How the UK and US are meeting enrolment challenges Common Pressures: Different Answers
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How the UK and US are meeting enrolment challenges
Common
Pressures: Different
Answers
Speakers
Tom Green
Director of Technology Solutions and
Managing Consultant
AACRAO
@TGreenConsults
Matthew Andrews
Academic Registrar, Oxford Brookes
University
Chair, AUA
@HE_MPA
Presentation Outline
Rising Tuition Rates
Access to Higher Education
Employability and Outcomes
Final Reflections
Rising Tuition Rates
American Story
Rapidly rising costs
Pace of increase exceeds family incomes
Shifts in enrollment from higher cost private
institutions to lower-cost public four-year and
then to even lower-cost public two-year
institutions with the exception of for-profit
enrollments, which increased in spite of
significant price points.
Rising Tuition Rates
American Story
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
73-74 78-79 83-84 88-89 93-94 98-99 03-04 08-09 13-14
Average Tuition and Fee and Room and Board Charges in 2013 Dollars, 1973-74 to 2013-14, Selected Years
Private Nonprofit Four-Year Public Four-Year Public Two-Year
Adapted from Trends in College Pricing 2013, The College Board
Rising Tuition Rates
American Story
$-
$10,000.00
$20,000.00
$30,000.00
$40,000.00
$50,000.00
$60,000.00
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U.S. Median Household income – inflation adjusted to 2012
Chart created from data in U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population
Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements
Rising Tuition Rates
American Story
Chart created from data in Digest of Educational Statistics 2012,
NCES, Table 223.
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
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25,000,000
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Enrollment by Institutional Type 1970 - 2011
Public four-year Public two-year Private non-profit Private For-profit
State
High
Figure 3
Public FTE Enrollment and Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1987 2012
erEducatio
nFFin
ance
FY20122
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Rising Tuition Rates
American Story
Source: State Higher Education Finance FY2012, SHEEO, 2012
Rising Tuition Rates
American Story
Source: Trends in College Pricing 2013, The College Board
TRENDS IN COLLEGE PRICING 2013 t rends .collegeboard .org
24 For deta iled data beh ind the graphs and addit ional in format ion , p lease vis it : t rends .collegeboard .org .
–Total state appropriations declined b y 19%,
from $88.7 billion in 20 07-08 (in 2012 dollars) to
$72.0 billion in 2012-13, while FTE enrollment in
public institutions increased by 11% over these
f ve years.
–The sharp declines in per student state
appropriations in recent years have been
accompanied by rapid increases in public four-year
college tuition and fees. In 2012-13, appropriations
fell less than in the preceding four years, and
tuition and fees rose less than in the preceding
three years.
–Similar combinations of declining per st udent
appropriations and large price increases occur red
in the early 1990s and the early 2000s.
–Federal funds from the American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act supplemented st ate
funds over three f scal years, increasing st ate
appropriations (in 2012 dollars) by $2.4 billion in
2008-09, $4.8 billion in 2009-10, and $3.0 billion
in 2010-11.
–Total FTE enrollment in public t wo-year and
four-year colleges and universities grew by 15%
from 1982-83 to 1992-93 and by another 15%
from 1992-93 to 2002-03. Estimated enrollment
growth was 19% over the most recent decade.
ALSO IMPORTANT:
– From fall 2001 to fall 2011, total FTE enrollment in
public institutions in the United St ates increased by
27%. Enrollment growth ranged from 11% in Louisiana
and 12% in Illinois to 48% in Florida and in Georgia.
(Figure 25)
–Between 2007-08 and 2012-13, total inf ation-adjusted
state appropriations for higher education increased
by 20% in Wyoming and 23% in North Dakota.
Appropriations declined by 42% in New Hampshire
and Arizona and by more than 20% in 16 additional
states. (Illinois St ate University, Grapevine data, Table 1;
calculations by the authors)
FIGURE 14AAnnual Percentage Change in State Appropriations for Higher Education per
Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Student and Percentage Change in Inf ation-Adjusted
Tuition and Fees at Public Four-Year Institutions, 1982-83 to 2012-13
FIGURE 14BState Appropriations for Higher Education: Total Appropriations in 2012 Dollars
(in Billions), Appropriations per Public FTE Student in 2012 Dollars (in Thousands),
and Public FTE Enrollment (in Millions), 1982-83 to 2012-13
NOTE: Enrollment f gures are fall FTE enrollments for public two-year and four-year institutions. Enrollment for fall 2012 was estimated based on preliminary IPEDS numbers. Appropriations reported here are for institutional operating expenses, not for capital expenditures. F unding includes both tax revenues and other state funds allocated to higher education.
SOURCES: The College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; Illinois State University, Grapevine reports; NCES, Digest of Education Statistics 20 12, Table 253; NCES, IPEDS preliminary fall 2012 enrollment data; calculations by the author s.
The 0% line corresponds to changes in appropriations per FTE student that
compensate only for the overall rate of inf ation in consumer prices. Negative
percentage changes indicate declines in inf ation-adjusted appropriations per
FTE student. The blue dotted line represents the percentage change that would
have occurred if federal stimulus funds had not been appropriated in 20 08-09
through 2010-11.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
12-1306-0700-0194-9588-89 09-1003-0497-9891-9285-8682-83
Perc
enta
ge C
hange
Academic Year
Excluding Federal Stimulus Funds
Public Four-YearTuition and Fees
Appropriations per Public FTE Student
12-1306-07 09-1000-0194-9588-89 03-0497-9891-9285-8682-83
Total Appropriations (Billions)
Public FTE Enrollment (Millions)
Excluding Federal Stimulus Funds
$0
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$60
$80
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($)0
($)2
($)4
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($)10
$120 ($)12 Public
FTE E
nro
llment (in
Millio
ns)
and A
ppro
pria
tions p
er FT
E
(in T
housa
nds o
f 2012 Dolla
rs)To
tal A
ppro
pri
ati
ons
(in B
illi
ons
of 20
12 D
ollars
)
Academic Year
Appropriations per FTE (Thousands)
Inst itut ional Revenues — Public Appropriat ions
In 2012-13, public colleges and univers it ies received an average of $6,646 per fu ll-t ime
equivalent (FTE) s tudent in s ta te funding — 27% less than the $9,111 (in 2012 dollars)
per FTE s tudent they received f ve years earlie r.
Rising Tuition Rates
UK Story
Students started to pay up-front tuition fees in
1998/9, initially of £1,000 per year.
Variable tuition fees up to £3,000 introduced for
2006/7.
Students entering in 2012/13 started to pay
tuition fees of up to £9,000.
Rising Tuition Rates
Constraints
Recruitment constrained by Government - but student
number cap to be removed 2015/16.
Bursaries and scholarships are not part of the competitive
environment; they do not make...
● students any more likely to apply to higher education
● students apply to institutions they didn’t already intend
to apply to
● applicants pick an offer from one institution over another
● students more likely to stay in higher education and
complete their degree
Response from American
institutions
1970’s – grant aid based upon income, rapid
increase in access for low-income and under-
represented students; few loan programs
available to students.
1980’s – proliferation of “need” variables and
expansion of aid to middle-income students
through loan programs.
Response from American
institutions
1990’s – institutional aid leveraging and
increases in institutional unfunded aid;
extension of credit through parent loans,
unsubsidized loans; increases in state
support per FTE for public HE.
2000’s – expansion of loan program limits at
all levels; institutional aid leveraging in public
institutions; increasing levels of institutional
aid and unfunded discounts.
Response from American
institutions
2010’s (so far) – loan default prevention,
sharpened focus on outcomes, constraint of
tuition growth by governing bodies (i.e., state
coordinating boards or systems)
Other responses?
Response from UK institutions
Heightened attention
to the student
experience and
competition
Ensuring access
Student Charter
Investment in the student
experience
Access to Higher Education
American Story
Multiple commissions and reports on access
to higher education, starting after WWII and
through the JFK administration in 1962.
Civil Rights Act of 1963 was paired with the
Higher Education Act of 1964 to provide
financial incentives to institutions:
• Access to federal funding based upon
compliance with non-discrimination
Access to Higher Education
American Story
Federal financial aid programs provide low-
income access to higher education starting in
1972:
• Basic Education Opportunity Grant
• Supplemental Education Opportunity Grant
• State grant programs• Required to access federal funding
Access to Higher Education
American Story
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60.0
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Recent HS Completers Enrolled in Higher Education by Race 1972 - 2011
White Black Hispanic
Chart created from data in Digest of Educational Statistics 2012,
NCES, Table 235.
Historical elitism in English HE
Universal Declaration of Human
Rights, 1948, Article 26 (1)
“Everyone has the right to
education … higher education
shall be equally accessible to all
on the basis of merit.”
Robbins “Courses of higher
education should be available for
all those who are qualified by
ability and attainment to pursue
them and who wish to do so.”
1963
Access to Higher Education:
UK Story
Widening Participation
State v Private Schools
Laura Spence: a high achieving pupil at
Monkseaton Community High School
In 1999 she applied to read medicine at
Oxford University but rejected
Gordon Brown (then Chancellor, later Prime
Minister) accused Oxford of elitism: an
‘absolute scandal’
Laura won a scholarship to Harvard and
graduated in 2004, and in Medicine in
2008 from Wolfson College, Cambridge
School background
remains a current issue
Schwartz Report 2004
An independent review which considered
admissions to higher education, led by
Stephen Schwartz then VC of Brunel
University (now Macquarie University,
Sydney).
“It is not the task of higher education
admissions to compensate for educational
or social disadvantage.”
Comparisons: Degree of
Success from the Sutton Trust (2011)
Private ProgressionAll universities
76%
‘Top 30’
48%
State ProgressionAll universities
86% (selective)
69% (non-selective)
‘Top 30’
48% (selective)
18% (non-selective)
4 schools (Westminster, Eton, St Pauls, St Pauls Girls School and Hills
Road Sixth Form College) produced 946 Oxford and Cambridge
entrants from 2007-09 whilst 2,000 schools and colleges sent only 927
pupils.
Achievement at A Level by School Type
Access to Higher Education
American Response
Federal TRIO programs:
• Improving the access pipeline (Upward
Bound)
• Improving student support
State support programs:
• EOP (recruitment and support)
Access to Higher Education
American Response
Challenges to the role of race in admissions:
• Series of lawsuits (Hopwood, Bakke,
Grutter, etc.) that challenged the use of
race in admission decision and changed the
practices of many/most institutions in
weighting historically under-represented
group status in admissions decisions.
• State legislative actions to remove race
from consideration in admissions (CA Prop
209, Michigan Prop 2).
Access to Higher Education
American Response
Change to admission and scholarship
practices:
• Recruitment at secondary
schools/community colleges with high
enrollments of under-represented students.
• Holistic admission policies.
• Focus on financial need in aid:• Disproportionate levels of under-represented
students in low-SES groups.
Access to Higher Education
UK Response
Government interest does not result in a
consistent policy framework
Initiatives come-and-go as Government funding
moves from one project to the next, e.g.
Aimhigher which existed from 2004 to 2011
Widening Participation
Activities
Summer Schools
Mentoring
Compact Schemes
Year 10 Summer School at Durham University
Contextual Data
Contextual data in the admissions process• for widening participation - to target aspiration raising and fair
access activities
• to establish who to interview
• to inform a decision on an application
• to identify applicants who may need additional support or
advice during the application process, transition or when
registered as a student
• to help assess applicants eligible for financial support for
statistical and qualitative monitoring and reporting purposes
Trends in young participation in
higher education (2010)
Young participation has increased from 30% in the mid-1990s to 36% at the
end of the 2000s, making young people over +20% more likely to go on to
higher education than in the mid-1990s.
The proportion of young people living in the most disadvantaged areas who
enter higher education has increased by around +30% over the past five
years, and by +50% over the past 15 years.
The increases in the young participation rate for those living in the most
disadvantaged areas have been greater in proportional terms than the rises
for those living in advantaged areas.
Current Strengths
and Weaknesses
• There is a 4% increase in the number of applicants (580,000) to HE
courses compared to the same point last year. This is in spite of the
continuing fall in the population of 18 year old population, which this year is
around 1%.
• An unprecedented 35% of 18 year olds from England have submitted a
UCAS application this year. Taking account of population changes,
application rates for 18 year olds across the whole of the UK are at, or
near, their highest levels.
• Young people from the most disadvantaged areas in England are now
almost twice as likely to apply as they were in 2004, significantly closing
the gap with those from the most advantaged areas over the last decade.
• Over 87,000 more women than men have applied, a difference that has
increased by 7,000 this year. Young women are a third more likely to
apply to higher education than young men.
Employability & Outcomes
American Story
Degree attainment linked to lifetime earnings
and average annual income levels.
Changing attitudes among students about the
purpose of education and preparation for a
job or career.
Outdated measures of completion:
• Focused on first-time starts completing at
the same institution.
• Yardstick moved from 4 to 5 to 6 years.
Employability & Outcomes
American Story
Frustration at low completion rates:
• Less than 60% of those measured
complete in six years.
• Little tracking of student mobility and
completion in our “permeable” systems.
Higher rates of white-collar long-term
unemployment since 2008 contribute to the
questioning of higher education as a means to
a good-paying job.
Employability & Outcomes
American Story
Shifting policy focus from access to
completion to outcomes and employment.
1960 – 1990: Access
to Higher Education
Mid-90’s – 2008:
Completion of
Higher Education
2009 – Present:
Outcomes from
Higher Education
Source: Pryor, J. H., Eagan, K., Palucki Blake, L., Hurtado, S., Berdan, J., & Case, M. H. (2012). The American freshman:
National norms fall 2012. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA.
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data
System (IPEDS), Spring 2012, Graduation Rates component. See Digest of Education Statistics 2012, table 376.
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data
System (IPEDS), Spring 2012, Graduation Rates component. See Digest of Education Statistics 2012, table 377.
Employability & Outcomes
UK Story
Emphasis on higher education as a route to
better employment
Completion Rates - a continuing success story
Employability & Outcomes
American Response
Federal and state moves to tie funding to
educational outcomes:
• State funding formulae that emphasize the
number of degrees awarded to state
residents.
• Gainful employment.
Measurements of educational quality related
to earnings of graduates.
Employability & Outcomes
American Response
Federal college rating system:
• Focused on providing better consumer
information that is not collected and
reported by a ranking company or
organization.
Better measurement of mobility and
completion across institutions:
• NSC Mobility Studies
Source: Signature Report #6, Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates, National Student
Clearinghouse Research Center, 2013.
Employability & Outcomes
UK Response
Increased investment in
Careers to match
increased expectations
about employability
Increased likelihood to
complain
Office of the Independent
Adjudicator for HE
Final Reflections: UK
Successive governments
have tried to create more of
a market in HE, but have
struggled to meet public
expectations for a HE
system open to all.
Scottish Independence
18 September 2014
Tuition fees
Research funding
Currency
EU membership
...will there be a UK?
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