HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 1 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey 1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW Interviews: 803 adults, including 201 who only have a cell phone Washington, DC 20009 Dates: November 29 – December 2, 2014 (202) 234-5570 FINAL Study #11134d CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey November/December 2014 Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. The margin of error for 803 interviews is ± 3.5% 1a. For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF RESPONDENT REFUSES, ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? 18-24 ................................................ 12 [148-149] 25-29 ................................................ 7 30-34 ................................................ 10 35-39 ................................................ 7 40-44 ................................................ 8 45-49 ................................................ 9 50-54 ................................................ 9 55-59 ................................................ 10 60-64 ................................................ 11 65-69 ................................................ 6 70-74 ................................................ 4 75 and over ...................................... 6 Not sure/refused ............................. 1 1bc. And to ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS “NO, NOT HISPANIC” OR “NOT SURE,” ASK:) And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race–white, black or African American, Asian, or something else? White ................................................ 69 [150/151] Black or African American ................ 13 Hispanic............................................ 11 Asian ................................................ 2 Other ................................................ 4 Not sure/refused ............................. 1 47 Male 53 Female [109]
The results of CNBC's All-America Economic Survey, released on December 9, 2014.
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HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 1 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW Interviews: 803 adults, including 201 who only have a cell phone Washington, DC 20009 Dates: November 29 – December 2, 2014 (202) 234-5570 FINAL
Study #11134d CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey November/December 2014 Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.
The margin of error for 803 interviews is ± 3.5% 1a. For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF RESPONDENT REFUSES,
ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to?
1bc. And to ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a
Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS “NO, NOT HISPANIC” OR “NOT SURE,” ASK:) And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race–white, black or African American,
Asian, or something else?
White ................................................ 69 [150/151]
Black or African American ................ 13 Hispanic ............................................ 11 Asian ................................................ 2 Other ................................................ 4 Not sure/refused ............................. 1
47 Male 53 Female
[109]
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 2 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
2a. How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or
No ..................................................... 68 73 73 74 Depends (VOL) ............................... 2 5 3 3 Not sure .......................................... 1 1 1 2
7ab. Did you either do any holiday shopping over the past few days or plan to do so in the next couple of days?
(IF RESPONDENT SAYS “YES,” ASK:) On which of the following days did you do or do you plan to do
holiday shopping?
11-12/14 12/13 11/12 Yes 51 48 42
Thanksgiving Day .......................................................... 6 9 4 [216/217]
The day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday ...................... 16 18 16 >
The Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving .................. 15 18 11 The Monday after Thanksgiving ..................................... 14 11 NA None of these ................................................................. 11 5 14 Not sure .......................................................................... 1 - - No .................................................................................... 48 52 58 Not sure ........................................................................ 2 - -
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO DO NOT SAY BLACK FRIDAY IN Q.7b)
7c. Which ONE of the following is the MAIN reason you did not do any holiday shopping on Black Friday?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
You did not want to deal with large crowds .............................................. 49 [218]
You did not want to interrupt your holiday to go shopping ........................ 18
You do most of your holiday shopping online ........................................... 8
You already finished all of your holiday shopping..................................... 4
You did not want to encounter minimum wage protests by workers ......... 3
None of these/other reason (VOL) ......................................................... 17
Not sure ................................................................................................. 1
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 6 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY BLACK FRIDAY IN Q.7b)
7d. Which ONE of the following is the MAIN reason you did holiday shopping on Black Friday?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
You wanted to take advantage of low prices ........................................ 57 [219]
It is a tradition that you do every year................................................... 24
You wanted to get your holiday shopping done on your day off ........... 7
You wanted some time away from your family ..................................... 2
None of these/other reason (VOL) .................................................... 10
Not sure .............................................................................................. -
8. Are you currently employed? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "NO," ASK:) Are you a student, a homemaker,
retired, or unemployed and looking for work? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "YES, EMPLOYED," ASK:) What
Not Currently Employed Student ........................................... 4 Homemaker .................................... 7 Retired ............................................ 22 Skip to Q.10a Unemployed, looking for work ........ 7 Volunteer (VOL) ........................... - Disabled (VOL) ............................. 3 Not sure/refused ........................... 2
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 7 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "YES, EMPLOYED" IN Q.8a)
9a. Over the next twelve months, do you expect that your wages will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? [228]
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "INCREASE" IN Q.9a)
9b. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect your wages to increase over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [229-231]
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "DECREASE" IN Q.9a)
9c. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect your wages to decrease over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [232-234]
1Comparative data for August 2010 comes from a survey conducted by Hart/McInturff for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 8 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
10a. Over the next twelve months, do you expect that the cost of living--that is, what you pay for everyday goods
and services--will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? [235]
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "INCREASE" IN Q.10a)
10b. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you think the price of everyday goods and services will increase in the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [236-238]
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "DECREASE" IN Q.10a)
10c. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you think the price of everyday goods and services will decrease in the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [239-241]
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 9 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
11a. Do you expect the value of your home to increase, decrease, or stay about the same over the next twelve
months? If you do not own your home, please just say so. [242]
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "INCREASE" IN Q.11a)
11b. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect the value of your home to increase over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [243-245]
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "DECREASE" IN Q.11a)
11c. If you had to give your best estimate, by what percentage do you expect the value of your home to decrease over the next twelve months? Please use only whole numbers, without any decimals. [246-248]
11-12/14 9/14
1 6/14 3/14
12/13 9/13 6/13 3/13 11/12 9/12 5/12 3/12
Own Their Home Decrease ....................................... 6 9 9 10 10 14 14 13 13 19 16 20 Stay the same ................................ 60 63 55 59 56 54 48 54 63 54 62 58 Total increase ................................. 34 28 36 31 34 32 38 33 24 27 22 22
1Results shown among respondents who own their home, consisting of 83% in 11-12/14, 72% in 9/14, 80% in 6/14, 77% in 3/14, 76% in 12/13,78% in 9/13, 77% in 6/13,
74% in 3/13, 74% in 11/12, 77% in 9/12, 76% in 5/12, 77% in 3/12, 77% in 11/11, 75% in 6/11, 78% in 3/11, 80% in 12/10, 83% in 10/10, 84% in 12/09, 77% in 12/08, 85% in 9/08, 86% in 6/08, 81% in 2/08, 82% in 12/07, 82% in 10/07, and 84% in 3/07.
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 10 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
12ab. Do you have money invested in the stock market and mutual funds, including IRAs and 401(K)s? (IF
RESPONDENT SAYS “YES,” ASK:) And is the value of these investments above or below fifty thousand
10/10 12/09 12/08 Less than $10,000 ................................................... 7 8 8 At least $10,000 but less than $50,000 ................... 13 13 14 At least $50,000 but less than $100,000 ................. 11 8 9 At least $100,000 but less than $200,000 ............... 7 8 9 At least $200,000 but less than $300,000 ............... 3 2 4 At least $300,000 but less than $500,000 ............... 2 2 4 At least $500,000 but less than $1,000,000 ............ 1 3 1 $1,000,000 or more ................................................. 1 2 1 No, no money invested in the stock market ............. 44 42 42 Not sure/refused .................................................... 11 12 8
13ab. In your opinion, would you say this is a good time or a bad time to be investing in the stock market? (IF
RESPONDENT SAYS "GOOD TIME” OR “BAD TIME," ASK:) Would you say it is a very (good time/bad
Very good time ............................ 12 7 9 10 9 8 10 9 7 7 [251/252]
Just a somewhat good time ........ 29 24 27 29 29 30 26 31 24 23 Just a somewhat bad time .......... 22 29 26 25 27 26 23 26 30 30 Very bad time .............................. 8 11 13 14 12 13 15 13 17 18 Not sure .................................... 29 29 25 22 23 23 26 21 22 22
Total Good Time 41 31 36 39 38 38 36 40 31 30 Total Bad Time 30 40 39 39 39 39 38 39 47 48
Total Good Time 30 31 29 31 35 35 37 41 38 49 Total Bad Time 52 49 53 50 46 46 51 48 52 27
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 11 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
On a different topic...
14. Held for future release. 15. As you may know, as a result of this year's elections, Republicans will control both houses of Congress
starting in 2015. Does this make you feel more optimistic, less optimistic, or does it not affect your opinion either way about each of the following areas? If something does not apply to you, please say so.
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY MORE OPTIMISTIC
More
Optimistic Less
Optimistic
Does Not Affect
Opinion Either Way
Does Not
Apply Not
Sure
The direction of the economy .............................. 33 25 33 5 4 [259]
The cost of gas, electricity, and other energy * ... 33 25 32 5 5 [262]
Dealing with the federal deficit ** ........................ 32 27 31 5 5 [267]
The direction of the stock market * ..................... 26 15 38 8 13 [263]
The cost of healthcare ** ..................................... 26 37 28 4 5 [266]
The value of your home ...................................... 23 11 44 17 5 [260/264]
Your wages ......................................................... 20 16 42 18 4 [261/265]
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
Moving on to a different subject...
16a. In your area, would you say that gasoline prices are higher than, lower than, or about the same as they were
at this point last year? If you are not sure about this, please say so.
Lower ................................................ 79 About the same ................................ 7 Not sure .......................................... 8
16b. Nationally, gas prices have decreased recently. Are you doing any of the following things specifically
because gas prices are lower?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
Putting more money into savings ............................................................... 13 [269]
Paying down more debt ............................................................................ 12 >
Driving more .............................................................................................. 10
Spending more on other things .................................................................. 8
You are not doing any of these things as a result of lower gas prices ..... 61
Not sure ................................................................................................... 4
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 12 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
Thinking some more about shopping...
17a. Before making a purchase, how often do you research the product on the Internet–all the time, most of the
time, some of the time, rarely, or never?
All of the time ............................................ 18 [270]
Most of the time ......................................... 24 CONTINUE Some of the time ....................................... 23
Rarely ........................................................ 13 Never ......................................................... 21 Skip to Q.18a Not sure ................................................... 1
Total All/Most Of The Time 42 Total Rarely/Never 34
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "SOME OF THE TIME" OR MORE IN Q.17a)
17b. Once you have done research online and decided to make a purchase, are you more likely to buy the product online or in a physical store?
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 13 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
19ab. Do you currently own any so-called wearable technology, such as Google Glass, a fitness tracker you wear
on your wrist, or a watch that connects to your cell phone or the Internet? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "NO, DO NOT CURRENTLY OWN," ASK:) Do you plan to buy some kind of wearable technology like those I just
mentioned at some point in the next year? *
Yes, Currently Own ................................. 9 [275/276] No, Do Not Currently Own ...................... 89
Plan to buy in next year .......................... 6
Do not play to buy in next year ................ 81 Not sure ................................................... 2 Not sure ................................................. 2
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
FACTUALS: Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only.
F1. Are you currently registered to vote? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "YES, REGISTERED," ASK:) A lot of
people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the 2012 election for president? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "YES, VOTED," ASK:) For whom did you vote–Barack Obama, Mitt
Romney, or someone else?
Voted for Barack Obama ................... 32 [277-279]
Voted for Mitt Romney ...................... 25 Voted–someone else ........................ 8 Voted–not sure .................................. 12 No, did not vote ................................. 10 Not registered.................................... 12 Not sure .......................................... 1
F2. What is the last grade that you completed in school?
Grade school ........................................................... 1 [308-309]
Some high school .................................................... 6
High school graduate ............................................... 25
Some college, no degree ......................................... 17
Vocational training/2-year college ............................ 10
Not sure/refused .................................................... 2
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #11134d--page 14 November 2014 CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey
F3. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something
else? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "SOMETHING ELSE," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the
Democratic Party, do you think of yourself as strictly independent, or do you think of yourself as something else?
Not very strong Democrat ......................................................... 11 Independent/something else/closer to Democratic Party .......... 7 Strictly independent .................................................................. 21 Independent/something else/closer to Republican Party .......... 10 Not very strong Republican ...................................................... 9 Strong Republican .................................................................... 15 Something else ......................................................................... 6 Not sure .................................................................................. 5
F4. Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or
conservative? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider
yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)?
Very liberal ........................................ 6 [321/322]
Somewhat liberal ............................... 15 Moderate ........................................... 31 Somewhat conservative .................... 23 Very conservative .............................. 15 Not sure .......................................... 10
Total Liberal 21 Total Conservative 38
F5. If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year,
what would the total be? I'm going to read some income ranges. Please stop me when I reach the range for your family--less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, between one hundred thousand dollars and two hundred thousand dollars, or more than two hundred thousand dollars?
Less than $10,000 ................................................... 6 [323-324]
Between $10,000 and $20,000 ............................... 9 Between $20,000 and $30,000 ................................ 10 Between $30,000 and $40,000 ................................ 9 Between $40,000 and $50,000 ................................ 7 Between $50,000 and $75,000 ................................ 14 Between $75,000 and $100,000 .............................. 13 Between $100,000 and $200,000 ............................ 13 More than $200,000 ................................................. 4 Not sure/refused .................................................... 15