Industry Goals and Measures to Address CO CO 2 Emissions From Aviation ICAO GIACC/3 ICAO GIACC/3 16-19 February 2009, Montreal 16-19 February 2009, Montreal Paul Steele On behalf of ACI, CANSO, IATA and ICCAIA
Industry Goals and Measures to Address COCO22 Emissions From
Aviation
ICAO GIACC/3ICAO GIACC/316-19 February 2009, Montreal16-19 February 2009, Montreal
Paul SteeleOn behalf of ACI, CANSO, IATA and ICCAIA
22 2
Summary Analysis
Based on most recent ICAO FESG forecasts CO2 efficiency potentials relative to 2005
15% by 2012 32% by 2020 At least 50% by 2050
Key findings Three key drivers of aviation emissions reductions
Ongoing fleet renewal ATM modernization and operational improvements Availability of biofuels
33 3
Summary
Enabling government policy implications
Support R&D investments
Commit to ATM modernization and reorganization
Implement positive legal/fiscal framework for biofuels
Avoid multi-layering of charges and taxes
44 4
Introduction Industry is committed to
Make a significant contribution to global CO2 reductions
Continue to underpin global socio-economic development
The four-pillar strategy guides our approach Invest in Technology (Including alternative fuels) Fly planes effectively Build efficient infrastructure Use positive economic measures
Our scope: CO2 emissions from a ‘gate to gate’ perspective,
including APU use Ground service equipment, terminal and ground
transport not included
55 5
Projected relative growth 2006 - 2050
0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%1000%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
RTK incl Freighterfleet
RTK pax fleet only
RPK
FlightsFleet
Average size
66 6
- 10,000
20,000 30,000
40,000 50,000
60,000 70,000
80,000 90,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Numb
er of
aircra
ftRemaining 2006 pax fleet Replaced post 2006 deliveriesNew pax fleet Remaining FreightersConverted Freighters New Freighters
Fleet forecast 2006 - 2050
77 7
Measures
Potential measures identified in five areas Technology development & implementation Improved ATM and infrastructure use More efficient operations Economic/market-based measures Regulatory measures
When considering measures Reduction potentials not necessarily additive Full stakeholder alignment required to achieve
maximum potential Crucial government role in enabling and facilitating
implementation of measures
88 8
1. Technology
Newly certified aircraft provide at least 15% fuel burn reduction relative to products they replace
Specific technology examples Blended winglets & raked wingtips Advanced fly-by-wire control systems Composites & advanced metal alloys Advanced turbofan engines
No attempt to predict future aircraft designs for 2050 Used ICCAIA high technology scenario to extrapolate
fuel efficiency improvements 1.16% pa
99 9
1. Technology
Relative improvement of new aircraft
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
21-50 51-100 101 -150 151-210 211 -300
301-400 401 -500 501 -600 601-650
Seat categories
Re
lati
ve
Fu
el
Bu
rn
1010 10
2. Operations
Analysis based on approximately 100 airline visits carried out by IATA Green Teams
Full implementation of identified opportunities would lead to an average 5% saving on the overall CO2 budget
1111 11
Since IPCC (1999) ATM has delivered up to 4% improvement
Unrecoverable 3-4% inefficiency foreseen due to
interdependencies
CANSO goal to recover remaining 3-4% by 2050, while traffic
quadruples
ATM6-12%
Other6-?%
Airframe, engine and fuel82%
Updated & Recovered 1999-2005 = 4%
IPCC (1999)
Aviation Emissions
CANSO (2008)ATM
Goals
Recoverable 2005-20503 - 4%
6 – 12 %
Interdependencies3 - 4%
3. Infrastructure: ATM
1212 12
3. Infrastructure: ATM Airspace efficiency & air traffic growth
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Year
AT
M E
ffic
ien
cy (
%)
“Business as usual” ATM efficiency will
decay as traffic congestion increases
(conceptual)
Ne
t A
TM
eff
icie
nc
y g
ain
s
Aspirational goals with ATM improvement
4%
To deliver 4% airspace efficiency, ATM has to deliver much higher efficiency gains
96%
1313 13
4. Infrastructure: airports
13
Total potential CO2 saving from APU use is
~ 4.2 Mt in 2007 ACI estimates Projected fuel saving from FEGP/PCA is 0.6% of
total industry fuel burn
1414 14
Fuel efficiency goals
Year Traffic growth
(RTK) a) Fuel efficiency
improvement goals b)
CO2 savings potential (Mt/yr) c)
2012 40% 15% 170 2020 130% 29% 485 2050 750% 50% 3,590
a)
Based on ICAO FESG traffic forecast 2008, expressed in revenue tonne-kilometres (RTKs). b)
Fuel efficiency is expressed in litres of fuel used per RTK. c)
This includes estimated annual savings from fleet renewal, ATM and operational improvements, and reduced auxiliary power unit (APU) use, expressed in millions of metric tonnes per year (Mt/yr) . It does not include estimated CO2 reductions from biofuel use.
1515 15
Total relative fuel use
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Relativchange %
Year
RTK development Fuel Used development
Operational optimization APU Fuel savings
ATM efficiency improvements
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Relativchange %
Year
RTK development Fuel Used development
Operational optimization APU Fuel savings
ATM efficiency improvements
Key Drivers of Emissions Reductions
Ongoing Fleet Renewal / Technology Development
Ongoing Fleet Renewal / Technology Development
ATM Investments / Improvements
ATM Investments / Improvements
Low Carbon FuelsLow Carbon Fuels
Forecasted Emissions Growth w/o Reduction Measures
Forecasted Emissions Growth w/o Reduction Measures
BaselineBaseline
CO
CO
22 E
mis
sio
ns
Em
issi
on
s
20502050Carbon Neutral TimelineCarbon Neutral Timeline
1717 17
Alternative fuels
Fuel
Engine
CO2
Biomass
1818 18
Alternative fuels (1) Crucial to reducing aviation’s carbon footprint,
Potential use of less carbon-intensive aviation fuels Jatropha, camelina, halophytes, algae, etc. Must meet strict sustainability criteria Regional differences / solutions
Very promising and fast developing area Successful tests in recent months Next milestone is certification ICAO Workshop highlighted significant progress
Biofuels will also contribute to New revenue streams for developing countries Energy security for local/national economies
1919 19
Alternative fuels (2)
Analyzed two scenarios for the commercialization of bio-jet – one optimistic and one pessimistic
Elements of the analysis Yield efficiency Capital costs Refinery construction time
Market viability defined as: threshold at which annual biojet usage reaches 1% of
total fleet fuel usage ~ 700 m US gallons or 2.65 Bn litres
2020 20
Alternative fuels (3)
Optimistic vs pessimistic scenario Market viability will be reached in 2015. Pessimistic scenario in 2021 Due to uncertainties, no attempt to project biofuel
availability beyond 2021
Assumed Carbon recovery rate of 80% on a full carbon life-cycle basis
Biofuels are not a significant contributor to CO2 savings in the 2012 timeframe
2121 21
Alternative fuels (4)
By 2020, biofuels benefits are small but significant I.e. an additional CO2 saving of 3% (34 Mt CO2)
Indicative volumes required for carbon-neutral growth at 2020 levels By 2029, a biojet supply of 223 bn litres By 2030, 238 bn litres By 2035, 391 bn litres By 2050, 1,051 bn litres
Beyond 2050, biofuels could drive emissions well below today’s levels
2222 22
CO2 intensity goals
Includes potential CO2 benefits from future biofuel use in aviation
Year Traffic growth
(RTK) a) Fuel efficiency
improvement goals b)
CO2 intensity reduction goals c)
CO2 savings potential (Mt/yr) d)
2012 40% 15% 15% 170 2020 130% 29% 32% 485 2050 750% 50% n/a 3,590
a)
Based on ICAO FESG traffic forecast 2008, expressed in revenue tonne-kilometres (RTKs). b)
Fuel efficiency is expressed in litres of fuel used per RTK. c)
CO2 intensity is expressed in kilogrammes of CO2 emitted per RTK. This includes CO2 benefits from biofuel use. d)
This includes estimated annual savings from fleet renewal, ATM and operational improvements, and reduced auxiliary power unit (APU) use, expressed in millions of metric tonnes per year (Mt/yr). It does not include estimated CO2 reductions from biofuel use.
2323 23
Required Investment
Identified aspirational goals require Estimated total investment in excess of USD 7
trillion would be required by 2050
This amount includes investment in New, more efficient aircraft ATM modernization programmes Biofuel production & distribution
2424 24
Roles of stakeholders Manufacturers
Develop and deliver more fuel efficient equipment
ANSPs Implement improved ATM procedures and
modernization programmes Influence State airspace design
Airports Provide sufficient infrastructure capacity
Airlines Invest in fleet renewal while satisfying demand Realize improvement potentials offered by product
and system providers
2525 25
Roles of stakeholders
Governments Implement fiscal and legal policies that enable
accelerated introduction of appropriate CO2 reduction measures
Support R&D funding
Ensure necessary airport capacity
Ensure airspace efficiency through: Proper institutional arrangements Improved civil/military coordination Improved ANSP governance Performance-based regulations
2626 26
Policy measuresWe need positive measures that:
Support industry in reducing its net carbon emissions
Stimulate private and public investments
Support clean technologies Including alternative fuels
Minimize compliance costs and competitive distortions
Recognize socio-economic benefits
2727 27
Implementation considerations
We need global solutions to a global problem Sector-specific approach Based on common vision
Key principles Consensus based Avoid competitive distortions Recognize global investment
requirements Strong ICAO leadership needed
ICAO GIACC/316-19 February 2009, Montreal
Industry is committed to work Industry is committed to work with ICAO/GIACC to forge a with ICAO/GIACC to forge a global framework to reduce global framework to reduce
aviation COaviation CO22 emissions emissions
ICAO GIACC/316-19 February 2009, Montreal
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