www.ippr.org Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East Keeping the South East moving; the prospects for transport Nathan Sansom Institute of Materials, 22 October
Mar 27, 2015
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Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Keeping the South East moving; the prospects for transport
Nathan Sansom
Institute of Materials, 22 October
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Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Scope of the research
• Mobility trends
• Policy implications
• Solutions
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Cost of transport in Britain
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Ind
ex
, 19
74
= 1
00
Rail
Bus
Motoring
Earnings
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Increasing car ownership
Proportion of households (UK)
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
1985
/198
6
1989
/199
1
1992
/199
4
1995
/199
7
1998
/200
020
0220
03
Two or more cars
One car
No car
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Increased proportion of car travel
Passenger travel by mode as a percentage
0
20
40
60
80
100
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Per
cen
tag
e o
f m
iles
tr
avel
led buses
Cars
Rail
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Increased total travel
Average trips and distance travelled (all modes) GB average 1985-86 to 2003
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
1985
-86
1989
-91
1992
-94
1995
-97
1998
-00
2002
2003
Years
Tri
ps
(n
um
be
r) D
ista
nc
e
(mil
es
) Total distancetravelled per year
Total number oftrips per year
Increasing journey distances
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The South East region
• Affluent; high levels of car ownership
• Relatively densely populated
• Rapidly growing population
• Personal travel patterns broadly comparable with the other regions
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Regional picture
Number of miles travelled by mode by region of residence
02000400060008000
Region
Dis
tan
ce (
mile
s)
Local bus
Surface rail
Car passenger
Car driver
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Commuting times by region
Average time spent comuting by car and rail
-20406080
100120
Tim
e, m
inut
es
Car driver
Rail passenger
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European commuting times
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
Germ
any
Nethe
rland
s UK
EU 15
Avera
ge
Franc
e
Sweden Ita
ly
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f tr
ips 120 + minutes
60-119 minutes
40-59 minutes
20-39 minutes
10-19 minutes
0-9 minutes
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Commuting times & distances in Britain
0
5
10
15
20
25
Years
min
ute
s/m
iles
Average time percommuting trip
Average distance percommuting trip
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Commuting times and distances by age in the South East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Age band
mile
s/m
inu
tes Average trip
time
Average tripdistance
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Levels of car-sharing
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
1985
-86
1989
-91
1992
-94
1995
-97
1998
-00
2002
2003
Years
Pas
sen
ger
s p
er c
ar m
ile
UK average
South East average
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Conclusions
• South East residents travel comparable distances and times to work as GB average
• Higher car ownership correlates with less car-sharing
• UK commuting times similar to those on continent
• Distances travelled to work peak at age 30-40 years
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The implications for policy makers
• Traffic in England as a whole projected to increase by 20-30 per cent from 2000 to 2010 and in the South East also by about 25 per cent
• This will result in more congestion, more unreliable journey times and even more inefficient transport system
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The implications of doing nothing
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Environmental consequences
• Transport emissions make significant contribution to climate change
• Average South East household produces 5 tonnes of CO2 compared to 4.3 UK average, largely transport.
• UK government target to reduce emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 level by 2010
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Solutions
• Demand management
• Improved provision
• Effective governance
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Congestion charging in the South East
• Limited options for local schemes
• Some scope for motorway tolling
• South East would benefit from national scheme
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Forecast effect of national charging on traffic in the South East
Charging scheme Traffic change 2000-2010
None +25%
Revenue neutral +34%
Revenue raising +16%
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Benefits of congestion charging
• Economic benefits
• Broadly progressive
• Revenue for transport
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Funding• Even with reduced demand more investment in transport
is required.• UK historically lags behind European comparators in
transport investment
Investment in infrastructure (UK=100)
1985 1995
Germany 160 213
Sweden 187 202
Italy 145 187
France 147 186
Netherlands 100 125
UK 100 100
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Identifying funding sources
• Transport unlikely to receive more from central pot
Government spending by function
0123456789
10
1985
-619
88-8
919
91-2
1994
-95
1997
-98
2000
-01
2003
-04 e
stim
ated
2006
-7 pl
anned
Year
Per
cen
tag
e o
f G
DP
Health
Educationand SkillsTransport
Health
Educationand SkillsTransport
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Regional distribution
• South East receives levels comparable with other regions
UK identifiable expenditure on transport per head, 1998-9 to 2002-3
020406080
100120140160180200
Region
Ind
ex,
UK
avera
ge =
100
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Potential revenue from national congestion charging by region in 2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
Lond
onSou
th E
ast
Wes
t Mid
land
sEas
t Mid
lands
East
South
Wes
tNor
th W
est
Yorks
hire
& H
umbe
rsid
e
North
£b
n p
er
ye
ar
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Land Value tax
• Capturing private benefit of public benefit
• Most LVT represent modifications to the National Non-Domestic Business rate
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LVT Options
• NNDR levy in specific areas
• BIDS; limited potential
• Tax Increment Finance: most promising method
• Transfer of risk to private investor
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Governance arrangements
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Weak integration
• Weak regional bodies
• Poor spatial and policy integration
• Artificial separation of capital and current spending
• Local plans do not cover travel to work areas
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Solution
• Stronger regional transport and planning body with executive powers
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Key policy recommendations
• Interim steps towards national congestion charging, including local area schemes and motorway tolls
• Revenue from national charging ear-marked for transport in the region
• TIF-type land value tax
• Regional planning and transport authority