Colleges: Preparing America’s Workforce in the 21 st Century Presented by: Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College District
Community Colleges: Preparing America’s Workforce in the 21st Century
Presented by:
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College
District
What’s Changing?
Demographics Nature of work Workplace Worker
Future Work
By 2005, almost half of all workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology.
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
Future Work (cont.)
Baby boomers make up almost half (47%) of the workforce today.
Young women are enrolling in college at a higher rate (70%) than young men (64%).
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
Future Work (cont.)
Small businesses employ about half of the nation's private sector workforce.
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
Future Work (cont.)
With more than 1600 corporate training institutions already established, “Corporate Universities” could surpass traditional universities, in number, by 2010.
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
75 Million Baby Boomers! (Born 1946 – 1965)
U.S. Population Projections
250,000,000
260,000,000
270,000,000
280,000,000
290,000,000
300,000,000
310,000,000
320,000,000
330,000,000
2001 2005 2010 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Population Projections
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Projected U.S. Population - Age
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
2001 2005 2010 2020
Mean
Median
Geographic Distribution Persons 65+ 52% live in nine states:
California 3.6 million Florida 2.8 million New York 2.4 million Texas 2.1 million Pennsylvania 1.9 million Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey each with over 1 million.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Geographic Distribution Persons 65+ (cont.)
Metropolitan areas 77.5%
Suburbs 50.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Regional Changes – 2025 Total Population
South and West will comprise majority of growth
Northeast 17.1% Midwest 20.7% West 26% South 36.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Projected U.S. Population by Ethnicity
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2010 2020
Caucasian
Black
Hispanic
Asian/PacificIslander
AmericanIndian
% Change from 2001
% Change Ethnic Groups to 2025 Caucasian – Slowest Growing, still largest
Hispanic – 2nd Fastest Growing, Southwest
Black – 2nd Slowest Growing, all regions
Asian – Fastest Growing, all regions
American Indian – 3rd fastest growing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The Pipeline Challenge
“America will face a social and economic crisis unless it succeeds
in promoting and taking advantage of racial and ethnic
diversity.”
Business – Higher Education Forum - “Investing in People: Developing All of America’s Talent on Campus and in the
Workplace.”
Employment Trends
1990-2000 = +17% 2000-2010 = +15%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Growth in Civilian Workforce:
Observations
Largest shift will be decrease of “prime-age” (25-54) workers in the labor force.
Over 60% of workers do not have children at home but care for elderly family members.
Shift from defined-benefit to defined- contribution pensions has unknown impact.
Various organizational responses to technology impact productivity.
Source: The Urban Institute
More Observations
During 1992-99 expansion, college-educated workers accounted for 90% of growth.
Globalization of production has weakened the position of U.S. workers.
Although 1992-99 expansion increased job opportunities, many less educated workers have not reentered the job market.
Source: The Urban Institute
More Observations (cont.)
In the next 20 years . . .
The civilian labor force will see a major change in age cohorts.
Men 16 and over will continue to decline in numbers and percentage.
Minorities and women will continue to increase dramatically in the civilian workforce.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Projected U.S. Workforce
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Occupations by Replacement Need
Created by Retirees 1998–2008
(in thousands)
Total, all employees 22,205
Secretaries ......................................................…. 519 Truck drivers, heavy ......................................….. 425Teachers, elementary school .........................….. 418Janitors and cleaners ..................................…….. 408Teachers, secondary school ..........................…….378Registered nurses ......................................……... 331Bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks …. 330Teachers, college and university .................….... 195
Source: Monthly Labor Review
Replacements Needed for Retirees (cont.)
Administrators, education and related fields ….. 178Farmers, except horticultural ........................….. 175Supervisors, construction occupations ..........….. 165Administrators and officials,................................ 143Real estate sales occupations .....................…….. 144Insurance sales occupations .......................…….. 135Industrial machinery repairers .......................….. 125Maids and housekeeping cleaners ...............…..... 122Private household cleaners and servants .....……. 112Physicians ....................................................…….. 108Financial managers .......................................….... 102Lawyers……………………………………………………….99
Source: Monthly Labor Review
Industry Employment 2000-2010 Service Sector – Continues to dominate
growth adding 20.5 million jobs (+19%). Manufacturing down by 3%. Health, Business, Human Services,
Engineering, Management and related services account for 1 of every 2 non-farm jobs.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupational Employment 2000-2010
Professional and related occupations will add 7% and 5.1%, respectively.
Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15%.
Office admin support will grow more slowly.
8-10 fastest growing occupations are computer related.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Computer Software Engineer +100% Computer Support Specialist + 97% Medical Assistants + 57% Soc. & Human Serv. Asst. + 54% Physician Asst. + 53% Home Health Aide + 47% Veterinary Asst. + 40% Dental Asst. + 37%
Fastest Growing Occupations, 2000–2010 (National)
Source: Monthly Labor Review
Fastest Growing Occupations,
New York (per year)
Computer Scientists +7.9% Computer Support Spec. +6.3% Paralegals +5.5% Medical Scientists +4.6% Post-sec. Health Teachers +4.4% Sheet Metal Duct Installers +4.4% Medical Asst. +4.0% Dental Asst. +3.6%
Source: NY Dept. of Labor
Fastest Growing Occupations, North Carolina (per year)
Computer Scientists +8.0% Desktop Publishing Spec. +7.0% Health Practitioners +6.7% Paralegals +6.5% Computer Support Spec. +6.4% Respiratory Therapists +5.8% Cardiology Techs. +5.7% Computer Science Teachers(post-sec.) +5.7%
Source: NC Employment Security Commission
Fastest Growing Occupations, Georgia (per year)
Computer Engineers +12.8 Demonstrators & Models +11.6% Human Service Workers +9.0% Home Health Aides +8.9% Offset Press Operators +7.2% Child Care Workers +6.4% Bakers +5.8% Private Detectives +5.4% Physical Therapists +5.1%
Source: NW Georgia Career Depot
Fastest Growing Occupations, Kentucky (per year)
Computer Scientists +13.9 Physical Therapy Asst. +10% Personal Home Care Aides +9.6% Computer Support Spec. +9.1% Physical Therapists +8.5% Occupational Therapists +8.2% Medical Asst. +7.8% Paralegals +7.2%
Source: Kentucky Dept. for Employment Services
Fastest Growing Occupations, Indiana (2000-2008)
Computer Engineers +100.2% Computer Support Spec. +73.8% Home Health Aides +64.7% Medical Asst. +61.5% Human Services Asst. +56.8% Ship Mates +52.9% Physician Asst. +48.1% Physical Therapy Asst. +46.4%
Source: Indiana Career & Postsecondary Advancement Center
Fastest Growing Occupations, Missouri (2000-2008)
Computer Scientists +82.1% Desktop Publishing Spec. +76.5% Computer Support Spec. +67.8% Paralegals +62.4% Health Practitioners +61.7% Computer Science Teachers +50.0% Rec/Leisure/ Fitness Teachers +47.1% Respiratory Therapists +44.1%
Source: Missouri Economic Research & Information Center
Fastest Growing Occupations, Texas (2000-2010)
Computer & Data Processing +55.5% Management & PR +41.3% Freight/Transportation Arrangement +41.1% Automobile Repair +39/7% Osteopathic Phys. Office Work +38.6% Individual & Family /Services +36.2% Health Office Occupations +35.9% Child Care Services +35.8 Residential Care +32.2%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Fastest Growing Occupations, Montana (per year)
Computer Support Spec. +83.6 Fitness Trainer +59.1% Home Care Aides +57% Medical Asst. +52.1% Human Service Asst. +51.3% Amusement & Rec. Attendants +47.0% Hotel, Motel Clerks +46.8% Tour Guides +41.1%
Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry
Fastest Growing Occupations, Oregon (2000-2008)
Computer Support Spec. + 114% Human Service Asst. + 78% Private Detectives + 62% Occupational Therapy Aides + 55% Desktop Publishers + 52% Physical Therapists + 48% Physical Therapy Asst. + 47% Child Care Workers + 42%
Source: OR Labor Market Information System
Fastest Growing Occupations, California (2000-2010)
Computer Specialists +106.8% Human Service Asst. + 68.7% Medical Asst. + 52.7% Teachers (Spec. Ed, Pre-School, Kindergarten) + 51.3% Dental Asst., & Hygienists + 50.0% Medical Records Tech. + 49.3% Speech Pathologists + 48.3% PR Managers + 47.7%
Source: CA Labor Market Information System
Highly Skilled and Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce
12.5%
14.1%15.6%
14.2%13.2% 12.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Professional specialties (skilled) Operators, laborers andfabricators (unskilled)
1988
1998
2008
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Workforce Skills
Median Years of Job Tenure
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Declining Job Tenure
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
Yea
rs
1996 vs 2000
The Workplace
Individual Rigid Company
Focused Non-
Responsive Insensitive to
Diversity
Coordinated Flexible Customer Focused Responsive Sensitive to
Diversity Other?_____
The 21st Century Worker
Skills Needed:
Academic (standard) Technical (standard) Social International/Intercultural
new
new
Implications for Workforce Education/Training
Labor shortage of skilled workers
Higher levels of education will be necessary to secure new, higher-paying jobs – 80% of jobs will require more post-secondary education
No easy answer whether supply of qualified workers will meet demand in key industry sectors
% of High School Graduates Attending College1979-97 and projected to 2010
58%54%
59.6%67%
75%71%
66%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Pe
rce
nt
Att
en
din
g
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business
Path to the American Dream
Projected Supply and Demand of Workers with some Postsecondary Education
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
1998 2008 2018 2028
Tho
usan
ds
Demand (Jobs) Supply (Workers)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau , U.S. Census and National Alliance of Business
Education Required
Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Postsecondary Education,
1995 and 2015 (in millions)
16
Millio
n
13.4 Million
2.6 Million80% Minority31% 35 and
older
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1995 2015
En
rollm
en
t in
millio
ns
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Richard A. Fry. Crossing the Great Divide. Educational Testing Services, 2000.
Tidal Wave II
Projected Postsecondary Enrollment Distribution
by Institution, 1975 to 2015
6.4%
35.5%
5.3%4.7%
58.1%56.5%
38.1%
55.8%
39.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Private university Other four-year Two-year
197519972015
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business
National Perspective
Associate Degree Desired% Growth in Occupations (1998 to 2008)
by Type* of Training Required
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Do
cto
ral
deg
ree
Mas
ter'
sd
egre
e
Bac
hel
or'
sd
egre
e
Ass
oci
ate
deg
ree
Po
stse
con
dar
yv
oca
tion
altr
ain
ing
Lo
ng
-ter
m o
n-
the-
job
tra
inin
g
Sh
ort
-ter
m o
n-
the-
job
tra
inin
g
* Does not include all types of training
Students’ Readiness for College
Among families with incomes greater than $75,000 per year, < 60% of HS graduates were highly qualified for admission to 4-yr colleges.
For families under $25,000 per year, 47% were not even minimally qualified.
63% of community college students take at least one remedial course.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Education
Preparing a 21st Century Workforce : Everyone’s Involved
Providers:• K-16 (includes public and private 2 &
4 year colleges)• Private vocational schools,
consultants• Industry, businesses and labor unions
Need for continuous education and training as workplace demands change.
Fundamental Changes Training for new economy credentials
• Vendor provided credentials• Vendor driven curriculum • Rapid changes in job expertise
More than 300 discrete certifications Over 2.4 million IT certifications
awarded Most training providers outside
traditional higher education and on and on…
Opportunities for Community Colleges
Increasing Demand for skilled workers Shortage of prepared workers Job demand for post-secondary education Productivity based on skills Higher educational attainment Enrollment in post-secondary institutions
Decreasing job tenure
More Opportunities for Community Colleges Increasing
Education level of the workforce Enrollment in community colleges Diversity of community colleges Need for financial assistance
Anywhere & Anytime Learning: (flexible & responsive)
Competencies vs. completions Employer relationships Increasing government recognition.
Advocacy Issues
National• Elected policy makers• Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act• Perkins • Workforce Investment Act (WIA)• Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF)• Nursing Education• International Education• Others?
Advocacy Issues (cont.)
State• Elected policy makers• Effect of declining state economies on
budgets. Emphasize importance of education and
training in state economy. Emphasize the importance of affordable access. Emphasize role of workforce training in national
economy. Others?
…and More Advocacy Issues
Local/Regional• Pace of retirements/replacements• Small and medium size businesses• Urban, suburbs, rural uniqueness
What is Our Board’s Game Plan?
We understand the facts!
We understand the trends!
What is Our Board’s Game Plan?
Question:
How does this Board provide
leadership for AACC regarding key educational
and workforce training-related issues?
Sources of Demographic and Occupational DataAARP - http://www.aarp.org/ America’s Career InfoNet - http://www.acinet.org/
acinet/default.asp?soccode=&stfips= America’s Job Bank - dni.us - http://www.ajb. / Bureau of Labor Statistics - http://www.bls.gov/ Hudson Institute - http://www.hudson.org/
Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.)
Monthly Labor Review - http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm
National Alliance of Business - http://www.nab.com/ National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces
.ed.gov/ National Governors Association - http://www.nga.org/
National Institute on Aging - http://www.nia.nih.gov/
Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.)
State Employment Departments, Departments of Labor, & Labor Market Information Systems
Urban Institute - http://www.urban.org/ U.S. Administration on Aging - http://www.aoa.gov/ U.S. Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/ U.S. Department of Labor - http://www.dol.gov/
Thank You!
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor,
Dallas County Community College
District [email protected]