Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook...2020/05/12  · Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director May 12, 2020 The speed of the economic

Colorado Economic and Fiscal OutlookLauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director

May 12, 2020

The speed of the economic contraction is unprecedented and the path to recovery

remains uncertain

Job Loss Relative to Peak Employment

Unemployment Claims by County through April 25th

Average UI Claim Rate

Eastern 9.2%

Front Range 11.5%

Mountain 21.6%

Southern 11.3%

Western 17.4%

Unemployment hits industries with lower wage earners

What a recovery could look like

General Fund revenue forecasts were revised significantly downward from March

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Estimated Revenue Impacts of CARES Act’s Tax Provisions

FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22

Individual Income Tax $75 million $222 million $41 million

Corporate Income Tax $11 million $50 million $27 million

Declining revenues are driving a significant budget shortfall

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Questions?

Appendix

Table 1: Colorado Economic Variables-History & Forecast

Table 2: National Economic Variables-History & Forecast

Table 3: General Fund Revenue Estimates by Tax Category

Table 4: General Fund Overview

Table 5: General Fund & State Education Fund Overview

Table 6: Cash Fund Revenue Subject to TABOR

Table 7: TABOR and the Referendum C Revenue Limit