CLIMATE RISK: REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY L.A.OGALLO IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Dept. of.

CLIMATE RISK: REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

L.A.OGALLO

IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) www.icpac.net

Dept. of Met. University of Nairobi

KEY ISSUES

Review of Progress of S & T issues in support of Climate risk reduction:

GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS): An international framework to guide the development of climate services (UN system /WMO and all): WCC-3 plus recent WMO documents• Challenges of developing countries

Climate risks in developing countries

•Economic losses as percent of GDP eg one cyclone 10% GDP lost; One flood 15% on national economy (GDP) - followed immediately with severe drought lasting five years wiping serving livelihoods left by floods )

•Roles of Non climate hazards: Need for integrated Disaster risk reduction

•No sustainable development can be achieved within DRR

Infrastructure and Industry

5

Agriculture & Food Security

SOCIO - ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Knowledge of interactions at Global, Regional and Local level

(i) Research, S &T : Advance understanding / knowledge of Climate Risk

Hazards; Values at risks, Vulnerability vs capacity

- Mapping at global, regional and local levers

- Improved understanding of Causes and Linkages

- New tools and methods eg impacts, vulnerability, adaptation

- GIS

Experience from WMO regional centres

Examples of Floods are followed by droughts in Greater Horn of Africa

Need to understand extremes, predict and early warn

Know the hazards well and the interactions

Precipitation anomalies during El Niño in Winter

Key progress areas•Observations (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS,GEOSS------) re-analysed data, and enhanced monitoring (space based technology)

•Data recovery, Data base archiving, …and providing historical baseline references

•Modeling and prediction

•Early warning

•Availability of regional / sector specific down scaled climate products

•Dissemination and exchange of climate information and services

Progress in Climate risk reduction

•Networking and coordination (WMO system)

•Capacity building

•Linkages with users to reduce climate risks

•Institutional framework: Global , regional National, and LOCAL climate services

•Partnerships for pilot demonstrations

•Climate change challenges vs DRR

•Low Science and technological support to climate risk reduction

GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS)

-An international framework to guide the development of climate services (UN system /WMO and all)

-Framework to link climate science, developments in S & T with all climate related risks (climate variability, change and DRR)

Climate services including integrated Disaster risk reduction (Three tie WMO system)

•WMO Global Producing Centres for Long Range Forecasts•WMO Regional climate Centres of excellence•National Meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs)•LOCAL COMMUNITY LEVEL not very clear left to regional climate centres

Global Producing Centres for Long Range Forecasts

Beijing ExeterECMWF Melbourne

Montreal Moscow Seoul Toulouse Washington

2M Temperature (MAM 2010)Operational activities for long-range forecasting

MelbourneExeterBeijing ECMWF

Montreal Moscow Seoul Toulouse Washington

Rainfall (MAM 2010)

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Djibouti

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Somalia

Kenya

BurundiRwanda

Uganda

Tanzania

Sudan

10 ICPAC MEMBER COUNTRIES

Figure 1: Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook for the March to May 2010

RCOFs based Food RCOFs based Food Security outlooks Security outlooks FEWS/ NET; FEWS/ NET;

Translating prob. into rainfall anomalies

Most-likely scenarioMost-likely scenarioMAM 2010MAM 2010

SEECOFSEECOF(Southeastern (Southeastern Europe)Europe)

FOCRAIIFOCRAII(Asia)(Asia)

PICOFPICOF(Pacific (Pacific Islands)Islands)

SARCOFSARCOF(Southern Africa)(Southern Africa) SSACOFSSACOF

(Southeast of (Southeast of South South America)America)

WCSACOFWCSACOF(Western Coast of (Western Coast of South America)South America)

PRESAOPRESAO(West Africa)(West Africa)

GHACOFGHACOF(Greater Horn of (Greater Horn of Africa)Africa)

FCCAFCCA(Central (Central America)America)

CCOFCCOF(Caribbean)(Caribbean)

PRESACPRESAC(Central (Central Africa)Africa)

SASCOFSASCOF(India)(India)

Science and technology needs and Gaps

•Observations and data recovery / archiving

•Regional data base and data management

•Modeling, prediction and early warning

•Computing and related needs

- Lack of integrated DRR and S $ T policies (No clear linkages / clear policy for integration with DRR and S & T innovations)

- Knowing regional / local hazards

(Quantification of hazards, vulnerability)

- Human and technical capacity :Multi / Inter disciplinary

- Low investments in research, S & T

(Lack policy on Research, S & T largely sectors specific , driven by individuals)

- Weak National /regional Institutions , with minimum network with universities, and community based systems that could be used to demonstrate good practices

- Climate change challengesscenarios projections

• Lack of capability to use the available S & T and climate information

• Role of local/ Indigenous knowledge in DRR

• Finance : Opportunities eg climate fund

• Regional Collaborations / coordination and networks

- Assessment of existing capacity

- Enhance capacity of exiting institutions for multi disciplinary DDR approaches (eg The African regional centres)

CONCLUSION•Role that S $ T can play has been demonstrated

•Limitation of developing countries to take advantage of available S $ T in DRR •Regional Efforts: Ministerial conferences for MET and DRR; AUC workshop on the Global platform

•Global DRR Platform provide a framework for ensuring S&T to DRR in developing countries. These should include support for local / regional research and capacity building together with S&T innovations for local solutions