Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)Safety Team (CAST)

David Downey

International Aircraft Fire and

Cabin Safety Research Conference

Lisbon, Portugal, November 2004

In the U.S., our focus was set by theIn the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety, White House Commission on Aviation Safety,

and The National Civil Aviation Review and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) Commission (NCARC)

“Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80%”

“Strategic Plan to Improve Safety”“Improve Safety Worldwide”

We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Hull loss accident rate

We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Hull loss accident rate

Airplanes in service

32,495

2021

Departures, Millions

17,357

2002

Boeing 11,693

We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Hull loss accidentsper year

Hull loss accident rate

Airplanes in service

32,495

2021

Departures, Millions

Business as usual

17,357

2002

Boeing 11,693

Our goal

Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%To

tal

LOC

Flt

CFI

T

Fire

/Exp

losi

onR

unw

ay C

ollis

ion

LOC

GN

D

Mid

air

Cre

w In

c

Eng

-UC

EF

Sys

-Com

p

Turb

ulen

ce

Eva

c

Fat

alit

y R

isk

HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &

MAINTENANCE

Carry-on Baggage

Child Restraint

Passenger Interference

CABIN SAFETY

IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS

GENERAL AVIATION

Loss of Control

Weather

Survivability

Aeronautical Decisionmaking

Controlled Flight

Into Terrain Approach and Landing

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Loss of Control

Weather

Uncontained Engine Failures

Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use

Runway Incursions

Safer SkiesSafer Skies

Turbulence

CAST GoalsCAST Goals

• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007

• Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

Industry

Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Safety TeamSafety Team

(CAST)(CAST)

Government

* Representing GE and RR** Observer

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research

NASAICAO**JAATCCNATCA** NTSB**

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingP&W*RAAFSF

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan • Enhancement

effectiveness• Future areas of study

CASTCAST• Data analyses

Joint Safety Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)Analysis Teams (JSAT)

Joint Safety Joint Safety Implementation Implementation

Teams (JSIT)Teams (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Measurement Data

Analysis Team (JIMDAT)Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

CAST Integrated Strategic Safety PlanCAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan

• Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were Combined into CAST

• Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed

• 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements• 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies.• Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007

• Safety Enhancements in place and fully supported by Government and Industry

CAST Safety Plan SpecificsCAST Safety Plan Specifics

CAST Safety PlanCAST Safety Plan

25 Completed Safety Enhancements Safety Culture Maintenance Procedures Flight Crew Training Air Traffic Controller Training Uncontained Engine Failures Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) Standard Operating Procedures Precision Approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (cont.)CAST Safety Plan (cont.)

21 Committed Safety Enhancements Policies and Procedures Aircraft Design Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Runway Incursion Prevention Precision Approaches (additional projects)

8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction

APPROVED PLAN

Completed + Plan (2007

Implementation Level)

Completed + Plan (2020

Implementation Level)

All JSIT Proposed Enhancements

(2020 Implementation

Level)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

Risk Reduction

Total Cost in $ (Millions)

2007 2020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ris

k E

lim

ina

ted

by

Sa

fety

En

ha

nc

em

en

ts

Completed

CAST-050

Safety Plan BenefitsSafety Plan Benefits

Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry Current accident cost per flight is approximately

$76 cycle Implementation of the 46 selected safety

enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle

Safety is morally required and is also good for business

Do

llars

/Flt

. Cy

c

Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents

100

80

60

40

20

0

Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle

73% Risk reduction

Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle

Or

~ $620 Million Dollars/Year

Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels

2002 2007

Cost SavingsCost Savings

Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan

(2007 Implementation Values)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Tota

l

LOC

Flt

CFI

TFi

re/E

xplo

sion

Run

way

Col

lisio

n

LOC

GN

D

Mid

air

Cre

w In

c

Eng

-UC

EF

Sys

-Com

p

Turb

ulen

ce

Eva

c

Po

rtio

n o

f R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded.

All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents

Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide(2007 Implementation Values)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Por

tion

of R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

Safety Metrics ExamplesSafety Metrics ExamplesSafety Enhancement Indicator

1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)

Reduction in MSAW alertsReduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)

4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)

Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches

Continuous reduction in the number of approaches where descent rates exceed 1000 feet per minute in final approach phase, reduction in the percentage of dive and drive approaches and the number of unstabilized approaches

21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)

Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height

23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project

Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates and altitude busts

27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project

Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place

Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems

Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals

International International OutreachOutreach

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldRegional PerspectiveRegional Perspective

Accident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003*

Accidents permillion departures1Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

* 2003 Preliminary Information

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

2.4

Europe0.7

China0.5

Middle East3.1

Africa13.3

Asia1.7

World1.0

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2

C.I.S.1

11/1/03 REG-053a

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldRegional PerspectiveRegional Perspective

Accident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003*

Accidents permillion departures

1Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

* 2003 Preliminary Information

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

2.4

Europe0.7

China0.5

Middle East3.1

Africa13.3

Asia1.7

World1.0

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2

C.I.S.1

27 May 2004 -KLO

CAST46 SEs25 complete21 in work73% reduction

JSSI35 SEs 11 SEs to EASA11 complete62% reduction

PAASTCFIT, ALAR & RISE-23 +

ASETJust forming up

COSCAP’s Asia 12 SEs on plan 60% reduction

COSCAP CISJust starting