BASIC INFERENCE statistical Significance the challenges are propose a reasonable hull hypothesis collecting data to support or dismiss darn To assess tle statistical validity of the null hypothesis Rudy best quantity to assess ex Noll hypothesis the average flight time between SFO and JFK is 5 hours or less to betested we will accept or reject The air Let 2 s XI G standard deviation
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BASIC INFERENCE
statisticalSignificancethe challenges are
propose areasonablehullhypothesis
collectingdata tosupportordismiss darn
To assess tle statisticalvalidity of the
null hypothesis Rudybestquantityto
assess
ex Nollhypothesis theaverageflight time
between SFOand JFK is 5 hours or less
to betested we will accept orrejectThe air
Let 2 s XIGstandard deviation
low2 means unlikely bychance
Pick an 2 value predefinedthreshold
Pr Xs x 1H right tail
Pr Xs x 1H left tail
a value is the significance level
The p value ismeasured forestimated
The lo wer th p vchetle moremeaningful the
result will be but really whatmattersis
whether p valueis smaller than a valve
or otherwise
The p wakereflects how surprisingtheresult
way be
CollectData foundthetitle near flighttime islonger that stirs with p wake of 0.01
in theworld whereflight ties are 5hrs or less there's
a 1 chancewe'd see a flight tire of 5.3hrs due
to variability randomness
Zcollectdata frm n s36flights
Orn I Cdata new 5.2 hrs
hypothesismean 55 hrs
data standard deniehu 0.5hrs
Is the evidence to supportnull hypothesis atan alphavalueof a 0.05
Clair Ho s shrDaba t s s 2h r
2s 2s.oo.sk GO 4 24
Ix 0.9918
p G I G 9918 0.01
Since p 22 we REJECT theHo hypothesis
Rene's enouphevidencetosupport downthat
flight ties between SFO JFK one
greater teak stars
Rule if we'dchosen a 0.01 or lowertheHo
would have been accepted I
BBYESLAWvs FREQUENTIST APPROACHESlikelihood
priorto making inferences y
BAYES RUE PfHD PANTHPCDp
posterior normalization
antihwel evidence
H hypothesis D data
In the physicalsciences It is oftenth statevariable Knightcontain dynamicqualities as