Colorado's Climate Colorado's Climate - - Then and Now Then and Now Nolan Doesken Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department Presented to Channel 7News, Colorado Climate Change Seminar, April 12, 2006, Denver, CO Prepared by Odie Bliss with assistance of Wendy Ryan, Daniel Dennison, and Peter Rogers Photo by Lynn Kral
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Colorado's Climate Colorado's Climate --Then and NowThen and Now
Nolan DoeskenNolan DoeskenColorado Climate CenterAtmospheric Science Department
Presented to Channel 7News, Colorado Climate Change Seminar, April 12, 2006, Denver, CO
Prepared by Odie Bliss with assistance of Wendy Ryan, Daniel Dennison, and Peter Rogers Photo by Lynn Kral
Perspectives on Colorado’s Climate
We have a lot of weather data!
Kirk, Colo, CSU CoAgMet weather
http://www.coagmet.com
April 2005-2006
Instrumental weather observations date back to the late 1800s
Las Animas Annual Precipitation(1867-2005)
0
5
10
15
20
2518
65
1875
1885
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
UTAH 1930
We are indebted to NWS for maintaining long-term weather stations
Army Signal Service (began 1870-1891)Weather Bureau (1890-1969) National Weather Service (1970-present)
Climate is variable
Colorado Average Annual Precipitation
Fort Collins Historic Weather Station –Continuous observations from 1889 to present
Fort Collins Yearly Precipitation
25.24
28.4327.57
7.917.347.857.13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
ly P
reci
pita
tion
(inch
es)
Fort Collins Daily Accumulated Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es) WY1999
WY2002
Average
A few storms contribute a large fraction of our precipitation
Fort Collins Daily Accumulated Precipitation for WY2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepPr
ecip
itatio
n (in
ches
)
Fort Collins Flood July 1997
Precipitation varies with the seasonsWater Year Average (1971-2000) Precipitation for Selected Stations
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
Grand Junction Glenwood Spr Vail Pass Loveland Pass Denver Limon
Quiz!What month is the wettest month of the year (on average) for northeastern Colorado AND the driest month of the year for southwestern Colorado?
Photo by Henry Reges
Some climate elements are more consistent than others
Akron 4E Temperature
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Summer Average High Temperatures
Summer Average Low Temperatures
Winter Average Low Temperatures
Winter Average High Temperatures
And one more thing to know, the data are good but not great….
MMTSMMTS
Photos by Christopher Davey
This is quickly revealed when we try to explore long-term changes
Dillon Annual (Jan-Dec) Precipitation Totals
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
So! Based on our available data, can we tell if our climate is changing?
Nolan in funky glasses
Photo by Henry Reges
First, let’s look at temperaturesOf all the state’s long-term weather stations, very few have uninterrupted, consistent data for analyzing climate trends.
Cooperative Weather Stations
in Colorado
Fort Collins Temperatures Fort Collins Average Temperatures from 1889 to 2005
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
YEAR
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average High Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average Low Temperature
Fort Collins TemperaturesFort Collins Average Temperatures from 1889 to 2005
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
YEAR
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average High Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average Low Temperature
Akron TemperaturesAkron Average Temperatures (from 1918-2005)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average High Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average Low Temperature
Akron TemperaturesAkron Average Temperatures (from 1918-2005)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average High Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average Low Temperature
Del Norte TemperaturesDel Norte Monthy Average Temperatures (1920-2005)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average Low Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average High Temperature
Del Norte TemperaturesDel Norte Monthy Average Temperatures (1920-2005)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average Low Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average High Temperature
Montrose TemperaturesMontrose 2 Average Monthly Temperatures (1911-2005)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average Low Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average High Temperature
Montrose TemperaturesMontrose 2 Average Monthly Temperatures (1911-2005)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Average Low Temperature
Mean Temperature
Average High Temperature
What about Denver?!?
Denver (combined)Denver (all 3 stations)
Monthly Average Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
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1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Tem
pera
ture
(deg
F)
Denver City Denver WSFO Denver Intl AP
Frost Free Days (Growing Season)
Cheyenne WellsFrost Free Days
Cheyenne Wells, CO Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
Rocky FordFrost Free Days
Rocky Ford 2SE Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
AkronFrost Free Days
Akron 4E Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
Fort CollinsFrost Free Days
Fort Collins, CO Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
Del NorteFrost Free Days
Del Norte Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
Cochetopa CreekFrost Free Days
Cochetopa Creek, CO Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
MontroseFrost Free Days
Montrose #2 Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
Grand Junction 6ESEFrost Free Days
Grand Junction 6ESE Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
DillonFrost Free Days
Dillon 1E Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
Evaporation
Bonny Dam Evaporation
Bonny Dam May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
John Martin Dan EvaporationJohn Martin Dam
May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
Pueblo Evaporation
Pueblo WSO May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
*
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
Grand JunctionGrand Junction
May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
PrecipitationPhoto by Wendy Ryan
Akron PrecipitationAkron 4E Annual (Jan-Dec) Precipitation