Closing the Culture Gap Presentation by Al From The Democratic Leadership Council's National Conversation Indianapolis, Indiana July 16,2001 .

Closing the Culture Gap

Presentation by Al From

The Democratic Leadership Council's

National Conversation

Indianapolis, Indiana

July 16,2001

www.ndol.org

The Key to Breaking the Tiein American Politics

Closing the Cultural Gap

The Key to Breaking the TieIn American Politics

The New Electorate and the New Political Context

What we learned from the 2000 Election The New Democrat Formula for Closing the

Cultural Gap and Breaking the Tie in American Politics

The Parties at Parity

48.4 49.3 50 47.9 4849 47

0 0 0 0 3

505047.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

President ElectoralVote

Senate House State LegHouses

Democrat Republican Tied

Parity in 2000The Tie in American Politics

52.6

42.8 43

49.2 48.445.8

52.4

38

47.9

40.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1932-64 1968-88 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican

The Parties at ParityThe Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics

52 52 5449 49 48 4951 49 49 49

45 44 46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Democrat Republican

The Parties at ParityThe Tie in the House

The Parties at ParityThe Reasons

The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate

The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing

A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

The New Electorate

PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS

Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------

47

38

3234

2623

812

1618

2428

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Less than $30K More than $75K

Voters’ Family Incomes: 1980 to 2000

18

46

27

70

01020304050607080

WorkingClass

MiddleClass

UpperMid Class

OwnStock

An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters

3342

61

74

01020304050607080

1980 2000

College Grads Some College

Educational Attainment

Percentage of voters with a college degree

8981

52

9 10 130

7

25

0 28

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 2000 2050 Projected

White Black Hispanic Asian

Diversity

29

0

43

0

28

00

10

20

30

40

50

Urban Suburban Rural

The Suburbs RulePercentage of Voters 2000

7867

88

160

92

57

0

50

100

150

200

1973 Today

Urban Suburban Rural

The Suburban SwingCongressional Seats

38.8

9.2

14.5 14.6

7.5

13.18.5

17.7

05

1015202530354045

1952 2000

Balt City Balt County PG County Montgomery

From City to SuburbPercentage of Statewide Vote

30 2819 23 26

70 7281 77 74

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1984 1992 1996 2000

Union Hshds Non-Union

The Union VoteComing Back But Still Below 1984

26

00

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 2000

Wired VotersPercentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

Generational Change

In the 2000 Election

Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New Deal Era voters.

The dominant generations are the “skeptical

generations”--the Baby Boomers, GenXers and

GenYers.

40

3033

2924

21 20 20

36

49 4750

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1992 1996 2000

Conservatives Liberals Moderates

Political Views

4038

4238 39 3938

35 35

18

2627

3532

27272727

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican Independent

Party IdentificationPercentage of Voters

The 2000 Election

15 1429

6882

47

85 8672

3218

53

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican

The Diminishing Economic Class Divisions

Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

No HS HS Grad Some Col Col Grad Post Grad

The Missing MiddleDemocrats Win Least and Best Educated

4944 42 40 42 41

4650

55 57 55 56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Under15K

15-30K 30-50K 50-75K 75-100K Over100K

Gore Bush

Missing the Mark

Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in 2000

Missing the TargetThe Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000

Income

Education

-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

Post GradCollege GradSome CollegeHigh School GradHS Dropout

Over 100K75 - 100K50 – 75K30 – 50K15 – 30K

Under 15K

responsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with a

Message Matters

If a candidate for President said this, would it have madeyou much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhatless likely, or much less likely to vote for them forPresident?Top Arguments Ranked by “Much more likely”

MuchMoreLikely

More/LessLikely

I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to worktogether in a bipartisan manner to get things done for America.

46 79/15

I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all , demands

government that equips all Americans with the tools they needfor economic success.

41 78/15

I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up andfight no matter what powerful forces might be on the other side– big oil companies, big polluters, big pharmaceuticalcompanies, and big tobacco. This election is about the peoplev. the powerful .

41 70/24

(All Voters)

Message Matters

(Key Voter Categories B Much More Likely

Gore Voters

Bush Voters

Bush Swing

Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44 People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32

The Cultural Gap

National Democratic Margin

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 -1 -10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 -3 -11 -24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 -1 +6 White 81 -1 -3 -12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 -9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24

-3

7281

51

24

-12-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1996 2000

White Black Hispanic

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin by Race

3

-1

-10

8

16

11

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1992 1996 2000

Men Women

The Cultural Gap

Democratic Margin by Gender

010203040506070

Democrat Republican Other

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin Among White Men and Women

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin By Marital Status

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 -1 -2 -9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 -3 Child under 18 39 +2 +7 -7 +14 No 61 +8 +4 +4 Married/Child 31 -15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29)+10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 -8 +11

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin on Guns and Abortion

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Gun Owner 48 -13 (37) -25 +12 No 52 +17 (63) +19 -2 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25)+48 +45 +3 Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35)+22 +20 +2 Mostly Illeg 27 (23)-30 (25)-25 -40 +15 Always Illeg 13 (9)-39 (12)-45 -52 +7

The Cultural Gap

Democratic Margin by Religion All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Attend Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42) -12 -17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Protestant 54 -9 -9 -14 +5 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 Jewish 4 +69 +62 +60 +2 White Prot 56 (of

whites) -14 -17 -29 +12

White Cath 25 (of whites)

+5 +7 -7 +14

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin by Ideology, Party

and Role of Government All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Liberal 20 +54 +67 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 -48 -51 -64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 -1 Republican 35 -63 -67 -83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 -2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 -22 (55) -30 (52) -46 +16

Swing States GOP BaseDemo Base

The Swing States

The Swing States: Electoral Votes

Democratic Base States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 California 54 55 Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois 22 21 Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 10 Mass 12 12 Michigan 18 17 Minnesota 10 10 New Jersey 15 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York 33 31 Oregon 7 7 Penn 23 21 R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 11 Wisconsin 11 10 Total 267 260

Republican Base States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana 12 11 Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car 14 15 N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas 32 34 Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 135

In Play States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida 25 27 Georgia 13 15 Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio 21 20 Tennessee 11 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total 136 143

The New Democrat Approach

What is a New Democrat?

New Democrats are the modernizers of the Democratic Party

We further our party’s enduring values with new and innovative ideas

Core Principles

The

New Democrat Philosophy

Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook

Empowering Government

Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values

The New Democrat Philosophy

America’s Basic Bargain

Opportunity for All Responsibility from All Community of All

Where New Democrats Stand

for economic growth and opportunityfor fiscal responsibilityfor work, not welfarefor strengthening familiesfor preventing crime and punishing criminalsfor non-bureaucratic, empowering governmentfor fostering a new sense of community and an ethic of

mutual responsibility by asking citizens to give something back to their country

12

52

34

12

50

35

15

53

30

14

54

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Solve Problems Equip People Stay Out

1997 1998 1999 2000

Role of GovernmentWhat is the Proper Role of the Federal Goverment?

17

56

2416

60

2116

63

1819

55

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Social Programs Spur Growth Stay Out

1997 1998 1999 2000

Government and the EconomyWhat Role Should the Federal Goverment Play in the Economy?

Closing the Cultural GapLessons From the Clinton Victories

Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not RedistributionEmphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues

Like Crime and WelfareStand for Big Ideas, Not Big GovernmentSupport Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents

Raise KidsSupport a Strong National DefenseAvoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like

Abortion or Guns

The Winning Coalition in 2004

A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century

The Democratic Base and Beyond Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban and Suburban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and “Rising Learning Class”

The Bottom LineIn a Time of Parity Message Matters More

The Next Progressive Majority will be built around ideas and values, not interest groups.How we frame our message is likely to be the difference between victory and defeat. The best government is the best politics. If we have good ideas that tend to the needs of ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the politics will take care of itself.