InformationFlyer Strategic Planning for Agriculture Agri‐Industy Modeling&AnalysisGroup|AIM‐AG May 2013 DepartmentofAgricultural&ResourceEconomics,TheUniversityofTennessee,Knoxville,TN Tennessee AgroForestry InformationforStrategicPlanningforTennesseeAgriculture PreparedbyUniversityofTennesseeAgriculturalModeling&AnalysisGroup,Drs.KimJensen([email protected])andBurtonC.English([email protected]),andMr.JameyMenard([email protected]),DepartmentofAgricultural&ResourceEconomics
35
Embed
Combined Slide Show Condensed Version B€¦ · • 1.2 million acres were in pasture that used to be in crops. • Nearly 1/2 million acres are cropland that is idled. Land Use,
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Tennessee AgroForestry
Information for Strategic Planning for Tennessee Agriculture
Prepared by University of Tennessee Agricultural Modeling & Analysis Group, Drs. Kim Jensen ([email protected]) and Burton C. English ([email protected]), and Mr. Jamey Menard ([email protected]), Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Tennessee AgroForestry
AIM‐AG was established in 1998 as part of the Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Agricultural Experiment Station. The mission of AIM‐AG is to assess and project the impacts of agri‐industry development on the Tennessee economy and to analyze market opportunities for economically efficient agri‐industry development within the state. <http://aimag.ag.utk.edu/>
Objective‐To provide agroforestry industry information and market analysis that will assist the strategic planning process to guide future growth of the industry in the state of Tennessee.
Information provided in the Flyers includes: a) A comparison of basic agricultural information (market value of crops/livestock, land use, yields
per acre, input use, and market access indicators) between Tennessee and other neighbors within the region.
b) A comparison of basic food and fiber products manufacturing information (value of shipments, location quotients) between Tennessee and other neighbors within the region.
c) Economic impacts from both primary and secondary agriculture and forestry for Tennessee, including multiplier measures.
d) Trends in production and comparison with our neighbors for the major crop and livestock subsectors.
e) Comparison of Tennessee with our neighbors across rural demographics including population, income, and education, as well as farmer demographics.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
The purpose of this information is to foster strategic planning discussion about how Tennessee’s ag& forestry base compares with its neighbors.
First, an overview of the state’s farm product sales and net farm income compared with our neighbors is presented.
Second, more detailed information comparing specific commodities is presented.
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Food, Beverage, and Tobacco
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 9
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Textiles, Apparel, and Leather
∙ Tennessee’s growth rate in textile mills manufacturing shipments between 2004 and 2011 declined an average of 3.8%, textile product mills manufacturing shipments declined an average of 4.1%, while apparel shipments decline an average of 9.1% and leather products an average of 14.7%.
Avg. Annual Growth in Textile Mills Shipments, 2004‐2011
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 10
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Sawmilling
• 2011 TN shipments from sawmills and wood preservation facilities were valued at $331.7 million.
• Top three states having the largest value of shipments for sawmills & wood preservation are AL, GA, and VA.
• Tennessee ranks 9th for value of shipments
Sawmills & Wood Preservation (NAICS 3211) Value of Shipments ($1,000)Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 11
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Pulp and Paper
• In 2011, the value of pulp, paper, & paperboard shipments from Tennessee was $2.5 billion.
• The top three states having the largest value of shipments for pulp, paper, & paperboard mills are AL, GA, and SC.
• Of the surrounding states for 2011, Tennessee ranks 4th for value of shipments, exceeding AR, KY, MS, NC, and VA.
Pulp, Paper, & Paperboard Mills (NAICS 3221) Value of Shipments ($1,000)Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 12
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Furniture
• In 2011, the value of shipments of furniture & related products was $1.3 billion.
• For 2011, the top three states having the largest value of shipments for furniture & related products are NC, MS, and GA.
• Of the surrounding states for 2011, Tennessee ranks 6th for value of shipments, exceeding Missouri’s, Arkansas’, S. Carolina’s and Kentucky’s shipment values.
Furniture & Related Products (NAICS 337) Value of Shipments ($1,000)
Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia
($1,000) Furniture and Related Products Value of Shipments, 2004‐2011
AL AR GA KY MO MS NC SC TN VA
1.7%
‐4.9%‐2.3%
‐3.9%
‐0.9%
‐8.4%
‐3.6%
8.3%
‐7.4%‐5.1%
‐2.6%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%AL AR GA KY MS MO NC SC TN VA Avg
Avg. Annual Growth in Furniture & Related Prod. Shipments, 2004‐2011
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 13
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Manufacturing Overview
*LQ = (Emp(j,k)/Emp(j))/(Emp(k)/Emp), where j = state and k = industry. Generally, LQ>1 suggests relative "comparative advantage" with respect to skilled labor pool for that industry. These industries are shaded in orange.
2009 and 2011 average only 1.3% for economy and 0.1% for agro‐forestry.
For agroforestry between 2000 and 2011, agriculture had the largest average growth at 10.9% per year, followed by food, fiber, and forest products manufacturing at 7.9%, and forestry at 2.0%.
Tennessee Total Industrial Output (TIO) and Employment, 2011: AgroForestry & State
AgroForestry Agriculture Forestry
Food, Fiber, & Forest Products
ManufacturingTotal Tennessee
EconomyAgroForestry % of Total Economy
TIO ($1,000) Direct $43,609 $31,061 $12,548 $32,364 $499,904 8.70%Total $66,359 $46,712 $19,647 $48,797 13.30%
AgroForestry directly contributed $43.6 billion to the Tennessee economy in 2011, or about 8.7% of the overall economy. When including multiplier effects, the contribution was about $66.3 billion. This represents about 13.3% of the overall economy. AgroForestry contributed 176,282 jobs directly, and with multiplier effects this increased to 337,880 jobs. AgroForestry employs about 5% of the jobs directly and 9.6% of the jobs with multiplier effects.
Economic Impacts from AgroForestry
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 15
Agricultural inputs $1.7 billion in direct economic activity.
With multiplier effects, economic impacts are $2.6 billion.
Lawn and garden equipment and pesticide and other agricultural chemicals comprise over 68% of the direct economic activity from agricultural input supply industries.
Commercial logging and forestry provide $174.8 million directly and $293.1 million with multiplier effects.
Logging comprises about 92% of primary forestry economic activity.
Percent of Direct TIO from Agricultural Inputs, 2011
34%
34%
10%
9%7% 6%
Lawn & Garden Equipment Manuf
Pesticide & Other Ag Chemical Manuf
Farm Machinery & Equipment Manuf
Ag/Forestry Support Activities
Lime & Gypsum Product Manuf
Fertilizer Manuf
Percent of Direct TIO from Forestry Inputs, 2011
92%
8%
Commercial Logging
Forestry, Forest Products, & Timber Tract Production
Estimated Economic Impacts from Agricultural Inputs, 2011 (1,000 $)
TIO Employment (Jobs)Direct Multiplier Total Direct Multiplier Total
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 16
Largest direct economic activity cattle ranching and farming ($586.3 million), grain farming ($537.4 million), poultry and egg production ($523.8 million), oilseed farming ($461.3 million), cotton farming ($401.1 million), other crop farming ($337.1 million), greenhouse/ nursery ($316.7 million), and dairy cattle and milk production ($179.1 million).
Largest number of employees grain farming (23,391), oilseed farming (13,182), cattle ranching and farming (10,035), animal production (except cattle/poultry/eggs) (6,823), greenhouse/nursery (5,270), cotton farming (4,446), tobacco farming (3,150), and dairy cattle and milk production (2,854).
For each job created in the industry,
‐Poultry and egg production: .84 additional jobs
‐Cattle ranching & farming: .57 additional jobs
‐Other crop farming: .60 additional jobs
‐Cotton farming: .57 additional jobs
are created in other industries through multiplier effects.
Estimated Economic Impacts from Agriculture, 2011 (1,000 $)
TIO Employment (Jobs)
Direct Multiplier Total% of Total Direct Multiplier Total
Economic Impacts from Food & Fiber Products Manufacturing
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 19
Food and fiber products manufacturing $25.6 billion in direct economic activity and $38.4 in total economic activity.
Employs 50,000 directly and over 133,000 when including multiplier effects.
Within the state, food and fiber manufacturing is very diverse, with only poultry processing holding over a 10% share of direct economic activity.
Poultry processing is followed by soft drinks, tobacco, wet corn milling, and dog and cat food manufacturing in terms of direct economic activity.
Largest employment are poultry (7,031), animal slaughter and processing (4,408), bread and bakery products (3,866), and soft drinks (3,477).
Largest employment multipliers include wet corn milling (10.2), fats and oils refining (8.6), flour milling (5.8), and dog & cat food manufacturing (5.2).
Economic Impacts from Food & Fiber Products Manuf, Contd.
10.1%
9.6%
8.2%
5.4%
5.2%5.2%
5.1%4.7%4.0%3.9%
3.4%3.3%
3.3%3.0%2.7%2.0%
20.9%
Share of Direct Economic Activity from Food & Fiber Prod. Manuf.
• 48% of direct TIO from forest products manufacturing are derived from 4 industries: a) paperboard container manufacturing, b) upholstered furniture manufacturing, c) coated and laminated paper manufacturing, and d) wood windows, doors, & millwork.
• The largest employment is in paperboard container manufacturing (5,054), followed by upholstered furniture manufacturing (3,954), wood windows & doors & millwork manuf (2,950), and coated & laminated paper, packaging paper & plastics film manuf (1,586).
Economic Impacts from Forest Prod. Manufacturing
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
• 990,000 head of beef cows plus 50,000 head of dairy consumed hay produced on 1.8 million acres.
• Hay production 3.5 million tons.
• Average yield of slightly above 2 tons/acre.
• Avg, annual hay prices less than $60/ton between 1990 and 2005. However, since 2005, hay price greater than $70/ton.
• At 2.5 tons/acre, the breakeven cost of hay production according to TN Extension budgets is $120/ton for cool season grasses. If a clover stand is used in place of nitrogen, the breakeven price is $102/ton assuming the same 2.5 ton/acre yield.
Tennessee Crop Production: Hay
Page 21
Hay is Produced Across the State
TNNC
MOVA
AR
0
1
1
2
2
3
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Million Acres
Tennessee
Tennessee
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Tons/Acre
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$/to
n
Hay Yields (Excludes Alfalfa) (2011)(tons/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
1.0 ‐ 1.7
1.8 ‐ 2.2
2.3 ‐ 2.6
2.7 ‐ 3.2
3.3 ‐ 4.5
Hay Yield, 1990‐2012, Tennessee Hay Price, 1990‐2012, Tennessee
Hay Acres, 1990‐2012, Tennessee
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 22
• About 90% of the soybeans required for production processes in the state were imported.
• On the 1.23 million acres, 46.7 million bushels were produced with sales of nearly $682.4 million in 2012.
• Late 1970’s and early 80’s, soybean production was around 70 million bushels with over 2.6 million acres planted. In 2012, AR, KY, MS, MO, and NC planted more soybean acreage than TN.
• 2012 yield per acre 38 bushels. Average yield in 2011 was 32 bushels/acre. Highest recorded occurred in 2009 at 45 bushels per acre.
Tennessee Crop Production: Oilseeds
TNNCAR
Soybean Yields (2011)(bushels/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
19.0 ‐ 20.0
20.1 ‐ 30.0
30.1 ‐ 40.0
40.1 ‐ 55.4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Thousand Harvested
Acres
Tennessee
Tennessee
Harvested Acreage in soy‐beans, 1924‐2012, Tennessee
Location of Soybean Production, 2011
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 23
Location of Corn Production, 2011
Source: NASS Crop Layer
• Of the 2012 TN 960,000 acres planted, 81.6 million bushels were produced with sales near $600 million.
• Over 90% of the grains required for production processes in the state are imported.
• Grains grown in TN in order of acreage include corn, wheat, sorghum, oats, and barley.
• Corn production peaked with nearly 4 million acres planted to corn in early part of last century.
• Average corn yield per planted acre was 85 bushels, the lowest level since 1993 due to drought conditions. Average yield in 2011 was 131 bushels per acre. Highest recorded state average yield occurred in 2009 at 143 bushels per acre.
• Of the states that border TN only MO and KY plant more corn than TN.
Tennessee Crop Production: Corn
TNNCAR
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1866
1870
1874
1878
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Thou
sand
Harvested
Acres
Tennessee
Harvested Acreage in Corn, 1866‐2012, Tennessee
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tennessee Corn Yield, 1990‐2012
Corn Yields (2011)(bushels/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
78.3 ‐ 80.0
80.1 ‐ 120.0
120.1 ‐ 160.0
160.1 ‐ 234.2
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 24
Tennessee Crop Production: Cotton
Location of Cotton Production, 2011
Source: NASS
TNNCAR
Cotton Yields (2011)(bales/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
690 ‐ 700
701 ‐ 1,000
1,001 ‐ 1,300
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1866
1870
1874
1878
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Thou
sand
Harvested
Acres
Tennessee
Tennessee
Harvested Acreage in Co on, 1866‐2012, Tennessee
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
poun
ds/a
cre
Tennessee Co on Yield, 1990‐2012
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
ALABAMA
ARKANSAS
GEORGIA
MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI
NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CAROLINA
TENNESSEE
VIRGINIA
Thousands bales
Co on Produc on, 2012, Ten‐nessee
• TN 2011 cotton receipts $401.1 million.
• Over 46% of the cotton required for production processes in the state is imported.
• Cotton acreage‐peaked in the 1930’s with close to 1.2 million acres harvested; 2006 cotton acreage climbed from 300,000 in the 90’s to 695,000; 2010‐2012 time period cotton acreage averaged 417,000 acres; 2012 harvested acres 375,000.
• Of the states that border TN, GA, AR, MS, NC, and AL plant more cotton than TN.
• Average cotton yield in TN per planted acre was 934 pounds/acre in 2012. During the 2000‐2012 time period, cotton production ranged from a low of 565 pounds/acre in 2007 to a high of 945 in 2006.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 25
Tennessee Crop Production: Nursery & Greenhouse
• Several counties where the share of specialty crops such as nursery, greenhouse, vegetables, and tree nuts exceed 20%.
• 2007 TN greenhouse area was estimated at 4.6 million sq. feet , an increase of 35% over a ten year period. During that same time frame, AL, AR, GA, NC, and SC showed decreases.
• In 2007, Tennessee had the most open nursery acreage of all the states (33,485 acres); 5% increase above the 1997 level but the lowest increase in acreage among the comparison states.
• ERS forecasts specialty crop farm businesses (fruits, vegetables, and nursery/greenhouse) to experience a decline in average net farm income of more than 15 percent in 2013.
• While crop receipts are forecasted to remain the same, expenses are projected to increase. Labor expenses, 1/3 of all cash expenses, are forecast to increase 11% due to increasing wages and output.
MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA
TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Beef Cattle (2011)(head)
None or Data Not Disclosed
400 ‐ 5,000
5,001 ‐ 15,000
15,001 ‐ 30,000
30,001 ‐ 58,000
Tennessee Beef, by County, 2007
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!Memphis
Jackson
Nashville
Knoxville
Manchester
Union City
Chattanooga
Johnson City
Giles
Shelby
Dyer
Scott
Knox
WaynePolk
Sevier
HenryObion
Fayette
Maury
CarrollGibson
Greene
Blount
Hardin
Wilson
Monroe
Lincoln
Cocke
Perry
Sumner
Hickman
MarionFranklin
Tipton
Weakley
Rhea
Coffee
Morgan
Lawrence
Stewart
McNairy
Madison
Dickson
White
HamiltonHardeman
Roane
Clay
Fentress
Bedford
Warren
Carter
Hawkins
Davidson
Haywood
Cumberland
Rutherford
Sullivan
Smith
OvertonCampbell
Bledsoe
Williamson
Putnam
McMinnLewis
Grundy
Robertson
Humphreys
Claiborne
Henderson
DeKalb
Macon
Lauderdale
Bradley
Montgomery
JacksonUnion
Chester
JeffersonBenton
Decatur
Lake
Marshall
Johnson
Anderson
Meigs
Grainger
LoudonCannon
Unicoi
Crockett
CheathamWashington
Pickett Hancock
Houston
Van Buren
Sequatchie
Hamblen
Moore
Trousdale
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10
11
1213
14
15
16
17
1819
Federally Inspected Slaughter Facili es
• 2011 direct output from cattle ranching and farming $586 million.
• 2011 TN farmers sold 325,000 head.
• 2011 price received by producers (receipts/production) was $0.97/pound.
• Over past 5 years, the average price received $0.83/pound; over last 22 years the average price $0.71/pound (nominal dollars). Other states received higher prices in part because they finished a larger percentage of their cattle.
• For a steer purchased at $516 (450 pounds) and feed on fescue, the breakeven price is $1.10/pound assuming no return for land or management (2007$).
• 19 federally inspected slaughter facilities scattered across the state.
• About 48.3% of the dollar value of input needs for animal slaughtering, rendering, & processing are met from out of state.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 27
Tennessee Livestock Production: Dairy
Value of production less total costs, 2011 = $20.92/cwt—$34.78/cwt= ‐$13.96/cwt
Purchased feedCapital recovery of machinery and equipmentOpportunity cost of unpaid laborHomegrown harvested feedHired laborFuel, lube, and electricityRepairsVeterinary and medicineCustom servicesGeneral farm overheadTaxes and insuranceGrazed feedMarketingBedding and litterOpportunity cost of land (rental rate)Interest on operating capitalOther operating costs
Tennessee Dairy Operating Cost Shares, 2011
TN milk production has fallen over time.
Milk production per cow has risen over time, topping 16,000 pounds per year per cow by 2012.
The current number of licensed dairy farms is between 400 and 450 and has declined steadily over time.
Dairy cattle inventory is highest in northeast Tennessee and the Tennessee Valley, with some inventory also in middle Tennessee.
TN is ranked 6th regionally in terms of value of production.
Purchased feed, capital recovery, opportunity cost of unpaid labor, homegrown feed, and hired labor constitute the largest cost shares.
In 2011, the total costs were estimated to be greater than value of production at ‐$13/96/cwt.
For fluid milk and butter manuf., the state imports from out of state about 56.7% of the value of its input needs, 66.1% for cheese, 57.1% for dried and condensed milk, and 51.5% for ice cream and frozen desserts.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 28
Tennessee Livestock Production: Pork
Hog, Barrow, and Gilt Prices $/cwt, 2010, Average 2006‐2010, by State
State 2010 5 year averageAlabama $53.10 $45.08
Arkansas $50.30 $44.66 Georgia $55.60 $49.52
Kentucky $54.80 $46.12 Mississippi $51.00 $44.26 Missouri $49.10 $42.18 North Carolina $54.80 $48.06 South Carolina $55.20 $48.34
Tennessee $54.00 $45.80
Virginia $53.00 $46.60
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Thousands
ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Hogs Sold, by Head and Selected State, 1988‐2011
Hogs (2007)(head)
Data Not Disclosed
None
6 ‐ 30,000
30,001 ‐ 60,000
60,001 ‐ 200,000
Tennessee Hog Production, 2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
($/cwt
)/($/bu
)
Year
Hog to Corn Price Ratio, Tennessee, 1970‐2011
December Hog Inventory, Tennessee, 1990‐2011
1990 TN producers sold nearly 1.5 million head of hogs, barrows, and gilts. By 2011 this decreased to 390,000 head.
December inventory declined from a high of 670,000 head in 1991 to the current level of 150,000 head.
2011 price received by producers (receipts/ production) $54.00/cwt. Over the past 5 years, average price received $45.80/cwt (nominal dollars). Other states had similar price levels. Georgia leads the region with a 5 year average of nearly $50/cwt and MO has the lowest price in the study region.
2011 TN cash receipts for hog and pig production $510 million.
Iowa Extension is forecasting a $20 loss per hog this year as a result of feed costs.
2011 TN hog to corn price ratio for 2011 $54/cwt÷ $6.56/bushel = 8.23.
2007 140,000 head; 36,000 in Weakly County and over 30,000 in Henry County. Lawrence, Franklin, Macon, and Gibson Counties had between 3 and 8 thousand head.
TN farms with hogs has declined. In 1980, 33,000 farms that sold hogs. In 2007 there were 1,500. Over the past decade the number of farms fluctuated between 1,700 and 1,100.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 29
Tennessee Livestock Production: Poultry
Selected Poultry Products by State, 2002 & 2007Layers Pullets Broilers
In 2007, GA leading state in numbers of layers and broilers and was second to AR for pullets. TN last for the numbers of layers, pullets, and broilers.
For 2011, the states having the largest turkey production NC, AR, MO, VA, and SC. For the five year period 2007 to 2011, the states with the largest average turkey production NC, MO, AR, VA and SC.
The average federally inspected slaughtering of young chickens for Tennessee between 2001 and 2012 was 262.7 million head. Georgia was the largest (1,250.6) head followed by AR (1,085.9) and AL (1,047.5). Tennessee was ranked last for the surrounding states evaluated.
2011 TN cash receipts for broilers, eggs, and farm chickens $461.1 million, $59.7 million, and $2.1 million, respectively.
For poultry processing, nearly 60% of the value of inputs purchased were from out of state sources.
MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Federally Inspected Young Chickens Slaughtered, Selected States,
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 30
Tennessee Livestock Production: Sheep
Sheep (Excl Lambs) Prices Received ($/cwt), 2010, Average 2006‐2010, by State State 2010 5 year average Kentucky $55.30 $41.44 Missouri $52.40 $37.66 North Carolina $50.00 $40.60 Tennessee $50.00 $38.60 Virginia $51.30 $39.56
Wool Produc on (Pounds), 2012, Average 2008‐2012, by State
State 2012 5 year average Kentucky 95,000 83,000 Missouri 270,000 335,000 North Carolina 35,000 37,400 Tennessee 100,000 102,000 Virginia 200,000 188,000
Sheep & Lambs (2007)(head)
Data Not Disclosed
None
16 ‐ 750
751 ‐ 1,500
1,501 ‐ 3,000
3,001 ‐ 5,000
Tennessee Sheep/Lambs Production, 2007
GilesShelby
DyerKnox
Scott
Wayne
Polk
Sevier
Henry
Fayette
Maury
Obion
Carroll
Hardin
Gibson
Blount
GreeneWilson
Monroe
Lincoln
Cocke
Perry
Sumner
Marion
Hickman
Franklin
TiptonRhea
Weakley
Morgan
Coffee
LawrenceMcNairy
Stewart
Madison
HamiltonHardeman
Dickson
White
Clay
Roane
Warren
Fentress
Bedford
Carter
Hawkins
Davidson
Haywood
CumberlandRutherford
Sullivan
SmithOverton
Campbell
Williamson
Putnam
McMinnLewis
Grundy
Humphreys
Robertson Claiborne
Henderson
DeKalb
Macon
Lauderdale
Bradley
Montgomery
JacksonUnion
JeffersonBenton
BledsoeDecatur
Lake
MarshallChester
Johnson
Meigs
Anderson
Grainger
LoudonCannon
Unicoi
Crockett
Cheatham Washington
Pickett Hancock
Houston
Van Buren
Sequatchie
Hamblen
Moore
Trousdale
Wool Production (2007)(Pounds)
Data Not DisclosedNone1 ‐ 500501 ‐ 1,000
1,001 ‐ 1,5001,501 ‐ 2,000> 2,000
Pounds of Wool Produced on Sheep/Lamb Farms in Tennessee by County, 2007
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Thou
sand
s
ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Sheep & Lamb Inventory, Head and Selected States, 1920‐2011 From 1980 to 2007, number of farms with sheep in the state increased 188.9 percent.
2010 TN sheep and lamb production ranked 30th in the U.S. and ranked second in the nation in percentage growth.
Since 1984 TN sheep prices (excludes lambs) increased an average of 5.4 percent per year.
2007 sheep and lamb numbers estimated at 29,751 in TN with Sullivan County having the largest number (1,904) followed by Greene (1,523), Washington (1,431), Wilson (1,137), and Giles (983) Counties.
2007 TN pound s wool produced 100,029. Largest wool producing counties Sullivan (10,454 pounds), followed by Greene (7,194 pounds), Jefferson (4,604 pounds), Lincoln (3,951 pounds), and Wilson (3,734 pounds)
2011 TN cash receipts for sheep and lamb production for 2010 totaled close to $2.5 million.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
State Populations for 2011, 30‐Year Change in Population, and Proportion in Rural Counties
State Population 30 Year ChangeProportion in Rural Counties
• Tennessee 4th most populous state with 6.4 million residents in 2011.
• Between 1980 and 2011, TN population grew by 139.5%, 5th fastest growing state. GA fastest (179.7%) while MS slowest (118.2%) increase in population.
• Tennessee 4th lowest percentage of its population living in rural counties with a rural population of 26.4%. MS greatest (54.8%), VA smallest (13.7%).
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
• 2011 TN 3rd highest state‐level per capita income of region ($36,568).
• Because of a number of northern counties in VA lie within the Washington, DC metropolitan area, Virginia’s state‐level per capita income is $9,540 above MO, the state with the next highest income among the ten.
• VA is the least rural state in the study.
• Excluding VA, the 2011 state‐level per capita income of the remaining nine states fall within a $5,968 range.
• At $29,376, TN 2011 per capita income for rural counties is 3rd from the smallest.
• Gap between 2011 per capita income in rural and urban counties in TN $9,769.
• 2011 TN rural per capita income is 75 percent of the urban per capita income.
• While the range of the 2011 state‐level urban per capita income among the ten states is $14,048, the range for rural counties is much smaller at $3,968.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
• Tennessee 4th lowest level of poverty in region (21.3%).
• Though Tennessee’s per capita income for rural counties was 3rd from lowest among the ten states, that low level of income was not fully reflected in the state’s rural poverty rate.
• Range of poverty rates among the states was 17.5%‐25.9%.
• Tennessee’s rate was close in range with AR and AL.
• Tennessee 3rd lowest level of food insecure households for the 2009‐2011 period and appears to be reflective of the relatively low rural poverty rate.
• In every state except MO, over 1/5 of adults 25 and over lacked a high school education. Tennessee was in the middle of the pack at 5th from the lowest percentage of adults who are without a high school education.
• Because the poll of high school graduates in any year is small relative to the pool of adults 25 and over it will take a sustained effort in rural education to bring Tennessee’s percentage of adults not graduating from high school down to the level of Missouri.
• Tennessee ranked lowest among the ten states in the percentage of residents of rural counties who had graduated from college.
• In contrast, Tennessee ranks 5thhighest in the percentage of urban residents with a college degree. That would suggest that job opportunities for Tennessee’s college graduates are limited, relative to the other nine states.
Page 34
Demographics: Education Level
College Graduates, 2007‐2011 AverageState Rural Urban
• The average age of TN farmers according to the 2007 Census was 55.4 years, in the mid‐range for the region. SC oldest (56.2 years), and AR and KY youngest (54.3 years).
• Tennessee had the next to lowest percent of farmers indicating farming as their principal occupation at 36.4%. Only SC was lower and NC was highest.
• The low percentage of TN farmers indicating farming as their principal occupation is likely related to TN farm size‐‐most farms < $20,000 in sales. As seen green bar in the graph, 30% of farm sales were held by farms with $500,000 or more.