Club of Amsterdam, June 25, 2003 Re-Inventing Democracies for the Future: A few Remarks on the Swiss «Model»
Dec 30, 2015
Club of Amsterdam, June 25, 2003
Re-Inventing Democraciesfor the Future:A few Remarks on the Swiss «Model»
TH/June 25 2003 Club of Amsterdam
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«Super Sunday», May 18, 2003:National vote on 9 propositions
• Reform of the armed forces• Civil defense and population protection• Program for the creation of apprenticeships• Closure of nuclear power plants• Moratorium for refurbishing nuclear power plants• Income and wealth-tested premiums for health
care insurance• «Four Sundays without Car Traffic»• Equal rights of access for the handicapped• Regulations for «Fair Rents»
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Closure of nuclear power plants
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Income and wealth-tested premiums for health care insurance
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High hurdles: Popular and state vote
Proposition Popular Vote% Nay
State VoteNay : Yea
Moratorium on nuclear power 59,4 22 : 1
Equal rights for handycapped 62,3 20 : 3
«Four Car-free Sundays» 62,3 23 : 0
Closure of nuclear plants 66,3 22½ : ½
Regulation for «Fair Rents« 67,3 22 : 1
Programm for apprenticeships 68,4 23 : 0
Health care insurance 72,9 23 : 0
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Examples for cantonal votes (%Yea)
• Law on extended shopping hours (2000, 56%)
• Cantonal supplements to federal social security payments (44,1%)
• Cantonal investment in Crossair/Swiss (55,5%)
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TH/June 25 2003 Club of Amsterdam
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Examples for communal votes
• Budgeting and expenditure authority of local council (2002, 863 yeas vs. 611 nays, 51,4% voter participation)
• Contribution of CHF 2’481’200.- for renovation of regional hospital (2001, 3133 yeas vs. 1005 nays, 33,3% voter participation)
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Direct democracy on the rise: More votes
• 1848 – 1970: 223 (Ø 1,9/year)• 1971 – 1990: 256 (Ø 7,8/year)• 1991 – 2001: 105 (Ø 9,5/year)
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Participation in elections and in votes
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Declining vote participation
• Vote participation rate >> election participation rate→ limited role of parliament→ stable 4 party government («Magic Formula»)
• Participation rate depends on mix/composition of ballot→ (additive) issue voting→ high degree of predictability
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Mandatory referendums as confirmation and legitimation of consensus process
• Mandatory referendums– Amendments to the Constitution– Membership in supranational organizations– Majority of voters and majority of the cantons
required
• 1848-2001: 198 votes • 75% accepted
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Optional referendums as veto mechanism for special interest groups/cantons
• Optional referendums– Laws and certain international treaties– 50’000 voter signatures required within 100
days after final vote by parliament– Majority of voters required
• 1848-2001: 141 votes • 51% accepted
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Low success rates for popular initiative• Popular initiatives
– Amendment to the Constitution– 100‘000 voter signatures required within 18
months– General proposal or precise paragraphs– Optional counter-proposal by
government/parliament plus tiebreaker– Agenda setting and reform function
• 1848-2001: 138 votes• 8,7% accepted
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In praise of direct democracy …
• More communicative politics• Reduction of apathy and cynicism,
increase of self-esteem (and happiness)• Financial and fiscal restraint• Collective learning processes• Antidote to the «personalization» (and
banalization) of politics (?)• Restoration of trust (?)
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Club of Amsterdam
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TH/June 25 2003
Switzerland with low (or no) growth
80
100
120
140
160
180
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Schweiz
USA
EU
EFTA
Basisjahr 1984 = 100, Quelle: OECD
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TH/June 25 2003 Club of Amsterdam
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Growth 1980 – 2000: Switzerland‘s position according to 3 concepts of GDP
GDP standardized Command GDP GDP in PPP
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Ranking GDP per capita: Top Ten 1970 - 2020
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CH USA LUX LUX LUX LUX
LUX CH USA USA USA IRL
USA CAN CH NOR IRL USA
DNK NOR CAN CAN NOR NOR
SWE ISL JPN DNK DNK KOR
AUS LUX DNK CH CAN DNK
CAN DNK ISL IRL JPN JPN
NLD SWE SWE AUS AUS AUS
NLZ AUS NOR BEL CH CAN
NOR NLD FIN JPN ISL GBR
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Projection of GDP per capita for 2015
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Labor force participation, 1999 (in %)
50. 856. 3
59. 359. 460. 560. 961. 862. 864. 7
68. 569. 669. 970. 3
73. 974. 8
78. 579. 8Schweiz
Norwegen
Japan
USAGrossbritannien
Kanada
Schweden
Australien
Fürstentum LichtensteinÖsterreich
Niederlande
Neuseeland
Deutschland
Frankreich
Irland
Italien
Belgien
Quelle: OECD, 1999
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TH/June 25 2003
Growth of labor productivity, 1992-2001
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Patterns of labor productivity
Quelle: seco 2003 (Studien zum Wachstumsbericht)
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
ModèleAnglo-SaxonModèle
LatinModèle Scandinave
Japon
Modèle Allemand
Suisse
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Change in public expenditure (% of GDP), 1992-2001
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Change in fiscal quota, 1992-2001
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Change in public debt, 1992-2001
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The price of direct democracy (and «extreme» federalism)?• Chronic lack of growth, low productivity• Loss of competitive advantages • Missed opportunities due to, and of, Non-
EU-membership• Systemic blockage of necessary reforms• Demographic trap: democratic majority of
elderly voters against younger generations?
• Territorial units VS. urban development
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December 6, 1992: 50,3% of voters and two thirds of cantons vote against EES
Club of AmsterdamInterlaken
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TH 08.05.2003
Electricity prices for industrial clients in selected cities in Europe and Switzerland (1.1.2003)
Quelle: Enerprice / Avenir Suisse, 2003
4.4
6.0
6.5
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.6
8.9
9.7
11.1
11.2
12.2
12.5
13.2
13.2
14.0
15.4
16.2
Stockholm
Oslo
Helsinki
Madrid
Paris
London
Athen
Hamburg
Lissabon
Brüssel
Freiburg
Dublin
Bern
Basel
Genf
Zürich
Rom
La Chaux-de-Fonds
Preise in Rp. / kWh
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TH/June 25 2003
Liberalization of postal service market (2001): Switzerland still with a weighty monopoly
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Speed of liberalization: Slow Switzerland
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The price of direct democracy (and «extreme» federalism)?• Chronic lack of growth, low productivity• Loss of competitive advantages • Missed opportunities due to, and of, Non-
EU-membership• Systemic blockage of necessary reforms• Demographic trap: democratic majority of
elderly voters against younger generations?
• Territorial units VS. urban development
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Effects of federalism on veto players and other institutions
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Veto players
«In Switzerland, a federal country with a combination of bicameralism und qualified majority decision making , the role of the President of the Confederation is even more reduced; in fact, Swiss Citizen may even ignore his name.
George Tsebelis, Federalism and Veto players
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The price of direct democracy (and «extreme» federalism)?• Chronic lack of growth, low productivity• Loss of competitive advantages • Missed opportunities due to, and of, Non-
EU-membership• Systemic blockage of necessary reforms• Demographic trap: democratic majority of
elderly voters against younger generations?
• Territorial units VS. urban development
TH/June 25 2003 Club of Amsterdam
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TH/June 25 2003 Club of Amsterdam
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Reform of federalism (>> direct democracy)• Centralization [«fédéraliser»]• Equalization?• Unbundling?• New layers (agglomerations)• New territorial Functional, overlapping,
and competing jurisdiction (FOCI)• New definition and reduction of territorial
units
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TH/June 25 2003
Net-contributors and net-receivers due to New (federalist) Financial Equalization (in Mio. CHF)
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
ZH
ZG SZ
GE
NW GL
AR
OW A
I
JU VD
GR
NE
BL
SH
UR
AG
BS
FR
SG LU TI
SO
TG BE
VS
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Reform of federalism (>> direct democracy)• Centralization [«fédéraliser»]• Equalization?• Unbundling?• New layers (agglomerations)• New territorial Functional, overlapping,
and competing jurisdiction (FOCI)• New definition and reduction of territorial
units
TH/June 25 2003Club of Amsterdam
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TH/June 25 2003Club of Amsterdam
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A program for autonomous (economic) policy reform (?)
• Maximum openess for international exchange and immigration
• Liberalization of domestic markets, decisive free market and competition policy
• Active foreign trade policy in all directions• Redimensioning of welfare state, strengthening
individual responsibility• Investment in education and research (plus
structural innovation)• Maintain and protect Swiss accomplishments: liberal
and flexible labor market, high quality infrastructure, safety, quality of life