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Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013

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  • 7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    ContentsReturns

    Non Agri Commodities Currencies

    Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities

    Gold

    Silver

    Copper Crude Oil

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities

    Chana

    Black Pepper Turmeric

    Jeera

    Soybean

    Refine Soy Oil & CPO

    Sugar

    Kapas

    Monday | February 04, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

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    *Weekly Performance for February contract; Turmeric and Kapas - April 2013 contract, Jeera and Chilli- March contract

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Monday | February 04, 2013

    GoldWeekly Price Performance

    Spot gold prices gained 0.5 percent w-on-w. The yellow metal touched a

    weekly high of $1,683.4 /oz and closed at $ 1,666.5 per ounce on Friday.

    On the MCX, Gold February contract ended 1.29 percent lower due toappreciation in the rupee. Sharp fall in the prices were cushioned due to

    strength in the spot gold prices. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.

    29,938/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 29,794/ 10gms.

    Factors that influenced gold prices

    Gold prices rose owing to favorable data from the US and the Euro region

    along with weakness in the DX. US nonfarm payrolls for the month of Jan-13

    were lower than expectations but the job gains in the previous two

    months(Nov & Dec 2012) were revised higher than earlier reportedindicating that the economy is on the path of recovery erasing concerns of

    contraction in the growth in the fourth quarter.

    Further, optimism that US Federal Reserve might continue with its monetary

    easing program until 2014 also added to the gains in the gold prices. US

    Federal Reserve said that policy makers might continue with their bond

    buying program until jobs market improves substantially.

    Outlook

    In the coming week, we expect gold prices to witness selling pressure as

    reports of global recovery is likely to reduce the safe haven buying of theyellow metal. However, continuation of the bond buying program by US

    Federal Reserve to spur growth might cushion fall in the prices. In the

    domestic markets appreciation in the Indian rupee might exert downside

    pressure on the gold prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Gold : Support $1,651/1,631 Resistance $1,678/1699.

    Sell MCX Gold April b/w 30,690-30,720, SL-30,891, Target -30,420. (CMP:

    30,507)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    SilverWeekly Price Performance

    Spot silver gained 2.1 percent week on week. The white metal touched

    a weekly high of $ 32.23/oz and closed at $ 31.80 per oz on Friday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 0.4 percent and closed

    at Rs. 58,502/kg on Friday and touched a weekly high of Rs. 59,139/ kg.

    Rise in the spot silver prices supported an upside in the silver prices on

    MCX. However, appreciation in the Indian rupee restricted gains in the

    silver prices on MCX.

    Factors that influenced silver prices

    Silver prices traced rise in the gold prices along with strength in the

    base metals pack. Weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the

    silver prices.

    Positive data from the US, Euro zone region and China also acted as a

    supportive factor for the silver prices.

    Holdings in the ishares silver trust witnessed sell off and stood at

    10,378.52 tonnes a decline of 0.9 percent as against 10,468.76 tonnes

    as on January 25th 2013

    Outlook Favorable data from US, Euro zone region and China is expected to

    keep silver prices firm in the coming week. Weakness in the DX is also

    expected to act as a supportive factor for the silver prices. However,sharp gains might be capped due to decline in the spot gold prices.

    In the domestic markets appreciation in the Rupee might exert

    downside pressure on the MCX Silver prices.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Silver : Support $ 31.47/30.92 Resistance $32.47/33.14

    Buy MCX Silver March between 58,000-57,900, SL-57,400, Target -

    59,200 (Rs. 58,075)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    CopperWeekly Price Performance

    Copper prices gained 3.3 percent week on week. Copper prices on LME touched a

    weekly high of $ 8,318 per tonne and closed at $8,310 per tonne on Friday.

    In the domestic markets, MCX copper fell 1.74 percent and closed at Rs. 444.2 per

    kg on Friday. Firmness in the international copper prices pushed prices upwards.

    Appreciation in rupee capped gains in the copper prices on MCX.

    Copper Inventories

    LME copper inventories gained 10.26 percent week on week and stood at

    376,000 tonnes as against 341,000 tonnes on 25th January 201213.

    Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 3.9

    percent and stood at 197,091 tonnes in the last week.

    Factors that influenced copper prices Favorable data from the US and the Euro zone which showcased growth in the

    major consuming nation.

    Optimism that the US Federal Reserve might continue with the bond buying

    program until jobs data improves in the nation.

    Weakness in the DX also added to the gains in the copper prices. However, rise in

    the LME inventories week on week capped gains in the copper prices.

    Outlook

    Copper prices in the coming week is expected to trade with positive bias due tooptimism amongst market participants that demand from the key consuming

    nations might witness a rise after favorable economic data. However, sharp gains

    in the prices are likely to be restricted as the Chinese participation might be

    subdued ahead of Lunar year holidays. Weakness in the DX is also expected to

    add to the gains in the copper prices. In the domestic markets appreciation in the

    Indian Rupee are likely to cap gains in the MCX prices.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Buy MCX Copper Feb b/w 441.50-440, SL-437, Target -447/451 (CMP: 443.15)

    LME Copper: Support $8,140/7,690 Resistance $8,460/8,650 (CMP: $8,291.25)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

    On a weekly basis, NYMEX crude oil prices gained around 2 percent.

    On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.2 percent as a result ofappreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,182/bbl on Friday and

    touched a weekly low of Rs.5,140/bbl.

    US Energy Department Facts and Figures

    As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories rose

    more than expected by 5.9 million barrels to 369.10 million barrels for the

    week ending on 25th January 2012. Gasoline stocks declined by 1.0 million

    barrels to 232.30 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles fell by 2.3

    million barrels to 130.60 million barrels for the last week.

    Factors that influenced crude oil prices Optimistic statement from US Federal Reserve of continuing the plan of

    bonding buying.

    Weakness in the DX.

    Additionally, favorable economic data from the US and Euro region also

    supported an upside in the crude oil prices.

    However, sharp upside in the crude prices was capped on the back of more

    than expected rise in the US crude oil inventories.

    Outlook Crude oil prices are expected to trade on a positive note on the back of

    expectations of rise in demand for the fuel along with weakness in the DX.

    However, sharp upside in the crude oil prices will be capped as a result of rising

    crude oil inventories.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    NYMEX Crude Oil: Support: $95.95/94.35 Resistance $98.70/99.95 (CMP: 97.0)

    Buy MCX Crude February between 5136-5156, SL-5080, Target -5270/5300.

    (CMP: 5172)

    75.0

    80.0

    85.0

    90.0

    95.0

    100.0

    105.0

    110.0

    4,4004,500

    4,6004,700

    4,8004,9005,0005,1005,2005,3005,4005,5005,600

    Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

    M CX cr ud e o il (Rs/bb l) NYMEX Cr ud e Oi l ($ /b bl)

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    370

    380

    390

    Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

    US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.9 percent w-on-w. The index settled at 79.14

    levels on Friday after touching a low of 78.92 levels in last week.

    The Indian Rupee continued to appreciate and ended 1.2 percent on weekly basis.

    Factors that influenced movement in the DX

    The index settled lower due to signs of recovery in the major nations indicating

    growth and thereby decline in the demand for the low yielding currency.

    Apart from this favorable data from the US along with reports that the Federal

    Reserve would continue with its bond buying program until jobs data improves

    substantially.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

    On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 1.2 percent as a result of centralbank cutting the key interest rates and setting a lower inflation target for March

    2013. Apart from the above factor selling of dollars from exporters coupled with

    rising foreign inflows also supported an upside in the currency.

    Indian governments expects to raise more than 25 billion rupee ($465 million by

    selling 10 percent stake in Oil India Ltd. Selling down the stake in companies is an

    effort by the government to reduce the fiscal deficit of the nation. This also caused

    appreciation in the rupee.

    FII Inflows

    For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,042.20 crores ($195.57million) as on 1st February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at

    Rs.23,101.30 crores ($4,254.90 million) till 1st February 2013

    Outlook

    We expect rupee to appreciate in the current week on continued foreign

    institutional flows along with positive reforms by the government to spur growth in

    the economy.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    USD/INR MCX February Support 52.80/52.40 Resistance 53.85/54.30 (CMP: 53.22)

    US Dollar Index: Support 78.75/78.30 Resistance 79.80/80.40 (CMP: 79.26)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    EuroWeekly Price Performance

    The Euro appreciated by 1.3 percent in the last week .

    The currency touched a weekly high of 1.3711 and closed at 1.3639 against

    dollar on Friday.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

    Favorable data Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI along with decline in

    the regions unemployment rate.

    Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market

    sentiments also acted as a positive factor for the currency.

    News

    Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.5

    points to 46.1-mark in January as against a rise of 44.6-level in December

    Italian Manufacturing PMI rose by 1.1 points to 47.8-level in January from

    earlier rise of 46.7-mark in December. European Final Manufacturing PMI

    increased by 0.4 points to 47.9-mark in last month as compared to earlier

    rise of 47.5-level in December.

    Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate rose to 11.2 percent in December with

    respect to earlier gain of 11.1 percent a month ago. European

    Unemployment Rate declined to 11.7 percent in December from rise of 11.8

    percent in November.

    Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate rose at slow pace of 2 percent in

    January as against a rise of 2.2 percent in December.

    Outlook

    We expect the Euro to trade with a positive bias on signs of recovery in the

    nation and thereby hopes of curtailing the debt crisis of the region.

    Weakness in the DX is also expected to add to the gains in Euro.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.34700/1.3290 Resistance 1.378/1.3950

    (CMP: 1.3625)

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Chana futures settled 3.97% lower w-o-w as supplies have increased amid start

    to harvesting in Maharashtra and UP coupled with higher output expectations.

    Arrivals commenced in Maharashtra and UP

    Chana harvesting is going on in Karnataka & Andhra Pradesh and has

    commenced in some parts of Maharashtra and UP too. Harvesting in MP, the

    largest Chana producing belt shall commence in February 2012 while in

    Rajasthan harvesting may get delay.

    Chana acreage up by 3.4% , But pulses sowing lags

    Total pulses acreage as on 18th Jan 2013 stood at 1142.33 lakh ha, down by

    0.6% yoy. As on 11th Jan 2013, pulses acreage was up by 0.4%. Chana sowing is

    complete and acreage is at 91.9 lakh ha, up by 3.4% as on 18th Jan. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha,

    In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lk ha as on 11 Jan 2013 vs normal

    area of 10.6 lk ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. (Source: State farm dept)

    Chana Output up yoy

    Chana output may remain near the targeted output of 79.6 lakh tonnes. Adverse

    weather condition in North India may have marginal impact on the output in

    Rajasthan which may be offset by higher output in other growing regions.

    Output in other growing nations like, Australia, Canada and Tanzania is also

    higher which may keep prices under pressure.

    Outlook

    Chana prices may remain under downside pressure as supplies may increase in

    the coming weeks. However, the government has fixed higher MSP of Chana for

    2012-13 at Rs 3200 per qtl. Thus, no major downside is expected in the medium

    to long term. Stockiest may start accumulating stocks at lower levels.

    Weekly Strategy

    Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3510-3530, SL -3635, Target - 3360 / 3330

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    Black Pepper

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Pepper Futures traded on a positive note for the fifth consecutive week on back

    of low stocks in the domestic markets. There is a delay in harvesting of the freshcrop due to lack of skilled labor. Good winter demand coupled with demand from

    the upcountry markets also supported the prices. The Food Safety and Standards

    Authority of India sealed the pepper stored in six warehouses at Kochi of about

    8,000 tonnes leaving no stocks on the exchange warehouses. The Spot as well as

    the Futures settled 2.48% and 1.79% higher w-o-w.

    Indian Pepper is being offered at $8,250/tn (c&f, Europe). A sharp appreciation in

    the Rupee has pushed up Indian pepper prices. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia

    Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil is quoted at $6,600/tn.

    Averages daily arrivals stood at 8 tn while offtakes stood at 7 tn last week.Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

    According to market sources, Pepper production is expected around 63,000 tn in

    2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 availability at 70,000 tn.

    Global updates

    Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

    2011. Vietnam pepper exports during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt. Pepper

    production from Vietnam decreased to 1 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011.

    Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against

    32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.

    Outlook

    Pepper Futures is expected to continue to trade on a positive note this week due

    to thin supplies in the domestic markets. A delay in harvesting may also damage

    some berries. Lack of stocks on the exchange warehouses may also support the

    prices. however, higher production estimates coupled with weak export demand

    for Indian pepper may cap sharp upside.

    Weekly Strategy

    Buy NCDEX March Pepper between 36200-36300, SL- 35190, Tgt-37700/37980 .

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Turmeric

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Turmeric Futures opened the week on a negative note on the back of huge

    carryover stocks and commencement of harvest of the fresh crop. Later on, prices

    recovered due to demand at lower levels. However, prices again corrected

    towards the end of the week as huge carryover stocks pressurized prices at higher

    levels. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

    The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.

    Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.

    According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

    Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot settled 0.25% higher while

    Futures settled 0.55% lower w-o-w.

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

    well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

    October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

    as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

    Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

    Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-55 lakh bags. Production

    in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tns.

    Outlook

    Turmeric prices may trade on a mixed note this week. Good demand from

    stockists at lower levels coupled with as well as demand from the upcountry

    markets are expected to push up the prices. Traders expect export orders also to

    start in the coming weeks. Arrivals of good quality crop may also boost prices.

    However, huge carryover stocks may cap a sharp upside in the prices.

    Commencement of harvest of the early crop may also keep a check on the prices.

    Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX April Turmeric between 6230-6290, SL- 5980, Target- 6660/6720.

    Monday | February 04, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Jeera

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Jeera Futures gained last week on reports of fresh demand from Bangladesh while

    the spot remained negative tracking higher sowing data. Sowing in Gujarat, the

    major jeera growing state was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 2013. Last 3 years

    average sowing is around 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.

    The Spot settled 0.39% lower while the Futures settled 2.62% higher w-o-w.

    Effect of higher production offset by higher exports

    Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than

    29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to

    supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the

    prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

    Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target

    for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.

    According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved.

    Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

    between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

    have stopped shipments. There are some export enquiries at lower levels.

    International Scenario

    According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

    around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,925/tn (c&f).

    Outlook

    Jeera is may correct from higher levels on fulfillment of the export orders as well

    as tracking higher sowing. However, sharp downside may be limited as exporters

    may buy at lower levels. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at such low prices.

    Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX March Jeera between 13950-14000, SL-14350., Target 13430/13350.

    Monday | February 04, 2013

    0

    1

    1

    2

    2

    3

    3

    Production,

    in

    LakhT

    onnes

    Production of Jeera in India

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    NCDEX as well as CBOT Soybean settled 1.5 % and 2.3% higher w-o-w on concerns

    over dry weather conditions in Argentina which may revise down the Argentina Soy

    crop estimates.

    China soy stocks to fall 20 pct amid low Q1 imports

    Soy stocks at major ports in China, the world's largest buyer of the grain, may fall

    about a fifth to about 4 mn tn by the end of March on expectations of lower imports

    and high production by crushers.(Source: Reuters)

    The centre also estimated China's soy imports in the first quarter of 2013 at about

    11.6 million tonnes, 13 percent lower than 13.26 million in the first quarter of 2012.

    Informa cuts Argentina Soy crop estimates

    Informa cut its soybean estimate to 54.5 mn tn, from 58.4 mn previously.

    However, it raised its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 84.0 million tonnes,

    which the firm said was up 1.1 million from its previous figure.

    Global Soybean stocks sufficient to meet the demand

    Global soybean production is projected at 269.4 mn tn , up 1.7 mn with gains in the

    United States and Brazil only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The

    Brazil soybean crop is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 82.5 million reflecting

    record area and improving yield prospects.

    The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons, down 1 mn from theprevious forecast mainly due to lower projected area resulting from excessive

    moisture throughout much of the central growing area.

    Outlook

    Soybean prices may gain during the early part of the week on account of lower

    supplies in the domestic markets, however, forecast of favorable in Argentina may

    cap the upside in the prices.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Soybean March between 3230-3260, SL -3155, Target - 3370 / 3395

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    Edible Oil complex remained firm during the last week taking positive cues

    from oilseeds markets. CPO prices at MCX and at BMD settled 2.5% and 5.4%higher respectively. AT NCDEX and CBOT, soy oil futures settled 18% and

    1.7% higher w-o-w.

    Global Scenario

    Malaysian palm oil product exports during January fell 7%to 1,458,475 tonnes

    from 1,568,510 tonnes in December.

    Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer increased its export tax for crude

    palm oil to 9% for February from 7.5% in the previous month.

    There are reports that Indonesian province, East Kalimantan , may halt palm

    expansion. Palm oil plantations now cover about 700,000 hectares of EastKalimantan and produce 2 million tonnes of output each year.

    Domestic Scenario

    The head of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India has proposed India

    should raise the duty on crude edible oil imports to 10 percent from the

    recently revised 2.5 percent.

    The initial move is not sufficient to protect the interests of domestic oilseeds

    growers and crushers as the duty gap between the crude and refined oils was

    small and would promote imports of refined oils into the country.

    India raised the base import price of crude palm oil (CPO) by nearly 80% to

    $802 per tn as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases and protect

    domestic oilseed farmers.

    The government also set the base import price for crude soy oil at $1,190 per

    tonnes, up from $580 per tn. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at

    783,091 tn in December.

    Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

    Buy NCDEX RefSoya Oil March between 710-715, SL -694, Target 738/743

    Buy MCX CPO Feb between 443-448, SL -432, Target - 464 / 468

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Sugar futures declined further by 3.1% w-o-w on the back of higher production

    and availability in the domestic markets and comparatively lower demand amid

    winter season. Higher FRP failed to support upside in the prices. InternationalSugar gained amidst Chinese demand.

    India's Oct-Jan sugar output up 3 pct y/y

    Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, Indian 13.7

    mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3

    percent a year ago period.

    India sets 2013-14 cane price at 210 rupees per 100 kg

    India has raised the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) to Rs 210/ qtl for 2013-14

    season, up from 170/qtl in the current season.

    India unlikely to consider sugar import tax until Feb end

    Government would wait until end-February to get a clear idea about the 2012-13

    season sugar output before conceding to industry's demand to raise import tax.

    China buys more sugar despite high inventory

    At least 1 lakh tn of raw sugar from south and central America are being shipped

    to China with a further 150,000 tonnes likely in February with Brazilian physical

    premiums rising sharply in the past three to four weeks.

    The cost of importing Brazilian raw sugar is currently around 4,930 Yuan a tn inChina, which is 546 Yuan cheaper than domestically produced sugar.

    Outlook

    Sugar prices are expected to trade with negative bias as higher supplies continue

    to pressurize prices considering the weak demand. Also weak international

    markets are making exports unviable. market needs very strong signals from the

    government as well as global markets to bring an upside rebound in the prices.

    Strategy

    Sell NCDEX SUGAR March between 3160-3180, SL -3255, Target - 3050 / 3030

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Cotton futures witnessed a divergent performance in the domestic and international

    markets during the last week with NCDEX Kapas declining 1 percent w-o-w whileICE Cotton futures settled 3 percent higher.

    In the domestic markets weak demand from the millers and sufficient supplies is

    pressurizing prices, while in the international markets prices are gaining mainly on

    expectations of higher imports from china expected lower US cotton in the next

    season 2013-14. However, ICE Cotton declined towards the week end after

    cancellations of Chinese export orders amid higher international prices.

    Domestic Cotton Arrivals down 6.5 percent on year as on 20th Jan 2013

    Cotton supplies from the new crop in the domestic markets until Jan. 20 fell were

    down at 134 lakh bales, down from 144 lakh bales a year earlier.

    Cotton Advisory Board revised down production estimates

    The Cotton Advisory Board in January has estimated cotton production this season

    (Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) at 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in October

    at 334 lakh bales. Exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to

    253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As

    on January 9 this year, nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports.

    U.S. all upland cotton weekly export sales

    Net Upland sales of 2.13 lakh running bales for the 2012-2013 marketing year weredown 37% from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.

    Outlook

    Kapas prices may remain under downside pressure on account of sufficient supplies

    in the domestic markets and lower export demand expectations. Also, international

    prices which had gained sharply in the last two weeks are due for correction amid

    rising certified stocks, and Chinese lunar New year approaching.

    Strategy

    Sell NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 905-915, SL -942, Target - 865 / 855 Source: Reuters * 2013 figs are as per Reuters survey

  • 7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013

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