Cold Storage Demand Increasing - APREA Asia

Cold Storage Demand IncreasingCold Storage’s Edge Over Traditional Industrial Assets Offers Investor Opportunity

Colliers Radar | Industrial | Hong Kong SAR | 20 May 2021

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

2

+ 33% YOY1

Rebound of Hong Kong’s total

export growth in Q1 2021

Minimal vacancyCurrent cold storages vacancy is virtually

0% with limited en bloc cold storage

buildings and strata-units provided on a

demand-driven basis.

Cold storage, which is a sub-sector of industrial properties to store, pack, and distribute temperature-sensitive and perishable

products in a controlled environment, has recently emerged as one of the most appealing niche asset classes in Hong Kong†.

As mentioned in our report, Rising Investment Demand In Hong Kong Industrial Properties, we have seen rising cold storage

demand from the robust supermarket retail sales performance, e-commerce food delivery, and the pressing need for vaccines

and drugs storage.

In Hong Kong, the term cold stores is an official classification for imported frozen or chilled meat cold storages licensed by the

Food and Environmental Hygiene Department3. As of February 2021, there are 66 licensed cold stores in Hong Kong. While

cold storage is showing positive prospects with higher rents and stable yields compared to traditional industrial assets,

investors interested in this sub-sector should pay attention to opportunities in proximity to Kwai Chung and Sha Tin MTR

stations, where most en bloc licensed cold stores are located and hence presenting the most investment opportunities.

5.4 million sq ft(Or 501,700 sq meters) – The estimated

total gross floor area of Hong Kong

licensed cold stores at the end of

February 2021.

20%-25% rental premiumCold storage enjoys a rental premium of

about 20-25% higher than traditional

warehouses (HKD10-16 per sq ft of GFA

per month).

5.4 million sq ftOr 501,700 sq m – Our estimated gross

floor area (GFA) of Hong Kong licensed

cold stores as of February 20212.

Rosanna TangHead of ResearchHong Kong SAR & Greater Bay Area

Hannah JeongHead of Valuations and AdvisoryHong Kong SAR

† This report covers the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China.Note: 1 Census & Statistics Department 2 Colliers 3 Centre for Food Safety. *Retained imports are the difference between the import and re-export values.

We see Hong Kong’s cold storage

market having strong demand and

limited supply over the next five

years. For example, the retained

imports* of frozen food has grown at

a CAGR of 11%1 from 2016 to 2020,

despite cold storage space (by sq ft

GFA) growing at a CAGR of a mere

4%2 over the same period.

Kwai Chung stands out as one of the

most promising sub-markets,

accounting for 44%2 of the licensed

cold stores space that is well-

connected via the highway network.

We recommend investors consider

three strategies to enter this sector:

• Built-to-suit, either on bare

industrial land or redeveloping

existing industrial buildings.

• Sale-and-leaseback, purchasing

an existing asset and leasing it

back to the original owner.

• Conversion from existing

industrial assets, by adding state

of the art technology to capture

greater investment returns.

Insights & recommendations + 49%Increase of retained imported* frozen food

(by weight) in Hong Kong from 2018 to 2020,

while export growth rebounded 32% YOY in

Q1 20211.

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

Note: 4 Census and Statistics Department 5 HKTV Mall 2020 Annual Result Announcement (P.24) 6 Forrester 7 IMARC Group 8 Real Capital Analytics

2%

25%20%

0%

20%

40%

0

1

2

2018 2019 2020

Retained import of frozen food (LHS)YOY Growth (%) (RHS)

Section 1: Cold storage space in Hong Kong

Different types of cold storage

Cold storage is a sub-sector of industrial properties that provides storage spaces

for temperature-sensitive products as they move through the supply chain.

According to Colliers’ recent regional report Asia Pacific: Industrial & Logistics

Property, there are four key types of cold storages in the market:

Rising demand for cold storage in Hong Kong

COVID has triggered rising frozen food consumption and e-commerce demand in

the city. Hong Kong’s retained imported frozen food increased by 49% over the last

three years, from 1.1 billion kilograms in 2018 to 1.6 billion kilograms in 20204, with

growth accelerating over the last two years, recording 25% YOY growth in 2019 and

20% YOY growth in 2020. Meanwhile, the gross merchandise value of groceries

from HKTVmall, a popular online retailer, reached HKD2.7 billion (USD0.4 billion) in

2020, up 154% YOY from 2019’s HKD1.1 billion (USD0.1 billion)5.

Cold storage in the Asia Pacific market

Market research firm Forrester6 forecasted that the adoption of online sales in

grocery, the fastest-growing e-commerce segments in APAC, will see a compound

annual growth of 30% from 2019 to 2024. Meanwhile, IMARC Group expects the

APAC cold storage segment to grow from USD111 billion in 2020 to USD255 billion

by 20267. Such trends further strengthen investment demand for cold storage

space. In fact, total APAC cold storage investment reached USD2.0 billion in 2020,

growing at an average annual rate of 21% since 20118.

3

Why cold storage is important?

Billion kilograms

Source: IMARC Group

Compound Annual Growth Rate

(CAGR) 15%

Frozen(-16℃ to -26℃)

Cold storage(-1℃ to 4℃)

Fresh produce(0℃ to 8℃)

Air-conditioned (17℃ to 22℃)

Expansion of APAC cold storage market

Source: Census & Statistics Department

Growing retained import frozen food in Hong Kong (2018–2020)

YOY%

Source: Census & Statistics Department*Note: e-mails, telephone and facsimiles orders are not counted as online sales.

Increasing demand for e-commerce

HK$3.6billion

+63% YOY

Accounting for around 7% of

total retail sales

HK$6.3 billion

Q1 2020 Q1 2021

Online retail sales* value

US$111billion

US$255billion

111

255

APAC cold storage (US$ billion)

2020 2026 F

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

“While the market is changing under the influence of globalization, the development of the Greater Bay Area as well as e-commerce, it has high expectation [for greater demand] on the cold chain logistic service.”

Hong Kong Logistics

Association 9

4

Section 2: Major market players in Hong Kong Typically, cold storage market players can be categorised into four major types, differentiated by their operating model and scope of expertise.

Note: 9 The Hong Kong Logistic Association *Dah Chong Hong was selected as the Sinovac and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine distributor.

Four types of Cold Storage Players

Classification Description & usage Competitive landscape Market players examples

1Cold Storage

Operators &

Specialists

• Cold storage operators and specialists possess in-depth operational knowledge

• Expertise in processing, sorting and exporting, particularly for agricultural goods and food products

• Players in this space are based locally with expertise in managing the day-to-day operations of a cold storage facility

• The competitive landscape is monopolised by a few local players

• Brilliant Cold Storage Management Ltd.

• Sun Wah Cold Storage Ltd.

• The Hong Kong Ice & Cold Storage Company Ltd.

2

Pure Investors &

Investors with

Operational

Subsidiaries

• Investors typically involve in asset development, acquisition and positioning

• This category could be further subdivided into (1) pure investors; and (2) investor with operational subsidiaries

• Cold storage investors and conglomerates account for the largest portion of market share (by sq ft)

• Usually, they are the primary owners of the assets with a long-term investment horizon

• Pure investors: Mapletree, HSBC Life, Goodman, SilkRoad

• Investors with subsidiary as operators: China Resources (City Super), CITIC (Dah Chong Hong*)

3Third-Party

Logistics (3PL)

• 3PLs facilitate goods distribution into and out of the cold storages

• Unlike operators, they focus on distribution and delivery services catered towards the end-users

• 3PL landlords can typically attain a higher income from their tenants by acting as a third party for goods distribution

• However, 3PLs that are not owners also bear more risk as they are likely committed to a fixed lease term

• Kerry Logistics (HK)

• Chevalier Logistics (HK)

• Yusen Logistics (Japan)

• SF Express (Mainland China)

4 Occupiers

• Occupiers are typically the large grocery chains, consumer goods chains, and ecommerce are most recently some are catered towards certain types of vaccines storage

• Occupiers are amongst the most diversified in the group

• Demand dependent upon underlying economy, so potentially less stable compared to other cold storage players

• Park’N Shop, Dairy Farm

• Nestle (HK), Tung Fong Hung

• Angliss, Kai Bo, Million Group

• Typically, other small-to-mid sized occupants.

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

“Several reasons that we find the segment interesting. New supply is relatively minimal. Tenants are less likely to move out because of some capex or equipment invested. The leases offer stably increasing rents over a relatively long term.”

Kasey Wong,

- PrincipalBentalGreenOak

5

Section 3: Cold storage’s edge in Hong Kong

In recent years, cold storage has become an emerging sub-sector in Hong Kong’s

industrial market being eyed by investors, and most typically from investment

funds. We have seen three cold storage assets changing hands in the first four

months of 2021 with a total of HKD2.3 billion (USD0.3 billion)10, all of which were

acquired by institutional investment funds.

Typical cold storage lease structures

Compared to the typical traditional warehouse leases, cold storage leases usually

have the following elements in their lease structure:

Premium in rental and yield for cold storages

Traditional warehouses in Hong Kong generally fetch unit rents in a range of

HKD10-16 per sq ft of GFA per month, varying based on the location, vertical

access (ramp/lift access), floor loading and ceiling height. The rental premium for

cold storages is differentiated from traditional warehouses, typically due to their

enhanced building specifications, such as higher floor loading and ceiling height

(further explained in Section 5) and the relatively limited supply. Whereby, the

rental premium is about 20-25% higher than traditional warehouses. The

aforementioned premium is likely sustained by the limited cold storage supply,

which creates stiff competition among end-users.

Apart from their rental level, cold storages have a premium in capitalisation rate

over traditional warehouses. The limited pool of cold storage operators equally

covers a small pool of market participants and thus, would be deemed riskier as it

is difficult to seek suitable tenants for replacement. The sale-and-leaseback†

arrangement also pushes higher yields, as owner-occupiers would typically raise

the rental level before the sale to attract buyers in the market. In 2020 and 2021,

we have already seen two en bloc cold storage sale-and-leaseback transactions.

Sub-sector Rental Range (HKD) on GFA Cap Rate (%)

Traditional Warehouse 10-16 per sq ft per month 2.9 to 3.1

Cold StorageEn bloc: 15-20 per sq ft per monthStrata: 13-19 per sq ft per month

3.3 to 3.5

Date BuildingArea

(sq ft, GFA)Buyer

Price

(HKD Mil)

Jul-2020 Angliss Hong Kong Food Service Ltd. 61,380 HSBC Life (Property) 325

Feb-2021 Smile Centre 97,751 SilkRoad 321

Feb-2021 Seapower Industrial Centre (G/F to 4/F) 103,746 Goodman 570

Mar-2021 Kai Bo Group Centre 291,697 Angelo Gordon 1,435

Key Cold Storage Transactions (as of 30 April 2021)

Source: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers

†Please refer to page 8 for the definition of sale-and-leaseback.

*Applicable to strata units only.

• Traditional warehouse: 3 years• En bloc cold storage: 3 years + 1st option-to-renew (OTR) for the second

3-year term + 2nd OTR for the third 3-year term• Strata cold storage: 5-6 years (3 years + 2 or 3 years, with rent review);

or 3 years + OTR for a further 3 years

•Review / renew at open market rent

•Subject to a 15% -18% cap

•Tenant bearsGovernment rent, Rates and management fee

•Annual CAPEX borne by the landlord

•Tenant bears all costs to keep both structural/non-structural parts in good condition

•Tenant bears reinstatement cost to remove all movable equipment

•Tenant bears maintenance and repair costs of the cooling system during the lease term

1Longer lease terms

2Rent review / Option to renew

3Triple net basis expenses

4Fit out & reinstatement costs*

Note: 10 Real Capital Analytics, Colliers

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

Section 4: Existing cold storage in Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, cold stores for frozen or chilled meat are licensed by the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department through the issuing of cold store licence11. Currently,

there are 66 licensed cold stores in the city, almost double the 34 in 2011. Meanwhile, simple walk-in freezer type cold stores located within industrial buildings could be

covered by a food factory licence12. According to Colliers’ estimation, there are about 5.4 million sq ft GFA of licensed cold stores space in Hong Kong, with over 95% located

in the New Territories.

6

Source: Colliers, Centre for Food Safety. Note: 11Centre for Food Safety 12 If the frozen/chilled goods are directly related to onsite food production, a food factory licence is allowed.

Sub-market

• Kwai Chung is one of the most important sub-markets, accounting for over 40% of licensed cold stores

• This area is supported by the proximity to the Kwai Tsing Container Terminals and high-quality site access to the airport and its central location in Hong Kong

Building age

• Average building age of the existing licensed cold stores is 32 years old

• 27% of the licensed cold stores are in buildings 40+ years old

Percentage of Hong Kong licensed cold stores by district (GFA)

Cumulative percentage of total licensed cold stores space by building age (years)

0 year

5years

10years

15years

20years

25years

30years

35years

40years

45years

50years

Building age

3% 5% 24%54%

94% 100%73%

44%

17%

15%

7%

4%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Kwai Chung

Lantau

Sha Tin

Tsing Yi

Tuen Mun

Southern

Sheung Shui

Yau Tong

Yuen Long

Kwun Tong

Tsuen Wan

Cheung Sha Wan

Fanling

Kowloon Bay

Tai Po

Kwai Chung

Lantau

Sha Tin

Tsing Yi

Tuen Mun

Southern

Sheung Shui

Yau Tong

Yuen Long

Kwun Tong

Tsuen Wan

Cheung Sha Wan

Fanling

Kowloon Bay

Tai Po

“We are attracted to the sector as there is a high demand from cold storage users, but a relative lack of buildings that can accommodate their floor loading and power requirements.”

Peter Wittendorp

- CEOSilkRoad Property Partners

Proportion of en bloc vs strata-titled cold stores

By number of cold stores

en bloc

23%

strata-titled

77%

By area (GFA) of cold stores

en bloc

59%

strata-titled

41%

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

7

Section 5: How investors enter the market?

Three ways to enter the market

Investors who are interested in entering the cold storage market in Hong Kong can

explore three ways: (1) development of built-to-suit14 cold storages, (2) acquire

existing owner-occupied cold storages with sale-and-leaseback opportunities and

(3) conversion from existing industrial assets.

1) Development of built-to-suit cold storage building

The first way for investors to tap into cold storage demand is to develop built-to-

suit buildings. Built-to-suit cold storages tend to provide superior building

specifications, such as higher ceiling height and floor loading, similar to data centre

specifications. A typical industrial government lease15 has no specific limits on cold

storage use, so no lease modification or waiver letter is required to use an

Item Average Range

Slab-to-Slab Ceiling Height (m) 4.8 4.0 - 5.4

Floor Loading (kPa) 16.1 11.0 to 20.0

Power Supply (kVA/10,000 sq ft) 150 100 to 200

Vertical Access within Building Ramp/lift access

industrial lot as cold storage. In addition to the specifications for built-to-suit cold

storage buildings in the table, sufficient loading bays and efficient site access

provisions are important to handle the large volume of traffic. Typically, the built-

to-suit pathway can be done in two ways – 1) the development of bare industrial

land, 2) redevelopment of existing industrial assets.

The first method is through bare industrial land development, however, the limited

new supply under the government land sale programme and the existing

industrial land available are usually the major hurdles, with only two industrial

lands included in the government land sale programme since 2019. Moreover, the

two parcels of industrial land sold, Sha Tin Town Lot No. 613 and Fanling Sheung

Shui Town Lot No. 268, are both modern industrial sites with stipulations allowing

uses such as information technology and telecommunications industries.

Developers acquiring these modern industrial lands tend to develop data centres

since they could fetch the highest rents among all types of industrial uses.

Note: 13 Minor work records from Building Department. 14 A building specifically constructed to meet the client’s needs/ specifications upon completion. 15 Land grant document permitting industrial uses on the land.

Limited availability of cold storage space

The shortage of vacant cold storage space makes conversion of industrial buildings

a popular alternative. This influences how new operators enter the market, and

since 2016, 23 existing cold stores have been licensed with at least 16 of these

located in typical industrial buildings. Those located in industrial buildings were

converted to cold storages by improving the thermal insulation by undergoing

minor works13 such as thickening the floor slab or erecting a block wall.

Typical specifications for existing built-to-suit cold storage16 STTL No. 613Date: Jul-2020Buyer: China MobileTransacted Price: HKD 5.6 billionMax. GFA: 938,524 sq ft

(87,200 sq m)Accommodation Value: HKD5,967/sq ft (G)

FSSTL No. 268Date: Jan-2021Buyer: MapletreeTransacted Price: HKD813 millionMax. GFA: 216,787 sq ft

(20,140 sq m)Accommodation Value: HKD3,750/sq ft (G)

Recent industrial land transactions from public tender

Sha Tin

Fanling

Both sites will be developed as data centres.

Source: 16 Colliers

Central MTR Station 24 km

Central MTR Station 11km

“Location and building specifications are essential in each [cold storage investment] case. Overall, scalability and technology of the operator are also important as the strategy becomes programmatic.”

Kasey Wong,

- PrincipalBentalGreenOak

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

8

2) Sale-and-leaseback with cold storage operators

The second way for investors to enter the cold storage market is to explore

opportunities for the acquisition of existing cold storage. As cold storage operators

are looking to take asset-light strategies for further expansion in line with the

growing demand, the investor can seek sale-and-leaseback opportunities to

minimise the leasing risk and enjoy a stable income. Sale-and-leaseback refers to a

transaction where the original owner sells the property and leases it back from the

new owner upon completion of the transaction.

The sale-and-leaseback deal is usually accompanied by a longer lease term longer

than 10 years, and higher rent, comparing to the typical leases of the same

property type. This is because the arrangement allows the original owner to

continue its operation without incurring extra relocation and fit-out costs. Hence,

the original owner is willing to lease back the property at a higher rent. Since 2020,

we have seen two major cold storage sale-and-leaseback transactions where cold

storage operators (sellers) sold to institutional funds (buyers).

Note: 17 Land Registry 18 Colliers 19 CFA = Construction Floor Area

3) Conversion from existing industrial assets

The third way of entering the market is by conversion or refurbishment of existing

industrial assets through the installation of chiller and cold storage equipment. For

industrial buildings to support cold storage facilities, including the chiller or

refrigerator plant and equipment, buildings must meet minimum requirements

such as ceiling height and floor loading. We suggest investors look for industrial

assets fulfilling the minimum required building specification as stipulated in

Section 5.

There are expert service providers capable of undertaking such conversion or

refurbishment projects covering services ranging from feasibility study, design of

conversion works, preparation of submissions for approval from government

departments, project execution and overall project management. The typical range

of cost and time required for cold storage conversion projects in existing industrial

buildings are shown in the table below.

Item Average

Alterations and Additions (A&A) Conversion Cost18

(HKD/sq ft on CFA17)2,500

Mechanical Equipment Installation Cost18

(HKD/sq ft on CFA19)1,000+

Typical Conversion Period (months)10 (typically a

range of 9 to 12)

Kai Bo Group Centre in Kwai Chung

Date: Mar-2021Buyer: Angelo Gordon AsiaSeller: Kai Bo GroupTransacted Price: HKD1,435 million17

(USD185 million)GFA: 291,697 sq ft (27,100 sq m)Unit Price: HKD4,919/sq ft (G)

Angliss Hong Kong Food Service Limited in Kwai Chung

Date: Jul-2020Buyer: HSBC Life (Property)Seller: AnglissTransacted Price: HKD325 million17

(USD41.9 million)GFA: 61,380 sq ft (5,700 sq m)Unit Price: HKD5,295/sq ft (G)

Typical requirement for cold storage conversion projects

“Given HK’s relatively small size and efficient road networks, most locations can be considered ‘last mile’ The challenge is finding suitable buildings at a reasonable price.”

Peter Wittendorp

- CEOSilkRoad Property Partners

Colliers Radar Industrial | Hong Kong | 20 May 2021

9

Sale-and-leaseback or conversion as the fast entry

route

The limited new industrial land supply from the government renders

the development of new built-to-suit cold storage difficult. An efficient

way to invest in cold storage in Hong Kong is to look for existing

owner-occupied cold storages and propose a sale-and-leaseback deal.

Investors should also keep an eye on cold storages operating under

food factory licences, as this type of shadow supply can be seen as

potential stocks for investment.

Apart from sale-and-leaseback opportunities, which are constrained by

availability, investors should also explore industrial assets with

potential for conversion or refurbishment, especially those assets with

good locations and building specifications suitable for cold storage

operations.

Kwai Chung as the recommended location

The location of cold storage is very important due to the thawing

nature of business, and it is also a critical factor when investors

determine the value of cold storage buildings. Hence, we see Kwai

Chung as the most attractive sub-market, due to its excellent site

access, proximity to both container terminals and the airport, and

large existing supply of cold storages. Kwai Chung, being an existing

industrial area, incorporates vehicular circulation design and road

widths designed for lorries. As cold storage deliveries usually occur at

the same time each day, these features allow smooth and efficient

ingress and egress. This is an advantage Kwai Chung has over other

sub-markets as building specifications can be enhanced by A&A works,

but improving site access is difficult to alter, leading location to be the

utmost important factor.

Note: 20 Hong Kong Budget 2021 21 ACI World data reveals COVID-19’s impact on world’s busiest airports.

Summary & Recommendation

Cold storage as a promising asset type

We believe the demand for cold storage in Hong Kong will likely

remain strong in the future, supported by the increasing

volume of supermarket retail sales, change of consumers’

shopping habit to favour e-commerce and online F&B, as well

as the increasing vaccine and drug usage. Many cold storage

operators and end-users have commenced and expanded their

cold storage operations since 2019, including Dairy Farm, Fresh

Del Monte and Meisei Hong Kong.

Despite the growing demand, we observed a very limited

scheduled new supply of cold storages in the market, making

the cold storages in Hong Kong a very niche sector that attracts

increasing appetite from both local and institutional investors,

who are eyeing the higher rental premium of cold storages over

typical warehouses.

Potential conversion from logistics centres

Investors should be aware of the opportunity to convert future

warehouse supply into cold storages. Colliers estimates that

about 5 million sq ft (464,500 sq m) GFA of new warehouse

supply is scheduled from 2021 to 2023, in which 4.1 million sq ft

(380,000 sq m) GFA will be coming from the logistics centre

owned by Cainiao located in the South Cargo Precinct of Hong

Kong International Airport (HKIA). In the 2021-22 Budget20, the

government explicitly mentioned that the Airport Authority will

actively explore measures to facilitate trans-shipment in the

city, utilising its capability in managing temperature-controlled

air cargo with a target of maintaining HKIA’s position as the

world’s busiest international freight airport21.

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Primary Authors:

Rosanna TangHead of Research | Research |Hong Kong SAR and Greater Bay Area+852 2822 [email protected]

Henry LamSenior Manager | Research | Hong Kong SAR+852 2822 [email protected]

Anthony WongManager | Research | Hong Kong SAR+852 2822 [email protected]

For further information, please contact:

Nigel SmithManaging Director | Hong Kong SAR+852 2822 [email protected]

John DaviesExecutive Director | Office Services &Industrial Services | Hong Kong SAR+852 2822 [email protected]

Hannah JeongHead of Valuation & Advisory Services | Hong Kong SAR+852 2822 [email protected]

Pureanae JangAssociate Director| Valuation & Advisory | Hong Kong SAR+852 2822 [email protected]

Chelsea YipAssistant Manager | Valuation & Advisory | Hong Kong SAR+852 2822 [email protected]