7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
1/20
Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
2/20
Commodities Weekly Tracker
ContentsReturns
Non Agri Commodities Currencies
Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
Gold
Silver
Copper Crude Oil
Currencies DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
Chana
Black Pepper Turmeric
Jeera
Soybean
Refine Soy Oil & CPO
Sugar
Kapas
Monday | February 04, 2013
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
3/20
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
4/20
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
5/20
*Weekly Performance for February contract; Turmeric and Kapas - April 2013 contract, Jeera and Chilli- March contract
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
6/20
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 04, 2013
GoldWeekly Price Performance
Spot gold prices gained 0.5 percent w-on-w. The yellow metal touched a
weekly high of $1,683.4 /oz and closed at $ 1,666.5 per ounce on Friday.
On the MCX, Gold February contract ended 1.29 percent lower due toappreciation in the rupee. Sharp fall in the prices were cushioned due to
strength in the spot gold prices. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.
29,938/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 29,794/ 10gms.
Factors that influenced gold prices
Gold prices rose owing to favorable data from the US and the Euro region
along with weakness in the DX. US nonfarm payrolls for the month of Jan-13
were lower than expectations but the job gains in the previous two
months(Nov & Dec 2012) were revised higher than earlier reportedindicating that the economy is on the path of recovery erasing concerns of
contraction in the growth in the fourth quarter.
Further, optimism that US Federal Reserve might continue with its monetary
easing program until 2014 also added to the gains in the gold prices. US
Federal Reserve said that policy makers might continue with their bond
buying program until jobs market improves substantially.
Outlook
In the coming week, we expect gold prices to witness selling pressure as
reports of global recovery is likely to reduce the safe haven buying of theyellow metal. However, continuation of the bond buying program by US
Federal Reserve to spur growth might cushion fall in the prices. In the
domestic markets appreciation in the Indian rupee might exert downside
pressure on the gold prices on MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Gold : Support $1,651/1,631 Resistance $1,678/1699.
Sell MCX Gold April b/w 30,690-30,720, SL-30,891, Target -30,420. (CMP:
30,507)
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
7/20
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
SilverWeekly Price Performance
Spot silver gained 2.1 percent week on week. The white metal touched
a weekly high of $ 32.23/oz and closed at $ 31.80 per oz on Friday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 0.4 percent and closed
at Rs. 58,502/kg on Friday and touched a weekly high of Rs. 59,139/ kg.
Rise in the spot silver prices supported an upside in the silver prices on
MCX. However, appreciation in the Indian rupee restricted gains in the
silver prices on MCX.
Factors that influenced silver prices
Silver prices traced rise in the gold prices along with strength in the
base metals pack. Weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the
silver prices.
Positive data from the US, Euro zone region and China also acted as a
supportive factor for the silver prices.
Holdings in the ishares silver trust witnessed sell off and stood at
10,378.52 tonnes a decline of 0.9 percent as against 10,468.76 tonnes
as on January 25th 2013
Outlook Favorable data from US, Euro zone region and China is expected to
keep silver prices firm in the coming week. Weakness in the DX is also
expected to act as a supportive factor for the silver prices. However,sharp gains might be capped due to decline in the spot gold prices.
In the domestic markets appreciation in the Rupee might exert
downside pressure on the MCX Silver prices.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Silver : Support $ 31.47/30.92 Resistance $32.47/33.14
Buy MCX Silver March between 58,000-57,900, SL-57,400, Target -
59,200 (Rs. 58,075)
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
8/20
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
CopperWeekly Price Performance
Copper prices gained 3.3 percent week on week. Copper prices on LME touched a
weekly high of $ 8,318 per tonne and closed at $8,310 per tonne on Friday.
In the domestic markets, MCX copper fell 1.74 percent and closed at Rs. 444.2 per
kg on Friday. Firmness in the international copper prices pushed prices upwards.
Appreciation in rupee capped gains in the copper prices on MCX.
Copper Inventories
LME copper inventories gained 10.26 percent week on week and stood at
376,000 tonnes as against 341,000 tonnes on 25th January 201213.
Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 3.9
percent and stood at 197,091 tonnes in the last week.
Factors that influenced copper prices Favorable data from the US and the Euro zone which showcased growth in the
major consuming nation.
Optimism that the US Federal Reserve might continue with the bond buying
program until jobs data improves in the nation.
Weakness in the DX also added to the gains in the copper prices. However, rise in
the LME inventories week on week capped gains in the copper prices.
Outlook
Copper prices in the coming week is expected to trade with positive bias due tooptimism amongst market participants that demand from the key consuming
nations might witness a rise after favorable economic data. However, sharp gains
in the prices are likely to be restricted as the Chinese participation might be
subdued ahead of Lunar year holidays. Weakness in the DX is also expected to
add to the gains in the copper prices. In the domestic markets appreciation in the
Indian Rupee are likely to cap gains in the MCX prices.
Weekly Technical Levels
Buy MCX Copper Feb b/w 441.50-440, SL-437, Target -447/451 (CMP: 443.15)
LME Copper: Support $8,140/7,690 Resistance $8,460/8,650 (CMP: $8,291.25)
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
9/20
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
Crude OilWeekly Price Performance
On a weekly basis, NYMEX crude oil prices gained around 2 percent.
On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.2 percent as a result ofappreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,182/bbl on Friday and
touched a weekly low of Rs.5,140/bbl.
US Energy Department Facts and Figures
As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories rose
more than expected by 5.9 million barrels to 369.10 million barrels for the
week ending on 25th January 2012. Gasoline stocks declined by 1.0 million
barrels to 232.30 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles fell by 2.3
million barrels to 130.60 million barrels for the last week.
Factors that influenced crude oil prices Optimistic statement from US Federal Reserve of continuing the plan of
bonding buying.
Weakness in the DX.
Additionally, favorable economic data from the US and Euro region also
supported an upside in the crude oil prices.
However, sharp upside in the crude prices was capped on the back of more
than expected rise in the US crude oil inventories.
Outlook Crude oil prices are expected to trade on a positive note on the back of
expectations of rise in demand for the fuel along with weakness in the DX.
However, sharp upside in the crude oil prices will be capped as a result of rising
crude oil inventories.
Weekly Technical Levels
NYMEX Crude Oil: Support: $95.95/94.35 Resistance $98.70/99.95 (CMP: 97.0)
Buy MCX Crude February between 5136-5156, SL-5080, Target -5270/5300.
(CMP: 5172)
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
4,4004,500
4,6004,700
4,8004,9005,0005,1005,2005,3005,4005,5005,600
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
M CX cr ud e o il (Rs/bb l) NYMEX Cr ud e Oi l ($ /b bl)
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
10/20
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance
US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.9 percent w-on-w. The index settled at 79.14
levels on Friday after touching a low of 78.92 levels in last week.
The Indian Rupee continued to appreciate and ended 1.2 percent on weekly basis.
Factors that influenced movement in the DX
The index settled lower due to signs of recovery in the major nations indicating
growth and thereby decline in the demand for the low yielding currency.
Apart from this favorable data from the US along with reports that the Federal
Reserve would continue with its bond buying program until jobs data improves
substantially.
Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 1.2 percent as a result of centralbank cutting the key interest rates and setting a lower inflation target for March
2013. Apart from the above factor selling of dollars from exporters coupled with
rising foreign inflows also supported an upside in the currency.
Indian governments expects to raise more than 25 billion rupee ($465 million by
selling 10 percent stake in Oil India Ltd. Selling down the stake in companies is an
effort by the government to reduce the fiscal deficit of the nation. This also caused
appreciation in the rupee.
FII Inflows
For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,042.20 crores ($195.57million) as on 1st February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at
Rs.23,101.30 crores ($4,254.90 million) till 1st February 2013
Outlook
We expect rupee to appreciate in the current week on continued foreign
institutional flows along with positive reforms by the government to spur growth in
the economy.
Weekly Technical Levels
USD/INR MCX February Support 52.80/52.40 Resistance 53.85/54.30 (CMP: 53.22)
US Dollar Index: Support 78.75/78.30 Resistance 79.80/80.40 (CMP: 79.26)
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
11/20
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
EuroWeekly Price Performance
The Euro appreciated by 1.3 percent in the last week .
The currency touched a weekly high of 1.3711 and closed at 1.3639 against
dollar on Friday.
Factors that influenced movement in the Euro
Favorable data Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI along with decline in
the regions unemployment rate.
Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market
sentiments also acted as a positive factor for the currency.
News
Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.5
points to 46.1-mark in January as against a rise of 44.6-level in December
Italian Manufacturing PMI rose by 1.1 points to 47.8-level in January from
earlier rise of 46.7-mark in December. European Final Manufacturing PMI
increased by 0.4 points to 47.9-mark in last month as compared to earlier
rise of 47.5-level in December.
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate rose to 11.2 percent in December with
respect to earlier gain of 11.1 percent a month ago. European
Unemployment Rate declined to 11.7 percent in December from rise of 11.8
percent in November.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate rose at slow pace of 2 percent in
January as against a rise of 2.2 percent in December.
Outlook
We expect the Euro to trade with a positive bias on signs of recovery in the
nation and thereby hopes of curtailing the debt crisis of the region.
Weakness in the DX is also expected to add to the gains in Euro.
Weekly Technical Levels
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.34700/1.3290 Resistance 1.378/1.3950
(CMP: 1.3625)
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
12/20
Chana
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Chana futures settled 3.97% lower w-o-w as supplies have increased amid start
to harvesting in Maharashtra and UP coupled with higher output expectations.
Arrivals commenced in Maharashtra and UP
Chana harvesting is going on in Karnataka & Andhra Pradesh and has
commenced in some parts of Maharashtra and UP too. Harvesting in MP, the
largest Chana producing belt shall commence in February 2012 while in
Rajasthan harvesting may get delay.
Chana acreage up by 3.4% , But pulses sowing lags
Total pulses acreage as on 18th Jan 2013 stood at 1142.33 lakh ha, down by
0.6% yoy. As on 11th Jan 2013, pulses acreage was up by 0.4%. Chana sowing is
complete and acreage is at 91.9 lakh ha, up by 3.4% as on 18th Jan. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha,
In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lk ha as on 11 Jan 2013 vs normal
area of 10.6 lk ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. (Source: State farm dept)
Chana Output up yoy
Chana output may remain near the targeted output of 79.6 lakh tonnes. Adverse
weather condition in North India may have marginal impact on the output in
Rajasthan which may be offset by higher output in other growing regions.
Output in other growing nations like, Australia, Canada and Tanzania is also
higher which may keep prices under pressure.
Outlook
Chana prices may remain under downside pressure as supplies may increase in
the coming weeks. However, the government has fixed higher MSP of Chana for
2012-13 at Rs 3200 per qtl. Thus, no major downside is expected in the medium
to long term. Stockiest may start accumulating stocks at lower levels.
Weekly Strategy
Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3510-3530, SL -3635, Target - 3360 / 3330
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
13/20
Black Pepper
Source: Reuters & Angel Research
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Pepper Futures traded on a positive note for the fifth consecutive week on back
of low stocks in the domestic markets. There is a delay in harvesting of the freshcrop due to lack of skilled labor. Good winter demand coupled with demand from
the upcountry markets also supported the prices. The Food Safety and Standards
Authority of India sealed the pepper stored in six warehouses at Kochi of about
8,000 tonnes leaving no stocks on the exchange warehouses. The Spot as well as
the Futures settled 2.48% and 1.79% higher w-o-w.
Indian Pepper is being offered at $8,250/tn (c&f, Europe). A sharp appreciation in
the Rupee has pushed up Indian pepper prices. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia
Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil is quoted at $6,600/tn.
Averages daily arrivals stood at 8 tn while offtakes stood at 7 tn last week.Expectations of higher output in 2012-13
According to market sources, Pepper production is expected around 63,000 tn in
2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 availability at 70,000 tn.
Global updates
Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in
2011. Vietnam pepper exports during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt. Pepper
production from Vietnam decreased to 1 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011.
Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against
32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.
Outlook
Pepper Futures is expected to continue to trade on a positive note this week due
to thin supplies in the domestic markets. A delay in harvesting may also damage
some berries. Lack of stocks on the exchange warehouses may also support the
prices. however, higher production estimates coupled with weak export demand
for Indian pepper may cap sharp upside.
Weekly Strategy
Buy NCDEX March Pepper between 36200-36300, SL- 35190, Tgt-37700/37980 .
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
14/20
Turmeric
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Turmeric Futures opened the week on a negative note on the back of huge
carryover stocks and commencement of harvest of the fresh crop. Later on, prices
recovered due to demand at lower levels. However, prices again corrected
towards the end of the week as huge carryover stocks pressurized prices at higher
levels. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.
The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.
Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.
According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern
Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot settled 0.25% higher while
Futures settled 0.55% lower w-o-w.
Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as
well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th
October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower
as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).
Lower production in the 2012-2013 season
Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-55 lakh bags. Production
in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tns.
Outlook
Turmeric prices may trade on a mixed note this week. Good demand from
stockists at lower levels coupled with as well as demand from the upcountry
markets are expected to push up the prices. Traders expect export orders also to
start in the coming weeks. Arrivals of good quality crop may also boost prices.
However, huge carryover stocks may cap a sharp upside in the prices.
Commencement of harvest of the early crop may also keep a check on the prices.
Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX April Turmeric between 6230-6290, SL- 5980, Target- 6660/6720.
Monday | February 04, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
15/20
Jeera
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Jeera Futures gained last week on reports of fresh demand from Bangladesh while
the spot remained negative tracking higher sowing data. Sowing in Gujarat, the
major jeera growing state was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 2013. Last 3 years
average sowing is around 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.
The Spot settled 0.39% lower while the Futures settled 2.62% higher w-o-w.
Effect of higher production offset by higher exports
Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than
29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to
supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the
prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.
Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target
for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.
According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved.
Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions
between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They
have stopped shipments. There are some export enquiries at lower levels.
International Scenario
According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while
production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and
around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.
Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,925/tn (c&f).
Outlook
Jeera is may correct from higher levels on fulfillment of the export orders as well
as tracking higher sowing. However, sharp downside may be limited as exporters
may buy at lower levels. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at such low prices.
Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX March Jeera between 13950-14000, SL-14350., Target 13430/13350.
Monday | February 04, 2013
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
Production,
in
LakhT
onnes
Production of Jeera in India
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
16/20
Soybean
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
Weekly price performance
NCDEX as well as CBOT Soybean settled 1.5 % and 2.3% higher w-o-w on concerns
over dry weather conditions in Argentina which may revise down the Argentina Soy
crop estimates.
China soy stocks to fall 20 pct amid low Q1 imports
Soy stocks at major ports in China, the world's largest buyer of the grain, may fall
about a fifth to about 4 mn tn by the end of March on expectations of lower imports
and high production by crushers.(Source: Reuters)
The centre also estimated China's soy imports in the first quarter of 2013 at about
11.6 million tonnes, 13 percent lower than 13.26 million in the first quarter of 2012.
Informa cuts Argentina Soy crop estimates
Informa cut its soybean estimate to 54.5 mn tn, from 58.4 mn previously.
However, it raised its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 84.0 million tonnes,
which the firm said was up 1.1 million from its previous figure.
Global Soybean stocks sufficient to meet the demand
Global soybean production is projected at 269.4 mn tn , up 1.7 mn with gains in the
United States and Brazil only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The
Brazil soybean crop is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 82.5 million reflecting
record area and improving yield prospects.
The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons, down 1 mn from theprevious forecast mainly due to lower projected area resulting from excessive
moisture throughout much of the central growing area.
Outlook
Soybean prices may gain during the early part of the week on account of lower
supplies in the domestic markets, however, forecast of favorable in Argentina may
cap the upside in the prices.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX Soybean March between 3230-3260, SL -3155, Target - 3370 / 3395
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
17/20
Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
Weekly price performance
Edible Oil complex remained firm during the last week taking positive cues
from oilseeds markets. CPO prices at MCX and at BMD settled 2.5% and 5.4%higher respectively. AT NCDEX and CBOT, soy oil futures settled 18% and
1.7% higher w-o-w.
Global Scenario
Malaysian palm oil product exports during January fell 7%to 1,458,475 tonnes
from 1,568,510 tonnes in December.
Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer increased its export tax for crude
palm oil to 9% for February from 7.5% in the previous month.
There are reports that Indonesian province, East Kalimantan , may halt palm
expansion. Palm oil plantations now cover about 700,000 hectares of EastKalimantan and produce 2 million tonnes of output each year.
Domestic Scenario
The head of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India has proposed India
should raise the duty on crude edible oil imports to 10 percent from the
recently revised 2.5 percent.
The initial move is not sufficient to protect the interests of domestic oilseeds
growers and crushers as the duty gap between the crude and refined oils was
small and would promote imports of refined oils into the country.
India raised the base import price of crude palm oil (CPO) by nearly 80% to
$802 per tn as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases and protect
domestic oilseed farmers.
The government also set the base import price for crude soy oil at $1,190 per
tonnes, up from $580 per tn. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at
783,091 tn in December.
Strategy: Refine Soy Oil
Buy NCDEX RefSoya Oil March between 710-715, SL -694, Target 738/743
Buy MCX CPO Feb between 443-448, SL -432, Target - 464 / 468
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
18/20
Sugar
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Sugar futures declined further by 3.1% w-o-w on the back of higher production
and availability in the domestic markets and comparatively lower demand amid
winter season. Higher FRP failed to support upside in the prices. InternationalSugar gained amidst Chinese demand.
India's Oct-Jan sugar output up 3 pct y/y
Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, Indian 13.7
mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3
percent a year ago period.
India sets 2013-14 cane price at 210 rupees per 100 kg
India has raised the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) to Rs 210/ qtl for 2013-14
season, up from 170/qtl in the current season.
India unlikely to consider sugar import tax until Feb end
Government would wait until end-February to get a clear idea about the 2012-13
season sugar output before conceding to industry's demand to raise import tax.
China buys more sugar despite high inventory
At least 1 lakh tn of raw sugar from south and central America are being shipped
to China with a further 150,000 tonnes likely in February with Brazilian physical
premiums rising sharply in the past three to four weeks.
The cost of importing Brazilian raw sugar is currently around 4,930 Yuan a tn inChina, which is 546 Yuan cheaper than domestically produced sugar.
Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to trade with negative bias as higher supplies continue
to pressurize prices considering the weak demand. Also weak international
markets are making exports unviable. market needs very strong signals from the
government as well as global markets to bring an upside rebound in the prices.
Strategy
Sell NCDEX SUGAR March between 3160-3180, SL -3255, Target - 3050 / 3030
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
19/20
Kapas/Cotton
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Cotton futures witnessed a divergent performance in the domestic and international
markets during the last week with NCDEX Kapas declining 1 percent w-o-w whileICE Cotton futures settled 3 percent higher.
In the domestic markets weak demand from the millers and sufficient supplies is
pressurizing prices, while in the international markets prices are gaining mainly on
expectations of higher imports from china expected lower US cotton in the next
season 2013-14. However, ICE Cotton declined towards the week end after
cancellations of Chinese export orders amid higher international prices.
Domestic Cotton Arrivals down 6.5 percent on year as on 20th Jan 2013
Cotton supplies from the new crop in the domestic markets until Jan. 20 fell were
down at 134 lakh bales, down from 144 lakh bales a year earlier.
Cotton Advisory Board revised down production estimates
The Cotton Advisory Board in January has estimated cotton production this season
(Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) at 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in October
at 334 lakh bales. Exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to
253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As
on January 9 this year, nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports.
U.S. all upland cotton weekly export sales
Net Upland sales of 2.13 lakh running bales for the 2012-2013 marketing year weredown 37% from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Outlook
Kapas prices may remain under downside pressure on account of sufficient supplies
in the domestic markets and lower export demand expectations. Also, international
prices which had gained sharply in the last two weeks are due for correction amid
rising certified stocks, and Chinese lunar New year approaching.
Strategy
Sell NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 905-915, SL -942, Target - 865 / 855 Source: Reuters * 2013 figs are as per Reuters survey
7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 4th February, 2013
20/20
Thank You!
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness.
The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any
recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | February 04, 2013
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]