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16thApril,2019
Castor | Sugar | RM Seed | Jeera
Click on the link above to participate Participate in our weekly quiz and get a chance to win Amazon gift coupons. Winners will
Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh states received the
deficit rainfall.
• Tripura state received the excess rainfall
• Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Goa, Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states received large
deficit rainfall.
• West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar states received the large excess rainfall
• Meghalaya, Sikkim, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka states received the normal rainfall.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01st March to 15th April 2019 was below LPA by 38% over the
country as a whole.
Weather Forecast:
• Below normal rainfall likely over west Bengal & Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu
& Kashmir; and near normal over the rest of the country during 18th to 24th April.
• Near Normal of below normal day maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha,
south Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and West coast of India.
• Development of heat wave conditions is less likely over any parts of the country during 19th to 25th April.
All India Reservoir Status: as on 11th April 2019
Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 91
reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly
bulletin on every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 91
reservoirs is 161.993 BCM which is about 63% of the live storage
capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in
the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 11.04.2019, live
storage available in these reservoirs is 46.513 BCM, which is 29% of
total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the
live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding
periodwas 41.339 BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage
was 45.162 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 91 reservoirs as
per 11.04.2019 Bulletin is 113% of the live storage of corresponding
period of last year and 103%of storage of average of last ten years.
Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC
Current Crop Scenario Current Crop Scenario
Wheat Change in Acreage: 298.47 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 306.29 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The crop harvesting is ongoing. Matured crop has been affected due to strong wind and rainfall in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Further, crops has suffered damage due to unseasonal rains and moderate to heavy storm in several areas of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat in third week of April-2019. However, climatic conditions were favorable for wheat crop due to rainfall received in winter season. Overall crop condition is below normal to normal. Production: According to NCML Research, Wheat production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 971 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 991 lakh MT
Prediction:Yield is expected to be normal.
Mustard Change in Acreage: 69.37 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 61.25 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The Mustard crop has been harvested. Rainfall in Jan-19 when crop was in seed development stage was beneficial to crop. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field during crop growing. Overall crop condition was satisfactory. Production: According to NCML Research, Mustard production for the year 2018-19 is
estimated to be 82.5 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 84
lakh MT
Gram Change in Acreage: 96.59 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 89.45 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The gram crop has been harvested. Incidence of disease and insect has been observed in some regions like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana. Crop in Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan is affected by frost and drought. Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal. Crop in Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan is affected by frost and drought. Overall crop condition was below-normal to normal Production: According to NCML Research, Gram production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 81 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 103 lakh MT
Lentil Change in Acreage: 16.93 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 13.94 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The crop has been harvested. Rainfall received in month of Feb-19 was beneficial for crop yield. Incidence of disease and insect was not observed in field. Overall current crop condition was normal. Production: According to NCML Research, Lentil production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 14.5 lakh MT, whereas, 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 15.3 lakh MT
Fundamental Analysis- CASTOR
• Strong buying activities from millers and stockists kept Castor
seed prices firm in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Moreover, firmness in Castor seed futures also kept the
domestics market sentiments positive.
• Trader’s view is that strong demand from processors amid
positive crush margins will support prices in coming days.
Medium to long term outlook is positive on expectation of lower
crop production. However, IMD forecast of near normal monsoon
rainfall is likely to keep a check on any significant upward
movement.
• According to the latest second advance estimates by Ministry of
Agriculture, Castor seed production for 2018-19 is estimated to
decline by 21.37 per cent at 11.77 lakh tonnes as compared to 14.97
lakh tonnes last year. The target set by government for 2018-19
castor seed production is 18.31 lakh tonnes.
• According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, Castor
seed production expected to decline to 1.20 to 1.25 million tonnes
in 2018-19 (July-June) against 1.42 million tonnes in the previous
year.
• As per trade sources, the decline in all India castor seed
production is mainly due to lower crop estimates from Gujarat
because of deficient rainfall during monsoon 2018 in major Castor
producing areas of Mehsana, Patan, and Surendranagar districts.
• As per the latest revised second advance estimates for 2018-19
crop by the Department of Agriculture Gujarat, Castor seed
production is estimated to decline by 35.24 per cent at 9.61 lakh
tonnes as against 14.84 lakh tonnes during 2017-18.
• As per the Department of Agriculture Rajasthan, Castor seed
production in 2018-19 is likely to decline at 1.56 lakh tonnes as
compared to 1.66 lakh tonnes during 2017-18.
• Castor seed acreage in Andhra Pradesh & Telangana for the year
2018-19 is 60270 hectares as per the government’s estimates
against last year’s estimate of 57930 hectares, which has
increased by 4 per cent as compared to the previous year. Total
production in the state is estimated to be 0.23 lakh tonnes during
the year 2018-19 compared 0.27 lakh tonnes in 2017-18.
• According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India, export
of castor seed meal during financial year 2018-19 has declined
significantly by 35.83 per cent at 3.67 lakh tonnes as against 5.72
lakh tonnes exported in 2017-18.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019
%Change
Deesa 5929 5701 3.99
Kadi 5985 5708 4.85
Rajkot 5815 5390 7.88
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Strong buying activities from millers and stockists in most of the spot markets
Bullish
Profit booking at higher levels Bearish
Castor seed production in 2018-19 estimated to decline by 21.37 per cent at 11.77 lakh tonnes
Bullish
Lower production estimates from Gujarat and Rajasthan
Bullish
Export of castor seed meal in 2018-19 has declined significantly by 35 per cent at 3.67 lakh tonnes