Community Adaptation to Flooding in a Changing Climate: Assessing Municipal Officials’ Actions, Decision-Making, and Barriers Gretchen Gary and Shorna Allred, PhD Human Dimensions Research Unit Department of Natural Resources
Community Adaptation to Flooding in a Changing Climate: Assessing Municipal Officials’ Actions, Decision-Making, and Barriers
Gretchen Gary and Shorna Allred, PhD Human Dimensions Research Unit Department of Natural Resources
Overview • Introduction
• Theoretical Framework • Research Questions
• Methods
• Results
• Educational Program Evaluations • Conclusions
Climate Change and Flooding FEMA – June 2013
• Areas in the US at risk for flooding will increase 40 – 45% by 2100
• 70% of the increased risk is attributed to climate change
• Could double the number of properties covered by FEMA (~5.5 - ~11 billion)
Climate Change and Flooding New York State • Rising temperature, changes in precipitation
frequency & intensity, higher sea level (Rosenzwieg et al. 2011)
• Local differences in climate change (Rosenzwieg et al. 2011)
• Land-use patterns affect flooding in NY (Kneupfer and Montz 2008)
Orange
Ulster
Rockland
Putnam
Albany Schoharie
Greene
The Hudson Valley & the Hudson River Estuary
Recent Extreme Events in the Hudson Valley • August 2011
Hurricane Irene • September 2011
Tropical Storm Lee • October 2012
Hurricane Sandy
Photo: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab
Hurricane Irene 2011
Phoenicia, NY Photo: Ivan LaJara
Rifton, NY Photo: Imgur
Middleburgh Valley Schoharie County Daily Gazette, August 29, 2011
Tropical Storm Lee Just days after Irene
New Paltz, NY Photo: Katy Silberger/Foter.com/CC BY-NC-SA
Highland, NY Photo: Steve Borland/Times Herald-Record
Hurricane Sandy 2012
Piermont, NY Photo: John Meore/for the Journal News
Sources: CBS News, NBC News, Staten Island Advance, Transportation Nation; via Huffington Post
Importance of Local Government • Municipalities control local
energy use, infrastructure, planning, and land use decisions.
• Important to understand
motivation for actions for & what actions are being taken
Understanding
Problem Detection: Recognize flood vulnerability
Vulnerability: Determine who/what is affected & how
Redefine Problem: After a flood, re-evaluate concerns & vulnerability
Develop Options: Examine current/past behaviors; gather information for future options
Assess Options: Develop a flood plan for adaptation, preparation, &response
Select Options: Determine how local flooding will be addressed
Planning
Implement Options: Implement selected actions
Monitor: Monitor effectiveness of actions & environmental effects
Evaluate: Evaluate plan & implementation
Managing
Adapted from Moser and Ekstrom 2010
Common Barriers to Municipal Officials Understanding, Planning, and Managing for Flooding As Identified in the Literature
Phase of Adaptive Cycle Barrier
Understanding Disconnect among decision makers and local observations and experiences (local knowledge)1,4,5,6,7
Understanding & Planning Lack of knowledge, access to information, and consensus regarding flood issues and options1,2,3
Understanding & Planning Flood planning is low priority1,7, 12
Planning Lack of responsibility for, or control of, floods and planning1,4, 5, 8, 9, 10
Planning & Managing Limited funding or other resources1,2, 5, 10, 11
Planning & Managing Political agenda or legal issues do not allow for flood adaptation1,8, 14
Managing Lack of planning leading to reactionary responses (insufficient structural solutions, hasty recoveries)3, 4, 5, 9
1Moser and Eckstrom 2010, 2Mullen et al. 2012, 3Storbjörk 2007, 4Glaas et al 2010, 5Naess et al. 2005, 6Schelfaut et al. 2011, 7Tryhorn and DeGaetano 2011. 8Betsill 2001, 9Blomquist and Schlager 2005, 10Wilson 2006, 11Wheeler 2008, 12Andrew 2012, 13Stevens et al. 2008, 14Doolittle 2003
Research Questions 1. What barriers do local municipal officials encounter or
perceive in the “understanding, planning, and managing” phases of adaptation to flooding?
2. At what stage in the process are municipal officials, and during what phase(s) do they encounter the most barriers?
3. Which barriers to flood adaptation have municipal officials overcome and what actions are being taken?
4. What do municipal officials still need in order to address flooding?
Methods 1. CCE educators were trained in interview
methods & IRB protocol and helped to conduct in-depth interviews (n = 36)
2. 10 counties in Hudson Valley, NY watersheds
3. Municipal officials with responsibility for flooding in the community
4. Interviews conducted in person (n=33) or by phone (n=3), digitally recorded, & transcribed
5. Analyzed using thematic coding in Atlas.ti
Interview Participants & Study Area
Position # of Interviews
Town Supervisor 20 Highway officials 7 County officials 5 Mayor 2 Other position 3 TOTAL 37
Orange
Ulster
Rockland
Putnam
Albany Schoharie
Greene
n=1 n=2 n=3
n=2
n=3
n=4
n=5
n=5
n=5
n=6
65% of participants had previous education or training related to flooding
Results 1. Observations of climate change 2. Flood adaptation process 3. Barriers to flood adaptation 4. Actions for flood adaptation 5. Needs
Results Municipal Officials Observations of Climate Change
Weather % officials observed change
Extreme events 76%
Local differences 24%
Precipitation 22%
Unsure 19%
No changes observed 8%
Temperature 8%
“I guess with the topography that we have here, with the weather pattern changing and getting more extreme, it’s kind of more of the same so these aren’t new, we’re…not seeing the type of events that would force us to change what we’re doing...” - Town Supervisor
Results Observations of Climate Change
“The weather changes, the pattern changes the last…10 years or so, obviously it’s getting more and more severe almost every year and that’s not a political statement, it’s a reality.” - Town Supervisor
“It’s definitely extreme weather. It has created some circumstances.” - Town Supervisor
Results Flood adaptation process
53% 42%
5%
Understanding Planning Managing
54%
44%
2%
Stage of Adaptation Process Barriers per Adaptation Stage
Results Barriers to taking action
3% 3%
11% 14%
24% 30%
46% 46%
51% 59%
62% 68%
81% 86%
None perceived
Topography
Lack planning
Lack technical support
Lack time
Lack communication
Lack personnel
Attitudes of public
Lack local support
Limited resources
Lack knowledge
Lack control
Gov't regs & processes
Lack money
% of municipal officials that identified the barrier
Bar
riers
Results Barrier: Lack of money
“Money. It all boils down to economics. We know what we should do. We don’t know that we can do it. Sometimes one has to rely on a band-aid of sorts.” – Highway Superintendent
Results Barrier: State & Federal Government regulations & processes
“Most of the stuff [for stream management] you need a permit and the process of getting a permit is, you know, we’re going to have 10 storms before we get one permit” – Town Supervisor
Results Barrier: Perceived lack of control
“A lot of the damage was so devastating at the last one some of the residents in frustration just wanted to blame us. We didn’t do enough, we didn’t help them and the reality is, I don’t know what I can do for you in a tidal Hudson River event and I don’t think it’s fair that you publically lambast me for not helping you when there’s nothing I can do for you and post-storm, I don’t know what I can do for you.” – Mayor
Results Taking Action
Photo: Hans Pennink, Associated Press)
Rock vein used to protect a stream bank
Results Taking Action
19%
22%
24%
24%
27%
30%
30%
49%
51%
65%
73%
Public education
Structural defense
Maintain infrastructure
Stream management
Vulnerability study
Hazard mitigation
Improve infrastructure
Dredging
Flood planning
Communication
Emergency Planning
% of municipal officials who have utilized the action
Act
ion
Results Action: Emergency Planning & Response
• Emergency planning or response is the most utilized action related to flooding
• Communication & cooperation are essential tools for effective emergency response
• Necessary for immediate public safety • Those who had emergency plans more likely
express the desire for flood planning and monitoring efforts
“Oh the town has an extensive emergency preparedness system in place with our emergency management officer and the police department coordinating pre-storm preparations in some of these areas. Our emergency operations center will be activated in many instances prior to severe storm forecasts and then mobilizes our highway department, our recreation and parks department, all available staff, my department, the supervisors, the controllers and purchasing departments that coordinate preparations and reactiveness to various storm or flooding events.” - Deputy Director, Dept. of Environmental Control
Results Action: Emergency Planning & Response
Results Action: Communication & Cooperation
• Necessary for implementing emergency flood response
• Stronger efforts for flood planning or zoning through professional exchanges and community involvement
• Allows for informal, community-wide, monitoring of streams and storm damage
“Well we communicate. You know, we communicate with other supervisors and mayors... We coordinate with each of [our 3] villages. I also communicate with neighboring supervisors and we exchange ideas and things that we’re doing. Sort of in an informal manner outside of… [the] formal process of dealing with those issues.” – Town Supervisor
Results Action: Communication & Cooperation
Results Action: Flood Planning & Zoning • Effective planning takes the effort of community-
wide cooperation • Flood planning occurs when municipal officials
have concerns related to lack of planning, infrastructure damage, private property vulnerability, and runoff
• Understanding the weather is changing drives some officials to initiate flood planning
Part of our zoning allows wetlands to be considered as part of the open space. And always people react to that to say why are we, you can’t do anything with wetlands but the point is, it gives them added protection and they act as what they were intended to be, which is an aquifer recharge and a storm water holding entity. So our zoning actually, I think, helps mitigate some of it. – Town Supervisor
Results Action: Flood Planning & Zoning
Results Action: Vulnerability Assessment
No 73%
Yes 27%
“You want to see it [flooding] when it’s happening to find out what the reason is. The other thing we do is take a lot of pictures so I do a project down the road I have a file of pictures before… so we know what to do as an historical perspective.” – County Official
Results Future Options & Alternatives
11%
16%
16%
19%
22%
22%
24%
30%
32%
49%
62%
89%
Dredging
Hazard mitigation
Stream monitoring
Structural defenses
Emergency planning
Vulnerability assessment
Public education
Maintain infrastructure
Communication
Stream management
Flood planning
Improve infrastructure
% of officials who identified the option
Opt
ions
/ Alte
rnat
ives
Results What might facilitate action
8%
8%
8%
11%
11%
11%
14%
17%
22%
28%
33%
Money
Local knowledge
Flood planning resources
Communication resources
None perceived
Understand floods & streams
Technical assistance
Help navigating gov't policies
Assistance to community
Partnerships or cooperation
Info on local climate & floods
Nee
ds
% of officials who identified the need
Educational Program Evaluation • 2 workshops for highway personnel (n=23, n=27) • Focus on proper post flood stream intervention
Toe wood structure under construction to protect eroding stream bank.
Channel dimensions restored with floodplain access.
Channelized stream with gravel berms.
Stream before (L) and after (R) channel straightening
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Greene County Dutchess County
Perc
ent C
orre
ct
Workshop
Pre test Post test
F = 0.265 p = 0.01
F = 0.804 p = 0.01
Greene County Disagree Neutral Agree
My municipality is well prepared for floods. 40% 52% 8% I am aware of green infrastructure techniques in my municipality. 29% 38% 34%
Most streams with flood damage require human intervention. 36% 16% 48%
Dutchess County Disagree Neutral Agree
My municipality is well prepared for floods. 28% 20% 40% I am aware of green infrastructure techniques in my municipality. 25% 25% 42% Most streams with flood damage require human intervention. 56% 8% 20%
Post-workshop Evaluation Questions
How useful was the content of this training to you?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Greene County
Dutchess County
I plan to implement the stream management techniques recommended in this workshop
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Greene County
Dutchess County
% “Very Useful” % “Agree” or “Strongly Agree”
Post-workshop Evaluation Questions
Future Needs Assessment Riparian Landowners • Survey to be mailed to a random sample of
riparian landowners in fall 2013
• Collect information on the current, past, and expected stream management/land use behaviors
• Information collected will inform future landowner education
Summary
• Climate change will alter flood patterns
• Flood adaptation includes understanding, planning, & managing
• Most municipal officials are in the understanding phase
• Common barriers are government policies and regulations and lack of money, knowledge, or control of the situation
• Officials take some actions to address flooding
• Officials need information on local effects & forming/sustaining partnerships
• Educational programs effectively increase knowledge
Conclusions • Local governments are first responders for
flooding in small communities
• Municipalities in the Hudson Valley are not well prepared for floods in the changing climate
• Municipal officials recognize planning as an important action to take but face many barriers
• Partnerships and collaboration are important tools for effective flood planning and response
Conclusions • Municipal officials need to understand local
climate effects, proper post-flood stream response, green infrastructure, and how to navigate available resources
• Workshops are effective tools and can help
municipal official push past the barriers in the understanding phase
Next Steps • Design and utilize resources for modeling
local climate
• Facilitate partnerships among municipalities
• Continue educational programs for municipal officials and the public
Acknowledgements
• NYSDEC Hudson River Estuary Program • Interview and evaluation participants • Cornell Cooperative Extension Educators • The Project Team
Contact Information Gretchen Gary [email protected] Shorna Allred, PhD [email protected]