Closing Remarks

Closing Remarks

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniPresident

American Meteorological Society

40th Conference on Broadcast MeteorologyBoston, MA

August 22, 2012

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Preparing for the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting

Austin, TX, January 6-10, 2013

• 2013 AMS Annual Meeting theme: – “Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today’s

Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Projections” – Designed to build off interdisciplinary partnerships– Applications include coastal, health vectors, ecosystem prediction

• An important developing partnership involving the atmospheric-ocean sciences-bio/chem communities

• Completing the “last mile” to expand beyond today’s forecasts points to a physical science-social science intersection/overlap, especially for mitigation and adaptation Decision Support and Services

• Need to keep academic/research communities fully engaged with the AMS

• Sessions designed to support K-12 science goals (STEM) at Teacher Workshops

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2013 Annual Meeting Emphasis is on Earth System Science Approach

• Themed Joint Sessions highlighting advancing predictive capabilities across many disciplines and applications, including– Climate Trends and Projections in the Coastal Environment– Economic Impacts and Value of Improved Forecast Information– Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective– Ocean, Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, and Land Surface Interaction in the Coastal

Environment– Water, Food Security, and Human Health

• Town Hall Meetings, including– Keeping the Lights On: Is the Current State of Weather Communications and Forecasts

Powerful Enough?– Improving Forecasts and Warnings Through Social Science Partnerships– National Climate Assessment: Further Defining Actionable Information

• Presidential Forum speakers – Dr. Alan Thorpe, Director-General, ECMWF– Dr. Tony Hey, VP Microsoft Research– Major General Michael Walsh, Deputy Commanding General for Civil and Emergency

Operations, United States Army Corps of Engineers– Mr. Nigel Snoad, Product Manager for Google Crisis Response

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Short CoursesJanuary 6, 2013

• Ten Short Courses Scheduled, among them– AMS Short Course on Space Weather

• Aimed at all who desire an understanding of space weather and its associated impacts in order to better communicate space weather information to their audience

– AMS Short Course on Aviation Weather—A User and Provider Perspective• Will provide a fundamental understanding of the end-to-end

pathway of weather data and information critical to pilots’ decisions from the perspectives of both forecasters and aviation weather researchers.

For more info see http://annual.ametsoc.org/2013/ index.cfm/programs-and-events/short-courses/

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

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• Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD housing 800+ Federal employees, and contractors• 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)• NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and

Research (STAR)• NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists• Includes 464 seat auditorium/

conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

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Attribute Version 1 Configuration Version 2 Configuration

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levelsHumidity based clouds

100 km/64 levelsVariable CO2

AER SW & LW radiationPrognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blockingConvective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level LSMNo separate land data assim

4 level Noah modelGLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutesData assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995

analysis, uncoupled backgroundRadiances assimilated, 2008 GSI,

coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)124/month (week 3-6)

Configuration Comparison Between Climate Forecast System (CFS) v1 and CFS v2

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Include Impacts of Changing Climate InWeather and Seasonal Forecasts

• Investigation of ISI-Decadal linkages– CFS capability to recreate decadal temperature trend

OBSObserved temperature trend

CTRLCoupled atmosphere-ocean 50 year run with constant CO2

CO2Observed CO2 and aerosols in both troposphere and stratosphere

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mexico

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

OOZ 12Z 24ZO6Z 18Z

GFS Model Runtimes

Data Wait Time

Morning News Evening NewsLate Night News

Data Latency Issue

• The data wait time is driven principally by the satellite “latency” from polar orbiters.

2.75 hrs 2.75 hrs 2.75 hrs 2.75 hrs