Communicating the WEATHER Elizabeth Krajewski Leader, Aviation Forecast Operation The Weather Company, An IBM Business
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Communicating theWEATHER
Elizabeth KrajewskiLeader, Aviation Forecast OperationThe Weather Company, An IBM Business
AGENDA
• Overview of Our Operation
• Aviation Forecast Paradigm
• Decision Support Services
• Role of Collaboration
• A Look to the Future
Our Value Proposition
Transforming Precise Weather into Better
Outcomes
DELIVER
precise
information
TRANSFORM
into insights
IMPROVE
outcomes
OPTIMIZE
decisions
OUR FORECASTING TEAM
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
• Pattern Recognition
• Weather Models
• Deep Thunder
• Observational Data (IoT)
• Understanding Aviation
Impacts
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
FORECASTING THE WEATHER
Models 162 Forecast
ModelsA Single Forecast Model Doesn’t Produce The Best
Results; A Combination of 162 Does
IMPROVEDACCURACY
The Weather Company’s
Aviation Paradigm
FoD
Deep Thunder
162 Models
Radar
Post
Processors
Aviation
Products
TWC Aviation
Forecasting
Operations
Other Aviation Weather Data
• Underpinned with our aviation
tuned weather model
• Leverage machine learning from
our FOD system
• Monitor and automate
forecasts for TAF and Enroute
Hazards
• Human forecasters remain “in
the loop”
• Embedded forecasters provide
risk and outcome guidance to
airlines.
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
Deep Understanding
of Aviation Impacts!
RISK OUTLOOK
5 Day Outlook for HUB Cities
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
COMPRESSION / LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
It’s not just about the forecast
Confidence in the forecast is different
for each weather event. Understanding forecast confidence can improve
decision making.
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
COMMUNICATING CONFIDENCE
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
Bring the advantage of big data straight to the forecast
The amount of aviation data available today is staggering. Use big data
analytics to predict airport operations
up to 12 hours out. Today provide Airport Runway Configuration,
Congestion, and Taxi Time Prediction.
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
HOW WE COLLABORATE
• Airlines– Airline ATC– Management– Dispatchers– Airport Operations
• Other Stakeholders– NWS Chat– Share forecasts – PERTI Telcons– Through Airline
Goal is to create a common situational awareness
Weather
Service FAA
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
BENEFITS OF COLLABORATION
• Two heads are better than one
• PERTI Briefing puts all stakeholders on the same page
• Allows airline to advocate for what they want
– arrival/departure rates
– TFMIs
• FAA understands/expects these requests based on the forecast
• Impacts to weather are understood along with confidence, plans can be made
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
FUTURE…
• Probabilistic Forecast Platform provides objective confidence
• How likely an outcome across specific thresholds of importance
• Provides a way to combine this with other information
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
PFP - Confidence on the Forecast Timing and Magnitude
Current Forecast With Probabilistic Weather Forecast
VFRIFR
High confidence
for airport being
under IFR
Low confidence
for airport being
under IFR
VFRIFR
VFRIFR
©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential
Probability Forecasts
Airport Delay Model
Optimized Fuel Loading
Model
Ceiling, Vis, TRW and
Wind Probs
Flight Time Probabilities
Reduced Fuel
Costs!
Example:
Probability Forecasting
System
Analytical Outcome
Model
Optimal Decision
ModelForecasted
Probabilities
Business Outcome
Probabilities
Better
Decisions!
Paradigm:
©2017 The Weather Company Aviation Conference Confidential
Non-Weather Data Business Information
Airport Opers;Flight Sched.
Airport Opers;Delay Costs
HOW PROBABILITY FORECASTS IMPROVE DECISIONS
CONCLUSIONS
• Collaboration provides common situational awareness for better planning in the face of weather events.
• Confidence improves decision makingaround weather.
• Communication is a two-way street, need to provide education to meteorologists on specific limitations.
• Science is moving toward providing forecast confidence and predicting direct impacts.
MERCI!
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