Slide 1
Generation(Coal & Gas)
1Manish S // Rabbani // Goutham Y // Ratnesh K // Aslam SK1INDEXSr NoDescription1INDIAN POWER SECTOR AT A GLANCE2INDIA LOOKING AHEAD 3MISSION 20504EXPEDITIOUS CAPACITY ADDITION - DRIVERS5SCENARIO - POST PARIS MEET6COAL BASED GENERATION7GAS BASED GENERATION 8ROAD MAP / GOAL ~ 2025 & 205092050 ~ WHERE WE STAND ?
22Total Installed Capacity ~ 281 GW (As on 31.11.2015)Source : www.powermin.nic.inIndian Power Sector- At a Glance
33ECONOMY & ENERGY SECTORIndian EconomyExpected ~ Worlds Largest Economy by 2050
Energy FutureMultifold Increase in Electricity Generation Expected
Expected Demand *Energy Demand ~ 1500 GW by 2050
India ~ Looking Ahead ~ 2050
* World Energy Council44
WHAT WHEREVisionIncrease in Manufacturing Growth @ 12-14% AnnuallyAimIncrease in Manufacturing Share in GDP (16% in FY 2014-15 to 25% in FY 2021-2022)How Top Priority Sectors Develop Manufacturing CapabilityDefense SectorReduced Reliance on Imports by 30% (In 05 Years)Energy Future Multifold Increase in Electricity Generation *: Urban Area to Go Up ( 31 % to 41 % by 2031): Metros / Bullet Trains / Smart Cities: Digital India : Agricultural DevelopmentCapacity Addition1350 to 1500 GW by 2050 **
Make in IndiaMission Mode5* SOURCE : CEA** SOURCE : WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL
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Economic GrowthEnergy Demand *Per Capita20122047Transport Demand(Km) 5970 18700Residential Space(Sqm) 1.8 35Commercial Space (Sqm) 0.7 5.9Modern Energy Use (Kgoe)(Cooking-Rural) 61 183Drivers ~ Towards Capacity Addition
Govt Cant Afford Societal Divide Any Longer *SOURCE : NITI AAYOG ENERGY MIX REPORT
6Growth in Economic Activity ~ Lead to Demand for Energy6Commitment of Republic of IndiaPriority & Ist Commitment ~ Solar & WindHydro, Nuclear & Other Non- Carbon Resources ( Shall be developed to the Largest Possible Extent)What cannot be met by Non - Carbon Resources Shall be met by CoalScenario ~ Post Paris Climate Meet
Source : Economic Times / 15.12.2015 Indian Interlocutor
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COAL BASED GENERATION88Total Installed CapacityPlant Load FactorSource : www.powermin.nic.inScenario Coal Based Generation
DescriptionCapacityCentral Sector 49380 MWState Sector59450 MWPrivate Sector61307 MWTotal (30.11.2015)170137 MWTarget Actual 99LANDLANDIssues Land acquisition - R&R Typical Power Plant (1000 MW) ~ 15000 Tons Coal / DayAsh Handling Area ~ 66 % of Total Plant RequirementWay AheadOptimum Utilization of Land for Power Plant & AncillaryLand ~ Feasible for Long Term Economic JustificationDesirable ~ Proximity & Availability of Coal & Water
0.40.350.252014201720252050Land Requirement (Acre / MW)
Source : www.cseindia.org0.6
1010Integrated-Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)Enhanced Efficiency (Approx 46%)Clean Coal GasReduces Water RequirementTechnology
Carbon Capture & StorageMitigate the Contribution of EmissionsPost Capture, CO2 is injected through Pipeline Geo-sequestration
11CCSIGCC11
Auxiliary PowerSuper Ultra Mega Power Plant TechnologyEnhancement in Efficiency5.75 %5.00 %4.75 %4.00 %2015201720252050Adopting Energy Efficient EquipmentsConservation of EnergyEfficiency12Air Cooled CondensersActs as Condensing System ~ If Water is LimitedAlso Known as Dry Cooling Tower
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Fuel ~ Coal
1313DescriptionFigureAnnual Requirement ~ 01 GW ( Million Tonne)5Estimated Addition of Coal Power Plants (GW)650Estimated Life Span of Coal Power Plants (Years)35Total Coal Requirement ( BillionTonne )115.00Estimated Coal Reserves ~ India (Billion Ton)301.56Proportionate Share for Power Sector @ 70 %211.09Coal to Last For Indias Coal Reserves ~ to last Up to 100 Years Coal Production (CIL) is poised to grow @ 15% by 2022 (Against Present Rate of 7% )CIL ~ Additional Budget Provision of 15% on Mining Tech(FY 2015-2016)CIL ~ Next 7 Year Budget for Mining Tech : $ 25 BillionCommercial Mining License to State ~ Production to Increase *
Coal ~ Requirement & Reserves
Source : GSI / * Economic Times 15.12.2015 14
Coal Based Plants ~ ChallengesLikely Road-Blocks Sustainability ~ Carbon Capping ( Low Emission Pathway ) ~ 2 deg C sustainability IssueAvailability of Water & Land for Thermal Power StationsPoor Efficiency of Existing & Old Thermal Power StationsAvailability of Equipment Suppliers ~ Matching the Target / Delivering on TimeNeed of Consistent GCV coal for UMPPs / Fast Paced Technology AdvancementSustainability of Business ~ Bleeding DISCOMs / Low scheduling / Low PLFPolitical ~ Continuity of Policy & Stability of EstablishmentRegulatory Challenges
1515Planning & ManagingDecommissioning Retirement of Old & Inefficient Generation Units In Phases
Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) Super Critical Technology Implementation ( In Reduced Area)Hybrid Power plants Coal and SolarAutomatic Transfer of Coal LinkageIn case of Scrapping of Old Units & Replacement Ultra Super Critical Boiler TechnologyTowards Enhanced Efficiency ( 50 %) Swapping of Coal Reserves (On Merit)Based on the Proximity of Power PlantsPower Purchase AgreementPrior Purchase Agreement with BeneficiariesCOAL ~ TO REMAIN THE BACKBONE OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR
Strategy
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GAS BASED GENERATION17FY 2014-201518Scenario Gas Based Generation Constraints > 50 % of Installed Capacity ~ Inability to Acquire Fuel at a Commercially Viable Rate FY 2104-2015 ~ PLF : 22 % // Power Plants Financially Stranded
* mmscmd ~ million metric standard cubic meter per day1819
Fuel ~ Gas2014- 2015Gas Reserves
Clean Energy Green EnergyAllocation 30% for Electricity19
Gas Based Plants ~ ChallengesRoad-Blocks Only 30% of Gas Produced is Allocated for ~ Power Generation in IndiaLack of Permanent Linkage of Gas for Power Plants Identified Sedimentary Basins in India ~ 26 // Only 20 % ExploredIndia produces Less Gas (98.15 mmscmd) ~ Compared to Pakistan(109 mmscmd )Bangladesh Produces ~ 65 mmscmd Gas ( Much Smaller Industrial Base) : 2014 EstimatesExpected Gas Availability through TAPI (2020) is only 38 mmscmdD 6 Basin ~ Production Output is Minimal against Expectation 20
2021
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AgencyCapacity Addition Fossil FuelNTPC30 GWUMPP (5 Nos)20 GWState & Others( Incl Stranded Projects)80 GWTotal130 GWDescriptionCapacityInstalled (2015)280 GWAddition Plan ~ Renewables175 GWAddition Plan ~ Fossil Fuel130 GWAddition Plan ~ Others 25 GWTotal (2025)610 GWRoad Map 20252215 GW ( NTPC)+ 30 GW ( Others)15 GW ( NTPC)+ 20 GW ( UMPP) + 50 MW (Others)22
DescriptionCapacityInstalled (2025)610 GWAddition Plan ~ Renewables175 GWAddition Plan ~ Hydro 35 GWAddition Plan ~ Nuclear 40 GWAddition Plan ~ Fossil Fuel(125 + 125 + 100 +75 + 75) GW 500 GWTotal (2050)1360 GWRoad Map 205023
2324TYPEExisting (DEC -2015)GWShare(2015)%Addition(2015-2025)GW Addition(2025-2050)GWTotal(2050)GWShare(2050)%Renewables3612.8517517538628.38Hydro 4315.3525351037.58Nuclear62.14040463.38Gas258.9200251.84Fossil Fuel17060.7113050080058.82Total28010033075013601002050 ~ Where We Stand ?
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