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adapting
to coastal
climatechangea guidebook for
development
planners
MAY 2009
t ub b by ur f ar p ru U s ay fr ir
dv (Usaid). i w rr by c Rur crUvry f R i (cRcURi) ir
Rur gru (iRg).
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ADAPTING TO COASTAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
A GUIDEBOOK FOR DEVELOPMENT
PLANNERS
U.S
.
DEPARTMENT OF C
OMM
ERCE
NAT
IO
NALO
CEANI
CAN
D ATMOSPHER
ICADM
I
NISTRATIO
N
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ADAPTING TO COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE
iii
table o contents
acknowledgements vi
preface vii
summary for policymakers viii
introduction 151.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . 16
1.2 Roadmap to the Guidebook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
assess vulnerability 20
2.1 Global Climate Change and Threats to the Worlds Coasts . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.2 Vulnerability Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25
2.3 Coastal Vulnerability Hot Spots . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31
select course of action 34
3.1 Identiy Priorities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35
3.2 Defne Adaptation Goals and Objectives . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
3.3 Adaptation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.4 Selecting Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
42
mainstream coastal adaptation 46
4.1 What is Mainstreaming? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474.2
National and Regional Entry Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.3 Sectoral Investments and Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51
4.4 Coastal Places . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
53
4.5 Overcoming Barrier s and Obstacles to Successul
Mainstreaming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 53
implement adaptation 57
5.1 Ensure Adequate Administrative and Institutional Capacity .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.2 Strengthen Legal Frameworks and Enorcement . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.3 Strengthen Personnel Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
59
5.4 Highlight Costs o Doing Nothing and Costs o Adaptation
Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.5 Develop Sustainable Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
59
5.6 Plan or Externalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
60
5.7 Maintain Scientifc Basis or Policy and Monitoring . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61
5.8 Maintain an Inclusive and Participator y Process . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615.9
Select Technically Appropriate and Eective Measures . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
evaluate for adaptive management 64
6.1 Evaluation o Adaptations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
6.2 Adapting Evaluation Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66
references 70
Annex A Adaptation Measures 72
contribution to development goals and addressing climate change
impacts 73
functioning and healthy coastal ecosystems 74
1. Coastal Wetland Protection and Restoration . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
75
2. Marine Conservation Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
79
3. Marine Protected Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
83
4. Payment or Environmental Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
87
built environment is less exposed 90
1. Beach and Dune Nourishment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
91
2. Building Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 95
3. Coastal Development Setbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
98
4. Living Shorelines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
102
5. Structural Shoreline Stabilization . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
106
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iv
table o contents (continued)
diversified livelihoods 109
1. Fisheries Sector Good Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
110
2. Mariculture Best Management Practices . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
115
3. Tourism Best Management Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
118
human health and safety enhanced 1221. Community-based Disaster
Risk Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
2. Flood Hazard Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
127
overarching planning and governance 132
1. Coastal Watershed Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
133
2. Integrated Coastal Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
138
3. Special Area Management Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
144
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list o fgures
Figure 1.1 A coastal adaptation roadmap applies a climate lens
to the ICM policy cycle often used by coastal practitioners
Figure 2.1 Vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge
Figure 2.2 Vulnerability framework
Figure 3.1 Ordering coastal adaptation outcomes
Figure 3.2 Adaptation options related to the goals of the U.S.
National Estuary Program.
Figure 4.1 How entry points reinforce each other and contribute
to a more integrated strategy
Figure 4.2 Mainstreaming adaptation in coastal tourism
Figure 4.3 Adaptation can be mainstreamed within the national
development strategy, sector strategies, or donor grants
Figure 6.1 Adaptive management process
list o tables
Table 2.1 A Summary of climate change observations and trends in
the coastal zone
Table 2.2 Threats to the coastal environment
Table 2.3 Examples of exposed coastal assets and factors of
sensitivity
Table 3.1 Examples of adaptation goals for coastal climate
change
Table 3.2 Adaptat ion measures, goals, and climate change
impacts
Table 4.1 An assessment of the national adaptation programme of
action
Table 6.1 What motivates evaluation and what are the
benefits
Table 6.2 Adaptation measures and adaptive management
responses
acronyms
BMP Best Management Practice
CRC Coastal Resources Center
ICM Integrated Coastal Management
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRG International Resources Group
LDC Less Developed Countries
NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action
PES Payments for Environmental Services
SCCRF Special Climate Change Fund
SIDS Small Island Developing States
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
URI University of Rhode Island
USAID United States Agency for International Development
V&A Vulnerability and Adaptation
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acknowledgements
Tis Guidebook was prepared under the leadership o the Global
Climate Change eam and Water and Coastal eamo the United States
Agency or International Development (USAID) Bureau or Economic
Growth, Agriculture,and rade, in partnership with the Coastal
Resources Center at the University o Rhode Island (URICRC), and
theInternational Resources Group (IRG). Many others provided
advice, content and ideas. In particular, we wish to
thank our Advisory Committee members whose initial input and
periodic comments and contributions helped shapethe eort.
We also greatly appreciate the invaluable eedback rom coastal
proessionals and practitioners around the world. Inparticular, we
want to acknowledge the interest in and support o the Guidebook by
participants o the ollowing: the4th Global Conerence on Oceans,
Coasts, and Islands convened in Hanoi, Vietnam in April 2008; the
EcoCostasNetwork meeting in Ecuador in May 2008; the 2008 Summer
Institute in Advanced Coastal Management at URI;and the Workshop on
Mainstreaming Climate Change Development Strategies, Programs and
Projects held in Panamain October 2008.
Special thanks are extended to sta at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or their input,expertise, and
support to build local capacity in coastal adaptation.
Te Project eamcomprised o Richard Volk and John Furlow (USAID);
Pamela Rubino, James obey, DonaldRobadue, Glenn Ricci, Lesley
Squillante (URICRC); Glen Anderson, Yoon Kim and Kyung Kim
(IRG)would alsolike to recognize by name the Advisory Committee
members and the many practitioners who contributed
adaptationmeasures and graphics, and who provided technical review
and practical advice that has enhanced this Guidebook:
Ellik Adler, United Nations Environment Programme Kem Lowry,
University o Hawaii
Amanda Babson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Audra
Luscher, U.S. NOAA Coastal Services Center
Carl Bruch, Environmental Law Institute Elizabeth Matthews,
Palau Conservation Society
Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey Joseph Murphy, U.S.
Embassy Fiji
Gillian Cambers, University o Puerto Sandra Nichols,
Environmental Law InstituteRico Sea Grant College ProgramGwen
Shaughnessy, Maryland Coastal Program
Hannah Campbell, Conservation International,ormerly with U.S.
NOAA Climate Program Oce Sena De Silva, Network o Aquaculture
Centres o Asia
Je DeBlieu, Te Nature Conservancy Adam Stein, NOAA Coastal
Services Center
Bill Dennison, University o Maryland Robert Stickney, exas
A&M University
Center or Environmental ScienceJessica roell, Environmental Law
Institute
Lesley Ewing, Caliornia Coastal CommissionJay Udelhoven, Te
Nature Conservancy
Serena Fortuna, United Nations Environmental ProgrammeLisa
Vaughan, U.S. NOAA Climate Program Oce
Fathimath Ghina, UNESCO Laverne Walker, Coastal Zone Management
Unit, St. LuciaKaren Jakubowski, Clean Air Cool Planet
Anne Walton, U.S. NOAA National
Zo Johnson, Maryland Department o Natural Resources Marine
Sanctuary Program
Jetic Ljubomir, United Nations Environmental Programme Alan
White, Te Nature Conservancy
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preface
Te challenges we all must ace in adapting to climate variability
and change present themselves with increasingurgency. Nowhere will
these challenges be greater than in the developing world where oten
weak institutions andgovernance systems struggle to deal with
mounting pressures rom population growth, inadequate inrastructure,
anddiminishing or already depleted natural resources.
In this context, the unique ecosystem processes and
extraordinary development pressures within the coastal zonerequire
that development planners and the donors who assist with
development give special urgency to the task ohelping to build
resiliency against the impacts o climate change. Te changes are
many and already underway. Teyinclude rising sea level,
increasingly intense cyclones, altered precipitation and runo,
elevated sea surace temperature,and ocean acidifcation.
Te decades ahead will witness increased numbers o people,
inrastructure, and ecosystems at risk in the coastalzone. National
and local leaders across all sectors must begin now to engage
stakeholders in assessing vulnerabilityand designing adaptation
strategies that are technically, fnancially, and politically
achievable. Meanwhile, donors toomust work to protect their
investments by incorporating analyses o climate variability and
change into the design andimplementation o virtually every kind o
development assistance program to be implemented within the coastal
zone.
Tis Guidebook is both a tool in itsel and a link to other
resources to help with those eorts. Te processes, tools,and
resources that it contains are based on the inputs o numerous
coastal planners, climate change experts, and otherdevelopment
proessionals. It was prepared under the guidance o the Water eam
and Global Climate Change eamo the U.S. Agency or International
Development.
Te eective application o these tools, development o new
techniques and sharing o lessons will be critical tomeet all o the
myriad challenges o a ast evolving landscape/seascape o coastal
climate change adaptation aroundthe world. We consider this a frst
edition and welcome and encourage your comments, suggestions, and
inputs orinclusion in subsequent editions.
Please address correspondence about the Guidebook to:
Te U.S. Agency or International DevelopmentGlobal Climate Change
eamWashington, DC, USA [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
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summary or policymakers
Adapting to Coastal Climate Change: A Guidebook or Development
Planners (the Guidebook) provides a detailedtreatment o climate
concerns in coastal areas. Te Guidebook proposes an approach or
assessing vulnerability toclimate change and climate variability,
developing and implementing adaptation options, and integrating
optionsinto programs, development plans, and projects at the
national and local levels. Tis is known as a vulnerability and
adaptation or V&A approach. Te summary presented here is
designed or policymakers and others who are interestedin the
Guidebooks key messages and may review the ull version later or use
the Guidebook as a reerence document.Te summary is organized by the
steps in the V&A approach that is recommended in this
Guidebook. Reerences orthe inormation provided in this summary are
included in the main body o the Guidebook.
Tere is an unequivocal scientic consensus that the changes
brought by climate change are already occurring andwill intensiy in
the uture, likely resulting in signicant alteration o coastal
ecosystems, coastal hazards, and liestylechanges or shers, coastal
resource users, waterront property owners and coastal communities.
Tese have arreaching impacts on a range o challenges or coastal
resource managers. Dramatically stepped up eorts are neededto guide
proactive adaptation actions that benet human and natural
ecosystems or present and uture generations.
Step 1
Assess
vulnerability
Step 2
Select course
o action
Step 3Mainstream
coastal
adaptation
Step 4Implement
Adaptation
Step 5Evaluate or
adaptive
management
STEP 1. ASSESS VULNERABILITY
The assessment of vulnerability focuses on gaining an
understanding of how climate variability and change
will impact coastal communities, the goods and services provided
by natural resources, and human-built
infrastructure.
Vulnerability assessment or climate change in specic coastal
regions considers three actors: 1) the nature
and magnitude o climate variability and change; 2) the human,
capital, and natural assets that will beexposed to and impacted by
climate change; and 3) the current capacity o coastal communities
andecosystems to adapt to and cope with climate impacts.
Climate is changing in response to increased greenhouse gas
emissions, and projections for the coming decades
paint a somber picture.
Tere is scientic consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere drive warmingtemperatures o air and sea, and that
the worlds oceans acidiy as they absorb the carbon dioxide.
Warmingo air and sea causes shits in precipitation patterns and
hydrological cycles, sea level rise, and morerequent and severe
extreme weather events (e.g., storms and storm surge). Tese eects
are already being
witnessed in the worlds coastal regions and are projected to
intensiy in years to come.
Climate change will impact the health, function and productivity
of coastal ecosystems, thus impacting the
health and welfare of coastal communities and the billions of
people that depend on these natural resources.
Climate changes will have signicant and immediate consequences
or the worlds coasts, the goods andservices provided by coastal
ecosystems, and coastal inhabitants. Tis includes accelerated
coastal erosionand loss o land and property, fooding, saltwater
intrusion, shits in the distribution and abundance ovaluable marine
habitats, species and biodiversity, and the accelerated spread o
exotic and invasive species.
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ix
It may mean more requent coral bleaching and increased
mortality, loss o coastal wetland ecosystems andshing grounds, and
growth in the spread o marine dead zones.
Te ocean is also becoming more acidic (decreased seawater pH) as
it absorbs atmospheric carbondioxide (CO
2). Ocean acidication has potential widespread eects on marine
ecosystems. It may inhibit
calcication, which will threaten the survival o coralree
ecosystems. It will inhibit the growth ocalcareous algae at the
base o the ood web and o shellorming marine organisms (such as
scallops),
and it will stunt the growth o calcied skeletons in many other
marine organisms, including commercialsh species. Tese species
changes then aect local sheries livelihoods and ood supplies or
coastalcommunities.
Te ability o ecosystems and habitats to adapt to climate impacts
can be increased by reducing otherstressors such as overshing and
landbased pollution. Reducing these current stresses will increase
theresilience or ability o the environment to adapt to uture
impacts, thus reducing threats to human welare.
Coastal areas most vulnerable to climate change are low-lying
islands, coastal areas and deltas; countries
subjected to hurricanes and typhoons; and less developed
countries
Relative to other coastal areas, lowlying islands, including
many Small Island Developing States (SIDS),
are more vulnerable to the impacts o climate change because they
have relatively scarce natural resources(e.g., water resources,
construction materials and physical space) and they have limited
and high costtransportation options. Lowlying SIDS have little
scope or adaptation and are particularly vulnerable tosea level
rise and storm surge.
Less developed countries are vulnerable to climate change
because o rapid population growth, much oit concentrated in coastal
areas; high dependency on climatesensitive industries such as
sheries, coastalagriculture and tourism; a degraded natural
resource base; weak administration and governance systems;and poor
transportation and communication inrastructure.
Low lying coastal areas and deltas are highly vulnerable to sea
level rise, extreme weather events andstorm surge. Globally, at
least 150 million people live within 1 meter o high tide level, and
250 million
live within 5 meters o high tide. At greatest risk are the
densely populated Asian megadeltas o riversincluding the Yangtze
(China), GangesBrahmaputra (Bangladesh), Mekong (Cambodia), and
Irrawaddy(Myanmar). Other major megadeltas at risk are the Nile
(Egypt), Niger (Arica), and Mississippi (USA).
Climate change combines with and amplifies non-climate stressors
on coastal ecosystems.
Coastal ecosystems are already seriously stressed inmany areas o
the world. Reasons include intense coastaldevelopment and
overpopulation, poverty, internal confict,ragmentation and loss o
habitat, overshing, pollution,and spread o invasive species. Tese
nonclimate stressors
will impair the resilience o ecosystems, i.e., the ability othe
ecosystem to maintain its integrity and to continue toprovide
critical goods and services to coastal communities.
Mangroves, coral rees, estuaries, seagrass beds, dunecommunities
and other systems on or near shorelines servecritical ecological
unctions that are important to humansociety. Such unctions include
sheries, storm protection,food mitigation, erosion control, water
storage, groundwaterrecharge, pollution abatement, and retention
and cycling onutrients and sediments. Healthy habitats unction as
sel
Uncontrolled development along the coast results
in conicts over access, increased demands on
inrastructure, degraded water quality and increased
risks to natural hazards. Sinaloa, Mexico
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repairing natural inrastructure, in contrast to humanbuilt
inrastructure, thus minimizing maintenancecosts. When these
critical resources are compromised, coastal ecosystems are
weakenedand weakened,unhealthy coastal ecosystems are less
resilient to climate change and variability.
Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of society to plan for
and respond to change in a way that makes it
better equipped to manage its exposure and sensitivity to
climate change.
Adaptive capacity depends on economic wellbeing, ecological
wellbeing, the extent o dependency onnatural resources,
inrastructure (humanbuilt or natural), eectiveness o institutions
and governancesystems, insurance, secure land tenure and mediation
measures, and inormation and communicationsystems. A community with
the capacity to adapt is likely to be more resistant to impacts or
able to recoverrom stressul events and conditions.
Step 1
Assess
vulnerability
Step 2
Select course
o action
Step 3
Mainstream
coastal
adaptation
Step 4
Implement
Adaptation
Step 5
Evaluate or
adaptive
management
STEP 2: SELECT COURSE OF ACTION
Planned adaptation is strategic and aims to address the full
range of coastal climate change hazards in ways
that meet social objectives.
In general, there are two types o adaptationreactive and
planned. Reactive adaptations are the changesin policy and behavior
that people and organizations adopt ater they have observed changes
in climateand coastal risks. Tis Guidebook ocuses on planned
adaptationthat which is strategic, intentional,proactive, and
occurs at the societal level.
The selection of a course of action to address climate
vulnerability involves the identification of adaptation
goals, and assessment of individual adaptation measures or
measures bundled into a strategy.
Coastal areas may be subject to a variety o climate impacts.
Tereore, it is useul to prioritize your climatevulnerabilities. Tis
will help in selecting your adaptation options and course o action.
It is important tocoordinate this with the decisionmaking
procedures that govern the program, plan, or project or
whichclimate is a concern. We urge policymakers to engage major
stakeholders in setting adaptation goals,selecting criteria or and
assessing adaptation options, and providing input into the nal
selection process.Major categories o management goals common to
adaptation programs in coastal areas include:
1) Maintain unctioning and healthy coastal ecosystems
2) Reduce exposure and vulnerability o the built environment
3) Strengthen governance rameworks or coastal adaptation
4) Maintain livelihood opportunities and diversiy options
5) Reduce risks to human health and saety
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xi
A gallery of coastal adaptation measures has been
developed for the Guidebook. Many of these will be
familiar to coastal management professionalsthe
climate lens is new, but in most cases the tools are
not.
Te Guidebook includes practitioner bries on 17coastal adaptation
measures and strategies. Each
brie describes the measures relevance, purpose andapplication to
climate change, inormation and datarequirements, design
considerations, suggestionsor improving likelihood o success, and
list oresources. Te 17 bries were chosen by coastalpractitioners
rom an initial list o 50 adaptationmeasures.
raditionally, practitioners would view many othese adaptation
measures in terms o their potentialbenets in promoting coastal
management goals.Applying a climate lens means that adaptation
measures are viewed in terms o how theyreduce impacts and/or
improve the resilience ocommunities and ecosystems in the ace o
climatechange and variability while promoting coastalmanagement
goals. In other words, it meansplanning with a longer time scale
and a wider rangeo possible variability in mind.
Criteria for evaluating adaptation measures consider technical
effectiveness, costs, expected benefits, and
implementation characteristics.
Countries or coastal areas may share the same climate change
issues. Yet, each has dierent circumstances(climate, natural
resources, inrastructure, technological state, economy, governance,
etc.) so the responsesto those climate change issues may vary.
Coastal adaptations must be tailored to the local context throughan
inclusive process that matches development goals with the climate
change issues and the technicalcapabilities and the capacity o the
institutions and community stakeholders o the place. Following are
keycriteria or deciding the best adaptation option given the local
context:
Technical eectiveness: will the adaptation option be eective in
solving problems arising rom climatechange while also meeting
current development or management goals?
Costs: what is the cost to implement the adaptation measure?
Benefts:what types (and magnitudes) o benets will be generated
by the adaptation measure and whowill benet?
Implementation considerations: how easy is it to design and
implement the option in terms o thelevel o skill required,
inormation needed, and scale o implementation?
It is useul to distinguish between climate benets and nonclimate
benets. Climate benets include suchthings as avoiding damages and
their associated costs and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Nonclimatebenets are those that result under current climate
conditions. An example is enorcing prohibitions onmining coral
rees, an activity that exacerbates coastal erosion and reduces
coastal protection. Adaptationsthat yield nonclimate benets greater
than the costs o implementation are reerred to as no regrets
Adaptation measures are summarized as
practitioner bries in Annex A.
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xii
options. Tis term implies society will have no regrets in
implementing these measureseven i climatechange is less signicant
than projected.
In general, except in intensely developed areas, adaptation
options that favor ecosystem and living shoreline
approaches are recommended over hard structures to stabilize the
shoreline.
Living shoreline approaches address erosion and fooding by
providing or longterm protection, restoration
or enhancement o vegetated shoreline habitats. Such no regrets
approachesi.e., approaches thatare benecial even in the absence o
climate changeshould be a priority. Te use o natural
livinginrastructure provides multiple benets while minimizing
repair costs. Functional coastal ecosystems aremore resilient to
climate change and variability. Tey also provide goods and services
that are important tohuman society in the ace o climate change
(sheries, livelihoods, ood security, storm protection,
foodmitigation, shoreline natural deenses, erosion control, water
storage, groundwater recharge, retentiono nutrients and sediments,
and ltering o pollutants). Maintaining ecosystem biodiversity is
critical toensuring healthy ecosystems and thus naturalresource
dependent livelihoods, such as wild sheries.
Adaptation responses will often include bundles of adaptation
measures and require additional considerations
in evaluating multiple measures.In evaluating and selecting the
best combination o adaptation measures, policymakers and
practitionersmight consider the ollowing:
Complements vs. substitutes: Ideally, bundles should include
adaptation measures that arecomplementary to each other. Tis
capitalizes on synergies and ensures that each measure adds
benets.I measures are substitutes or each other, select and include
in the bundle the measure that is leastcostly and/or provides the
greatest net benets.
Budget constraints: Oten, there are limited nancial resources
available to cover the costs oimplementation. In these situations,
nocost and lowcost measures may be more attractive thanexpensive
measures such as humanbuilt inrastructure. Adaptation is a
continuous process, so we
recommend a phased approach when priority measures are not
aordable.
Step 1
Assess
vulnerability
Step 2
Select course
o action
Step 3
Mainstream
coastal
adaptation
Step 4
Implement
Adaptation
Step 5
Evaluate or
adaptive
management
STEP 3: MAINSTREAM COASTAL ADAPTATION
Climate change adaptation on the coast must be understood as a
fundamental challenge for managing coastal
resource uses and must be mainstreamed into coastal policy at
all levels.Mainstreaming means that climate concerns and adaptation
responses are integrated into relevantdevelopment policies, plans,
programs, and projects at the national, subnational, and local
scales. Nationalclimate change adaptation strategies are more
eective when guidance on adaptation is mainstreamed intodevelopment
and sectoral plans and strategies and is owned by those authorities
responsible or preparingand implementing them.
Tere are many entry points or mainstreaming coastal adaptation.
Tis Guidebook highlights three othese: 1) national or regional
level public policy, 2) sectoral investments and projects, and 3)
subnational,placebased initiatives. Each entry point oers
challenges, creates new roles or citizens, the private sector
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and government, and can create new opportunities.Government must
play a pivotal role in creating enablingpolicy, nancial and legal
rameworks, capturing andsharing experience, and raising public
awareness.
Guidelines and policies for mainstreaming climate concerns
and adaptation responses into capital investment plans
andproject cycles are recommended in the face of climate
change.
Development banks, such as the Arican DevelopmentBank and the
World Bank, are increasingly concernedthat a substantial share o
investments are at risk romdirect impacts rom climate change,
thereby increasingvulnerabilities or reducing the intended
developmentbenets. Estimates o Development Banks portolio atrisk
range rom 2540%. For example, inrastructure that cannot be adapted
to withstand the impacts oclimate change may expose more people and
assets to risk. Mainstreaming climate concerns into capital
investment plans and project cycle management entails
integrating climate issues and adaptation prioritiesinto country
strategies. Greater consideration must also be given to
vulnerability and adaptation in projectdesigns, screening,
selection and evaluation.
Engaging a broad group o stakeholdersthroughout
the process is key to successul adaptation.
A two-track approach combining local level, community-based
adaptation with national level enabling policy,
finance and legal frameworks is an effective approach to
adaptation implementation.
Successul mainstreaming requires reinorcing linkages between
local and national level adaptation entrypoints. Government,
together with nongovernment partners, must play a pivotal role in
ostering theconnections across national, sectoral, and place entry
points.
There may be resistance to mainstreaming climate adaptation.
Coastal managers can draw upon their repertoire
of experience to formulate strategies to overcome such
barriers.
Tere is oten inherent resistance to the introduction o any new
policy idea. Because climate changeimpacts are cumulative and occur
over the longterm, there may be little sense o urgency to
act.Individuals and organizations may resist because o the
uncertainties that surround climate changeand because they have
dierent tolerance levels or the risks associated with taking action
under suchuncertainties. Te Guidebook lists good practices or
successul and sustained coastal adaptation thathave proven eective
in coastal management worldwide and that can help in overcoming
resistance tomainstreaming coastal adaptation.
Step 1Assess
vulnerability
Step 2Select course
o action
Step 3Mainstream
coastal
adaptation
Step 4Implement
Adaptation
Step 5Evaluate or
adaptive
management
STEP 4: IMPLEMENT ADAPTATION
Implementation of adaptation measures brings new challenges and
potential conflicts. Practitioners and coastal
professionals need to be aware of these and address them
proactively.
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xiv
Implementation challenges include: inadequate administrative,
institutional, and sta capabilities; lack osustainable nancing or
cost recovery; weak legal rameworks and enorcement; inormation gaps
on thecosts o acting vs. not acting (doing nothing); maintaining
scientic data and monitoring to sustain themeasures; unengaged
political leadership and stakeholders; and poor technical
eectiveness o the measures.Te Guidebook identies specic responses
to each implementation challenge. Many o these challengescan be
anticipated and addressed prior to implementationi.e., during the
assessment, design, andmainstreaming steps o coastal
adaptation.
Coastal practitioners and proessionals must be alert to
implementation challenges and address themproactively as they
become evident. Recommended actions include periodic program
reviews at the nationalor local levels to ensure agencies and
communities are aware o successes and ailures. Another action is
toeducate and encourage the public and property owners to be active
in the stakeholder process. Also, takeaction to keep coastal
adaptation on the public agenda, and conduct monitoring and
scientic studies toreduce uncertainty about the eectiveness o the
measures being implemented.
Step 1
Assess
vulnerability
Step 2
Select course
o action
Step 3
Mainstream
coastal
adaptation
Step 4
Implement
Adaptation
Step 5
Evaluate or
adaptive
management
STEP 5: EVALUATE FOR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT
Coastal adaptation is an on-going and iterative process that
will benefit from periodic evaluation of performance
coupled with an adaptive management process to fine-tune
implementation.
Once coastal adaptation measures are implemented, there will
likely be considerable interest in how theyperorm. Policymakers
will be keen to demonstrate that the measures are benecial to the
citizenry. Tey
will also want to assuage stakeholders who have borne some o the
costs o the measures. Evaluation isthe process o reviewing and
analyzing all relevant data and inormation required to determine i
the seto adaptation options are meeting expectations. I measures do
not perorm according to expectations,they must be adjusted. Te
process o refecting on and adjusting the course o action based on
evaluationresults, new inormation, and changing conditions is
reerred to as adaptive management.
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chapter 1
INTRODUCTION
15
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16
1.1 BACKGROUNDCoasts and the worlds oceans are crucial to lie on
Earth,they support livelihoods, and are vital to the globaleconomy
in many ways. Coastal ecosystems exist at theinterace between
terrestrial and marine environments.Tey include some o the most
diverse and dynamicenvironments on earth. Tis narrow band o the
earths
surace attracts human populations because it is a ocalpoint or
economic growthaccounting or a majorityshare o humanitys
inrastructure, transportation andtrade, energy processing, tourism,
and recreation.Coastal ecosystems provide a myriad o
ecologicalgoods and services. Tey provide habitat and nurseriesor
the majority o commercially important marine shand shellsh species,
and provide ood security andlivelihoods or over 1 billion people.
Tey oer stormsurge protection, erosion control, and food
mitigation.Tey also help retain nutrients and sediments and
lterpollutants. Tus, the socioeconomic and ecologicalimportance o
the coastal zone is virtually unparalleled.
Considering that the majority o humans
reside along coasts, coastal regions have
become uniquely important to the well-
being o society and the need or proactive
action to adapt to climate changes is ever
more pressing.
Global climate change already impacts and willcontinue to impact
coastal communities, ecosystems,and many acets o peoples lives in
the coastal zone where approximately 2.7 billion peopleover 40%o
the world's populationlive. Even without climatechange, coastal
areas ace a litany o problems associatedwith population growth,
habitat change, resource overexploitation and degradation, water
pollution, andchanges in reshwater fows. Climate change is
expectedto ampliy many o these and other stresses on coastal
areas. Tis in turn increases the need and urgency toinclude
coastal adaptation as part o eective coastalmanagement. As a
consequence o these realities,climate change is considered by many
to be one o themost important challenges o the 21st century and
apriority or immediate action or coastal areas.
In 2007, the Global Climate Change eam in theUnited States
Agency or International Development(USAID) Bureau or Economic
Growth, Agriculture
and rade developed guidance to help USAID Missionsand partners
account or and address vulnerabilitiesto climate variability and
change in their projectsand programs. Te document, Adapting to
ClimateVariability and Change A Guidance Manual or
Development Planning (USAID, 2008), is structuredaround a
sixstep vulnerability and adaptation (V&A)process1. Tis process
helps planners and stakeholdersto assess vulnerability to climate
variability and change,and to identiy, assess, select, implement,
and evaluateadaptation options that reduce climate impacts.
Te V&A Manual was intended as general guidance onthe ull
range o climate concerns and impacted sectors.It provides links to
important sources o inormationand tools and oers a broad overview o
methods andbest practices or conducting vulnerability
assessments
and evaluating adaptation measures. Te V&A Manualincludes
case studies illustrating some o these bestpractices.
Tis coastal adaptation Guidebook is a companiondocument to the
V&A Manual and provides thepractitioner with more detailed and
sectorspecic
1 The six steps are: 1) Screen or vulnerability; 2) Identiy
adaptations; 3) Conduct analysis; 4) Select course o action;
5)Implement adaptations; and 6) Evaluate adaptations
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INTRODUCTION
17
guidance or responding to climate variability andchange impacts
on coastal areas. Te emphasis is ondeveloping country contexts.
Te Guidebooks primary goals are to:
Advance understanding o climate change impactsalong coasts,
vulnerability, and approaches or
mainstreaming coastal adaptation measures intodevelopment
policies, plans, and programs
Provide practical adaptation options or respondingto the impacts
o climate variability and change onthe coast
Draw lessons rom experience on how to overcomeimplementation
barriers and utilize an adaptivemanagement approach to coastal
climate adaptation
ERMINOLOGY
Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or
expected climatic changes or their impacts,
so as to reduce harm or exploit benefcial
opportunities.
Climate change:Any change in weather
averaged over time due to natural variability or
because o human activity.
Climate variability:Variations in the mean
state and other statistics (such as standard
deviations, the occurrence o extremes, etc.)
o the climate on all temporal and spatial
scales beyond that o individual weather
events. Examples o climate variability include
extended droughts, oods, and conditions
that result rom periodic El Nio and La Niaevents.
Hazard Mitigation: Sustained action taken
to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to lie and
property rom a hazard event. Considered as
one o our phases o emergency management,
together with preparedness, response, and
recovery.
Mitigation:Within a climate change context,
mitigation is a human intervention to actively
reduce the production o greenhouse gasemissions (reducing energy
consumption in
transport, construction, at home, at work etc.),
or to remove the gases rom the atmosphere
(sequestration)
Vulnerability: The degree to which a human
or natural system is susceptible to, or unable
to cope with, adverse eects o climate change.
Vulnerability is a unction o the character,
magnitude, and rate o climate variation to
which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity.
1.2 ROADMAP TOTHE GUIDEBOOKhe Guidebook ollows a common
approach, orcycle, to program development as shown in Figure1.1. he
approach is similar to the IntegratedCoastal Management (ICM)
policy cycle oten usedby coastal practitioners and includes the
ollowingsteps: vulnerability assessment (Step 1), planningand
selection o a course o action (Step 2), ormaladoption or
mainstreaming o adaptation actions (Step3), implementation (Step
4), and evaluation (Step 5).
Tis highlights a central message o the Guidebook:the process o
coastal planning and action is notradically changed by applying a
climate lens. While theprocess and good practices o planning and
programmanagement apply equally to climate change as theydo to
other coastal issues, the Guidebook will showthat some o the
strategies o coastal managementare infuenced by climate change
considerations. Forexample, there will be greater emphasis on
naturebased adaptations and a longer planning horizon mustbe taken
into account.
Each chapter o the Guidebook reers to one o theve steps o the
program cycle. Chapter 2 ocuses ondiagnosis o coastal climate
change impacts, trends, andvulnerability. Chapter 2 also summarizes
current stressesand threats to coastal areas rom development
pressuresand weaknesses in management.
Coastal communities are likely to ace a numbero climateimpacted
issues and challengessomein the near term and others within the
next several
years or decades. Chapter 3 provides guidance onsetting
priorities and ormulating adaptation goals.It also provides a list
o 17 adaptation measures andsummarizes the criteria or evaluating
and selectingadaptations.
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18
Coastal adaptation requires a mandate and unding.Chapter 4
describes how coastal V&A can bemainstreamed into public
planning and budgetingprocesses and policies at national,
sub-national, andlocal scales. ICM experience has taught us that
the list opotential obstacles to successul mainstreaming is
long.Tis chapter presents lessons learned on overcoming
these obstacles and ofers strategies and preconditionsor
sustained mainstreaming o coastal adaptation.
Ater the adaptation options have been evaluated andselected and
once there is a ormal mandate and unding
to proceed, you are ready to take action. Chapter5 ocuses on
making adaptation plans operationaland overcoming typical obstacles
to successulimplementation.
Coastal adaptation is not a one-time event. It is anadaptive and
iterative process. Chapter 6 ocuses
on evaluating the progress o the actions that areundertaken and
adapting to changing conditions basedon valid reasons and
circumstances.
Step 1
Assess
vulnerability
Chapter 2Assess climate
change
impacts,
trends and
vulnerability
Step 2
Select course
o action
Chapter 3Prioritize
issues and
defne
adaptation
goals
Analyze
and select
adaptation
measures
Step 3
Mainstream
coastal
adaptation
Chapter 4Mainstream
coastal
adaptation in
policy, plans,
and programs
Secure
mandate and
unding
Step 4
Implement
Adaptation
Chapter 5Implement
adaptations
Take actions to
build capacity
and avoid
implemenntation
barriers
Step 5
Evaluate or
adaptive
management
Chapter 6Evaluate
adaptations
Take adaptive
actions
Figure 1.1 A coastal adaptation
roadmap applies a climate lens to theICM policy cycle often used
by coastalpractitioners
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INTRODUCTION
19
Each chapter o the Guidebook reers to one o theve steps o the
program cycle. Chapter 2ocuses ondiagnosis o coastal climate change
impacts, trends, andvulnerability. Chapter 2 also summarizes
current stressesand threats to coastal areas rom development
pressuresand weaknesses in management.
Coastal communities are likely to ace a numbero climateimpacted
issues and challengessomein the near term and others within the
next severalyears or decades. Chapter 3 provides guidance onsetting
priorities and ormulating adaptation goals.It also provides a list
o 17 adaptation measures andsummarizes the criteria or evaluating
and selectingadaptations.
Coastal adaptation requires a mandate and unding.Chapter 4
describes how coastal V&A can bemainstreamed into public
planning and budgeting
processes and policies at national, subnational, andlocal
scales. ICM experience has taught us that the list opotential
obstacles to successul mainstreaming is long.Tis chapter presents
lessons learned on overcomingthese obstacles and oers strategies
and preconditionsor sustained mainstreaming o coastal
adaptation.
Ater the adaptation options have been evaluated andselected and
once there is a ormal mandate and undingto proceed, you are ready
to take action. Chapter5 ocuses on making adaptation plans
operationaland overcoming typical obstacles to
successulimplementation.
Coastal adaptation is not a onetime event. It is anadaptive and
iterative process. Chapter 6 ocuseson evaluating the progress o the
actions that areundertaken and adapting to changing conditions
basedon valid reasons and circumstances.
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chapter 2
ASSESS VULNERABILITY
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21
his chapter irst provides an overview o climatechange
observations and trends in the coastal zone, theirimpacts on
coastal sectors, and the panoply o existingthreats to human and
natural ecosystems in the coastalzone. Climate change only ampliies
these threatsand urther increases the challenges o
strategicallymanaging the coasts and seas and their
extraordinary
but shrinking resources. Te chapter then explores ourcritical
actors: climate change projections, exposureto climate change,
sensitivity to climate change, andthe capacity o society to cope
with actual or expectedclimate changes (adaptive capacity and
resiliency ocoastal ecosystems). Coastal vulnerability hotspots
arealso highlighted.
2.1 GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE AND THREATS TO
THE WORLDS COASTSTere is scientic consensus that increases in
greenhousegases in the atmosphere drive the warming o air andsea
temperatures and cause the worlds oceans to acidiyrom the carbon
dioxide they absorb. Even i greenhousegases were capped today, air
and sea temperatureswill continue to rise as a result o past
emissionsasgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere have a lietimeo
between 10 and several thousand years. Warmingo air and sea induces
precipitation change, sea levelrise, and more extreme weather
events (e.g., stormsand sea surge). Te most signicant and
immediate
consequences o these climate changes or the worldscoasts include
coastal erosion, looding, drought,saltwater intrusion, and
ecosystem change. Tere arealso other health, economic and social
impacts.
Tese climate changes and impacts are already aectingcoastal
areas and ecosystems and projections or thecoming decades paint a
somber picture. able 2.1summarizes observations and trends o the
eectso increased greenhouse gases on coastal and oceansystems.
Rising sealevel poses a severe threat to countrieswhere their
coastal regions have heavy concentrations
o population and economic activity. Trough the20th century,
global rise o sea level contributed toincreased coastal inundation,
erosion and ecosystemloss (IPCC, 2007a). Until recently, studies o
sea levelrise typically predicted a 01 meter rise during the
21stcentury. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) anticipates that sea level willrise by 0.6
m or more by 2100 (IPCC, 2007c). Oceanthermal expansion was
expected to be the dominatingactor behind this rise. However, new
data on rates odeglaciation (the uncovering o land previously
coveredby a glacier) in Greenland and Antarctica suggest
thatglacial melt may play a signicant role in creating aneven
greater rise in sea leveli.e., 13 meters in thiscentury (Dasgupta
et al., 2007). A rise o this amountwould displace hundreds o
millions o people in thedeveloping world.
Sea level rise and other changes brought on by climatechange can
aect landbased activities (see Figure 2.1)and coastal ecosystems,
especially wetlands and coralrees, and have serious implications or
the wellbeingo societies dependent on coastal ecosystems or
goodsand services. Rises in marine/coastal water suracetemperatures
lead to the bleaching and widespreadmortality o coral rees.
Further, saltwater will displaceor at least intrude coastal
aquiers; and estuarinesystems will likely become more brackish.
Alterationsto estuarine and marine ecosystems will have
potentially
severe impacts on sheries and the goods and servicesprovided by
marine and coastal biodiversity.
As more carbon dioxide (CO2) dissolves in the oceans,
they become more acidic (decreased seawater pH). Tiscreates the
potential or widespread eects on marineecosystems. It may inhibit
calcication, which willthreaten the survival o coralree ecosystems.
It willinhibit the growth o calcareous algae at the base o theood
web and o shellorming marine organisms (such
VULNERABILIY ASSESSMEN
Assess climate change projections
Assess exposure to climate change
Assess sensitivity to climate change
Assess health o coastal habitats and
ecosystems
Assess adaptive capacity
A 0.5 C increase in sea surace temperature
is associated with a 40 percent increase in
hurricane requency and activity. Saunders and
Lea, Nature, January 29, 2008
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able 2.1 A Summary o climate change observations and trends in
the coastal zone
Coastal Impact Observations Projected Trends
Sea Level Rise
For the 20th century, sea levels rose at a rate o 1.7 to1.8
mm/yr
In the last decade, the worldwide average rate wasmeasured to be
3.0 mm/yr
Coastal erosion is increasingly observed around theworld; it can
be related to either sea level rise orsubsidence, or both
Sea levels are expected to rise by at least 0.6 metersby the
centurys end; glacial melt is expected to
increase this riseCoastal ooding could grow tenold or more by
the2080s, aecting more than 100 million people per yeardue to
sea-level rise, especially in Southeast Asia
It is projected that seawater intrusion due to sea-level rise
could severely aect aquaculture in heavily-populated mega-deltas,
such as in Southeast Asia
A one-meter rise in sea level could inundate 17%o Bangladesh and
completely ood the Republic oMaldives, reduce Bangladeshs rice
arming land by haland aect millions o livelihoods
A 2C increase in temperature could result in the losso a number
o island states
Sea Surface
Temperature
Change
Between 1970 and 2004, sea surace temperatures
around the planet rose between 0.2-1.0C, with amean increase o
0.6C
The Caribbean Sea has warmed by 1.5C in the last100 years
Observations since 1961 show that the ocean hasbeen absorbing
more than 80% o the heat added to
the climate system
Changes in water temperature caused wide scale coralbleaching in
the Asia region, damaging as much as 75-100% o coral in the
Philippines in 1998
By 2100, temperatures are projected to rise in thetropical
Atlantic (2-4C), Pacifc (1.5-3.5C) and Indian(3C) Oceans
Increases in sea surace temperature o about 1-3Care projected to
result in more requent coralbleaching events and widespread mor
tality
Studies project that with a 1C increase in sea
suracetemperatures, all coral rees in the Great Barr ier
Ree,Southeast Asia and the Car ibbean could be bleached
Increased
Frequencyof Extreme
Weather
Events
Increases in category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones,hurricanes and
typhoons during the 20th century havebeen reported
Tropical cyclone activity has increased since 1970, witha trend
towards longer lived storms and storms o
greater intensity
Mass mortality o mangrove species in the Caribbeanhas been
attributed to the increased requencies ohurricanes in the
region
El Nio events have become more requent, persistentand intense
during the last 20 years compared to theprevious 100
Models project a likely increase o peak windintensities and
increased mean and peak near-storm
precipitation in uture tropical cyclones
The population exposed to ooding by storm surgeswill increase
over the 21st century, especially in South,Southeast and East
Asia
Precipitation
Change
Precipitation has increased by up to 10% in theNorthern
Hemisphere and decreased in otherregions (e.g., North and West
Arica, parts o theMediterranean and the Car ibbean)
The requency and severity o drought has increased insome
regions, such as par ts o Asia and Arica
Very dry areas have more than doubled since the
1970sAustralia incurred over US$13 billion in droughtdamage
between 1982-2003
Projections or Latin America show a general yearround drop in
seasonal precipitation o up to 60%with the greatest eects elt in
Mexico and CentralAmerica
Precipitation change is very likely to increase therequency o
ash oods and large-area oods in manyregions
In Tarawa, Kiribati, it is projected that drought damagescould
to reach 18% o the gross domestic product by2050
Ocean
Acidification Since 1750, an average decrease in pH o 0.1 units
has
been observed
It is projected that the pH o the worlds oceans couldall by up
to a ur ther 0.3 0.4 units by 2100, resultingin the lowest ocean pH
levels in 20 million years
Sources: IPCC, 2007a, b; IUCN, 2007.
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ADAPTING TO COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE
23
as scallops), and it will stunt thegrowth o calcied skeletons in
manyother marine organisms, includingcommercial sh species.
Rising sealevel coupled withincreased sea surace
temperatures
is expected to contribute to morerequent and severe extreme
weatherevents, such as coastal storms. Tese,in turn, will generate
larger waves,storm surges, and increased coastalerosion. Annually,
about 120 millionpeople are exposed to tropical cyclonehazards
alone; storms killed 250,000people between 1980 and 2000(IPCC,
2007a).
Te recent human tragedies o the
December 2004 Indian Oceantsunami, Hurricane Katrina (United
States, August2005), Cyclone Sidr (Bangladesh, November 2007)
andthe Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar, May 2008) prove thatcoastal
calamities can overwhelm resources and disasterresponses o
developed and less developed nations alike.Each coastal disaster
provides tangible examples o thepotential impacts that may unold
during the nextcentury as a result o global warming and associated
sealevel rise. As real disasters unold around us, the needor global
action today becomes ever more obvious andpressing.
Rainall patterns are also changing and the eectso El Nio and La
Nia episodes have worsened.Tis has resulted in increased cyclones,
fooding anddrought cycles. Runo rom more intense precipitation
and changes in seasonal reshwater fows in manycoastal
environments can result in broad ecosystemchanges. Tis includes
changes in coastal erosion andsedimentation to which mangroves,
estuaries, and coralrees are particularly vulnerable. Meanwhile,
nutrientrich runo under conditions o higher sea suracetemperature
will likely promote coastal hypoxia orseasonal hypoxic events.
Changing weather patternsaect the distribution and range o species
and disruptthe natural balance o many ecosystems and this has
potential impacts on sheries. When bacteria, viruses,mosquitoes
or other disease vectors change theirgeographical range as a result
o global warming,diseases also spread.
Figure 2.1 Vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge
Source: Maryland Commission on Climate Change,Adaptation &
Response Working Group. 2008
Erosion impacts both public and private investments which
are oten built too close to the shore or do not consider
appropriate building techniques or dynamic shorelines.
CORAL REEFS AND SEASURFACE EMPERAURE RISE
Scientists estimate the world has already lost
30% o its coral rees, mostly rom the eects
o overfshing, nutrient pollution, and habitatconversion, but
coral bleaching and increasingly
acidic seasboth associated with climate
changeare exacerbating these eects and
pushing many coral rees over the edge. With
climate change, more than 80% o the worlds
coral rees may die within decades.
Sources: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007
and Nelleman, et al., 2008
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In short, climate change is increasing the requencyo natural
disasters with overarching impacts on thehealth and resilience o
coastal ecosystems and theglobal economy. Sea level rise; more
requent andsevere extreme weather events; increased looding;and the
degradation o reshwater, sheries and othercoastal resources could
impact hundreds o millions o
people. Te socioeconomic costs on coasts will escalate(IPCC,
2007a). Tis occurs at a time when there is anever increasing human
dependence on coastal resourcesand growing populations in the
coastal zone. In someregions already stressed with overpopulation,
poverty,internal confict, resource overuse and the spread odisease,
these impacts rom climate change can bedevastating.
able 2.2 lists the many impacts o climate changeon coastal
sectors and concerns. It highlights that the worlds coastal regions
are already under assault as a
result o coastal development patterns and habitat
loss,overshing, pollution, and other environmentallydamaging
activities. Climatic changes combine with
and ampliy existing nonclimate stressors to make suchcoastal
communities even more vulnerable.
Mangroves, coral rees, estuaries, seagrass beds,
dunecommunitiesand the rich biodiversity provided bythese and other
systems on or near shorelines servecritical ecological unctions
that are important to human
society in the ace o climate change. For example, theyserve as
vital nurseries and habitat or sheries, andprovide ood security and
livelihoods or over one billionpeople; provide protection rom
storms and wave surges;reduce impacts rom fooding; provide
shoreline naturaldeenses; control erosion; provide water storage
andgroundwater recharge; retain nutrients and sediments;and lter
pollutants. When these critical resources arecompromised, coastal
ecosystems become weakened andunhealthy and are less resilient to
the eects o climatechange and variability. Hence, an important
element oany adaptation strategy is to identiy and reduce those
humanbased stresses on coastal ecosystems that can becontrolled.
By doing this, we can work with nature toincrease ecosystem
resilience and thereby increase theability o coasts to cope with
climate change.
able 2.2 Treats to the coastal environment
Sector Climate Change Threats Other Human Threats
Coral Reefs,
Coastal
Wetlands and
Ecosystems
Loss o coral rees rom coral bleaching and oceanacidification
Loss or migration of coastal wetland ecosystems,including salt
mar shes and mangroves
Runo rom more intense precipitation causingcoastal erosion, and
sedimentation adversely aectingestuaries and coral rees
Nutrient rich runo under conditions o higherseasurface
temperature promoting coastal hypoxia andmarine dead zones
Change in the distribution and abundance ocommercially valuable
marine species
Increased spread oexotic and invasive species
30 percent o the worlds coral reefs have been lostas a
consequence o overfshing, pollution, and habitatdestruction
Intense coastal development and habitat loss
Pollution and marine dead zonesConversion of mangroves and
wetlands ormariculture
Disrupt ion o the quantity, quality, and timing ofreshwater
inflows to estuaries
Damage to seagrass beds rom sedimentation,recreational boating,
fshing and tourism
Coral mining or construction and lime making
Oil spills rom shipping
Spread oinvasive species
Coastal reinorcement disrupts natural shorelineprocesses
Sand and gravel mining o riverbeds and beaches
Capture
Fisheries
Overall decline in ocean productivity
Eutrophication and coral mortality leading to reducedfsh
catch
Loss or shifts in critical fish habitat
Temperature shifts causing migration o fshes
Extreme events, temperature increases and oxygendepletion
reducing spawning areas in some regions
Temperature changes aecting the abundance anddistribution o
marine pathogens
Ocean acidification and increases in temperaturedamaging coral
rees
Over-harvesting
Destructive fishing practices (e.g., bottom trawling,dynamite
fshing, beach seining)
Land-based sources opollution (sewage, industrialwaste, nutrient
runo, etc.)
Sedimentation o coastal systems rom land-basedsources
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Sector Climate Change Threats Other Human Threats
Mariculture
Increases in water temperature could result inunpredictable
changes in culture productivity
Environmental changes could increase stress andvulnerability to
pathogens and parasites in culturedorganisms
Overall decline in ocean productivity reduces supplieso wild fsh
used or fsh meal or mariculture sector
Changes in weather patterns and extreme weatherevents reduce
productivity and damage operations(loss o inrastructure and
stock)
Overexploitation o juveniles and larvae seed stockor fsh
arms
Release o chemicals, nutrients and sediment in pondeuents
Spreading of pathogens and disease to localecosystems and
neighboring culture operations
Loss of protective habitats rom improper siting omariculture
acilities
Recreation
and Tourism
Storms, erosion, and precipitation damaginginrastructure and
causing losses to beaches
Compromised water quality and increasing beachclosures
Increases in tourism insurance costs on high-riskcoasts
Improper siting o tourist acilities
Alteration o the shoreline, coastal processes andhabitat
Strain on freshwater resources or tourist acilities
Marine pollution and habitat disruption romrecreational
boating
Freshwater
Resources
Saltwater intrusion o reshwater sources
Encroachment o saltwater into estuaries and coastalrivers
Waves and storm surges reaching urther inland,
increasing coastal inundation and floodingDecreased
precipitation, enhancing saltwater intrusion,and exacerbating water
supply problems
Discharge o untreated sewage and chemicalcontamination o coastal
waters
Unregulated freshwater extraction and withdrawal
ogroundwater
Upstream dams
Enlargement and dredging o waterways
Human
Settlements
Coastal inundation causing relocation inland
Building and inrastructure damage rom increasingcoastal storm
intensity and ood exposure
Sea level rise raising water levels during storm surge
Reduced clearance under bridges
Overtopping o coastal deense structures
Sea level rise, erosion, and extreme weather eventsleading to
degradation o natural coastal deensestructures
Rapid increase in coastal development projected toimpact 91% o
all inhabited coasts by 2050
Inappropriate siting o inrastructure
Shoreline armoring
Habitat conversion and biodiversity loss
Human Health
Heat stress rom extremely hot periods
Injuries, illness, and loss o lives due to extremeweather
events
Malnutrition and ood shortages during extremeevents
Increased spread o vector-borne disease (dengueever and
malaria), waterborne diseases (diarrhea) and
toxic algae (ciguatera)
Pollution and water contamination
Conflict
Coastal land loss leading to coastal land and resourcescarcity
or loss, and human migration
Water use conicts due to scarcity
Population migration to urban areas as oceanproductivity and ood
availability declines and fshersare displaced
Displacement and loss o shore access resulting romtourism and
coastal development
Sources: IPCC, 2007a, b; IUCN, 2007
2.2 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Assessing a coastal areas vulnerability to the impacts oclimate
change involves understanding: 1) the climateprojections or a given
region or locale, 2) what is atrisk (climate change exposure and
sensitivity), and 3)
the capacity o society to cope with the expected oractual
climate changes (adaptive capacity). Combined,these three actors
dene the vulnerability o peoplein a place to climate change. Figure
2.1 illustrates thisrelationship, which is described in the
subsequent oursubsections.
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Figure 2.2 Vulnerability ramework
CLIMATE
CHANGE
projections and
trends
SENSITIVITY
The degree to
which the coast
andpeople areimpacted
EXPOSURE
Types and amount
o assets at risk
POTENTIAL
IMPACT
That may occur
without planned
adaptation
ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY
Ability to cope
with actual or
expected changes
VULNERABILITY
Source: Adapted rom Allison, 2007.
2.2.1 ASSESSING CLIMATE
PROJECTIONS FOR A COASTAL AREAailoring adaptation measures to
climate changerequires inormation on climate processes and
impactsor specic coastal areas over a timerame much longerthan the
typical 510 years used or planning and policy.When assessing
vulnerability and what to do about it,it is reasonable to use a 100
year timeramesince we
know climate change impacts will grow stronger withtime.
Successul adaptation requires setting clear geographicboundaries
within which to ocus the assessment andactions. Tis is especially
dicult in coastal areas, butit is important. Here, the
interconnectedness o issuesis amplied by the fows o water rom
rivers andocean currents. A tendency is to incorporate too
manyadaptation elements. Good practices in coastal climatechange
adaptation include:
Match boundaries to issues o concern
I issues are rooted in the larger watershed, theanalysis and
possibly the implementation must bebroader, but avoid overextending
the scope o theeort
Dierentiate between boundaries or analysis andthose or
policymaking and action (the latter mustremain ocused and is
narrower) and work acrosspolitical boundaries when necessary
Understand inshore ocean currents so that, orexample, an
analysis o biological vulnerabilityincludes consideration o the
dispersal patterns oimportant larvae in the assessment areas and
actions
Recognize the temporal and spatial scope opopulationse.g.,
coastal populations requentlyengage in seasonal employment as
shers, armers,crew on ships; and the number o people in seaside
resorts changes dramatically between high and lowseasons
Recognize the inherent dynamics o the naturalenvironment, such
as seasonal and interannualvariations in beach sand movement, and
sh stockabundance and structure
Larger scale climate change models and projections,such as those
o the IPCC, as well as online regionalmapping tools and downscaling
models (e.g., theSERVIR Climate Mapper http://www.iagt.org/
downloads.aspx#svorhttp://www.servir.net/ and thePRECIS Regional
Climate Modeling System http://precis.metoice.com/ ) provide a
starting point tounderstand an overall context, but lack the
resolutionand specicity needed to assess the vulnerability ospecic
coastal areas.
hey can, however, provide a starting point romwhich to overlay
local knowledge on past and currentclimate trends or the specic
place. For example, localknowledge can help answer the basic
question: Has
http://www.iagt.org/downloads.aspx#svhttp://www.iagt.org/downloads.aspx#svhttp://www.iagt.org/downloads.aspx#svhttp://www.servir.net/http://www.servir.net/http://precis.metoffice.com/http://precis.metoffice.com/http://precis.metoffice.com/http://www.iagt.org/downloads.aspx#svhttp://precis.metoffice.com/http://precis.metoffice.com/http://www.servir.net/http://www.iagt.org/downloads.aspx#sv
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the requency, magnitude, or timing o precipitation,extreme
weather events and other climate impactschanged in the last several
decades? A review o historicrecords or climate variability and
hazard events in aspecic area can also help validate the
projections.Spatial data and maps to visualize biophysical
impacts(e.g., shoreline, storm surge, and fooding maps) alsoaid in
this exercise.
o develop climate change projections or a coastal area,assess
available inormation and ormulate assumptionsto create scenarios
that refect a range o low to highdegrees o change. Stakeholders can
use these scenarios toassess vulnerabilities and identiy issues and
adaptationmeasures. Scenarios can also help move dialogue roma
debate about exactlyhowthe climate will change to adiscussion among
key stakeholders, experts and projectsta on the implicationso the
dierent scenarios (high,medium, low change). Projections should
includechanges in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise
andsevere storm events along the coastal watershed (bays,
estuaries, nearshore currents and rivers).
At the end o this assessment phase, there should be twoor more
projections o climate change and the potentialimpacts o each to the
environment. Tere should alsobe a constituency o stakeholders who
understand thecontext o the place relative to climate change.
At this point, it is useul to prepare an issue statementthat
provides a concise and actual description o the
climate change challenges that aect the community.All
stakeholders should contribute to the statement toensure there is
shared understanding o the problem. Anexample might look like:
Greater requency and intensity o storms on theisland o Antigua
puts at risk the health and saety o
the population and inrastructure. It is in the longterminterest
o the community to take measures to increasestorm hazard
preparedness and resilience.
USE BES AVAILABLEINFORMAION ANDRADIIONAL KNOWLEDGE
By integrating the best available knowledge
and involving local communities, it is possible
to take responsible action in situationswhere there are uncer
tainties and imperect
inormation. Following the precautionary
approach, actions should not be impeded
by an absence o ull scientifc certainty. A
skillul adaptation approach is to look at the
trends suggested by existing models along
with the trends that are beginning to show
themselves in the region in question and to
plan accordingly. Trends will continue to change
and emerge or generations to comeeven
should mitigation eorts greatly reduce global
greenhouse gas emissions.
2.2.2 ASSESSING EXPOSURE
TO CLIMATE CHANGESExposure is dened as the types o valued assets
thatare at risk o being impacted by changes in the climatesystem as
well as by ocean acidication. Tese assetsinclude social assets
(people, health, education),economic assets (property,
inrastructure, and income),
and ecological assets (natural resources and
ecologicalservices).
o select a course o action or adapting to climatechange,
communities need to answer several questions,such as: What are the
most important assets thatare at risk? What is the threshold at
which impactswill occur? For example, in amboko, the
SolomonIslandswhere coastal communities are exposed toseasonal
loodingcommunitylevel assessmentsidentied drinking water as the
most valued asset(IFRC, 2005).
When determining the most important assets exposedto climate
change risks consider:
Impact to critical systems: Is a vital ood (e.g., shery),saety
or economic asset at risk?
SPAIAL DAA
Maps and measurements o coastal areas are
invaluable to understand how climate impacts
will play out.
Shorelinemappingcoastalelevation,sea
level rise projections, erosion rates, storm
surge inundation, land use and land cover
Socioeconomiccontextcoastalresource
uses, demographics, development density,
and administrative boundaries
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Attitudes towards risk: What is the communityslevel o risk
perception and tolerancee.g., coastalcommunities with tourism may
perceive erodingbeaches as a higher risk than those without
tourism.
Impacts on current government/stakeholder priorities:Does the
potential impact put a major economicdevelopment priority at risk?
Will there be an impacton a social problem or which signicant
resourceshave already been allocated?
Level o certainty about the projected consequence oclimate
change: I there is high uncertainty about the
likelihood o a potential risk, exposure to the riskmay be
considered a low priority.
Reversibility o changes that may occur in the absenceo eective
management response: Can the asset berecovered ater being impacted?
I not, the issuemight be a high priority. An example is a coral
ree
ecosystem. Once the coral animals die, the reestructure breaks
down with no easy way to regainthe ecological goods and services o
habitat, sheries,tourism, and storm protection.
2.2.3 ASSESSING SENSITIVITY
TO CLIMATE CHANGETe potential impact o climate change is
determinedby an assets level o exposure and its sensitivityi.e.,the
degree o likely damagei exposed to climatechange. For example, 100
houses along the coast may
be exposed to fooding. However, the 60% that are builton raised
oundations are less sensitive to damage romfood waters. able 2.3
highlights assets and actorsthat can make them sensitive to the
impacts o climatechange.
Healthy ecosystems and social groups have signicantability to
absorb impacts. An example o this isVietnam, which experiences
eight to 10 major coastalstorms annually. idal fooding associated
with thesestorms usually leads to the breaching o sea dykes
andeconomic losses to the local population. o protectcoastal assets
and improve livelihoods, the Vietnam RedCross has been planting and
protecting thousands ohectares o mangrove orests along the
northeast coast
able 2.3 Examples o exposed coastal assets and actors o
sensitivity
Groupings Coastal Assets Exposed Dimensions of Sensitivity
SocialPeople, health, education, sanitation, historic
and cultural assets, social capital
Material assets and savings, secure land tenure,
community cohesiveness, the state o public
health, sanitation conditions in the community
Built environment Property and coastal inrastructure, ports and
shipping
Siting o buildings and coastal inrastructure
and construction methods, availability o
insurance systems and emergency unds
Ecological
inrastructure
Natural resources, wildlie, coastal watersheds,
ecological values, protected areas, unique
ecosystems and landscape/seascape amenities
Existing condition and health o coastal ecosystems
and natural barriers to coastal ooding, abundance
and variety o natural resources and unique
ecosystems, quality o coastal stewardship eor ts
Source: Adapted rom Kaiser, 2006
SERVIR can integrate and downscale global inormation, assess
vulnerabilities rom natural hazards in real time, and
evaluate
past and uture climate trends, as seen here in this example
o
a CATHALAC/USAID study o regional biodiversity and climate
change. For more inormation go to www.servir.net
http://www.servir.net/http://www.servir.net/
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o Vietnam since 1994. Te mangroves have reducedthe cost o dyke
maintenance by millions o dollarsannually and reduced damages rom
coastal storms.Similarly, ater the Indian Ocean sunami, a
regionaleort was initiated to create coastal Green Zones andprotect
mangrove orests as buers.
o assess the sensitivity o coastal assets exposed toclimate
change, it is useul to answer the ollowingquestions:
How and to what degree were social, economic and
ecological assets aected by past climate conditionsand coastal
hazard events?
What specic characteristics make groups or systemssensitive?
Was everyone equally impacted? I not, what were thedierences
between various individuals and groups?
What is the sensitivity o nonexposed assets? Forexample,
agriculture activities that take place awayrom the coast may rely
on a highly exposed andsensitive coastal road or port or export.
Losing thistransportation asset could result in a loss in the
valueo the agricultural assets.
Answers to these types o questions help in estimatingthe
likelihood and degree o potential impacts tosystems and assets. Tey
also help in identiying speciccharacteristics that make coastal
assets vulnerable/sensitive and the thresholds at which impacts
will likelyoccur. For each projection, assess what is exposed
andits sensitivity to various degrees o climate change. Youcan then
estimate the impacts by collecting data on thecosts o the assets,
number o people or inrastructurethat will be exposed.
Resilienceto coastal hazards and adaptive
capacity are linked. High levels o adaptivecapacity lead to an
increased likelihood o
being able to absorb impacts o climate
change and rebound. The Coastal Community
Resilience Guidebook provides benchmarks
and a methodology or conducting resilience
assessments in the coastal context. (USAID,
2007)
Swimming lessons or women in Zanzibar is important
or their new mar iculture livelihood venture. This also
builds their adaptive capacity to survive i their community
were to be hit by a large storm surge or tsunami.
2.2.4 ASSESSINGADAPTIVE CAPACITY Adaptive capacity reers to the
ability o society tochange in a way that makes it better equipped
tomanage its exposure and/or sensitivity to climaticinfuences. A
community with the capacities to adaptis likely to be more
resilient or able to recover romstressul events and conditions (see
text box). Reerringback to Figure 2.1, it is the rst two actors,
exposureand sensitivity, that dictate the gross vulnerability o
acoastal community and its potential susceptibility to
adverse impacts. Te third actor, adaptive capacity,refects a
communitys ability to manage, and therebyreduce, gross
vulnerability.
When you look at a communitys exposure, sensitivity,and adaptive
capacity as a whole, the result is netvulnerability. Net
vulnerability is the ability o acommunity to manage risk and thus
minimize orprevent potential impacts. For example, a coastalregion
could have high gross vulnerability, but relativelymoderate net
vulnerability as a result o its high adaptivecapacity. Te reverse
is also possiblei.e., a coastal area
with low gross vulnerability may be compromised by itslimited
degree o adaptive capacity, thereby increasingits net
vulnerability.
A broad range o actors refect adaptive capacity:
Political leadership and commitment
Resource availability (e.g., human, physical,technological, and
nancial)
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Institutional and governance networks andcompetence
Social capital and equity
Inormation technologies and communicationsystems
Health o environment
here are many studies with lists o determinantso adaptive
capacity. Most indicators are ocused onnational scale actors such
as gross domestic product,
poverty indices and demographics. Tese indicators arehelpul or
comparative purposes, but not very useulor local decisionmaking. On
a practical level, the aim
o assessing adaptive capacity is to answer questionssuch as:
How well do community members work togetheron coastal
development planning and coastalmanagement, including coastal
hazards?
What practices are currently employed to cope with
natural hazards? Who is responsible or developingand
implementing such measures? How eective arethey?
Are the public and decisionmakers inormed andengaged?
Do most people rely on the same activity or theirlivelihoods?
For example, does everyone rely onshing or agriculture, such that a
single event coulddestroy the livelihoods o many in the community
orcountry?
In an emergency, are there multiple means ocommunicating or
transporting people andsupplies? Or will damage to a single road,
bridge, ortelecommunications hub isolate a community?
How healthy are the ecosystems and how well arenatural resources
managed?
Adaptive capacity is not evenly distributed across andwithin
societies. Also, wealthy countries have greateradaptive capacity
than poorer countries (Nicholset al., 2007). Tis reality o adaptive
capacity hasbeen termed the climate divide (see text boxto the
let). In this sense, climate change is verymuch a development
issue. Also within countries,it is the case that women and poor
socioeconomicgroups have less adaptive capacity and are the
mostvulnerable (see text box on next page).
Assessing the adaptive capacity o a place or sectorhelps in
understanding why vulnerability exists in therst place. o reduce
vulnerability, stakeholders mustunderstand its root causes. Tese
are much deeper
societal issues than, or example, poorly constructedhouses being
located in areas o coastal erosion. Rootcauses might include
poverty, insecure property rights,natural resource dependency,
degraded resources, andweaknesses in institutions and political
assets (Adger,1999). Adaptive capacity can be strengthened
throughpolicies that enhance social and economic equity,reduce
poverty, improve natural resources and coastalmanagement, increase
public participation, generateuseul and actionable inor