CO 2 Life Fantastic Inez Fung University of California Berkeley University of California Museum of Paleontology March 6 2015.

CO2 Life FantasticCO2 Life Fantastic

Inez Fung

University of California Berkeley

University of California Museum of PaleontologyMarch 6 2015

Mauna Loa ObservatoryMauna Loa Observatory

UnitsUnitsUnits

• 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton

• 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons

• 1 kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 (=44/12) kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

ppm=parts per million by volume2 PgC, well-mixed in entire atm 1 ppm CO2

Bean leaf x4200

Life Terrestial: (i) PhotosynthesisLife Terrestial: (i) Photosynthesis

Life Terrestrial: (ii) Carbon CycleLife Terrestrial: (ii) Carbon Cycle• Growth, mortality, decay

• Population: {ages}

• Photosynthesis (climate, CO2, soil H2O, resource limitation)

• Decay (T, soil H2O,..)

120 PgC/yr 60 60

1200 PgC~101-102yr

800 PgC ~ 101yr

• Biomass depleted in 13C and 14C

• Contemporary 14C

Life Terrestrial: (iii) Atmospheric signature

Life Terrestrial: (iii) Atmospheric signature

• Seasonal asynchrony photosynthesis & decomposition net fluxes of CO2 to and from atm seasonal cycle of CO2 in atm• Annual imbalance carbon source/sink

photosynthesis

decomposition

May

Oct

DIC, NO3

depth

atm

remineralization

photosyn

Life Aquatic: (i) Marine productivity

Life Aquatic: (i) Marine productivity

Phytoplankton: ~2 weeks

Higher trophic levels: 101 yr +

Shells and carcasses sink --> sediments on ocean floor

DIC

Life Aquatic: (ii) chemical dissociationLife Aquatic: (ii) chemical dissociation

DIC = CO2 + HCO3- + CO3

=

1-2 % 80-90%

CO2

100 Pg C/yr +photosyn

lower DIC

+ uptakewer lower pH

+ CO2 (sfc water)

+ outgassing

Higher SST

+ CO2

+ outgassingVertical profile of Dissolved Inorganic C (DIC)reflects biology; biology lower 13C/C than water

Life Aquatic (iii): Long distance traveller

Life Aquatic (iii): Long distance traveller

Ocean Thermohaline Circulation: ~103 years

Life Geologic: Remnants of past lifeLife Geologic: Remnants of past life

Biologic materials that escape decomposition are compressed at high pressure and temperature for 100’s of millions of years to form coal, oil and natural gas

Carboniferous: ~300 million years ago

COAL

OIL

GAS

Life Fantastic: The Natural Carbon Cycle

Life Fantastic: The Natural Carbon Cycle

Carbon is continuously transformed and cycled

Residence time: Land ~10-100 yrs; Ocean ~100-1000 yrs

The only long-term sink is “leakage” to sediments

C OO

CO O

O OC

symmetric

bending 15 m

asymmetric 4.3 m

Greenhouse effect: Radiation at specific wavelengths excite CO2 into higher energy states: energy is “absorbed” by the CO2 molecules

Life Aerial: (i) Greenhouse EffectLife Aerial: (i) Greenhouse Effect

Natural Carbon Cycle is perturbed …Natural Carbon Cycle is perturbed …

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FF Emission is a one Way Flux to the atmosphere

Ultimate loss to sediments too slow: 38,100/0.2=200 kyr

Life Aerial: (ii) Atm CO2 is increasingLife Aerial: (ii) Atm CO2 is increasing

Mauna Loa Observatory

Current sampling in remote marine locations

Current sampling in remote marine locations

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Life Aerial (iii): CO2 is a long-distance traveller in the atmosphereLife Aerial (iii): CO2 is a long-distance traveller in the atmosphere

• Long-term increase• Seasonal cycle amplitude <10% of global mean• N-S gradient ~ 1% global mean

Why is CO2 increasing? (i) Fossil Fuel Combustion & Industrial Processes

Why is CO2 increasing? (i) Fossil Fuel Combustion & Industrial Processes

Robert Adres, CDIAC; Robert Corkery, Vesta Animation

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/multimedia/Annual-carbon-1751-2010-medRes.mp4

Fossil Fuel and Cement EmissionsFossil Fuel and Cement Emissions

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO2, 65% over 1990

Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminarySource: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2/

yr)

Cut and Burned

Why is CO2 Increasing? (ii) Large Store of

Carbon in tropics is disturbed

Why is CO2 Increasing? (ii) Large Store of

Carbon in tropics is disturbed

Reduced photosynthesis;Enhanced decomposition

Rondonia, Amazon: 2000Rondonia, Amazon: 2000












• Three different methods have been used to estimate land-use change emissions,indicated here by different shades of greySource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Total Global EmissionsTotal Global Emissions

Several QuestionsSeveral Questions

• How do we know that the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel emission?

• Where does the fossil fuel CO2 go?

• How fast will CO2 increase in the future?

Q1: How do we know the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel combustion?

Q1: How do we know the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel combustion?

CO2: increasing

13C/C: decreasing

14C/C: decreasing

--> addition of old C of biologic origin (coal, oil, natural gas)

SIO

Decrease in O2/N2 in atm --> combustion!

Decrease in O2/N2 in atm --> combustion!

SIO

Mauna Loa CO2 > South Pole CO2

MLO-SPO CO2 gradient increases with FF emission (96% in the northern

hemisphere)

MLO-SPO CO2 gradient increases with FF emission (96% in the northern

hemisphere)





Q2: Where are the elusive carbon sinks?

Q2: Where are the elusive carbon sinks?

Land and Oceans have absorbed the rest of the CO2

• Source: CDIAC Data; NOAA/ESRL Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)

• Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

26%9.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr

32.4±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%

+3.3±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%

10.6±2.9 GtCO2/yr29%

Calculated as the residualof all other flux components

15.8±0.4 GtCO2/yr44%

Recent Changes in Ocean Carbon

Chemistry

Recent Changes in Ocean Carbon

Chemistry

Surface ocean pCO2 increasing; follows the atmospheric record at Mauna Loa

pH has decreased by 0.04 in 20 years - carbonate more soluble

Carbonate ion decreasing:Tougher to precipitate

MLO

Ocean data from Hawaii Ocean Time Series (HOTS)http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/





Atm CO2 increase varies with climateAtm CO2 increase varies with climate

• 2000-2003: rapid increase because of reduced mid-latitude land uptake (drought)

• 2004: return of rains• reduced southern uptake

(Lovenduski et al. 2007; LeQuere et al. 2007)

• Increase in tropical sink?

Outlook: faster CO2 increase in the atm

Outlook: faster CO2 increase in the atm

• Recent - decreasing land and ocean carbon sink

• 21stC: the warming feeds the warming– capacity of land to store carbon decreases with

warming and droughts – capacity of oceans to store carbon decreases with

warming (decreased solubility), acidification, and increasing stratification (reduced biology with reduced mixing of nutrients from depth)

– fossil fuel emission faster than uptake bottleneck --> larger airborne CO2 fraction

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

ChangeRio de Janeiro, 1992

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

ChangeRio de Janeiro, 1992

• Ultimate objective: stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system

• Such a level should be achieved within a time frame to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

UNFCCC: Conference Of Parties (COP)UNFCCC: Conference Of Parties (COP)

(I) Emission Targets

• COP 3: Kyoto Protocol: Dec 1997– Binding targets for 37 industrialized

countries and the European Union to reduce GHG emissions.

– ~5% below 1990 levels over the 5 year period 2008-2012

50

Treaty Verification

Treaty Verification

Greenhouse Gas covered by the UN

Framework Convention for Climate

Change

Greenhouse Gas covered by the UN

Framework Convention for Climate

Change

51

Emissions weighted by 100-yr global warming potential (IPCC 2007)

CO2 fossil fuel use(56.6%)

Methods for Estimating National Emissions

Methods for Estimating National Emissions

United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) National inventories:

– Estimates anthropogenic emissions and removals (sinks)

– Based on socio-economic statistics– Self-reporting – varying degrees of

confidence

52

US Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission US Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission

DOE: Energy Information Agency:• inventory of fuels• Emission = Fuel weight x emission factor

EPA: eGRID• inventory of consumption• Emission = Activity x emission factor

EPA does not include bunker fuels

53

(Emission per ton steel)

(Steel Production)

US Emission Estimates – agree to 3%US Emission Estimates – agree to 3%

54

Measure directly at stack

Calculate from mass of fuel

55

Trust but VerifyTrust but Verify

CO2 Sampler

LAND

CO2 Sampler

Prevailing Wind

CO2

Tracer-Transport InversionCurrent errors of 100% or more for all gases.

Atmospheric CO2 Pattern Reflects Emission PatternAtmospheric CO2 Pattern Reflects Emission Pattern

Methods for Estimating EmissionsMethods for Estimating Emissions

• Bottom-up: UNFCCC National inventories – Estimates anthropogenic emissions and

removals (sinks)– Based on socio-economic statistics

• Top-Down: Tracer-transport inversion – Estimates net anthropogenic and natural

sources and sinks – Based on atmospheric and/or oceanic

measurements of the gases and models of air and water flow

57

Improving Independent Estimates of Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions

Improving Independent Estimates of Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions

58

• Deploy a CO2-sensing satellite

• Establish new atmospheric sampling stations (ground, ocean surface, aircraft) in strategic locations

• Measure 14C in the CO2 samples already being collected

(i) Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)(i) Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)

• High resolution spectra of reflected sunlight in near IR CO2 and O2 bands

• 3 km2 footprint at nadir• 3 Hz• Sun-Synchronous Orbit (7km/s):

16-day repeat

Clouds/Aerosols, H2O, Temperature

CO2 1.61m

CO2 2.06 m

Clouds/Aerosols, Surface Pressure

Column CO2

O2 A-band

Local Nadir

Glint Spot

Ground Track

Nadir

Glint

OCO Launch:

01:55:30 PST 24

February 2009

OCO Launch:

01:55:30 PST 24

February 2009

OCO failed to achieve orbit

Approved for reflight, 2010: climate treaty verification.

Liftoff OCO2 1:56am PST July 2 2014

Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

Liftoff OCO2 1:56am PST July 2 2014

Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

•https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njf67aov4XA

• July 1: Aborted launch T-42 seconds

“The A-Train”: comprehensive observations

“The A-Train”: comprehensive observations

OCO213:15:

AURA13:38:

TES – T, P, H2O, O3, CH4, COMLS – O3, H2O, COHIRDLS – T, O3, H2O, CO2, CH4

OMI – O3, aerosol climatology

aerosols, polarization

CloudSat – 3-D cloud climatologyCALIPSO – 3-D aerosol climatology

AIRS – T, P, H2O, CO2, CH4

MODIS – cloud, aerosols, albedo

OCO - - CO2

O2 A-band ps, clouds, aerosols

AMSR2 - -SST, sea ice, precip water vapor, cloud liq water

705 km orbit. First data expected November 2014

Summary: Climate Treaty VerificationSummary: Climate Treaty Verification

• Need to verify self-reported emission estimates

• Need to establish baseline emissions

• Need to account for changing land and ocean sinks

• Satellite CO2 + carbon data assimilation system CO2 fluxes at sub-national levels

• Will demonstrate CO2 sensing at local scales

63

CO 2 Life Fantastic Inez Fung University of California Berkeley University of California Museum of Paleontology March 6 2015.

Documents

atm co2

atm seasonal cycle of

co2 molecules life aerial

carbon cyclegrowth

natural carbon cyclecarbon

fuel emissions

global carbon budget

carbon dioxide co2ppm