer at point at time . • S and S parametrizes the friction effects S (U )= - 2 4/ 3 S (U )= - 2 4/ 3 where > 0 is the Manning coefficient. Shallow Water System Equations • Solves the two-dimensional shallow-watersystem using a high-order (second and third order) path- conservative finite volume method. • The numerical scheme is conservative for both mass and momentum in flat bathymetries, and, in general, is mass preserving for arbitrary bathymetries. • Implementation of Tsunami-HySEA has been performed on GPU clusters and it handles nested grids. • These facts allows to speedup the computations, being able to perform complex simulations, in huge do- mains, much faster than real time Numerical Scheme Tsunami-HySEA numerical model Saint John s (Antigua & Barbuda) Speightstown (Barbados) Puerto Plata (Dom. Rep) Union Island (SVG) Carenage (Trinidad & Tobago) Bathymetry SCB Data provided by Department of Environment. Digitization of nautical charts Lidar data. Resolution 1m, provided by the Coastal Zone Management Unit. Digitization of Nautical charts Provided by UNESCO from a previous project in the area. Bathymetric contours Provided by NOAA resolution 30m Digitization of Nautical Charts DEM Satellite data provided by Department of Environment Resolution: 1m Lidar data. Resolution 1m, provided by the Coastal Zone Management Unit Provided by UNESCO from a previous project in the area. Resolution 30 m Provided by NOAA Resolution 5m; Some uncertainties found Provided by ODPM. Resolution 30m Collected data COMMUNITIES Level NESTED GRIDS # OF CELLS RESOLUTION (meters) DOM. REP 0 Caribbean Sea 4231x2078 1820 1 Approximation 1 324x126 960 2 Approximarion 2 432x316 240 3 Puerto Plata 1464x1088 30 ANTIGUA & BARBUDA 0 Caribbean Sea 1927x986 2048 1 Antigua 208x176 128 2 Saint John’s 944x672 8 BARBADOS 0 Caribbean Sea 4561x2237 900 1 Barbados 480x472 120 2 West Coast 512x896 15 3 Speightstown 1704x2920 2 TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 0 Caribbean Sea 4561x2237 960 1 North Trinidad 468x200 240 2 West Trinidad 628x336 60 3 Carenage 572x428 15 SVG 0 Caribbean Sea 1591x770 2600 1 Saint Vincent 468x200 330 2 Union Island 628x336 40 3 Local Detail 572x428 5 EVENT Simulation time # of GPUs * Runtime CARIBE_LAS 8 hours 1 2 min CARIBE_LAN 8 hours 1 2 min CARIBE_NORTHERNHAITI 8 hours 1 2 min DO_NORTHERNHAITI_4L 2 hours 1 9 min AG_LAN_3L 3 hours 1 4 min BB_LAS_4L 2 hours 4 48 min SVG_LAS_4L 2 hours 1 9 min TT_LAS_4L 2 hours 1 5 min * Tesla V100 graphic cards (2018 Volta architecture, released 7 Dec 2017) Nested meshes Topobathymetric data • A specific seismotectonic study was carried out, based on the tsunami historical events and the available catalogue of tsunami scenarios. • Numerous scenarios were simulated. • Worst-case scenarios were selected to proceed with a deterministic analyses of the tsunami hazard. Communities Source St. John’s (capital) LAN Speightstown LAS Puerto Plata NORTHERN HAITI Union Island LAS Carenage LAS Initial deformation of the selected sources. They are all depicted in the same figure although they were considered separately for the analysis and definition of tsunamigenic sources EVENT LONGITUDE LATITUDE DEPTH LENGTH WIDTH STRIKE DIP RAKE SLIP LAS -59.0817 12.70847 15.25 370.933 211.966 181.5 8 90 5.96 LAN -60.4487 16.82799 15.25 406.692 141.887 143.943 12 90 4.28 -74.0091 20.5871 20 109 59 111 21 90 10 -72.60172 20.3025 20 193 59 97 21 90 10 NORTHERN HAITI -70.2080 19.8761 20 317 59 103 21 90 10 Tsunamigenic sources characterization Maximum height in selected events and locations using coarsest level in Caribbean and high resolution level in local communities Propagation maps ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r " G " G " G " G " G " G " H Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç " Î I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J " R " R " R " R " R " R " R " R L ( P " F " E " E " o " o " o " o " o " o " o " o " o " o Fortaleza de S. Felipe Mercado Liceo Jose Dubeau Gob. Provinc. Min. Turismo Trib.Tierra Pal. Justicia D uar te Sánchez Neptuno Luis Espinos. gura b i to Sánchez Av Circunvalacion Norte Proyecto Sajoma Calle 2 Calle B Respaldo Hnas. Mirabal Calle 8 Calle 3ra. Andrés Brugal Calle 9 Las Dalias Paúl Harr i s El Morro Marianela Viuda Hall Avenid a Isabel de Torres Altagracia Calle Mella Las Caobas Te r esa Suárez Las Rosas Calle 6 Calle Beller Calle 3 La Estancia Hos e Puig R e spaldo 27 d e F e b r ero Gre gorio Lora Calle 1r a. Hugo Kounhardt V ista A legr e Capotillo I mber t Dr. Zafra Los Flamboyanes 20 de Diciembre J. A. Puig Girasol Villanu eva Tulipanes Juan Lafite Reina de las Flores Antiguo Camino real A P uer to Plata Las Acacias Salomé Ureña Orquídeas Ca rretera al Tele f éri co Antera Mota Aven ida Penetracion P or t ua ri a Camino Real Av. 26 de agosto Gua y acanes 27 de Febrero Calle Antera Mota El Peñon Cardenal Sancha Cristobal Colón 30 de Marzo Avenida Co lón Prof. Juan Bosch Av. Ped r o Cli sante Av. Luís G inebra Calle Co sta D orada Joseph E. Ku n h a rdt Calle Principal Playa Dora da Av. Ge neral G re gorio Luperón Ru t a a Isabel de Torres R u t a a I s abel de T orres Av. Manolo Tavárez Ju s t o Navarrete - Puerto Plata Pu erto P. - Playa Dorada Navarrete - Puerto Plata Acapulco Beach Cosita Rica Beach Long Beach Playa el Chaparral Playa Dorada Playa Bergantin Playa Bergantin Playa Costambar Playa Cofresí Playa Marapica Playa Dorada Costa Dorada R ío C a mú R ío San M ar c os " ) RD-5 " ) RD-5 " ) RD-5 " ) RD-5 " ) RD-5 Puerto de Puerto Plata Puerto Plata MAPA DE INUNDACIÓN POR TSUNAMI Mar Caribe Océano Atlántico República Dominicana Puerto Plata Æ Ç CENTRO EDUCATIVO " H HOSPITAL " G CENTRO DE SALUD " R IGLESIA I J HOTEL " o OTROS EDIFICIOS RELEVANTES ! r PLAYA L ( P POLICÍA " Î PUERTO " F BOMBEROS " E EMERGENCIA/RESCATE PROFUNDIDAD INUNDACIÓN (METROS) 0.1 - 0.5 0.6 - 1 1.1 - 1.5 1.6 - 2 2.1 - 3 3.1 - 5 5.1 - 10 10 - 20.4 t Proyección: WGS 1984 UTM Zona 19N Datum: WGS 1984 0 500 1000 1500 2000 m. Escala 1:14,000 SIMBOLOGÍA " S2 " S2 ! r ! r ! r ! r " Î " F L ( P L ( P L ( P " R " R " R " R " R " R " R " R Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Æ Ç Ballast Bay Side Hill Bay Fort Bay The Cove Hog John Bay Pillar Rock Bay Deepwater Harbour Fort James Beach Yepton Beach Helipad INUNDATION DEPTH (METERS) < 1 1 - 2 2 - 3 3 - 4 4 - 4.5 t 1:5,000 Scale 0 170 340 510 680 m. Projection: Antigua 1943 Transverse Mercator Datum: Antigua 1943 TSUNAMI INUNDATION MAP Antigua & Barbuda Saint John's Caribean Sea Atlantic Ocean St. John's Antigua Æ Ç SCHOOL " H HEALTH CENTRE I J HOTEL " R RELIGIOUS PLACE ! r BEACH L ( P POLICE " Î PORT " F FIRE STATION " S1 SHELTER - PRIMARY LEGEND " R " R " Î " Î I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J I J ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r ! r " S2 L ( P Æ Ç Æ Ç " ) H1 " ) H1 " ) H1B " ) H1C " ) H1B Six Men's Cul-de-sac Q ue en s S t r e e t Round the Town Golden Mile R West Drive Major Walk Chapel Street 4 t hA v e N o r t h D r i v e Mango Lane Sa n d S t r e e t 2nd Avenue Gills Terrace Caribbean Drive 2nd A v e North Dr i ve Farm Tenantey R Farm Road 7th Av Nor t East D Goodings Alley Major W alk Rumours Battaley Porters Road Marlin Driv Alms Gap Archers Lane Burma 1 s t A v e n u e Bovell Road Church Street Mullins R Cr esce nt D rive H ig hwa y 3rd East Drive West Drive Sweet Home Road Church Street Gardens Clinkets Village Golden Mile Road Heywoods Park S Colleton Gardens Mullins Terrace C Cemetery Lane H i g h w a y 1B Alexandra School Half Moon Fort Primary School Port St.Charles Port Ferdinand St. Peter's Churches Community Berean Bible Baptist Church Six Men's Bay Beach Mullins Bay Beach Gibbes Bay Beach Godings Bay Beach Speightstown Beach Speightstown Nor Beach Heywoods South Beach Heywoods North Beach Six Men's Speightstown t Projection: Barbados 1938 National Grid Datum: Barbados 1938 0 150 300 450 600 m. Scale 1:4,500 TSUNAMI INUNDATION MAP Speightstown Caribbean Sea Atlantic Ocean Æ Ç SCHOOL " R RELIGIOUS SITE OF WORSHIP I J HOTEL / GUEST HOUSE " Î PORT ! r BEACH L ( P POLICE " S1 SHELTER - CAT. 1 " S2 SHELTER - CAT. 2 INUNDATION DEPTH (METERS) < 0.5 0.5 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 3 3 - 3.8 Barbados Speightstown Inundation maps presented during the workshops at each community Inundation maps Results References • Macías, J., Mercado, A., González-Vida, J.M., Ortega, S., and Castro, M.J. (2016). Comparison and numerical performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST models for LANTEX 2013 scenario. Impact assessment on Puerto Rico coasts. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173(12), 3973–3997 • Macías, J., Castro, M.J., Ortega, S., Escalante, C. and González-Vida, J.M. (2016). NTHMP Benchmarking of Tsunami-HySEA model for propagation and inundation. The 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop. [DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35077.76001] • Macías, J. (2014). Tsunami Numerical Simulations: HySEA model. A GPU approach to tsunami modeling and case studies. Experts Meeting Workshop on Tsunami Modeling and Mitigation. Cartagena de Indias (Colombia), 1-3 December, 2014. References • Macías, J., Mercado, A., González-Vida, J.M., Ortega, S., and Castro, M.J. (2016). Comparison and numerical performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST models for LANTEX 2013 scenario. Impact assessment on Puerto Rico coasts. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173(12), 3973–3997 • Macías, J., Castro, M.J., Ortega, S., Escalante, C. and González-Vida, J.M. (2016). NTHMP Benchmarking of Tsunami-HySEA model for propagation and inundation. The 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop. [DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35077.76001] • Macías, J. (2014). Tsunami Numerical Simulations: HySEA model. A GPU approach to tsunami modeling and case studies. Experts Meeting Workshop on Tsunami Modeling and Mitigation. Cartagena de Indias (Colombia), 1-3 December, 2014.