BETTING MARCH MADNESS Pure genius advice from OffshoreInsiders.com
Jan 14, 2015
BETTING MARCH MADNESS
Pure genius advice from OffshoreInsiders.com
BASKETBALLHANDICAPPER
Winning in March is not just about the NCAA Tournament.
The NIT and now especially the uber consolation
tournaments CIT, and CBI actually have offered countless
motivational discrepancies that even the minor bowls don’t
present with such frequency.
However a “March of Dimes” must begin with triumph in
the conference tournaments.
Here is an inventory of parameters to look for:
Dictionary: Very high on our list of Golden Rules is how a neutral
game is exactly that. It is neither a home game nor a road game for
either team. Ever time I hear a tout spout to weigh road performance
more heavily when handicapping a neutral court game, I realize there
will always be suckers around to finance the bookmakers for us.
“Home court advantage” is accurately named. It is more often a home
crowd can kick start the home team than rattle the road squad. That
being said, as teams are becoming more freshmen laden, “road court
disadvantage” is more of a factor in recent years, especially at the
beginning of the season.
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However, that is part of the point. Young teams have the highest
upside and improve as the year goes on, especially on the road.
Veteran teams are generally good road bets early, but just as their
value rises their road prowess reaches the point of diminishing
return.
So weighing road splits more heavily in March is not only a myth
but often the polar opposite of reality as home/road splits is
generally less predominant as the season progresses. Neutral does
not equal road and the truth grows deeper as the season does.
BRACKET PICKS
However neutral does not always mean completely neutral:
One of the variables that we muse upon greater in recent years is
how far each team travels for their “neutral” games. This is actually
true for road games in all sports, but overlooked even more for
neutral.
Travel is the often-unnoticed aspect of playing away from home. It’s
not just about dealing with enemy crowds. Though this has proven to
be most affective in college bowl games, it is always a strong
component to conference and NCAA Tournament handicapping.
SPORTS ODDS
And not all goes out the window after the first round, even
if round two or three is a meeting of two squads who each
traveled further than the team they conquered the day(s)
before.
Travel can have a cumulative effect. It certainly does not
top our list of metrics, so one should neither be
disillusioned by first day results at a location nor ignore the
underappreciated consideration.
BETS
New beginnings: So often you hear us quote the famed Yogi-ism of “90
percent of the game is half-mental.” Teams that underachieved especially late
in the year recurrently mentally regroup come conference single elimination
time. It’s time to get those preseason coaches polls and contrast them to the
regular season final standings. If season ending injuries or players being kicked
off the team are not rationale for the major divergence, bet the differentiation.
Bubble favorites: Teams that need an impressive run in the conference
playoffs leave nothing to chance against the inferior teams. We have found no
real value going for or against “bubble” dogs, but actually the more points the
capricious team is laying, the stronger stake they are.
NCB LOCKS
Read the previous day’s boxscores, literally “in-depth:” Every now and
then the obvious is true. When teams are playing two, three or even four
consecutive days, depth and how many minutes their key players have played is
inestimable enlightenment. Nagging injuries are magnified. Most of the year, the
Adrian Barbeau Theory wins: top-heavy squads are the best to bet on. In
conference tournaments, we analyze the depth of each squad.
Yes this even applies to large favorites in first round games. Such squads are
focused on the bigger picture of winning their tournament and are much more
likely to ration their star player minutes if the opportunity arises. Hence fading
big favorites with thin benches may be fool’s gold during most regular season
situations, it gains prominence in the conference tournaments.
BIG DANCE BETTING
Look Ahead Does Not Always Apply to Both Teams: Though
obviously in games leading up to the championship game, even
the winners of a big upset have to play the next day. However,
lower seeded teams don’t have the luxury of looking ahead.
Again, I will use the term, “big picture.” In most circumstances
the top seeds are more likely to look ahead to what may be
progressively better opponents each round. Pay close attention to
the dynamics of higher seeds, many of whom are vulnerable to
overlook the day one foe.
NO. 1 HANDICAPPER
Recent Play is Bigger Than Ever: One of our Golden
Rules is amplified in conference playoffs and that is when it
comes to weighing recent play, “recent is not defined by X-
number of games, but X-number of days.
Around Christmas, where many teams take long breaks,
how a team played in their previous three games is not
nearly as foretelling as in March when they are playing
three games in three days, four in four, etc.
LOCK TIPS
When a team is in a groove, the sooner they get on the court
the better. Squads in a slump can use off time for mental,
strategical, and physical adjustments and rest. This is where
recent (using the above definition) Margin of Cover (or sweat
barometer) really comes into our handicapping more than ever.
As much as we love the KenPom power ratings and still use
them well into March, they don’t take into account the diverse
intangibles that are unique to conference tournament time.
WHO COVERS
Don’t sleep, surf: In the competition to get your
business, sportsbooks are posting lines earlier and
earlier and in fact are at a disadvantage in that they
can’t use the prescriptions discussed here when
making the line. Hence key overlooked information
comes in the morning papers and on the teams’ own
sites. Sharp information is much more prevalent in
the conference celebrations than the regular season
or even the Big Dance.
JOE DUFFY’S PICKS
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