CommsDay Melbourne Congress 2016: FutureSumo's Skeeve Stevens

THE NOW & NEAR FUTURE

COMMSDAY CONGRESS – MELBOURNE 2016

Skeeve StevensFuturist

Future SumoNetwork Architect eintellego Networks

of DC, WHOLESALE& ISP/TELCO IN AU

COMMSDAY CONGRESS MELBOURNE 2016

• FutureSumo – Futurists – Intersection of Tech + People• Work with SME, Corporates and Governments• What, When, Where, How, Why and sometimes Who• Product Validation - What will and wont stick• Many Industries, Markets & Countries

WHO WE ARE / OUR PERPECTIVE

FUTURE/NOW OF DC, WHOLESALE, ISP & TELCO

• eintellego Networks – Network Architects• ISP Networks, and Enterprises (with a new or SP Style), sometimes Gov.• Built 350+ ISPs• Creative Solutions (Often driven by low budgets in the past)• Architect of AXONVX, Transgrids new Telco network, SHB++, Reckon• Created ElasticISP & ElasticEnterprise


• Technology is rapidly changing everywhere and faster than ever before and it’s going to affect DCs, Wholesale Providers, ISPs and Telcos significantly

• Are you ready?

WHY THIS TALK?



• Connectivity• Content• Cloudification• Networking Speeds• Open Networking + Whitebox Pricing – More coming• Automation/Orchestration (SD – meh..)• Consumer Technology Adoption

• VR/AR, IoT (many forms), OTT• Speed to market• Hyper-Adoption

THE PERFECT STORM (2016-2018)



• Connectivity• The Internet/Carriers – Better, faster• Cloud Providers – only a VxC away• Ecosystems of services – not just Cloud• Elastic Fabrics

• Choice, Price, Terms• Little to no Contracts or Terms – opportunistic purchasing

• On-Demand and orchestratable options

REASONS FOR CHANGE



• Content• Content is and will be king for a long while• Fast access to that content and data will be critical• Latency• 8K Video – SVOD isn’t done by far• VR/AR/MR Coming - hard• Wearables• IoT will be massive



• Cloudification• Cloudification of the office – Hosted/Cloud Desktop

revolution is late, but arriving as the workers change the way they work – especially the new iGens

• Enterprise is becoming the ‘Cloudaprise’ – don’t underestimate how far this will go• Teleworking, Flexible Working, Cloud Resources (Local

and Remote)• The big wave is yet to hit… soon?



• Elastic Revolution• Elastic Compute/Storage/etc, Flexible Licensing, Freemium

(awesome) Apps, Cloud Apps with no OS, specialised functions going cloud (AWS is king here)

• Elastic Fabrics• Open: Megaport, Intellipath• Closed: PEN, Equinix Cloud Exchange• More coming – local and regional



OPEN EVERYTHINGCOMPUTE &

NETWORKING


• 10GbE port explosion• Lots of low-end switches about to hit the market

• New 2.5/5GbE & 25/50GbE standards• 40GbE common, 100GbE is now here and cheap• Multi-rate ports, 200/400GbE on its way• Cat 8 - 25/40GBASE-T coming (IEEE 802.3bq)• Open Networking - Commodity switching• Disaggregation of OS/Hardware, Price, Density• 64K so far in 2016 in US (Cisco 15k, Intel 12k, Dell 10k)• White

WHATS HAPPENING?



Examples• Mellanox SN2100 (half width) – 16 x Multi-rate ports in half wi

dth chassis - 16 x 100GbE – breakout to 64 x 10/25GbE

• Dell Z9100-ON. 32 x Multi-Rate ports – 10/25/40/50/100G-6.4TB TP NB - 128 x 10/25Gbe per 1RU

• HP Altoline, EdgeCore, Juniper and others

EXTREME SPEED, EXTREME DENSITY



DATACENTRES


• Some say Datacentres are dying• Small Enterprise DCs are (without much connectivity)

• Carrier/Telco DCs are (stand-alone) • No choice hurts. Same in suites inside other Neutral DCs

• Corporate ‘Computer Rooms’ are dying the fastest

• All are moving to the Cloud or a ‘real’ DC• Primary – the apps they use are going to the cloud (public, or hybrid)• Secondly – moving costs to match revenue (capex to opex)• Thirdly – the skills to manage in-house infrastructure are too expensive



• Big Corporate specific purpose DCs• Will become less cost effective in the next 3-5yrs• Can’t spin up as fast as they need – even with Private Cloud• Private/Hybrid ‘hosted’ cloud will become a safe option when Cloud

matures with specialised Zones. Trust will take time.

• Heavily Connected Neutral DCs (PoP DCs)

• Where the money is now• Carrier Neutral / PoP DCs are thriving• Neutral-ish (for now)• Will keep thriving if they adapt – but can they?



• Global Regional Demand is starting• Massive requirement for local (and regional) low-latency content• AU will become a regional hub for latency sensitive content• Regional DC’s are emerging, Micro-Regional will be next – content closer

• Apple investing US1b in a DC in Vietnam… Others already present.Going deeper into countries / regions

• Big players have been in Indo-china region recently• Asia Pacific being watched carefully by the content guys• Regional China/India on the radar, Africa/ME will be of interest in a

few years• The Smarter the DC - the better they will do – most are pretty dumb still

GROWTH IN DC’S WILL BE BIGGER THAN PREDICTED



• Most growth in areas that are not core expertise for DCs• Skills problems – Networking, IoT - new ways of doing everything• Classic ‘hard’ X-Connect revenue is at serious risk. Slow, expensive• Micro & Pop-Up DCs – disruption everywhere• DCs don’t move fast – wasn’t a problem, but it will be• DCs not mentality prepared for the new elastic world – or don’t want

to be – clinging to old revenue models• DCs don’t understand consumers – they didn’t need to in the past

• So they don’t see what’s coming

IT’S NOT ALL GOOD NEWS FOR DCs



WHOLESALE/ISP/TELCO


AUSTRALIA - A QUICK COMPARISON

• Our NBN is not competitive in speed or price

• Rollout is slow• South Korea had 100mb in 2005, now

500/1G/10G – 100%



• Choice is disappearing• Small ISPs are disappearing• ACCC is asleep at the wheel. Transactional. No big picture• Consolidation – are we finished yet?

• It’s a cycle – rise of the small ISPs• Big players vulnerable to disruption• Not a lot being offered other than Telco services• Innovation is stalled• Government is the big problem right now• Race to Zero• Value-add is no value at all

WHATS GOING ON IN WHOLESALE?



• Retail Focus• Love to hate• Mobile• Wholesale via AAPT• What’s next?

• Content

TPG Telecom• Traditionally wholesale (mostly)• Consumed lots of smaller wholesale providers• Amcom, then M2• Nextgen + North West Cable + Singapore Cable• Embraced consumer/business• Macquarie Telecom 16%• Has Dodo – what will they do with it?• Not really a Consumer mentality• Disruption risk – ala Telstra• Finally got Intercap• Finally one of the big 4*• What’s next?

VOCUS

• Dark• Now owns ISPs• Just bought BigAir• Exciting times ahead for our mate

SuperLoop



• NBN• HFC access – couple of million homes in Sept

• Going to be issues – Not many skills in HFC, No Kit• Faster speeds

• New Wholesale Providers – Layer 1• Wholesale NFV – multiple people launching• Carrier-Neutral Hosted Cores (like ElasticISP/ElasticEnterprise)• EF will hit hard when people figure it out - productisation• Other Layer 2 peering as automation skills are adopted• IoT – the BIG play• VR/AR - Not sure how SP world will play this out – PSVR in 9 days

WHATS COMING



ENTERPRISE


• Getting smarter• Building out themselves• Access to equipment at the right prices• Tech is getting easier in some respects• They aren’t going to need you soon• Your value-add will mean nothing to them• You made this happen

ENTERPRISE



• ElasticEnterprise• Follows on from our ElasticISP, but Simpler• Carrier Neutral Core• We’re launching ElasticEnterprise in November

• Few already on board• It’s more a conceptual product to disrupt• We’re not the only one doing it – and we’re helping others build it –

locally and overseas

ENTERPRISE



<RANT>


• NBN• Government needs to forgive the NBN debt• Or it will cripple our ability to compete globally• CVCs need to disappear or be negligible – Tail only• If it doesn’t happen – we will be in a trouble for a decade

• Innovation needs to a) happen b) be supported c) exported• The Government needs to get out of the way – we’d prefer if they helped• Cost reductions – vendors, new ways to build, new ways to operate• Customer Service – an after-thought. Your customers don’t like you• Data Retention. Stupid execution, but no excuse for the abuse of funding• More laws and pain is coming• Temperature is rising

Or... WE WILL be disrupted – as a country

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN



Are you asleep at the wheel?Are you a part of the problem or part of the soltu

ion? What would your customers say?


</RANT>

Futuresumo & eintellego Networks/in/skeeve

Thank YouSkeeve Stevens

COMMSDAY CONGRESSMELBOURNE 2016