Climate, Water, and Health · Climate, Water, and Health Hatim Sharif University of Texas at San Antonio . ... USA 2 1 Katrina . It was the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane ever

Climate, Water, and Health

Hatim Sharif

University of Texas

at San Antonio

Corvalan et al., 2003

Pathways from Driving Forces

to Potential Health Impacts

Potential Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change (Haines and Patz, J Amer Med Assoc, 2004)

Health Impacts of Heat and Humidity

Death

Heatstroke

Heat exhaustion

Smog

Increased vector and pathogen populations

Mold

Algae blooms

Distribution of Heat-Related Excess Mortality in France, August 1 – 15, 2003 (>

14,800 deaths)

Daily Mortality in Paris

Temperature-Mortality Relative Risk Functions for 11 US Cities (1973 – 1994) (Curreiro, et al., Am J Epidemiol, 2003)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

40 60 80 100 120

Mean Maximum Temperature (oF)

Da

ily

Ma

xim

um

Ozo

ne

(p

pm

)

South Coast Air Basin

Ozone Levels

(1996-1999)

Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006),

www.climatechange.ca.gov. Source: Air Resources Board, 2000

Hotter Days Lead to More Smog

Floods

Flooding can be cause by

Excessive rainfall

and/or rapid

snowmelt

Land use changes that

reduce infiltration,

surface roughness,

and retention

Failure of stormwater

system

Health Impacts of Floods

Immediate deaths and injuries

Nonspecific increases in mortality

Infectious diseases – leptospirosis, hepatitis, diarrheal, respiratory, and vector-borne diseases

Allergies (mold)

Displacement

Mental health effects

Increased demands on health systems

Health Impacts of Droughts

Wildfires (e.g Bastrop fire, most destructive in Texas history Sept 4/Oct 29, 2011): death, injury, property loss, mental health

Concentration of pollutants

Wind blown dust: respiratory illness, meningitis, evidence that mortality is increased in the days after a dust storm

Decreased water supply for municipal, industrial, and agricultural use

Flood Mortality

About 12% of US flood fatalities occurred here

•Second most fatal weather-related

disaster

•Second most costly weather-

related disaster

•Flash floods are most dangerous

Floods in the US

•Texas leads the nation in flood

fatalities

•Number of fatalities >3 times the

second state

•Fatalities every single year since start

of record

•Problem is persisting

Flood Fatalities in Texas

•National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Storm Data

•Spatial Hazard Event and Loss

Database (SHELDUS)

•Texas Department of State Health

Services (DSHS)

Sources of Data

Why Three Data Sources?

• NCDC: Most comprehensive, focused on

storms, misses some details

• SHELDUS similar to NCDC, more organized,

focused on floods, not as comprehensive as

NCDC

• DSHS very accurate in terms of person-time-

place, not very specific in terms of cause of

death (changes in ICD codes)

Relevant ICD codes

Period ICD Code Definition of cause of death

1999-2006 ICD-10 X38 Victim of Flood, include flood: arising from remote storm,

of cataclysmic nature arising from melting snow, resulting

directly from storm

1979-1998 ICD-9 E908.2 Torrential rainfall and flash flood

1968-1978 ICD-8 E908 Cataclysm, includes: cloudburst, cyclone, earthquake,

flood, hurricane, tidal wave, tornado, torrential rain,

volcanic eruption

1964-1967 ICD-7 E934.0-9 Cataclysm, includes: cloudburst, cyclone, earthquake,

flood, hurricane, tidal wave, tornado, torrential rain,

volcanic eruption

How does Texas compare to

other states? Rank State Fatalities Rank State Fatalities

1 Texas 840 26 Illinois 56

2 Louisiana 621 27 Kansas 55

3 Pennsylvania 265 28 Minnesota 55

4 Mississippi 252 29 New Jersey 50

5 California 246 30 Iowa 47

6 South Dakota 244 31 Montana 45

7 Virginia 237 32 Oregon 45

8 Colorado 185 33 Washington 39

9 Missouri 174 34 Michigan 31

10 North Carolina 155 35 Nevada 29

11 Wisconsin 149 36 Utah 26

12 Ohio 147 37 North Dakota 15

13 Kentucky 144 38 West Virginia 15

14 New York 134 39 Connecticut 14

15 Tennessee 131 40 Delaware 14

16 Arkansas 129 41 Nebraska 14

17 Georgia 120 42 Wyoming 14

18 Oklahoma 110 43 Maine 13

19 Maryland 101 44 New Hampshire 13

20 Arizona 86 45 Vermont 11

21 Indiana 79 46 Massachusetts 7

22 Florida 75 47 District of Columbia 4

23 Alabama 68 48 Idaho 4

24 New Mexico 68 49 Rhode Island 0

25 South Carolina 64

Flood fatalities for the 48 conterminous states and District Columbia

for the 1959-2008 period.

How does Texas really compare

to other states? Rank State Fatalities Rank State Fatalities

1 South Dakota 35.2 26 South Carolina 1.9

2 Louisiana 12.4 27 Alabama 1.7

3 Mississippi 9.9 28 Iowa 1.7

4 Colorado 6.0 29 Oregon 1.6

5 Montana 5.7 30 Utah 1.6

6 Arkansas 5.6 31 Indiana 1.4

7 Texas 5.4 32 Ohio 1.4

8 New Mexico 4.8 33 Minnesota 1.3

9 Virginia 4.1 34 New Hampshire 1.3

10 Kentucky 3.9 35 Maine 1.1

11 Oklahoma 3.6 36 California 0.9

12 Missouri 3.5 37 Nebraska 0.9

13 Wisconsin 3.1 38 Washington 0.9

14 Wyoming 3.0 39 West Virginia 0.8

15 Nevada 2.9 40 New York 0.8

16 Tennessee 2.8 41 New Jersey 0.7

17 Arizona 2.7 42 Florida 0.7

18 North Carolina 2.5 43 District of Columbia 0.6

19 North Dakota 2.3 44 Illinois 0.5

20 Kansas 2.3 45 Connecticut 0.4

21 Maryland 2.2 46 Idaho 0.4

22 Pennsylvania 2.2 47 Michigan 0.3

23 Delaware 2.2 48 Massachusetts 0.1

24 Vermont 2.0 49 Rhode Island 0.0

25 Georgia 2.0

Flood fatalities (normalized by population) for the 48 conterminous

states and District Columbia for the 1959-2008 period.

Flood mortality form the 3 databases

Flood Fatalities - NCDC

Normalized Flood Fatalities

Flood fatalities by flood type

Rain

15%

Flood

30%

Flash Flood

50%

Flooding

due to

Tropical

System

5%

Person

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 >80

Male

Female

Flood fatalities by age and gender (DSHS)

Person

Flood fatalities by gender (NCDC)

Male

46%

Female

21%

Unknown

33%

Person

Flood fatalities by age (NCDC)

0-9

11%

10--19

20%

20-29

17%30-39

9%

40-49

10%

50-59

11%

60-69

11%

70-79

7%

80-89

4%

Time

Time cont’d

Flood Fatalities Average Precipitation

0

50

100

150

200

250

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NCDC

SHELDUS

DSHS

Time of the day

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

12AM-6AM 6AM-12PM 12PM-6PM 6PM-12AM

NCDC

DSHS

Place

Fatalities by county

Fatalities by county

County Number of Fatalities

Bexar 68

Dallas 63

Travis 51

Harris 45

Tarrant 43

Place cont’d

Flood Fatalities Population

Place cont’d

Flood Fatalities Physiography

Place cont’d

Flood Fatalities Rainfall

Place (normalized)

Place cont’d

Percentage of flood fatalities by activity/location

Driving under the influence of water

• Most fatalities happen in urban areas and rural

areas surrounding urban centers

• Visibility can be a factor

• Mostly at low-water crossings

Motor vehicle-related flood fatalities by flood type

Rain

11%

Flood

25%

Flash

Flood

61%

Flooding due to

Tropical System

3%

Person

Motor vehicle-related flood fatalities by gender

Male

52%

Female

29%

Unknown

19%

Time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fatalities

Year

Place

Fatalities by county

• flashy nature of local streams and water courses

•Extended periods of drought reduce the overall

financial efficiency of large, expensive structures

•As a result, many crossings are armored sag vertical

curves, often with a small culvert pipe to prevent long-

term ponding of water

Low-water crossings in the Flash Flood Alley

U.S. Example

Houston 2001

San Antonio 2007

Take home message

• “In-place shelter” a good option

• Education is helping

• Forecasting can be improved

• Structural solutions are difficult

Outputs: Fort Collins Flood , 28 July 1997

Radar Precipitation Runoff Depth

Hurricanes 2005

Hurricane Katrina – calm eye is 1

August 28th 2005

New Orleans 2 on the Gulf of Mexico coast, USA

2

1

Katrina

It was the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the third-strongest landfalling U.S. hurricane on record.

The track of the hurricane 23rd to 29th August 2005.

Storm Surge

The intense LOW PRESSURE and strong winds

… allows sea level to rise

… Flooding coastal areas -several kilometres inland in some places

Initially it was hoped that New Orleans had weathered the worst of Katrina, but within hours of the storm passing, it emerged that several key levees had been breached …..

… causing floodwater to pour into the low-lying city.

Much of New Orleans lies below sea level. The city has a system of canals and levees topped with concrete floodwalls to keep water out. These are designed to withstand a category three hurricane, but when Katrina hit, they were quickly overwhelmed. Within 24 hours, 80% of the city was flooded.

Mississippi Delta

Levees broken and land flooded

Especially around New Orleans city.

By August 31, 2005, 80% of the city was flooded, with some parts under 6.1 meters of water.

Four of the city's protective levees were breached, including the 17th Street Canal levee, the Industrial Canal levee, and the London Avenue Canal floodwall.

Katrina

Hurricane Katrina

Aftermath

An interdisciplinary, critical inquiry.

Landfall

The Water is Rising

Flooding the French Quarter

A city built below sea level is sustained by a complex

system of dams serving as a buffer against storm

surges and the wetlands of the Mississippi Delta.

Boats travel flooded streets

New Orleans Superdome

Leaving the Superdome

Walking out on I-10

Is this the USA?

Thousands of residents from

New Orleans gather at an

evacuation staging area along

Interstate-10 in Metarie, La.,

on Thursday, Sept. 1, 2005.

AP Photo/Dave Martin

School buses flooded in New Orleans

Boat Jam on the road

Stranded on Rooftops

Louisiana State Troops

Rooftop Rescues Continue

Searching for survivors

Conclusion

• Storm forecasting is improving

• People not aware of storm surge models and

maps

• Need for improving storm surge products and

graphics