CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea The ADRICOSM-STAR Project: ADRICOSM INTEGRATED.

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The ADRICOSM-STAR The ADRICOSM-STAR Project:Project:

ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM:COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM:

MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA RIVER CATCHMENTRIVER CATCHMENT

Euro-Mediterranean Center for Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change and INGVClimate Change and INGV

Bologna, ItalyBologna, Italy

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ADRICOSM-STAR Participants

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The ADRICOSM-STAR areaThe ADRICOSM-STAR area

Second largest maxima in coastal

Chlorophyll in the whole Adriatic Sea

Very complex surface and underground

water system(karstic)

Climate change coastalimpact may be large

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The problems of interestThe problems of interest Assess the environmental quality of the Montenegro Assess the environmental quality of the Montenegro

coastal area and the Bojana river today and in the future coastal area and the Bojana river today and in the future scenariosscenarios

Study the local water cycle over Montenegro in order to Study the local water cycle over Montenegro in order to assess the impact of global change on the coastal area, assess the impact of global change on the coastal area, the Bojana river sediment transport, the water quality in the Bojana river sediment transport, the water quality in the river and the coastal zone. the river and the coastal zone.

Develop and implement a coastal area, river and urban Develop and implement a coastal area, river and urban waters integrated management system that considers waters integrated management system that considers state-of-the-art observational and modelling state-of-the-art observational and modelling components.components.

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ADRICOSM-STAR integrated ADRICOSM-STAR integrated monitoring and modelling approachmonitoring and modelling approach

MultidisciplinaryMulti-platformObserving system(atmospheric, river and oceanographic stations, satellitemonitoring)

Numerical models of atmosphere, marine

and river hydrodynamcs,

underground waterscoupled to water

quality and sediment transport models

Climate change scenario simulations

coupled to regional/local models

High quality input data to policy makers for the environmental assessment of surface, underground, marine and urban waters

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Observational Module: resultsObservational Module: results

New hydrological and water quality station in Fraskanjel(Bojana river)

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ea Large scale oceanographic surveys in Montenegro coastal waters and Bokakotorska Bay

Observational Module: resultsObservational Module: results

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The ADRICOSM-STAR new coastal integrated The ADRICOSM-STAR new coastal integrated observational and modelling approachobservational and modelling approach

Monitoring, forecasting and

Climate scenario impacts

Coastal areaUrban waters RiverUndergroun

dWaters

Atmospheric and climate models

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Bojana river modellingBojana river modelling

Buna Daici modelled and measured flows

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Time

Q (m

³/s)

Calibrated model (daily average)

Calibrated model (monthly average)

Buna Daici Measured (monthly average)

Calibrated model of the river flow

Jan. 2003 Dec. 200304/10/2304/10/23

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Oceanographic modellingOceanographic modellingUpgrades of the large scale Adriatic forecasting at 2 km resolution, daily forecasts

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150m res150m res

50m res50m res

100m res100m res

50m res50m res

Montenegro coastal strip model nested into theAdriatic model

Oceanographic modellingOceanographic modelling

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Bojana river suspended sedimentsBojana river suspended sedimentsSimulation (1 month in May 2008)Simulation (1 month in May 2008)

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Atmospheric modelling:Atmospheric modelling:downscaling of CMCC-IPCC scenariosdownscaling of CMCC-IPCC scenarios

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Downscaling model area for atmosphere

Input from CMCC global model

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Scenario A1B (intermediate greenhouse gases)Scenario A1B (intermediate greenhouse gases)

0C

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eaPrecipitation and wind difference Precipitation and wind difference

scenarioscenario(2015-2020) (2015-2020) – today – today (2003-2008)(2003-2008)

Precipitation Wind magnitude

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eaMarine temperatures and currents:Marine temperatures and currents:

scenarioscenario(2015-2020) (2015-2020) today today (2003-2008)(2003-2008)

Surface Current (m/s) and Temperature (°C) 2003-2008

Surface Current (m/s) and Temperature (°C) 2015-2020

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Final remarksFinal remarks ADRICOSM-STAR is successfully achieving ADRICOSM-STAR is successfully achieving

the project goalsthe project goals Results show the emergence of climate Results show the emergence of climate

change signals in the Montenegro coastal change signals in the Montenegro coastal area for the period 2015-2020area for the period 2015-2020

Innovative integrated modelling has been Innovative integrated modelling has been demonstrated, needs to be continueddemonstrated, needs to be continued

ADRICOSM-STAR high quality data promise ADRICOSM-STAR high quality data promise to be an important input for environmental to be an important input for environmental policy makerspolicy makers

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