Communism’s Shadow: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Political Attitudes Grigore Pop-Eleches Princeton University [email protected]& Joshua A. Tucker New York University [email protected]Twitter: @j a tucker Fullbright Ukraine May 8, 2017 Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
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Communism’s Shadow: Historical Legacies and Contemporary PoliticalAttitudes
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
The Book!
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Outline of Remarks
Background on overall project
Theoretical framework
Methodological approach
Results from one chapter
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics
Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa
Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter
However, literature characterized by:
Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters
Mainly single country “just so” stories
Comparative work only within region
Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics
Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa
Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter
However, literature characterized by:
Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters
Mainly single country “just so” stories
Comparative work only within region
Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics
Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa
Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter
However, literature characterized by:
Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters
Mainly single country “just so” stories
Comparative work only within region
Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics
Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa
Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter
However, literature characterized by:
Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters
Mainly single country “just so” stories
Comparative work only within region
Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics
Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa
Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter
However, literature characterized by:
Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters
Mainly single country “just so” stories
Comparative work only within region
Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics
Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa
Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter
However, literature characterized by:
Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters
Mainly single country “just so” stories
Comparative work only within region
Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Project Motivation II: Stylized Facts
Systematic Variance in Political and Economic Attitudes between Post-CommunistCitizens and Non-Post-Communist Citizens
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Goals of the Book Manuscript
1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist
2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism
3 To evaluate which legacies are most important
4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Goals of the Book Manuscript
1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist
2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism
3 To evaluate which legacies are most important
4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Goals of the Book Manuscript
1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist
2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism
3 To evaluate which legacies are most important
4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Goals of the Book Manuscript
1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist
2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism
3 To evaluate which legacies are most important
4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Chapters of Book Manuscript
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Chapters of Book Manuscript
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Theoretical Explanations for Post-Communist Divergence: GeneralArgument
Divergence could be due to living in a post communist country.
Divergence could be due to living through communism.
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country
Demographic Factors
Economic Factors
Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)
All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country
Demographic Factors
Economic Factors
Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)
All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country
Demographic Factors
Economic Factors
Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)
All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country
Demographic Factors
Economic Factors
Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)
All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies
Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?
Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism
Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism
Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)
Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)
Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)
Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism
To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies
Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?
Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism
Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism
Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)
Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)
Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)
Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism
To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies
Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?
Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism
Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism
Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)
Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)
Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)
Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism
To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies
Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?
Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism
Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism
Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)
Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)
Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)
Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism
To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization
Why might we expect this to be a possibility?
Political science literature on “political socialization”
Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values
This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools
Socialization varies across sub-sections of population
Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life
Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization
Why might we expect this to be a possibility?
Political science literature on “political socialization”
Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values
This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools
Socialization varies across sub-sections of population
Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life
Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization
Why might we expect this to be a possibility?
Political science literature on “political socialization”
Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values
This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools
Socialization varies across sub-sections of population
Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life
Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization
Why might we expect this to be a possibility?
Political science literature on “political socialization”
Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values
This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools
Socialization varies across sub-sections of population
Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life
Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Communism in Theory and in Practice
Communism in Theory
Political: Rule by the proletariat
Economic: State (not market) run economies
Social welfare guaranteed by the state
Social equality
Communism in Practice
Political: Rule by the communist party
Economic: State run economy, but varying degrees of market-based activity by countryand period
Real social welfare benefits, although some “more equal” than others
Record on women’s rights and minority rights mixed
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Communism in Theory and in Practice
Communism in Theory
Political: Rule by the proletariat
Economic: State (not market) run economies
Social welfare guaranteed by the state
Social equality
Communism in Practice
Political: Rule by the communist party
Economic: State run economy, but varying degrees of market-based activity by countryand period
Real social welfare benefits, although some “more equal” than others
Record on women’s rights and minority rights mixed
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
A Living Through Model
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Variables in a Living Through Communism Model
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Conceptually
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)
Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis
1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable
4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable
5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years
Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis
1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure
2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare
Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare
Data:
World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators
Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)
Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices
Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare
Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare
Data:
World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators
Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)
Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices
Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare
Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare
Data:
World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators
Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)
Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices
Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare
Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare
Data:
World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators
Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)
Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices
Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Living a Post-Communist Country Control Variable in Main (WVS) Models
Pre-communist variables: Urbanization in the 1920s; Landlocked; Distance fromequator; Distance from Greenwich; British colony; French colony; Spanish colony;German empire; Habsburg empire; Russian empire; Ottoman empire; OtherEuropean colony; Mean elevation; Log GDP/Capita 1914; Pre-WWI regime;Non-independent pre-WWI; Muslim majority country; Christian majority country
End of Communism Variables: Urbanization 1989; Primary school enrolment; GDPper energy unit; Industry as % of GDP; Literacy 1989; Log GDP/capita 1989; ethnicfractionalization
Contemporaneous Demographics: Post-secondary education; Secondary education;Household income; Town resident; City resident; Large city resident; Sex; Age;Religious attendance; Atheist
Contemporaneous Economic Conditions: GDP change; Unemployment; Loginflation; GDP as % of 1989 GDP; Income inequality
Contemporaneous Political Institutions and Outcomes: Corruption; SocialSpending/GDP; Democracy (Freedom House); Log age of democracy; ElectoralRules(PR, Mixed, Majoritarian); Governing System (Pres, Parl, Mixed)
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Analysis: Country-Level Support for State Provided Social Welfare
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Analysis: Living in a Post-Communist Country and Support for StateProvided Social Welfare
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Analysis: Years of Exposure and Support for State Provided Social Welfare
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Analysis: Exposure and Welfare State Support: Country Moderators
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Analysis: Exposure and Welfare State Support: Individual Moderators
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Analysis: Summary of Interactive Effects
Catholics and Muslims have more resistance
No real effect for church (mosque) attendence
No effect for education
Larger socialization effects among urban residents
No effect on gender
Country level: stronger where communism imposed
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017
Analysis: Summary of Interactive Effects
Catholics and Muslims have more resistance
No real effect for church (mosque) attendence
No effect for education
Larger socialization effects among urban residents
No effect on gender
Country level: stronger where communism imposed
Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017