CMIP5 Model Analysis

Analysis of CMIP5 on the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) James Duncan

South American Monsoon System (SAMS)

• A monsoon can be described as a seasonal reversal in the large-scale surface winds driven by heating between the land and ocean.

• Large seasonal changes result in an increase of precipitation over the Amazon basin and the establishment of an upper-level anticyclone known as the Bolivian High, and he Chaco low in northwest Argentina and Paraguay.

CMIP5 Model Analysis

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) was designed to evaluate how accurate the models are in simulating past, present, and future projections of climate.

Gridded Precipitation Data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) (1979-2005)

Constructed by combining records from rain gauge stations merged with observations (satellite geostationary, low-orbit infrared, passive microwave, and sounding observations).

Verification

Mean Monsoon Rainfall

Absolute Average Deviation

Regional Analysis of SAMS

[McNally & Co.'s Universal Atlas of The World]

Monthly Averaged Daily Precipitation

Monthly Averaged Daily Precipitation

Anomalous Monsoon Rainfall (40°W to 70°W, 20°S to 0°)

IMF 1 IMF 1

IMF 1IMF1

IMF 2

IMF 4IMF 4

IMF3

IMF 2

IMF 4

IMF 3

IMF 2

IMF 3

IMF 4

IMF 3

IMF 2

Future Work/Conclusion

• Cannot quantitively say which models performed better than others.

• While one model may better represent the spatial distribution of precipitation in association with the monsoon, it may do horrible in terms of variability.

• Look into outside forcings to SAMS precipitation.

Questions?Bombardi, R. J., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2008: IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system. Clim. Dyn., 33, 893-916.

Collins, W. J., N. Bellouin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, N. Gedney, T. Hinton, C.D. Jones, S. Liddicoat, G. Martin, F. O’Connor, and Coauthors, 2008: Evaluation of the HadGEM2 model. Hadley Centre Tech. Note 74, 48.

Davies, T., M. et al., 2005: A new dynamical core for the Met Office’s global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,131, 1759–1782.

Jones, C., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2002: Active and break phases in the South American monsoon system. J. Clim.,15, 905-914.

Liebmann, B., D. Allured, 2005: Daily precipitation grids for South America. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1567-1570.

Liebmann, B., and C. R. Mechoso, 2011: The South American monsoon system. The Global Monsoon System Research and Forecast, Cchih-Pei Chang et al., World Scientific Publishing Co.,137-157.

Krishnamurthy, V., and V. Misra, 2010: Observed ENSO teleconnections with the South American monsoon system. Atmos. Sci. Let., 11, 7-12.

Neale, R. B. et al., 2011: The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments. J. Climate, in review.

Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2011: An overview of CMIP5 and the experimental design. . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

Vera, C., W. Higgins, J. Amador, T. Amrizzi, R. Garreaud, D. Gochis, D. Gutzler, D. Lettenmaier, J. Marengo, and Coauthors, 2006: Toward a unified view of American monsoon systems. J. Clim., 19, 4977-5000.

Watanabe, M., T. Suzuki, R. O’Ishi, Y. Komuro, S. Watanabe, S. Emori, T. Takemura, M. Chikira, T. Ogura, and Coauthors, 2010: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Clim., 23, 6312-6335.

Wu, Z., and N. E. Huang, 2009: Ensemble empiracal mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Adv. Adapt. Data Anal., 1, 1-41.