1 Jean Laherrere 5 June 2018 Comment on Carbon Tracker “Under The Microscope: Are companies’ scenario analyses meeting investors’ requirements?” 21 May 2018 https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/under-the-microscope/ Carbon Tracker is an independent financial think tank that carries out in-depth analysis on the impact of the energy transition on capital markets and the potential investment in high-cost, carbon-intensive fossil fuels. It was founded in 2010 by Mark Campanale. Carbon Tracker was designated ‘NGO of the year’ at the Business Green Awards 2017. Jeremy Leggett was chairman until 2017. The last report under the microscope studies the performance of eight companies: BP, Chevron, Conoco Phillips, ENI, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total. - IEA scenarios page 4 Carbon Tracker calls IEA New Policies scenario “Business as usual”= BAU, but usual business cannot be new! IEA has a scenario Current Policies, which is the BAU, but dropped by everyone as unrealistic WEO2017 energy demand for oil & gas in 2040 is 1 000Mtoe higher for Current policies than for New policies Carbon Tracker confuses new policies with current policies! Carbon Tracker is reporting wrongly IEA scenarios. WEO2017 Mtoe New policies Current policies Sustainable devel 2040 oil 4830 5477 3306 2040 gas 4356 4682 3458 all 9186 10159 6764
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Jean Laherrere 5 June 2018 Comment on Carbon Tracker “Under The Microscope: Are companies’ scenario analyses meeting investors’ requirements?” 21 May 2018 https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/under-the-microscope/ Carbon Tracker is an independent financial think tank that carries out in-depth analysis on the impact of the energy transition on capital markets and the potential investment in high-cost, carbon-intensive fossil fuels. It was founded in 2010 by Mark Campanale. Carbon Tracker was designated ‘NGO of the year’ at the Business Green Awards 2017. Jeremy Leggett was chairman until 2017. The last report under the microscope studies the performance of eight companies: BP, Chevron, Conoco Phillips, ENI, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total. - IEA scenarios page 4
Carbon Tracker calls IEA New Policies scenario “Business as usual”= BAU, but usual business cannot be new! IEA has a scenario Current Policies, which is the BAU, but dropped by everyone as unrealistic WEO2017 energy demand for oil & gas in 2040 is 1 000Mtoe higher for Current policies than for New policies
Carbon Tracker confuses new policies with current policies! Carbon Tracker is reporting wrongly IEA scenarios.
WEO2017 Mtoe New policies Current policies Sustainable devel2040 oil 4830 5477 33062040 gas 4356 4682 3458all 9186 10159 6764
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-Total primary energy demand page 70
Fig 2 primary energy demand is reported in Mtoe, but in fact it is in quad, as Exxon reports energy demand in quad, ExxonMobil forecasts in quad ExxonMobil 2018 forecasts in quad:
1 quad = 10E15 Btu = 1,055 EJ = 25.2 Mtoe For 2016, primary energy is not 552 Mtoe as indicated in Fig 2, but 552 quads IEA keyworld 2017 primary energy in 2016 = 13 647 Mtoe
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-oil demand forecasts page 71 -gas demand forecasts page 71
Fig 3 a, b & are reported as Mtoe, when it is in quad, as fig 2 Carbon Tracker energy graphs are all wrong, as they confuse quad and Mtoe! They are wrong by a factor 25! Their microscope seems to be out of order! Carbon Tracker shows that they are unreliable on energy graphs and how reliable are their judgments on the eight companies?
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