Climate q Report

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toward a greener QueenslandClimateQ:

Queensland’s climate change strategy



© The State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management), 2009.

Copyright inquiries should be addressed to [email protected] or the Department ofEnvironment and Resource Management, 160 Ann Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000.

Published by the Queensland Government, July 2009.DERM 00903_APR09

Printed on 100% recycled Australian made paper

ISBN 9311662183101

Carbon offs et certi cat ion sta tementThe greenhouse gas emissions associated with this document have beenoffset through Ecofund Queensland using Australian Government accreditedcarbon offsets from Queensland abatement projects. Ecofund Queenslandis a Queensland Government initiative to expand Queensland’s protectedareas and develop Queensland’s carbon industry.



Climate change is the vast and challenging issue ofour time.

Over the course of the next few decades, we willmake vital decisions that will echo for centuriesto come.

Industrialisation, powered by the burning of fossilfuels, has shaped the societies of today andunderpinned our material wellbeing. Australia’seconomic progress has increased the intensity ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere—far beyondany natural cycle.

As the world moves to meet this challenge, we wantQueensland to continue taking a lead role ondeveloping and implementing practical andinnovative measures that will enable us to tackleglobal warming issues.

Clim ateQ: toward a greener Queensland sets outthe next crucial steps for Queensland’s transitionto a lower carbon future.

It extends and strengthens our climate changeresponse to help everyone to take action todayfor tomorrow.

Australia has committed to play our part as globalcitizens. We are actively engaged in internationalnegotiations and have embarked on a detailedprogram of new policies and investments that willhelp us create a lower carbon future that all ourcitizens can be proud of.

As one of biggest greenhouse gas emitters in thecountry in both absolute and per capita terms,Queensland has much to gain from early action onclimate change and forging new opportunities for

all sectors of our economy. Our population is themost dispersed in the nation and growing thefastest. Our industries and our households are

energy intensive and emissions from land clearingalone continue at a high level compared withother states.

There is so much that people can do alreadyby taking some relatively simple steps toreduce emissions.

By making it cost-effective to make changes toreduce energy consumption, we believe thisstrategy gets the balance right on incentives,support and information for consumers. As oursuccess in water ef ciency has proven, Queenslandhouseholders and businesses can reduceconsumption and reap the bene ts at the

same time.

This strategy includes eight sectoral strategies toreset and expand our policy approach for managingfuture greenhouse gas impacts and safeguardingtomorrow’s Queensland.

Our state derives great economic bene t from ourvast reserves of coal. We are committed to ensuringthe coal industry has a sustainable future throughmajor public-private partnerships such as the$900 million A21 Coal Fund to develop carboncapture and storage technologies. Huge reservesof gas in Australia can initially support thetransition from our current dependency on coalas an energy source.

However, Queensland is no longer just abouttraditional energy resources like coal and gas.We have huge potential to unlock new andemerging renewable energy resources like solar,geothermal, wind and hydro. Under theQueensland Renewable Energy Plan the

government is broadening our renewable energyagenda to expand and accelerate action on cleanerenergy futures.

Foreword

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Together with the Government’s Toward Q2 plan,the review of the ClimateSmart 2050 has produceda suite of new initiatives and investments to takeQueensland’s long-term response to climate

change into a new phase. Early actions alreadyunderway and the community views that havehelped shape future priorities are also highlightedalong with a detailed analysis of climate changeprojections for Queensland’s 13 regions to helplocal communities plan better for impacts.

Critically, the new strategy complements thenational Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme andthe national Renewable Energy Target (RET) bypreparing industry and households for higherenergy costs.

ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland consolidates and updates the approach taken inClimateSmart 2050 and Queensland’sClimateSmart Adaptation 2007-12 action plan,

taking into account the latest national andinternational science and policy. Importantly,ClimateQ strengthens the focus on adapting to theimpacts and we will continue to invest heavily in

long term adaptation measures to helpQueenslanders deal with risks and challengesaffecting climate-dependent industries andcommunities. Building resilience to future changesoccurring in the natural environment over time iscentral to our policy response.

The effects of global warming will be with us forcenturies to come. What we do now collectively asa state, nation and planet is vitally importantto humanity.

We urge you to get involved in the Queenslandresponse where you can make thebiggest difference.

Together, we can make a difference.

Anna Bligh MP

Premier of Queensland and Minister for the Arts

Kate Jones MP

Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability

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ContentsKey Investments ................................................................................................................................vi

Key Policies ........................................................................................................................................x

The scienti c and policy context .......................................................................................................xii

1. Climate change – the picture for Queensland ........................................................................1

2. The international and national landscape .............................................................................7

3. Queensland’s greenhouse gas emissions ........................................................................... 15

4. Observed and projected climate change .............................................................................21

5. Climate change impacts on Queensland’s regions ...............................................................35

6. The economic costs of climate change ................................................................................45

7. The social costs of climate change .......................................................................................55

8. Queensland’s early response to climate change ..................................................................61

9. Future priorities for action ................................................................................................... 71

Our policy approach ..........................................................................................................................76

10. Energy – generating a new future ......................................................................................79

11. Queensla nd bus iness – a new operating climate .............................................................. 99

12. Pla nning a nd building – tools to minimise climate change impacts ..................................117

13. Community – householders reducing their carbon footprint .............................................131

14. Primary Indust ries – growth in a changing landscape ..................................................... 147

15. Trans port – moving towards a low carbon future..............................................................163

16. Ecosystems – protecting Queensland’s lifestyle and environment ................................... 177

17. Government – leading by example ...................................................................................189

List of shortened forms ..................................................................................................................201

Glossary .........................................................................................................................................205

List of gures and tables ................................................................................................................. 211

References ...................................................................................................................................... 215

Appendix 1: List of stakeholders ........................................................................................................A1

Appendix 2: Submissions received ....................................................................................................A3

Appendix 3: Regional climate change summaries ..............................................................................R1

Appendix 4: Progress report of initiatives in ClimateSmart 2050 and ClimateSmart Adap tati on 2007–12 .............................................................................................P1

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EnergyEnergy Conse rva tion and Demand Management Program($47.7 million)

Announced during the 2009-10 State Budget, the QueenslandGovernment will invest in a demonstration program to work withindustry and the community to reduce the growth in energy demand,particularly in periods of peak use.

Clea n energy for remote communities ($5 million)Announced during the 2009-10 State Budget, this Program will changethe way energy is supplied and used within remote communities inWestern Queensland, Cape York and the Torres Straight Islands currentlyreliant on diesel for electricity generation, reducing greenhouse gasemissions and energy costs.

Queensla nd Renewa ble Energy Pla nLaunched in June 2009, the Plan provides a roadmap to expandthe renewable energy sector in Queensland, attract investment andcreate new green industries and jobs.

Queensland Business

ClimateSmart Business Se rvice ($15 million)As announced during the 2009-10 State Budget, the ClimateSmartBusiness Service will assist Queensland businesses reduce theiremissions and prepare for higher energy and other input costs. TheService will be similar to the popular ClimateSmart Home Serviceexcept that it will be targeted at Queensland’s small to mediumsize enterprises.

Skills development for a low-ca rbon economy ($600 000)The Queensland Government is developing a vocational educationand training Sector Sustainability Policy and Action Plan to meet thegreen skilling and workforce development needs of industries

and individuals.Carbon Outlook: underst a nding carbon impact s on business($500 000)

The government is working with a number of Queensland rms in keysectors to better understand the risks and opportunities of the CarbonPollution Reduction Scheme. This information will be used to informpolicies and programs such as the ClimateSmart Business Service.

Key Inves tments

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Pla nning a nd BuildingGreen Building Skills Fund ($500 000)

The Green Buildings Skills Fund is a 2009 election commitment toboost sustainability expertise within Queensland’s building andconstruction sector by subsidising 50 per cent of the costs foraccredited training courses.

Improved mapping for climate chang e respons es ($8 million)To better understand the impacts of sea level rise, storm surge andcoastal erosion along Queensland’s coastline, the government willdeliver a Digital Elevation Model which will be used to createinteractive, computer based maps for use by a range of stakeholders.

CommunitySupporting Our Heroes ($13 million)

A 2009 election commitment, the government will strengthen theresponse capacity of the State Emergency Service and Rural FireService to respond to natural disasters by providing additionalequipment and resources such as rescue vehicles, ood boats, retankers and support programs.

Disa ster preparedness in vulnerable communities ($7.7 million)Announced during the 2009-10 State Budget, this program willincrease the capacity of vulnerable households, businesses,communities and local governments to prepare for more frequentand severe disaster events as a result of climate change.

Bush re community tra ining packa ge ($4.6 million)Announced during the 2009-10 State Budget, this program willdevelop and support a network of 3000 Volunteer CommunityEducation Of cers to deliver bush re education to their localcommunities and increase bush re preparedness in Queensland.

Disas ter manag ement warehouses and caches ($3.4 million)

Announced during the 2009-10 State Budget, the government willestablish warehouses in south-east Queensland and Townsville tostore stockpiles of emergency equipment, and further equip existingdisaster management caches in Cairns, Rockhampton, Toowoombaand Beenleigh.

Keeping our Mob Clima teS a fe ($2 million)The government will help remote indigenous communities preparefor the impacts of extreme weather events by providing training,resources and exercises in disaster management.

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Primary IndustriesExtend ing the Rura l Wa ter Use Ef ciency Init ia tive (RWUE)($4.5 million)

Announced during the 2009-10 State Budget, this program willextend the highly successful RWUE program to further prepareQueensland’s irrigators for declining water availability together withopportunities to use energy more ef ciently.

Identifying the ca rbon potential of nat ive vegeta tion($3.5 million)

The government is developing a web based information system toassist landowners to establish carbon forestry projects usingregrowth vegetation for the domestic carbon market.

Helping prima ry producers ad apt to clima te chang e($3.2 million)

The government will provide information and tools to help primaryproducers in Queensland manage climate change risks and takeadvantage of emerging opportunities.

TransportImproving traf c ow for reduced emiss ions ($39.3 million)

Investment in state-of-the-art computer-based transport systems willseek to reduce traf c emissions by easing congestion on key roadsand motorways in south-east Queensland.

Vehicle offsets cont ribution s cheme ($4.5 million)Commencing in 2009, the Queensland Government will encouragemotorists to offset their vehicles greenhouse gas emissions bymatching the voluntary contributions of motorists. This funding willbe used to purchase offsets to support the climate change corridorsfor biodiversity initiative.

TravelSmart Workpla ces a nd Events ($5.2 million)The government will work to reduce emissions from transport bypromoting walking, cycling, carpooling and using public transport toget to work, major events and key destinations such as touristattractions, large shopping centres and universities.

TravelS mart Schools ($5 million)The successful TravelSmart Schools program, which encouragesstudents, families and staff to travel to school by walking, cycling,car pooling or public transport, will be expanded statewide.

Fast er, bett er, sa fer walking a nd cycling ($2.9 million)The Government will accelerate the planning and development of keywalking and cycling infrastructure in south-east Queensland.

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Public Transport Pla nning Tool ($1.3 million)A planning tool will be developed to measures an area’s publictransport accessibility, based on how easy it is to access importantservices such as hospitals, schools, shops and workplaces bywalking, cycling or public transport.

Low emiss ion bus tria l ($1.4 million)The government will undertake a trial of low-emissiondiesel-electric buses in the public transport eet in south-eastand regional Queensland.

FreightS mart (including Port of Brisbane t rial) ($720,000)The Queensland Government will partner with the freight industry toinvestigate ways of streamlining freight deliveries to reduce urbancongestion and greenhouse gas emissions.

EcosystemsClimate change corridors for biodiversity ($9 million fromEcofund)

This initiative will target the protection and management oflandscape corridors, by purchasing areas of high potential

biodiversity value and restoring vegetation.

Improved re mana gement in na tiona l parks ($6.5 million)The government will revise and implement planned burning regimesthat incorporate climate change projections and identify ecosystemsvulnerable to re under hotter and drier conditions.

GovernmentEnergy Ef ciency Retro t Program ($8 million)

As announced in the 2009-10 State Budget, the state government willprogressively retro t existing government buildings to increase energyef ciency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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EnergyConditions for new coal- red generat ion

To support the transition of the energy sector to a low carbon future, theapproval of new coal red power stations will be conditional on meetingcriteria relating to greenhouse gas emissions.

Electricity Demand Mana gement Regula tionThe government is introducing demand management and reportingobligations for electricity distributors to ensure they identify andexploit demand management opportunities.

Queensland BusinessReducing green tape for business ($1 million)

Partnering with industry stakeholders, the government will exploreways to streamline regulations covering energy, water and pollutantsand simplify state reporting requirements.

Pla nning a nd BuildingClea ner Greener Buildings ($450 000)

A 2009 election commitment, this initiative will lift environmentalstandards for all new homes, of ces, and government buildings andremove existing barriers to ClimateSmart development.

Green Door for high performa nce developmentsA 2009 election commitment, the government will fast-track leadingedge, sustainable and energy ef cient developments through aGreen Door, using dedicated case managers and expandedMinisterial powers to speed up development decisions.

Fa cilita ting low-emiss ion energy generat ion incommercial buildings ($200 000)

The Queensland Government will partner with key stakeholdersto develop planning and assessment guidelines for on-siteenergy generation for use by the development industry andlocal government.

CommunityQueensla nd So lar Hot Wa ter Program

A 2009 election commitment, the program will deliver up to 200 000solar hot water and heat pump systems to eligible Queenslandhouseholds at signi cantly reduced cost to reduce greenhouse gasemissions and cut household electricity bills.

Key Policies

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Primary Industries a nd EcosystemsRecognising carbon right s on lea sehold la nd

A 2009 election commitment, the government will work with theCommonwealth Government to ensure that regrowth vegetation oncleared land is eligible for carbon trading under the CPRS. Thegovernment will also amend legislation to recognise carbon rights onleasehold land.

Identifying the ca rbon potentia l of land uses ($60 000)This initiative will support world leading research by the CSIRO to

investigate the carbon bene ts that can be achieved from a range ofland uses, such as forestry, regrowth and agriculture.

Trans portGreening the ta xi eet ($70 000)

The use of low emission vehicles, such as petrol-electric hybrids orsmall diesel passenger vehicles in the taxi eet, will be encouragedby giving a preference to tenders for taxi service licences where thetaxi operator agrees to purchase and operate a green vehicle.

Government leadershipFive sta r ra ting for new government-owned of ce buildings

The Queensland Government will increase its energy ef ciencyperformance standard for all new government-owned of ce buildingsto target a 5-star (out of 5) non-residential energy performancestandard (where practical to do so).

Clima te rea dy infras tructure g rants ($800 000)The Queensland Government will partner with local government toensure that greenhouse gas reduction and climate changeadaptation considerations are addressed in applications for stategovernment grants for new infrastructure.

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The scient i c and policy context

The following sect ion of ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland providesa contextual ra tionale a round the importa nce of action for managing futuregreenhouse gas impacts and preserving tomorrow’s Queens land.

Climate Change —The picture forQueensland

The internat ional and na tiona l landscape

Queensla nd’s g reenhouse ga s emissions

Observed a nd projected climate change

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Climate change impacts onQueensland’s regions

The economic and social cos ts ofclima te change

Queensla nd’s early response toclima te change

Future priorities for action

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ClimateQ: toward a greenerQueensland represents the next stepsin tackling Queensland’s climatechange challenges. In an environment

of rapidly emerging policy and science,this strategy presents a contemporaryapproach and sets a framework fortransitioning to the green economy.

Achieving meaningful greenhouse gas reductionsin Queensland is a dif cult task. The state has anenergy-intensive economy that is reliant on fossilfuel energy sources and a rapidly growing, dispersedpopulation. Queensland’s average greenhouse gas

emissions per person are among the highest in theworld. Queensland is responsible for around30 per cent of Australia’s annual emissions, in spite

of having just approximately 20 per cent of thepopulation (DCC, 2009c; ABS, 2008b). On currenttrends (business as usual), Queensland’sgreenhouse gas emissions are projected to increaseby nearly 50 per cent to almost 250 million tonnesby 2050 (The Nous Group & SKM, 2008).

Together with the Government’s Toward Q2 plan,ClimateQ presents a range of initiatives andpolicies to reduce the state’s emissions, preparefor the impacts of climate change and supportthe transition to a carbon-constrained‘green’ economy.

ClimateQ builds on the previous measures inClimateSmart 2050 and ClimateSmart Adaptation2007–12 , and positions Queensland at the

forefront of climate change responses—continuingto lead the nation with the most comprehensivesuite of policy initiatives of any state or territory.

Climate change—the picturefor Queensland

1.


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1.Reducing greenhousegas emissions:Queensland playing its partnationally andinternationally to stabiliseglobal warming.

Australia’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions are the highest of any Organisation for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD) country and are among the highest in the world (Garnaut, 2008b).If the country is to avoid the worst impacts of unmitigated climate change, it is urgent that globalatmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilised at a level necessary to prevent dangerousclimate change. Stabilisation will require global greenhouse gas emissions to peak and decline thereafter.The lower the stabilisation level, the more quickly this peak and decline will need to occur (IPCC, 2007b).

This provides a challenge in both stopping the current growth in emissions and implementing programs toreduce emissions over time.

Australia has an international responsibility to stabilise and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. In

his climate change review, Professor Ross Garnaut described Australia’s greenhouse gas mitigationefforts as its contribution to keeping alive the possibility of an effective global agreement on mitigation. .

2.Lowering the cost tohouseholdsand businesses:Queenslanders investing in

ef ciency to save moneyand avoid the costs ofhigher energy prices.

The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) will result in consumers paying more for a range ofgoods and services as businesses pass on the carbon price. For example, electricity generators willpass on their costs through higher electricity prices.

While the Commonwealth Government has agged compensation for the community and industrysectors likely to be most affected by introducing a price on carbon, there are still signi cant bene tsin implementing energy ef ciency measures.

Investing in energy ef ciency enables consumers to avoid some of these higher energy prices. Over time,the cost of implementing these measures will be offset by the savings made through reduced energy use.

The fve key themes underpinning Queensland’sresponse to climate change



3. Investing in theproductive future ofkey industries:Targeting research,development andcommercial application ofnew technology and sciencein Queensland.

The successful development and deployment of new technologies will be critical to minimising the

impacts of a carbon-constrained future on business and the community. There are potentially large andearly gains from better use of known technologies, goods and services, including energy ef ciency andlow emission transport options (Garnaut, 2008b).

The Garnaut Climate Change Review identi ed the need for new technologies and processes that willsupport mitigation efforts in ve key areas:

energy ef ciency•electricity generation•transport•agriculture and forestry•sequestration.•

The research and deployment of new technologies is also essential to lowering the potential costs ofadapting to climate change. In particular, research into adaptation challenges for agriculture, the builtenvironment and biodiversity, will play a direct and signi cant role.

4. ProtectingQueensland’snatural wonders:Conserving andreplenishing signi cantecosystems that areessential to the vitality andproductivity of agriculture,

sheries and tourism.

Queensland is one of the most biodiverse regions in the world and includes internationally signi cantenvironments such as the Great Barrier Reef. Natural systems are highly vulnerable to potential climatechange impacts, particularly if the change is rapid.

Ongoing research has provided signi cant insights into the impacts of climate change on ecosystems.In many cases, managing direct impacts will be extremely dif cult. A broader objective is to improve theresilience of ecosystems to climate impacts by managing other non-climate threats.



5. Adapting to theimpacts of climatechange:Providing information,building resilienceand improving planning inQueensland.

Regardless of action to reduce emissions, the build-up and long life of greenhouse gases will causeglobal temperatures to continue to rise. Queensland needs to adapt to the impacts of a changingclimate that are already occurring.

It is essential for Queensland to build resilience within its communities and industries to adapt to theinevitable impacts of climate change. In key areas such as the built environment and agriculture, it isessential that Queensland prepares for change.

There is an important role for government to provide information on the impacts of climate change. Thisinformation will support communities and businesses preparing for the potential risks of climate change.



Understanding climate changeClimate is usually de ned as the “average weather” or, more rigorously, as a statistical descriptionof the mean and variability in the weather over a period of time. Therefore, climate change refers toa statistically signi cant change in either the average weather, or its variability over a period of time.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Reportconcluded that it is “very likely” (more than 90 per cent probability) that most of the warmingin the past 50 years is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, whichhas ampli ed the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect is ordinarily a natural process that traps heat in the atmosphere tocreate climatic conditions in which humans, plants and animals live. Evidence has shown thathuman activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, increase the concentration of greenhousegases including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. This is known as

the “enhanced greenhouse effect”, which causes more heat to be trapped in the atmosphere,resulting in rises in global temperatures that contribute to global warming. These processesare described in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1: The natural and enhanced greenhouse effectSource: DCC, 2008g


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In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that warming of the•world’s climate systems is unequivocal and regional climate changes are occurring.

That same year marked a signi cant shift in Australia’s national response to climate•change, with the rati cation of the Kyoto Protocol by the new CommonwealthGovernment and a commitment to introduce a national emissions trading scheme.

In 2008, the Garnaut Climate Change Review provided a comprehensive assessment of•the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy and the potential costs ofboth reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.

2.The international andnational landscape

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2.1 The United NationsFramework Convention

on Climate Change andthe Kyoto ProtocolThe signi cant cuts in greenhouse gas emissionsrequired to stabilise atmospheric concentrationsand mitigate climate change impacts can only beachieved globally. Addressing climate changetherefore requires multilateral action.

The United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) sets an overallframework for intergovernmental efforts to tacklethe challenge of climate change. The ultimateobjective of the UNFCCC is to stabilise greenhousegas concentrations in the atmosphere at a levelthat would prevent ‘dangerous’ climate change.

It was in 1997, at the third Conference of the Partiesto the UNFCCC at Kyoto, Japan, that the KyotoProtocol was adopted. An international treaty, theKyoto Protocol sets legally binding targets forindustrialised countries to reduce their combinedemissions from 1990 levels by an average of

ve per cent over 2008—2012. Over 180 partieshave rati ed the Kyoto Protocol to date.

Australia rati ed the Kyoto Protocol in late 2007,binding it to limit greenhouse gas emissions to an8 per cent increase over 1990 levels. Globaldiscussions are now focused on the challenge ofemission reductions beyond those set downin Kyoto.

The UNFCCC conference, held in Bali in 2007,

established a roadmap for a post-2012international agreement on climate change. Thisincluded new commitments for the developedworld and nationally appropriate mitigation actionsby developing countries in the context ofsustainable development. These negotiations aimto be completed at the UNFCCC 15th Conference ofthe Parties in Copenhagen in December 2009.

2.2 TheIntergovernmental

Panel on ClimateChangeThe 2007 release of the Fourth Assessment Report(AR4) on climate change by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) gained nationaland international reaction, with the report’s

ndings sparking calls for greater action to addressgreenhouse gas emissions.

The IPCC is a scienti c intergovernmental body setup by the World Meteorological Organisation andby the United Nations Environment Programme.The IPCC provides decision-makers with objectiveinformation based on scienti c evidence about thecauses of climate change, its potentialenvironmental and socio-economic consequencesand the adaptation and mitigation options torespond to it. The IPCC also provides informationbased on existing research within the scienti ccommunity. Its input, combined with theintergovernmental nature of the IPCC, means that

scienti c, technical and socio-economicinformation is provided in a policy-relevant, butpolicy-neutral way.

In its AR4, the IPCC concluded that the warming ofclimate systems is undeniable and many naturalsystems are being affected by regional climatechanges, particularly temperature increases (IPCC,2007c). It is also very likely that changes in theglobal climate system will continue well into thefuture and will be larger than those seen in therecent past (IPCC, 2007c).

The IPCC also concluded that in order to stabilisethe concentration of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere, emissions would need to peak anddecline thereafter. The lower the stabilisation level,the more rapidly this peak and decline would needto occur (IPCC, 2007c).

The IPCC indicated that to achieve the lowestmitigation scenario, emissions would need topeak by 2015 (IPCC, 2007c).

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2.3 Australian actionon climate changeThe rati cation of the Kyoto Protocol in 2007 bythe Commonwealth Government represented amajor change in national policy and demonstratedits commitment to international mechanisms toaddress climate change.

In addition, the Commonwealth Government hasa long-term national emissions reduction target of60 per cent below 2000 levels by 2050, anda short-term target of between 5 and 25 per centbelow 2000 levels by 2020.

The Commonwealth Government is leading thenational response to climate change through theCouncil of Australian Governments (COAG),focusing on the key areas of:

emissions trading •

renewable energy•

energy ef ciency•

adapting to climate change•

other measures to reduce emissions which•

complement emissions trading.

2.4 The GarnautClimate Change

ReviewIn 2007, the then Leader of the Opposition,Kevin Rudd, together with the Australian statesand territories, commissioned the Garnaut ClimateChange Review (the Garnaut Review). Led byeminent economist Professor Ross Garnaut,the Garnaut Review was the rst extensiveassessment of the impacts of climate change onthe Australian economy and providedrecommendations for medium to long-term policies

to respond to the challenges of climate change.Released in 2008, the Garnaut Review wasunequivocal about the need for Australia torespond quickly to climate change. Similar to theassessment of Sir Nicholas Stern in 2006, thedetailed modelling of the Garnaut Review found areal and very high cost of inaction, and quanti edthe positive economic bene ts of early action.

The Garnaut Review’s comprehensive assessmentof climate change science, impacts and costs

highlighted the serious risks of dangerousclimate change and made a case for Australianaction to reduce emissions. It set out key policychallenges, international developments and clearrecommendations for the design of an emissionstrading scheme.

In summary, the Garnaut Review found:The weight of scienti c evidence points to•high risks from unmitigated climate change.

While there is uncertainty about what the•threshold tipping point of dangerous climatechange might be, growth in emissions willhave severe and costly impacts on Australia’sagriculture, infrastructure, biodiversityand ecosystems.

The economic costs for Australia of•unmitigated climate change would be far higherthan previously thought and far higher than thecosts of mitigation.

Domestic climate change policy must be•deeply integrated into global discussions andagreements. Australia’s mitigation effort is a

demonstration of international leadership toin uence an effective global agreementon mitigation.




An emissions trading scheme (ETS), if designed•and implemented well, is the best approachfor reducing Australia’s greenhousegas emissions.

Complementary measures will be needed to• correct market failures not addressed by an ETS,such as building standards, transport planningand low emission technology researchand development.

A stronger Australian climate science•effort is required.

Potential impacts to Queensland include:Signi cant loss of biodiversity, including major•impacts on the Wet Tropics rainforests and the

effective destruction of the Great Barrier Reef.Water security problems are likely to intensify•by 2030 and increased drought severity willimpact on agricultural sectors.

Increased severity of ooding and tropical•cyclones.

Resources industry (including coal)•affected by declining terms of trade andlowered commodity prices.

Impacts on health from increases in heatwaves•

and infectious diseases, as well as extremeweather events and dislocation.

The full Garnaut Climate Change Review can befound at www.garnautreview.org.au.

2.5 The CarbonPollution ReductionSchemeThe Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)is the Commonwealth Government’s proposedemissions trading scheme. The CPRS will be thecentral policy mechanism for delivering mitigationaction in Australia and achieving national emissionreduction targets. The objective of the CPRSis to meet these targets in a fexible and cost-effective way.

The CPRS is a cap and trade scheme that placesa price on carbon. It does this by setting an annuallimit, or cap on the amount of pollution thatbusinesses and industries covered under the scheme

can emit into the atmosphere each year(DCC, 2008a). The cap de nes the total numberof Australian carbon pollution permits that willbe issued in a year and allows rms to tradepermits to facilitate cost-effective abatement acrossthe economy.

2.5.1 CoverageThe CPRS will have broad sectoral coverage, withapproximately 75 per cent of Australia’s emissionscovered by the scheme. Broad coverage ensuresthat the cost of reducing emissions is shared moreevenly across the economy. The following sectorsare included in the scheme:

stationary energy•

transport•mining •industrial processes•waste•forestry (on a voluntary basis)•

Agriculture is excluded until at least 2015.

From its proposed commencement in July 2011, theCPRS will require Australia’s largest emitters (thoseemitting more than 25 000 tonnes of greenhouse

gases per year) to purchase permits. It is expectedthat around 1000 Australian companies will beliable under the scheme. The CPRS requires these

rms to surrender a ‘pollution permit’ for everytonne of carbon they emit into the atmosphere.

The nancial cost associated with acquiringor generating these permits provides a strongincentive for these businesses and industries toreduce their emissions. From 2012, permits can betraded between businesses, allowing them to bebought by those who value them most. Additional

permits may also be issued to landholders if theyplant forests that meet criteria for storing carbon.

2.5.2 Impacts of carbon priceon the economy Under the CPRS, the cost of electricity, natural gas,petrol, diesel, cement, chemicals, fertiliser andother inputs will all increase. This will lead tohigher production and logistics costs. Wastedisposal will also be more expensive and transport

costs will be higher. These cost increases will owthrough the entire economy, affecting allbusinesses and households (see Figure 2.1).




Fuel tax changes• : A portion of the revenue willfund reduced fuel taxes to compensate theamount that fuel costs will increase under theCPRS. The fuel tax changes will be reviewedafter three years.

Emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries• :An assistance package will help emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industries adjust toincreased costs. Free permits will be issued tothese rms based on certain eligibility criteria.

Climate Change Action Fund• : A fund will beestablished to provide targeted assistance tobusiness, community sector organisations,workers, regions and communities to helptransition to a carbon-constrained economy.

Strongly Affected Industries• : Assistance will beprovided in the rst 5 years of the scheme tosome emissions-intensive, coal- redelectricity generators.

These assistance measures will help inbuffering the impact of carbon pricing on theQueensland economy, particularly the highnumber of emissions-intensive, trade-exposedindustries in Queensland.

Some of these costs can be offset by increasing theef ciency of energy and other inputs to production.

Commonwealth modelling of the impacts of theCPRS on the economy (completed prior to thecurrent economic downturn and discussed in moredetail in Chapter 6) indicates that the Australianeconomy will continue to grow despite the impactsof carbon pricing.

2.5.3 Adjustment assistanceThe Commonwealth Government intends to use thefunds raised by the sale of CPRS permits tocompensate households (particularly low incomehouseholds) for the increase in energy and other

costs, and to provide transitional assistance forthe most affected rms.

For example, the sale of permits is expected toraise over $12 billion in revenue in 2012–2013, tobe divided broadly into the following assistancepackages (DCC, 2009e):

Households• : A signi cant proportion of therevenue will be distributed to householdsthrough one-off increases in pensions and otherbene ts, with a lift in the low income tax bene tfor low and middle income families.

I

Underground blackcoal mine could bear

obligation for fugitive emissions

Higher coal prices

Coal-fired electricitygenerator could

bear obligation for fuelcombustion emissions

(stationary energy)

Petroleum refinerscouldbear obligation

for transport emissions

Fertiliser producerscould bear obligation for

nitrogen emissions

Higher petrol prices Higher fertiliser prices

Higher electricity prices Farmers

Lower supply prices Higher food prices

Meat or dairy producerscould bear obligation

for methane emissions

Households

Figure 2.1: Example of how an emissions price will ow through the economySource: modi ed from Garnaut, 2008b

The cost of carbon will ow through the economy from producers to end users




2.5.4 Encouraging voluntaryactionTo encourage voluntary action to reduce emissions,

the Commonwealth Government will recognisethe purchase of additional GreenPower™ whensetting future CPRS caps. It will also retire anequivalent amount of Australia’s Kyoto units toachieve emissions reductions beyond Australia’sexisting targets.

The government has also committed to establishan Australian Carbon Trust to encourage energyef ciency. The Trust will be comprised of an:

Energy Ef ciency Savings Pledge Fund:•

Households and businesses will be able toapply the savings gained from cutting energyuse to make tax deductible donations that willbe used to buy and cancel pollution permits,thereby achieving emissions reductions beyondAustralia’s existing targets.

Energy Ef ciency Trust: A Trust will provide loans•to business to cover the upfront costs of energyef ciency projects (DCC, 2009g).

2.6 ComplementarymeasuresWhile the CPRS will be the primary driver forAustralia’s emission reductions, other measureswill be needed to address market failures that thescheme cannot ef ciently overcome (DCC, 2008a).Measures will also be needed to drive emissionmitigation in sectors not covered by the CPRSand to support the research, developmentand demonstration of new technologies.Such measures are considered complementaryto the CPRS.

2.6.1 Helping the CPRS achieveleast cost abatementWhile the CPRS addresses the primary market failureof unpriced greenhouse gas emissions, other marketfailures have the potential to raise the economiccost of adjusting to a low carbon economy.

These include: a lack of information; an inabilityto pay high upfront costs (despite potentialsavings later); price incentives not owing to the

appropriate decision-makers; and insuf cientincentives for rms to invest in innovation(Garnaut, 2008b).

Market failures prevent individuals and rms fromresponding effectively to the emissions price; thatis, they prevent the market from implementing themost cost-effective emissions reductionsmeasures. This increases the cost of reducingemissions in other sectors of the economy.

By helping to overcome these failures,complementary measures can reduce the cost ofadjusting to a low-emissions economy, allowingthe CPRS to achieve emissions reductions at alower cost than would occur if the scheme wasoperating alone.

2.6.2 Supporting theuptake of new technologiesWhile the price on carbon established underthe CPRS provides an incentive to develop newlow-emissions technologies, other market failurescan impede optimal investment in innovation.

Private investors may under-invest in innovationbecause the innovator often bears all the costs of

demonstrating and bringing a new technology tomarket. Later movers can share in all theassociated bene ts without having to bear thesecosts (Garnaut, 2008b). These bene ts to a rm’scompetitors can result in a disincentive for any

rm to be the early mover.




Complementary measures can provide incentivesfor rms to innovate and ensure that bothindividual rms and the economy can bene tfrom the research and development of new, lowemission technologies.

2.6.3 Overcoming informationbarriersDespite the cost-effectiveness of many energyef ciency opportunities under emissions pricing,their take-up can be inhibited by market failuressuch as information barriers (Garnaut, 2008b).

Examples of information barriers include whereindividuals or rms do not implement energy

ef ciency measures because they are not aware ofthe options, or do not understand the bene ts ofef ciency. Individuals or rms may also nd it hardto invest the upfront time and resources needed to

nd and assess information about the costs andbene ts of different energy ef ciency options.

The CPRS can be complemented by informationand education programs that help people toidentify the savings that can be made throughef ciency measures.

2.6.4 Providing theright incentivesThe take up of cost-effective emissions reductionmeasures is impeded if the carbon price signalprovided by the CPRS does not ow to thosemaking decisions about the purchase orinstallation of these measures.

This is referred to as the principal-agent problem,or ‘split-incentives’. It is a type of market failure

that occurs when those making decisions aboutenergy ef ciency or emissions reduction optionsdo not get to bene t from the potential ongoingcost savings. The price incentives under thescheme are therefore not owing to theright people.

For example, in the rental market, landlords aregenerally responsible for the purchase andmaintenance of xed appliances like water heaters.However, because the tenant pays the energy billsthere is no incentive for landlords to invest in

energy ef cient options, even if energy prices riseunder emissions pricing (Garnaut, 2008b).

Governments can implement measures such asregulatory changes or information campaigns toassist individuals to respond to the carbon pricesignal established under the CPRS. This will helpreduce energy consumption and lower the costsof emissions reduction.

2.6.5 Supporting emissionsreduction in sectors notcovered by the CPRSThe CPRS will cover around 75 per cent ofAustralia’s emissions. Broad coverage helps toreduce the overall cost to the Australian economyof achieving emissions reductions. Emissions notcovered by the scheme can help reduce theemissions reduction burden on covered sectors.It can also help to ensure that businesses competeon a more level playing eld.

Additional government measures can promoteabatement activity in sectors not covered by theCPRS. For example, in the agricultural sector theremay be opportunities to improve carbonsequestration through better management of soilcarbon. This is covered in greater detail in thePrimary Industries chapter.




2.6.6 Coordinating climatechange action across AustraliaThrough the Council of Australian Governments

(COAG), state and territory governments and theCommonwealth Government established the COAGWorking Group on Climate Change and Waterto develop a consistent approach to measurescomplementary to the CPRS.

Some of the measures that are additional to anemissions trading scheme are most appropriatelyimplemented at a commonwealth level—forexample the expanded national Renewable EnergyTarget (RET).

States and territories play a key role in thedevelopment and implementation of nationalclimate change initiatives.

Through COAG, Queensland is continuing to workcollaboratively with the CommonwealthGovernment and other states and territories onclimate change initiatives.

The Queensland Government is also undertakinga range of Queensland-speci c climate changeinitiatives to complement the CPRS, and help

Queensland businesses and communities adjust toa carbon price. As part of the development ofClimateQ , and in light of the introduction ofa national emissions trading scheme, theQueensland Government has carefully reviewed itsexisting climate change initiatives to ensure thatthey are complementary to the scheme, andsupport its effectiveness (refer to Chapter 9: Futurepriorities for action).

Climate change as a ‘marketfailure’A market failure occurs when prices within amarket do not accurately re ect the true costsof producing goods and services. Costs whichare often absent from market pricing includeenvironmental, resource scarcity and socialcosts.

According to Sir Nicholas Stern:

“The problem of climate change involves afundamental failure of markets: those whodamage others by emitting greenhouse gasesgenerally do not pay.

“Climate change is a result of the greatestmarket failure the world has seen. The evidenceon the seriousness of the risks from inaction ordelayed action is now overwhelming. We riskdamages on a scale larger than the two worldwars of the last century. The problem is globaland the response must be collaboration on aglobal scale.”

(Benjamin, 2007)

One way to correct this market failure is toprice greenhouse gas emissions in a way thatre ects the true cost of climate change.




Queensland has an emissions-intensive economy, based on an historic access to cheap•fossil fuel-based energy sources. Long term projected economic and population growthis continuing to fuel demand for energy and growth in emissions.

This trend presents considerable challenges for Queensland in reducing greenhouse•gas emissions.

Australia’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions are the highest in the OECD and•among the highest in the world.

Queensland is the highest emitter of greenhouse gases in Australia and its per capita•emissions are the highest of all Australian states.

Despite these circumstances, Queensland has undertaken signi cant and innovative•actions to reduce emissions.

3.Queensland’sgreenhouse gas emissions




3.1 Australia’sgreenhouse gas

emissionsAustralia’s per capita greenhouse gas emissionsare the highest of any OECD country (see Figure 3.1)and are among the highest in the world(Garnaut, 2008a).

Per capita emissions are an important indicatorof the relative contribution of different states andcountries to global emissions. In negotiating globalemissions targets, it is important to recognise thatsome countries can be expected to have a greaterresponsibility for reductions than others, relativeto population.

In 2007, Australia’s net greenhouse gasemissions were 597 million tonnes (Mt) of carbondioxide equivalent (CO 2-e). Between 1990 and2007, Australia’s net emissions increased by9.3 per cent (or 50.9 Mt) (DCC, 2009c). During thisperiod, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growthranged between 2–4 per cent annually in Australia(ABS, 2007b).

The changing national emissions pro le is shownin Figure 3.2, including changes in the relativecontribution of the major sectors. Emissions fromstationary energy increased by more than49 per cent between 1990 and 2007. Over the sameperiod, there was a substantial reduction (about57 per cent) in emissions from land use, land usechange and forestry (DCC, 2009c).

The stationary energy sector is the highestcontributor to emissions in Australia

Figure 3.2: Australian greenhouse gasemissions by sector 1990 and 2007Source: DCC, 2009c

i

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Queensland’s per capita emissions were morethan triple the OECD average in 2005

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Figure 3.1: Per capita greenhouse gas emissionsin 2005*Source: DCC, 2009c; Garnaut, 2008b; ABS, 2008b 1

* the most recent world gures available for purposes ofcomparison




3.2 Queensland’sgreenhouse gas

emissions3.2.1 Historical emissions

During the period from 1990 to 2007, Queensland’snet greenhouse gas emissions increasedmoderately by around 8.9 per cent from 166.7 MtCO2-e to 181.9 Mt CO2-e (DCC, 2009).

Figure 3.3 presents that change in emissions fromQueensland’s major sectors over this timeframe.

The success of programs to reduce land clearingcan be seen in the marked reduction in emissionsfrom land use change.

While emissions from land clearing are projected todecline further as a result of recent land clearingrestrictions, these gains are being offset byemissions from stationary energy which havegrown at a rate twice the Australian average.

Factors supporting rapid growth in stationaryenergy emissions include increasing residentialelectricity demand, driven by population growthand an increasing consumer appetite for energy-intensive appliances such as air conditioners(PCCC, 2008a). Also, in recent years around10 per cent of Queensland’s generated electricityhas been exported to southern states. Stationaryenergy overtook land use, land use change andforestry as the biggest contributor to Queenslandemissions around 1999 (DCC, 2009c).

Queensland has the highest per capitaemissions of all Australian states

State Emissions(Mt)

Population(million)

Per capitaemissions

(tonnesCO2-e)

Queensland 181.6 4.18 43.44

New SouthWales

162.7 6.88 23.65

Victoria 119.2 5.20 22.92

WesternAustralia

76.3 2.10 36.33

SouthAustralia

29.5 1.58 18.67

Tasmania 8.5 0.493 17.24

National 597.2 21.01 28.42

Table 3.1: Australia’s per capita greenhouse gasemissions by state in 2007

Source: ABS, 2008b and DCC, 2009c

In 2007, as shown in Table 3.1, Queensland wasresponsible for more greenhouse gas emissionsthan any other state in Australia, and has thehighest per capita emissions of all the states.

Emissions from land clearing remains a key

contributor to Queensland’s high emissionscompared with other states at more than ve timesthe national average. This is despite substantialprogress in reducing emissions from this sectorsince 1990.

Historically high emissions from land clearing hascontributed to Queensland’s per capita emissionssigni cantly exceeding the national average.

Emissions savings from reduced land clearinghave been offset by growth in energy emissions

Figure 3.3: Proportion of Queensland emissionsby sector 1990 and 2007Source: DCC, 2009c

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e m i s s i o n s

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1990 20070

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Land use changeWasteAgriculture

Industrial processesFugitive emissionsTransportStationary energy




3.2.2 Projected emissionsQueensland’s economic growth has exceededthat of the rest of Australia for more than a decade.This growth has occurred on the back of recordlevels of business investment, government provisionof social and economic infrastructure, improvementsin productivity and a rate of population growthdouble that of the national average (OESR, 2008c).For the 2006–07 nancial year, Queensland’seconomic growth strengthened to an eight-year highof 6.8 per cent, well above economic growth of2.5 per cent for the rest of Australia (Queensland

Treasury 2007; The Nous Group & SKM, 2008).Figure 3.4 shows that Queensland’s strongpopulation and economic growth as measured bygross state product (GSP) is projected to continue(The Nous Group & SKM, 2008), based oninformation prior to the global nancial crisis.Population growth will be driven by strong overseasand interstate migration and attractive economicfactors. Queensland’s population is expected togrow by approximately 18 per cent, moving from4.2 million in 2008 to more than 5.1 million in 2020

(OESR, 2008c).

Economic growth will, in turn, be driven by acombination of the state’s strong populationgrowth and continued international demand forits mineral resources.

Population and economic growth havehistorically been signi cant drivers in energy,fugitive emissions, industrial processes andtransport-related greenhouse gas emissions growth(The Nous Group & SKM, 2008). Annual sectoralgreenhouse gas emission, population and economicgrowth rates in Queensland for the period 1991–2006 are closely correlated.

The primary reasons for this correlation are thestate’s reliance on fossil fuels for its energy needs,including electricity generation and transport fuels;a large mining and minerals processing sectorcontributing to industrial processing and fugitiveemissions; and a vastly dispersed populationbase requiring expansive transport and energy-related infrastructure.




GSP, population growth and greenhouse gas emissions are correlated

Figure 3.4: Queensland Gross State Product (GSP) and population forecast compared to greenhousegas emissions (based on information prior to the current global nancial crisis)Source: The Nous Group & SKM, 2008

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From 2007–2050, in the absence of any additionalsigni cant abatement initiatives, Queensland’sgreenhouse gas emissions are expected to grow byapproximately 36 per cent. Emissions fromindustrial processes will almost triple, and energy,transport and agricultural emissions will grow by atleast 50 per cent. The projected change inemissions over time from these sectors is shown inFigure 3.5.

In 2007, Queensland’s emissions were estimatedto be almost 182 Mt of CO 2-e. The state’sgreenhouse gas emissions have been projected toreach nearly 250 Mt of CO 2-e in 2050.

In spite of continued ef ciency gains in industryand transport, there is still expected to besubstantial growth in Queensland’s CO 2-eemissions. Other notable observations aboutQueensland’s emissions projections by sector aresummarised in the sectoral chapters.

Projected strong long term economic andpopulation growth will make emissions reductionsin most sectors of the Queensland economy dif cultinto the future.

For example, the Commonwealth’s proposedRenewable Energy Target of 20 per cent by 2020might be expected to reduce emissions related toelectricity generation in Queensland by around20 per cent. However, these emissions savingswould be offset by the 18 per cent growth expectedin population over the same period.


3.3 The magnitudeof the challenge for

QueenslandIn the absence of signi cant greenhouse mitigationactions, Queensland’s greenhouse gas emissionswill continue to increase.

To establish a baseline for quantifying andcomparing Queensland’s potential emissionabatement opportunities, a ‘business as usual’emissions pro le to 2050 has been developed. Thepro le presented in Figure 3.5 has been prepared byThe Nous Group and Sinclair Knight Mertz (SKM). Itconsiders all current Queensland policy initiatives,including programs under the ClimateSmart 2050:Queensland climate change strategy 2007 .

The yellow line indicates 2000 emissions; the blueline denotes the national target of 60 per centreduction below 2000 levels by 2050 applied toQueensland’s emissions.

Improvements in ef ciency or changes in productionmethodology have been considered to the extentthat they can be reasonably forecast.

Queensland’s emissions are projected to reachalmost 250 Mt by 2050 under business-as-usual

Figure 3.5: Queensland’s projected emissionspro le under a business-as-usual scenarioSource: The Nous Group & SKM, 2008

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Waste

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The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to rise at•an alarming rate.

Queensland’s climate is changing in response to these rising levels of•greenhouse gases.

The changes in global and regional climates are expected to continue, with signi cant•changes projected in the future.

As a consequence of climate change, the number of hot days is increasing and the•number of cold days is decreasing.

Sea-levels are projected to continue to rise.•

4.Observed and projectedclimate change




4.1 Global climatechangeIncreases in global surface temperatures and theretreat of glaciers and ice sheets indicate theclimate is changing. Evidence of human-inducedchanges in the global climate reported by the IPCC(2007c), Garnaut (2008b) and others, demonstratethe need to respond to and reverse the ever-increasing level of greenhouse gases inthe atmosphere.

Levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) have been measureddirectly over the last 50 years. Carbon dioxideemissions are currently tracking above the highestIPCC emissions scenario (A1FI). The global CO 2

concentration is shown in Figure 4.1.The emission of other greenhouse gases such asnitrous oxide and methane are similarly on the rise.

There is a high level of certainty that emissions willcontinue to rise. Because of the complexity of theclimate system, there is considerable uncertaintyregarding how any particular climate variable willrespond to long-term increases in risinggreenhouse gases, particularly at regional levels.Therefore, it is important to establish a hierarchy ofcertainty based on the observations to date andthe knowledge of the climate system that has beencaptured in the global climate models.

4.1.1 Global temperatureresponseGlobally averaged surface temperatures have risenmarkedly since measurements commenced in themid-1800s (Garnaut, 2008b). In particular, a strongwarming trend has been observed in global meantemperature since the mid-1970s. The decade1998–2007 has been the warmest so far (Figure 4.2).It is now 23 years since the world has experienceda cooler than average year (BoM, 2009).

The blue and red colours in Figure 4.2 correspondto annual temperatures less than and greater thanthe 1961–1990 average, respectively. The greaternumber of red bars at the right of the graphindicates that recent years have been considerablywarmer than the rst half of the last century.

Figure 4.1: The observed and projectedconcentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Theprojections for the highest (A1FI) and lowest (B1)SRES scenarios are shown.

Source: QCCCE based on IPCC, 2001a and Tans, 2008

Global concentration of CO 2 is increasing

Figure 4.2: Time-series (1850–2007) of annualglobal mean surface temperature anomalies(bars).The black line indicates the running 11-year average. Anomalies are calculated relative to the 30-year averagefrom 1961 to 1990Source: BoM, 2008b

Global average temperature has risen




One of the most important conclusions of theIPCC’s AR4 was that observed global climatechange, including warming of the climate system,is now unequivocal (IPCC, 2007c). It is almostcertain that long term increases in globaltemperature will continue with rising greenhousegas concentrations.

Notably, the IPCC found that eleven of the twelveyears between 1995 and 2006 rank among thetwelve warmest years on record. Over the 100 yearsfrom 1906 to 2005, globally averaged surfacetemperature rose by 0.74 °C (IPCC, 2007c). Over thesame timeframe, global sea levels rose byapproximately 17 cm (Garnaut, 2008b).

The IPCC’s AR4 concluded that “most of theobserved increase in globally averagedtemperatures since the mid-20th century is verylikely due to the observed increase inanthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”Consequently, continued emissions of greenhousegases, at or above the current rate, will causefurther warming and induce many changes in theglobal climate system (IPCC, 2007c).

4.1.2 Emissions scenarios and

climate change projectionsAs understanding of the main demographic,technological and economic forces driving futureemissions improves, the IPCC periodically developsnew emissions scenarios. The most widely used setof scenarios is known as the Special Report on

Emissions Scenarios (SRES 2001). These scenariosdescribe how the future may change based ona range of projected concentrations of greenhousegases in the atmosphere. SRES 2001 scenarios areused in the climate change projections describedby IPCC (2001b).

The 2008 Garnaut Review observed that actualemissions between 2000 and 2005 were higherthan the existing range of SRES scenarios.The Garnaut Review developed an updatedemissions scenario based on the most recentInternational Energy Agency projections. Thisscenario’s projected emissions correlatemost closely with the IPCC high (A1FI)emissions scenario.

The climate projections presented in this chapterare the best estimate (median) values, anduncertainties are represented by the values at thelower (10th percentile) and higher (90th percentile)range projected by the 23 IPCC Global ClimateModels. These projections are based on thelow (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) SRESemissions scenarios.

Low-range scenarios assume a rapid shift toless fossil fuel-intensive industries. Mid-range

scenarios assume a balanced use of differentenergy sources. The high-range scenarios assumestrong economic growth based on a continueddependence on fossil fuels. However, the climatevaries naturally from decade to decade and thisvariability compounds the uncertainty ofthe projections.






Most capital cities in Australia and parts ofAustralia’s most productive food-growing regions,such as the Murray Darling Basin, haveexperienced declines in rainfall. A signi cantdecline in the frequency of extreme rainfall eventshas been observed along Australia’s east coast.However, the proportion of total rain falling asextreme events has increased slightly.

While these trends are due in part to the naturalvariability of the global climate system, inparticular the uctuations in the frequency ofEl Niño and La Niña events, anthropogenicin uences are also contributing factors (IOCI, 2005;NRW, 2007; Murphy and Timbal, 2008; Rotstaynet al, 2008; Smith, 2004; Timbal et al, 2007).

Drought is a feature of Australia’s climate, howeverthe recent drought in south-eastern Australia is oneof the country’s most severe on record (BoM,

2008a). In terms of rainfall de ciencies, thisdrought is comparable only with the Federation

drought (1898–1903), and the 1939–1946 drought.The Federation drought was previously the worstdrought on record.

The recent drought was compounded by recordhigh temperatures. As a result of global warming,droughts in Australia are likely to be more severe—not only due to rising temperature, but also due toincreased evaporation (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).

4.2.3 Climate changeprojectionsThe Climate Change in Australia report (CSIRO &BoM, 2007) describes climate change projectionsfor Australia for various emissions scenarios and

over various time periods. These projections showchanges in average climate for three future 30-yearperiods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.

The Garnaut Review builds on these projections byextending the modelling and presents results outto 2100.

The projections in the Climate Change in Australiareport are based on the results of climatemodelling undertaken as part of the IPCC AR4.In summary, projections for Australia this century

include (CSIRO & BoM, 2007):Higher temperatures:• annual mean temperatureincreases by 0.8 °C to 1.8 °C by 2050 under alow emissions scenario and increases by 1.5 °Cto 2.8 °C for a high emissions scenario.By 2070, projected temperature increases by1.0 °C to 2.5 °C under a low emissions scenarioand by 2.2 °C to 5.0 °C for the highemissions scenario.

Less rainfall• : there is a considerable range inrainfall projections, with some models

projecting increases and some decreases.The best estimates (median) from the modelsshow little change in northern Australia and atendency towards a decrease across the rest ofthe country for 2050 and 2070 for the lowemissions scenario. These changes are largerfor the higher emissions scenarios.

The report also describes:Drought• : up to 40 per cent increase in thenumber of drought months by 2070 ineastern Australia.

Fire danger • : increase in re weather risk due towarmer and drier conditions.

Figure 4.5: Trends in annual rainfall (expressedas millimetres per 10 years) for (a) 1900–2007and (b) 1950–2007Source: BoM, 2008b

Large areas of Australia’s east coast havereceived less rainfall

(b)

(a)




these small scale processes and therefore there isa range of rainfall projections produced.

4.3.1 Temperature

Historical temperaturesA trend of rising temperatures has been observedin Queensland over recent decades. Figure 4.6

shows that four of the state’s seven hottest yearson record have occurred since 2002—the hottestbeing 2005.

Figure 4.6: Time-series (1910–2007) ofQueensland’s annual mean surface temperatureanomalies (bars).The black line indicates the running 11-year average.

Anomolies are calculated relative to the 30-year averagefrom 1961–1990.Source: BoM, 2008b

Queensland’s average temperature has risen

Sea level rise• : rise in global mean sea level of18–59 cm by 2100 (with a possible additionalcontribution from melting ice sheets of10–20cm ).

Storm surges• : potential for signi cant increasesin inundation due to higher mean sea level andmore intense weather systems.

Severe weather • : increase in tropical cyclone

intensity in the Australian region, and anincrease in hail risk over the south east coastof Australia extending as far north as south-east Queensland.

4.3 Queensland’sclimateQueensland’s future climate will be a function of

both human-induced climate change and naturalvariability. In some decades natural variability willreinforce climate change, while in others it willoffset the change to some extent (Garnaut, 2008b).While Queensland’s climate is naturally variable,climate change will pose new risks beyondhistorical climate variability.

While Queensland’s mean temperature is expectedto increase by about 1 °C by 2030 and about 2 °Cby 2070 under the low emissions scenario, there isgreater uncertainty regarding rainfall projections.

Rainfall projections depend on the ability of themodels to represent small scale processes, such ascloud formation. The models are very sensitive to




Annual mean temperatures since 1950 haveincreased across northern Queensland. Annualmaximum temperatures and annual minimumtemperatures have also increased, as shown inFigure 4.7.

Across the state, minimum temperatures havegenerally increased more rapidly than maximumtemperatures (Figure 4.7). The area showing thegreatest increases in minimum temperature wasinland Queensland, with changes of more than 2 °Cover the period from 1950–2007.

Temperature projectionsProjected global average temperatures acrossdifferent greenhouse gas emissions scenariosshow little variation up to 2030. This is also the

case for Queensland’s average temperature.Therefore, only a mid-range emissions scenario hasbeen used for 2030 (as discussed in Chapter 5).After 2030, climate change projections areincreasingly dependent on the level of emissions,so both low and high emissions scenarios are usedfor 2050 and 2070.

Projected changes in annual mean temperaturesare presented for 2050 and 2070 for low and highfuture emissions scenarios in Figure 4.8 andFigure 4.9 respectively.

By 2050, the best estimate of warming for the lowemissions scenario ranges from +0.8 °C in the farnorth to +1.4 °C over inland regions. For the highemissions scenarios, the range is from +1.4 °C inthe far north to +2.4° C over inland regions(Figure 4.8).

By 2070, the best estimate of warming for the lowemissions scenario ranges from +1.4 °C in the farnorth to +2.2 °C over inland regions. For the highemissions scenarios, the range is from +2.8 °C inthe far north to +3.6° C over inland regions(Figure 4.9).

Taking the 2070 ‘best estimate’ based on the highemissions scenario of a 3.6 °C increase and applyingit to the current 32 °C mean summer temperature thatoccurs in the south-west inland could result in a meantemperature rise to 35.6 °C. It is important tounderstand this is a long-term average and there willbe years where the annual value is well in excessof this.

Figure 4.7: Trend in Queensland annual averagetemperature 1950–2007 (expressed as °C per10 years)*Source: QCCCE (using BoM 2008b data) 1

* The trends are slightly different to Figure 4.4 because of theapplication of a different interpolation methodology.

Temperatures have risen across large areasof Queensland




4.3.2 RainfallAnnual and seasonal rainfall across Queensland isshown in Figure 4.10. Conditions vary from the WetTropics in the north, with some areas experiencingup to 4000 mm of rain a year, to semi-desertregions in the south-west, where only 150 mmrainfall typically falls in a year.

Rainfall in Queensland generally occurs during thesummer months. Monsoon conditions prevail inthe north; with occasional tropical cyclones,together with weather disturbances such as

tropical 30 to 60 day oscillations (or “Madden–Julian events”) and local thunderstorms.

Figure 4.8: Best estimate (50th percentile) ofprojected change in annual and seasonal meantemperatures (°C) by 2050 for the low (B1 - leftcolumn) and high (A1FI - right column)emissions scenariosSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO high quality dataset 2007)

Temperatures are projected to increase by1.4 °C to 2.4 °C by 2050 under a highemissions scenario

Figure 4.9: Best estimate (50th percentile) ofprojected change in annual and seasonal meantemperatures (°C) by 2070 for the low (B1 - leftcolumn) and high (A1FI - right column)emissions scenariosSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO high quality dataset 2007)

Temperatures are projected to increase by2.8 °C to 3.6 °C by 2070 under a highemissions scenario




Historical rainfallA state-wide average annual rainfall time series isshown in Figure 4.11. This graph needs carefulinterpretation as it masks regional rainfallvariability. With this caveat in mind,Figure 4.11 illustrates:

The period 1973–1979 is unique as it•corresponds to seven consecutive above-average rainfall years.

While there is no evidence from Figure 4.11 of a•long-term trend in the state-wide average, theperiod from 2001–2006 is noteworthy, as itcorresponds to six consecutive below averageyears, which has not occurred since theFederation drought (1898–1903). It is importantto note that El Niño conditions, typicallyassociated with below average rainfall inQueensland, prevailed for most of this period.

Coastal Queensland has experienced a generaldecline in rainfall over the period 1950–2007, withsome areas of the central coast experiencingdecreases of about 50 mm or more per decade

(Figure 4.12).

Over the period 1950 to 2007, annual and summerrainfall in the far west and far north of Queenslandincreased, while the remainder of the stateexperienced a drying trend (Figure 4.12).Over the same period, winter rainfall has showna pronounced decline in south-east Queensland,while autumn rainfall has been declining overmost of the state.

Figure 4.10: Long-term average annual andseasonal Queensland rainfall for 1910–2007(left column) and 1950–2007 (right column)(expressed as mm per day)Source: BoM, 2008b

Rainfall varies across Queensland

Figure 4.11: Time-series (1900–2007) ofQueensland’s annual rainfall anomalies (bar).The black line indicates the running 11-year average. Anomalies are calculated relative to the 30-year averagefrom 1961–1990.Source: BoM, 2008b 1

2001–2006 were the driest consecutive yearssince the Federation Drought (1898–1903)




Rainfall projectionsThere is signi cant uncertainty associated withrainfall projections for Queensland under futureclimate change scenarios. For example by 2050, theprojected annual rainfall changes range from close tozero in the far north, to as much as a 10 per centdecline in the south (Figure 4.13). By 2070, theprojected changes range from a 1 per cent decreasein the far north to as much as a 25 per centdecrease in the south in the spring (Figure 4.14).

In addition to projected changes to the averagerainfall over time, the frequency of wet days willdecrease and the frequency of dry days will

increase (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).

In the north of the state, extreme rainfall events areprojected to increase in all seasons, with the

largest increase in the far north in autumn(six per cent increase). Along the southernQueensland coast, the projected changes inextreme precipitation are small (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).

Figure 4.12: Linear trends for annual andseasonal values of Queensland rainfall for1910–2007 (left column) and 1950–2007(right column) (expressed as percentage ofmean rainfall per decade)Source: BoM, 2008b

Rainfall has decreased across large areas ofQueensland

Figure 4.13: Best estimate (50th percentile) ofprojected change in annual and seasonalrainfall (%) by 2050 for the low (B1 - left column)and high (A1FI - right column) emissionsscenariosSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO high quality dataset 2007)

Rainfall is projected to decline up to 10 per centby 2050 under the in uence of climate change




4.3.3 Evaporation

Evaporation and how it may change in the future isimportant for understanding the impacts on futurewater availability for plant growth and water storage.

Historical evaporationThe average evaporation (de ned as potentialevaporation measured by Class-A pan) acrossQueensland ranges from 2–3 mm a day in thesouth-east in winter to more than 10 mm a day inthe south-west in summer (Figure 4.15). This rangere ects not only the variation in temperature, but

also the variation in humidity and solar radiation inthe coastal regions compared to the western areas.

Evaporation is increasing over most of the state,except for a band extending from the north-west tothe north-east (Figure 4.16).

Increasing evaporation has exacerbated droughtconditions experienced over the last two decades inQueensland. As evaporation occurs on a daily basisand rainfall is episodic, increases in the evaporativepower of the atmosphere will more quickly diminishthe water available in the soil, even though rainfall

may only decline by a small amount.

Figure 4.14: Best estimate (50th percentile) ofprojected change in annual and seasonal rainfall(%) by 2070 for the low (B1 - left column) andhigh (A1FI - right column) emissions scenariosSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO high quality dataset 2007)

Rainfall is projected to decline up to 25 per centby 2070 under the in uence of climate change

Figure 4.15: Long-term average annual andseasonal pan evaporation for Queensland for1975–2007 (expressed as mm per day)Source: QCCCE (using SILO 2008 data)

Current average evaporation across Queenslandranges from 2–3 mm in the east to more than10 mm in the west

Figure 4.16: Linear trends for annual andseasonal values of pan evaporation for 1975–2007 for Queensland (expressed as percentageof mean evaporation per decade)Source: QCCCE (using SILO 2008 data)

Evaporation has increased over wide areasof Queensland




Projected evaporation

By 2050 (Figure 4.17), the projected increase inannual average evaporation (de ned as potentialevapo-transpiration) is typically from 2 to 5 per centfor the low emissions scenario and from 4 to8 per cent for the high emissions scenario. On aseasonal basis, the changes are similar to annualvalues. The greatest increases are in winter in thesouth-east part of the state, with similarly largeincreases in autumn along most of thecoastal region.

By 2070, (Figure 4.18), the projected increase istypically from 3 to 6 per cent for the low emissionsscenario and from 7 to 12 per cent for the highemissions scenario.

Figure 4.18: Best estimate (50th percentile) ofprojected change in annual and seasonalpotential evapo-transpiration (%) by 2070 forthe low (B1 - left column) and high (A1FI - rightcolumn) emissions scenariosSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO high quality dataset 2007)

By 2070 evaporation is projected to increase byup to 13 per cent

Figure 4.17: Best estimate (50th percentile) ofprojected change in annual and seasonalpotential evapo-transpiration (%) by 2050 forthe low (B1 - left column) and high (A1FI - rightcolumn) emissions scenariosSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO high quality dataset 2007)

By 2050 evaporation is projected to increase byup to 10 per cent




4.3.4 DroughtThe impacts of drought on water supplies inQueensland have been exacerbated in recent yearsdue to increased demand and competition forwater. In addition, lower rainfall, land clearing andrising temperatures are all signi cant factors thatcontribute to the impact of drought in Queensland.

In south-east Queensland, the recent drought (upto the end of 2008) was the worst on record for thecatchments to the west of Brisbane, including theWivenhoe, Somerset and North Pine dams. Thisdrought was more severe and more protracted thanthe Federation drought (1898 to 1903) (Figure 4.19).

4.3.5 Sea-level riseHigher sea-levels, together with storm surges andtides, can have devastating impacts on coastaldevelopments, infrastructure and communities.

According to the IPCC, global sea-level is projectedto rise by 18 to 59 cm by 2100, with a possibleadditional contribution from melting ice sheets of10 to 20 cm (IPCC, 2007c). Garnaut reports recentscienti c work which suggests that future sea-levelrise could be higher than that projected by theIPCC, and uncontrolled climate change could resultin global sea-level rise of up to 1.4 m by 2100(Garnaut, 2008b; Rahmstorf, 2007).

The Climate Change in Australia Report(CSIRO & BoM, 2007), describes regional variationsin sea-level rise, which shows higher sea-level riseon the east coast of Australia compared with theglobal average.

Figure 4.19: A comparison of the recent drought(2001–2008) episode in south-east Queenslandwith that of the Federation Drought (1898–1903)The two lines represent the accumulated rainfall de citsfrom April 1898 and April 2001Source: DNRW, 2007

The recent drought in south-east Queensland isworse than the Federation Drought






Climate change is impacting Queensland’s regions in different ways. Early planning is•necessary to assist regional Queensland to become more resilient to climate change.

Regional climate change summaries with climate change projections are presented for•thirteen Queensland regions.

The climate change summaries indicate south-east Queensland could face major•challenges as a result of drier and warmer conditions.

Coastal regions could face challenges due to a rise in sea-level combined with increased•coastal development and rapid population growth.

In far north Queensland there is likely to be more intense rainfall events, particularly in•

summer, with possibly fewer but more intense tropical cyclones.

5.Climate change impacts onQueensland’s regions




5.1 Climate Change inQueensland: a regional

perspectiveThe impact of climate change on local climateconditions will vary across the state. It is thereforeimportant for climate-dependant industries, such astourism and agriculture, to understand the regionalspeci c impacts of climate change to enable them tobuild resilience to these future changes.

Due to its large size and decentralised population,the state is divided into regions for statistical andadministrative purposes. The QueenslandGovernment, with input from CSIRO, has undertakena detailed analysis of climate change projections forthe thirteen Queensland regions shown in Figure 5.1.

Each region of Queensland varies somewhat in termsof its climate, economy, population, geography, oraand fauna. Appendix 3 provides detailed summariesof the historic and projected physical climate changeimpacts for each of the thirteen regions. This chapterpresents a synopsis of these impacts.

5.2 TemperatureFigure 5.2 shows the historical average temperaturefor each region, with the ‘best estimate’ projectedchanges at 2070 for a high emissions scenario.

As shown in Figure 5.2, the greatest increases inannual average temperatures are projected to beup to 3.5 °C in the south-west, central-west,north-west and Maranoa regions. An increase ofaround 3 °C is projected for central Queensland,eastern Downs, the Gulf, Townsville-Thuringowa,Whitsunday and Wide Bay-Burnett regions.

For the remaining regions (Cape York, far north andsouth-east Queensland) the projected annual averagetemperature increases are from 2.5 °C to 3 °C.

The impact of these changes on any region can beseen by comparing the projections with the currentaverage climate for other regions. For example, theprojected changes will result in the eastern Downshaving a similar temperature to that currentlyexperienced in central Queensland.

I

Central WestQueensland

Gulf Region

Cape York

South WestQueensland

North WestQueensland

CentralQueensland

Maranoaand District

SouthEastQld

Townsville-Thuringowa

Far NorthQueensland

Wide Bay-Burnett

EasternDowns

Whitsunday,Hinterland

and Mackay

Figure 5.1: Queensland regions

Regional climate change impacts, have beendeveloped for 13 regions

Projections show a rise in annual temperatures

across Queensland

I

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

A n n u a

l A v e r a g e

T e m p e r a t u r e

( ° C ) 2070 high emissions scenario;

50 percentile projection

1971–2000 avera ge

E a s t e r n D o w n s

S o u t h E a s t Q u e e n s l a n d

M a r a n o a a

n d D i s t r i c t

W i d e B a y - B u r n e t t

C e n t r a l Q u e e n s l a n d

S o u t h W e s t Q u e e n s l a n d

W h i t s u n d a y - M

a c k a y

T o w n s v i l l e - T h u r i n g o w a

C e n t r a l W e s t Q u e e n s l a n d

F a r N o r t h Q u e e n s l a n d

N o r t h W e s t Q u e e n s l a n d

C a p e Y o r k

G u l f R e g i o n

Region

Figure 5.2: Annual average temperature(1971–2000), with the ‘best estimate’ projected

changes by 2070 for a high emissions scenarioSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO and BoM 2008b data)




5.2.2 RainfallFigure 5.3 shows the historical average rainfall foreach region, with projected changes at 2070 fora high emissions scenario.

For all the regions, the changes in rainfall over theprevious 30 years are consistent with naturalvariability experienced over the last 110 years,which makes it dif cult to detect any in uence ofglobal warming at this stage.

The ‘best estimate’ rainfall projections showa decrease in annual rainfall in all regions.Figure 5.3 shows a reduction of 1 and 2 per cent forthe Cape York and Gulf regions respectively, and

between 3 and 8 per cent for the north-west,Townsville-Thuringowa and south-east regions.The remaining regions are projected to experiencea reduction of around 10 per cent.

In actual terms, the best estimate of projected totalannual rainfall shows a decrease of around 15 mmin Cape York and the Gulf. The largest decrease oftotal annual rainfall is projected for south-eastQueensland at 91 mm.

5.2.1 Temperature extremesClimate change projections show an increase inthe frequency of extreme high temperatures in allregions. One measure of this is the number ofdays over 35 °C that can be expected each year(see Table 5.1), which is an indicator of heatstress for human health, animals, as well asbiological ecosystems.

Increases in the number of hot days can potentiallyhave a major impact on Queensland communitiesand climate-sensitive industries. For example, theimpacts on agriculture will range from heat stresson animals through to irrigation systems strugglingto keep up with crop water demand.

The number of hot days per year across allregions is projected to rise

189102118868255(125–263)(85–136)(91–162)(76–105)(74–92)

Weipa

401216874(19–91)(7–21)(9–31)(6–13)(6–9)

Townsville

14712012611210891(127–172)(109–135)(113–142)(104–123)(101–117)

Thargomindah

1167543Tewantin(7–20)(5–8)(5–10)(4–6)(4–6)

1168491757153(90–151)(72–101)(76–112)(65–87)(64–81)

St George

643640292616(42–100)(27–47)(31–58)(24–36)(22–33)

Rockhampton

224185192174168144 (195–254)(170–203)(175–216)(163–188)(160–182)Richmond

21014215513611397(175–266)(126–175)(136–191)(113–142)(112–136)

Palmerville

935765504631(66–127)(46–76)(50–86)(44–60)(42–56)

Miles

1223111(4–32)(1–5)(2–8)(1–3)(1–2)

Mackay

185149156138133112Longreach(158–213)(135–166)(140–179)(129–152)(126–144)

814854413523(58–121)(38–64)(42–74)(34–51)(32–44)

Gayndah

1368998797450(104–169)(77–109)(81–124)(68–91)(65–84)

Charters Towers

13099106898464(107–162)(85–116)(90–126)(80–103)(77–95)

Charleville

229193204183180156(205–257)(181–213)(185–224)(171–195)(168–190)

Camooweal

341013764(14–76)(7–18)(8–26)(5–11)(5–8)

Cairns

222163175148138102(182–266)(145–191)(151–207)(130–165)(127–154)

Burketown

1245321(5–33)(2–6)(3–9)(2–4)(2–3)

Bundaberg

633221(6–15)(2–4)(2–5)(2–3)(1–2)

Brisbane Aero

194166172157153130(174–219)(154–180)(157–189)(147–168)(144–162)

Boulia

178152158144141125(160–202)(142–165)(145–173)(137–154)(135–149)

Birdsville

16312513411511087(136–192)(112–145)(116–156)(103–129)(100–121)

Barcaldine

412326201812(28–65)(19–31)(20–36)(16–24)(15–21)

Amberley

Station Name Current 2030Mid

2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 5.1: Number of projected days per yearabove 35 °C for a range of emissions scenarios

in regional centres. Current number of dayscalculated using a base period of 1971–2000.Source: QCCCE ( using CSIRO high quality dataset 2007)

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0

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l T o t a

l R a

i n f a l l ( m m

)

C e n t r a l W e s t Q u e e n s l a n d

S o u t h W e s t Q u e e n s l a n d

N o r t h W e s t Q u e e n s l a n d

M a r a n o a a

n d D i s t r i c t

C e n t r a l Q u e e n s l a n d

E a s t e r n D o w n s

T o w n s v i l l e - T h u r i n g o w a

W h i t s u n d a y - M

a c k a y

G u l f R e g i o n

W i d e B a y - B u r n e t t

S o u t h E a s t Q u e e n s l a n d

F a r N o r t h Q u e e n s l a n d

C a p e Y o r k

Region

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

20001971–2000 average

2070 high emissions scenario;50 percentile projection

Range of projections – 2070

Figure 5.3: Annual total rainfall (1971–2000)with the ‘best estimate’ projected changes

and range of changes by 2070 for a highemissions scenarioSource: QCCCE (using CSIRO and BoM 2008b data)

Projections show a decrease in annual rainfall in

all regions (best estimate)




Unlike temperature projections, the projectedrainfall changes are highly uncertain, with somemodels showing increases and some decreases.To illustrate this uncertainty, Figure 5.3 includesthe range (within the 10 th and 90 th percentiles) ofprojections for each region.

5.3 Summaryof regional impacts

5.3.1 Wide-Bay BurnettTemperature

Average annual temperature has increased•

0.4 °C over the last decade (from 20.5 °Cto 20.9 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.1 °C•

by 2070; leading to annual temperatures wellbeyond those experienced over the last50 years.

By 2070, Bundaberg may have 12 times the•

number of days over 35 °C (increasing from anaverage of one per year, to an average of12 per year by 2070), while Gayndah may havemore than triple (increasing from an averageof 23 per year, to an average of 81 per yearby 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell•

nearly 12 per cent compared with the previous30 years. This is generally consistent withnatural variability experienced over the last

110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect anyin uence of climate change at this stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall•

changes from an annual increase of 16 per centto a decrease of 33 per cent by 2070. The ‘bestestimate’ of projected rainfall change showsa decrease under all emissions scenarios.

EvaporationProjections indicate annual potential•

evaporation could increase 7–16 per centby 2070.

Photo: Tourism Queensland





5.3.3 Central West Queensland

TemperatureAverage annual temperature has increased•0.7 °C over the last decade (from 23.6 °Cto 24.3 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 5.2 °C•by 2070, leading to annual temperatures wellbeyond those experienced over the last50 years.

By 2070, Birdsville may have almost one and•a half times the number of days over 35 °C(increasing from an average of 125 per year to178 per year by 2070), similarly for Boulia(increasing from an average of 130 per year toan average of 194 per year by 2070) andLongreach (increasing from an average of 112per year to an average of 185 per year by 2070).

Rainfall Average annual rainfall in the last decade fell•by almost nine per cent compared with theprevious 30 years. This is generally consistent

with natural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect anyin uence of climate change at this stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall•changes from an annual increase of 22 per centto a decrease of 37 per cent by 2070. The ‘bestestimate’ of projected rainfall change showsa decrease under all emissions scenarios.



5.3.2 Central Queensland



By 2070, Rockhampton may have four times the•number of days over 35 °C (increasing from anaverage of 16 per year to an average of64 per year by 2070), while Barcaldine mayhave nearly twice the number of hot days(increasing from an average of 87 per yearto an average of 163 per year by 2070).

Rainfall Average annual rainfall in the last decade fell by•nearly 14 per cent compared with the previous30 years. This is generally consistent withnatural variability experienced over the last



EvaporationProjections indicate annual potential•evaporation could increase 7–15 per cent

by 2070.

Photo: Tourism Queensland Photo: Tourism Queensland




5.3.4 Cape York

TemperatureThere has been minimal change in the average•annual temperature over the last decade(from 26.5 °C to 26.4 °C).


By 2070, Weipa may have more than three•times the number of days over 35 °C (increasingfrom an average of 55 per year to an average of189 per year by 2070) and Palmerville may havemore than double the number of days over35 °C (increasing from an average of 97 per yearto an average of 210 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade•remained stationary compared to the previous30 years.


EvaporationProjections indicate potential evaporation could•increase 7–14 per cent by 2070.

5.3.5 Eastern Downs


Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.5 °C•by 2070 leading to annual temperatures wellbeyond those experienced over the last50 years.

By 2070, Miles may have three times the•number of days over 35 °C (increasing from anaverage of 31 per year to an average of93 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell•nearly 12 per cent compared with the previous30 years. This is generally consistent withnatural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect anyin uence of climate change at this stage.


EvaporationProjections indicate annual potential•evaporation could increase 7–15 per centby 2070.





5.3.6 Far North Queensland

TemperatureThere has been minimal change in the average•annual temperature over the last decade (from24.4 °C to 24.5 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 3.9 °C•by 2070, leading to annual temperatureswell beyond those experienced over thelast 50 years.

By 2070, Cairns may have more than eight times•the number of days over 35 °C (increasing froman average of four per year to an average of34 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by•more than two per cent compared to theprevious 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect anyin uence of climate change at this stage.



5.3.7 Gulf Region


Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.4 °C•by 2070, leading to annual temperatureswell beyond those experienced over thelast 50 years.

By 2070, Burketown may have more than twice•the number of days over 35 °C (increasing froman average of 102 per year to an average of222 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade•increased by more than 3 per cent compared tothe previous 30 years. This is generallyconsistent with natural variability experiencedover the last 110 years, which makes it dif cultto detect any in uence of climate change at this stage.



Photo: Tourism Queensland Photo: Tourism Queensland




5.3.8 Maranoa and District

TemperatureAverage annual temperature has increased•


Projections indicate an increase of up to 5 °C•

by 2070, leading to annual temperatures wellbeyond those experienced over the last50 years.

By 2070, Miles may have three times the•

number of days over 35 °C (increasing from anaverage of 31 per year to an average of 93 peryear by 2070) and St George may have morethan twice the number of days over 35 °C(increasing from an average of 53 per year to anaverage of 116 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by•

over eight per cent compared with the previous30 years. This is generally consistent withnatural variability experienced over the last

110 years, which makes it dif cult to detectany in uence of climate change at this stage.


Evaporation Projections indicate annual potential•

evaporation could increase 6–15 per cent

by 2070.

5.3.9 North West Queensland





By 2070, Camooweal may have nearly 1.5 times•

the number of hot days over 35 °C (increasingfrom the average of 156 per year to an averageof 229 per year by 2070) and Richmond mayhave over 1.5 times the number of days over35 °C (increasing from the average of 144 peryear to an average of 224 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by•

two per cent compared to the previous thirtyyears. This is generally consistent with naturalvariability experienced over the last 110 years,

which makes it dif cult to detect any in uenceof climate change at this stage.




evaporation could increase 6–14 per cent

by 2070.







5.3.12 Townsville-Thuringowa

TemperatureAverage annual temperature has increased by•0.2 °C over the last decade (from 23.3 °Cto 23.5 °C).


By 2070, Townsville may have ten times the•number of hot days over 35 °C (increasing froman average of four per year to an average of40 per year by 2070) and Charters Towers mayhave more than double (increasing from anaverage of 50 per year to an average of136 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell•more than four per cent compared with theprevious 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last


Models have projected a range of rainfall•impacts from an annual increase of 19 per centto a decrease of 32 per cent by 2070. A decreasein rainfall is projected by the majority of modelsunder all emissions scenarios.

EvaporationProjections indicate annual potential•evaporation could increase 7–15 per cent

by 2070.

5.3.13 Whitsunday, Hinterlandand Mackay





By 2070, Mackay may have 12 times the number•

of days over 35 °C (increasing from an averageof one per year to an average of 12 per year by2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell•

nearly 14 per cent compared with the previous30 years. This is generally consistent withnatural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect anyin uence of climate change at this stage.









Unmitigated climate change will impose greater economic costs on Queensland than on•any other Australian state or territory.

Damage to infrastructure, reduced demand for key export commodities and declining•agricultural production make up the main economic costs of unmitigatedclimate change.

The physical impacts of climate change will affect the industries that rely on•climate-sensitive resources.

In the context of a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the costs of•mitigation are manageable.

By avoiding climate change impacts through mitigation actions, the bene ts far•outweigh the costs.

6.The economic costs of climate change

P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d




6.1 Economicmodelling of climate

change costsClimate change is a serious issue for Queenslandand, if left unmitigated, will result in signi canteconomic costs.

A number of assessments have considered thecosts of climate change mitigation in Australia.These include modelling carried out by theAustralian Bureau of Agricultural and ResourceEconomics (ABARE), the Allen Consulting Groupand CSIRO researchers for the Climate Institute(Ahammad et al, 2006; Allen Consulting Group,2006; Hat eld-Dodds et al, 2007). The modellingundertaken by the Commonwealth Treasury in2008 is the most detailed assessment of theeconomic costs of climate change action to date.

While these assessments focused only on the costsof taking mitigation action, the Garnaut Review wasthe rst comprehensive Australian assessment ofthe economic costs of both unmitigated climatechange and mitigation action. This provided, for

the rst time, a complete picture of the potentialeconomic costs of the decisions Australia makes inits response to climate change.

Economic modelling of climate change and climatechange mitigation policy over long time periodsinvolves many uncertainties and requires a rangeof assumptions. As Professor Garnaut noted, theresults of the Garnaut Review’s modelling effortsshould be considered illustrative of the broadmagnitude of costs of unmitigated climate changeand the bene ts and costs that might be

experienced if the world was to collectively act tomitigate climate change.

There is, however, a risk that temperature rises—andtherefore climate change impacts—will be muchhigher than anticipated, because of unforeseenfeedback effects. For example, temperatureincreases above certain thresholds could trigger therelease of much greater volumes of greenhousegases from carbon and methane stores on earth andin the oceans, resulting in further temperatureincreases and greater impacts on human civilisationand ecosystems. These potential impacts are highlyuncertain and have not been modelled.

The costs of mitigation action to meet nationalemissions reduction targets will also depend ona number of factors (Garnaut, 2008), including:

The economic growth outlook.•

The cost-effectiveness of the instruments•chosen to achieve the reductions (such asemissions trading).

The international context.•

Market prices of key resources such as•petroleum, coal and natural gas.

The technologies that are, or will become•available, to reduce emissions.

The estimated costs of climate change andmitigation actions on Australia and Queensland aregenerally expressed in terms of broad changes toGross Domestic Product (GDP) or Gross NationalProduct (GNP), Gross State Product (GSP), realhousehold consumption, real wages and exportvolumes. These are compared with a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario (i.e. no additional mitigationaction) and a reference scenario of a world withoutclimate change.

The Commonwealth Treasury (and Garnaut)modelling were undertaken prior to the current

global economic downturn. However, theCommonwealth has advised that the Treasurymodelling focuses on the medium to long termtransformation of the Australian economy. Market

uctuations, such as the current global nancialcrisis, will not materially affect the analysis(Commonwealth Treasury, 2009).

6.2 The economiccosts of unmitigatedclimate changeIn the ‘business as usual’ scenario modelled by theGarnaut Review, atmospheric concentrations ofgreenhouse gases are projected to reach 1600parts per million (ppm) by 2100, resulting in globaltemperature rises of 5.1–6.6°C.

The Garnaut Review noted recent internationalmodelling that global GDP could fall by around

8 per cent by 2100 as a result of climate change.In turn, the costs of unmitigated climate changeto Australia could involve an approximate fall of




7.5 per cent in real GNP and an approximate9.4 per cent reduction in real wages by 2100(Garnaut, 2008b).

Figure 6.1 shows these projected impacts ofunmitigated climate change on Australia’s real GDPand GNP, consumption and wages up to 2100,compared with a world without climate change.

The costs of unmitigated climate change are clearlysigni cant and, as Figure 6.1 illustrates, they increasemore rapidly in the second half of the century.

It is important to note that these modelled costsonly included easily measured climate changeimpacts and the total impacts of climate changeare likely to be even higher. The Garnaut Reviewsuggested that other costs such as changes tobuilding codes and planning schemes, and thetemperature impacts on sheries and forestryproduction could contribute an additional30 per cent to the economic costs of unmitigatedclimate change.

Economic costs to QueenslandDue to Queensland’s high vulnerability to climatechange impacts, the economic costs to Queensland

of unmitigated climate change were forecast to beproportionally greater. As shown in Figure 6.2, thenegative impact on GSP in Queensland is the most ofall states and territories.

Measuring the market impacts of climate changeMany of the costs of climate change impacts, and the bene ts of avoiding these impacts,

are dif cult to measure.The Garnaut Review modelling (prior to the current global economic downturn) included changes to worlddemand and prices for export commodities, changes to agricultural production, and costs of damage toinfrastructure and productivity.

Other expected market costs for each scenario were considered to be too unreliable to be included inthe modelling, but were estimated based on judgements about the magnitude of climate change impacts.These included changes to building codes and planning schemes, and the temperature impacts on

sheries and forestry production.

Other ‘non-market’ costs such as environmental degradation and loss of amenity have not beenestimated in the Garnaut Review’s assessment, but will clearly have signi cant costs. These costs

include the loss of species, the destruction of coral reefs and wetlands, and increased temperature-related deaths (Garnaut, 2008b).

Figure 6.1: The expected market costs for Australia of unmitigated climate change to 2100Source: Garnaut, 2008b

Figure 6.2: Projected changes to GSP to 2099Source: Garnaut, 2008a

Queensland’s economy is projected to be themost impacted from unmitigated climatechange of any Australian state or territory

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The expected market costs of unmitigatedclimate change are signi cant




The fall in Queensland’s GSP shown in Figure 6.2is attributable to the negative impacts of climatechange on infrastructure, declining demand forQueensland’s mining and agricultural exports,decline of the international tourism market andloss of productivity in the agricultural sector.A summary of these identi ed costs to key sectors ofthe Queensland economy are outlined in Table 6.1.

6.3 The costs andbene ts of mitigationThe world can avoid many of the costs ofunmitigated climate change by acting nowto reduce global emissions.

6.3.1 Commonwealth

Treasury Modelling In 2008, the Commonwealth Treasury releasedextensive modelling on the costs and opportunitiesof acting decisively to meet the challenge of climatechange (Commonwealth of Australia, 2008).

The modelling drew upon a suite of existing modelsand the modelling effort of the Garnaut Review tomeasure the economic impact of cutting carbonemissions through the CPRS. The three keyconclusions from the Commonwealth modelling were:

The Australian economy will continue to grow as1. it reduces carbon emissions.

Economic impact of unmitigated climate change on key sectors of the Queensland economy

Queensland Sector Costs

Infrastructure Impact on water supply infrastructure in major cities.•Maintenance and repair costs for infrastructure degradation.•

Cyclone damage to residential homes, commercial facilities and infrastructure.•Impacts of sea-level rise on coastal settlements.•Port productivity and infrastructure damage from sea-level rise.•Productivity losses from blackouts as a result of severe weather events.•

Exports Projected fall in the prices received for coal and other exported minerals as a result of reduced•demand for these commodities in key export markets.

Agriculture Loss of productivity in the agricultural sector as a result of declining rainfall.•

Tourism Reduced growth in the tourism sector due to slower growth in international tourism demand.•

Employment Lower employment due to reduced economic activity.•

Table 6.1: Queensland sectors and forecast costs from unmitigated climate changeSource: Garnaut, 2008b

The earlier Australia acts, the cheaper the cost2.of action. The longer it delays, the more damageit risks to the Australian economy.

Many of Australia’s key industries will become3.more, not less, competitive.

The Commonwealth Treasury modelled the costs offour emissions reduction scenarios. Two of thesewere developed jointly with the Garnaut Review;based on a per capita approach with global action tostabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhousegases at 550 and 450 ppm by around 2100. These aretermed the ‘Garnaut-10’ and ‘Garnaut-25’ scenarios.

The other two scenarios modelled examine thepotential costs of the CPRS to achieve a long-termnational target of 60 per cent below 2000 levels by2050 and short-term targets of 5 and 15 per centbelow 2000 levels by 2020. By 2100, atmosphericconcentrations of greenhouse gases in thesescenarios would stabilise at 550 ppm and510 ppm respectively. These scenarios aretermed the ‘CPRS -5’ and ‘CPRS -15’ scenarios.

The costs of these scenarios are compared to a‘reference case’, representing a world withoutclimate change or additional mitigation action.

The modelling also assumes the viability of carboncapture and storage technology, without which thecosts of climate change action for Australia wouldbe around 25 per cent higher (Commonwealth of

Australia, 2008).




Importantly, the Treasury modelling indicatedthat real GNP would continue to grow under allemissions reduction scenarios, with only a0.1 per cent reduction in average annual per capitagrowth from the introduction of the CPRS.Australia’s GNP per capita grows to 9 per centabove current levels by 2020, compared with11 per cent in the reference case. By 2050, GNP per

capita grows to 55–57 per cent above current levelsby 2050, compared with 66 per cent in thereference case (Commonwealth of Australia, 2008).These results are broadly consistent with othermodelling results (Ahammad et al, 2006; Hat eld-Dodds et al, 2007; Australian Business Roundtableon Climate Change, 2006).

The Treasury modelling also predicts a one-offin ation impact of around 1–1.5 per cent whenemissions pricing is introduced. Following thechanges to scheme commencement announced inMay 2009, the Commonwealth Government hasupdated this projection to a 0.4 per cent impact onthe cost of living in 2011–2012 (with unlimitedavailability of $10 xed price permits) and a0.8 per cent impact on the cost of living in 2012–2013 when full trading commences (Commonwealthof Australia, 2009).

According to the Treasury modelling, growth inlevels of consumption (government and privateexpenditure on goods and services on behalf of

households) will continue to grow under all mitigationscenarios, but at a slightly reduced rate, at between

2.2 and 2.3 per cent per year instead of 2.4 per cent inthe reference case.

The modelling also predicts that emissions tradingwill also affect wages and unemployment. Demandfor labour may also slow slightly. However, in thelong-term, real wages are expected to adjust toensure unemployment remains at reference caselevels (Commonwealth of Australia, 2008).

Queensland resultsThe impacts of the CPRS on Queensland will begreater than for other states and territories,because Queensland is one of the fastest growingstates and because it has an emissions-intensiveeconomy (Commonwealth of Australia, 2008). Inparticular, Queensland is heavily reliant on coal-

red electricity and has signi cant aluminiumproduction activities. Global mitigation is alsolikely to lower world demand for Queensland’sabundant supply of fossil fuel resources such ascoal in the longer term (Commonwealth ofAustralia, 2008).

The Treasury modelling found that Queensland’s GSPwill decline between 6 and 8 per cent relative to thereference case—more than any other state. However,according to the modelling, Queensland is expectedto have a high long term annual growth ratecompared with other states.

Sectoral impactsThe impact of emissions trading will vary acrosssectors, depending on a number of factors:

The relative emissions-intensity of goods•and services.Degree of trade exposure.•The emissions-intensity of Australian production•

compared with other producers.Potential mitigation options.•The ability of price rises to reduce demand•in emissions-intensive products.

The modelled impacts of emissions trading on keyAustralian sectors are outlined in Table 6.2 relative to2008 levels of production. For example, aluminiumproduction and coal- red electricity are projected tocontract, but other sectors such as forestry andrenewable energy will continue to grow.




Queensland’s coal- red electricity and aluminium industries will be signi cantly affectedby carbon pricing

Changes from Reference Scenario Change from2008

Industry CPRS -5 CPRS -15 Garnaut -10 Garnaut -25 CPRS -5

Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent

Sheep and cattle -6.7 -10.2 -6.2 -12.7 88

Forestry 150.1 584.5 166.2 874.9 484

Paper products 3.1 2.6 2.9 2.3 87

Cement -6.0 -6.4 -5.9 -6.9 106

Aluminium -45.2 -56.3 -48.9 -61.9 -7

Electricity: coal red -71.5 -68.3 -56.3 -65.9 -38

Electricity: other 1735.4 1534.8 1302.6 1692.5 2960

Rail transport: freight -0.1 -1.5 1.2 -4.0 222

Table 6.2: Changes to gross output by sector, 2050Note: Output of the forestry sector is based on land areaSource: Commonwealth of Australia, 2008

The fossil fuel electricity generation sector,primarily coal and gas, will experience a decrease indemand. As Table 6.2 shows, output from coal- redelectricity generation falls relative to 2008 levels,while ‘other electricity’, such as renewable electricitygeneration, bene ts more than any other sector fromcarbon pricing.

The effect of the CPRS on individual sectors iscovered in more detail in later chapters.

Acting early Despite these impacts, the Treasury reportconcluded that there are economic bene ts toearly action compared with doing nothing.Early action will accelerate cost reductions in lowemission technologies and allow the economy totransition more gradually to a low emission future

rather than imposing sudden dislocation whenforced to act more sharply later.

In the scenarios modelled, economic costs in 2050for those that act early are around 15 per centlower, and costs for late movers are higher.Countries that defer action simply lock inemissions-intensive infrastructure for longer andtherefore face higher long-term costs when forcedto make greater adjustments later. Globalinvestment is then redirected to those that actedearly and have lower costs. This is contrary to

claims that the Australian economy will lose itscompetitiveness and face high costs if it actsahead of other countries.

The Commonwealth Treasury modelling of theimpact of the CPRS on the Australian economydoes not include the potential impacts of climatechange itself or of adapting to climate change.The Treasury modelling therefore needs to beconsidered in the context of this broader rangeof costs and bene ts.

6.3.2 The costs and bene tsof mitigation actionLike the Stern Review, the Garnaut Reviewmodelling compared the costs of mitigationaction with the costs of climate change impacts.This highlights the net bene ts of climate changeaction—that is, the Garnaut Review modelled thecosts to the economy of emissions reductionmeasures (such as emissions trading) alongside

the economic bene ts that will result from avoidingsome of the worst impacts of climate change.

For example, the Stern Review found that costs ofaction to avoid the worst impacts of climate changewere around one per cent of global GDP each year;compared with up to 20 per cent of global GDP todeal with the impacts of climate change in theabsence of strong global action (Stern, 2006).

The Garnaut Review’s modelled costs to theAustralian economy of climate change mitigation

involved two scenarios. The rst scenario realiseda global effort to stabilise atmosphericconcentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 ppm.




The second scenario involved a more modeststabilisation goal of 550 ppm.

The results of the Garnaut Review modelling ofthese scenarios show that long-term bene ts ofavoiding climate change impacts outweigh theshort-term costs of mitigation action.

Compared with a 7.5 per cent reduction in GNP by2100 in the ‘no-mitigation’ scenario, the mitigationscenarios would result in a loss of less than2 per cent of GNP (Garnaut, 2008b).

Figure 6.3 compares projected climate change

costs under the mitigation and no mitigationscenarios. It shows that by about 2040,unmitigated climate change begins to cost theAustralian economy more than either of the twomitigation scenarios. By 2100, the loss of GNPunder an unmitigated climate change scenariowould be more than four times as high as undereither of the two mitigation strategies.

This is without the additional costs of ‘nomitigation’ that are more dif cult to measure.

Figure 6.3 also shows that the more ambitious450 ppm strategy is the least damaging to theAustralian economy in the longer term.

Figure 6.3: A comparison of the modelledexpected market costs for Australia ofunmitigated and mitigated climate changeup to 2100Source: Garnaut, 2008b

012345678

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Costs of unmitigated climate change four timesas high as mitigation scenarios

The net costs and bene ts of mitigation action forGNP growth are illustrated in Figure 6.4. After aninitial reduction in GNP growth of around0.8 per cent, the gross costs of mitigation are onlya reduction in GNP growth by around 0.1 per centper annum until around 2050. After 2060, climate

change mitigation provides a net bene t to theeconomy as a result of avoided climate changedamage (Garnaut, 2008b).




It also demonstrates that, just as Queenslandstands to bear a high proportion of mitigationcosts in the rst half of the century, it will bene tmost from climate change action in the long term.

Under the Garnaut 550 scenario, a recovery ineconomic activity in the second half of the centuryis driven by bene ts to Queensland’s agriculturesector from avoided climate change and a slightrecovery in coal exports with the anticipateddeployment of carbon capture and storagetechnologies and increased demand for electricity(Garnaut, 2008a).

The costs and bene ts of mitigation action will alsovary across sectors.

Figure 6.6. shows the differing impacts ofa 550 ppm mitigation strategy on the agricultureand forestry, mining, manufacturing and servicessectors. The agriculture and forestry sector bene tsmost from mitigation, because forestry activityexpands and agricultural productivity is lessaffected by physical climate change impacts.The mining sector bears mitigation costs untilaround 2050, but fares better in the second halfof the century as demand and prices for miningcommodities improve. The manufacturing and

services sectors are the least affectedby mitigation (Garnaut, 2008b).

Figure 6.6: Change in Australian sectoral growthrates (percentage points lost or gained) due tonet mitigation costs under the 550 ppm scenariocompared to no mitigationSource: Garnaut, 2008b

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Agriculture and forestry sectors bene t mostfrom strong mitigation actions

The costs to the Queensland economy of climatechange action are similar to the national case;upfront costs to around 2060, but ongoing long-term bene ts of mitigation action. Figure 6.5represents the costs and bene ts of climatechange action for states and territories in terms ofthe percentage fall or gain in GSP growth between2013 and 2100. The graph shows that Queenslandis most adversely affected in the rst half of thecentury, but recovers from 2050.

Figure 6.4: Change in annual GNP growth(percentage points lost or gained) due tonet mitigation costs under a 550 ppm strategy

in AustraliaSource: Garnaut, 2008b

209020702030 20502010

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net benefits to

GNP growth

There are long-term bene ts to GNP growthfrom taking mitigation action

Figure 6.5: Average change in annual GSPgrowth (percentage points lost or gained)due to mitigation costs under the 550 ppmbackstop * scenario in Australia, 2013–2100Source: Garnaut, 2008c

* The Garnaut Review’s backstop technology scenario assumesthat at a certain point, the price of carbon will be high enough

to result in the emergence of a new technology that willreduce or offset the price of carbon across the economy.

-0.20-0.15

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Queensland has the most to gain frommitigation action




Mitigation action signi cantly reduces climate change impacts on Queensland

Sector No mitigationMitigation

Garnaut-10 Garnaut-25

Irrigated agriculture in theMurray-Darling Basin.

92% decline in irrigatedagricultural production inthe Basin, affecting dairy,fruit, vegetables, grains

20% decline in irrigatedagricultural production inthe Basin.

6% decline in irrigatedagricultural production inthe Basin.

Natural resource–basedtourism in Great BarrierReef Areas.

Catastrophic destructionof the Great Barrier Reef.Reef no longer dominatedby corals.

Disappearance of reef aswe know it, with highimpact to reef-basedtourism. Three-dimensional structure ofthe corals largely goneand system dominated by

eshy seaweed and softcorals.

Mass bleaching of thecoral reef twice ascommon as today.

Water supply infrastructure Up to 34% increase in thecost of supplying urbanwater, due largely toextensivesupplementation of urbanwater systems withalternative water sources.

Up to 5% increase in thecost of supplying urbanwater. Low-levelsupplementation withalternative water sources.

Up to 4% increase in thecost of supplying urbanwater. Low-levelsupplementation withalternative water sources.

Buildings in coastalsettlements

Signi cant risk to coastalbuildings from stormevents and sea-level rise,leading to localised

coastal and ash oodingand extreme winddamage.

Signi cantly less stormenergy in the climatesystem compared withthe no mitigation

scenario and in turnreduced risk to coastalbuildings from stormdamage.

Substantially less stormenergy in the climatesystem compared withthe no mitigation

scenario and in turngreatly reduced risk tocoastal buildings fromstorm damage.

Temperature related death Over 4000 additionalheat-related deaths inQueensland each year. A‘bad-end story’ (10%chance) would lead tomore than 9500additional heat-relateddeaths in Queenslandeach year.

Fewer than 80 additionalheat-related deaths inQueensland each year.

Fewer deaths inQueensland than atpresent because of slightwarming leading todecline in cold-relateddeaths.

Table 6.3: Garnaut Review estimate of climate change impacts on Queensland under nomitigation and mitigation scenariosSource: Garnaut, 2008b






It is clear that while there are costs of taking action in the short term, Australia and•Queensland will reap the bene ts of the avoided costs of climate change in thelonger term.

Strong and decisive action will preserve many of the social and environmental values•that enhance people’s quality of life and make Queensland a great place to live.

The physical impacts of climate change affect both the industries that rely on•Queensland’s natural resources and the social and community values associatedwith a healthy environment.

Low income and disadvantaged groups are most vulnerable to the physical, social•and economic impacts of climate change.

7.The social costs of climate change




7.1 The social costsof unmitigated climate

changeClimate change costs have many dimensions. Inaddition to the environmental and physical impactsoutlined in Chapters 4 and 5 and the economiccosts outlined in Chapter 6, unmitigated climatechange would have signi cant social impacts.

The climate change impacts modelled by theGarnaut Review only included measurable marketimpacts such as a reduction in labour force andproductivity, and an increase in requirements forhealth services. They did not include non-marketfactors, such as quality of life, ecosystems, andenvironmental amenity (Garnaut, 2008b).

Some of the potential social impacts of unmitigatedclimate change would arise as a result oftemperature increases, severe weather events anddecline in productivity in certain areas. The peoplemost affected by these physical changes will bethose living in vulnerable areas such as low-lyingcoastal regions, tropical and sub-tropical

population centres, areas with high dependence onagricultural or eco-tourism activities, and remoteindigenous communities, particularly in far northQueensland (Allen Consulting Group, 2005).

While unmitigated climate change will affect thewhole population, the poorest sectors of thecommunity would be affected the most, furtherexacerbating existing inequity and disadvantage.Low income and disadvantaged groups are morevulnerable to climate change impacts, becausethey have less capacity to adapt.

Future generations will also bear the costs of thisgeneration’s actions, highlighting the ethical andmoral dimensions of climate change that must formpart of a considered climate change response.

7.2 Social impacts

of temperature riseand extreme weathereventsThe most obvious social costs of climate changeare the health impacts and social hardship causeddirectly by temperature increases, changes inweather, sea-level rise and extreme weather events(IPCC, 2007d).

Rising temperatures, heatwaves and associatedincreases in temperature-related diseases presentsigni cant social costs. Without action taken tomitigate climate change, Queensland will sufferdisproportionately more than other states withan increased incidence of heat-related deaths—anadditional 4 000 per annum (Garnaut, 2008b;McMichael et al, 2003).

These impacts would fall most heavily on the frailand vulnerable members of the community such as

the elderly and the very young. They willaffect people who lack the nancial resources toundertake adaptive measures such as ‘climate-proo ng’ their homes.

Communities in tropical areas will be most affectedby temperature increases, particularly indigenouscommunities living in poorer housing conditions.Remote communities in the far north ofQueensland would be affected by an increase inthe range of mosquito-borne diseases such asmalaria, dengue fever and Ross River virus.

More intense tropical cyclones, storms andbush res would have further social impacts




through injury or damage to homes and property.Severe weather events could also affect waterquality and sanitation, increasing the incidenceof water and food-borne diseases.

The loss, disruption and displacement associatedwith extreme weather events could lead topsychological and mental health impacts such asstress and depression (Fritze et al, 2008). This wouldbe exaccerbated by repeated exposure to naturaldisasters, and having to live with ongoing uncertainty(Fritze et al, 2008).

These stressors would be exacerbated by nancialhardship resulting from loss of assets or recoverycosts, particularly for already disadvantaged groups.

An example of these kinds of impacts are reducedincome security in drought-affected rural Australia,including stress, social isolation, strain onrelationships and evidence of increased rates ofsuicide (Fritze et al, 2008).

Climate change impacts that disrupt traditionalways of living would impact on remote indigenouscommunities. The loss of culturally signi cantecosystems may not only impact on subsistencehunting and dietary health in some communities,but could have emotional costs (Garnaut, 2008b).

Communities in the Torres Strait are particularlyvulnerable to climate change, as most Torres Straitislands are low-lying. Projected changes intemperature and rainfall, alongside the inundationof coastal areas with sea water, could affectsubsistence hunting as well as commercial

shery operations. With predicted sea-level rises,the cultural identity of these island communitieswould be threatened if communities are forcedto relocate (IPCC, 2007d; Green, 2006).

In the longer term, bush res, sea-level rise,severe weather events or drought have thepotential to make some areas less habitable,forcing communities to make dif cult decisionsabout how best to adapt to a changing climate.

7.2.1 Structural change underunmitigated climate changeDeclining rainfall could result in a declinein productivity of some industries, with localised

ow-on effects such as loss of income andemployment and possible physical and socialdislocation. Regional communities and industries

that are heavily reliant on agriculture and othernatural resource-based industries are mostvulnerable to these impacts (Garnaut, 2008b).

For example, much of Queensland’s agricultural,industrial and mining activity is located in centralQueensland (DNRM, 2005). These activitiesdepend on water availability.

With the drying trend in central Queenslandforecast to continue, these industries and thecommunities that rely on them could be affected.Climate change could also negatively impact oncommunities dependent on the tourism industry as asource of income.

The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable tothe effects of global warming (Allen ConsultingGroup, 2005). Agricultural decline could impact onthe identity and livelihoods of thousands ofQueenslanders directly reliant on shing, farmingand grazing. Loss of agricultural productivity couldhave signi cant ow-on effects, such as increasedcosts of basic food commodities.

Structural adjustment in some industries andcommunities could result in demographic changesin some regions. The movement of people could, inturn, affect employment and housing markets andthe demand for public services such as transport,health and education.




7.2.2 Implications forglobal security Climate change is likely to become a signi cantsecurity issue (Stern, 2006; CSIRO, 2006; Myers,2002). Australia’s immediate neighbours in Asiaand the Paci c are particularly vulnerable toclimate change impacts like sea-level rise, waterscarcity and declining food production.These impacts may create social and politicaltensions and exacerbate existing problems, givingrise to regional instability.

This may lead to increased defence or aidspending, as Australia may be required torespond to political and humanitarian crisesin its immediate region; either to help sustaincommunities through adaptation assistance,or to consider emergency immigrants (Garnaut,2008b).

Queensland would be one of the states on thefront line of managing such impacts.

7.2.3 Immeasurablesocial costsThere are many social and environmental valuesthat are not priced in conventional markets, butwhich have considerable worth to Queenslanders.These include environmental amenity andcommunity values that enhance overall well-being.

For example, Queenslanders, along with otherAustralians and the world, place enormous value onQueensland’s natural environment and wouldexperience a signi cant loss with the destruction ofnatural icons such as the Great Barrier Reef andnorth Queensland tropical rainforests, including theloss of many unique species.

Queenslanders place a high value on their naturalwonders and, as Professor Garnaut has highlighted,“now we will need to think about whether we areprepared to pay for their preservation” (Garnaut,2008b).

The impact of a carbon price is proportionately higher on low income households

Household type Utility adjusted carbon costs% of annual expenditure

Carbon price $25 $50

Low income family households 2.3 4.6

Working age social security dependent family 2.2 4.3

Age pension households 0.8 1.6

Low skilled working households 1.0 1.9

High income tertiary educated households 0.4 0.7

Average 1.34 2.62

Table 7.1: Impact of carbon prices on different Australian household typesSource: Sherrard & Tate, 2008.




7.3 The social costs ofclimate change

mitigationClimate change mitigation will bring aboutadjustment in some sectors of the economyand affect prices for essential services.

Low income households spend proportionatelymore of their disposable income on basicnecessities such as energy and food, and will beparticularly exposed to the higher costs of livingthat will ow from the introduction of a carbon

price as indicated in Table 7.1 (Commonwealth ofAustralia, 2008; Garnaut, 2008b).

The Commonwealth Government intends tocompensate households for higher prices byincreasing bene t payments to low-incomefamilies.However, any unforeseen increases in thecost of essential goods and services couldexacerbate existing socio-economic disadvantageand associated social conditions such asdependence, poor mental health, stress and social

isolation (Fritze et al, 2008).

Low income and disadvantaged groups also haveless capacity to invest in energy ef ciencymeasures, and are more likely to live in urbanfringes with limited access to adequate publictransport (ACOSS, 2009; Garnaut, 2008b).

Over the longer term, policies will also be neededto help manage the social impacts of structuralchange that could occur with the movement awayfrom emissions-intensive industries. In this case,affected workers may need to nd alternativeemployment. Communities that are heavily relianton these industries will also need to adapt.The Commonwealth’s proposed Climate ChangeAction Fund is designed to assist with these kindsof readjustments.

Despite the potential for mitigation to imposesome social costs, it is clear that these are minimalcompared with the bene ts to be gained fromavoiding dangerous climate change.

Climate change action will have major socialbene ts by reducing, delaying or avoiding manyof the projected impacts of unmitigated climatechange such as higher sea-level rise, major loss ofspecies and ecosystems, more temperature-relateddeaths, more extreme weather events and more

severe economic costs and ow-on effects.






8. Queensland’s early responseto climate change

Queensland has been proactive in its climate change response.•

Major initiatives, such as the ban on broad scale land clearing by the end of 2006, achieved•signi cant emissions abatement and supported Australia’s progress towards achieving itscommitments under the Kyoto Protocol.

Initial emissions reduction measures were expanded and enhanced by Queensland’s•ClimateSmart 2050 strategy, which outlined a range of short, medium and long-term strategies tomove Queensland towards a low carbon future and contribute to national and global efforts totackle climate change.

Programs to prepare Queensland for the inevitable impacts of climate change were•established in the ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12 action plan.

Growing scienti c certainty about the impacts of climate change is focusing government•efforts to deliver more comprehensive approaches to addressing climate change.




8.1 Early initiativesThe Queensland Government has led thedevelopment and implementation of programs toreduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Ban on land clearing The Queensland Government took the rst step inaddressing climate change by banning broad scaleland clearing by 31 December 2006 under theVegetation Management Act 1999 . It is estimated thatthis ban will prevent up to 20 Mt of greenhouse gasesentering the atmosphere each year from 2008–12(DCC, 2008c).

Queensland Gas SchemeElectricity generation from gas produces up to50 per cent less emissions than conventionalcoal- red electricity generation (QueenslandGovernment, 2007). Gas has been identi ed by theQueensland Government as a key transitional fuelsource to reduce the carbon dioxide emissionsintensity of electricity generation, while low emissioncoal technology and emerging renewable energysources are being developed.

Since January 2005, Queensland electricity retailersand large electricity users have been required tosource at least 13 per cent of their electricity fromgas- red generators.

The Queensland Gas Scheme—the only one of itskind in Australia—has:

driven a $1 billion investment in the•development of the state’s coal seam gasindustry, creating at least 600 jobs(DME, 2008).

Supported the economic and policy incentive for•$1.2 billion investment in gas- red power stationgeneration in Queensland.

Reduced the greenhouse gas intensity of the•stationary energy sector in Queensland’s byan estimated 2.7 Mt CO 2-e per annum.

The scheme will also reduce the costs of compliancewith the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme to theQueensland’s economy. Building on the success ofthis scheme, the target will be increased to18 per cent by 2020 (see ClimateSmart 2050 ProgressReport at Appendix 4).

South-east Queensland waterprogramsPrior to the current drought, south-east Queensland’s(SEQ) average daily water consumption was morethan 300 litres per person (QWC, 2008c). With severedrought, a rapid population increase and an expectedreduction in in ows with climate change, SEQ—one ofthe fastest growing regions in the world—was runningout of water.

To ensure long-term water security for a growingpopulation and strong economy, the QueenslandGovernment launched a major development programdesigned to optimise water storage and supplyinfrastructure in the SEQ region:

$9 billion Water Grid that allows risk to•be managed at a regional level rather on a storagebasis by allowing the movement of water fromareas of water surplus to areas that facea shortfall. This includes new water supplyoptions such as the $1.2 billion Gold CoastDesalination Plant (to be powered by carbon-neutral energy) and the western corridor recycledwater pipeline.

Mandatory demand side management•requirements for business and householdssuch as water restrictions and WaterEf ciency Management Plans.

Community participation programs, such as the•Target 140 and the Water at Work programs, thathave lead to south-east Queensland leading theworld in water ef ciency.




Providing more than $400 million worth of cash•incentives for water supply and ef ciencymeasures such as for rainwater tanks andbusiness water ef ciency measures.

The Target 140 program was particularly successful.SEQ residents reached the target and consistentlyused less than 140 litres per person per day (p/p/d)over the campaign. In 2007/2008, average residentialconsumption was 129 litres p/p/d, falling to as low as112 litres p/p/d (QWC, 2008a). This is reported to bethe lowest of any urban area in Australia and one ofthe lowest in the developed world.

Most importantly, the demand side managementprograms saved 52.5 billion litres (equivalent to theannual yield of the Hinze dam) helping to secureSEQ’s water supplies until new infrastructure cameonline at the end of 2008 (QWC, 2008b). It alsoprompted behavioural changes, which formed thebasis for continued water saving to ensure asustainable water future for SEQ as it faces populationgrowth and the uncertainty of climate change.

8.2 Current policies

ClimateSmart 2050ClimateSmart 2050: Queensland Climate ChangeStrategy 2007: a low carbon future (ClimateSmart2050) was launched in June 2007 and expressedthe Queensland Government’s long-termcommitment to contribute to achieving the nationalemissions target of 60 per cent below 2000 levelsby 2050.

ClimateSmart 2050 was the rst stage of acoordinated whole-of-government approach to

address the climate change challenge, andoutlined a comprehensive suite of initiativescovering the community, energy, transport, primaryindustries, industry, planning and building sectors.It represented a total initial investment of$1.4 billion, including $844 million by theQueensland Government.

Many ClimateSmart 2050 initiatives were at theforefront of greenhouse gas mitigation strategiesin Australia, including:

$430 million Queensland Climate Change Fund•to provide approximately $30 million every yearto support new climate change initiatives.

$50 million Renewable Energy Fund to provide•support to industry to deploy signi cantrenewable energy generation (i.e. above100kW) in areas such as geothermal, wind,solar, biomass, bagasse and other renewableenergy sources.

$55 million Smart Energy Savings Fund to assist•Queensland small-to-medium businessesimprove energy ef ciency in buildings andindustrial processes.

Establishment of the Clean Coal Council and•investment of $900 million ($300 million fromGovernment and $600 million from the coalindustry) to drive development of carboncapture and storage technologies.

Increasing the percentage of Queensland’s•energy generation being produced by gasunder the Queensland Gas Scheme from13 per cent to 18 per cent by 2020.

$10 million towards identifying future•geosequestration sites to store carbon dioxidethat results from burning fossil fuels such ascoal and gas.

Phasing out electric hot water systems•from existing homes in gas-reticulatedareas from 2010.

Establishing a Queensland feed-in tariff for•solar power to pay people whose home solarsystems put power into the electricity grid.

Table 8.1 provides a snapshot of the progress ofthe range of ClimateSmart 2050 initiatives. A moredetailed progress report on each initiative is atAppendix 4.




Table 8.1: Progress snapshot of ClimateSmart 2050 initiatives (as at January 2009)× = no progress or initiative superseded+ = initiative commenced and progressing ü = initiative implemented/ongoing activity integrated with core business/completed

Initiative Progress as atDecember 2008

$900 million investment in demonstrating clean coal technologies +

$300 million Queensland Climate Change Fund for new climate change initiatives ü

$50 million Queensland Renewable Energy Fund to assist deployment of renewabletechnologies

ü

$10 million to identify future geosequestration sites for underground storage of CO 2 +

Queensland renewable and low-emission energy target (RLEET) of 10 per cent by 2020 × * Increase the proportion of electricity generated from gas under the Queensland GasScheme to 18 per cent by 2020

ü

Introduce a feed-in tariff for solar power to pay households for the electricity theygenerate

ü

Supporting research into hydrogen fuel cells for general use +

A framework for approving new coal- red electricity generation ü

$55 million SmartEnergy Savings Program to increase energy ef ciency of industry ü

$7.25 million ClimateSmart Homes Rebates to increase energy ef ciency in remotehouseholds ü

$1.5 million ClimateSmart Living public awareness and education campaign ü

$500 000 Home EnergyWise tools for household energy ef ciency ü

Energy Choices Program, providing residential and school energy ef ciency incentives ü

Introduce a 4-star (out of 5) non-residential energy performance standard for newcommercial buildings

+

Develop a State Planning Policy to include climate change in regional developmentconsiderations

+

Phase-out of electric storage hot water systems in existing houses (initially in gasreticulated areas)

+

Queensland Carbon Offsets Policy to take advantage of opportunities under the CPRS +

Ecofund (formerly Green Invest) to provide offset opportunities on state-owned land ü

More infrastructure and services for public transport, walking and cycling +

Encourage Queensland motorists to offset their vehicle emissions through voluntarycontributions

+

Offsetting 100 per cent of emissions from government vehicles by 2020 ü

Achieving carbon-neutral government of ce buildings by 2020 ü

* The RLEET has been superceded by the Commonwealth Government’s proposed Renewable Energy Target.




ClimateSmart Adaptation2007–12ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12: an action plan for managing the impacts of climate change wasAustralia’s rst adaptation plan. It was released in June 2007 and complemented the mitigationmeasures in the ClimateSmart 2050 strategy.

ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12 (the Action Plan)focused on priority sectors including: waterplanning and services; agriculture; humansettlements; natural environment and landscapes;emergency services and human health; tourism;business and industry; and nance and insurance. .

Examples of work to date under the Action Planinclude:Maintaining a long-term collaborative research•program with CSIRO to deliver focused climatechange research for Queensland.

Partnering with Tourism Queensland to deliver a•suite of climate change workshops for tourismoperators around the state.

Reviewing the State Coastal Management Plan•to ensure it integrates the latest climate changeresponses for coastal Queensland.

Factoring climate change into statutory•

regional plans, which manage current andfuture land use and development acrossQueensland’s regions.

Providing climate change analysis to inform•the development of three regional watersupply strategies.

Investigating high resolution Digital Elevation•Modelling for the Queensland coast, to identifyareas at risk of inundation from the sea as aresult of climate change.

Table 8.2 provides a snapshot of the progress ofthe range of ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12initiatives. A more detailed progress report on eachinitiative is at Appendix 4.




Table 8.2: Progress snapshot of ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12 initiatives (as at January 2009)× = no progress or initiative superseded+ = initiative commenced and progressing ü = initiative implemented/ongoing activity integrated with core business/completed


Prepare regional-scale climate change projections ü

Maintain and enhance national and international research collaborations ü

Prepare a vulnerability assessment of Queensland’s regions and sectors ü

Build the capacity of priority sectors to manage the impacts of climate change + Support research through the Growing the Smart State—PhD Funding Program ü

Develop and implement Phase One of the ClimateSmart Living campaign üDevelop a whole-of-government web portal on climate change ü

Assess risks for Queensland Government business ü

Explore ways of incorporating climate change into environmental impact assessments ü

Contribute to the national meta-database of climate change ü

Establish a network for Queensland climate change professionals ü

Develop performance indictors for ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007-12 ü

Contribute to implementation of the COAG National Climate Change AdaptationFramework

ü

Contribute to collaborative climate change action through Natural Resource ManagementMinisterial Council

ü

Integrate climate change into water infrastructure, management and planning ü

Diversify water-supply sources to reduce dependency on vulnerable supplies +

Promote water-use ef ciency by encouraging and supporting lower water consumption ü

Further explore the use and management of recycled water on state-controlled roads ü

Continue to assess changes to Probable Maximum Precipitation estimates ü

Continue to apply water management strategies in government-owned buildings ü

Integrate downscaled and regional climate change projections into hydrological models +

Include climate change considerations in farm management systems and propertyplanning

ü

Explore opportunities to continue the climate workshops held for the agricultural sector +

Continue research and development into farming practices affected by changedconditions

+

Develop commodity-speci c forecasting models for regional climate change scenarios +

Implement actions in the National Agriculture and Climate Change Action Plan +

Undertake research to determine suitable plant varieties for Queensland regions +

Research partnerships on impacts on agricultural commodities and adaptation options ü

Improve understanding of the risks and impacts of climate change on coastalQueensland +





Contribute to Queensland Local Government Climate Change Management Strategy ü

Ensure regional planning include responses to climate change ü

Incorporate climate change into State Flood Risk Management Policy +

Update the Queensland Urban Drainage Manual as needed ü

Periodically review physical infrastructure to determine climate change risks +

Review the effectiveness of existing planning tools in addressing climate change +

Review planning guidance given to local government on shoreline erosion management +

Promote continual improvement in climate-sensitive design in the building sector ü

Review capacity of Queensland’s existing energy infrastructure to cope with climatechange

+

Work with energy suppliers to ensure networks can cope with increased peak demand +

Include climate change in programs to improve appeal and amenity of public transport ü

Advance Smart Travel Choices for south-east Queensland ü

Incorporate risk assessments in design and planning of transport infrastructure +

Review options to manage impacts of climate change on ecosystems ü

Identify information gaps on impacts of climate change on biodiversity ü

Include climate change information in conservation and natural resource management ü

Implement National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan +

Work with the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority to implement joint initiatives +

Undertake assessments of impacts on vegetation types, grazing land and cropping land +Work with Natural Resource Management bodies to provide climate change information +

Improve models for coastal and riverine environments to incorporate climate change +

Build capacity of disadvantaged communities to respond to climate change impacts +

Provide planning and emergency management advice on storm tides +

Ensure that reviews of local disaster management plans include climate change +

Implement actions from the 2006 Cyclone Summit ü

Extend preparedness and awareness programs for communities +

Review the Queensland Heatwave Response Strategy ü

Continue to invest in the prevention of mosquito-borne diseases +

Develop online Best Practice Sustainable Tourism package +

Review and update the ecoBiz program to promote adaptation to climate change +

Support energy and water-ef ciency innovations through Queensland SustainableEnergy Innovation Fund and ecoBiz

ü

Work with insurance and nance sector to understand risks and potential costs +

Identify investment and business opportunities for Queensland +






The OCC incorporates the Queensland ClimateChange Centre of Excellence (QCCCE), whichprovides decision-makers throughout Queenslandwith information and scienti c data on climatechange and its impacts. QCCCE workscollaboratively with Australian and internationalresearch agencies, industry and all levels ofgovernment to ensure that data is relevant andresponsive to the urgent needs of climate change.

In 2008, the Queensland Government establishedthe Of ce of Clean Energy (OCE) to support thedevelopment of the renewable energy industry inQueensland, including through the RenewableEnergy Fund. The OCE also assists business andthe community to understand, adopt and bene t

from energy ef ciency programs.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility In late 2007, the Commonwealth Governmentcommitted $20 million towards a researchconsortium to lead and coordinate adaptationresearch across Australia.

Queensland successfully bid to host the NationalClimate Change Adaptation Research Facility(NCCARF), which was established in early 2008at Grif th University, in south-east Queensland.

The Queensland Government has committed$2 million in funds to NCCARF from the QueenslandClimate Change Fund, and more than $1 millionof additional in-kind support.

NCCARF’s key role is to synthesise knowledge,coordinate research activities, broker researchpartnerships and provide information for decision-makers on adaptation priorities.

8.4 A brighter future‘Toward Q2’

Queensland’s natural environment and lifestyle areunder increasing pressure from its growingpopulation and the greatest global challenge ofthis time—climate change.

Faced with this challenge, the QueenslandGovernment developed a plan, Toward Q2:Tomorrow’s Queensland , to ensure that thestate remains a place that continues to offerthe quality of life which its residents areaccustomed to.

Queensland is leaving a heavy imprint with itscarbon footprint, with average greenhouse gasemissions per person among the highest inthe world.

The vision of Toward Q2 is to build a Queenslandthat is strong; green; smart; healthy; and fair.TheToward Q2 plan will be achieved by 2020.

In its ‘green’ ambition, the QueenslandGovernment has set itself a target to cutQueenslanders’ carbon footprint by one third by2020, by reducing car and electricity use, andhousehold waste to land ll.

Meeting this target will save 4.6 tonnes ofgreenhouse gas emissions per household in oneyear. If every household reaches the target, thesaving will be 10.1 million tonnes by 2020 (DPC,2008).






To guide the direction of future climate change responses in Queensland, the Queensland•Government commissioned a research and modelling project to investigate the potentialfor economically responsible reductions in Queensland’s greenhouse gas emissions.

A state-wide marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) was constructed to identify in broad•

terms cost-effective abatement opportunities across a number of economic sectors.This research identi ed areas of potential abatement within Queensland that could be•achieved at little or negative cost, including:

Energy ef ciency in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.•

Mode switching in the transport sector and fuel ef ciency.•

Taking further steps to reduce land clearing in Queensland.•

The MACC also identi ed that signi cant abatement potential exists by deploying•carbon capture and storage and renewable energy, such as geothermal and wind power,but at higher cost.

9.Future priorities for action




9.1 Identifying cost-effective abatement

measuresTo date, the Queensland Government has taken astrategic and innovative approach to the challengeof climate change and delivered signi cantabatement outcomes for Australia.Queensland’s speci c challenges and the potentialstate-wide impacts of climate change make itcritical that Queensland pursues measures tosupport emissions reductions and the transitionto a green economy.

To support the review of Queensland’s climatechange strategy, the government commissioned aresearch and modelling project to estimate theemissions of various sectors out to 2050 under abusiness-as-usual scenario and to investigate thepotential for additional cost-effective reductions toQueensland’s greenhouse gas emissions into thefuture. The project delivered a state-wide marginalabatement cost curve (MACC). This work providesimportant guidance on possible areas for futurefocus and trade-offs associated with different

options in charting an economically responsiblepath to greenhouse gas abatement.

Central to the construction of the MACC was alarge-scale model that combined indicative emissionsreduction potential, selected areas of opportunity andassociated costs to deliver a potential abatement costcurve for the state. Importantly, the model accountedfor intra- and inter-sector dependencies, showinghow abatement in some areas of the economy wouldaffect the potential of others.

The range of initiatives modelled was notexhaustive, however the cost curve can be used tounderstand the abatement potential and costswithin those selected areas to identify least costemissions reductions.

9.2 The 2050 MACCFigure 9.1 presents cumulative MACC data drawnfrom the consultant’s report as at 2050. It showssome potential areas of abatement opportunity,with the size of each bubble indicating the totalcumulative abatement potential to 2050, and theaverage cost per tonne of abatement. For thepurposes of presentation Figure 9.1 groups similarabatement opportunities into ‘types’. For example,a wide range of household energy ef ciencymeasures, such as energy ef cient lighting andgreenhouse-friendly hot water, have been groupedinto ‘residential energy ef ciency’.

Given the length of time over which this modellingoccurs, this estimate can only be considered asindicative. Additional abatement may emerge fromfuture technological innovation, as well as variousinitiatives that have not been included within thismodelling. There is also the potential for furtherabatement using less conservative assumptionsthan those employed within this modelling.

Due to the dominance of stationary energy inQueensland’s greenhouse gas emissions pro le,there is a sizeable opportunity for abatement from

energy ef ciency in the residential, commercial andindustrial sectors. In particular, there areconsiderable opportunities for industrial energyef ciency and cogeneration at a relatively low cost.

The MACC estimates that carbon capture andstorage offers potential for very signi cant levels ofabatement by 2050 at relatively low cost per tonneof abatement. Renewable energy, such asgeothermal and wind power, also have signi cantabatement potential but at higher cost.




Not shown in Figure 9.1 are solar thermal, solar PVand wave power which the MACC indicates havethe potential to contribute large amounts ofabatement but at a higher average cost.

The transport sector offers opportunities forcost-effective abatement. Given long–termprojections of higher fuel prices, vehicle ef ciencymeasures and alternative fuels offer largegreenhouse gas abatement potential, as well as

delivering an overall economic bene t.

The MACC shows that avoided land clearing (forexample, carbon capture through managedregrowth) has a very great potential abatementopportunity, at relatively low cost. Potentialabatement in the waste sector can be achievedat relatively low or negative cost, although theamount of total abatement to 2050 isrelatively modest.

The MACC indicates that abatement in the

agricultural sector is less straightforward. Notshown in Figure 9.1 is abatement from cropland

management (less use of nitrogenous fertiliser)which the MACC nds is extremely cost effective,but only provides a small amount of totalabatement. Other agricultural measures, such aslivestock ef ciency, have the potential to providevery large amounts of abatement but at highaverage cost ($120 per tonne).

Several of the high cost initiatives (e.g. solar PV,solar thermal and livestock ef ciency) do offer

substantial abatement potential and may becomemore nancially viable in the future depending ontechnology improvements and/or levels ofgovernment assistance.

The following chapters discuss in moredetail the issues and opportunities associated withgreenhouse gas emissions abatement in eachsector, and climate change adaptation challengesand priorities.

Figure 9.1: Queensland marginal abatement cost curve (cumulative to 2050)—potential abatementopportunitiesSource: Of ce of Climate Change (DERM) using The Nous Group & SKM, 2008 data

Energy and transport ef ciency, and reducing land clearing are areas of potential abatement to 2050that incur little or negative cost.

i

A v e r a g e

C o s t o

f A b a t e m e n t

( $ p e r t o n n e

C O 2 - e

) Transport Mode Switching PassengerPassenger Transport Fuel EfficiencyAlternative Transport FuelsTransport Mode Switching FreightFreight Transport Fuel EfficiencyReduced Traffic CongestionResidential Energy EfficiencyCommercial Energy EfficiencyWaste AvoidanceIndustrial Energy EfficiencyWaste to EnergyCogeneration

Stationary Energy EfficiencyWaste Process ChangeAvoided Land ClearingFugitive Emissions MiningCarbon Capture & StorageIndustrial Process ChangeBiofuelsBiofuels (power generation)Afforestation (harvested plantations)GeothermalWind

Legend: 50 Mt of CO2

0

20

40

60

80

-40

-20

100




9.3 Complementarymeasures assessmentIn December 2008, the Council of AustralianGovernments (COAG) agreed to certain principlesfor greenhouse gas mitigation measures to ensurethey complement the CPRS.

The states and territories agreed to review theirexisting mitigation measures to ensure they areconsistent with these principles.

The Queensland Government engaged anindependent consultant (Heuris Partners) toreview its existing climate change initiatives forconsistency with the principles. Heuris Partnersfound that the vast majority of Queensland’sexisting mitigation measures are consistent withthe COAG principles.

They found that the only Queensland programs thatmay not be consistent with the principles are:

10 per cent Renewable and Low Emission•Energy Target (RLEET);

Queensland Gas Scheme;•

Solar Bonus Scheme (feed-in tariff);•Conditions on new electricity generation.•

The Queensland Government has already agreedto consider transitioning out of the QueenslandGas Scheme when the bene ts of the CPRS arebroadly equivalent to that of the 18 per centScheme. The Government has also agreed todiscontinue RLEET in light of the nationalRenewable Energy Target.

The Solar Bonus Scheme is consistent withCOAG principles for feed-in tariffs and ClimateQ includes new conditions for new coal- redelectricity generation.

The new initiatives in ClimateQ have beendeveloped for consistency with the COAGprinciples. In particular, they have been designedto address expected market failures of the CPRS.The initiatives are also designed to be consistentwith the principle of being implemented by themost appropriate level of Government.

Implementation of new initiatives will continue totake the complementarity principles into account aswell as any future COAG agreements oncomplementary measures.




COAG principles for complementary measuresThe measures are targeted at a market failure that is not expected to be adequately addressed by1.the CPRS, or that impinges on its effectiveness in driving emissions reductions. For example,

research and development failures, common use infrastructure issues, information failures andexcess market power.

a. Complementary measures should adhere to the principles of ef ciency, effectiveness,equity and administrative simplicity and be kept under review. They may include:

b. Measures targeted at a market failure in a sector that is not covered by the CPRS.

c. Measures for where the price signals provided by the CPRS are insuf cient to overcomeother market failures that prevent the take-up of otherwise cost-effective abatementmeasures.

d. Measures targeted at sectors of the economy where price signals may not be as signi cant adriver of decision-making (e.g. land use and planning).

e. Some measures in (a) or (b) may only need to be transitional depending on expectedchanges in coverage or movements in the carbon price.

Complementary measures should be tightly targeted to the market failure identi ed in the above2.criteria that are amenable to government intervention. Where the measures are regulatory, theyshould meet best-practice regulatory principles, including that the bene ts of any governmentintervention should outweigh the costs.

Complementary measures may also be targeted to manage the impacts of the Carbon Pollution3.Reduction Scheme on particular sectors of the economy (for example, to address equity or regionaldevelopment concerns). Where this is the case, in line with regulatory best-practice, the non-abatement objective should be clearly identi ed and it should be established that the measure is

the best method of attaining the objective.Where measures meet the above criteria, they should generally be implemented by the level of4.government that is best able to deliver the measure. In determining this, consideration should begiven to which level of government has responsibility as de ned by the Constitution or convention/practice, the regulatory and compliance costs that will be imposed on the community, and how thedelivery of the measure is best coordinated or managed across jurisdictions.

Source: COAG, 2008




Energy – generating a new futureOvercoming challenges to transition Queensland to a lowemissions future

Queensland business – a new

operating climateExploring and adopting sustainable practices

Planning and building – tools tominimise climate change impactsIntegrating climate change considerations into land useplanning and building design to reduce emissions andimpacts of climate change

Community – householders reducingtheir carbon footprintCollective ClimateSmart choices by Queenslandhouseholds making a real difference to climate change

Our policy approach

The policy initiatives outlined in the following section ofClimateQ

will contributetowards protecting Queensland’s lifestyle and environment and helping the Statemove to a low carbon future.

The initiatives are grouped into key Queensland sectors:




Primary Industries – growth in achanging landscapeMaintaining and enhancing sustainable, liveable andprosperous rural communities

Transport – moving towards a lowcarbon futureTransitioning transport to a carbon-constrained world andadapting to a changing climate

Ecosystems – protecting our lifestyle andenvironmentMinimising future climate change impacts on our State’s

natural environment

Government – leading by exampleReducing greenhouse gas emissions from governmentoperations and ensuring infrastructure resilience in achanging climate






Energy production and use is the most signi cant contributor to Queensland’s•greenhouse gas emissions. Energy sector emissions represent 54 per cent of totalemissions in 2007 and have grown by more than 94 per cent since 1990.

Queensland’s energy-intensive industries account for a large proportion of energy sector•emissions but are growing gradually. Households account for a smaller proportion ofenergy sector emissions but are growing rapidly.

The proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)will only address part of the•challenge to reducing emissions from the energy sector.

There are signi cant low-cost abatement opportunities available to Queensland in the•areas of energy ef ciency and energy conservation. This is currently being constrainedby non-market barriers such as information gaps, business and community capacity toadopt change and split incentives to taking action.

Renewable energy generation opportunities are strong and diverse in Queensland.•Gas remains a key transitional fuel source for electricity generation.

The introduction of the expanded national Renewable Energy Target (RET) provides•Queensland with the opportunity to develop a new economic and regional developmentstrategy around signi cant predicted private investment in renewable energyelectricity generation.

Research and development is needed to further develop low emissions technologies.•

A concerted effort by government is needed to drive the technology and behavioural•

change towards low emissions and renewable energy electricity generation andenergy conservation.

10..

Energy—generating a new future




10.1 ContextEnergy is a vital input to all sectors of theQueensland economy. As well as supplyingthe power on which industry, businesses andhouseholds depend, the production and supplyof energy provides employment, investment andexport opportunities. The energy sector makesa major contribution to the Queensland economyand has underpinned much of the welfare andstandard of living that all Queenslanders enjoy.

Managing future energy needs represents one ofthe most signi cant challenges for the QueenslandGovernment, business and the community.This challenge comes at a time of increasinginternational competition for industry andemployment, and concerns over climate change.

The energy sector accounts for more than half ofthe state’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Most electricity consumed in Queensland is forindustrial purposes, with heavy industries such asmining and metals processing accounting for morethan 33 per cent of all Queensland’s electricityconsumption in 2006-07. When other commercialsectors are taken into account, industrial energyconsumption rises to more than half ofQueensland’s total. Although industry accounts forthe largest share of Queensland’s electricityconsumption, it is growing gradually (ABARE,2008).

The residential sector is a smaller, but rapidlygrowing, proportion of Queensland’s electricityconsumption. Electricity consumption by theresidential sector has grown twice as fast as overallelectricity consumption since 2000-01 (ABARE,2008). Reasons for this include strong populationgrowth and increases in peak demand, due in partto an increasing consumer appetite for energy-intensive appliances such as airconditioners,computers, and large-sized televisions (PCCC,2008a). This increased demand needs to bematched by additional electricity supply, which inQueensland is predominantly from fossil-fuelbased generation.

Queensland has long enjoyed the advantageof extensive deposits of quality black coal

(33 billion tonnes identi ed) and gas(16 500 petajoules of reserves), resulting in acompetitively priced electricity supply (DME, 2007).

This advantage has contributed to Queensland’sstrong economic performance over the last decade.

As with many developed economies, Queensland’selectricity system is based on large centralisedpower stations (predominantly coal- red) and longdistance transmission of electricity to end users.Such electricity systems are designed to useeconomies of scale in generation, and maximisesecurity and reliability of supply to consumers.However, these systems are also subject toelectricity losses associated with long distancetransmission and the ongoing economic liabilityassociated with the need to maintain, upgrade oraugment powerlines to meet the growth in electricitydemand and service new urban developments.

10.2 Greenhousegas emissions fromQueensland’s energysector 10.2.1 Historical energy sectoremissions 1990–2007Stationary energy includes greenhouse gasemissions from electricity generation and theconsumption of fossil fuels by industry throughmanufacturing and construction. Importantly, theemissions from stationary energy are shared by allactivities that occur within the Queenslandeconomy and which use electricity. For this reason,elements of emissions from this sector areaddressed in this chapter, but are also shared bythe Planning and Building, Industry and Communitychapters of the Strategy.




Fugitive greenhouse gas emissions compriseemissions from the extraction and distribution ofcoal, oil and natural gas.

While Queensland’s total state-wide greenhousegas emissions have increased gradually over theperiod 1990-2007, Figure 10.1 demonstrates thatgreenhouse gas emissions from stationary energyhave increased dramatically over this 17-yeartimeframe.

Queensland’s stationary energy emissions, whichinclude those from electricity generation, havegrown by almost 95 per cent since 1990 – almosttwice the national rate of stationary energy growthover the same period. Notably, however, around10 per cent of Queensland’s has been exported tosouthern states in recent years.

Around 1999, stationary energy overtook land use,land use change and forestry as Queensland’ssingle largest source of emissions. Since 1990,emission reductions achieved from policyinitiatives – such as a ban on broad scale landclearing in 1999 – have been offset by the rapidgrowth in emissions from stationary energy.

While emissions from land clearing are projectedto decline further over coming years, emissionsfrom stationary energy are projected to continueto grow.

Figure 10.1: Key sectoral in uences onQueensland emissions

Source: DCC, 2009c

Emissions from the energy sector have almost doubled since 1990

1990(Mt CO2-e) % Total 2007

(Mt CO2-e) % Total % Change

Total Queensland emissions 166.7 100% 181.6 100% 8.9%

Energy sector 50.6 30.4% 98.5 54.2% 94.7%

Stationary Energy• 35.2 21.1% 68.4 37.6% 94.3%

Energy Industries» 24.5 14.7% 53.1 29.2% 116.7%

Electricity Generation- 22.8 13.7% 49.4 27.2% 116.6%

Other energy industries- 1.7 1.0% 3.7 2.0% 117.6%

Manufacturing and Construction» 8.8 5.3% 12.4 6.8% 40.9%

Other sectors» 1.8 1.1% 2.7 1.5% 50.0%

Transport• 11.9 7.3% 18.9 10.4% 58.8%

Fugitive emissions• 3.5 2.0% 11.2 6.2% 220%

Table 10.1: Energy sector emissions in 1990 and 2007Source: DCC, 2009c

Reductions in emissions from land use havebeen offset by growth in electricity generation

I

M i l l i o n t o n n e s

( M t )

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Year

Land Use,Land Use Change

and Forestry sectoremissions

Stationary Energyemissions

Total State-wideemissions

1990

2007




10.2.2 Projected growth ingreenhouse gas emissionsfrom energy to 2050To establish a baseline upon which Queenslandcan quantify and compare new emissionsabatement initiatives in the energy sector,a business as usual emissions pro le to 2050 hasbeen developed. The emissions pro le presentedin Figure 10.2 takes into account the projectedemissions savings of all current Queensland policyinitiatives, including programs under the existingClimateSmart 2050 strategy. Improvements inef ciency or changes in production methodshave been included to the extent that they

can be reasonably forecast.

The expected impacts of key national policycommitments by the Commonwealth Government,including the proposed 20 per cent RET by 2020,have been considered in the business as usualmodel. It does not include the impacts of the CPRSproposed by the Commonwealth Government.

Aside from transport emissions (which areaddressed in Chapter 15), energy sector emissionscomprise stationary energy (fuel combustion) and

fugitive emissions from coal mining, oil and naturalgas production. Figure 10.2 shows that underbusiness-as-usual, energy sector emissions willcontinue to grow strongly to 2050.

Although the rate of growth in emissions fromstationary energy will stabilise after the rapidincrease from 1990 to 2007, it is still projected to be50 per cent larger by 2050 than current levels.

Fugitive emissions from coal mining account for asmaller proportion of Queensland’s total emissions,however they are projected to be the state’s fastestgrowing source of emissions. After more thandoubling between 1990 and 2007, fugitiveemissions are expected to more than doubleagain by 2050 due to increases in Queenslandcoal production.

Together, emissions from stationary energy (fuelcombustion) and fugitive emissions are projected toreach almost 140 Mt CO2-e by 2050 under business-as-usual (The Nous Group & SKM, 2008).

The CPRS is expected to place downward pressureon the projected growth in emissions from theenergy sector. A carbon price will decrease demandfor electricity relative to the business as usual caseand stimulate a transformation towards low andzero emissions electricity generation technologies.In the short to medium term, the sector will switchfrom coal to gas and renewables. In the longerterm, carbon capture and storage technologies areexpected to play a signi cant role. In the interim,less ef cient coal- red power plants are likelyto be retired prematurely, or may be convertedto less carbon intensive fuels, such as gas.

Figure 10.2: Queensland energy sectoremissions projections (excluding transport)Source: The Nous Group & SKM, 2008

Energy sector emissions continue to grow underbusiness-as-usual

I

0

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i l l i o n

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Fugitive emissionsStationary Energy(fuel combustion)




10.3 The challengesfor reducing emissionsin the energy sector

10.3.1 DiversifyingQueensland’s electricitygeneration fuel mixMost of Queensland electricity generation comesfrom coal- red power stations, located mainlyin central and southern parts of the state. Thenumber of gas- red power stations is increasingin response to the introduction of the QueenslandGas Scheme. Renewable energy, such as solar,hydro, wind and biomass is also being used togenerate small amounts of electricity

in Queensland.Table 10.2 summarises the electricity generationand greenhouse emissions by fuel type and

Queensland electricity generation is dominated by coal

InstalledCapacity

(MW)

% ofState’s

InstalledCapacity

Energy SentOut MWh/yr

CO2-eProduced

tonnes

% ofEmissions

CO2-eEmission

Intensity t/MWh (s/o)

Forecast %of State’sInstalled

Capacity(2020)

Coal 8 861 77.9% 46 703 773 42 645 615 94.5% 0.913 72%

Sub-critical 5 888 51.7% 28 068 691 26 195 400 58.1% 0.933

Supercritical 2 973 26.1% 18 635 082 16 450 215 36.5% 0.883

Gas 1 555 13.7% 5 468 179 2 426 434 5.4% 0.444 14%

OCGT 874 7.7% 2 010 412 1 142 556 2.5% 0.568

CCGT 681 6.0% 3 457 766 1 283 877 2.8% 0.371

Fuel Oil 322 2.8% 72 075 53 160 0.1% 0.738

OCGT 322 2.8% 72 075 53 160 0.1% 0.738

Renewable 144 1.3% 757 253 0 0.0% 0.000 14%

Hydro 144 1.3% 757 253 0 0.0% 0.000

Energy storage 500 4.4% n/a 0 0.0% 0.000

Total 11 382 100% 53 001 280 45 125 208 100% 0.851

Table 10.2: Electricity generation and greenhouse gas emissions by fuel type and installed capacity inQueensland 2007–08Source: DME, 2008 (based on data from NEM Review)

installed capacity in Queensland. Electricity fromcoal- red power stations dominates electricitycapacity, representing nearly 80 per cent ofinstalled capacity. In 2007, gas- red generationaccounted for approximately 14 per cent ofcapacity. Installed capacity from renewablesources accounted for approximately 1.3 per cent ofQueensland’s total in 2007.

Electricity generated from coal- red power stations inQueensland has, on average, more than twice thecarbon intensity of electricity generated from gas. Theaverage emissions intensity of electricity generatedfrom Queensland’s coal- red power stations is 0.913tonnes CO 2-e/MWh, compared with 0.444 tonnesCO2-e/MWh from gas and zero emissions fromrenewable energy generation (DCC, 2008d).

It is forecast that Queensland’s electricitygeneration supply mix will begin to transitiontowards a greater deployment of renewable energy

and gas- red electricity plant by 2020 (DME,2009). This transition will be driven by theQueensland Gas Scheme, the RET and the CPRS.




regulation and legislative uncertainty as a barrier tothe uptake of renewable energy in Queensland.

The Government will provide clarity on issuessuch as land-use planning, native title and royaltyregimes, as well as environmental, noise and visualimpacts, in order to promote Queensland asan attractive location for renewableenergy investments.

Regulatory issues regarding transmission andconnection to the grid have also been seen asserious impediments. As many of these networkissues are regulated through the NationalElectricity Rules, Queensland will take a leadershiprole to in uence the continued development of thenational regulatory framework.

Carbon capture and storagetechnologiesThe development of carbon capture and storagetechnologies could play a signi cant role inreducing emissions from coal- red electricitygenerators. There is a global effort to develop anddemonstrate these technologies to ensure that coalcan continue its signi cant contribution to theworld’s energy needs.

Because of the importance of Queensland’scoal reserves and industry, the government iscommitted to accelerating investments to developand demonstrate carbon capture and storagetechnologies.

GasGas is a vital energy source for Queensland’sstrong industrial and manufacturing sectors.It is also being increasingly used in electricitygeneration and residential use.

Demand for gas in Queensland is met throughnatural gas and coal seam gas reserves.Queensland has around 16 500 petajoulesof proved and probable conventional and coalseam gas reserves. Around three quarters of thegas produced in Queensland is from coal seamgas reserves. Global demand for lique ed naturalgas (LNG) is growing and there are severalproposals to build LNG production and export

facilities at Gladstone.The Queensland Government has identi ed gas asa key fuel source for reducing the greenhouse gasemissions intensity of generating electricity, whileemerging renewable energy sources and carboncapture and storage technologies arebeing developed.

Renewable energy Renewable energy will play an important role inreducing Queensland’s greenhouse gas emissions.Renewable energy technologies which are alreadyavailable have a role to play in diversifyingQueensland’s energy mix. This is likely to includesmall scale solar thermal, wind and biomasscogeneration, all of which are already in operationin parts of Queensland.

Technologies in the renewable energy sector thatwill deliver ‘baseload’ quantities of renewableenergy resources are under active development.Queensland has a strategic advantage with

abundant geothermal and solar resources.The Government is supporting developments, suchas large scale solar thermal, as well as addressingspeci c renewable energy project barriers.

The expanded national RET will increase renewableenergy generation in Australia by over 4 times, toreach 45 000 gigawatt hours by 2020. This willprovide signi cant incentives for renewable energyinvestment in Australia. The QueenslandGovernment will ensure that a signi cant portion ofthis investment comes to Queensland by

positioning the state as an attractive investmentlocation. Industry participants have identi ed




Queensland innovations in carboncapture and storageZeroGen Project

ZeroGen is breaking new ground in thedevelopment of low-emission coal technologiesby demonstrating commercial-scale IntegratedGasi cation Combined Cycle (IGCC) with carboncapture and storage (CCS). The Queensland CleanCoal Council has provided its in-principle supportfor ZeroGen to undertake a Pre-Feasibility Studyand drilling program for the commercial-scaleproject building on the development work andcarbon dioxide storage evaluation workundertaken to date.

The commercial-scale project is an advancementof the earlier two-stage concept to deliver ademonstration plant before moving to acommercial-scale project. This advancement hasbeen made in response to interest by potentialinvestors and the capability of the available plantsuppliers.

The Pre-Feasibility Study will con rm thecon guration and expected costs of thecommercial-scale concept. This project isexpected to have gross output of 530 MW andwhen operating with 65% carbon capture, havenet output of 400MW. Up to 90% carbon capturewill be investigated.

ZeroGen will progress through a number of stagesof project development with the aim of deliveringa commercial-scale IGCC with CCS project as earlyas 2015.

To undertake the Pre-Feasibility Study ZeroGenwill be using funding from the QueenslandGovernment and the Australian Coal Association(ACA) through ACA Low Emissions TechnologiesLtd (ACALET).

This project represents a signi cant opportunityfor international collaboration and investmentand will seek to leverage the CommonwealthGovernment’s proposed CCS Flagships Program,which will provide $2 billion in funding support forthe development of two to four industrial scaleCCS projects.

Callide Oxyfuel Project

During 2008, construction work commenced forone of Queensland’s leading low emissions coal

technology projects–the $206 million CS Energyled Callide Oxyfuel Project at the existing CallideA Power Station in Central Queensland.

The project aims to demonstrate how “oxy ring”technology can be successfully retro tted to anexisting power station to produce near zero-emissions power. Importantly, the project will bethe rst retro t of oxyfuel combustion and CCS toan existing power station in the world.

Oxyfuel, or oxy ring, is an example of post-

combustion capture where coal is burned in amixture of oxygen and exhaust gases, instead ofair. This provides a concentrated stream of carbondioxide which is suitable for capture and storage.

The project was of cially launched 14 November2008. Retro tting has commenced and the plant isscheduled to begin operation in ‘air ring’ mode inearly 2009 and ‘oxy- ring’ mode in mid 2011. Theproject will demonstrate the storage of between15 000 to 30 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide overa three year period commencing in 2011.

The Queensland Government and ACALEThave committed $10 million and $67.9 millionrespectively to the project, which is a jointventure between CS Energy, Xstrata Coal,Schlumberger and a Japanese consortiumcomprising JPower, Mitsui and IHI Corporation.

Carbon Geostorage Initiative

Work is underway on the Carbon GeostorageInitiative (CGI) to identify, characterise andevaluate geological sites that have the potentialfor long-term, safe and secure storage of CO 2 emissions. The Queensland Government andACA have committed $10 million and $20 millionrespectively to the program.

Stage One of the CGI commenced in May 2008and involves a state-wide basin characterisationreview. Stage Two is being conducted in paralleland involves a more detailed review of a numberof prioritised basins. Information from this workin progress will contribute to the identi cation of

storage sites for the ZeroGen and Callide Oxyfueldemonstration projects.




10.4 Impact ofclimate change on

energy services andinfrastructureVariation in rainfall, particularly extended periodsof drought, will have signi cant implications forelectricity generation as Queensland coal- redpower stations require large volumes of water tocool and condense steam.

The recent drought highlighted the vulnerabilityof traditional electricity systems to reduced wateravailability. A number of steps have already beentaken to alleviate this vulnerability including:

The use of air (dry) cooling in coal- red power•stations, requiring around 10 per cent of thewater of a wet-cooled power station.

The wider deployment of gas- red generation.•A combined-cycle gas turbine uses around40 per cent of the water of a wet-cooled turbinewhile open-cycle gas turbines use negligibleamounts of water.

The wider use of renewable energy technologieswill also reduce the impact of reduced wateravailability on the Queensland electricity system.

Increases in temperature, especially dailymaximum temperature levels, will have signi cantimplications for electricity demand, particularlypeak demand, as households and businessesincrease the use of air conditioning systems.Increased electricity demand could drive aneed for network augmentations or upgrades.

More extreme weather events (e.g. cyclones)will have signi cant implications for electricitynetworks, as electricity infrastructure is vulnerableto the effects of extreme wind conditions. As aresult, electricity infrastructure failures will havedirect impacts on communities during extremeweather events because of rising safety issues andthe need to maintain energy services to hospitals(for water pumping, lighting, etc) during disasterand post disaster management.

10.5 Earlier actionsCoal21 FundIn 2007, the Queensland Government enacted

the Clean Coal Technology Special Agreement Act 2007 . The Act established the Coal21 Fund:$900 million over the next 10 years, comprising$300 million from the Queensland Governmentand $600 million from the coal mining industry’svoluntary fund.

The Coal21 Fund was established to accelerate thedevelopment and deployment of carbon captureand storage technologies. In doing so, thegovernment recognised the value of the coalindustry to the state, both in terms of an export

product and as a low cost fuel for electricitygeneration. The government is committed toensuring that the coal industry has a sustainablefuture in the state’s economy.

The Coal21 Fund is managed by Australian CoalAssociation Low Emissions Technologies Limited(ACALET). Participating coal producers have agreedto pay a voluntary levy of 20 cents per tonne ofsaleable coal to the Coal21 Fund.

Clean Coal CouncilA Clean Coal Council (CCC) has been establishedunder the Clean Coal Technology Special Agreement Act 2007 to administer the $900 millionCoal21 Fund and promote the development ofCCS by:

Providing advice on funding priorities, including•sources of private and public funding.

Assessing projects and how much funding they•should receive.

Considering intellectual property issues.•

Co-ordinating the state’s involvement in•international research collaboration.




The CCC has met ve times since it was establishedin June 2007. Recent CCC achievements include:

Recon guration of the ZeroGen Project to•a two-stage development.

Facilitating agreement between the Queensland•Government and the coal industry to commitfunding to the Callide Oxyfuel Project.

Progression of the Carbon Geostorage Initiative,•which will assess the geological storagepotential of Queensland.

To date, the CCC has contributed to thecommitment of up to $236.5 million of Coal21funds for clean coal technology projectsin Queensland.

While these projects are located in Queensland,they are projects of national signi cance in terms ofAustralia’s contribution to the global effort ofclimate change mitigation.

These projects also represent a key focus ofQueensland Government efforts to encourageeffective scienti c and research collaborationswith other countries pursuing low emission coaltechnology such as the United States of America,China, Japan and India.

Carbon Geostorage InitiativeThe application of clean coal technology relieson the ability to store captured carbon dioxide.For this reason the Queensland Governmentrecently announced the commencement of Stage 1of a Carbon Geostorage Initiative (CGI) to providea state-wide assessment of prospective geologicalsites as potential storage for carbon dioxide.

ACALET has also committed $20 million to the CGI.

The CGI is a two-stage program aimed at collectingpre-competitive geoscience data.

Stage 1 is a geological assessment of allsedimentary basins in Queensland to determine

their potential for carbon dioxide storage. The nalreport will be completed in August 2009. This willprovide a basis for identifying gaps in knowledgeand for developing a plan to ll the knowledge gaps.

Stage 2 is focused on basins that have potentialfor storage. The most prospective portions of thesebasins are being identi ed and a work plan isbeing developed to better de ne the prospects.The data collected will be available in the publicdomain to enable industry to further characterisestorage sites.

Queensland Gas SchemeGenerating electricity using natural gasproduces more than 50 per cent lower emissionsthan conventional coal- red electricity generation.

Since the Queensland Gas Scheme (QGS) beganoperating in January 2005, Queensland electricityretailers and large electricity users have beenrequired to source at least 13 per cent of theirelectricity from gas- red generators. Building on

the success of the QGS, the target has beenincreased to 15 per cent by 2010 with the provisionto increase it to 18 per cent by 2020 to provideadditional lower-emission energy generationfor Queensland.

The QGS has resulted in increased privateinvestment interest for gas- red generation,particularly in south-west Queensland—there arecurrently 1 375 MW of committed private gas- redgeneration projects.

The Queensland Government will considertransitioning out of the QGS when the bene ts ofthe CPRS are broadly equivalent to that of the18 per cent QGS.

10 per cent Renewable and LowEmission Energy TargetThe 10 per cent Renewable and Low EmissionEnergy Target was a key Queensland Governmentpolicy commitment in ClimateSmart 2050 .

However, it has been superceded by the newnational 20 per cent RET and therefore will notbe implemented.




Queensland RenewableEnergy FundThe $50 million Queensland Renewable Energy

Fund (QREF) supports the development anddeployment of renewable energy generationtechnologies in Queensland. The QREF waslaunched on 18 February 2008.

The QREF provides funding support to competitivefunding rounds for proposals that are beyond‘proof of concept’ to assist with demonstrationand commercialisation.

Approximately $22 million from the QREF hasalready been allocated to projects to lay the

foundation for Queensland’s clean energy future.This includes $7.5 million funding for the CSIRO’sSolarGas One Project and $7.5 million to supportthe Queensland Geothermal Centre of Excellence.

Solar Bonus Scheme(feed-in tariff)The Solar Bonus Scheme is a feed-in tariff forexcess electricity generated by solar photovoltaic(PV) systems and exported to the grid. The Solar

Bonus of 44 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) is paidfor electricity fed into the grid at any time the

customer’s electricity use is less than the solarpanel is producing. As of April 2009, over 4 200Queensland households had signed up to the SolarBonus Scheme.

Solar Atlas and SolarScholarshipsThe Queensland Government has entered intoa $680 000 joint venture with the VictorianGovernment to develop a solar atlas to assistcompanies looking for suitable locations for solarpower generation.

The atlas will involve detailed radiation imagingto map solar gradients, identifying the bestpossible locations for solar energy generationand will be aligned with electricity transmissionand network infrastructure.

The joint venture will also fund six scholarshipsof up to $30 000 each for Australian solar thermalenergy researchers or industry participants toundertake three-month internships with leadingAmerican or European solar thermal rms.The scholarships are intended to encourageQueensland’s ‘best and brightest’ to turn theirminds to solar energy.

Windorah solar farmErgon Energy (a Queensland Government-ownedCorporation), is investing $4.6 million inQueensland’s rst solar farm at Windorah in thestate’s south-west. The Windorah project willincorporate ve 35 kW concentrated photovoltaicdishes producing up to 114 kW of electricity. Thisproject will signi cantly reduce diesel generation,replacing up to 100 000 litres of diesel andreducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to

350 tonnes a year.

Geothermal legislationQueensland was the rst Australian state toenact speci c legislation for the development ofgeothermal energy. The Geothermal Exploration Act2004 and the Geothermal Exploration Regulation Act 2005 have regulated the exploration ofgeothermal resources for parties interested indeveloping geothermal energy generation projects.

As a second step, new legislation covering bothexploration and geothermal energy productionis currently being developed.




To further encourage the geothermal industry,the Queensland Government has:

Committed $15 million over ve years to the•Queensland Geothermal Centre of Excellence,

in collaboration with the University ofQueensland. The centre will focus on theenergy derived from subterranean “hot rocks”.

Issued Queensland’s rst permit for geothermal•exploration on 1 May 2008. Other permits areexpected to be approved subject to pendingapplication processes.

Funded an exploration program that recently•uncovered the Millungera Basin—a potentialclean energy basin, located 100 kilometres eastof Cloncurry in north-west Queensland.

Callide to Gladstone GasPipeline Corridor The Queensland Government has committed up to$30 million to buy the corridor for an undergroundgas pipeline from the gas elds at Callide to theport at Gladstone, where a $35 billion LNG plant isproposed by Australia Paci c LNG. Up to 5 000construction jobs could be created in the largestcoal seam gas to lique ed natural gas project yetproposed in Australia.

ZeroGen—A smarter, cleanerenergy future The ZeroGen Project is at the forefront ofglobal efforts to lead coal-based powergeneration towards a low-emission future.The project is developing one of the world’s

rst commercial-scale coal gasi cation powerplants that captures and stores carbon dioxide

(CO2 ) emissions by 2015.

Queensland is heavily reliant on greenhouseintensive energy sources, particularly electricitysourced from coal- red power stations.Stationary energy accounted for nearly40 per cent of Queensland’s greenhouse gasemissions in 2007.

The ZeroGen Project is integrating thetechnologies of Integrated Gasi cationCombined Cycle (IGCC) with Carbon Captureand Storage (CCS) to produce low-emissionbaseload electricity from coal.

ZeroGen plans to develop a commercial-scaleIGCC power plant that captures CO 2 for safestorage underground. A 400 megawatt plantcould supply around 250 000 homes withlow-emission baseload electricity. In termsof CO2 emission reductions, this is equivalent

to taking around 450 000 cars off the roadeach year.




10.6 Results of community consultationIn September 2008 an Issues Paper, Review of Queensland’s Climate Change Strategies , was released forpublic consultation. It outlined issues and challenges for each of Queensland’s key sectors and soughtfeedback on a number of speci c questions.

Almost 75 per cent of public consultation submissions received from stakeholders responded to the IssuesPaper’s questions relating to energy. The following table outlines the key themes in the submissions andhow the Queensland Government is responding.

1. What conditions should be attached before any new coal- red generation is approvedin Queensland?

What did the community say?Some groups believe the transition into an ETS will be a suf cient market mechanism to drive•carbon reduction; therefore no conditions would be required on any new coal- red facilities.

Some submissions argued that new coal- red facilities should not be constructed until CCS is•proven. Once proven, any new coal- red power stations should have CCS incorporated into designand construction, and existing facilities should be retro- tted.

Others were opposed to the construction of any new coal- red facilities.•

Regarding conditions for new facilities apart from CCS, most comments focused on requiring•proponents to offset their greenhouse gas emissions as well as environmental andcommunity impacts.

How is the government responding?In 2007, the• ClimateSmart 2050 strategy set out a number of conditions under which investments innew coal- red generation would be supported.

Since then, a better understanding of the impacts of climate change, Commonwealth Government•commitments to introduce the CPRS and RET, and signi cant investments in demonstrating carboncapture and storage technologies around Australia provide the opportunity for Queensland torealign its approach to new coal- red power generation and position it for the future.

To support the transition of the energy sector towards a low carbon future and equip it to take•advantage of the opportunities presented, the government has revised the conditions on newcoal- red electricity generation.

No new coal red power station will be approved in Queensland unless:•

It uses worlds best practice low emission technology in order to achieve the lowest possiblea.levels of emissions; and

It is carbon capture and storage (CCS) ready and will retro t that technology within ve years ofb.CCS being proven on a commercial scale.

Note: in Queensland “CCS ready” means that the proponent must demonstrate plans and•milestones for incorporation of CCS.






4. What should the Queensland Government do to attract investment in renewable energygeneration in Queensland, what are the barriers to investment, and how could theybe addressed?

What did the community say?This question received the most responses, with more than 50 per cent responding.•

Submissions largely focused on the need for the government to provide nancial support for•research and development of renewable energies.

There was strong support for incentives such as rebates and amendments to current domestic•feed-in tariffs to facilitate the uptake of renewable energy among consumers.

There was support for decentralising energy generation, supply and transmission to better leverage•renewable resources and further develop Queensland’s renewable energy industries.

There was also support for strengthening renewable energy targets to drive investment.•

How is the government responding?The government’s Queensland Renewable Energy Plan provides a framework to increase the•proportion of the State’s electricity capacity derived from Queensland-based renewable sources.

The Plan provides a comprehensive economic and industry development strategy aimed at•accelerating the expansion of the renewable energy sector in Queensland.

Some of the key initiatives that make up the Plan include:•

The Queensland Solar Hot Water Program.•

Regulatory review aimed at simplifying the business, regulatory and planning environment for•renewable energy projects in Queensland.

Development of an industry action plan to increase investment, stimulate the development of•new products and create up to 3500 new green jobs in Queensland.




5. What are the barriers to energy ef ciency in Queensland and how could they beaddressed?

What did the community say?A broadly held view was that the upfront cost of infrastructure and a lack of information remain•the two key barriers to energy ef ciency.

Education and incentives were identi ed as ways to overcome the barriers.•

Industry responses generally called for greater consistency in policy, streamlined reporting and•elimination of duplication, especially relating to auditing and reporting.

How is the government responding?While the CPRS will increase the cost of energy, there is widespread recognition that the CPRS alone•is unlikely to drive signi cant investment in energy ef ciency or energy consumption behaviourchange in the short to medium term. This is despite the fact that investment in energy ef ciency

usually has a very rapid payback period and provides ongoing savings.Additional incentives and policies are required to raise awareness of the bene ts of energy•ef ciency and overcome obstacles to investment.

The Queensland Government’s SmartEnergy Savings Program, which took effect from 1 July 2009,•aims to drive energy saving improvements in large businesses by requiring large energy users toundertake energy audits, prepare energy ef ciency plans and report progress.

The SmartEnergy Savings Fund, launched in 2008, is a $50 million fund to support small and•medium-sized businesses make investments in energy ef ciency.

ClimateQ• builds on these with a range of new initiatives to increase energy ef ciency, includingmeasures to increase energy ef ciency in residential buildings and commercial facilities and

introducing a ClimateSmart Business Service.




6. What are the opportunities to reduce the growth in energy demand in Queensland?

What did the community say?There was broad agreement that reducing energy demand could be achieved through point-of-sale•mechanisms targeted at the domestic market including:

Improving the labelling of household appliances.•

Providing information on energy ef ciency and the cost of running an appliance.•

Regulating which appliances can be sold based on energy ef ciency standards.•

There was also support for real time metering and charging users for the ‘real’ cost of electricity;•that is the cost of generation, transmission and infrastructure upgrade.

Education and incentives were also supported to facilitate behavioural change.•

How is the government responding?

The Energy Conservation and Demand Management Program in• ClimateQ is a package of newinitiatives that includes energy management options for residential appliances, commercial andindustrial demand management trials of reward-based tariffs and community-scale energyconservation measures.

The government will also develop an Electricity Demand Management Regulation for electricity•distributors. The regulation will require electricity distributors to investigate, report on, andimplement demand management strategies.

7. How could Queensland reduce the growth in demand for electricity associated with theincreased use of air conditioners?

What did the community say?Stakeholders commented that electricity demand associated with air conditioning can be reduced•by mandating the following initiatives:

Design and building standards that better address thermal dynamics.•

Installation of roof insulation prior to air conditioner purchase.•

Installation of solar panels to offset the energy used by the air conditioner.•

Energy ef ciency labelling of air conditioners at the point of purchase.•

The idea of a separate ‘air conditioning’ tariff was also raised.•

How is the government responding?Many of the initiatives outlined in• Chapter 12 ‘Planning and building – tools to minimise climatechange impacts ’ relate to improving the thermal design and construction of buildings to reducethe demand for air conditioners and associated energy.

Additionally, the residential initiatives of the Energy Conservation and Demand Management•Program will help reduce the growth in demand for electricity associated with air conditioner use byproviding individuals with energy management and conservation education and options.




10.7 Recent and newinitiativesEnergy Conservation andDemand Management ProgramIncreasing customer energy demand is drivingsubstantial investment in electricity infrastructurein Queensland. For example, the State Governmentis investing $9 billion in electricity networks in the

ve years from 2005 to 2010.

As announced in the 2009–10 State Budget, theQueensland Government will invest $47.7 million in

an energy conservation and demand managementdemonstration program to reduce the growth inenergy demand, particularly in periods of peak use.

Reducing growth in energy use will decrease theneed to expand or upgrade the electricity network.This will translate into more affordable electricityand lowered greenhouse gas emissions.

In collaboration with electricity distributors Energexand Ergon Energy, the program will deliver a rangeof initiatives across the residential and commercialsectors, including:

Providing residential customers with energy•management options for major appliances toreduce energy use in peak times.

Collaborating with industry to deliver end-use•energy conservation and demand managementsolutions such as more ef cient air conditioningor fuel switching.

Investigating the use of reward-based tariffs•that reward customers for managing their

energy use at peak times.These initiatives aim to demonstrate the extent towhich demand management can reduce growth inpeak electricity demand and provide savings infuture energy infrastructure costs. This willultimately save money for the taxpayer and theelectricity customer. The initiatives will also reduceenergy consumption which will mitigategreenhouse gas emissions.

The outcomes of these initiatives will inform the

development of future demand managementinitiatives. Should this demonstration program besuccessful and the measures be applied more

broadly by Energex and Ergon across the network,billions of dollars in savings and signi cantgreenhouse gas reductions could be realised overthe next ten years.

Clean Energy for RemoteCommunitiesMany remote communities in Western Queensland,Cape York, and the Torres Strait Islands rely almostentirely on diesel fuel for electricity generation.In 2007, the power stations supplying thesecommunities consumed 28 million litres of fuel andreleased over 75 000 tonnes of greenhouse gasesemissions.

As announced in the 2009–10 State Budget, theClean Energy Strategy for Remote Communities willchange the way energy is supplied and used withinthese isolated networks over the next ve yearsand beyond. Initially, $5 million has been allocatedto trial energy ef ciency and energy conservationinitiatives in selected communities, and explorerenewable energy options.




Pilot projects in Thursday Island, Horn Island andthe Northern Peninsula Area will include:

Free energy consultations to all customers in•the pilot communities focussing on air

conditioning, lighting, water and refrigeration. Upgrading household lighting and improving•water ef ciency.

Education for all communities on energy use•and energy savings.

Working with local schools and teachers to•include an energy ef ciency component in theschool curricula.

Engaging experts in building design to establish•best practice energy and water ef ciency

speci cations for these locations. Providing incentives to local businesses to•stock and promote energy ef cient products.

Exploring how renewable energy could be•deployed in local communities.

The implementation of these measures aims toreduce total electricity consumption by 20 per cent,representing annual savings to residentialcustomers of up to $300 each.

If successful, the Clean Energy Strategy will berolled out to other remote communities that rely ondiesel power stations.

Queensland RenewableEnergy PlanLaunched by the Premier in June 2009, theQueensland Renewable Energy Plan outlines aclear and comprehensive road map for theexpansion of the renewable energy sector inQueensland—focussing on facilitating the

deployment of a range of renewable energyalternatives throughout the state while creatingnew employment, new industries and newinvestment opportunities.

Importantly, the Queensland Renewable EnergyPlan provides the framework to increase theproportion of the state’s electricity capacity derivedfrom Queensland-based renewable sources andensure that Queensland maximises investmentresulting from the national RenewableEnergy Target.

The Plan aims to leverage up to $3.5 billion in newinvestment, create up to 3 500 new jobs andreduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than40 million tonnes.

The Plan proposes a number of new initiatives.These include:

The Queensland Solar Hot Water Program to•substantially increase the number of unitsinstalled on Queensland households.

Encouraging the deployment of multiple•small-scale solar thermal plants in regionalQueensland and undertaking a large-scale solarthermal feasibility study.

Advancing geothermal technology through•

legislation to fast-track developments andinvestigating a large-scale demonstrationproject.

Deploying small scale renewable systems in•Queensland’s remote isolated networks totransition these communities from a reliance ondiesel generation.

Government Owned Generators partnering with•industry to identify renewable energy solutions.

Promoting clean energy communities by•encouraging energy conservation and theuptake of renewable energy solutions inQueensland’s growth hot spots.

Delivering a regulatory reform package to•simplify the business, regulatory and planningenvironment in Queensland for renewableenergy projects.

Amending the• Land Act 1994 to enable lesseesto sublease to wind farms and other renewableenergy projects.




Mapping Queensland’s solar, wind and•geothermal resources and making these mapspublicly available.

Designating renewable energy as a Queensland•

Priority Industry Sector, supported by aRenewable Energy Industry Development Planthat will encompass:

The Clean Energy Jobs Policy—aiming to•create 3 500 jobs by 2020

Pilot Renewable Energy Priority Zones•

Renewable Energy Incentives Package•

Renewable Energy Technology and•Innovation Strategy.

For more information about the QueenslandRenewable Energy Plan, visit the Of ce of CleanEnergy’s website at www.cleanenergy.qld.gov.au

Conditions for new coal- redgenerationIn 2007, the ClimateSmart 2050 strategy set out anumber of conditions under which investments innew coal- red generation would be supported.

Since then, a better understanding of the impactsof climate change, Commonwealth Governmentcommitments to introduce the CPRS and RET, andsigni cant investments in demonstrating carboncapture and storage technologies around Australiaprovide the opportunity for Queensland to realignits approach to new coal- red power generationand position it for the future.

To support the transition of the energy sectortowards a low carbon future and equip it to takeadvantage of the opportunities presented, thegovernment has revised the conditions on newcoal- red electricity generation.

No new coal red power station will be approved inQueensland unless:

It uses worlds best practice low emissiona.technology in order to achieve the lowestpossible levels of emissions; and

It is carbon capture and storage (CCS) ready andb.will retro t that technology within ve years ofCCS being proven on a commercial scale.

(Note: in Queensland “CCS ready” means that theproponent must demonstrate plans and milestonesfor incorporation of CCS).

Electricity DemandManagement RegulationElectricity peak demand, which occurs during peak

usage times, such as in the mornings andparticularly the evenings, is a major driver ofinvestment in electricity infrastructure. Reducingoverall electricity use and shifting electricity usefrom peak periods to times when the electricitynetwork has spare capacity has multiple bene ts. Itreduces the need for new investment in networkexpansion which helps manage the rate ofelectricity price rises, and can reduce electricity useand associated greenhouse gas emissions.

In recognition of these bene ts, the Queensland

Government has introduced demand managementplanning and reporting obligations for Queenslandelectricity distributors. Through an amendment tothe Electricity Regulation 2006, this initiativerequires each distributor to submit annual demandmanagement plans from 2009-10.

This obligation will compel distributors to identifyand exploit demand management opportunities. Itwill also enable the Queensland Government tomake recommendations based upon the demandmanagement strategies submitted by theelectricity distributors.

The demand management plans may include broadrange of measures such as offering householdsand businesses energy management options andincentives, and targeting household applianceslike air conditioners and pool pumps whichcontribute disproportionately to peak demand.






Queensland businesses and industries contribute direct and indirect greenhouse gas•emissions, mainly through industrial processes and stationary energy use. Theindustrial sector accounted for more than 31 per cent of Queensland’s overall emissionsin 2007 and more than 10 per cent of Australia’s total.

Long-term projections of economic growth in the sector, and the state’s reliance on carbon-•intensive energy sources, means that Queensland industries’ emissions are projected toincrease signi cantly.

Queensland’s economy is at risk from the effects of climate change. Climate change•

impacts on Queensland’s business and industry include both the physical impacts ofclimate change and the adjustment required to move Queensland’s economy towardsa carbon-constrained future.

Opportunities for Queensland businesses include a range of new, greenhouse-friendly•business possibilities, along with the opportunity to increase competitiveness bymaking ef ciencies and reducing costs associated with energy, water and waste.

The increasing price of carbon over time under the CPRS will provide a driver for•abatement. Queensland businesses must act early to buffer themselves from the adverseimpacts of climate change and avoid cost increases. Many abatement actions result insigni cant cost savings.

The Queensland Government will work with industry to create a sector that is high• growth, but low carbon.

11.Queensl and business—a new operating climate




11.1 ContextWhile Queensland businesses stand to be among themost affected by climate change, the state is well-positioned to take early action, make cost savingsand exploit the commercial opportunities.

ForClimateQ, the industrial sector is de ned ascomprising all Queensland businesses, except thoseinvolved in stationary energy generation, agriculturalproduction and transport, which are dealt with inother chapters. Therefore, this chapter encompasses:

mining •manufacturing •wholesale and retail trade•communication services•building and construction•tourism•

nance•insurance•property and•business services.•

The contribution of the industrial sector toQueensland is enormous. It employs over 1 millionQueenslanders and contributed nearly $100 billionto the Queensland economy in the 2007–08

nancial year (ABS, 2008c). Mining andmanufacturing alone contributed more than$37 billion to the Queensland economy in 2007–08in Gross State Product terms. Together, theygenerated 3.6 per cent of Australia’s grossdomestic product in 2007–08 (ABS, 2008c).Queensland industry supports many regionaltowns and communities both directly through localemployment and indirectly through higher levels ofeconomic activity.

11.2 Greenhousegas emissions

from Queensland’sindustrial sector The state’s industrial sector is a signi cantcontributor to greenhouse gas emissions,accounting for more than 31 per cent of the state’soverall emissions in 2007 and more than10 per cent of Australia’s total (DCC, 2009b).

11.2.1 Emissions fromelectricity consumptionGreenhouse gas emissions from Queenslandindustries are largely indirect, comprised mainly ofelectricity consumption. In 2007, electricity usage bythe mining, manufacturing and commercial servicessectors (including construction) accounted forapproximately 54 per cent of total emissionsfrom the generation of purchased electricity(DCC, 2009b). The emissions intensity ofQueensland’s electricity supply is among thehighest in the OECD, because most of the energyconsumed by industries comes from burning fossilfuels, particularly coal (Garnaut, 2008b).

Some Queensland industries such as non-ferrousmetal production (e.g. aluminium, zinc and copper)are extremely electricity-intensive (ABARE, 2008).

11.2.2 Other emissionsElectricity consumption is not the only contributorto greenhouse gases from this sector. Manyindustries use coal, natural gas or oil products asfuel for their processes, which emit carbon dioxide.Some industrial processes, such as those used toproduce cement and lime, emit carbon dioxidedirectly, as well as from fuel burning. Wastemanagement using land ll, and mining release‘fugitive’ emissions, primarily methane, directlyinto the atmosphere. Other potent greenhousegases—including nitrous oxide andchloro uorocarbons—can be released in smallamounts by various industrial processes.




11.3 Impacts of achanging climate on

Queensland industry The direct effects of climate change will impact onQueensland’s businesses in a range of ways. Climatechange is expected to result in increased variability ofrainfall, rise in average temperatures, sea-level riseand an increase in extreme weather events (refer toChapters 4 and 5).

Climate-sensitive industries such as tourism,mining and insurance will be directly affected byclimate change in the medium term. Over the

longer term, most industries will feel the effects.The reliability of energy and water could change inthe future, with vulnerability increasing in areaswhere there are competing demands. Changes inextreme events could increase interruptions tothe supply of raw materials and the transportof products.

11.3.1 Impacts on economicgrowth

The Garnaut Review estimated that by 2100, theimpacts of unmitigated climate change will reduceAustralia’s GDP by 8 per cent and GNP by 9 per cent(Garnaut, 2008b). The impact on Queensland’seconomy is expected to be even greater. TheGarnaut Review stated that key Australian exportmarkets are projected to have signi cantly lowereconomic activity as a result of climate change andthis is likely to feed back into considerably lowerAustralian export prices and terms of trade(Garnaut, 2008a).

The Garnaut Review stated that climate change willbegin to have material effects on internationaleconomies from about 2050. By 2100, theeconomic impacts of climate change are expectedto have increased substantially, with global GDPprojected to fall by 7.3 per cent, relative to a “noclimate change” scenario. The economic impactson developing countries are projected to be greaterthan the global average. This is important forAustralia, since developing countries’ demand forits exports would otherwise have been expected togrow rapidly. Australia’s terms of trade areprojected to deteriorate by about 3 per cent by2100 due to climate change impacts on the

demand for Australian products (Garnaut, 2008b).Mining is particularly vulnerable and is estimatedto decline by about 13 per cent by 2100. Forexample, The Garnaut Review estimates that globaldemand for coal will decline by 23 per cent by 2100under an unmitigated climate change scenario(Garnaut, 2008b).

11.3.2 Impacts on business andinfrastructureThe Garnaut Review commissioned a series ofexperts to advise on the impacts of climate changeon infrastructure generally and on speci c sectorsof the Australian economy. Four categories ofimplications were: buildings in coastalsettlements; electricity distribution andtransmission networks; water supply infrastructurein major cities; and port infrastructure andoperations. Speci c implications associated withclimate change include (Maunsell, 2008):

Increased commercial property damage.•

Increased corrosion.•

Increased cost of insurance claims/cover.•

Increased maintenance, repair and replacement•of commercial buildings.

Increased maintenance, repair and replacement•of industrial facilities, such as re neries.

Reduction in capacity of businesses to operate•due to property damage.

Reduction of the use of buildings and facilities•due to inundation, ooding, ground movementand structural integrity.

Increased number and length of blackouts•resulting in business losses.

Building services disruptions, including•elevators.

Increased utilities costs for business and•potentially decreased utilities availability.

Increased frequency and length of port closures•leading to decreased productivity.

Increased costs of trade due to shipping•import/export and storage delays.

Increased costs associated with loss of goods•connected to rain and wind damage; loss ofperishables due to inadequate storage capacity.






Anglo Coal Australia—coal waste powers greenhouse reductionsAnglo Coal Australia (ACA) has developed an innovative method of using coal seam methane gas to generateelectricity at one of its Bowen Basin mines and signi cantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Methane gas is frequently found in coal seams as a result of natural geological processes. However,when it is released into the atmosphere its effect is 21 times worse than carbon dioxide.

To minimise the environmental impact of coal seam methane gas, ACA is using it to generate electricityfrom its Grasstree coal mine at German Creek. The electricity is used onsite and is fed directly into theQueensland grid, utilising 16 two-megawatt power generation modules and generating approximately200 gigawatt hours of power annually.

From 2008, it is estimated that approximately 900 000 tonnes of greenhouse gases will be abatedannually through this action. This is equivalent to taking over 250 000 cars off the road or planting1.6 million hardwood trees.

ACA is constructing a similar electricity project at Moranbah. This project will capture even moremethane gas and is expected to reduce emissions by a further 1.4 million tonnes per year.




Under the CPRS the liability for purchasing permitswill rest with certain parties. Some industries willbe able to pass this cost to customers quickly andcompletely. Other industries, such as electricitygeneration may not be able to pass on the full costto remain competitive.

Exacerbating the increasing costs of energy will beow-on effects of climate change, which will tend

to increase the demand for energy. The projectedtrend towards hotter, drier climates is likely tocause increased demand for air-conditioning anddesalination. A drier climate will also impact onproduction of timber and natural bres, andincrease reliance on energy-intensive buildingmaterials (such as steel, cement and aluminium).

11.4.1 Queensland’semissions-intensive,trade-exposed industriesQueensland rms competing in internationalmarkets have a limited capacity to pass on costincreases to the consumer. Without appropriateassistance, and in the absence of a globalagreement on greenhouse gas emissions which

‘levels the playing eld’, the CPRS has the potentialto affect both the pro tability of existing industriesand Queensland’s competitiveness as adestination for future investment.

The Commonwealth Government’s proposedassistance package for emissions-intensivetrade-exposed (EITE) industries is important to helpminimise the economic impact of the CPRS onQueensland EITEs.

11.4.2 Non-EITE industriesThe Commonwealth Government has also proposed aClimate Change Action Fund (CCAF) which will providetargeted assistance to businesses, community sectororganisations, workers, regions and communities tohelp transition to a carbon-constrained economy.

The fund (CCAF) will allocate $2.75 billion over veyears commencing in 2008–09 and will provideopportunities for Queensland companies to adapt tothe CPRS through better information on how to

minimise nancial impacts, investment in energyef ciency and low emission technologies, andstructural adjustment for workers and communities.

The Commonwealth’s proposedassistance to Emissions-IntensiveTrade-Exposed industriesEligibility for EITE assistance will be based onthe industry-wide weighted average emissionsintensity, or emissions per unit of production,of an activity. This determines the ‘allocativebaseline’ of an activity.

There are two levels of assistance:90 per cent of the allocative baseline for•activities that have an emissions intensityabove 2000 t CO 2-e/$million revenue or6000 t CO 2-e/$million value added in the

speci ed assessment period.60 per cent of the allocative baseline for•activities that have an emissions intensitybetween 1000 and 1999 t CO 2-e/$millionrevenue or between 3000 and 5999 tCO2-e/$million value added in the speci edassessment period.

Global Recession Buffer:

EITEs will receive extra assistance for the•rst ve years of the scheme through the

application of a Global Recession Buffer.This means that in the rst year of thescheme, industries eligible for 60 per centassistance will receive 66 per cent, andindustries eligible for 90 per centassistance will receive 94.5 per centassistance for baseline emissions.

These rates of assistance will reduce by•1.3 per cent per year to ensure that EITEactivities contribute to the nationalobjective of reducing emissions over time.

EITE assistance will be subject to ve-yearlyreviews to determine whether modi cationsneed to be made to re ect changedcircumstances such as an international priceon carbon, a comprehensive internationalagreement involving Australia and all majoremitting economies, or windfall gains toindustries.

The assistance package is expected to beworth $1.2 billion in 2011-12 and $3.6 billion in

2012-13.(Source: DCC 2008a, 2009f)




The Commonwealth Government has also proposedan Australian Carbon Trust to support further energyef ciency action by business. The Australian CarbonTrust will provide $50 million seed funding to anEnergy Ef ciency Trust that will provide loans tobusiness for energy ef ciency projects from July2009. Upfront investments will be repaid throughenergy savings, creating an ongoing source of loanfunds.

Coal mining The coal mining sector is expected to be faced withdual challenges as a result of the introduction of acarbon price—both in cost, through its liability foremissions, and reduced demand for coal.

Under the CPRS, the Queensland coal miningindustry will not be eligible for EITE assistance.

To assist the coal industry adjust to the impact of theCPRS, the Commonwealth Government will provide$500 million for existing mines with very highfugitive emissions, and $250 million to promoteemissions abatement and innovative technology toreduce emissions.

Tourism

The overwhelming majority of businesses involvedin tourism are not expected to have a direct liabilityunder the CPRS and will not be entitled toassistance as an EITE industry.

However, the tourism industry will be impacted byhigher business costs under the CRPS, particularlyfor fuel and electricity. The international exposureof many tourist operators in Queensland may limitthe capacity of businesses to pass them on to

consumers. These effects will be exacerbated asthe direct impacts of climate change affect theattractiveness of Queensland as atourist destination.

The Queensland Government recognises theimportance of supporting greater energy ef ciencywithin the industry to minimise the nancialimpacts of the CPRS.

The Queensland Government’s new ClimateSmartBusiness Service and the Commonwealth’s ClimateChange Action Fund (CCAF) will provide twokey sources of transitional assistance for thetourism industry.

Small to medium enterprisesThe majority of Queensland businesses will not berequired to buy carbon permits, but willnonetheless face risks and opportunities as aresult of the effects of a carbon price on theirsupply chain.

Small and medium-sized companies that dependon energy, transport and logistics could face thefollowing impacts:

Cost increases (energy, transport and•

emissions-intensive inputs).Supply chain pressures (up and downstream•and administration).

Increasing consumer demand for products and•services with low or reduced emissions.

Changes to supply and marketing costs according•to regional location and market destination.

Prior to the introduction of the CPRS, all businessesneed to consider the following:

Consumer sentiments and demand from supply•chain clients.

Operating ef ciency of existing technologies•and processes, and the need to adopt newapproaches to reduce energy consumption.

New markets for low emission products•and services.

Changes to industry, regional and macro•economic growth rates.

Initiatives such as the ClimateSmart Business

Service and Carbon Outlook will supportsmall-to-medium sized companies reduce theirenergy consumption and costs.




11.5 Challenges toreducing industry

emissionsThere are obstacles that can inhibit action to reduceemissions in the industrial sector. Some of theseobstacles are physical, some are institutional andsome are operational.

The capacity of Queensland industry to reduceemissions will vary sector by sector and withinsectors. Some industrial processes may already benear best practice or have intrinsic greenhouse gasgenerating activities that cannot be made moreef cient using current or emerging technologies.

Waste management at land ll sites producesemissions, which are also dif cult to measure,although opportunities will exist under the CPRS forcost-effective methane capture and use for co-generation.

While there is considerable scope for makingsigni cant greenhouse gas emissions savings byimplementing industry energy ef ciency measures,a range of factors may combine to cause industry tounder-invest in this area. This may be the caseeven under a strong carbon price signal.Factors include:

The relatively low cost of energy, particularly as•a proportion of total costs in averageAustralian industries.

A lack of awareness of available ef ciency•options. (This is rarely a lack of raw information,but rather a lack of processed or appliedinformation relevant to the diverse situations ofindustrial energy users).

A shortage of skilled engineers and• technicians to design and install energyef ciency infrastructure.

Opportunity costs of capital and managerial•focus in the business, leading to availablecapital budgets being devoted to productivecapacity and labour productivity improvements,rather than energy cost savings (even if theseoffer high rates of return).

Capital investment cycles and the rapid rate of•technological development, which means that

even state-of-the-art investments can fallbehind an ef ciency frontier before the end oftheir economic life.

Risks associated with replacing productive•equipment with new technology.

A lack of consideration of systemic process•changes and a tendency to con ne innovations

to marginal changes. This, in part, re ects thelack of appropriate skills in industrial designand process engineering within industrial rmsand the supporting energy services sector.

Awareness by industry of the implications ofemissions trading and carbon price is critical forearly preparation. Surveys have indicated that onlya very small percentage of small to mediumenterprises are aware of the effect of the CPRS andthe corresponding impact on their operationsand pro ts.

In its report Growing the Green Collar Economy , theCSIRO found that achieving the transition to a lowcarbon sustainable economy will require a “massivemobilisation of skills and training”, to equip newworkers and change existing work practices(Hat eld-Dodds et al., 2008).




Bunnings’ real sustainability actionsAs the leading retailer in home improvement and outdoor living and a major supplier of buildingmaterials in Australia, Bunnings is committed to reducing its environmental impact.

During 2007/08, Bunnings pursued signi cant water saving initiatives in Queensland with theinstallation of rainwater harvesting equipment at 17 store locations.

The investment made it possible for hand watering to replace more traditional irrigation systems inmany store nurseries, as of June 2008. Results from this key water-saving measure saw the Logan CityCouncil contact the Underwood store in October, to question the sharp reduction in their average dailywater usage, which had dropped from 9720 litres in the April–June Quarter, to 640 litres in the July–Sept Quarter. The signi cant saving demonstrated that real results are achievable with an ongoingcommitment to water-saving behaviour.

Bunnings stores have also continued to work in conjunction with regional and state water authoritiesacross Queensland to provide in store information and waterwise education to help local communitiesadopt long-term, water-saving measures.

Bunnings is committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2015 and during 2007/2008 achieved a13 per cent reduction in net carbon dioxide emissions per hundred thousand dollars of revenue inQueensland. This equates to 2.93 tonnes of CO2-e/$100k of sales, compared to 3.4 tonnes ofCO2-e/$100k of sales in 2006/2007.

An additional focus on improving waste reduction and recycling rates has provided outstanding resultsin Queensland with an annual diversion rate of 72 per cent against a national average of approx25 per cent.




11.6 Preparing for theeffects of climate

changeClimate change is a global issue, so adaptationdecisions and emerging opportunities will need tobe built on an understanding of how Queenslandbusinesses and industries are affected, comparedto what is happening around Australia and the restof the world.

Actions that businesses can implement include:Working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions•across the full life cycle of goods, products

and services.Decreasing water use.•

Incorporating climate change considerations•into business planning and decisions.

Considering water ef ciency and energy when•leasing, building or renovating premises.

Developing new products, technologies or•services that use substantially less energyor water and/or adapt to the effects ofclimate change.

Exploring new business opportunities.•

Adaptation options will depend on localcircumstances, as well as changes in national andinternational demand for goods and services.Innovative and exible management will enablebusiness people to quickly adjust and make themost of emerging opportunities. Adapting toclimate change will mean every business ownerhas to understand how the impacts affect theirbusiness both now and into the future, and

planning and building skills to reduce any risk.

11.7 Opportunities forQueensland businessEarly action will not only build the resilience ofbusiness to withstand the impacts of climatechange, but new business opportunities may beidenti ed and signi cant savings can be realised.

Signi cant reductions in energy usage in most ofQueensland’s industries, including resourceindustries, can be achieved on a relatively low-cost

basis. The Queensland MACC demonstrates inthose large greenhouse gas emitting sub-sectorsmodelled (e.g. mining, basic chemicals andnon-ferrous metals), that energy ef ciency is acost-effective method of reducing greenhouse gasemissions relative to other options such as carboncapture and storage and large scale renewableenergy implementation.

Importantly for Queensland, little is known about theopportunities in broader manufacturing industrieswhere international experiences indicate costbene cial outcomes from increasing industryef ciencies (McKinsey & Co., 2008). Industry energyef ciency measures can usually be achieved relativelyquickly compared with other abatement options and

can provide signi cant cost savings to businesses.A number of new initiatives have been developed toidentify these opportunities (see section 11.10).




There is also an opportunity for businesses toposition themselves in the market to takeadvantage of the rapidly increasing demand fromconsumers for goods and services that have a lowor neutral environmental impact. Large retailers areexpected to pass on this consumer demand tomanufacturers through their purchasingrequirements. This means manufacturers that cansupply goods and services that have a lowenvironmental impact in their life cycle will be moreattractive than manufacturers’ products that have ahigher environmental footprint.

In a carbon-constrained economy, there will alsobe high demand for new technologies and services,such as:

Energy ef ciency technologies, auditing• and planning.

Renewable energy and distributed generation.•

Water recycling technologies.•

Sustainable building and design.•

Drought-resistant food and bre.•

Environmental systems and services.•

Emissions and energy measurement, reporting•and auditing.

High ef ciency combustion technologies.•Alternative fuels and new automotive•technologies.

The market for trading of carbon and thedevelopment of projects that exploit carbon-offsetting opportunities is growing rapidly andprovides opportunities for businesses to bene tfrom emissions trading.

11.8 Earlier actionsQueensland Smart EnergySavings ProgramQueensland’s Smart Energy Savings Program(SESP) is a new legislative initiative introducedthrough the Clean Energy Act 2008 . The programaims to drive energy saving improvements in largeQueensland businesses that do not report underthe Commonwealth Energy Ef ciencyOpportunities Program.

The SESP will require participating businesses toundertake an energy audit, develop an Energy

Savings Plan and publish their actions for eachrelevant site on a ve-yearly cycle.

To complete the SESP process, businesses arerequired to:

Register to participate in the program.•

Calculate their baseline energy use.•

Undertake an energy audit and identify•potential energy saving measures.

Produce an Energy Savings Plan of measures•to implement.

Publish a public commitment on the actions to•be taken.

Annually update the public commitment.•

In the third year, review progress and report.•

In the fth year, collect baseline data for the•next cycle.

Large rms (consuming between 100–500 TJ ofenergy) will be required to undertake the SESP from2009–10. The threshold for eligibility will be loweredover time.

Queensland Smart Energy

Savings FundThe Smart Energy Savings Fund (SESF) is a$55 million program to assist Queensland smalland medium-sized businesses invest incommercial energy saving projects, thereby savingmoney and preparing the sector for higher energyprices under the CPRS. The key objective of thefund is to improve energy ef ciency in buildings,appliances and industrial processes.

The SESF will help reduce overall electricity

consumption and deliver savings to Queenslandbusinesses through reduced operating costs andimproved production ef ciency.

Funding will be provided in the form of loans andgrants for energy ef ciency investment throughcompetitive funding rounds.

Approximately $15 million has been allocated fromthe SESF to date for energy conservation anddemand management projects in medium-sizedbusinesses throughout Queensland. Most

importantly, these projects are located in theconstrained areas of the distribution network tomaximise the peak demand bene ts.




ecoBizecoBiz is a partnership program with Queenslandbusiness and industry, which assists businesses tounderstand their impact on the environment andidentify ef ciencies in waste, water and energy for

nancial and environmental bene ts.

ecoBiz assists companies to achieve resource andcost savings through:

A six-step toolbox to help business understand•and manage resource ef ciency.

A Small Business Edition of the toolbox, tailored•to suit service industries and small business.

Industry case studies, fact sheets and resource•

ef ciency guides.A regular ecoBiz e-bulletin providing details of•relevant programs, resource ef ciency tips andcase studies.

A network of ecoBiz facilitators listed on the•ecoBiz website, who are able to assistbusinesses with the program.

Bene ts of the program include:Cost savings, reduced environmental impact•and reduced risks.

A recognised ecoBiz Partner symbol for•companies to use in marketing material.

The potential for a 10 per cent discount on fees•for ecoBiz Partners who are licensed under theEnvironmental Protection Act (1994) .

The potential for publicity through the ecoBiz•

e-bulletin, case studies and industrypresentations.

Opportunities to network with other businesses•undertaking sustainability initiatives.

Over 430 Queensland companies are activelyparticipating in the ecoBiz program, and 34companies have received over $2.4 million in ecoBizrebates to assist in implementing over $18 million inprojects. ecoBiz Partners are saving greenhouse gasemissions of over 22 700 tonnes of CO 2-e in additionto signi cant water and waste reductions.

ClimateSmart BusinessIn December 2008, the Queensland Governmentlaunched the ClimateSmart Business program toassist small businesses prepare for the CPRS andmake savings. The program included information,contacts, tools and programs to help smallbusinesses cut carbon, save money andstay competitive.

The program consists of:An ecoBiz Small Business Edition toolbox,•tailored to service industries andsmall business.

A Carbon Guide for Small Business: It’s a carbon• Jungle out there: A survival guide for business.

The 10 top workplace tips poster: a carbon-•cutting, cost-saving guide for business.

ClimateSmart Business clusters – facilitated•projects with clusters of businesses.

QWESTNetQWESTNet is a network of sustainable technologyusers and retailers that is facilitated by theQueensland Government. It promotes uptake ofnew technology and assists businesses to gaininformation and support on sustainability options.

QWESTNet forums are held regularly on particulartopics and technologies. Recent QWESTNet forumshave addressed energy ef cient lighting, heating,ventilation and air conditioning, carbonaccounting, facilities management, wastemanagement and recycling.




Queensland Sustainable EnergyInnovation FundThe Queensland Sustainable Energy InnovationFund (QSEIF) assists development of technologiesthat reduce fossil fuels and water consumption andgreenhouse gas emissions. Since QSEIFcommenced in 1999, $8.9 million has beencommitted to 77 projects.

Projects funded through the QSEIF program haveachieved economic, technological andenvironmental outcomes. Start-up venturessupported through the QSEIF program have:

Achieved sales of $6 million of energy-saving•products.

Raised $23.8 million in private investment.•

Attracted over $3.5 million of subsequent•federal or state government funding.

Employed an extra 83 staff.•

Achieved quanti able reductions in greenhouse•gas emissions (20 000 tonnes/year by oneproject alone).

The QSEIF program has been instrumental inassisting Queensland start-up companies (such asXerocoat, Biolytix, Red ow, Tritium and Polyoptics)to become world leaders in niche markets forenvironmental technologies.




11.9 Results of community consultationIn September 2008 an Issues Paper, Review of Queensland’s Climate Change Strategies , was released forpublic consultation. It outlined issues and challenges for each of Queensland’s key sectors and sought

feedback on a number of speci c questions.

About 40 per cent of public consultation submissions received from stakeholders responded to the IssuesPaper’s questions relating to industry. The following table outlines the key themes and how the QueenslandGovernment is responding.

1. What are the barriers to improving the energy ef ciency performance in the industrialsector and how could they be addressed?

What did the community say?The key barriers to improving energy ef ciency were identi ed as upfront cost and lack of•

information and knowledge within the sector.There was general consensus among the respondents that to overcome these barriers, expansion•and/or reinvention of current government programs is needed to provide incentives and encouragebroad industry participation.

There was support for the development of sectoral targets, auditing, and reporting regimes, to•ensure industry is meeting appropriate benchmarks, and improving and contributing to an overallreduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

How is the government responding?The Queensland Government’s Smart Energy Savings Program (SESP), which took effect from 1 July•2009, aims to drive energy saving improvements in large businesses by requiring large energy usersto undertake energy audits, prepare energy ef ciency plans and report progress.

The Smart Energy Savings Fund, launched in 2008 includes a $50 million fund to support small and•medium-sized businesses to invest in energy ef ciency.

The government also runs a number of programs, such as the ecoBiz program, which are designed•to increase the sustainability of Queensland industry, including uptake of greater energy ef ciency.

ClimateQ builds on these, with new initiatives to increase business energy ef ciency. The Carbon•Outlook project will undertake a detailed survey of conditions in various industry sectors tounderstand and plan for the impacts of carbon pricing.

ClimateQ includes establishment of a ClimateSmart Business Service, which will provide advice to•businesses on opportunities to improve resource ef ciency, reduce consumption and loweroperating costs.

Further, the Queensland Government has been working with the Commonwealth Government and•other states and territories on a National Strategy on Energy Ef ciency.




2. Are the existing industry programs adequate to support Queensland industry to transitionto a low carbon economy?

What did the community say?The majority of respondents to this question do not believe that the current programs are adequate to•support industry in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to a low carbon economy.

They believe the current programs do not deliver a level of training and behavioural change•necessary to see progress.

The remaining respondents agreed the current programs are good initiatives, however they require•improvements to deliver the desired transition. Expansion of the Smart Energy Savings Program andecoBiz to capture more businesses, deliver more incentives and provide relevant reportingbenchmarks and frameworks were suggested.

How is the government responding?The ClimateSmart Business Service will expand on the ecoBiz program by providing more•businesses with a range of eco-ef ciency advice and products. It will use the results of theinformation gathering and planning undertaken as part of the Carbon Outlook project.

Under the• ClimateQ Resource Ef ciency Regulatory Initiative, the government will also work withindustry stakeholders to reform and streamline the regulatory framework underpinning energy,water and waste reporting and management.

3. Should the Queensland Government develop an energy ef ciency strategy in partnershipwith industry?

What did the community say?There was overwhelming support for the Queensland Government to develop an energy ef ciency•strategy in partnership with industry, with more than 90 per cent of responses to this questionsupporting the initiative.

How is the government responding?The government’s approach to industry energy ef ciency will be based on a sound understanding of•the impacts of carbon pricing through the Carbon Outlook project, building on existing programssuch a SESP and ecoBiz.

It will introduce the ClimateSmart Business Service and work with industry to streamline the•regulatory environment, including energy reporting.




4. Are there key skills shortages to developing clean technology industries in Queensland?

What did the community say?Overwhelmingly, there is agreement that Queensland is experiencing a skills shortage in developing•clean technology industries.

There is concern that if the government does not review its secondary, TAFE and tertiary programs•and include new curricula focused on climate change, eco-ef ciency and adaptation, Queenslandwill struggle to maintain competitiveness in future years.

How is the government responding?The Queensland Government is developing a vocational education and training (VET) Sector•Sustainability Policy and Action Plan which will provide a framework for the VET sector to meet thegreen skilling and workforce development needs of industries and individuals.

Under the VET Action Plan the government will invest $600 000 to address training priorities to•support the green workforce, including:

Conducting a green skills audit to identify current training product and delivery gaps and future•needs.

Developing new training products.•

Embedding sustainability into existing training products.•

Providing professional development to VET providers to enable them to develop and deliver•green skills training.

Encouraging industry and training providers to collaborate and share resources.•

11.10 Recent and newinitiativesClimateSmart Business ServiceAs announced in the 2009-10 State Budget, the$15 million ClimateSmart Business Service willassist Queensland’s small to medium sizeenterprises (SMEs) reduce their emissions andprepare for higher energy and other input costsfollowing the introduction of the Carbon PollutionReduction Scheme (CPRS). The Service will besimilar to the popular ClimateSmart Home Serviceexcept that it will be targeted at Queenland’s SMEs.

Broadly, the ClimateSmart Business Service willprovide:

Information on what the CPRS means for their•business in terms of energy and supply chaincosts.

A plan to manage their carbon exposure which•outlines short, medium and long-termopportunities to lower their energy use andwaste.

An energy savings tool or product to•complement the plan and help realise quickgains. Links into other government and industry•programs that can continue to help companiesbecome more ‘lean and green’.

Further details of the Service will be developed inconsultation with key industry stakeholders, forcommencement in July 2010.

SMEs (businesses with up to 100 full timeemployees) may register their interest at

www.business.climatesmart.qld.gov.au.




Skills development for a lowcarbon economy The Queensland Government is developing a

vocational education and training (VET) SectorSustainability Policy and Action Plan which willprovide a framework for the VET sector to meet thegreen skilling and workforce development needs ofindustries and individuals.

Under the VET Action Plan the government willinvest $600 000 to address training priorities tosupport the green workforce, including:

Conducting a green skills audit to identify•current training product and delivery gaps andfuture needs.

Developing new training products.•

Embedding sustainability into existing•training products.

Providing professional development to VET•providers to enable them to develop and delivergreen skills training.

Encouraging industry and training providers to•collaborate and share resources.

The VET Action Plan will guide investment in newsustainability training resources and materials anddelivery of green training across the VET sector.The training will be delivered through privatetraining providers and TAFEs to apprentices,trainees and existing workers through a mix ofpublic, individual and industry funding.

In addition, green skills will be furtherdeveloped by:

Reskilling or upskilling displaced workers with•training that will make them competitive in the

emerging sustainability workforce.Providing green skills training and on-the-job•experience for up to 3000 job seekers as part ofQueensland’s Green Army.

Carbon Outlook: understandingcarbon impacts on businessThe Queensland Government is investing $500 000

to work with industry to assist them in transitioningto a low carbon economy. Through Carbon Outlook,the government will work with about 50 rms in keysectors to better understand the risks andopportunities of the CPRS. This information andcase studies will be used to assist industry morebroadly and inform policies and programssuch as the ClimateSmart Business Service.Participating rms will be provided with tailoredcarbon strategies.

Reducing green tape forbusinessCurrently, the regulations covering energy andwater, and environmental licensing, are managedby separate areas of government using differentreporting and compliance processes.

Under the Reducing green tape for businessinitiative, the Queensland Government will invest$1 million and partner with industry stakeholdersto explore ways to streamline regulations covering

energy, water and pollutants and simplify statereporting requirements.

The aim will be to reduce the regulatory burden onbusiness, and increase the uptake of ef ciencymeasures that lower greenhouse gas emissions andsave money.






Queensland is experiencing population growth well above the Australian average.•

There is considerable opportunity for land use planning and building design to deliver•low cost emissions reductions and build resilience to climate change impacts.

Buildings currently account for almost one quarter of Australia’s emissions.•

The Queensland Government has started planning for climate change and extreme•events in planning frameworks and has introduced measures to reduce emissionsfrom buildings.

12.Planning and building—tools tominimise climate change impacts




70 per cent of total emissions from the sector (AGO,1999). Emissions vary by building type with of ces

and hospitals standing out as large energy users(AGO, 1999).

Figure 12.1: Emissions projections to 2050 for Australian residential and commercial sectorbuildingsSource: ASBEC, 2008

i

1.3% p.a.

2.1% p.a.

Year

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2005 2010 2020 2030 2050

Residential sector

Commercial sector

Year

M t

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2005 2010 2020 2030 2050

Business as usual results in emissionsincreasing by 78 per cent for residential and154 per cent for commercial buildings by 2050

12.1 ContextCompared with the rest of Australia, Queenslandhas experienced above average population andeconomic growth for more than 20 years (OESR,2008b; ABS, 2008f & 2008g). On average,Queensland welcomes about 1700 new people tothe state each week and the total population isprojected to grow from 4 to 6 million by 2026(DIP 2008b; ABS, 2008g).

Queensland’s expected population growth presentschallenges and opportunities to ensure planningand building design play a key role in buildingresilience to the impacts of climate change and

reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Maintaininga business as usual approach will lock ina signi cant increase in the greenhouse footprintfrom the planning and building sector, which wouldrequire costly retro t as the need to reduceemissions becomes more urgent. By adoptingimproved standards for new development andaccelerating retro t of existing stock, Queenslandcan signi cantly reduce emissions from this sector.

12.2 Emissions fromQueensland’s planningand building sector Currently, about a quarter of all greenhouse gasemissions in Australia can be linked directly tobuildings and building use (ASBEC, 2008). Undera business as usual approach, it is estimated thatAustralia-wide emissions from the residential andcommercial sectors would increase by 78 per cent

and 154 per cent respectively by 2050, as shown inFigure 12.1 (ASBEC, 2008).

Queensland’s rapid population and economicgrowth has driven signi cant investment innon-residential buildings. For example, in 2007–08,there were approximately 5500 new commercialbuildings approved in Queensland, includingof ces, shops and industrial buildings(ABS, 2009a). These had a total value of more than$8 billion (ABS, 2009a).

Commercial sector greenhouse gas emissions arelargely linked to electricity use with space cooling,ventilation and lighting accounting for about




12.4 Reducingemissions through

better planning andbuildingsA more compact and interconnected urban form,well supported by public transport, walking andcycling infrastructure, can play a signi cant part inreducing greenhouse gas emissions.

It is projected that approximately 33 000 newhouses will be built every year in Queensland until2026 (DIP, 2008a). Ensuring the energy ef ciency

of these dwellings is an essential step in reducinggreenhouse gas emissions from the building sectorand securing affordable housing by reducing theimpacts of higher electricity prices in a carbon-constrained future.

The growing trend away from detached housinghas the potential to improve overall energyef ciency, including the potential for improvedef ciency of transport networks.

However, new residential construction onlyaccounts for about 2 per cent of total building stockeach year (DIP, 2008a). Therefore, it is important toachieve signi cant emission reduction withinexisting housing stock.

12.4.1 Challenges to reducingemissions and reducing climatechange impactsLand use planningThere is still a gap in the ability of current planningtools to estimate the emissions pro le that localplanning schemes and development proposalsmay generate.

Initiatives such as Transit Orientated Development(TOD) can be used to reduce transport emissionsfrom new urban development. TOD concentrates amix of land uses including housing, shops,employment, education and other facilities aroundtransport hubs such as train and busway stations.

Planners and developers need to be able to

determine the carbon implications of buildingdesign and features, layout and orientation, andproximity to low carbon transport facilities.

12.3 The challengesposed by climate

changeThe impact of climate change on settlements,infrastructure and buildings is likely to be widespreadand will be experienced differently in various parts ofQueensland (Grif th University, 2007). Denselypopulated urban areas will face a different suite ofproblems than less densely populated regionaltowns. Similarly, coastal areas will face differentchallenges to inland areas (Grif th University, 2007).

As outlined in Chapters 4 and 5, Queensland willexperience various challenges as a result of climatechange including:

Variable rainfall events characterised by an•overall reduction in rainfall, but an increase inmore severe and intense rainfall events.

In general, weather events such as cyclones,•bush res, droughts and oods will be moresevere in their force and impacts.

Coastal infrastructure and ecosystems will•

increasingly be at risk from the impacts of stormsurges and ooding. This will not only result incostly clean-up for coastal towns and cities, butwill impact heavily on unique natural systems.

Climate change impacts are likely to compound theeffects of existing threats to health, safety and thenatural environment. However, Australia has a highlevel of capacity to plan for and respond to theimpacts of climate change (Garnaut, 2008b).

Insurance industry

The insurance industry recognises the risksassociated with climate change, such as thepredicted increase in severe weather events. Overthe last 40 years, 19 of the 20 largest propertylosses in Australia have been weather-related(Insurance Council of Australia, 2008). Since 1970,on a global scale, 37 of the 40 largest insuredlosses have also been weather-related (AustralianBusiness Roundtable on Climate Change, 2006).

A key focus for the Australian insurance industry isto help the community increase their resilience toextreme weather events now and in the future.




Adapting to climate changeOne of the key challenges in reducing the impacts ofclimate change through land use planning is tounderstand the effects of climate change at alocal level.

Understanding climate change science, itsuncertainties and implications to land useplanning, building and design across theresidential, commercial and infrastructure sectors,is an important prerequisite for designing newdevelopment and retro tting existing development.

Much of the science on which climate changedecisions are made is developed at the global ornational scale. However, locally relevant climatechange responses need to be supported byregionally and locally speci c data. For example,the ability to model the areas potentially vulnerableto sea-level rise and storm surge is an essential

rst step to addressing the risk.

Local government is responsible for land useplanning, infrastructure and asset development,operation and maintenance, as well as ensuringcommunity well-being and safety. Therefore, it isimportant that local government staff is supported

to develop contemporary skills and anunderstanding of climate change impactsand responses.

The building sector Numerous studies have identi ed the potential tosigni cantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions byimproving building design and adopting energyef ciency technologies. Many recent reports haveidenti ed that these measures not only offersigni cant potential to reduce emissions, but offerthat potential at low cost or net bene t tothe economy (see for example: McKinsey & Co.,2008; ASBEC, 2008).

There are substantial opportunities to reduceenergy use and increase energy ef ciency byimproving commercial ventilation and air-conditioning, as well as residential water-heating

systems and insulation in both residential andcommercial buildings.

The Nous Group and Sinclair Knight Mertz report(2008) on the Queensland Marginal Abatement CostCurve (MACC) has found that buildings could make a59 Mt CO2-e contribution to emissions reduction outto 2050. Furthermore, the report identi ed that thebuilding sector can potentially abate large volumesof greenhouse gas for low or negative costs.

On a broader scale, the Allen Consulting Group

(2008) analysed the cost bene t of a mandatoryenergy ef ciency program for large energy usersand calculated that implementing a program acrossAustralia would result in a net economic bene t of




$710 million. Queensland’s share of the bene twould be about $200 million— the second highestof all the states—and would save 21 PJ of energyand about 2.8 Mt CO 2-e. Queensland’s commercialand services sector would receive a net economicbene t of approximately $35 million.

Investment in improvements to the energyef ciency of residential and commercial buildingsis often limited by a range of barriers, such as thelack of information, split incentives and regulatoryimpediments, as outlined in Table 12.1.

The Nous Group and Sinclair Knight Mertz (2008)report demonstrates that Queensland has anopportunity to achieve signi cant low costgreenhouse gas savings by implementing anappropriate combination of regulatory and

incentive based measures to overcome thesebarriers. This would also ameliorate the effects ofhigher energy prices from the CPRS.

There are a range of challenges to reducing emissions in the building sector

Challenge Description Examples

Information gaps There is lack of access to information on the

type, availability, and appropriateness ofsustainable technology and energy-ef ciencymeasures, leading to dif culty in makingcomparisons and product choices.

The lack of information about the life cycle

costs (costs over time) of a solar hot watersystem may lead a purchaser to buy analternative with a cheaper up-front cost, forexample electric storage, even though thesolar system is cheaper in the long run.

Split incentives(landlord-tenant problem)

Developers or landlords may choose to installenergy-using equipment that has a cheaperup-front cost, yet a greater life cycle cost andhigher life cycle emissions. This is becausethey pay for the installation, but cannot recoupcosts through savings on energy bills.

Installing extra insulation during constructionadds to costs, but can provide savings oncooling and heating costs over time.Developers do not bene t from these savings,so are less likely to install the extra insulation.

Bounded rationality Individuals and rms are limited in their abilityto access all of the necessary information tomake a fully informed decision about energyef ciency and emissions-related initiatives. Inaddition, they may not consider energyef ciency or emissions intensity as factorswhen making investment decisions.

A building manager assessing priorities for amajor re- t of a building, to improve staffaccommodation. Due to the large number ofdecisions needed and the amount ofinformation available, the manager may notinvest time to nd the most energy-ef cientoption.

Regulatory barriers Some regulations can favour energyinef ciency and inadvertently provide anincentive to adopt inef cient technology.

Body-corporate provisions designed toimprove governance can impede theinstallation of energy ef ciency-relateddevices, such as shading structures and solarhot water systems.Another example is the electricity market,where rules and pricing structures can favourcentralised generation over on-site renewableenergy generation.

Table 12.1: Challenges to reducing emissions in the building sectorSource: ASBEC, 2008 ; Garnaut, 2008b; The Allen Consulting Group, 2008




Green Square- Leading the world in sustainable buildingsGreen Square in Brisbane’s Fortitude Valley is a world-leader incommercial sustainability. Its North Tower, completed in July 2008, isthe rst building in Queensland to be awarded a 6-star Green Star ratingfor its of ce design, while its South Tower was the rst commercialbuilding in the state to be awarded a 5-star Green Star rating for of cedesign from the Green Building Council of Australia in July 2006.

Developers, Leighton Properties and Leighton Contractors, won the2008 Queensland Environmental Protection Agency Award for

sustainability in the built environment for this project.

Both towers feature examples of world’s best practice in terms of generating independent energy.The rst commercial building in Brisbane to have a cogeneration facility (which is also the largest inAustralia), Green Square North Tower is able to reduce its greenhouse emissions by 43 per cent,in addition to the reductions provided by other initiatives.

The North Tower boasts annual water savings of 1.7 million litres and has a 160 000 litre water storagefacility for landscape irrigation and onsite uses. It uses 60 per cent less CO 2 than the averagecommercial building and has smart meters to measure ongoing energy performance.

The South Tower design is also forecast to achieve yearly water savings of 1.7 million litres. Its energy

savings are estimated at more than 320 000 kWh per annum—a 330 000 kg reduction in CO 2 emissions.

12.5 Earlier actionsRegional plansLand use planning is a primary tool for increasingQueensland’s resilience to the impacts of climatechange. The South East Queensland Regional Plan(SEQ Regional Plan) review is one of the largestplanning initiatives being undertaken inQueensland. Recognising that south-eastQueensland has been identi ed by the IPCC(2007a) as a climate change “hot spot”, theQueensland Government has made climate changea key focus of the review.

A south-east Queensland Climate ChangeManagement Plan is being developed to supportthe SEQ Regional Plan by identifying climatechange actions for state and local government.

In addition, a comprehensive assessment ofclimate change risks in south-east Queensland willbe delivered over the next three years through theCSIRO agship research project.

Local climate change data is an important tool forregional, local, and sector-based planning for theimpacts of climate change. The QueenslandGovernment has developed 13 comprehensiveregional climate change assessments covering theentire state (see Chapter 5 and Appendix 3).

Disaster management plansQueensland’s size, diverse climatic conditions, broadrange of settlement patterns and potential forextreme events generates complexities for emergencyresponses. Recognising this vulnerability, theQueensland Government has put in place strongplanning and emergency response measures to dealwith the types of extreme events associated with

climate change. Current initiatives include:Incorporating climate change considerations•into local Disaster Management Plans.

Implementing Queensland’s heatwave•response plan to minimise mortality andmorbidity from heatwaves.

Developing storm tide maps for the•Queensland coastline.




Improving energy ef ciency innew dwellingsThe Queensland Government is working to improvethe environmental performance of new and existingdwellings. A range of new measures have beenadopted, including:

5-star (out of 10) residential energy equivalence•rating for new houses and townhouses and formajor renovations (where practicable).

Better accounting for the Queensland climate in•determining star ratings, by effectively addingup to one star to the energy rating if thedwelling has a covered outdoor living area.

Measures to prevent residential estate•

covenants and body corporate provisions thatrestrict the use of energy ef cient designfeatures and xtures.

Require a sustainability declaration for dwellings•at point-of-sale from 1 January 2010.

New standards for commercialbuilding sectorThe launch of ClimateSmart 2050 in 2007 saw thegovernment expand energy ef ciency standards to

the commercial sector with the requirement of a4-star (out of 5) non-residential energy performancestandard for all new commercial buildings from2010.

Reviewing standards to accountfor effects of climate changeThrough its participation in national forums suchas the Australia Building Codes Board, theQueensland Government is progressively reviewinga range of building codes to account for theconsequences of climate change, including forcyclones, bush res, oods, hail and drought.

CSIRO Flagship: adapting toclimate change in south-eastQueenslandThe CSIRO Flagship will develop practical andcost-effective climate adaptation strategies fordecision makers in government, industry andthe community.

This 3-year project is a major innovation in thatit will be the rst comprehensive regional studyon climate change adaptation undertaken inAustralia and one of only a few worldwide.

The Flagship will provide signi cant bene ts toQueensland by delivering:

A comprehensive vulnerability assessment•for southeast Queensland.

Information and tools to provide urban•planners with the capacity to incorporateclimate change risk into regional and localgovernment planning and development.

Design criteria for critical infrastructure•such as roads, bridges, buildings, andstormwater and sewerage systems, under

altered climate and weather extremes, andchanges in water and energy demand, as aresult of climate change.

Public health and natural disaster response•management, particularly for ooding,cyclones, bush res, storm surges, thatincorporates climate change impacts.

A range of adaptation options for industries•such as tourism, agriculture, and insurance,to better manage climate risks at enterprise

and sectoral scales.Management plans to improve resilience of•protected areas.

The Flagship will serve as a foundation foradaptation planning in other regions of thestate and around Australia.




Redlands at the ready for climate changeAs a coastal council, inundation and coastal protection issues have long been included in Redland CityCouncil planning and development control. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by the council and

the community is managed through a Local Greenhouse Action Plan with ambitious targets to reducethe city’s carbon footprint.

The council has a progressive Climate Change Risk Assessment underway and an Adaptation Plan tofollow. These initiatives are intended to promote wider understanding of climate change and how thecity may adapt to it.

The Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan are voluntary council initiatives that aim to identify, analyseand prioritise climate change risks to council infrastructure, assets and services arising from currentand predicted climate change. They cover the entire Redlands city, which surrounds southern MoretonBay, including the mainland, North Stradbroke Island and the Southern Moreton Bay Islands.

Risks will be identi ed in the short, medium and long term, and the hazards and impacts oninfrastructure, the provision of community services, and operational works will be determined. Spatialanalysis will be used to gauge incremental changes in parameters such as sea-level rise, storm surge,severe storms and ooding over current levels.

The council will also identify measures (short, medium and long term) to respond and adapt to theseidenti ed risks and impacts in its Adaptation Plan. The Adaptation Plan will also focus on how Councilmay more effectively plan development and manage land use. There will be strategies and actionsincluded to develop the necessary systems, monitoring, data collection, and reporting activities.

A public issues and information document on climate change in Redlands will be released as part ofthis initiative.






More than half of the public consultation submissions received from stakeholders responded to the IssuesPaper’s questions relating to planning and building. The following table outlines the key themes and howthe Queensland Government is responding.

1. Is there more the Queensland Government could do to improve the greenhouseperformance of new and existing Queensland commercial and residential buildings?

What did the community say?Most responses to this question provided suggestions on improving the greenhouse performance of•buildings by strengthening and/or mandating energy and water ef ciency design, constructionand retro tting.

A variety of suggestions were provided to facilitate these changes. Some of the ideas included•improving labelling of consumer items, restricting the sale of non-ef cient appliances, incentiveprograms targeting different sectors, providing resources for additional research and pilot designprojects and partnerships with industry bodies and training associations.

How is the government responding?The Queensland Government has a record of continuous environmental improvement in the•

planning and building sector.Following public consultation on the Sustainable Housing discussion paper in 2008, the government•announced a range of measures to improve the greenhouse performance of buildings.

ClimateQ• builds on that by signalling the intention to move to new building requirements (subject toRegulatory Impact Statement and cost-bene t analysis) including: 6-star (out of 10) residential energyequivalence rating for new homes and major renovations from 2010; 5-star standards for multi-residential buildings by 2010 moving to 6-star by 2015; and 5-star (out of 5) non-residential energyperformance standard for new commercial buildings by 2010.

These initiatives will facilitate Queensland reaching world’s best practice standards in planning•and building.




2. Could we improve the environmental performance of houses without impacting onaffordability?

What did the community say?

Many respondents believe that affordability does not need to be impacted, with submissions•identifying a number of simple changes people can make at no or minimal cost. With regard to biggerchanges such as solar hot water, insulation and embedded energy, these respondents believeaffordability issues can be overcome through the provision of adequate incentives and rebates.

Other respondents believe up-front costs remain a barrier to improving the environmental•performance of homes.

Some respondents were interested in the government’s de nition of affordability. If affordability is•interpreted in the long term, taking into consideration pay-back, savings and impacts, then the newmeasures will actually improve affordability. However, if affordability is only viewed as the up-frontcost of building and installing devices to improve environmental performance, then affordability willbe viewed as getting worse.

How is the government responding?In 2007, the government released the• Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy . This Strategyoutlines the overarching approach for enhancing housing affordability within Queensland.

The government is committed to ensuring that affordability extends beyond purchase or rental costs•and also covers the ongoing maintenance and service costs, such as energy and water, to runa household.

Through the implementation of improved environmental performance of housing and the long-term•savings this generates, the government aims to increase housing affordability for all Queenslanders.

3. What are the barriers for embedded generation in residential and commercial buildingsand how could they be addressed?

What did the community say?Cost was identi ed as a key barrier. Overall, submissions stated that the key to overcoming this•barrier is the provision of non-discriminate incentives and rebates.

Regulatory hurdles for embedded generation were identi ed.•

How is the government responding?On 1 July 2008, the Queensland Solar Bonus Scheme commenced. This scheme pays households•and other small generators 44 cents for each kWh of excess electricity fed into the grid. Depending

on the difference between the amount of electricity generated and used, the scheme can reduce thepayback period for solar power systems.

To further encourage the uptake of household solar power, the government dramatically reduced the•upfront cost for 1000 households through the Queensland Solar Homes Program.

The Queensland Government will also assist the development industry and local government•consider on-site energy generation for large commercial buildings by developing guidelines andstandard connection agreements.




4. What could the Queensland Government do to ensure climate change impacts areconsidered in planning decisions?


Overall responses to this section largely focused on the need to amend and improve statutory•planning frameworks, namely through the Integrated Planning Act 1997 , the SEQ Regional Plan andthe State Planning Policies.

Most submissions recommended that these planning frameworks be updated with latest climate•projections and regulations addressing climate change adaptation.

Local governments in particular are looking to these overarching plans to assist decision making by•considering factors such as sea-level rise, storm surges, cyclonic activity, the placement of criticalinfrastructure, heatwave risk and bush re risk.

How is the government responding?The SEQ Regional Plan is currently under review. A key consideration is the impact that climate•change will have on south-east Queensland and the need to plan how to adapt and manage theimpacts. The SEQ Regional Plan will be supported by a Climate Change Management Plan.

Regional plans for other areas of the state that are under development or review will take into•account climate change risks.

To inform future planning decisions,• ClimateQ includes an initiative to accurately map coastalzones, including digital elevation modelling.

In addition, the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) has drawn upon latest•national and international research to compile Regional Climate Change Summaries, relating torainfall, temperature and evaporation for 13 regions covering all of Queensland. These will beupdated regularly and provide regional councils and industry with valuable climate changeinformation to assist adaptation decision-making.




12.7 Recent and newinitiativesCleaner Greener BuildingsA 2009 election commitment, this initiative willinvest $450 000 to lift environmental standards forall new homes, of ces and government buildingsand remove existing barriers to ClimateSmartdevelopment. To achieve this, the government will:

Require new houses and major renovations to•meet a 6-star (out of 10) residential energyequivalence rating by the end of 2010, with upto one star achieved through the inclusion of anoutdoor living area. New units will be expectedto meet a 5-star (out of 10) residential energyequivalence rating from 1 March 2010. Thisinitiative will ensure that new homes will bemore energy ef cient, reducing energy bills andgreenhouse gas emissions.

Stop Body Corporates and developers from•banning energy ef cient building materials likelighter roofs and solar hot water systems byamending the Body Corporate and CommunityManagement Act 1997 .

Require electricity sub-metering in new of ce•buildings and multi unit dwellings, givingtenants an incentive for the rst time to reducetheir own power bills and in turn reducegreenhouse gas emissions.

Require end of trip facilities for cyclists•(including racks, lockers and showers) in allnew major developments around key activitycentres and in new commercial buildingsgreater than 2000m 2.

Subject to regulatory impact assessment and costbene t analysis, the Queensland Government willbuild on this commitment and implementadditional reforms to the current planning systemto promote climate smart development.These include:

Expanding the Building and Development•Tribunal jurisdiction to hear disputes onsustainability issues.

Investigate increasing the minimum standard•

for commercial buildings to 5-stars (out of 5)non-residential energy performance standard by2010.

Green Building Skills FundThe $500 000 Green Building Skills Fund is a 2009election commitment to boost sustainabilityexpertise within Queensland’s building andconstruction industry.

This will be achieved by partnering with peak

industry bodies to deliver accredited trainingcourses, with a particular emphasis on training inregional Queensland.

Training course participants will have 50 per centof their course costs subsidised, resulting inaround 3 000 training places over four years.

The initiative will boost the green skills base acrossa range of professions, including architects,builders, cost planners, engineers, facilitiesmanagers, interior designers, landscape architects,

product manufacturers, project managers andquantity surveyors.




Green Door for high

performance developmentsA 2009 election commitment, the government willaccelerate sustainable and energy ef cient designby fast-tracking sustainable developments througha “Green Door”, using dedicated case managersand expanded Ministerial powers to speed updevelopment decisions.

Under the new powers, the Planning Ministercan direct councils to fast-track approvals where adevelopment exhibits exemplary sustainability

features. The Minister can also give directions tostate agencies in relation to sustainabledevelopments.

A Green Door Advisory Committee will beestablished to advise the Planning Minister ondevelopments that should considered fora ministerial direction. Committee members willinclude local government representatives andindustry and sustainability experts.

Sustainable Development Case Managers will

also be designated to provide a dedicatedsingle entry point to government for all majorsustainable developments.

Improved mapping for climatechange responsesTo better understand the impacts of sea-level

rise, storm surge and coastal erosion alongQueensland’s coastline, the state will invest$8 million to deliver a Digital Elevation Model(DEM) for the Queensland coast.

The DEM will be used to create interactive,computer-based maps that can be employed toshow the impacts of a range of climate scenarios.

Stakeholders, including developers and localgovernment will be able to use the DEM to:

Identify and map areas likely to be at increased•risk from coastal hazards to inform land useplanning and the location of futureinfrastructure and development.

Identify areas that are likely to be more•vulnerable to coastal erosion.

Provide storm tide ooding assessments, which•will inform disaster management planning.

Facilitating low emissionenergy generation incommercial buildingsCommercial buildings and other large non-residentialdevelopments provide opportunities for on-siteenergy generation. The Queensland Government willinvest $200 000 and partner with key stakeholders todevelop planning and assessment guidelines foron-site energy generation for use by the developmentindustry and local government planners.

The government will also work with energydistributors to develop standard technical guidelines

and connection agreements for on-site generation.

The potential bene ts of on-site generationinclude:

Improving supply reliability to building•operators and occupants.

Reducing the overall building energy•consumption and carbon footprint, particularlywhen coupled with building energy ef ciency.

Providing surplus electricity to the grid (where•possible).

Reducing the need for new investment in•energy infrastructure.






Queensland households contribute to the state’s emissions through their energy use,•travel, waste disposal and consumption of goods and services.

Queensland communities have much at risk from unmitigated climate change including•damage to homes and community infrastructure, rising prices for energy and householdgoods and services, and impacts on health and well-being.

These risks can be managed through a concerted effort to reduce emissions and prepare•for the unavoidable impacts of climate change.

There are many affordable opportunities for households to reduce their emissions.•Many of the changes that households can make will save money.

There are factors that inhibit householders from taking action, such as information•barriers, incomplete in uence over household energy use and dif culties in meetingupfront costs.

Queensland Government initiatives have been speci cally targeted at helping•householders to overcome recognised barriers to action and meet the Toward Q2 targetof reducing Queenslanders’ carbon footprint by one third by 2020.

13.Community—householders reducingtheir carbon footprint




13.1 ContextClimate change will affect the quality of life ofhouseholds and communities across Queensland,as well as elsewhere in the world. Greenhouse gasemissions from Queensland households contributeto the state’s high emissions pro le and the stakesfor Queensland communities of unmitigatedclimate change are high. Early and decisiveaction will help to avoid the worst impacts.

The Queensland Government is taking action toreduce the state’s emissions on a range of frontsand has set a target of reducing Queenslanders’carbon footprint by one third by 2020.

By achieving this target, all households andcommunities can help move the state towards a lowcarbon future. The cumulative effect of individuals,households and communities making positive dailychoices to reduce emissions can be signi cant.

13.2 Greenhousegas emissionsfrom Queenslandhouseholds13.2.1 Current emissionsThe average Queensland household generates13.77 tonnes of greenhouse gas per year.This comprises electricity use (8.24 tonnes),fuel for private vehicle use (4.23 tonnes), and fromwaste that goes to land ll (1.3 tonnes) (DPC, 2008).In reality, each household generates signi cantlymore than this, once the embedded energy of thefull range of consumables (such as food andclothing) is taken into account.

Electricity use is the dominant source ofQueensland’s greenhouse gas emissions;28 per cent of the state’s electricity is consumed byhouseholds (PCCC, 2008a). As Figure 13.1 shows,water heating and air conditioning account for thelargest proportion of electricity use in the typicalQueensland household.

The amount of electricity used in a typicalQueensland home has been increasing by about

10 per cent per annum over recent years (DIP, 2008a).This growth has been fuelled by the increasing use ofpower-intensive appliances such as air conditioners.

The proportion of Queensland households with airconditioning increased from less than 20 per cent in1990 to 60 per cent in 2005 (PCCC, 2008a).

The decentralised nature of the state and reliance

on private vehicle transport also contributes toQueensland’s high emissions pro le. In 2007,Queenslanders travelled an average of 13 800kilometres per passenger vehicle (ABS, 2008h).

Household waste sent to land ll also generatesgreenhouse gas emissions. In 2006, eachQueenslander generated, on average, 374 kg ofmunicipal solid waste and 134 kg of green waste(EPA, 2007). Queensland has made progress intackling domestic waste-related emissions throughincreasing participation in waste recycling.

There are a range of other lifestyle factors thatcontribute to the growth in emissions fromhouseholds. Across Australia, levels of overallhousehold consumption expenditure haveincreased steeply, with real householdconsumption expenditure increasing 152 percent between 1961 and 2006 (ABS, 2007a).

Figure 13.1: Typical Queensland householdelectricity useSource: PCCC, 2008a

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conditioning are the largest consumers ofhousehold electricity




13.2.2 Emissions projectionsEmissions from the household (or residential)sector in Queensland were estimated to be 27.5 Mtin 2006, representing 16.1 per cent of totalQueensland emissions (The Nous Group & SKM,2008). As demonstrated in Figure 13.2, undera business-as-usual scenario, the volume ofemissions from the household sector will increaseto 46.3 Mt CO2-e by 2050. This represents18.8 per cent of Queensland’s total estimatedemissions in 2050 (The Nous Group & SKM, 2008).The continued growth in emissions in theresidential sector will re ect population growth inQueensland, which is predicted to almost doubleby 2050 (OESR, 2008c).

13.3 Climate changeimpacts on QueenslandcommunitiesFor many generations, Queenslanders haveenjoyed a high quality of life—including asigni cantly higher standard of living and levelsof consumption than many of their internationalneighbours. This lifestyle of enjoying theconvenience of carbon-intensive goods andservices has contributed to the atmosphericchanges that are driving climate change.

All Queensland communities face risks fromunmitigated climate change. However, the impactsof climate change will vary, both in magnitude andtype, between communities and within particular

sections of the community.The risks to Queensland from climate change arehigh and provide a strong incentive for Queenslandcommunities to take decisive action at individual,household and community level to reduceemissions and to prepare for inevitable changes.

Some of these impacts will be avoided if the worldis successful in achieving global emissionsreductions targets and preventing dangerousclimate change. Other impacts will be inevitable

as a result of climate changes already in the systemand those that will occur in the future, as the worldtakes action to tackle climate change.

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Figure 13.2: Queensland business-as-usualemissions projections for the residential sectorSource: The Nous Group & SKM, 2008

Emissions growth continues from theresidential sector under business-as-usual




13.3.1 Risks to homes andcommunity infrastructureClimate change is predicted to result in a rangeof changes to weather patterns that may impactadversely on homes and community infrastructurein Queensland. These changes include highertemperatures, more extreme weather events,sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns acrossthe state. There is also predicted to be increased

ooding and an increase in bush re risk associatedwith hotter temperatures and drier conditions.

Queensland’s population is highly urbanised,with 64 per cent of people living in major urbancentres (ABS, 2008e). These population centres are

concentrated along the Queensland coast and are atrisk from extreme weather events, such as increasedwind speeds and more intense cyclones. The rapidgrowth in residential development in coastal urbancentres will increase the number of people exposedto these risks. The IPCC has assessed south-eastQueensland as being a key ‘hot spot’ for climatevulnerability by 2050, with risks of losses to thebuilt environment from ooding, sea-level risesand storm surges (IPCC, 2007a).

Other vulnerable communities include those in

other low-lying coastal areas including the TorresStrait, and tropical and sub-tropical populationcentres. These communities face the risk ofdisplacement and of a loss of place and culture thatis central to their well-being. Remote communities,including northern indigenous communities, are atrisk of more frequent periods of isolation andaccompanying disruption to the supply of essentialservices associated with extreme weather events.

Queensland households are likely to be faced withrising insurance and building maintenance andrepair costs. There will be increasing demands onemergency and disaster recovery services to assistcommunities to cope with the impact of extremeweather events and bush res. There will be anincreasing requirement for emergency servicespersonnel, equipment and training to supporteffective disaster response.

The tendency for less frequent and more intenserainfall will bring challenges in maintaining reliableand affordable access to water for residential andother purposes.

In the longer term, there may be dislocation of some

communities as employment opportunities in localindustries such as agriculture and tourism, whichare dependent on speci c climatic conditions,cease to be viable in their current locations.

13.3.2 Health and socialimpacts of climate changeTemperatures across Queensland are predictedto rise, and to be more pronounced in inland areas,in particular the south-west. Heatwaves arepredicted to occur more frequently.

The IPCC has predicted that in the absence ofplanned adaptation, there will be an increasein a number of adverse impacts to human health(IPCC, 2007a). These will include heat-relatedillness, with vulnerable members of the communityincluding the sick, the elderly and the very youngbeing most affected. Low income people may bemore adversely affected as a result of having alimited capacity to adapt their living environmentsin response to changed weather conditions.

Health impacts from extreme weather events willimpact on health and emergency services. Forexample, during the heatwave from 1–22 February2004, the Queensland Ambulance Service recordeda 53 per cent increase in ambulance call-outs(Steffen et al, 2006).

There is some evidence that the total number oftropical cyclones has decreased, in the Queenslandregion in recent decades which may be relatedto more frequent El Niño events since 1977

(Power & Smith, 2007). However, the intensity ofthe more severe cyclones has increased (CSIRO &BoM, 2007).




Other predicted health risks include an increasein the incidence and distribution of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever and RossRiver virus, and of illness associated with food andwater contamination (IPCC, 2007a). Climate changemay affect the ability of Queensland’s agriculturalsector to deliver affordable food produce andcommunities may see an increase in ill-healthassociated with inadequate nutrition.

Queenslanders may experience a loss associatedwith the potential destruction of environmentalicons such as the Great Barrier Reef and northQueensland’s tropical rainforests.

13.4 Impacts of theCarbon PollutionReduction SchemeThe CPRS, proposed by the CommonwealthGovernment, will result in increases to the costof living, including increased fuel and energy costs,and associated increases in the cost of food andother consumables. However, the CPRS is designedto avoid the larger cost increases that would ow tocommunities and households from an unchecked

growth in emissions.

The Commonwealth Government has undertakenanalysis and modelling of the cost impacts of theCPRS on households. It expects that the scheme willresult in increases in the cost of living of 0.4 per centin 2011-12 resulting from an initial $10 per tonne

xed carbon price, and 0.8 per cent in 2012-13 whenfull trading commences (Commonwealth ofAustralia, 2009).

The carbon price will have the greatest impact

on emissions-intensive goods, such as electricity,gas and other household fuels. Electricity prices areestimated to increase by around 18 per cent and gasprices by 12 per cent. Across all households, thiswould lead to an average increase in spending of$4 per week on electricity and $2 per week on gasand other household fuels (DCC, 2008a).

These estimates assume that permit costsare immediately and fully passed throughto consumers, that rms do not change theirproduction processes, and that households do not

change their consumption behaviour in responseto the Scheme (for example, by conserving energy).The costs to households could therefore be lower

if the price signal provided by the CPRS results inchanged behaviour.

The CPRS will not affect the price of petrol in the rstthree years, because the government will offset theimpact of emissions prices through cuts infuel taxes.

Some sections of the community will be more heavilyimpacted than others by the cost increases and willhave less capacity to adapt. Households with lowincomes, or with high debt burdens, will have limitedelasticity in budgets to cope with rising prices, or tomake changes to the energy intensity of their homesin response to rising energy costs. As indicated inFigure 13.3, low income households spendproportionally more of their disposable incomeon energy consumption and on other essentialgoods and services, and therefore have lesscapacity to adapt their spending patterns inresponse to rising prices.

Remote and regional communities will experiencestronger transport-related price increases and mayhave less capacity to cope with changes in theviability of particular industries. The Garnaut Reviewidenti ed that a number of indigenous communitiesin northern Australia may be particularly affected byrising fuel costs, because of their reliance on dieselfuel for power supply (Garnaut, 2008b).

Household assistance measuresThe Commonwealth Government has recognisedthe potential impacts of the CPRS on living costs,and has committed to provide a substantialpackage of measures to help households adjustto the impacts of the scheme. The total size of thisassistance package is estimated to be $6.5 billionover 2011–13 (DCC, 2009e).

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Figure 13.3: Expenditure on basic goods as ashare of disposable incomeSource: Garnaut 2008b

Low income families have less capacity to adaptto rising prices




Direct assistance will be targeted towards lowand middle income households, as they willbe most affected by the transition to a lowpollution economy.

Key features of the household assistancepackage are:

Pensioners, seniors, carers and people with•disability and low-income households willreceive additional support, above indexation,to fully meet the expected overall increase inthe cost of living owing from the CPRS.

Middle income households will receive•additional support, above indexation, to helpmeet the expected overall increase in the costof living owing from the CPRS.

Low and middle income working households•will also receive a tax cut to assist with theexpected overall increase in the cost of living

owing from the CPRS.

Motorists will be protected from higher fuel•costs from the CPRS by ‘cent-for-cent’reductions in fuel tax for the rst three years.

In addition, the Commonwealth Government willestablish the Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF)to provide targeted assistance to businesses,community sector organisations, workers, regionsand communities to adjust to the impacts ofthe CPRS. Speci cally, the CCAF will assistcommunities in addressing information gaps aboutthe operation of the scheme and provide structuraladjustment assistance for those workers andcommunities signi cantly impacted.

The impact of the CPRS on households will alsodepend critically on their capacity to change theirbehaviour and afford energy ef ciency

improvements. In addition to direct nancial

assistance, the Commonwealth Government willfurther support households by delivering energyef ciency measures and providing consumerinformation so households can act practicallyto reduce energy use and save on energy billsover time.

13.5 Opportunitiesfor Queenslandhouseholds to reduceemissionsThe Queensland MACC (The Nous Group & SKM,2008) identi ed opportunities to reduceQueensland household emissions at no or lowcost, and buffer households from the costincreases under the CPRS. This research examinedthe cost of speci c actions against savingsover time.

The MACC highlights the cost-effectivenessof householders investing in energy ef cient hotwater systems, lighting and refrigeration, andimproved insulation.

The increase in energy costs associated with theintroduction of the CPRS will provide consumerswith additional incentives to adjust their behaviourand invest in low-emission technologies.

Individual households can make a difference toQueensland’s carbon footprint and the cumulativeeffect of individuals and communities makingpositive daily lifestyle choices to reduce emissionscan be signi cant. Through its Toward Q2 initiative,

the Queensland Government set a target of reducingQueenslanders’ carbon footprint by one third by2020 by reducing electricity and fuel use and bettermanaging household waste (DPC, 2008).

Queenslanders have previously demonstrated theirability to make positive daily changes by saving vastamounts of water in response to the recent droughtin south-east Queensland. Householders can buildon this success by taking a range of actions that willreduce greenhouse gas emissions and save money.

These actions range from small changes such as usingenergy ef cient light bulbs, to more signi cant changessuch as installing solar power systems in their homes.




13.6 Potential barriersto household actionThere are a range of ‘market failures’ or barriersthat prevent people from taking up opportunities toreduce emissions, even when these opportunitiescan save money.

13.6.1 Information barriersHouseholders may be hesitant to make positivebehavioural changes or energy ef cient purchasesbecause of a lack of clear, reliable informationabout available options and about the comparativecosts and bene ts of particular choices. They may

nd the number of factors to be consideredis overwhelming.

In order to overcome these information barriers,householders need communication strategies thatare consistent, provide encouragement andrecognition, and help householders assess thecomparative bene ts of speci c consumer choices.

13.6.2 Split incentives anddecision-making One key barrier to the uptake of energy ef ciency

arises because those who make decisions and bearthe upfront costs of energy ef ciency may notbene t from ongoing energy savings.

Almost one third of Queenslanders rent their homes(ABS, 2008a). While most tenants are responsiblefor paying electricity and gas bills, they do not havecontrol over many elements of the energy ef ciencyof their homes. In rental homes, decisions about thehot water system, stove and oven, insulation, airconditioning and source of energy are controlled bylessors. Furthermore, lessors who choose to installenergy ef ciency measures in rental accommodationdo not directly bene t from energy savings.

There are more than 320 000 Queensland dwellingsthat are governed by body corporate, and includeunits, ats and townhouses (Department of Justiceand Attorney-General, 2008). In many of thesedwellings, individual unit holders do not completelycontrol all of the energy decisions relevant totheir homes.

While unit holders control decisions about thefeatures that are internally located in their homes,their ability to choose external features, such as hotwater systems, awnings and shading, are oftencontrolled by the body corporate. This can makeenergy ef ciency actions more complex to achievefor unit holders.

Another barrier is a mismatch between theincentives of the builder or developer of a dwelling,who will often make decisions about the energyef ciency of the building, and the purchaser who

may occupy the building and inherit the ongoingenergy costs. For example, in making a decisionabout the type of hot water system to install ona new home, a builder may select a gas system overa solar powered system on the basis of lowerupfront costs, despite the fact that the solar systemwould deliver lower energy costs over time.

In order to overcome these barriers to energyef ciency from differing incentives and incompletein uence, householders may require assistancewith targeted initiatives to drive installation by

owners and third parties, and regulatory reform toimprove decision-making processes andperformance standards.




Families go low carbon for a sustainable futureFor the Silva/Wallace household in Cairns, reducing their carbon footprint has not been so mucha chore, as a way of life. Lyn Wallace and Rowan Silva, and their children Milo, 14, and Phoebe, 11,have embraced a greener lifestyle, and have worked it around their busy lives.

Lyn explains that when they bought their home a few years ago, they were keen to do what they couldto reduce their energy consumption. “We decided to extend our mortgage a little, and replace some ofthe most power hungry appliances, knowing that we would save on money and emissions in the longerterm”, explains Lyn.

The family reduced their water and energy consumption through installing a 440-litre solar hot watersystem and a water-ef cient shower head. Their 5-star energy-ef cient washing machine is always used

on the cold wash cycle.A gas stove top gives further energy savings, and CFL light bulbs have replaced incandescent lights.As a result of making these changes the family saves up to $500 each year from their electricity bill.

The family also looked for other opportunities to reduce their carbon footprint – and have beenconscious to reduce the waste they send to land ll. They compost 4–5 kgs of waste each week andrecycle twice that amount.

The family has adapted its transport routine to replace 100 kms of car travel each week with moresustainable transport methods such as cycling and walking. Lyn, Rowan and the children often use theirbicycles to commute to school and their workplaces. “None of these changes have been dif cult and

we have saved money”, says Lyn. “I’m glad that the kids are growing up with some environmentallyfriendly lifestyle habits”.




13.6.3 Investment barriers(upfront costs)While householders can achieve savings over time

from many energy ef ciency measures, they maylack access to the initial investment required toimprove the energy ef ciency of their homes.High levels of household debt and low levelsof housing affordability may inhibit people fromupgrading to more energy ef cient cars, appliancesor homes.

In addition, there is a high level of householdmobility in Queensland. A survey of Queenslandhouseholds undertaken by the Australian Bureauof Statistics in October 2004 found that anestimated 30 per cent of Queensland householdshad moved residence in the previous three years(ABS, 2005). Planned relocations may inhibitowner-occupiers from investing in energy ef ciencymeasures that are xed to their dwelling (such asenergy ef cient hot water systems, or photo-voltaicsolar cells) on the basis that they may not personallybene t from the savings in energy costs over time.

In order to overcome investment barriers,householders may require targeted assistanceto reduce upfront costs or to accelerate pay-backperiods, particularly in relation to those energyef ciency measures that have the greatestabatement potential.

13.7 Earlier actionsClimateSmart Home ServiceThrough the ClimateSmart Home Service, whichcommenced in January 2009, up to 260 000householders, for a small service fee, will receive ahome visit from a quali ed tradesperson, who willprovide an individualised energy and water audit andenergy saving advice. The Service includesinstallation of a household energy monitor, a wateref cient showerhead and up to 15 compact

uorescent light bulbs. Participating households cansave up to $250 on their annual electricity and waterbills, and 20.4 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissionsover the life of the products. The Service builds on,and replaces, the Home Waterwise Service whichhelped over 228 000 households in south-eastQueensland to save water and electricity.

Queensland Solar HomesProgramThrough the Queensland Solar Homes Program, theQueensland Government negotiated a bulkpurchase of solar panels to assist up to 1000households generate their own solar power. TheProgram is delivering panels at a vastly reducedprice, which is even further lowered forhouseholders eligible for rebates or incentivesthrough Australian Government programs.

ClimateSmart Living CampaignClimateSmart Living, a $2.5 million educationcampaign, encourages Queenslanders to reducetheir carbon footprint through practical householdactions. The campaign provides Queenslanderswith a web-based carbon calculator and advice,supported by coordinated media campaigns andregional forums.

Low Carbon DietThe Low Carbon Diet is a 30-day program whichprovides a step-by-step guide for households toreduce their carbon footprint. The Low Carbon DietCommunity Funding program provides existingcommunity networks with grants to supportbehaviour change. Community efforts to addressclimate change will be recognised through the

Premier’s ClimateSmart Awards.






Assisting Queenslandcommunities build resilience andprepare for climate changeThrough ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12 ,the Queensland Government outlined its strategyfor assisting Queensland communities to buildresilience and prepare for those impacts of climatechange that are now unavoidable.

Actions have included the support of research intoclimate change impacts and the communicationof up-to-date information to the community.Examples of initiatives in this area include:

The Queensland Climate Change Centre of•

Excellence (QCCCE) is undertaking climatechange modelling and analysis to predictregionally speci c climate changes.

Partnership support of $2 million in funding•and over $1 million of in-kind research supportfor the National Climate Change AdaptationResearch Facility. The Facility is coordinatingpriority climate change adaptation researchplans to inform policy development and otherdecisions. It has coordinated the developmentof national research plans in relation to

emergency management, human health andother issues of relevance to the community.

Communication of climate change impacts•through the establishment of a whole-of-government web portal (www.climatechange.qld.gov.au), providing a single point of accessto climate change information, policydevelopments and science.

Support of research into the social impacts•of climate change through a number of‘SmartState’ PhD research projects.

Technical support for the work of the Torres•

Strait Coastal Management Committee, ledby the Torres Strait Regional Authority, which isoverseeing a range of projects to investigateand identify solutions to climate impacts inthe Torres Strait.

Emergency response planning Actions have been undertaken to increase thepreparedness of communities for natural disastersand human health impacts of climatechange including:

Cyclone preparedness workshops delivered• annually in communities at risk.

The development of recruitment and retention•initiatives under the Department of CommunitySafety’s Volunteer Management Strategy, andplanning processes with local government toquantify local State Emergency Services (SES)requirements into the future.

A review of Queensland’s heatwave strategy.•

Continued investment in prevention of•mosquito-borne diseases through research ofwater storage practices, mosquito control, virusdata and mapping, and the development of theQueensland Dengue Fever Management Plan.





Almost half of the public consultation submissions received from stakeholders responded to theIssues Paper’s questions relating to community. The following table outlines the key themes and howthe Queensland Government is responding.

1. How could we replicate our water saving success under the Target 140 to greenhouse gasemissions reductions and energy savings in Queensland?

What did the community say?There was considerable discussion from stakeholders on whether a Target 140 campaign could work•for reducing household emissions as effectively as occurred in south-east Queensland for water.Many respondents expressed the view that the Target 140 campaign was successful because it had•a clearly articulated target, a sense of urgency, and was highly visible. Additionally, the approach toaddressing the problem was multi-tiered, including regulation, incentives, marketingand retro tting.

Many stakeholders suggested ways for the Queensland Government to undertake a similar campaign•on climate change issues, calling on the state government to develop household targets such as:

Monitoring carbon emissions through energy bills similar to how councils monitor water usage•through rates bills.

Carbon reduction targets for all new and renovated residential development.•

Mandating energy ef cient light bulbs, mandatory switching off and removal of second fridge,•and switch to demand tariffs similar to water usage tariffs in Brisbane – i.e. you use more,you pay more.

Most stakeholders believe that education and raising awareness will remain a key aspect of any•emissions reduction campaign.

How is the government responding?As part of its Toward Q2 initiative, the Queensland Government committed to reducing households’•electricity use, fuel use and waste to land ll by one third by 2020.A range of current and existing measures will contribute to meeting this target, including the•

Queensland Solar Hot Water Program, ClimateSmart Home Service and the Low Carbon Diet program,all of which assist households reduce their emissions.The transport measures in• ClimateQ are designed to reduce household vehicle emissions.These measures build on the government’s ClimateSmart Living awareness-raising campaign,•which involves a suite of print and television advertisements.




2. What are the barriers to communities and households reducing their greenhouse gasemissions and how could they be addressed?


In general, a lack of knowledge about electricity usage in households and what can be done•was highlighted.

Some stakeholders discussed the issue of cost, with electricity being too cheap and providing no•incentive for action. Further cost barriers included split incentives, such as those involving tenantsand landlords. This tends to discriminate against low-income households and their ability to reducetheir emissions and prepare for higher energy prices under the CPRS.

The main solutions provided by stakeholders were focused on improving current building design•and construction regulations, while considering affordability.


One of the common barriers to investment in household energy ef ciency is the upfront cost.• The ClimateSmart Home Service is just one of the initiatives designed to overcome this barrier, as isthe Queensland Solar Hot Water Program which is designed to greatly reduce the upfront costs of amajor energy saving investment.

Raising awareness and facilitating action are key roles for government to overcome barriers relating•to access to information. The Big Light Switch campaign, in which 1 million low emission light bulbswere distributed to Queensland households, is an example of this. There was overwhelmingcommunity response to the initiative.






13.9 Recent and newinitiativesQueensland Solar Hot WaterProgramThe Queensland Solar Hot Water Program is a 2009election commitment to deliver up to 200 000 solarhot water systems (including solar heat pumps) toeligible Queensland households for a paymentof $500 or $100 for pensioners and concessioncard holders.

Solar hot water systems outside of the Program cancost up to $5000 to purchase and install, which issigni cantly higher than the cost of installingalternative types of water heating systems. TheQueensland Solar Hot Water Program willencourage Queensland householders to make theswitch to greenhouse friendly water heatingtechnology and to realise signi cant reductions intheir energy consumption.

Importantly, the Program aims to abateapproximately 630 000 tonnes of greenhouse gasemissions over the three-year life of the scheme(based on 200 000 systems) and approximately4.9 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissionsover the lifetime of the systems. This initiative willcontribute to the government’s Towards Q2 targetof reducing the carbon footprint of Queenslandhouseholds by one third by 2020.

Further, the Queensland Solar Hot Water Programwill support the Queensland Government’scommitment to commence phasing out inef cientelectric hot water systems from 2010 in favour ofenvironmentally friendly options, as announced in

the ClimateSmart 2050 strategy.Since 1 March 2006, all new houses have beenrequired to install greenhouse-friendly hot watersystems. From 2010, electric hot water systems willbe phased out of existing homes at the time thatthe system requires replacement, starting withhouses in gas-reticulated areas.

Supporting our HeroesQueensland’s SES and the Rural Fire Service (RFS)provide a critical front line response to naturaldisasters such as res, cyclones and ooding.

To address the risk that climate change willincrease the incidence and severity of res andother extreme weather events, this 2009 electioncommitment of the Queensland Government willinvest $13 million in strengthening the responsecapability and preparedness of Queensland’s SESand RFS by boosting volunteer numbers andproviding additional equipment and resources.

Key features of this initiative include:New equipment for SES groups, including•rescue vehicles, ood boats, trailers andworking-from-heights equipment.

An enhanced excercise regime to test response•to major events.

Increasing the RFS eet by an additional•14 large capacity rural re tankers that wouldbe available for deployment to at-risk areas.

Retro tting RFS primary response vehicles•with re ective re curtains and replacingpetrol driven water pumps with diesel

powered pumps.Guaranteeing the government’s support for•registered volunteers in the public service toaccess ve days leave for attendance atincidents and natural disasters.

Enhanced SES and RFS capabilities andpreparedness will improve Queensland’sadaptation response to climate change impacts.It will also improve the safety of our volunteeremergency service personnel and re ghters.

Disaster preparednessin vulnerable communitiesAs announced in the 2009–10 State Budget, this$7.7 million program will develop the capacity ofindividuals, families and businesses to contributetowards their own safety and well-being in the eventof a natural disaster. Effective communityengagement, education and planning will enablepeople and organisations to take preparednessactions and reduce the costs and other associatedimpacts of an event.




Through this package, Emergency ManagementQueensland will implement and evaluate communitysafety and education strategies across Queenslandto enhance:

Community resilience by integrating community• education into disaster management.

Business continuity planning in response to•climate change.

Property resilience through practical steps•that homeowners can take to better protecttheir homes from the impacts of cyclonesand storms.

Mass evacuation planning across Queensland.•

Bush re CommunityTraining PackageThe risk of bush re is predicted to rise as result ofthe hotter, drier conditions associated with climatechange. An informed public can add signi cantly tothe protection of life and property during bush re,while lessening the risk to police and emergencyservices in the conduct of last minute evacuations.

Through this 2009–10 State Budget commitment,$4.6 million will be provided to develop and

support a network of 3000 Volunteer CommunityEducation Of cers around Queensland to deliverbush re education to their local communities.This network will augment the efforts of volunteer

re brigades through the timely provision ofoperational and safety information to the public.The package will build community awareness of thenature and risk of bush res, and of measures forpreparing and protecting lives, property andthe environment.

Disaster ManagementWarehouses and CachesAs announced in the 2009–10 State Budget, this

initiative will provide $3.4 million for additionalequipment to the SES for responding to large scaleemergencies and disasters. It will also providecommunities with critical items to assist inresponse and recovery. Large disaster managementwarehouses will be established in Brisbane andTownsville and will store additional stocks oftarpaulins, ropes, generators and other equipment.Additional equipment will also be provided toexisting smaller warehouses in Cairns,Rockhampton, Toowoomba and Beenleigh.

The warehouse and caches will ensure rapid andreliable deployment of high volumes of essentialsupplies to local communities to assist ina response or recovery situation.

Keeping Our Mob ClimateSafeThis $2 million initiative will help remoteindigenous communities prepare for the impactsof extreme weather events. It will provide training,resources and exercises to encourage andpromote volunteerism.

The initiative will provide for the employment ofIndigenous Disaster Management Field Of cers,who will be based in Indigenous communities, anddevelop their readiness for disaster events.

Other initiativesThe Queensland Government will deliver a range ofother initiatives that will help the community toovercome recognised barriers to action on reducingtheir greenhouse gas emissions. These initiativesare detailed in other chapters and include:

The Clean Energy for Remote Communities•initiative – which will assist households inremote Queensland communities currentlyreliant on diesel power to reduce energy usethrough community education and energyef cient appliances.

Cleaner Greener Buildings – which will include•amendment of body corporate legislation tobetter enable the uptake of energy ef ciency in

units, ats and townhouses and improve thestandards of energy ef ciency of new housesand multi-residential units.




For much of Queensland, climate change will result in more frequent droughts and drier•conditions. This is likely to have long-term impacts on the economic returns fromprimary production.

Queensland primary producers have recently experienced the worst drought in•over 100 years.

Responding to the challenges of climate variability and drought means preparing•Queensland primary producers to deal with the impacts of climate change.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production and land clearing were•76 million tonnes in 2007, which is 42 per cent of Queensland’s total emissions.

Reducing emissions by avoiding land clearing and establishing biosequestration•

projects offer the greatest potential for primary industries to transform the economicprospects of regional and remote areas.

14.Primary industries—growth in achanging landscape

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14.1 ContextQueensland’s primary industries sector is adynamic contributor to the Queensland economy,society, culture and environment, especially inregional areas. In 2006–07, primary industriescontributed around 6 per cent of the Queenslandeconomy (DPI&F, 2008). The gross value ofproduction in the sector is forecast to be more than$13 billion in 2008–09, a further 6 per cent higherthan 2007–08 and 5 per cent higher than that of2006–07 (DPI&F, 2008).

Queensland’s share of Australia’s agricultural outputrose from around 19 per cent in 1995–96 to almost

23 per cent in 2005–06 (DPI&F, 2008). Apart fromdrought years, the sector consistently recordsproductivity growth rates well above the economy-wide average and provides over 100 000 jobsand around 20 per cent of Queensland’s exports(DPI&F, 2008).

Queensland’s major primary industries are beef,sugar, lifestyle horticulture (including owers andturf), fruit and nuts, cereal grains, vegetables,poultry, forestry and sheries (Figure 14.1).

The sector is facing a number of key issuesincluding changes to global commodity markets,rising food and fuel prices, skills shortages,increasing requirements for biosecurity anda changing climate.

14.2 Emissions fromprimary industries andland clearing Queensland’s emissions from agriculturalproduction, including land clearing were 76 Mtof CO2-e in 2007 (DCC, 2009c). This represents

approximately 42 per cent of Queensland’stotal emissions.

Emissions from livestock production, agriculturalsoils, burning of crop residues, manuremanagement and the burning of savannas in 2007totalled 26.3 Mt CO2-e – more than 14 per cent ofQueensland’s total emissions. Interim land clearing

gures for 2007 show that emissions from landclearing were 49.7 Mt CO2-e, most of which werefor agricultural purposes. This contributesapproximately 27 per cent of Queensland’s totalemissions (DCC, 2009c).

Figure 14.2: Queensland primary industriesemissions sources and sinks in 1990 and 2007Source: DCC, 2009c* The Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry gures(reforestation and deforestation) for 2007 are interm only

Emissions from land clearing have reducedsince 1990, however other agriculturalemissions have increased

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Figure 14.1: Queensland’s major primaryindustries 2008–09Source: DPI&F, 2008




14.2.1 Emissions from landclearing When land is cleared, trees and shrubs are burned,

left to decompose or used for fodder, releasinggreenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It has beenestimated that 235 000 hectares of remnant forestand regrowth were cleared in Queensland in2006-07 (DNRW, 2008), representing an estimated49.7 Mt Co2-e in 2007 (DCC, 2009c).

Under the greenhouse gas accounting rules of theKyoto Protocol, Australia measures and accountsfor emissions from deforestation (Parliament ofAustralia, 2008). Accounting for this sector (calledland use, land use change and forestry) factors inboth the sequestration of carbon dioxide in forestsand woodlands that naturally regrow after clearing,and any emissions that result from further re-clearing of this regrowth forest or woodlands.

A key reason why Queensland is the highestemitting state in Australia is that its emissions fromland clearing are around ve times the nationalaverage. Due to Queensland’s later agriculturaldevelopment compared with other states,Queensland accounts for the vast majority of allnational emissions from land clearing. This isdespite substantial progress in reducing emissionsfrom this sector since 1990.

The Queensland Government phased outbroadscale clearing of remnant forests andwoodlands by the end of 2006, leading to a

signi cant reduction in the area of land clearedeach year. Latest Queensland land clearing guresfrom the Statewide Landcover and Trees Study(SLATS) show a 37 per cent reduction in clearingduring 2006-07 compared with the previous year(DNRW, 2008). Accounting methods for landuse change mean that the effects of this landclearing reduction on emissions levels are yet tobe re ected in Queensland’s greenhousegas accounts.

As shown in Figure 14.2, it is estimated thatQueensland’s end to broadscale land clearing in2006 will reduce emissions by a further 20Mt ofCO2-e per year for the Kyoto accounting period2008-12 (The Nous Group & SKM, 2008).

14.2.2 Emissions from croppingand livestock productionMethane and nitrous oxides are the principalgreenhouse gases emitted from cropping andlivestock production. Per tonne, these gases havehigher greenhouse warming potential than carbondioxide and can have a greater effect onclimate change.

Livestock produce methane when plant materialconsumed by animals is broken down by bacteriain the gut under anaerobic conditions (this processis also known as enteric fermentation). Methane andnitrous oxides are also emitted from thedecomposition of organic matter remaining asmanure. Nitrous oxides are primarily emitted throughthe application of nitrogenous fertilisers, which arewidely used in Queensland’s cropping industries.

Savannah burning includes naturally-causedwild res and deliberate burning for pasture

management, fuel reduction, habitat conservation,wild re prevention and traditional burning byindigenous groups. Savannah burning results inthe release of methane, nitrous oxides and carbondioxide into the atmosphere.

Emissions from agriculture in Queensland increasedfrom 23.6 Mt CO2-e in 1990 to 26.3 Mt CO2-e in 2007(DCC, 2009c). This increase is a result of higher cattlenumbers and increased applications of fertiliser incropping industries, partly offset by declining sheepnumbers and large reductions in sugar cane burning.

In 2007, emissions from livestock alone totalled20.8 Mt, or approximately 80 per cent of totalagricultural emissions in Queensland (DCC, 2009c).

Figure 14.3: Queensland land clearing emissionsprojections to 2050Source: The Nous Group & SKM, 2008

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14.3 Impact of climatechange on primary

industriesPrimary industries are one of the most exposedsectors to the combined impacts of climate changeand changes in global economic activity.The impacts of climate change will be differentacross the state and for different industries.

As outlined in Chapters 4 and 5, highertemperatures and evaporation, together withprojected changes in rainfall, could lead to lesssoil moisture and much less water for irrigation.

Primary industries will also have to cope withmore intense rainfall events, cyclones and storms,even in areas where average rainfall is projectedto decline.

Queensland is projected to have the greatest declinein GSP caused by potential reductions in agriculturalproductivity associated with climate change.A decline in economic activity in both developedand developing countries could also affect marketsfor many agricultural commodities (Garnaut, 2008b).On the other hand, there are likely to be increases inglobal food prices resulting from reducedagricultural production and population growth indeveloping countries (Garnaut, 2008b).

Modelling by ABARE indicates future climatechange impacts on agricultural productivitycombined with global economic activity will impactdirectly on productivity for primary industries. Forexample, exports of livestock are likely to decline,although grains and horticulture could bene t from

increased demand from international markets(Gunasakera et al, 2007b).

14.3.1 DroughtClimate change is projected to increase thefrequency and severity of drought and ‘drying’caused by changes to El Niño weather patternsthat will, in turn, affect rainfall averages andfrequency (CSIRO & BoM, 2007). The IPCC FourthAssessment Report (2007a)(AR4) identi ed likelydeclines in agriculture and forestry production ineastern Australia due to increased drought, re andpest risks. The AR4 Report also identi ed

increasing water security problems, particularly insouth-east Queensland, by as early as 2030.

The recent severe drought conditions inQueensland illustrate the effect that climatechange could have on agricultural production.Research also suggests that areas cleared of nativeforests and woodlands in Queensland are proneto more severe drought conditions, such as higherdaytime temperatures and lower rainfall(McAlpine et al, 2007).

Queensland primary producers have worked tomaintain agricultural production, despite seriousdrought, through uptake of new technologies, suchas decision-making software, new crop varieties,and farming practices such as no-till farmingmethods to manage soil moisture.

14.3.2 Agricultural productionAgricultural productivity will be affected by changesto key climate variables, such as increased averagetemperatures and altered rainfall patterns, whichaffect water availability and reliability (Garnaut,

2008b). These changes will affect crop yields,pasture growth and livestock production. Howeverthere will be variation from the wetter tropicalregions to more arid central and western regions.Climate variation could deliver both negativeand positive outcomes across differentagricultural sectors.

Projected high temperatures and lower rainfall inareas of Queensland will likely reduce productionin cropping and horticulture industries. Lowerrainfall averages projected over central and

southern regions of Queensland will reduceirrigation water availability for the sugar cane,




cotton and fruit and vegetable industries (Stokes &Howden, 2008). Recent projections suggest adecline in sugar cane production by approximately17 per cent in Queensland by 2050 (Gunasakeraet al, 2007b).

Pasture growth is likely to improve in response toa rise in concentrations of carbon dioxide in theatmosphere. However, potential improvements inpasture growth would be offset by reduced rainfallfor many regions of Queensland, such as centraland south-east regions. Increased heat stress willalso affect livestock, leading to higher rates ofmortality. For the beef industry, recent projectionsindicate a potential 34 per cent reduction in beefproduction in Queensland by 2050 (Gunaskera

et al, 2007b).Biosecurity risks are expected to increase,as warmer conditions are more suitable forthe invasive pests, weeds and diseases ofQueensland’s northern neighbours. Changesin temperatures will increase the risk of existingweeds and pest species spreading into new areasaffecting agricultural production. For example, theQueensland fruit y could move south in responseto higher average temperatures (IPCC, 2007a).

Cattle tick infestations could also movesouthwards, leading to a 21 per cent reduction infarm cash income for cattle businesses inQueensland (IPCC, 2007a).

14.3.3 Land degradationClimate change will affect the natural resourcebase on which agriculture depends.Changes to rates of evaporation and soil moisturewill exacerbate land degradation caused by waterlogging, soil acidi cation and dryland salinity(IPCC, 2007a).

Increased intensity of rainfall events will alsoincrease rates of erosion; reducing the productivityof farming systems and increasing downstreamwater quality problems, such as on the Great BarrierReef (Johnson & Marshall, 2007). Primary producersthat are currently not sustainably managingtheir resource base will be most exposed toclimate impacts.

14.3.4 ForestryForest industries will be affected by reducedavailability of water arising from reduced rainfall insome regions, increased temperature, drought andstorms (Garnaut, 2008b). Certain native andnon-native forest species will respond positively toincreased carbon dioxide concentrations andgrowing areas for some species could also change.Queensland is progressively phasing out timber

harvesting on Crown Land, moving towards forestplantations and sustainably managed privatenative forests. However, there is potential forfurther investment and market demand forgovernment and privately owned plantations andsustainably managed private native forests.

14.3.5 Fisheries andaquacultureChanges to water temperature, ocean currentsand altered rainfall patterns will affect sheries’productivity, leading to a range of positive andnegative impacts on commercial, recreational andIndigenous sheries. The abundance and breedingcycles of some species in the northern sheries arelikely to be affected by changing rainfall patterns(Hobday et al., 2008). More research is needed intothe type of effects these changes could have onthese industries. Rapid sea-level rise will reducemangrove and wetland habitat for sh and prawnspecies and could directly impact on aquacultureoperations in low-lying coastal areas (Hobdayet al., 2008).






14.4 Biosequestrationand reducing

emissions fromagriculture14.4.1 Transforming ruralQueenslandAlong with other sectors, primary industries will haveto contribute to reducing Queensland’s greenhousegas emissions. For many primary producers, this willrequire a signi cant shift in industry practices andthe uptake of low emission production methods.Emerging industries, such as carbon farming andbiosequestration activities, may offer substantialopportunities for investment in the rural sector.These activities also provide opportunities forlandholders to diversify income streams throughthe CPRS and voluntary carbon markets.

Activities such as reforestation and reduced landclearing that lead to emissions abatement onagricultural land also have broader environmental andnatural resource bene ts (Gunasakera et al, 2007a).

Biosequestration in forests, vegetation and soils offerspotential for emissions reduction in the primaryindustries sector, but additional knowledge, marketsand rules are required to realise this potential.

14.4.2 Reducing emissionsfrom agricultureReductions in agricultural emissions can beachieved by low cost activities, such as moreef cient fertiliser usage (Garnaut, 2008b), whichalso has bene ts for water quality in sensitive

environments like the Great Barrier Reef. Controlledburning to manage wild res also has the potentialto reduce emissions and increase biosequestrationin the tropical savannahs of north Queensland.

Reducing methane emissions from livestockproduction will be more dif cult, due to a lack ofproven mitigation methods. There is researchcurrently occurring on vaccination and biocontrolto reduce methane emissions from livestock, butfurther research is needed before these wouldbecome available (Garnaut, 2008b).

The Commonwealth Government proposes toinclude agricultural emissions in the CPRS, noearlier than 2015. A nal decision for coverage ofagriculture will not be made until 2013, as there area number of outstanding issues that need to beresolved, such as who should be responsible forpurchasing permits. The large number of smallagricultural entities makes measurement andveri cation problematic and many would not becaptured under the CPRS emission threshold(DCC, 2008a).

The estimation and accounting of emissions fromagriculture can be complex and highly variablefrom region to region. Methane emissions from

livestock vary according to feed types, breeds andmanagement practices. Nitrous oxide emissionsfrom soils vary for different soils types, climaticzones and fertiliser application practices (DCC,2008e). More information that is directly applicableto Queensland soils and climate is required toimplement emissions abatement activities.

The Commonwealth Government has indicated thatthe CPRS will not recognise offsets from agriculturewithin Australia prior to its inclusion in the scheme.




14.4.3 Reforestation anddeforestationActivities which directly contribute to Australia’sKyoto targets include stopping deforestation(or land clearing), and large scale reforestationand afforestation projects. Afforestation andreforestation includes forests established oncleared land after 1 January 1990. Both are thedirect human-induced conversion of non-forestedland to forested land through planting, seedingand/or the human-induced promotion of naturalseed sources.

Afforestation occurs on land that has not beenforested for a period of at least 50 years and

reforestation refers to land that was previouslyforested, but was not forested as at 31 December1989. Reforestation of land cleared for otheragricultural purposes may offer an opportunity forlong-term biosequestration of greenhouse gasesin carbon sinks (IPCC, 2007b). Potentialopportunities for landholders to generate incomefrom reforestation activities could come fromvoluntarily participating in either the CPRS or thevoluntary carbon market.

The CPRS does not include emissions that result fromthe clearing of forests and woodlands. However, theCommonwealth Government will be consideringoptions for an incentive-based mechanism forreducing emissions from deforestation.

14.5 Earlier actionsRural Water Use Ef ciency—

working in partnership withrural communitiesThe Rural Water Use Ef ciency Initiative (RWUE) isa partnership between government and industry toprovide services to growers to improve watermanagement practices and the ef cient use ofwater. The Queensland Government has so farspent $6.5 million over 4 years on RWUE (outsidesouth-east Queensland) and another $6 millionover 4 years for a similar program of increasingwater use ef ciency in south-east Queensland.The RWUE is delivered in partnership with peakprimary industry organisations. In Stage One alone(1999-2003), the program has resulted inimprovements in water use availability of morethan 150 000 ML/yr with an estimated productivityincrease of $197 million. The RWUE has alsocreated 1100 jobs in regional Queensland andattracted up to 76 per cent involvementby irrigators.

Managing droughtCurrent Queensland Government programs placegreat emphasis on building the capacity ofprimary producers to manage the risks associatedwith Queensland’s highly variable rainfall andits changing climate. Drought policy is alsobeing reviewed to align with Australia’s futureclimate projections. As droughts are expected tobecome more intense and frequent in the future,drought preparedness and risk management willbecome increasingly important for the primaryindustries sector.

Vulnerability to climate change depends not juston the direct impacts, but also on the social andeconomic aspects that enables an industry orcommunity to respond or adapt to climate change.Queensland Government initiatives that improvethe viability of rural industries include Blueprint forthe Bush, the Delbessie Agreement and RWUE.Other programs such as seasonal commodityforecasts and decision support software formanaging climate variability, water and drought,

build the capacity of the primary industries sectorand rural communities to manage climatechange impacts.






In December 2007, the Queensland Governmentsigned the Delbessie Agreement (State RuralLeasehold Land Strategy) with primary industry andconservation stakeholders. The Agreement aims toimprove the long-term sustainability of leaseholdland and provide certainty to rural leaseholders toimprove business pro tability and viability.The Queensland Government provides support toregional Natural Resource Management (NRM)organisations in Queensland. NRM groups arecurrently integrating climate mitigation andadaptation actions into regional NRM plans anddeveloping programs for rural landowners.

In April 2009, the Queensland Governmentintroduced a moratorium on clearing high valueregrowth vegetation. The moratorium’s importancewas highlighted by the 2006-2007 StatewideLandcover and Trees Study which showed anincrease in regrowth clearing, particularly onfreehold land (DNRW, 2008). The moratoriumensures that regrowth vegetation cannot be clearedpre-emptively while the government works withstakeholder groups to improve vegetation clearinglaws in Queensland. The area includes more thanone million hectares of endangered regrowthvegetation on freehold and leasehold land andalong water courses in the Mackay/Whitsunday,Burdekin and Wet Tropics catchments. Theprotection of high value regrowth will help reducegreenhouse emissions and improve water quality inthe Great Barrier Reef.

The Queensland Government is developing theGreat Barrrier Reef Protection Regulation, whichwill help improve the resilience of the Reef. Inaddition, the regulation will provide opportunitiesto reduce carbon emissions through betteragricultural practices.

Commercial forest plantationsThe commercial forestry plantation sector has thepotential to expand further in Queensland, providingeconomic bene ts and emissions offsets throughcarbon sequestration. Forestry plantations that arecompliant with the Kyoto Protocol are currentlyexpanding at 6 per cent a year, as a result ofQueensland Government programs and investment.

The Queensland Government is developing andimplementing a range of programs to facilitateexpansion of commercial forestry plantations inQueensland. A review of the Queensland treetenure system is underway to improve its use andfunctionality as a means of facilitating plantationinvestment in Queensland. The QueenslandGovernment is also reviewing state legislation toencourage investment in forestry plantations thatare eligible for permits under the CPRS and thevoluntary carbon market. As part of the WesternHardwoods Plan, the Queensland Government hascommitted to expanding the state-ownedhardwood sawlog plantation estate in south-eastQueensland to a total of 20 000 hectares.

The Queensland Government is also developinga Queensland Timber Plantation Strategy (QTPS) to

promote forestry development for a range ofeconomic and environmental purposes, includingcarbon sequestration, in line with the commitmentin the Queensland Government’s Climate Smart2050 Strategy. It is likely that the QTPS will focus onresolving a range of legislative impediments toplantation development in Queensland.





feedback on a number of speci c questions. More than a third of the public consultation submissionsreceived from stakeholders responded to the Issues Paper’s questions relating to primary industries.The following table outlines the key themes and how the Queensland Government is responding.

1. What are the barriers to the primary industries sector reducing greenhouse gas emissionsand adapting to climate change and how could they be addressed?

What did the community say?Stakeholders commented that a lack of adaptation research and information on possible action•were key barriers to addressing the impacts of climate change. Some submissions identi ed that,without this knowledge, the industry was suffering from a lack of adaptive capacity.

Issues of particular concern include: a lack of investment in research into areas of high emission;•subsidies and other nancial support payments not being tied to emissions reductions; and lack ofcompensation for intensive agriculture; which faces increased costs under the CPRS.

Stakeholders identi ed regulatory issues such as: the lack of a legal requirement to reduce•greenhouse emissions in the agricultural sector; perverse regulation that inhibits innovation; andincompatible land use planning strategies.

Stakeholders suggested the government should work at the farm level to explore mitigation and•adaptation options and develop an education and awareness program.

Many stakeholders provided ideas on how to ensure best practice management regimes for primary•producers including, co-locating primary products with their related auxiliary services to reduce the

high transport emissions from the agriculture sector, and using crop/farm waste for biofuel ormethane gas production.

With regard to regulation, stakeholders suggested measures to encourage the planting and•maintenance of carbon sinks, and Vegetation Management Act 1999 amendments to protect highconservation value regrowth, riparian regrowth and other regrowth with signi cant carbon stores.

Finally, stakeholders considered that awarding carbon credits for soil carbon sequestration, zero•tillage, nitrous fertiliser management, methane capture, limited revegetation and energy ef ciencyshould be encouraged.


The Queensland Government recognises that agriculture is fundamental to the state’s economy and•action in that sector is key to lowering the state’s emissions.

The Queensland Government has expressed its overall support for the CPRS, including the decision•to postpone the inclusion of agriculture until at least 2015.

The government is extending current programs or initiating new ones that prepare the sector for the•impacts of climate change and carbon pricing under the CPRS.

The government will: extend the Rural Water Use Ef ciency Initiative; facilitate the involvement by•lessees on state land in the CPRS and voluntary carbon market; study the biosequestration potentialof different ‘regrowth vegetation’ types; research biosequestration opportunities in Queensland;and support peak industry groups to educate their constituents about climate change adaptationopportunities.




2. What could the Queensland Government do to help its primary producers prepare for theimpacts of climate change?


Stakeholders suggested that the Queensland Government could assist farmers to produce food with•lower greenhouse gas emissions through crop diversi cation and supporting the development offarming methods and crop selection which minimise negative impacts.

Education and training were also raised as ways to assist farmers to implement risk-based farm•management systems.

A number of stakeholders felt that increased research is needed to identify adaptation options at•the farm level and determine the best available opportunities.

How is the government responding?In addition to the existing climate change science and adaptation measures listed in this chapter,•the government will make more investments in building the resilience of the primary industriessector.

The Queensland Government will extend its investment in the successful RWUE program to build•climate change resilience and prepare primary industries for projected declines in water availability,increasing evaporation and increases in rainfall intensity.

The government will also support peak industry groups educate their constituents about climate•change adaptation opportunities. Industry groups will be supported to deliver programs coveringtools and methods for assessing climate change risks, managing short and longer term impacts anddeveloping emerging opportunities.

3. What are the research priorities for Queensland’s primary industries in a

changing climate?What did the community say?

With regard to farming practices and food production, stakeholders raised the need for research in•the following mitigation areas:

Methane reduction in beef cattle.•Climate-appropriate crops.•Water-ef cient farming technologies and practices.•Methods to reduce food miles.•On-farm energy use such as modifying existing farming practices and developing alterative•farming systems that reduce the use of farm machinery.

A number of stakeholders called for more research on adaptation including:•Modelling impact assessments (e.g. impacts on the Torres Strait marine ecosystem and sheries•including impacts on sh species, turtles and dugongs).Impact on water availability.•Soil carbon research.•Adaptation measures to re-tool for climate change, both in terms of knowledge•and infrastructure.Pest management.•Rural water supply, particularly in areas close to urban settings.•

Improved forecasting of potential impacts to land use, resource condition and biosecurity risks.•Coping with droughts.•




How is the government responding?In 2007, the government brought together its climate science expertise and formed the Queensland•Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE). QCCCE has a strong history of working withindependent research organisations and stakeholders, to better understand the impacts of climatechange, projections for Queensland’s sectors and regions and how Queensland needs to adapt.

As part of• ClimateQ, QCCCE has developed detailed Regional Climate Change Summaries, withrainfall, temperature and evaporation projections for 13 regions covering all of Queensland.

The Queensland Government’s Long Paddock website ( • www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au) providesinformation about climate, climate change, seasonal forecasting and the El Niño SouthernOscillation, pasture growth assessments and decision support material for primary producers.

4. What could the Queensland Government do to improve the greenhouse performance of theprimary industries sector?

What did the community say?Many of the same issues raised in questions 1–3 were also raised under this question, including•sustainable farming practices, methane reduction and carbon sequestration.

A number of stakeholders continued to mention that research and education was necessary to•inform the primary industries sector of the risks.

However, respondents also discussed issues regarding:•Strengthening policies on vegetation removal and management to protect native forests•and regrowth.Introducing incentives to prevent regrowth clearing.•Expanding the use of ethanol in fuel to provide further bene ts to reduce agricultural emissions.•

Removing subsidies which promote or continue to use fossil fuels.•Investigation and investment into the bio-energy and bio-char industries.•

Many stakeholders mentioned the issue of offsets, both supporting and warning against the use of•them. Some stakeholders wanted to encourage biosequestration for re-establishing biodiversenative forests as carbon sinks. However, some stakeholders also raised the risks of offsets inpromoting excessive vegetation thickening, and potential risks associated with pests, disease, re,and drought susceptibility.

How is the government responding?In addition to supporting climate change adaptation, the government will invest in understanding•and optimising the state’s biosequestration potential. The government will facilitate the

involvement by lessees in the CPRS and voluntary carbon market. It will also investigate thebiosequestration potential of different ‘regrowth vegetation’ types in Queensland, and supportresearch on biosequestration opportunities in Queensland.




14.7 Recent and newinitiatives

Recognising carbon rights onleasehold landReforestation activities on freehold and leaseholdland provide substantial opportunities for ruralindustries to remove carbon from the atmosphereand generate revenue from the CPRS and voluntarycarbon market. Freehold landholders are eligible tovoluntarily participate in the carbon markets asthey own the carbon rights on their land. On stateland, including leasehold properties, the stateowns the trees and vegetation and thereby thecarbon rights.

This 2009 election commitment will facilitate theinvolvement of lessees of state land in carbonmarkets by:

working with the Commonwealth Government to•ensure that regrowth vegetation on clearedland is eligible for carbon trading under theCPRS; and

ammending state legislation to transfer carbon•

and forestry rights to lessees for the purpose ofparticipating in the carbon market.

Extending the Rural Water UseEf ciency Initiative (RWUE)As announced in the 2009–10 State Budget, the

Queensland Government will extend its investmentin the successful RWUE program with an additional$4.5 million. This initiative extends the funding forthe RWUE program by four years to 2013. It willcontinue to help farmers to reduce their water use,while broadening its scope to also help farmersreduce their energy consumption. Improving theenergy ef ciency of irrigation systems andequipment will help farmers lower energy costs, aswell as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Working in partnership with rural industry groups,the RWUE initiative will promote water and energymanagement, through information and advice onbest practices in water management and energy-ef cient irrigation, including:

information in the form of fact sheets, eld•days, websites and tools, on ways to improveef ciency in on-farm water management;

on-farm assessments of irrigation systems to•identify real and lasting improvements;

integration of water use improvements into•farm planning tools such as farmmanagement systems;

advice on water-ef cient irrigation systems for a•range of different applications, including dairy,horticulture, sugar, cotton, turf, owers andnursery; and

software to analyse water and energy use and•provide data on the bene ts of more energy-ef cient systems.

Identifying the carbon potentialof native vegetationReforestation projects have the potential tosigni cantly reduce Australia’s greenhouse gasemissions at relatively low cost, but they needto be informed by the latest information onvegetation options.

The government is investing $3.5 million in a new

web based information system to assistlandholders to establish reforestation projects forthe domestic carbon market.




Landholders currently have limited access toinformation on the carbon potential of nativeregrowth vegetation on their land, or the options tomanage this regrowth for the carbon market.

CATER will provide up to date information on thecarbon storage potential and growth rates ofnative regrowth vegetation. Landholders canuse this information to plan and designreforestation projects.

Helping primary producers adaptto climate changeThe government will invest $3.2 million to provideinformation and tools to help primary producers in

Queensland manage climate change risks and takeadvantage of emerging opportunities.

This initiative will support research on the impactsof climate change on primary industries (including

sheries and forestry). It will also assess theow-on impacts to farm business, local

communities and the Queensland economy, anddevelop adaptation options to manage the risks.

Broadly, the initiative will:provide primary producers, peak industry•groups and natural resource managementgroups with regional level climate changeprojections and tools to help thembetter assess and manage risks from achanging climate;

build the capacity of agricultural sectors to•assess and manage the risks of climate changethrough training programs;

assess the impacts on agricultural industries•and the ow-on effects on agriculturalproduction to other aspects of the farmbusiness, other industry sectors(eg food processing) and the local andbroader community; and

assist primary producers develop•adaptation options.

Identifying the carbon potentialof land usesBiosequestration involves the removal of carbon

from the atmosphere and its storage in vegetationor soil (for example by growing trees). This $60 000initiative will support world-leading research by theCSIRO into biosequestration opportunities inQueensland. The initiative will investigate thecarbon bene ts that can be achieved from a rangeof land uses, such as plantation forestry, regrowthvegetation and agricultural processes, for examplegrazing and cropping. It will also investigate thepolicy changes that may be required to realisethese bene ts.






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Transport is the fourth largest source of Queensland’s greenhouse gas emissions,•contributing 10.4 per cent to Queensland’s total emission pro le.

Road transport is the largest source of transport-related greenhouse gas emissions,•with passenger cars the greatest contributing sub-sector.

Transport emissions are closely linked to Queensland’s economic and population•growth, the need to travel long distances and increasing congestion, which impacts onpassenger and freight movements.

The Queensland Government is building the transport infrastructure necessary to•support the transition to a low carbon future, including a $702.2 million investment in2009-10 for public transport infrastructure and systems.

The Queensland Government will continue to respond to the challenge of reducing•transport sector emissions by managing congestion, investing in sustainable transportoptions and improving network ef ciency.

15.Transport—moving towardsa low carbon future




Figure 15.2 shows transport sector emissions havegrown by 59 per cent over the last 17 years. This isattributable to the recent mining and resourcesboom, freight needs associated with highpopulation and economic growth, and newcompetition in the aviation sector providing greateraccess for Queenslanders to lower cost air travel(DCC, 2009c).

Figure 15.2: Queensland’s transport emissionstrends 1990–2007Source: DCC 2009a

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Transport emissions have grown by 59 per centsince 1990

15.1 ContextQueensland’s large geographical size anddispersed population, combined with a heavyreliance on private passenger vehicles, provides asigni cant challenge for reducing greenhouse gasemissions from the transport sector.

Moving people, goods and services to where theyneed to be underpins Queensland’s economic andsocial prosperity. National programs to improvefuel quality and vehicle standards are improvingthe fuel ef ciency of new vehicles.

Queensland has a unique opportunity to furthersupport the uptake of low emission vehicles,

promote increased public transport use andwalking and cycling, reduce congestion andimplement programs to neutralise emissions fromthe existing vehicle eet.

15.2 Transportgreenhouse gasemissionsBetween 1990 and 2007, Queensland’s transportsector emissions increased by almost 59 per cent(DCC, 2009c). In 2007, the transport sector was thefourth largest source of greenhouse gas emissionsin Queensland, generating approximately18.9 Mt CO2-e representing 10.4 per cent of state-wide emissions (DCC, 2009c).

Figure 15.1 shows that road transport comprisesthe majority of transport-related greenhouse gasemissions—approximately 85 per cent in 2007(DCC, 2009a). Of this, passenger cars wereresponsible for approximately 9.17 Mt CO 2-e or57 per cent of all road transport emissions and almost50 per cent of total transport emissions.

While passenger cars are the largest source oftransport-related greenhouse gas emissions, theirgrowth rate has not been as rapid as in othertransport sub-sectors. Since 1990, emissions fromthe civil aviation sector have risen by 126 per centand emissions form light commercial vehicles haveincreased by approximately 84 per cent (DCC, 2009a).

Passenger vehicle emissions have increased byapproximately 43 per cent over the same period(DCC, 2009a).

Figure 15.1: Queensland’s transport emissionsby sector *1

Source: DCC, 2009a

* Emissions generated by operating electric trains arecaptured under stationary energy emissions.

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Queensland’s continued high population growthand resource industry expansion are projected tocontinue to increase the state’s transport-relatedgreenhouse gas emissions. For example, emissionsfrom freight transport in Brisbane alone areprojected to increase by approximately 41 per centfrom an estimated 1.4 million tonnes in 2006, to2 million tonnes by 2050 (DMR, 2007).

Figure 15.3 highlights this trend, with transport-related greenhouse gas emissions projected toreach approximately 30.5 million tonnes by 2050(Nous Group & SKM, 2008).

15.3 Climate changeimpacts on transport

infrastructure andoperationsThe transport sector encompasses keyinfrastructure such as roads, ports, tunnels,busways, cycleways and railways. Predictedchanges in Queensland’s climate could impactexisting infrastructure and how infrastructure ismaintained. Climate change could also affect theway that future infrastructure is designed and built,and in uence the operation and attractiveness ofdifferent transport modes.

Transport infrastructure is likely to becomeincreasingly vulnerable to a range of predictedclimate change impacts (DMR, 2007; EPA, 2008a).

Heatwaves, increased temperatures and temperatureextremes are likely to affect roads and runways,which is of particular concern for western regions,where temperature extremes are projected to begreatest. As a result, maintenance and replacementschedules of extensive sections of the intrastate roadnetwork and civil aviation infrastructure will need tobe revised and different materials considered.

Higher temperatures and temperature extremes willalso increase the vulnerability of rail infrastructure,which could, in turn, increase freight costs andimpose greater economic costs on remote andregional communities.

More intense rainfall and ash ooding place bridgesand roads at greater risk to wash-outs and damage.This may result in more frequent maintenance andrepair schedules and increased costs for the roadfreight industry due to network interruptions.

Potential sea-level rise, storm surges andsaltwater intrusion will require transportinfrastructure managers to consider retro ttingoptions, revised maintenance schedules, and thedesign of new infrastructure.

Projected sea-level changes, increased ocean acidityand more intense cyclones and weather systems willimpact on shipping infrastructure.

Figure 15.3: Queensland’s transport emissionsprojections to 2050Source: The Nous Group & SKM, 2008

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15.4 Impacts ofthe CPRSThe transport sector is covered under the proposedCPRS, under which petroleum re ners andimporters will be required to purchase pollutionpermits based on the estimated emissionsgenerated from fuel combustion. By targeting‘upstream’ emissions, greenhouse gases generatedthrough burning fuel can be more easily andaccurately estimated.

Including the transport sector in the CPRS willincrease fuel prices, as transport fuel supplierspass the costs of permits on to consumers, sendinga price signal attached to the fuel they use and theemissions they produce. Based on recent consumerbehaviour responding to high fuel prices, thisshould translate to shifts towards adopting morefuel ef cient transport technologies and alternativefuels. However, the fuel price impact of the CPRS isnot expected to drive signi cant behaviour changein the short to medium term. For example,modelling commissioned by the CommonwealthGovernment estimates that a $25 per tonne carbonprice will only increase petrol prices by about

6 cents per litre (BITRE & CSIRO, 2008). Incomparison, the increase in the price of petrolbetween 2003 and mid-2008 from 90 cents perlitre to almost $1.70 per litre is roughly equivalentto a carbon price of $320 per tonne (DCC, 2008b).

To give households and businesses time to adjustto the CPRS, the Commonwealth Government willintroduce transitional assistance. Motorists will beprotected from the impacts on fuel for the rstthree years of the scheme through ‘cent-for-cent’reductions in fuel tax followed by a review of themeasure. Heavy on-road transport operators willreceive a ‘CPRS fuel credit’ equal to the fuel tax cutfor one year, with the Commonwealth Governmentreviewing the measure after one year.

Credits will also be provided to heavy transportoperators for lique ed petroleum gas (LPG),compressed natural gas (CNG) and LNG at ratesthat re ect the lower emissions of these threefuels. One year credits will be provided for CNGand LNG and three year credits for LPG. Thesemeasures will also be reviewed after one and threeyears respectively.

In the freight sector, operators will have to examinetheir business practices and identify ways to reducetheir exposure to higher fuel costs. This mightinclude streamlining supply chain logistics andswitching to less greenhouse-intensive fuels such aslique ed natural gas (LNG) and vehicle technologiessuch as diesel electric hybrid prime movers.

15.5 The challengeof reducing transportemissionsThe challenge of reducing transport-related

greenhouse gas emissions while maintainingeconomic prosperity has been acknowledged inmajor climate change reports such as the GarnautReview, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report andthe Stern Review (Garnaut, 2008b; IPCC, 2007b;Stern, 2006).

15.5.1 Dominance of thepassenger car Queenslanders rely heavily on private vehicle use.Historical urban planning practices havecontributed and, in some instances, generated thereliance on private vehicles by locating major




NRMA Insurance—driving savingsfor greener carsNRMA Insurance has made major inroads into

its goal of having a carbon-neutral business by2012, by becoming the rst insurer to offercheaper insurance to Queensland drivers whoown fuel-ef cient cars.

According to the Department of ClimateChange, in 2007 the car was the largest singlecontributor to all transport greenhouseemissions, accounting for almost 50 per cent.

Introducing the unique idea in April 2007,NRMA Insurance has helped motorists save up

to 10 per cent on their comprehensive carinsurance premiums by rewarding those whodrive a car with a fuel economy of 5.5 litres orless per 100km, which has led to a 37 per centincrease in policies for fuel ef cient cars.

NRMA Insurance also made it easier forQueensland drivers to help the environmentwith its ‘Carbonators Campaign’, launched inAugust 2007. This green-friendly campaignfeatured members of the Brisbane BroncosNRL football team.

By offsetting one tonne of carbon emissionson behalf of every new comprehensive carinsurance customer, NRMA Insurance offsetmore than 40 000 tonnes of carbon emissions,equal to taking over 9 000 cars off the road, forone year.

employment or commercial sectors at signi cantdistances from residential areas. A lack of walkingand cycling infrastructure and public transportoptions in some areas has also contributed to thisover-dependence on private passenger cars.

The average Queensland passenger vehicle emitsapproximately 4.13 tonnes of CO 2-e annually (DCC,2009a; ABS, 2009b). While there is an increasingpreference for smaller, four cylinder vehicles,highly fuel-ef cient vehicles such as petrol-electrichybrids, micro and diesel vehicles, they do not yetrepresent a signi cant proportion of theQueensland passenger vehicle eet.

15.5.2 High economic andpopulation growthQueensland’s recent high economic growthassociated with the minerals and resources boomand population increase has driven demand fortransport services (DCC, 2008f). This demand isgenerating traf c congestion and increased freightmovements contributing to rising greenhousegas emissions.

Population growth has seen urban settlementspread from city centres particularly in south-eastQueensland, far north Queensland around Cairns,and in regional centres along the east coast such asHervey Bay. This has led to increased numbers ofcars on the road trying to access highly centralisedemployment hubs. This trend emphasises the needto promote sustainable travel choices and developwell-connected communities, which are supportedby more active and public transport networks.

Economic and population growth also generatesdemand for freight transport and services, both ofwhich further contribute to Queensland’sgreenhouse gas emissions.




15.5.3 Tyranny of distanceQueensland’s large geographical size, dispersedpopulations, and wide urban sprawl means localsand visitors often have long distances to travel inorder to access goods and services, touristdestinations and employment. For example,Queensland road vehicles travelled approximately15 200 kilometres per vehicle in 2007, comparedwith the national average of 14 600 kilometres pervehicle (ABS, 2008).

The challenge for Queensland is how to respond toits geographical size and continue to meet theneed to travel long distances, while reducinggreenhouse gas emissions.

15.6 Earlier actions

Improving vehicle fuelef ciency and alternative fuelsThe Queensland Government is encouraging thepurchase of more fuel ef cient vehicles by chargingthe lowest rate of vehicle registration duty onhybrid and electric vehicles.

The Queensland Government is leading by exampleand promoting the use of lower emission vehiclesby setting government vehicle greenhouse gasemission reduction targets of 15 per cent by 2010,25 per cent by 2012 and 50 per cent by 2017.The Government is increasing the proportion ofdiesel, hybrid, micro, light and small vehicles in itspassenger eet from 29 per cent to approximately50 per cent; and increasing the proportion of dieseland liquid petroleum gas-fuelled light commercialvehicles to 80 per cent by 2010.

The Queensland Government is making substantialinvestment in supporting biofuel technologies,such as funding research into deriving biodieselfrom algae at James Cook University.The Queensland Government is also supportingthe use of biofuels by mandating a minimum of5 per cent ethanol component across the totalvolume of regular unleaded petrol sold inQueensland from 2010.

Investing in public and activetransportThe Queensland Government is improvingthe accessibility of public transport, cyclingand walking.

This effort is paying off, with public transportpatronage in the TransLink network area increasingby 40 per cent since 2004 and over 170 millionpassenger trips being undertaken in 2007–08(DIP, 2008).

The TransLink Network Plan guides the delivery ofbetter public transport services and infrastructurein south-east Queensland, and is currently beingreviewed to cover the 10-year planning period from2008–09 to 2018–19. Already, $168.4 million hasbeen allocated over the next four years for newpublic transport initiatives, including purchasing134 new buses for south-east Queensland in2008–09.

The Queensland Government is improving publictransport services in regional, rural and remoteQueensland through its qconnect initiative. Theinitiative includes the development of a regionalqconnect Urban Network Plan, which focuses onservice improvements and network ef cienciesand effectiveness for regional Queensland. Theqconnect initiative also provides funding to enablebus operators in these areas to offer cheaper fares– increasing patronage and reducing the number ofcars on the road.

A Cairns Transit Network Plan is being developed toimprove public transport services, and reducereliance on private vehicles in the Cairns region.Under the plan: buses will take priority, eitherthrough bus lanes or bus-only roads; all majorcentres in the Cairns areas will be connected viathree public transport spines; and existing cane raillines may be used in some parts of the network forlight rail.

The 2009-10 Budget announced $702.2 million inpublic transport infrastructure and systems aroundQueensland. Programs and initiatives to supportpublic and active transport, including walking andcycling, will include:

The Eastern Busway – the next stage from•Buranda to Coorparoo, along with the Boggo

Road Busway, to improve public transportservices for the eastern suburbs of Brisbane.




The Northern Busway – connecting the Inner•Northern Busway at Royal Children’s Hospitalwith Bracken Ridge, in stages, by 2016.

The Gold Coast Rapid Transit project - will•

establish a world-class transport system toimprove public transport and reduce congestionin Australia’s sixth largest city.

The Darra to Spring eld Transport corridor – by•2015 will provide the Spring eld with a keypublic transport rail link.

The Robina to Varsity Lakes rail extension – will•extend the dual track rail line from Robina to anew station at Varsity Lakes.

The Caboolture to Beerburrum Track Duplication•– will provide a second 14 km rail line betweenCaboolture and upgrade Beerburrum andElimbah and Beerburrum stations.

The Helensvale to Robina Track Duplication – by•2008 will provide a second track betweenHelensvale and Robina to allow increased trainservices between Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Boosting pedestrian and cycling networks –•through 88 new projects to expand the south-east Queensland cycle network by an extra90 kilometres, including a dedicated bike and

walkway in the Gateway Upgrade Project andnew pedestrian and cyclist paths for thefull length of the Ipswich MotorwayUpgrade project.

A bicycle end-of-trip facility located as part•of the King George Square Station complex,to encourage commuter cycling into theBrisbane CBD.

The Royal Brisbane Women’s Hospital•cycle centre in combination with theNorthern Busway.

Introducing the go cardThe go card allows seamless, ticketless publictransport in south-east Queensland and supportsthe continued high growth in public transportpatronage. As at 31 May 2009 there were over351 000 go cards in circulation with over32.1 million trips made using a go card since itwas introduced.

Investing in new school busesThe Queensland Government has provided grantstoward more than 500 new or near new schoolbuses under the School Bus Upgrade Scheme(SchoolBUS) since 2002. These buses carry almost90,000 students to school on a daily basis. InFebruary 2009, this scheme was expandedand $48 million will be spent over the nextfour years replacing older buses with newer,more ef cient buses.

TravelSmart CommunitiesThe Queensland Government’s TravelSmartCommunities program has demonstratedsigni cant travel behaviour change in individualhouseholds. In the North Brisbane project, privatevehicle use was reduced by an estimated114 million kilometres (a 13 per cent decrease invehicle kilometres travelled), with participantsincreasing their public transport, walking andcycling travel. This decrease in private vehicle usemeans greenhouse gas emissions should bereduced by 28 000 tonnes per year.

Such programs make an important contribution toreducing greenhouse gas emissions andcongestion as well as improving the health andwell-being of the community. This program is beingexpanded as part of congestion managementinitiatives and will target an additional 300 000households between 2009 and 2010.

Managing congestionThe Queensland Government is managingcongestion through investment in better transportinfrastructure, particularly public transport andusing traf c response units to clear traf c on major

routes quickly following crashes or breakdowns.Currently, the Queensland Government is investingalmost $120 million in congestion management,including a number of initiatives that will deliverclimate change bene ts such as:

End-of-trip facilities for government buildings in•the CBD: Facilities such as bike lockers andshowers will be provided in governmentbuildings in the Brisbane CBD to support thegreater use of cycling and walking bygovernment employees.




Flexible Workplace Program Pilot: With more•than 100 000 people travelling to the BrisbaneCBD each day, the Flexible Workplace Program -Brisbane Central Pilot is aimed at easing traf ccongestion and providing greater exibility inthe workplace by encouraging employees towork from home, compress their working weekand change their typical working hours.

The STREAMS traf c management system: real•time and responsive monitoring of the roadnetwork including using closed circuit televisionsystems and the ability to vary speed limits.

Investing in new roadsinfrastructureThe Queensland Government is making a massiveinvestment in building the transport infrastructurenecessary to support the transition to a low carbonfuture. These investments include:

Airport Link: Measures such as upgrading and•improving the connections around BrisbaneAirport and replacing the existing roundaboutwith a signalised intersection will reducecongestion, improve traf c ow and reducegreenhouse gas emissions.

Completed projects such as the Tugun Bypass• have signi cantly reduced the distance andtime for travel between Currumbin and NewSouth Wales and will reduce greenhouse gasemissions by approximately 3.5 per cent incomparison to the previous route (DMR, 2004).

Design speci cations for transport infrastructurewill need to factor in potential climate changeimpacts such as increased intensity of stormevents. For example, as a result of HurricaneKatrina in the United States new information onhow coastal bridges are affected by extremeweather was incorporated into the HoughtonHighway bridge duplication design (DIP, 2008).

Future planning for growthBy creating the right development patterns,integrating corridor planning of major arterials andproviding support for transit-orienteddevelopments, the need for travel can be reduced.This is reinforced in regional planning documents

such as the South East Queensland Regional Plan.The Connecting SEQ 2031: an Integrated RegionalTransport Plan for South East Queensland(Connecting SEQ 2031) project is an importantinput into the review of the South East QueenslandRegional Plan, and will support development of thefuture transport network to meet population andeconomic growth while ensuring that impactsare managed. Connecting SEQ 2031 is intendedfor release in 2010.

The Queensland Government is developing a SouthEast Queensland Strategic Road Network Plan torespond to urban congestion, plan for transportinfrastructure expansion and provide strategicdirection in managing roads ef ciently intothe future.






About 50 per cent of the public consultation submissions received from stakeholders responded to theIssues Paper’s questions relating to transport. The following table outlines the key themes and how theQueensland Government is responding.

1. How can Queensland reduce the number of vehicles on the road?

What did the community say?Overwhelmingly, respondents viewed public transport as being the primary means by which•Queensland can reduce the number of vehicles on the road.

The next measure identi ed was for greater provision of walking and cycling networks and•infrastructure to promote ‘active’ transport. Speci cally, respondents suggested: purpose-builtinfrastructure; end of trip facilities; and better connected networks that access sites of employment,recreation, and key services such as education, medical services, shopping, or banking.

Following this, the next two important strategies identi ed by respondents are interrelated: better•urban planning and design including greater use of transit-oriented developments; and pro-activetravel behaviour change programs such as TravelSmart.

Other comments of note include: support for government workplace policies that promote the•decentralisation and localisation of work; encouraging the shift from road freight to rail freight; andremoving the fuel subsidy and diverting this money towards public transport.

How is the government responding?The Queensland Government is investing in improving and upgrading the state’s public transport•network, especially within south-east Queensland. Additionally, the government is committed toimproving the active transport network (walking and cycling paths).

See the range of government investment in public transport and active transport in Section 15.6•Earlier actions.

ClimateQ• includes new initiatives designed to encourage people to consider greenhouse friendlytravel options and leave the car at home, such as TravelSmart Schools and TravelSmart Workplacesand Events.

Together these initiatives in partnership with good land use planning will provide Queenslanders•with more travel options, making public transport and active transport easier and more convenient.




2. What are the barriers to reducing transport-related greenhouse gas emissions and howcan they be addressed?


Limited access to adequate public and sustainable transport options was identi ed as the key•barrier. This includes not enough public and sustainable transport options and a lack of supportinginfrastructure, which would allow greater use.

The upfront cost of purchasing lower emission vehicles and providing new infrastructure to support•sustainable transport options was a key barrier for individuals and governments respectively.

Some respondents identi ed that while lower emission vehicle and fuel technology is proven, it is•often not commercially available or deployable in the Queensland context. For example, moreelectrici cation of vehicles and the public transport network is reliant on access to recharge points,more ef cient and lower cost batteries and lower emission electricity supply.

Key measures identi ed include: improving sustainable transport options; including greater public•transport services; improving the reliability, connectedness and attractiveness of public transport;providing the necessary infrastructure to support walking, cycling and public transport; andinvesting in travel behaviour change programs.

Other measures included: improving urban planning; providing greater exibility in workplace•arrangements; and removing perverse incentives that encourage vehicle use or hide the true costof road transport.

How is the government responding?Congestion contributes to traf c emissions and the government is taking action to reduce•congestion and emissions.

In addition to improving the public transport network, the government is committed to investing in•new infrastructure, implementing innovative programs to overcome congestion and encouraging

transit-oriented development.ClimateQ• includes new initiatives designed to reduce congestion including Improving Traf c Flow forReduced Emissions and FreightSmart.

3. What could the Queensland Government do to improve the uptake of low emission vehicles?

What did the community say?Of the solutions proposed, submissions largely focused on the government revising vehicle•registration charges on an emissions performance basis and increasing the numbers of lowemission vehicles in the government eet.

Other suggestions included vehicle emission testing as part of annual registration for• older vehicles, and introducing a fund to support innovative, low emission vehicletechnology development.

How is the government responding?The Queensland Government is already encouraging the purchase of more fuel-ef cient vehicles by•charging the lowest rate of vehicle registration duty on hybrid and electric vehicles.

The Queensland Government will continue to purchase hybrid and low emission vehicles for•its eet.

ClimateQ• includes new initiatives designed to trial and encourage the uptake of low emissionvehicles, including the Low Emission Bus Trial and Greening the Taxi Fleet.

Additionally, for Queenslanders who choose to offset their vehicle emissions, the government will•match their contribution dollar for dollar up to a total funding limit of $4.5 million.




15.8 Recent and newinitiativesImproving traf c ow forreduced emissionsThe Queensland Government will invest$39.3 million in state-of-the-art computer-basedtransport systems to reduce emissions and easecongestion on key roads and motorways insouth-east Queensland.

Vehicles stuck in traf c congestion can produce upto 30 percent more greenhouse gas emissions thanvehicles in free owing traf c. This initiative willimprove the traf c ow of the major road networkby installing new technologies to coordinate traf csignals and on-ramps, vary speed limits, controllanes and monitor traf c. The systems will alsocollect traf c data, assist with future networkplanning, and allow problem areas to be diagnosedmore quickly allowing better responses to traf cincidents that lead to unexpected congestion.

Vehicle offsets contribution

schemeCommencing in 2009, the Queensland Governmentwill encourage motorists to offset their vehicles’greenhouse gas emissions by matching voluntarycontributions by motorists dollar for dollar up to amaximum funding limit of $4.5 million. Forexample, if it costs $80 to offset an average car forone year, the Government will match an individualmotorist’s voluntary contribution of $40 withanother $40 to fully offset the vehicle.

Ecofund Queensland will use the combined fundingto purchase offsets that support the ClimateQ initiative Climate Change Corridors for Biodiversity(see Chapter 16), under which important corridorsof bushland will be purchased so that nativewildlife can respond to climate change, for exampleby migrating to suitable new habitat areas.

In this way, the Government matching vehicleoffsets initiative has the dual bene t of providingan incentive for Queensland motorists to offsettheir vehicle emissions, and making a signi cant

contribution to the protection of Queensland’sunique biodiversity in a changing climate.




TravelSmart Workplaces andEventsThe Queensland Government will invest

$5.2 million to reduce car emissions by promotingwalking, cycling, carpooling and using publictransport to get to work, major events and keydestinations such as tourist attractions, largeshopping centres and universities. The governmentwill assist workplace managers and major eventorganisers develop sustainable travel plans byproviding web-based tools, marketing andeducation information and demonstrationprojects supported by designated TravelSmartcase managers.

TravelSmart SchoolsThe Queensland Government will invest $5 millionto expand the successful TravelSmart Schoolsprogram statewide. It will reduce car emissions byencouraging students, families and staff to travel toschool by walking, cycling, car pooling or publictransport. Participating schools will be assisted todevelop and implement school travel plans tailoredfor their community, by providing seed funding,tools and information supported by designated

TravelSmart case managers.

Faster, better, safer walkingand cycling The Government will invest $2.9 million toaccelerate the planning and development of keywalking and cycling infrastructure in south-eastQueensland. Gaps in the network close to keydestinations such as the Brisbane CBD, theUniversity of Queensland and Fortitude Valley willbe prioritised so that interconnected walking andbike paths can assist Queenslanders to reduceemissions by leaving their car at home.

Public Transport Planning ToolThe government will invest $1.3 million to developa planning tool that measures an area’s publictransport accessibility, based on how easy it is toaccess important services such as hospitals,schools, shops and workplaces by walking, cyclingor public transport. This tool will assist in deliveringbetter integrated transport and land uses andreduce the need to use private passenger vehicletransport, lowering emissions.

Think green—call Yellow!Brisbane’s Yellow Cabs are seeing the economicand environmental bene ts of going green as it

continues its trial of the hybrid vehicle, theToyota Prius, as part of its commercial taxi eetin the Queensland capital.

The Prius uses hybrid petrol-electrictechnology, which switches between aninternal combustion engine and electric powerfrom batteries based on driving conditions.Regenerative braking also recovers some of theenergy lost through braking to recharge thevehicle’s battery system. This means the

vehicle operates very ef ciently reducing fuelconsumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Yellow Cabs now have ten Prius cars inoperation around the greater Brisbane areaand Logan. The green taxis are proving popularwith drivers and passengers alike, andfeedback has been extremely positive.

Just one year into the ‘green’ trial, the Priuslooks like it will be a permanent xture in the

Yellow Cabs eet of vehicles.With Yellow Cabs’ taxis in south-eastQueensland travelling an average of 200 000kilometres per year, using a Prius reducesemissions by up to 27 tonnes of carbon dioxideeach year, in comparison to current sedan-styleLPG taxis.




Low emission bus trialThe Queensland Government will invest$1.4 million to undertake a trial of low-emissiondiesel-electric buses in the public transport eet.Commencing in 2009, this initiative will test theviability of hybrid bus technology under variousQueensland conditions.

According to trials in the United States, hybriddiesel-electric buses emit between 30 and 40percent fewer greenhouse gases compared withconventional diesel technology. Hybrid buses havea smaller-than-normal diesel motor, whichgenerates electricity to power an electric motor thatdrives the wheels. Batteries supply power duringacceleration and hill climbing and store the energyrecovered during braking.

This initiative will trial two hybrid buses, one inregional Queensland and one in south-eastQueensland, and assess the fuel ef ciency andemissions reduction bene ts for potential use inthe broader public transport system.

FreightSmart (including Port ofBrisbane trial)The Queensland Government will partner with thefreight industry to investigate ways of streamliningfreight deliveries to reduce urban congestion and

greenhouse gas emissions. Under the program,grants of up to $50 000 will be provided to industryto examine and test innovative logisticsapproaches, such as off peak freight deliveries.

In addition, the Government, Brisbane City Counciland Port of Brisbane will investigate and trialvarious options to improve freight movementef ciency in the Port Of Brisbane to minimise fueluse and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Theproject will determine the most ef cient way tomove freight by road within the Port, and in and outof the Port area.

Greening the taxi eetThe Queensland Government will spend $70 000 toencourage the use of low emission vehicles, suchas petrol-electric hybrids or small diesel passengervehicles in the taxi eet, by giving a preference totenders for taxi service licences where the taxioperator agrees to purchase and operate a greenvehicle. With the average taxi in Queenslandtravelling 135 000 kilometres per year (AustralianTaxi Industry Association, 2008), there issigni cant opportunity to reduce vehiclegreenhouse gas emissions.






Climate change will impact on ecosystems and wildlife across Queensland. High risk•areas will be the Great Barrier Reef, Wet Tropics rainforests and coastal ecosystems.

Managing climate change impacts on ecosystems will be a signi cant challenge in•Queensland. Efforts will need to focus on reducing non-climate causes of ecosystemdeterioration and restoring the resilience of ecosystems to cope with climate change.

The Queensland Government has implemented a number of environmental programs•that have broader climate change bene ts, such as improving water quality in the GreatBarrier Reef and south-east Queensland, and expanding the protected area estate.

New initiatives in this area will help build resilience of species and ecosystems to cope•with climate change. These include protecting climate-sensitive habitats, managing re

and connecting landscapes through biodiversity corridors

16.Ecosystems—protectingQueensland’s lifestyle andenvironment




16.1 ContextQueensland has a number of outstandinginternational attractions, such as the World Heritage-listed Great Barrier Reef, Wet Tropics rainforests andFraser Island. These environments support animmense diversity of natural environments, andprovide habitat for numerous rare and threatenedwildlife. Queensland’s World Heritage Areas arealso major destinations for international anddomestic visitors.

Nature-based tourism has grown rapidly in recentdecades and provides a substantial contribution tothe Queensland economy. For example, in 2006–07

the Great Barrier Reef tourism industry generatedover $3.7 billion to the Queensland economy andprovided an estimated 43 700 full-time jobs (AccessEconomics, 2008). National parks are also asigni cant contributor to the Queensland economy,with direct spending by tourists of $4.43 billiona year (Ballantyne et al., 2008).

The Garnaut Review identi ed the signi cantecosystem services provided by forests, rivers andnatural coastal areas (Garnaut, 2008b). Rivercatchments supply clean water for urban and rural

communities and fertile soils for agriculture. Coastalwetlands, river deltas and sand dunes providedefence against storms and cyclones, while forestand woodland ecosystems absorb and store carbonfrom the atmosphere.

The value of ecosystems is under signi cant threatfrom climate change. By 2050, large areas of theGreat Barrier Reef and Wet Tropics rainforest habitatcould be lost (Garnaut, 2008b; IPCC, 2007a). Manyother ecosystems in Queensland are alsovulnerable—coastal systems and beaches tosea-level rise and river systems to changes inrainfall. Climate impacts on the natural landscapecould have serious implications for Queensland’stourism industry (Garnaut, 2008b).

Many of Queensland’s ecosystems and native wildlifeare threatened by a range of non-climate factors. Forexample, clearing for agriculture and urbandevelopment, construction of water supplyinfrastructure and poor land managementhave degraded ecosystems and habitat for wildlife

(EPA, 2008b). Managing these non-climate threatswill be critical to building the resilience of ecosystemsto withstand future climate change impacts.

16.2 Impacts ofclimate change

on Queensland’secosystemsAround the world there is growing evidence thatthe warming of 0.7 °C over the last century isimpacting on land-based and marine ecosystems(Garnaut, 2008b). These observed changes in theglobal climate are starting to affect Queensland’swildlife and ecosystems. For example, researchindicates that the timing of annual seabirdmigration has changed and the severity of coralbleaching has increased in the Great Barrier Reef(IPCC, 2007a).

Substantial research outlines the threats posed byfuture climate change on land-based and aquaticecosystems. Higher temperatures and more severedroughts are expected to lead to the loss ofbiodiversity and the extinction of many rare andthreatened species (IPCC, 2007a). In the future,ecosystems may be signi cantly different to thosecurrently found across Queensland.

Climate change is expected to amplify non-climatethreats such as land clearing, draining of wetlandsand the invasion of weeds and feral animals(IPCC, 2007a). The lack of connectivity betweenhabitat areas, and barriers, such as infrastructureand urban development, will also limit the abilityof species to migrate and adjust to changingclimate conditions.




16.2.1 The Great Barrier ReefThe Great Barrier Reef is one of the world’soutstanding marine environments stretching over2 100 km along the Queensland coastline.It supports more than 2 900 coral reefs and a highdiversity of marine life such as tropical sh, turtles,seabirds, whales and dugongs (Wachenfeld et al.,2007). In recognition of these unique values, theGreat Barrier Reef is listed as a World Heritage Areaand protected as a Marine Park. Each year, around1.9 million domestic and international tourists visitthe Great Barrier Reef (Access Economics, 2008).

The Great Barrier Reef is at great risk from rapidclimate change. Since 1979, there has been regularbleaching of coral reefs as a result of higher watertemperatures associated with the in uence ofEl Niño weather patterns on the Australiancontinent. The mass bleaching events in 1998 and2002 affected an estimated 50 per cent of reefswithin the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Followingbleaching, some coral reefs die, while others takemany years to recover.

A further rise in water temperature towards a 2 °Cincrease by 2030 could result in more frequent andsevere bleaching events in the Great Barrier Reef

(Fabricius et al., 2007).Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbondioxide could also cause acidi cation of theoceans, leading to the erosion of hard coral reefstructures (Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2007).

The Great Barrier Reef is threatened by theimpacts of climate change

Figure 16.1: Map of the predicted vulnerability ofthe Great Barrier Reef to climate changeSource: Fabricius et al, 2007

Research has also identi ed that some reefs will bemore vulnerable to climate change, in particularreefs near the coast that are impacted by poorwater quality from increased levels of nutrients andsediment (see Figure 16.1) (Fabricius et al, 2007).

By 2030, climate change could result in thewidespread loss of coral reef ecosystems in the GreatBarrier Reef (Johnson & Marshall, 2007). The GarnautReview concluded that by 2050 unmitigated climatechange is likely to lead to the effective destruction ofthe Great Barrier Reef (Garnaut, 2008b).

These impacts upon the Great Barrier Reef will bea signi cant loss of one of the world’s great naturalwonders and have signi cant implications forQueensland’s economy.




habitat will diminish markedly (WTMA, 2008). Inhis nal report Professor Garnaut assessed thatunder this scenario climate change would force all

endemic Australian rainforest vertebrate species toextinction (Garnaut, 2008b; Australian Centre forBiodiversity, 2008).

Loss of rainforest will be compounded by thedevastation caused by more intense cycloneevents, and the recovery of sensitive rainforestareas could take decades. Much of the forestadjoining the Wet Tropics has been fragmented byclearing for agriculture and development, reducingthe capacity for species and ecosystems torespond to climate impacts.

16.2.3 Rivers and wetlandsChanges to rainfall patterns, which in turn alternatural stream ow, could affect Queensland’srivers, lakes and wetlands. Increased oods andmore severe storms will lead to higher rates oferosion and result in poor water quality in riversand near-shore marine environments (IPCC,2007a). More severe droughts could reduce annualstream ows over the medium to long term. These

impacts will compound existing pressures fromwater supply infrastructure and agricultural, urbanand industrial water use (Garnaut, 2008b).

Wet Tropics rainforest habitat signi cantlyreduces with 2 degrees of warming

I .

Port Douglas

Tully

Ingham

Innisfail

CairnsPort Douglas

Tully

Ingham

Innisfail

Cairns

Today + 20C warming

Areas with a meantemperature less than 22 0C

Figure 16.2: Projected changes to rainforest inthe Wet TropicsSource: Wet Tropics Management Authority, 2008

16.2.2 Wet Tropics rainforestsThe Wet Tropics World Heritage Area located inNorth Queensland has outstanding conservationvalue, with the rainforests and landformssupporting a high proportion of Australia’s plantand animal species. The Wet Tropics supportsmany rare plants and animals found nowhere elseon earth, and contains populations of threatenedspecies such as the Cassowary, White LemeriodPossum and Mahogany Gliders.

Located in the region are international tourismdestinations, such as the Daintree and CapeTribulation. Each year, there are millions of visitorsto the World Heritage Area and nature-based

tourism contributes $426 million annually tothe regional and state economy (CRC for TropicalRainforest Ecology and Management, 2007).

The Wet Tropics rainforests are at risk from climatechange (Williams et al, 2003). Many of the highlyvalued endemic and rare plants and animalspecies are con ned to the higher, cooler areas—such as mountain tops and plateaus. Themodelling results in Figure 16.2 show that witha 2 °C warming, the area of suitable rainforest




Conservation Volunteers Australia—supporting practical conservationConservation Volunteers Australia (CVA) has been involving the community in practical conservation projectsfor over 25 years. During this time, CVA has worked on some of the big environmental problems faced by the

country, including biodiversity loss and decline, invasive species, water quality impacts on the Great BarrierReef, and now climate change. In 2008, CVA teamed up with Shell to form EcoVolunteers, a new nationalinitiative aiming to assist targeted species and ecosystems to survive the expected impacts of climate change.

In Queensland, the initiative will focus its activities in the upland rainforest areas of the southern AthertonTableland. Impacts of climate change are predicted to be disproportionately severe in these forests due to thehigh number of climate-sensitive endemic species. The habitats of over half these species are predicted todisappear under even moderate temperature rises, while extinction for some species is a real possibility.

Working with landholders and other community groups, CVA volunteers will be taking on the job ofrehabilitating degraded rainforest and revegetating cleared areas to increase wildlife habitat and establishcorridors. The goals over the next 3 years are to revegetate 6 hectares of cleared land, improve the condition of

10 hectares of existing forest through strategic weed control, measure changes in habitat quality and extent,and enhance community support for climate change adaptation.

Across Queensland, CVA will continue to undertake a broad range of project activities including riparian andwetland vegetation restoration, coastal protection and rehabilitation, conservation fencing and invasivespecies management.




16.2.4 Inland and coastalecosystemsChanges to rainfall patterns and longer term shiftsin climate variability could impact on forests andwoodland ecosystems across Queensland. Theserainfall variations and more severe droughtconditions, when combined with the potential formore intense wild res, changes in weedsdistribution and feral animals, are likely to result inthe loss of some species, though others will adjustto the new conditions.

Coastal ecosystems, such as wetlands, beachesand oodplains along the Queensland seaboardare at risk of sea-level rise and storm surge. An

assessment of the Cairns region indicates thatduring major storm events, sea-level rise and stormsurge could double the ooded area (McInnes etal, 2003). This could result in the permanent

ooding of beaches and wetlands along theQueensland coastline.

Mangroves and tidal wetland ecosystems are likelyto migrate inland in response to rising seas;however, their capacity to adjust will depend ontopography and local land uses (Hobday et al,2006). In many coastal areas, existingdevelopment and infrastructure could createbarriers to movement and lead to the loss ofwetland systems.

16.2.5 Nature-based tourismQueensland’s nature-based tourism industry isparticularly exposed to climate change impacts.The potential loss of the Great Barrier Reef, WetTropics rainforests and beaches of northQueensland could lead to signi cant impacts on

tourist-related employment in the region (Garnaut,2008b). The loss of biodiversity, increased daytimetemperatures, and threats of bush re and stormscould also affect visitation to Queensland’snational parks. Managing or adapting to climateimpacts on the natural environment will be criticalto the viability of this growing industry.

16.3 Managing Queensland’secosystemsStabilising global emissions is a priority forminimising the impacts of climate change onQueensland’s ecosystems.

Many species may be able adjust to climate change

by shifting or migrating to suitable new habitats.Unfortunately, many plants and animals will beunable to adjust to the changing climate and aretherefore vulnerable to extinction.

Ensuring that widespread and diverse habitat areasare protected will be essential for conserving wildlifein a changing climate. A representative reservesystem can improve connectivity between habitats,reducing the vulnerability of ecosystems to climatechange (Dunlop & Brown, 2008). Improvingconnectivity and linking existing parcels of bushlandacross Queensland’s landscape is a priority. These‘climate corridors’ improve the resilience ofecosystems to withstand changes to climatevariability and enable species to migrate tonew habitats.

Managing the direct effects of climate changeon ecosystems is extremely dif cult. A broaderobjective is to restore the health and function ofdegraded ecosystems to improve their resilience tocope with climate change (Dunlop & Brown, 2008).




Far North Queensland landowners pool carbon for a better environmentResourceful landowners in Far North Queensland are pooling their carbon assets into an environmentalenterprise and helping to reduce polluters’ carbon footprints.

Degree Celsius is an ecosystem services joint venture, making carbon a key regional commodity. Thisstrategic regional initiative—the rst of its kind in Australia—pools the biocarbon resources oflandowners engaged in natural resource management activities. Businesses can responsibly offset theiremissions by investing in these activities, which enhance biodiversity and sequester carbon by literallybuilding rainforests from the ground up.

By pooling pockets of carbon, Degree Celsius can broker a sale to local polluters or carbon-intensivecorporations looking to become carbon neutral and pay landowners for carbon they x in theirrevegetation activities or in their sustainable grazing and cropping. Landowners who sign up havetheir land veri ed by the highest global standards—the Climate, Community and BiodiversityStandards (CCBS).

This provides real, tradeable carbon offsets or credits by pooling the Wet Tropics’ carbon sinks of trees,soils and crops into veri ed offset packages suited to global investors. These carbon sequestration andabatement activities also build resilience in the Wet Tropics landscape, and improve water qualityentering the Great Barrier Reef.

The project accounts for 4 carbon components: tree sequestration, avoided deforestation, nutrientmanagement and soil carbon.

Degree Celsius has estimated that it will have saved 210 000 tonnes of CO 2-e by the end of 2009,comprising assisted natural regeneration, avoided deforestation and degradation, and reforestation.Rainforest Alliance, a leading global auditor, is currently carrying out the CCBS audit; the rst of its kind

in Australia.




Resilience is the ability of a species or ecosystemto recover from a disturbance or impact. Improvingresilience can be achieved by managing non-climate threats such as land clearing, nutrientrun-off from agricultural areas and pest species.

For example, poor water quality is a signi cantthreat to freshwater and marine ecosystems suchas the Great Barrier Reef. Monitoring indicates thatcoral reefs degraded by poor water quality areprone to disease and take a longer period torecover following coral bleaching events (Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2007). Improving the quality ofwater owing from river catchments into the GreatBarrier Reef lagoon is one option to restore thehealth and resilience of coral species to bleaching

(Marshall & Johnson, 2007).Restoring or replanting native forest and bushlandabsorbs large volumes of carbon dioxide from theatmosphere (Garnaut, 2008b). Known asbiosequestration, natural healthy ecosystems canstore between 40–60 per cent more carbon dioxidethan degraded ecosystems (Mackey et al, 2008).Replanting and restoring corridors of native forestand bushland can provide climate adaptationbene ts for biodiversity by connecting fragmentedhabitats and improving wildlife movement.

Restoring forested corridors along rivers can alsoreduce erosion and improve water qualityoutcomes (Campbell, 2008).

As custodians of the land, Queenslanders have avital role to actively plan for climate change.Managing the natural environment in a rapidlychanging climate is a key step in supportingQueensland’s future economic sustainability.Queensland also has a responsibility andobligation to manage its unique and diverseenvironments for the bene t of future generations.

16.4 Earlier actionsProtecting and managingbiodiversity The Queensland Government is developinga comprehensive, state-wide Biodiversity Strategy,which will focus on building the resilience ofspecies and ecosystems to a range of threatsincluding climate change. The Biodiversity Strategywill complement a number of QueenslandGovernment programs.

National parks have been the cornerstone forQueensland’s species and ecosystem protectionfor the last 100 years. In 2008, the QueenslandGovernment committed to doubling the currentarea protected under national parks to 7.5 per centof the state’s land area. Furthermore, the total areaprotected for conservation purposes will beexpanded from the current 8.3 million hectares to20 million hectares by 2020.

Queensland’s Nature Refuge Program protectsbiodiversity and ecosystems on freehold andleasehold land. Nature refuges are voluntarylandholder agreements, designed to conserveecosystems, while allowing ongoing sustainableuse of the land, such as grazing and recreation.

Nature refuges currently protect 730 000 hectaresand will be expanded to assist in meeting the goal ofprotecting 20 million hectares by 2020. These refugeswill complement national parks and can improve theability for species to adjust to climate change.

Queensland introduced the Wild Rivers Act 2005 toprotect rivers that are in a near natural condition.Protecting and managing these wild rivers is animportant response to the impacts on riverecosystems from climate change (Palmer et al, 2008).




Environmental offsets andEcofundIn March 2008, the Queensland Government

announced that Ecofund Queensland (Ecofund) willdeliver carbon and environmental offsets forQueensland. An environmental offset is an actiontaken to counter-balance unavoidable, negativeenvironmental impacts that result from an activityor development.

Established in January 2009, Ecofund investmentwill be directed towards areas of land thatcontribute to biodiversity and climate changeoutcomes. In particular, Ecofund will focus onstrategic parcels of land that contribute to the

national park estate and Nature Refuge Program.This focus will also deliver adaptation, carbonabatement and sequestration bene ts.

Water quality in the GreatBarrier ReefIn 2003, the Queensland and CommonwealthGovernments released the Reef Water QualityProtection Plan (Reef Plan) to manage diffusesources of pollution from agricultural land. The

development of Water Quality Improvement Plansby regional natural resource management groupsand industry best-practice are key features of theReef Plan. The government has committed$150 million over 5 years to support to supportnatural resource management under the Reef Plan.

To strengthen this protection, the QueenslandGovernment has also committed to introduceregulations in 2009 to restrict the use of chemicalsin the reef catchment, as well as damagingagricultural practices including over-grazing, landclearing and excessive fertiliser use. A 2009election commitment, the government willimplement regulations to achieve a 50 per centreduction in the discharge of dangerous pesticidesand fertilisers within 4 years.

Healthy waterwaysThe Healthy Waterways program is a partnershipbetween government, industry, researchers andthe broader community to improve the health of

waterways in south-east Queensland. Actionsimplemented under the program include upgradingwastewater treatment plants, development of

storm water and catchments management plans,and repairing riparian zones (river banks) insouth-east Queensland.

A comprehensive Ecosystem Health Monitoringproject has been implemented to evaluate waterquality condition and trends in south-eastQueensland. Ongoing community educationensures that stakeholders value waterways andprograms to improve ecosystem health.

Wetlands ProgramThe Queensland Wetlands Program developsmeasures for the long-term conservation andmanagement of wetlands in Queensland, with afocus on the Great Barrier Reef catchments.WetlandInfo is a central component to this programand provides mapping and information on differentwetland types and their location. Comprehensivewetland maps for the whole of Queensland havebeen developed and will be used to identifywetlands vulnerable to climate change.

Wetlands management will be strengthened in2009 by changes to the Integrated Planning Act1997 , requiring development approval for anyearthworks affecting wetlands.

The proposed wetlands regulatory regime willprotect high conservation value wetlands frominappropriate high impact development andcontribute to improving water quality in theGreat Barrier Reef through the ltration ofagricultural pollutants.






Almost 30 per cent of the public consultation submissions received from stakeholders responded to theIssues Paper’s questions relating to ecosystems. The following table outlines the key themes and how theQueensland Government is responding.

1. What research is needed to understand the potential impacts of climate change onQueensland’s sensitive ecosystems?

What did the community say?Stakeholders identi ed the following priority research areas: sea temperature changes; sea-level•changes; coral reefs (especially the Great Barrier Reef); ecosystem changes; identi cation of

relevant habitat corridors; threatened species research; weed population and spread; biodiversitymigration patterns; rainfall; temperature; and re patterns.

Stakeholders strongly support this research being undertaken and used to map and monitor•changes within Queensland’s natural ecosystems.

Respondents expected that this information would be used to manage the landscape in an•integrated and holistic fashion, rather than on a property-by-property scale, which is howbiodiversity has traditionally been managed.

How is the government responding?The Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) is working independently and in•partnership with other organisations to research and monitor ecosystems to inform policy-makingand management actions.

In addition, the Department of Environment and Resource Management undertakes monitoring of•wildlife and ecosystems across the state, including on all categories of protected area estate,namely national parks, marine parks, RAMSAR wetlands, nature refuges, recreation areas, andWorld Heritage Areas.

2. How can we increase the resilience of Queensland ecosystems?

What did the community say?While there were a variety of suggestions provided on how the Queensland Government can•increase the resilience of ecosystems, the most common themes included:

Integrated landscape management.•Strengthening and building habitat corridors and connectivity.•Implementation of an offsets policy.•

How is the government responding?In addition to undertaking research to better understand the impacts, the government has•committed to building Queensland’s ecosystems’ resilience by increasing the protected area estate,further extending the voluntary nature refuge areas, and providing carbon and environmental offsetsthrough Ecofund.

In addition, new initiatives such as establishing biodiversity corridors and improving re•

management in national parks will all contribute to strengthening Queensland ecosystems’ ability toadapt to climate change.




16.6 Recent and newinitiativesClimate change corridors forbiodiversityProtecting and managing biodiversity corridors willbe critical to helping ecosystems and wildlifeadjust and cope with climate change. This initiativewill target the protection and management oflandscape corridors, by purchasing areas ofhigh potential biodiversity value and restoringvegetation. Reconnecting fragmentedecosystems will help build resilience to climate

change impacts.This initiative will help meet the goals of expandingthe protected area estate to 20 million hectares by2020 and, over time, may contribute to the goal ofexpanding national parks to 7.5 per cent of thestate’s land area by 2020. Up to $9 million fundingfor this initiative will come from the VehicleOffsets Contribution Scheme (see Chapter 15), with$4.5 million provided by motorists and$4.5 million in matched funding from theQueensland Government.

Improved re management innational parksFire is one of the most valuable tools for managing

re-adapted ecosystems and habitats forthreatened species. Managing wild re is alsoimportant for reducing the risk to public safety andprivate property. The Queensland Government willinvest an aditional $6.5 million to enhance theplanned burn program by incorporating climate

change projections. It will also identify ecosystemsvulnerable to re in hotter and drier conditions andimplement appropriate burning regimes.






The Queensland Government has a key role in leading by example to reduce greenhouse•gas emissions from government operations and ensure government services areresilient to the impacts of climate change.

The government has already taken signi cant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions•associated with its operations and services. These include a commitment to achievingcarbon neutral government-owned of ce buildings by 2020 and improving thegreenhouse performance of the government vehicle eet to reduce emissions by50 per cent by the end of 2017.

New arrangements for purchasing electricity and more ef cient use of electricity and fuel•will be key strategies for the Queensland Government in reducing emissions andminimising the cost impacts of the CPRS.

The government will improve the energy ef ciency performance of new buildings and•retro ts to achieve higher energy ef ciency ratings.

The government will also ensure that infrastructure grants to local governments and•communities take account of greenhouse gas reduction and climate changeadaptation considerations.

17.Government—leading by example




17.1 QueenslandGovernment

greenhouse gasemissionsThe Queensland Government’s greenhouse gasemissions stem mainly from its electricityconsumption, vehicle use, air travel andprocurement of products and infrastructure.

Government buidings used approximately 1 034gigawatt hours of electricity in 2006–07,resulting in the emission of over 1 million tonnesof carbon dioxide equivalent (DPW, 2008b).

The emissions from the Queensland Government’s14 000 QFleet vehicle eet in 2007 were estimatedto be about 79 000 tonnes (DPW, 2008d).The Government produced approximately 31 000tonnes of emissions from about 210 millionkilometres of domestic ights and about 14 millionkilometres internationally between December 2007and December 2008. The high level of emissionsfrom domestic air travel is largely attributable tothe long distances between Queensland’sregional centres.

17.2 The roleand challengesfor QueenslandGovernmentAll facets of Queensland society are expected toplay a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissionsand adapting for the future. The role of theQueensland Government is not just to prepare,support and facilitate climate change action forhouseholds, communities and business. It mustalso lead by example, by reducing its own carbonfootprint, ensuring that government operationsaccount for climate change, and ensuring thatgovernment services are resilient to the impactsof climate change.

Strong population and economic growth has fuelledthe need for new infrastructure in Queensland—roads, water and energy networks, hospitals, schoolsand community facilities (DIP, 2007). In 2006–07,Queensland Government spending totalled morethan $30 billion (ABS, 2008d). The Australia Institute(Richardson & Denniss, 2008) has estimated that theQueensland Government will potentially require anadditional $377 million in its expenditure budget forproviding government services, after the introductionof the CPRS.

As the builder, owner and operator of essentialinfrastructure, the government has an opportunity touse its signi cant purchasing power to promoteresource ef ciency and climate resilience.

For example, each year the Queensland Governmentspends $99 million on 4 600 separate electricityaccounts (DPW, 2008b). A further $4.5 billion is spenton capital works. The government has an opportunityto purchase electricity more strategically and useelectricity and fuel more ef ciently.

Refurbishing buildings to incorporate energyef ciency principles is one method of reducingthe greenhouse gas emissions from governmentbuilding stocks. Ensuring new buildings are built tobest practice standards will minimise emissions from

government services and operations.

As previously indicated, early action in response toclimate change is more cost-effective than delayedaction, or no action at all. This is particularly true withregard to infrastructure, given the signi cant nancialinvestment, long life span of the assets and dif cultyin retro tting existing infrastructure. Newinfrastructure construction projects need to bedesigned to withstand higher average temperatures,lower water availability, higher sea levels and moreextreme climate events.




Reducing local government emissions by carbon accounting The Sunshine Coast Regional Council is building a strategy around carbon management, enabling majorreductions in corporate emissions and helping it become carbon neutral.

Its Carbon Accounting and Management Project will provide the framework that can manage thecouncil’s long-term carbon performance for signi cant emission reductions, while positioning it for theintroduction of the CPRS, and mandatory greenhouse and energy reporting. It will ensure the council isleading by example to in uence emission reductions in the broader Sunshine Coast community.

Climate change consultants, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, assessed the council’s current carbon footprintand helped to identify possible abatement opportunities, provide an implementation path forsigni cant emission reductions and create a governance structure for emissions reporting and ongoingcarbon management.

It found that 95 per cent of emissions generated are from the top ten areas within council, includingland ll operations. Changing staff behaviours, undertaking energy ef ciency programs, purchasinggreen power, renewable energy generation and land ll remediation programs will together achievemajor emissions reductions.

A Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) study was conducted to compare the relative cost andeffectiveness of potential greenhouse action across the council’s corporate activities. This provides anunderstanding of where emission reductions can be made, what reductions can be achieved, and atwhat price.

An implementation plan identi es the strategies and policies required to achieve the desired carbonreduction and management outcomes. It provides a least cost path to minimising impacts and exposureto carbon costs.




17.3 Earlier actionsClimate Change Impact

StatementsIn July 2008, Queensland became the rst state inAustralia to require all relevant Cabinet and Budgetsubmissions to include a Climate Change ImpactStatement (CCIS). The climate change informationcontained in the CCIS allows the government toconsider the impact of its decisions on the state’sgreenhouse gas emissions pro le. It also ensuresthat climate change adaptation issues havebeen appropriately addressed across allgovernment business.

The CCIS serves to embed climate change withinagency decision-making processes to facilitateemissions reductions, identify barriers toreductions, and better plan for climatechange impacts.

Between July 2008 and June 2009, over 300CCIS were included in Cabinet and budgetsubmissions by government agencies.

During phase 1 of CCIS implementation, agencieshave been required to prepare a qualitativeassessment of emissions associated with eachsubmission, and demonstrate how climate changeimpacts will be addressed. Phase 1 of the CCIS iscurrently under review, the outcomes of which willinform implementation of phase 2. Phase 2 willrequire agencies to undertake basic quanti cationof scope 1 (direct) and 2 (indirect) emissions, inaccordance with the Commonwealth Government’sNational Greenhouse Accounts Factors forestimating greenhouse gas emissions.

Premier’s Council onClimate ChangeThe Premier’s Council on Climate Change (PCCC)

provides the Queensland Government withstrategic advice on climate change issues andactions. The PCCC is chaired by the Premier and theMinister for Climate Change and Sustainability isDeputy Chair.

Members are eminent individuals with relevantexpertise, drawn from industry, environment,academic and community sectors from acrossQueensland and Australia. The PCCC meets 3 to 4times per year and provides the Premier withhigh-level advice on:

Priorities for Queensland Government action to•reduce Queensland’s greenhouse gas emissions,including sectoral responses such as sustainableenergy options, transport strategies and builtenvironment energy ef ciency.

Adaptation measures relevant to Queensland•that assist communities and industries addressthe inevitable results of climate change.

Priority areas for investment from the•$430 million Queensland Climate Change Fund.

Opportunities for innovation arising from•climate change for communities and the privatesector, and major implementation issues.

Queensland’s position in contributing to national•policy settings and international negotiations.

The PCCC has an ongoing work program which willaddress 4 key areas: science and technology;industry and market innovation; planning andregulatory reform; and community engagement andeducation. The PCCC delivered its rst working

paper, Achieving early and affordable greenhouse gas reductions in Queensland: strategies forvoluntary household and lifestyle changes, in June 2008.

PCCC recommendations have informed QueenslandGovernment initiatives, including the ClimateSmartHome Service, a $60m initiative to improve energyef ciency in households across Queensland.

The PCCC has identi ed a number of priority areasincluding climate smart building, climate smart

innovation in urban development, carbonconservation opportunities, and industry andtechnology development.




EnergySmart Buildings ProgramThe Queensland Government’s EnergySmartBuildings Program includes a number of initiativesto encourage energy-ef cient practices withingovernment buildings.

The Government Energy Management Strategy(GEMS) was a whole-of-government energyef ciency initiative launched in December 2003.The GEMS sought to improve government agencies’use of energy and water—producing nancial andenvironmental bene ts. It has achieved cumulativesavings of $28 million against its target of$20 million (DPW, 2008b). In 2007, GEMS wasrecon gured as the Energy Smart BuildingsProgram to focus on energy savings rather than just

nancial savings.

The Government introduced the Strategic EnergyEf ciency Policy for Government Buildings inDecember 2007. This established mandatoryenergy reduction targets for departments ofat least:

5 per cent savings by 2010.•

20 per cent savings by 2015.•

For example achieving the 2015 target will cost

Queensland Health $150 million over 8 years, butwill deliver annual ongoing savings of$18 million (Queensland Health, 2008).

ClimateSmart 2050 committed the QueenslandGovernment to achieving ‘carbon neutral’ status(zero net greenhouse emissions) for government-owned of ce buildings by 2020. The target will bemet by: mandating minimum air-conditioningtemperatures in government of ce buildings of24 °C for summer operation; constructing all newbuildings to at least a 4½ -star (out of 5) non-residential energy performance standard withrefurbishments to achieve, where possible, a4½-star standard; introducing annual reporting ofgreenhouse gas emissions attributable to energyuse in these buildings; and purchasing accreditedcarbon offsets.

Solar Schools ProgramThe Solar Schools Program was established toreduce greenhouse emissions from schools andeducate students about renewable technologies.Under this program, 89 solar power systems havebeen installed on schools across urban and ruralareas in Queensland since 2001. In 2008, a further$60 million was provided for solar and energyef ciency initiatives, including the installation ofenergy ef cient light bulbs and energy ‘smart’meters or timers on power circuits to turn offnon-essential power at night and on weekends(DETA, 2008).

ClimateSmart Vehicles Policy The Queensland Government has committed toreducing emissions from the government vehicle

eet by 15 per cent by 2010 and 50 per cent by2017. To help achieve these reductions, a numberof programs have been developed:

Queensland Government agencies are required•to purchase vehicles that have low greenhouse

emissions, yet can also meet the diverse serviceneeds of Queensland.

In 2008, QFleet removed the last of 218•eight-cylinder passenger vehicles from thegovernment eet.

The government uses E10 where it is available.•

The Queensland Government will offset•50 per cent of its vehicle eet emissions by theend of 2010 and 100 per cent by the end of 2020.




Offsetting government air travelThe Queensland Government requires all agencies,ministers, government-owned corporations and thegovernment Air Wing to offset domestic ightswhere offset programs are available. An estimated31 000 tonnes of carbon emissions will be offseteach year by this commitment (DPW, 2008c).

Decentralising governmentworkforceIn July 2008, the Queensland Governmentannounced that it will decentralise governmentfunctions out of the Brisbane CBD. Byimplementing a policy of decentralisation, pressureon public transport and road networks will beeased and urban renewal and developmentstimulated. This will contribute to reducing theneed to travel long distances and therefore reducegreenhouse gas emissions by localisingemployment around key transport hubs.

Greenhouse reporting From 2008, all Queensland Government agenciesmust report to Queensland Parliament annually on

their greenhouse gas emissions. Governmentdepartments report their emissions associated withvehicles, purchased electricity and domestic andinternational air travel on commercial airlines. Forexample, in 2007–08 the Department of Public

Works reported 35 462 tonnes of emissions fromelectricity purchased for government-owned of cebuildings (DPW, 2008a). This reporting is designedto highlight emissions from government businessand stimulate emissions savings.

National Infrastructure AssessmentThe Queensland Government is assisting with aNational Infrastructure Risk Assessment currentlybeing conducted by the CommonwealthGovernment. This assessment will inform theQueensland Government on threats to the state’sinfrastructure posed by climate change, andpossible responses. Speci cally, theassessment will:

Identify the risks of climate change to existing•and planned infrastructure, including thephysical, social, governance, legal and

nancial implications.

Identify the infrastructure most at risk from•climate change and identify priorities foradaptation action.

Better position the Queensland Government to•incorporate climate change considerations into

future infrastructure planning.Incorporate climate change into the terms of•reference for environmental impact statementsand other relevant assessment processes forfuture infrastructure.







Almost 50 per cent of the public consultation submissions received from stakeholders responded to theIssues Paper’s questions relating to government leadership. The following table outlines the key themesand how the Queensland Government is responding.

1. What demonstration projects should the Queensland Government support to stimulateinnovation and investment in greenhouse gas reduction technologies?


The majority of responses suggested the Queensland Government support renewable energy•technology demonstration projects to show the viability and effectiveness of the various technologies.

The next most popular response suggested the government increase the ef ciency of government-•owned and leased buildings to 5–6 stars through an energy retro t program.

Other suggestions included a number of transport, infrastructure and agricultural•demonstration projects.

Stakeholders generally support demonstration projects as an effective means of educating the•community and other sectors on how new technologies can work.


The government is demonstrating new technologies and innovation in design by setting stringent• fuel consumption standards for government vehicles, purchasing hybrid vehicles, installing solarpanels and other energy ef ciency devices in Queensland schools and constructing all newbuildings to a 4½ -star energy ef ciency rating.

2. How could the Queensland Government support research and development in greenhousegas reductions?

What did the community say?Stakeholders suggested a number of priority research projects including renewable electricity•generation technologies for Queensland, mapping of wind farm sites, geothermal research,identi cation of sites for large scale, decentralised solar energy installations, and solar poweredair conditioners.

Many stakeholders noted that government funding was essential for research, as well as to support•training for students.

A number of stakeholders were also of the view that partnerships with industry are needed to•further understand the research and development needs. Research centres were suggested as a wayto promote research.

How is the government responding?As outlined in earlier chapters, the Queensland Government is undertaking research across all of•the sectors to help Queenslanders understand, adapt and mitigate climate change, and supporting

research into new greenhouse-friendly technologies, such as carbon capture and storage,geothermal energy and wind power.




3. What could the Queensland Government do to further reduce its greenhousegas emissions?


Stakeholders discussed proposals to shift to renewable energy for all government buildings.A number of stakeholders identi ed options to reduce government transport emissions including:•

Convert “back to base” eets to natural gas.•Direct all departments to increase the low emission eet to 60 per cent over a 3 year period.•Undertake a full lifecycle energy and emission analysis for LPG or CNG gas.•Provide end-of-trip facilities.•Engage employees in TravelSmart programs.•Provide exible work arrangement for employees.•

Many stakeholders support the government’s initiative to improve the star rating of new buildings•and suggested other options including:

Lead by example with 5-6 stars or more.•Require all lights to be turned off at night in government buildings.•Implement a green star rating requirement for new and retro tted premises.•Address combustion of diesel in generators and the leakage of hydro uorocarbons from chillers.•Trial low emission technologies in government-owned buildings as part of demonstration projects.•Undertake energy audits for all government departments.•

How is the government responding?The government is being proactive in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions through a variety of•initiatives and a multi-tiered approach that targets day-to-day operations and strategic investments.

Measures include: offsetting government travel; managing water through the Water Smart Buildings•Program; increasing the fuel ef ciency of government vehicles; and implementing a Strategic EnergyEf ciency Policy for Government Buildings.

ClimateQ• initiatives that reduce the government’s greenhouse gas emissions include the EnergyEf ciency Retro t Program, 5 star rating for new government-owned of ce buildings and ClimateReady Infrastructure Grants.




Raising awareness in the of ce environmentAfter 80 per cent of its members expressed concerns about climate change last year, the QueenslandPublic Sector Union (QPSU) in partnership with the Australian Conservation Foundation, created the

‘Climate Heroes’ program to stimulate community action on climate change in the workplace,communities and at home.

Over 500 Queenslanders have since signed up as Climate Heroes. The ongoing campaign alsoencourages over 30 000 QPSU members to get active on climate change. Climate Heroes are sentregular information updates on how to make positive changes such as reducing waste, switching togreen power where possible, actively lobbying elected representatives and participating in communityactivities such as Earth Hour.

Every month the Climate Heroes complete “hero missions” around themes like sustainable food,transport and energy ef ciency. They share the information with colleagues, family and friends.

So far, missions have included sustainable transport options, energy ef cient practices for lighting andcomputer systems, reducing of ce waste, cutting down on paper usage, reducing water consumption,workplace participation in environmental events and ‘sustainable’ Christmas parties.

Climate Heroes empowers workers to feel like they can raise issues with their local and departmentalmanagement to make big differences. Some departments have already taken the initiative and formed“sustainability committees” to build a good relationship between the management and employees onthese important issues.

If the Climate Heros program is successful, the collaborative model may be expanded to includeother unions.




17.5 Recent and newinitiativesEnergy Ef ciency Retro tProgramAs announced in the 2009–10 State Budget, theQueensland Government will invest $8 million toprogressively retro t existing government buildingsto increase their energy ef ciency. This willpermanently reduce the level of greenhouse gasemissions linked to energy consumption by thesebuildings. The retro ts will aim to achieve a 5-star(out of 5) non-residential energy performance

standard for the particular type of building wherepractical to do so.

Examples of government facilities to be consideredby the program include schools, hospitals, agedcare and other community health facilities, of cebuildings, police stations, emergency servicesbuildings, TAFE colleges, correctional centres,research facilities and public housing.

Retro ts will be tailored to the speci c buildingand may include:

installation of solar panels and energy• ef cient lighting

other energy ef cient equipment such as•updated air conditioning

alternative water heating systems, such as solar •

innovative application of energy ef cient•technologies, such as buildings not previouslyconsidered for these technologies.

Five star rating for newgovernment-owned of cebuildingsThe current ClimateSmart 2050 strategy requires aminimum 4 ½-star energy performance standardfor new government of ce buildings. TheQueensland Government will increase its energyef ciency performance standard for all newgovernment-owned of ce buildings to target a

5-star (out of 5) non-residential energy performancestandard (where practical to do so).

Climate ready infrastructuregrantsThe Queensland Government will invest $800 000and partner with local government to ensure thatgreenhouse gas reduction and climate changeadaptation considerations are addressed inapplications for state government grants for

new infrastructure.






Term Expla na tion

ABARE Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

ACALET Australian Coal Association Low Emissions Technologies Limited

AR4 The Fourth Assessment Report by the IPCC

BoM Bureau of Meteorology

BSES Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations

CCAF Climate Change Action Fund

CCBS Climate, Community and Biodiversity standards

CCIS Climate Change Impact Statement

CCS Carbon Capture and Storage

CFCs chloro uorocarbons

CGI Carbon Geostorage Initiative

CNG compressed natural gas

COAG Council of Australian Governments

CO2 carbon dioxide

CO2-e carbon dioxide equivalent

CPRS Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

CSIRO Commonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation.

DEM Digital Elevation Model

EITE emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries

List of shortened forms




Term Explana tion

ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomena

ETS Emissions Trading Scheme

GDP gross domestic product

GEMS Government Energy Management Strategy

GNP gross national product

GSP gross state product

IGCC Integrated Gasi cation Combined Cycle

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LNG lique ed natural gas

LPG lique ed petroleum gas

MACC Marginal Abatement Cost Curve

NCCARF National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

NETT National Emissions Trading Taskforce

NGERS National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System

NGGI National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

OCC Of ce of Climate Change

OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

PCC Post combustion capture technology

PCCC Premier’s Council on Climate Change

QCCCE Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence

QGS Queensland Gas Scheme

QREF Queensland Renewable Energy Fund

QSEIF Queensland Sustainable Energy Innovation Fund

QTPS Queensland Timber Plantation Strategy

RFS Rural Fire Service

RET Renewable Energy Target




Term Expla na tion

RLEET Renewable and Low Emission Energy Target

RWUE Rural Water Use Ef ciency Initiative

SEQ south-east Queensland

SES State Emergency Services

SESF SmartEnergy Savings Fund

SESP SmartEnergy Savings Program

SLATS Statewide Landcover and Trees Study

SME small-medium enterprise

TOD Transport Oriented Development

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

VET vocational education and training

WMO World Meteorological Organisation






Aba tement . Activity that is likely to result insubstantial emissions reductions or offsetgreenhouse emissions.

Ada pta tion. Adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or expectedclimatic changes or their effects. Adaptationincludes the actions of adjusting practices,processes, and capital responses to the actualityor threat of climate change. It refers to planned orautonomous adjustments in the system (natural,production, human) and can reduce harmful effectsor exploit opportunities.

Aerosols. Small particles or droplets in theatmosphere which are both natural and humanproduced. Though some aerosols cool the

atmosphere and some warm the atmosphere, theirnet effect is a direct cooling in uence on climate byreecting sunlight back into space. The increase ofaerosols in the atmosphere is thought to be maskingthe upward trend in global temperatures. They alsohave an indirect effect by acting as condensationnuclei to increase cloud formation.

Afforest a tion. Planting new trees on previouslyunforested land (that did not contain forest for over50 years).

Annex B count ries/pa rties . Industrialised countriesand economies in transition countries listed inAnnex B to the Kyoto Protocol that have emissionsreductions targets for the period 2008–12.

Annex I count ries/pa rties . Industrialised countriesand economies in transition listed in Annex I to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange. They include the 24 original Organisationfor Economic Cooperation and Developmentmembers, the countries of the European Union,and 14 countries with economies in transition.

Anthropogenic. Produced or caused by humanactivity.

Bagasse. Fibrous residue derived from sugar caneafter it has been crushed.

Bali Road map. The key decisions agreed at the2007 Bali Climate Change Conference, charting theway for the UN negotiations on a post-2012 UNclimate agreement.

Biodiversity. The variety of all life forms: the differentplants, animals and micro-organisms, the genes theycontain and the ecosystems they form.

Biomass. A general term for living material—plants,animals, fungi, bacteria. Biomass energy is derivedfrom plant and animal material, such as wood fromforests, residues from agricultural and forestryprocesses, and industrial, human or animal wastes.

Biogas. Generated when bacteria degradebiological material in the absence of oxygen,known as anaerobic digestion. Since biogas isa mixture of methane and carbon dioxide it is arenewable fuel produced from waste treatment.

Biosequestration. The removal and storage ofatmospheric greenhouse gases through biologicalprocesses; for example, photosynthesis in plantsand trees; for example, photosynthesis and storageof carbon in plants and trees.

Business a s usual. A scenario of future greenhousegas emissions that assumes that there would be nomajor changes in policies on mitigation.

Glossary




Ca p a nd Trad e scheme. The ‘Cap and Trade’ orEmissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is a market-basedapproach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions bysetting a limit on emissions able to be emitted anddividing this limit into tradeable units (permits).One permit is usually equal to one tonne ofgreenhouse gas. Emitters are then required topurchase one permit for each tonne of greenhousegas they emit. Only large emitters representing asigni cant source of emissions are required topurchase permits. It uses a price mechanism tochange behaviour and lets the market determinethe lowest cost abatement opportunities.

Carbon budget. The amount of carbon (oremissions, expressed as carbon dioxide

equivalent) allowed to be released over a numberof years, by a given party or parties.

Ca rbon Ca pture and St orag e. The process ofcapturing CO 2 from emission sources such aspower stations or industrial facilities, transportingit, and storing it so that it is prevented fromentering the atmosphere.

Ca rbon–clima te feedba ck. See feedback.

Ca rbon cycle. The term used to describe themovement of carbon in various forms (for example,as carbon dioxide or methane) through theatmosphere, ocean, plants, animals and soils.

Ca rbon dioxide eq uivalent (CO 2-e) . A measure thatallows for the comparison of different greenhousegases in terms of their global warming potential.

Ca rbon dioxide eq uivalent concentration. The concentration of carbon dioxide (measuredin parts per million) that would lead to the sameamount of radiative forcing as a given mixture of

carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.Ca rbon dioxide eq uivalent emissions. The amountof carbon dioxide emissions that would cause thesame integrated radiative forcing, over a given timehorizon, as an emitted amount of a well-mixedgreenhouse gas. The equivalent carbon dioxideemission is obtained by multiplying the emissionof a well-mixed greenhouse gas by its globalwarming potential for the given time period.

Ca rbon fa rming. Carbon farming is the cultivation

of trees in order to sequester carbon.

Carbon footprint. A form of carbon calculationused to calculate the total amount of greenhouseemissions caused directly or indirectly by anindividual, organization, event or product. Directemissions include the burning of fossil fuels forenergy and transportation. Indirectemissions result from the whole lifecycle ofproducts, which range from procuring raw materialsto waste management. An individual,organisation’s or country’s carbon footprint ismeasured by undertaking a GHG emissionsassessment.

Carbon price. The price at which emissions permitscan be traded, nationally or internationally.

Carbon s ink or reservoir. Parts of the carbon cyclethat store carbon in various forms.

Climate corridors. Connecting ecosystems acrossthe landscape to enable species to shift to suitablenew habitats in response to climate impacts.

Clima te cha nge. A change in the state of theclimate that can be identi ed (for example, byusing statistical tests) by changes in the meanand/or the variability of its properties, and thatpersists for an extended period, typically decadesor longer.

Clima te sens itivity. A measure of the climatesystem’s response to sustained radiative forcing.Climate sensitivity is de ned as the global averagesurface warming that will occur when the climatereaches equilibrium following a doubling of carbondioxide concentrations.

Climat e variability. Climate variability refers tovariations beyond the mean state of the climate onall scales of time and space beyond that of

individual weather events.CO2-e. See carbon dioxide equivalent.

Cost-bene t a nalysis. An analysis that comparespresent values of all bene ts less those of relatedcosts when bene ts can be valued in dollars thesame way as costs. A cost-bene t analysis isperformed in order to select the alternative thatmaximizes the bene ts of a program.




CSIRO. The Commonwealth Scienti c and IndustrialResearch Organisation is Australia’s nationalscience agency and one of the largest and mostdiverse research agencies in the world.

Deforestation . Conversion of forest to non-forested land.

Direct e miss ions. Emissions from sources withinthe boundary or control of an organisation’s orfacility’s (or individual’s) processes or actions.They can include emissions from fuel combustion(for example, in transport) and non-combustionemissions arising from physical or chemicalprocesses (for example, in agricultural productionor industrial manufacturing).

Dryland salinity. Where water balance has beenaltered due to changing land use (e.g. clearing ofnative vegetation for broadacre farming or grazing),excess water entering the watertable mobilises saltwhich then rises to the land surface. Movement ofwater drives salinisation processes and may movethe stored salt towards the soil surface or intosurface water bodies.

Ecosystem. A dynamic complex of plant, animal andmicro-organism communities and their non-livingenvironment interacting as a functional unit.

El Niño – S outhern Oscillat ion (ENSO). This refersto the widespread year-to-year oscillations inatmospheric pressure, ocean temperatures andrainfall associated with El Niño (warming of theoceans in the equatorial eastern and centralPaci c) and its opposite La Niña. During the El Niñophase parts of Australia may experience drought,while during La Niña more tropical cyclones aroundAustralia may be generated.

Emissions (or carbon) intensity . A measure of theamount of carbon dioxide, or other greenhousegases, emitted per unit of, for example, electricity,energy output or kilometre of travel.

Emiss ions limit or emiss ions ca p. A limit on thenumber of tonnes of greenhouse gases that canbe emitted under an emissions trading scheme.The limit could apply to the whole economy,or to the sectors covered under the scheme.

Emissions permit. See permit.

Emiss ions tra ding s cheme. See ‘Cap and Trade’scheme.

Energy ef ciency. The ratio of energy requiredto produce a certain level of a service, such askilowatt hours per unit of heat or light.

Energy eq uivalence ra ting (residential) . Rates aresidence’s design performance out of 10 toachieve a comfortable indoor temperature andincludes building design features such asinsulation, orientation and cross ventilation. Itdoes not rate energy consumption of appliances,such as dishwashers, fridges and air conditioners.

Energy performa nce st and a rd (non residential) .Rates commercial and other non-residentialbuildings’ energy ef ciency out of 5 taking intoaccount the amount of energy it consumes in itsday-to-day operation, such as lifts, air conditioningand lighting.

Enteric fermentation. Part of the digestive processof ruminant animals, such as cows and sheep, thatresults in the release of methane.

Evapotranspiration. Water loss from the combinedeffects of evaporation from the soil and surfacewater bodies and transpiration from vegetation.

Feedback. An interaction mechanism betweenprocesses, where the result of an initial processtriggers changes in a second process and that inturn in uences the initial one. A positive feedbackintensi es the original process, and a negativefeedback reduces it.

Geothermal. The generation of power from heatstored below the earth’s surface.

Geosequestration. Injection of carbon dioxidedirectly into underground geological formations.

Global warming potential. The index used to

translate the level of emissions of greenhousegases into a common measure in order to comparethe relative radiative forcing of different gaseswithout directly calculating the changes inatmospheric concentrations.

Greenhouse effect. The effect created bygreenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere thatallows short-wavelength (visible) solar radiation toreach the surface, but absorbs the long-wavelengthradiation that is re ected back, leading to awarming of the surface and lower atmosphere.




Convention on Climate Change in 1997. It enteredinto force in 2005.

La Niña. The extensive cooling of the central andeastern Paci c Ocean. It is the conventionalmeteorological label for the opposite of the betterknown El Niño. In Australia (particularly easternAustralia), La Niña events are associated withincreased probability of wetter conditions.

Long-lived g reenhouse ga ses . A term used toidentify the selection of greenhouse gases coveredby the Kyoto Protocol to distinguish them fromozone and water vapour, both of which areremoved from the atmosphere relatively quickly.

Long-wa velength ra diat ion. Thermal radiation,or heat, emitted by the earth’s surface, theatmosphere and the clouds. It is also knownas ‘infrared radiation’.

Madden-Julian events. The Madden JulianOscillation (MJO) is a tropical atmosphericphenomenon, which develops over the IndianOcean and travels eastward through the tropics.With a timescale ranging from 30 to 60 days, theMJO has a frequency of 6 to 12 events per year.

Market failure. A market failure occurs when priceswithin a market do not accurately re ect the truecosts of producing goods and services. Costs whichare traditionally absent from market pricing includeenvironmental, resource scarcity and social costs.One way to correct this market failure for climatechange is to price greenhouse gas emissions ina way that re ects its true cost.

Mitigation. A reduction in the source of, orenhancement of the sinks for, greenhouse gases.

Offsets. Reductions or removals of greenhousegas emissions that are used to counterbalanceemissions elsewhere in the economy.

Permit or emissions permit . A certi cate createdunder an emissions trading scheme that enablesthe holder to emit a speci ed amount ofgreenhouse gases, generally one tonne of carbondioxide equivalent.

Photovoltaic (PV) process. The process ofconverting sunlight into electricity using speciallydesign silicon cells.

Greenhouse ga s. Any gas that absorbs infraredradiation in the atmosphere. This property causesthe greenhouse effect. With the exception of Chapter2, where a wider range of greenhouse gases arediscussed, the term ‘greenhouse gases’ in thisreport relates to those gases covered by the KyotoProtocol, which are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,methane, sulphur hexa uoride, per uorocarbons(PFCs) and hydrouorocarbons (HFCs).

Gross Domes tic P roduct (GDP). The total marketvalue of all goods and services produced in acountry in 1 year. GDP is a key measure of the valueof economic production in the economy. It does notinclude income from overseas investments andearnings.

Gross National Product (GNP). The value of all goodsand services produced in a country in 1 year by itscitizens, plus income earned by its citizensoverseas, minus income earned by foreigners in thecountry. GDP measures what an economy produces;GNP measures what an economy can afford to buy.

Gross Sta te Product (GSP). The total market value ofall goods and services produced in the stateeconomy in 1 year.

Impact s (of clima te cha nge). The effects of climatechange on natural, productive and human systems.

Incremental ada ptat ion. Adaptation that isusually part of routine action with small changes inpractice. Incremental adaptation may be adequatein cases of low or moderate vulnerability.

Indirect emissions. Emissions that are a consequenceof the activities of an organisation (or individual)but originate from sources owned or controlledby another. Indirect emissions can refer to the

emissions attributable to the purchase of electricity,heat or steam from another party, and also fromactivities such as outsourcing and waste disposal.

IPCC. The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) is a United Nations scienti c bodythat provides authoritative scienti c informationfrom the world’s leading climate scientists andclimate modelling systems.

Kyoto Protocol. An amendment to the internationaltreaty on climate change, assigning mandatory

emission limitations for the reduction ofgreenhouse gas emissions. The agreement wasadopted under the United Nations Framework




Prima ry energy. Energy in the forms obtaineddirectly from nature, for example coal, natural gasor solar energy.

Reference case. In the Garnaut Climate ChangeReview modelling, the evolution of the global andAustralian economies and associated greenhousegas emissions to the end of the current century inthe absence of climate change.

Reforestation. Replanting of forests on lands thatonce contained forests but were converted to someother use (did not contain forest on31 December 1989).

Retro tting. Broad term that applies to any changeafter the original purchase of a building; addingequipment not a part of the original purchase.

Sensitivity. With respect to the climate system,the degree to which the system is affected, eitheradversely or bene cially, by climate-related stimuli.With respect to modelling, a sensitivity analysismay be used to assess how the variation of modelassumptions affects the output of that model.

Sequestration. Removal of carbon from theatmosphere by, and storage in, terrestrial ormarine reservoirs.

Severe wea ther event. An event that is rare within itsstatistical reference distribution at a particular place.The characteristics of what is called ‘severe weather’may vary from place to place. An ‘extreme climateevent’ is an average of a number of weather eventsover a certain period of time—an average that isitself extreme (for example, rainfall over a season).

Sink. See carbon sink.

Split Incentives. A signi cant barrier to energy

ef ciency between investors and energy end-users .

Solar radiat ion. Electromagnetic radiation emittedby the sun and contains a very broad and almostcontinuous range of wavelengths. It is also referredto as ‘short-wavelength radiation’.

Solar thermal. Uses radiation from the sun toproduce heat energy.

Stabilisation. In the climate change context,keeping constant the atmospheric concentrations

of one or more greenhouse gases (such as carbondioxide) or of a carbon dioxide equivalentconcentration of a mix of greenhouse gases.

St orm surge. A temporary increase, at a particularlocation, in the height of the sea due to extrememeteorological conditions (low atmosphericpressure and/or strong winds). A storm surge isthe excess above the level expected from the tidalvariation alone at that time and place.

Thermal expa nsion. In connection with sea-level,the increase in volume (and decrease in density)that results from warming water. A warming of theocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volumeand hence to sea-level rise.

Trad e-expos ed, emiss ions-intensive indus tries . Industries with product prices that are set by worldmarkets and that produce signi cant emissionsduring their production processes.

Trans forma tional a da pta tion. Adaptation that isnot usually part of routine action that requiressigni cant changes of practice. Transformationaladaptation may be required in cases of extremeor high vulnerability.

Trans it oriented development . The integration ofurban development and transport infrastructure toprovide a wider choice of housing options andimprove people’s access to work, shopping,community and recreational facilities.

Trans ition countries . Countries in central andeastern Europe and the former Soviet Unionde ned in the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change and the KyotoProtocol as ‘undergoing the process of transitionto a market economy’.

Ultraviolet radia tion. The high-energy, invisiblepart of the spectrum of light emitted by the sun.The majority of ultraviolet radiation is absorbed

by the layer of ozone in the stratosphere.United Na tions Framew ork Convention on Climat eCha ng e (UNFCCC). The United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change is the primary forumfor negotiating a global agreement on how theworld should deal with climate change.

Urba n footprint. De nes the future shape anddirection of urban development in a region andprovides enough land for future growth, whilecovering existing and green eld areas.




Vector-borne dis ea se . A disease that is transmittedbetween hosts by a vector organism (such as amosquito or tick—for example, dengue fever).

Vulnerab ility. Vulnerability to climate change re ectssituations where components of a natural, humanor production system are: (1) likely to be more highlyexposed to climate change; (2) relatively sensitiveto adverse climate change; and (3) have adaptivemechanisms that are either ineffective or unlikelyto be applied at the necessary scale.

* De nitions are taken from the Garnaut Climate ChangeReview and IPCC wherever possible.




List of gures and ta bles

FiguresFigure 1.1 The natural and enhanced greenhouse effect

Figure 2.1 Example of how an emissions price will ow through the economy

Figure 3.1 Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2005

Figure 3.2 Australian greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1990 and 2007

Figure 3.3 Proportion of Queensland emissions by sector 1990 and 2007

Figure 3.4 Queensland Gross State Product (GSP) and population forecast compared togreenhouse gas emissions

Figure 3.5 Queensland’s projected emissions pro le under a business-as-usual scenario

Figure 4.1 The observed and projected concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere

Figure 4.2 Time-series (1850–2007) of annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (bars)

Figure 4.3 Time-series (1910–2007) of annual Australian mean surface temperature anomalies (bars)

Figure 4.4 Trends in mean annual temperature (expressed as °C per 10 years) across Australiafrom 1950 to 2007

Figure 4.5 Trends in annual rainfall (expressed as millimetres per 10 years) for (a) 1900–2007and (b) 1950–2007

Figure 4.6 Time-series (1910–2007) of Queensland’s annual mean surface temperatureanomalies (bars)

Figure 4.7 Trend in Queensland annual average temperature 1950–2007 (expressed as °C per 10 years)

Figure 4.8 Best estimate (50th percentiles) of projected change to annual and seasonal mean

temperatures (°C) by 2050 for the low (B1 – left column) and high (A1FI - right column)emissions scenarios

Figure 4.9 Best estimate (50th percentiles) of projected change to annual and seasonal meantemperatures (°C) by 2070 for the low (B1 – left column) and high (A1FI - right column)emissions scenarios

Figure 4.10 Long-term average annual and seasonal Queensland rainfall for 1910–2007 (leftcolumn) and 1950–2007 (right column) (expressed as mm per day)

Figure 4.11 Time-series (1900–2007) of Queensland’s annual rainfall anomalies (bar)

Figure 4.12 Linear trends for annual and seasonal values of Queensland rainfall for 1910–2007(left column) and 1950–2007 (right column) (expressed as percentage of mean rainfallper decade)




Figure 4.13 Best estimate (50th percentiles) of projected change to annual and seasonal rainfall(%) by 2050 for the low (B1 - left column) and high (A1FI - right column) emissions scenarios

Figure 4.14 Best estimate (50th percentiles) of projected change to annual and seasonal rainfall(%) by 2070 for the low (B1 - left column) and high (A1FI - right column) emissions scenarios

Figure 4.15 Long-term average annual and seasonal pan evaporation for Queensland for 1975–2007 (expressed as mm per day)

Figure 4.16 Linear trends for annual and seasonal values of pan evaporation for 1975–2007 forQueensland (expressed as percentage of mean evaporation per decade)

Figure 4.17 Best estimate (50th percentiles) of projected change to annual and seasonal potentialevapo-transpiration (%) by 2050 for the low (B1 - left column) and high (A1FI – rightcolumn) emissions scenarios

Figure 4.18 Best estimate (50th percentiles) of projected change to annual and seasonal potentialevapo-transpiration (%) by 2070 for the low (B1 - left column) and high (A1FI – rightcolumn) emissions scenarios

Figure 4.19 A comparison of the current drought episode in south-east Queensland with that ofthe Federation Drought

Figure 5.1 Queensland regions

Figure 5.2 Annual average temperature (1971–2000) with the ‘best estimate’ projected changesby 2070 for a high emissions scenario

Figure 5.3 Annual total rainfall (1971-2000) with the ‘best estimate’ projected changes and rangeof changes by 2070 for a high emissions scenario

Figure 6.1 The expected market costs for Australia of unmitigated climate change to 2100

Figure 6.2 Projected changes to GSP to 2099

Figure 6.3 A comparison of the modelled expected market costs for Australia of unmitigated andmitigated climate change up to 2100

Figure 6.4 Change in annual GNP growth (percentage points lost or gained) due to net mitigationcosts under a 550 ppm strategy in Australia

Figure 6.5 Average change in annual GSP growth (percentage points lost or gained) due tomitigation costs under the 550 ppm backstop scenario in Australia, 2013-2100

Figure 6.6 Change in Australian sectoral growth rates (percentage points lost or gained) due tonet mitigation costs under the 550 ppm scenario compared with no mitigation

Figure 9.1 Queensland marginal abatement cost curve (cumulative to 2050)—potentialabatement opportunities

Figure 10.1 Key sectoral in uences on Queensland emissions

Figure 10.2 Queensland energy sector emissions projections (excluding transport)

Figure 12.1 Emissions projections to 2050 for Australian residential and commercial sector buildings

Figure 13.1 Typical Queensland household electricity use

Figure 13.2 Queensland business-as-usual emissions projections for the residential sector

Figure 13.3 Expenditure on basic goods as a share of disposable income

Figure 14.1 Queensland’s major primary industries 2008–2009

Figure 14.2 Queensland primary industries emissions sources in 1990 and 2007

Figure 14.3 Queensland land clearing emissions projections to 2050




Figure 15.1 Queensland transport emissions by sector

Figure 15.2 Queensland’s transport emissions trends 1990–2007

Figure 15.3 Queensland’s transport emissions projections to 2050

Figure 16.1 Map of the predicted vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate changeFigure 16.2 Projected changes to rainforest in the Wet Tropics

TablesTable 3.1 Australia’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions by state

Table 5.1 Number of projected days per year above 35 °C for a range of emissions scenarios inregional centres

Table 6.1 Queensland sectors and forecast costs from unmitigated climate change

Table 6.2 Changes to gross output by sector, 2050Table 6.3 Garnaut Review estimate of climate change impacts on Queensland under no

mitigation and mitigation scenarios

Table 7.1 Impact of carbon prices on different Australian household types

Table 8.1 Progress snapshot of ClimateSmart 2050 initiatives (as at January 2009)

Table 8.2 Progress snapshot of ClimateSmart Adaptation 20 07–12 initiatives (as at January 2009)

Table 10.1 Energy sector emissions in 1990 and 2007

Table 10.2 Electricity generation and greenhouse gas emissions by fuel type and installedcapacity in Queensland 2007–2008

Table 12.1 Challenges to reducing emissions in the building sector








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Vol. 53, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, viewed June, 2008. <http://72.14.235.132/search?q=cache:ohvrQsxwblsJ:parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/repository1/library/jrnart/w27g60.pdf+http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/repository1/library/jrnart/w27g60.pdf&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au>.

Steffen W, Love G and Whetton P 2006, ‘Approaches to de ning dangerous climate change: a southernhemisphere perspective’. In Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T and Yohe G (eds.)Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change , Cambridge University Press.

Stern N 2006, The Economi cs of Cli mate Chan ge: The Stern Review , Her Majesty’s Treasury, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, viewed April 2007,<http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm>.

Stokes CJ and Howden SM 2008, An overview of climate change adaptation in Australian pr imary ind ustri es– imp acts, opti ons and prior iti es , CSIRO, February 2008, Report prepared for the National ClimateChange Research Strategy for Primary Industries.

Tans P 2008, Trends in Atmosph eric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa , National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration/Earth Systems Research Laboratory, viewed December 2008,<http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/>.

The Nous Group and SKM (Sinclair Knight Mertz) 2008, Queensland Margi nal Abatement Cost Curve .

Timbal B, Murphy BF, Fernandez E, and Li Z 2007, Final Project Report s , South Eastern Australian Climateinitiative, Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, viewed June 2008,<www.mdbc.gov.au/subs/seaci/docs/reports/SEACIFinalProjectReportsDec07.pdf>.

Wachenfeld D, Johnson J, Skeat A, Kenchington R, Marshall P and Innes J 2007, ‘Chapter 1. Introduction tothe Great Barrier Reef and Climate Change’. In Johnson, JE and Marshall PA (eds) Climate Change andthe Great Barr ier Reef , Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Of ce,Australia.

Williams SE, Bolitho EE and Fox S 2003, Climate Change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impendingenvironmental catastrophe, Royal Society London, London.

WTMA (Wet Tropics Management Authority) 2008, State of the Wet Tropics Report 20 07–200 8 , ClimateChange- Impacts and Responses, Wet Tropics Management Authority, Australian Government, Cairns,viewed November 2008, <http://www.wettropics.gov.au/media/media_pdf/annual_reports/2008sowt_report_climatechange.pdf>.




Appendices


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Appendix 1List of s takeholders

Sta keholder Posta l Address

Queensland Farmers’ Federation PO Box 12009,George Street QLD 4003

Queensland Council of Social Service PO Box 3786,South Brisbane QLD 4101

Commerce Queensland Industry House375 Wickham TceBrisbane QLD 4000

Queensland Resources Council Level 13133 Mary StBrisbane QLD 4000

Property Council of Australia Level 3232 Adelaide StreetBrisbane QLD 4000

AgForce PO Box 13162George Street QLD 4003

Brisbane City Council PO Box 1434Brisbane QLD 4001

RACQ PO Box 4Springwood QLD 4113

Australian Industry Group PO Box 128Spring Hill QLD 4004

Housing Industry Association 14 Edmonstone StreetSouth Brisbane QLD 4101

Queensland Conservation Council 166 Ann StBrisbane QLD 4000

Urban Development Institute of Australia GPO Box 2279Brisbane QLD 4001

ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland A1



Stakeholder Posta l Address

Queensland Tourism Industry Council PO Box 13162Brisbane QLD 4000George Street QLD 4003

Queensland Council of Mayors GPO Box 1434Brisbane QLD 4001

Timber Queensland PO Box 2014Fortitude Valley BC QLD 4006

Cement Australia PO Box 1328Milton QLD 4064

Local Government Association of Qld Inc. PO Box 2230Newstead QLD 4006Fortitude Valley BC QLD 4006

Clean Energy Council Suite 20118 Kavanagh StSouthbank VIC 3006

Rail, Tram and Bus Union Level 1457 Upper Edward StreetBrisbane QLD 4000

WWF Level 3129 Margaret StPO Box 15404Brisbane QLD 4000CITY EAST QLD 4002

The Wilderness Society Level 1136 Boundary StPO Box 5427West End QLD 4101West End QLD 4101

ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandA2



# Name or Organisation Submission Group

1 James Emmett 18/09/08 Individual

2 Mike McKeown 23/09/08 Individual

3 Tom Gordon 25/09/08 Individual

4 Mark Taylor 1/10/08 Individual

5 Norbert Menke 1/10/08 Individual

6 A/Professor Ahmad Zahedi 7/10/08 Individual

7 Phil Browne 8/10/08 Individual

8 Case Smit 22/10/08 individual

9 Fleur Carter 22/10/08 Individual

10 Lee Milcherdy 22/10/08 Individual

11 David Nixon 22/10/08 Individual

12 Forestry Plantations Queensland 23/10/08 Government

13 Alan Brake 23/10/08 Individual

14 Rail, Tram and Bus Union 24/10/08 Industry

15 BCC 24/10/08 Government (local Government)

16 Sunshine Coast Regional Council 24/10/08 Government (local Government)

17 Wet Tropics Management Authority 24/10/08 Government

18 Gary McMahon 24/10/08 Individual

19 Darli Anynsley 25/10/08 Individual

20 BG Group 26/10/08 Industry

Appendix 2Submissions received




21 Matt Mushalik 27/10/08 Individual

22 RACQ 27/10/08 Industry

23 Shay Gordon-Brown 27/10/08 Individual

24 Philisha Riddell 27/10/08 Individual

25 Rio Tinto 27/01/1900 Industry

26 The Carbon Sense Coalition 27/10/08 Other

27 Rotec Design Ltd 27/10/08 Industry

28 Timber Queensland 27/10/08 Industry

29 Santos 27/10/08 Industry

30 Alternative Technology Association 27/10/08 Environment

31 Parsons Brinckerhoff 27/10/08 Industry

32 Perpetuwave Power Pty Ltd 27/10/08 Industry

33 Ipswich City Council 27/10/08 Government (local government)

34 APA Group 27/10/08 Industry

35 UDIA 27/10/08 Industry

36 Chris McGrath 27/10/08 Individual

37 QCOSS 27/10/08 Community

38 Queensland Public Sector Union 27/10/08 Community

39 Jan Punter 27/10/08 Individual

40 Sunshine Coast Environment Council 27/10/08 Environment

41 Save the Mary River Coordinating Group 27/10/08 Environment

42 Gold Coast City Council 27/10/08 Government (local government)

43 Environmental Defenders Of ce 28/10/08 Environment

44 Peter Biddle 23/10/08 Individual

45 CS Energy 27/10/08 Government body

46 Origin Energy 28/10/08 Industry

47 Queensland Youth Environmental Council 28/10/08 Other

ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandA4



48 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 29/10/08 Other

49 Energy Supply Association of Australia 29/10/08 Industry

50 Queensland Resources Council 29/10/08 Industry

51 Queensland Conservation Council 30/10/08 Environment

52 Queensland Treasury Corporation 30/10/08 Government body

53 V.D. Burnett 30/10/08 Individual

54 Council of Mayors (SEQ). 30/10/08 Government (local government)

55 Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists 30/10/08 Other

56 Ergon Energy Corporation Limited and ENERGEX Limited 30/10/08 Government body

57 Qld NRM Groups Collective 30/10/08 Environment

58 Local Government Association Queensland Government (local government)

59 Sustainable Communities - EPA Government

60 CSR 31/10/08 Industry

61 Manildra Group (Food industry) 3/11/08 Industry

62 Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association 3/11/08 Industry

63 Sustainable Energy Policy Queensland 3/11/08 Environment

64 Queensland Tourism Industry Council 3/11/08 Industry

65 Queensland Farmers Federation 3/11/08 Industry

66 AI Group 3/11/08 Industry

67 Torres Strait Regional Authority 6/11/08 Environment

68 Growcom 19/11/08 Industry

69 WWF 26/11/08 Environment

70 Green Cross Australia 26/11/08 Community

71 Department of Infrastructure and Planning 26/11/08 Government

72 Queensland Water 11/12/08 Government body

73 Housing Industry Association 30/10/08 Industry

74 Property Council of Australia 19/03/09 Industry



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Appendix 3Regional clima te change summaries


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Climate change in theCape York Region

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate change forthe Cape York (CY) region.

Projected average temperature,

rainfall and evapora tion for2030, 2050 and 2070 under low,medium and high greenhousega s emissions s cenarios arecompared with h istorica lclimate records.

P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d

Rainfall DataTemperature Data

CookShire

Council

AurukunShire

Council

PormpuraawShire

Council

Lockhart River Shire

Council

NapranumShire

Council

HopeValeShireCouncil

Northern Peninsula AreaRegional Council

MapoonShire

Council

TorresShire

Council

Torres Strait IslandRegional Council

Weipa Aero

Palmerville


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Key ndings

Tempera tureThere has been minimal change in the average annual temperature•over the last decade (from 26.5 °C to 26.4 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 3.7 °C by 2070, leading•to annual temperatures well beyond those experienced over thelast 50 years.

By 2070, Weipa may have more than three times the number of•days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 55 per year to anaverage of 189 per year by 2070) and Palmerville may have morethan double the number of days over 35 °C (increasing from anaverage of 97 per year to an average of 210 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade remained stationary•compared to the previous 30 years.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an•annual increase of 24 per cent to a decrease of 21 per cent by 2070.The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decreaseunder all emissions scenarios.

EvaporationProjections indicate potential evaporation could increase•

7–14 per cent by 2070.

Extreme eventsStorm surges will be able to penetrate further inland greatly•increasing the risk to natural ecosystems, infrastructure and therisk of erosion in low-lying coastal regions.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe Cape York region has atropical climate with hot to veryhot temperatures experiencedthroughout the year. Rainfall inthe Cape York region is highlyseasonal, with most rain fallingduring the ‘wet’ season(October–March) either as heavy

thunderstorms, monsoonal lowsor cyclones.

The Cape York Peninsula issurrounded by the Gulf ofCarpentaria (west), Torres Strait(north) and the Coral Sea (east)and includes all estuaries, marineareas, reefs and islands withinthree nautical miles of the coast.

DemographicsThe Cape York region is sparselypopulated with an area of 124 473square kilometres and apopulation of approximately18 700 people. More than35 per cent of the residentpopulation is of Aboriginal orTorres Strait Islander descent.

(OESR, 2007)

Importa nt indust riesof the reg ionThe region has an establishedand rapidly expanding miningindustry (kaolin and bauxite),an emerging tourism industryas well as signi cant cattle and shing industries.



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Unders ta nding the clima teand how it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate change willlead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the risk of human-induced climate change requires an understanding of the current climateusing historical data and future climate scenarios. These future scenariosare prepared using data from Global Climate Models.

MethodHistorical climate da taHistorical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)were aggregated across the CY region. The uctuations and trends in

the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.

Greenhouse emiss ion scenariosThe World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nationsestablished the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)in 1988. The IPCC assesses the latest scienti c, technological andsocio-economic literature on climate change.

To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland, climate change projections were developed using theIPCC low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapidshift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B)scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. Thehigh (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.

Greenhouse gas emissions are currently tracking above the highestIPCC emissions scenario (A1FI). The low and medium scenarios arepresented to show the potential bene ts of action to reducegreenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change projections

Queensland climate change projections were produced by theCommonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation(CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on the resultsfrom 23 Global Climate Models. Projections were provided for 2030,2050 and 2070. However, as the climate can vary signi cantly fromone year to the next, these projections show changes in averageclimate for three future 30-year periods centered on 2030, 2050 and2070. Sea-level rise is also considered.

Current climateTemperature (BoM, 2008)Historical temperature records indicate the average temperature inthe CY region has remained stable over the last decade (1998–2007). P

h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d



The average annual temperature was 26.5 °C in the30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a 0.1 °Cincrease on the 1961–1990 average. The annualmaximum temperatures since 1950 are presented inFigure 1. The trend over time is represented by the blackline in each graph.

Tempera ture ext remes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uence

of regional topography, proximity to the ocean andprevailing winds, location-speci c data are requiredwhen considering changes in these extreme eventsover time.

Historical temperature records for Weipa (Figure 2)show that, in recent decades, the number of days eachyear where the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °Chas tended to increase. However, there is noobservable trend for Palmerville (Figure 3). Due to itsinland location, Palmerville currently experiences moreextreme temperature days than coastal Weipa.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

31323334

31.331.1

3132

3334

32.132.1

2930313233

30.830.6

2728293031

28.828.5

32333435

36

33.533.1

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

Figure 1: Historical annua l and sea sona lmaximum temperatures for the Cape York regionfor the period 1950–2007, compared to the ba seperiod 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.

The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.

Data source: BoM, 2008

Average maximum temperature ha s remainedstable in the Cape York region

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Weipa

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ° C.

‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notavailable (i.e. the a ctual values may be greater than wha tis sho wn).


The number of days over 35 ˚ C has risen in Weipa




Rainfall (BoM, 2008)Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors suchas topography and vegetation, and broader scaleweather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how thisnatural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns,long-term rainfall records are required. The BoMhas been collecting rainfall data for the Cape Yorkregion since 1897.

The variability in annual and seasonal rainfall

is outlined in Figure 4. The average annual rainfallin Cape York varies greatly from year to year. Over thelast decade the average has increased by six per centcompared to the 1961–1990 average; however, this iswell within the variability measured over the last100 years.

Figure 4 shows the dominant summer rainfall patternwith a 1961–1990 average rainfall around 820 mm,compared to an autumn average (the next mostdominant rainfall period) of around 420 mm.

01960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

20

40

60

80

100

Figure 3: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Pa lmerville

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not e xceed 35 °C.X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notavailable (i.e. the a ctual values may be g reater tha n whatis sho wn).


No observable change in the number of days over35 ˚ C in Palmerville

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a

l r a i n f a l l ( m m

)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

1000

1500

2000

400600800

100012001400

200400600800

1000

0

20

40

60

80

0

100

200

300

14401355(6.2%)

890821(8.5%)

418417(0.3%)

2826(8.2%)

11393(22.3%)

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfa ll for the Cape York region for the period1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve yea r running a verag e.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.

The difference in rainfall betwe en the bas eline and lastdeca de is show n in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.


Historical rainfall shows high variab ility



EvaporationPotential evaporation is a measure of the evaporative(or drying) power of the atmosphere. The potentialevaporation rate assumes that there is an unlimited

supply of water to evaporate (either from the soil orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporationcan differ from actual evaporation, a change inpotential evaporation gives a good indication of thechange in the evaporative power of the atmosphere.Networks to measure potential evaporation are not aswell developed as those that measure temperatureand rainfall and there are insuf cient data available toindicate the changes over time.

Averaged over the Cape York region, the annual meanpotential evaporation over the period 1971–2000

(2216 mm) is signi cantly greater than the annualmean rainfall over the same period (1431 mm),which is a contributing factor to the depletion ofsoil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effectssuch as extreme waves combine to create the totalcyclone hazard. This hazard is greatest in Queenslandbetween January and March, but tropical cyclones inQueensland can occur anytime over the period from

November to April.On average, 4.7 tropical cyclones per year affect theQueensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Areaof Responsibility. This area includes all ofQueensland, a large portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria,Northern NSW and extends out to 600 km off theQueensland coast.

In some areas of Queensland there is a relationshipbetween the impact of cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However,for northern Queensland regions, such as Cape York,this trend is not evident (Figure 5).

Projected clima te chang ein Cape YorkGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the Cape York region have beenextracted from this dataset for the Queensland ClimateChange Centre of Excellence (QCCCE). The projectionspresented here are relative to the base period of1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference underthe low, medium and high emissions scenarios to2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate change projectionsfor Cape York have been presented on a mid-rangeemissions scenario.

However, the projections diverge at 2050 underdifferent emissions scenarios. Therefore, the 2050and 2070 projections are based on low and highemissions scenarios.

The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for Cape York in2030, 2050 and 2070 are described in Table 2.

The numbers shown in brackets in Table 2 indicate therange of the results from the Global Climate Models.

N u m

b e r o

f c y c l o n e s

Decade 1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6

More La Niña events More El Niño events

Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2 6

1 9 0 7 – 1 9 1

602468

1012141618

Figure 5: Tota l and overland number of tropica lcyclones for Cape York Region for the period1907–2006Adapted from BoM, 2008

Occurrence of cyclones a cross the Cape York region




Overview of climate projectionsIn summary, the ‘best estimate’ changes totemperature and rainfall under the three emissionsscenarios are:

2030 (medium emissions scena rio)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annual meantemperature (the average of all daily temperatureswithin a given year) is projected to increase by0.8 °C. There is little variation in projections acrossthe seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : no change in theannual rainfall (the total rainfall received withina given year) is projected. The largest seasonaldecrease of three per cent (-3 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :across all seasons the annual ‘best estimate’increase is projected to be around three per cent(66 mm), with some models projecting up toa ve per cent increase in autumn (23 mm),summer (26 mm) and winter (25 mm).

2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature will increase by 1.0 °C and 1.7 °Cunder the low and high emissions scenarios

respectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to remain unchanged under the lowemissions scenario or decrease by one per cent(-14 mm) under the high emissions scenario.The largest seasonal decrease of six per cent(-6 mm) under the high emissions scenario isprojected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario an increase in

annual potential evaporation of up to nine per cent(199 mm) is projected with the best estimate beingsix per cent (133 mm). Autumn, summer and winterare projected to have the greatest increases upto 10 per cent (46mm, 53mm and 49 mmrespectively).

2070 (low a nd high emiss ions scena rios )Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.4 °C and2.7 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by one per cent (-14 mm)for each emissions scenario. The largest seasonaldecrease under a high emissions scenario of10 per cent (-10 mm) is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• :under a high emissions scenario, annual potentialevaporation is projected to increase by as much as14 per cent (310 mm). Autumn, summer and winterare projected to be the seasons most impactedwith increases up to 17 per cent (79 mm, 90 mmand 84 mm respectively) in some models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere willincrease the likelihood of a record high temperaturein a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for two observing stations in the Cape Yorkregion with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Weipa thenumber of hot days above 35 °C is projected to increasefrom 55 days to 189 days. Under the same scenario forPalmerville, the number of hot days would more thandouble, increasing from 97 days to 210 days.

Cyclones and sea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones, havea complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patternssuch as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepancies incyclone frequencies between different climate models.

189102118868255(125–263)(85–136)(91–162)(76–105)(74–92)

Weipa

21014215513611397(175–266)(126–175)(136–191)(113–142)(112–136)

Palmerville


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot da ys per year above 35 ˚ Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.



Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*

medium low high low high

Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 26.5 °C + 0.8[+0.6 to +1.1]

+ 1.0[+0.7 to +1.4]

+1.7[+1.2 to +2.3]

+1.4[+1.0 to +1.9]

+2.7[+1.9 to +3.7]

Summer 28.0 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.5]

+1.7[+1.2 to +2.4]

+1.4[+1.0 to +2.0]

+2.8[+1.9 to +3.9]

Autumn 26.5 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.0[+0.7 to +1.4]

+1.7[+1.2 to +2.4]

+1.4[+1.0 to +2.0]

+2.8[+1.9 to +3.8]

Winter 23.8 °C + 0.8[+0.6 to +1.1]

+ 1.0[+0.7 to +1.4]

+1.6[+1.1 to +2.3]

+1.4[+0.9 to +1.9]

+2.6[+1.8 to +3.7]

Spring 27.5 °C + 0.8[+0.6 to +1.1]

+ 1.0[+0.7 to +1.4]

+1.6[+1.1 to +2.3]

+1.3[+0.9 to +1.9]

+2.6[+1.8 to +3.6]

Rainfall%

Annual 1431 mm 0[-7 to +7]

0[-9 to +9]

-1[-14 to +15]

-1[-12 to +12]

-1[-21 to +24]

Summer 888 mm 0[-8 to +9]

0[-9 to +11]

0[-14 to +19]

0[-12 to +15]

0[-22 to +30]

Autumn 421 mm -1[-12 to +10]

-1[-14 to +12]

-2[-22 to +20]

-1[-18 to +17]

-3[-33 to +32]

Winter 24 mm -1[-18 to +14]

-1[-21 to +17]

-2[-33 to +28]

-2[-28 to +23]

-4[-46 to +45]

Spring 104 mm -3[-26 to +19]

-4[-28 to +22]

-6[-43 to +36]

-5[-38 to +30]

-10[-59 to +59]

Potentialevaporation%

Annual 2216 mm + 3[+2 to +4]

+ 3[+2 to +5]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 5[+3 to +7]

+ 10[+7 to +14]

Summer 531 mm + 3[+1 to +5]

+ 3[+2 to +4]

+ 6[+3 to +10]

+ 5[+2 to +9]

+ 10[+5 to +17]

Autumn 463 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 7[+4 to +10]

+ 6[+3 to +9]

+ 11[+6 to +17]

Winter 494 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 7[+4 to +10]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 11[+7 to +17]

Spring 726 mm + 3[+2 to +4]

+ 3[+2 to +5]

+ 5[+4 to +8]

+ 4[+3 to +6]

+ 9[+6 to +12]

Table 2. Summary of projections for Cape York** To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency off theEast Coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006),however they also simulate an increase in the numberof long-lived and severe (Category 3–5) easternAustralian tropical cyclones. Under three differentstudies the number of severe tropical cyclones isprojected to increase by 56 per cent by 2050(Walsh et al, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050 (Leslie et al,2007) and 140 per cent by 2070 respectively(Abbs et al, 2006).

With projected increases in the intensity of futurecyclones and projected rise in mean sea levels(CSIRO & BoM, 2007), storm surges will be able topenetrate further inland greatly increasing the riskto natural ecosystems, infrastructure and the risk oferosion in low-lying coastal regions.

According to the IPCC, global sea-level is projected torise by 18 to 59 cm by 2100, with a possible additionalcontribution from melting ice sheets of 10 to 20 cm(IPCC, 2007).

Impa cts of clima te chang e onthe Ca pe York reg ionProjections for the Cape York region include a slight

decline in rainfall with increasing temperature andevaporation, in conjunction with more extreme climateevents and sea-level rise. The temperature projectionsfor inaction on climate change suggest a temperatureincrease well outside the range of temperatures everexperienced over the last 50 years. The projectionsfor temperature and number of hot days are all inthe same direction—increasing.

Extreme storm events such as cyclones pose asigni cant risk to the communities of Cape York.A high proportion of Cape York’s population reside

in close proximity to the coast, greatly increasing thelikely consequence of cyclones. The riskiest areas arethose closest to the coast, which can incur ash ooding, wind damage and considerable structuraldamage from falling trees, affecting industry,infrastructure and roads.

For extensive agriculture, the combination of highrainfall (exceeding 1400 mm per year) and soils thatcontain very low concentrations of most nutrientsessential for plant growth gives rise to low beefproductivity in the Cape York region. Climate change

will bring further challenges for this industry,for example:

Higher temperatures are likely to exacerbate•existing problems of poor pasture quality.

Increased thermal stress of animals is very likely,•particularly away from the coastline. This can

reduce animal production, reproductiveperformance and increase mortality.

Tropical weeds may increase in abundance•and distribution.

Overall it is likely that pastures may decline•in quality, with potential for more woody and weedspecies causing lower animal production.

Sea-level rise will pose a particular challenge forthe coastlines and communities of Cape York. Duringinundation incidents, when a disruption of the watersupply may occur, the short-term risk of communicabledisease transmission increases (McMichael et al,2003). Coastal erosion and storm surges also threateninfrastructure vital to emergency rescues. For example,some communities in the Torres Strait have airstripsthat are currently being threatened by beach erosion.

Malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases are likelyto be affected by changing temperatures, humidity andrainfall. A key concern for those inhabiting the TorresStrait and far north Queensland is the contaminationof the local mosquito population by infected peopleentering the region or wind-born mosquitoes bringingthe disease from Papua New Guinea (Green, 2008).

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References

Abbs D, Aryal S, Campbell E, McGregor J, Nguyen K, Palmer M, RafterA, Watterson I and Bates B 2006, Projections of Extreme Rainfalland Cyclones: Final Report to the Australian Greenhouse Of ce,CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, <www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/abbsdj_2006b.pdf>

Bureau of Meteorology ( BoM ) 2008, Bureau of Meteorology,Canberra, <www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg>

Commonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation andBoM 2007, Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report 2007,CSIRO, Melbourne, <www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au>

Green D 2008, Climate Impacts on the Health of Remote NorthernAustralian Indigenous Communities. Commissioned by theGarnaut Climate Change Review,

<http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/03-CIndigenous/$File/03-C%20Indigenous.pdf>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) 2007, Climate

Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working GroupsI, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team,Pachauri, RK and Reisinger, A (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva,Switzerland,<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf>

Leslie LM, Karoly DJ, Leplastrier M and Buckley BW 2007, Variabilityof Tropical Cyclones over the Southwest Paci c Ocean usingHigh Resolution Climate Model, Meteorology and Physics 97(Special Issue on Tropical Cyclones), <ftp.gfdl.noaa.gov/pub/rt/Leslieetal97.pdf>

McMichael A, Woodruff R, Whetton P, Hennessy K, Nicholls N, HalesS, Woodward A and Kjellstrom T 2003, Human Health andClimate Change in Oceania: A Risk Assessment. Report to theCommonwealth Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra,<http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/health-pubhlth-publicat-document-metadata-env_climate.htm>

Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research 2007, QueenslandRegional Pro les, (based on reformed Local Government Areas),Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research, Brisbane,<statistics.oesr.qld.gov.au/qld-regional-pro les>

Wa ls h KJE, Nguyen KC and McGregor JL 2004, Finer resolutionregional climate model simulations of the impact of climatechange on tropical cyclones near Australia, Climate Dynamics,22:1, <www.springerlink.com/content/brmpmturdqvxh3vv>



Climate change in theCentra l Queens land Reg ion

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate change forthe Central Queensla nd(CQ) reg ion.

Projected average temperature,rainfall and evapora tion for2030, 2050 and 2070 under low,medium and high greenhousega s emissions s cenarios arecompared with h istorica lclimate records .

Central HighlandsRegional Council

BananaShire

Council

BarcaldineRegionalCouncil

RockhamptonRegionalCouncil

WoorabindaShire

Council

GladstoneRegionalCouncil

DalbyRegionalCouncil

Rockhampton Aero

MilesPost Office


Barcaldine

Post Office

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http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/climate-q-report 260/423ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandCQ2

Key ndings

Tempera tureAverage annual temperature in CQ has increased 0.5 °C over the•last decade (from 21.6 °C to 22.1 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.5 °C by 2070, leading to•annual temperatures well beyond those experienced over the last50 years.

By 2070, Rockhampton may have four times the number of days•over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 16 per year to an averageof 64 per year by 2070), while Barcaldine may have nearly twice thenumber of hot days (increasing from an average of 87 per year toan average of 163 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by nearly 14 per cent•compared with the previous 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, whichmakes it dif cult to detect any in uence of climate change atthis stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an annual•increase of 17 per cent to a decrease of 35 per cent by 2070. The‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change show a decrease underall emissions scenarios.

EvaporationProjections indicate annual potential evaporation could increase•


Extreme eventsThe 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by 51 cm•in Gladstone and 32 cm at Cape Clinton if certain conditionseventuate. These conditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per centincrease in cyclone intensity and frequency, as well as a 130 kmshift southwards in cyclone tracks.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe Central Queensland regionhas a sub-tropical climate withhot, moist summers and warm,dry winters, with occasional frostin the south. Rainfall in the CentralQueensland region is highlyseasonal, with most rain occurringduring the summer months

(October–March).

This region has a diversity oflandforms including the beachesof the Capricorn coast, gem eldssuch as those at Sapphire, west ofEmerald, and the central highlandsincluding Carnarvon Gorge.

DemographicsIn 2007, the region’s population

was 210 294 and is projected toincrease beyond 293 000 by 2026.

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)


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Importa nt industriesof the reg ionAgricultural, mining, processand service industries are theeconomic backbone of the region.The region is predominantlyagricultural, with signi cantmining industries, whichcontribute up to 32 per cent ofemployment in some areas(e.g. Bowen Basin). Agriculturalindustries include beef and grainproduction, and irrigated cotton,grapes and citrus.

Key industries in Rockhamptoninclude beef production, miningservices, minerals processing andmanufacturing industries, whileGladstone is the hub for processingand exporting coal, gas, silica sandand limestone resources, viaworld-class port facilities.

The region also has a number ofproduction facilities including theworld’s largest alumina re nery

and Australia’s largest aluminiumsmelter, Queensland’s largestmanufacturer of cement,Australia’s second largest meatprocessor and operational plansfor the world’s largest magnesiummetal production facility.

Climate change has the potentialto signi cantly affect biodiversityin coastal areas through alterationof habitat. The management of the

regions infrastructure and tourismactivities is also likely to beadversely affected by projectedincreases in temperature, sea-levelrises and changes to the rainfallpatterns. Additional demands onregional water supplies will comefrom increasing agricultural,industrial, commercial and miningactivity and these demands willlikely be exacerbated by thechanging climate.

(Extracted from the CentralQueensland Regional Plan)

Unders ta nding the clima teand how it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate changewill lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the riskof human-induced climate change requires an understanding of thecurrent climate using historical data and future climate scenarios.These future scenarios are prepared using data from GlobalClimate Models.

MethodHistorical climate da taHistorical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)

were aggregated across the CQ region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes intemperature and the frequency of cyclones.

Greenhouse emiss ion scenariosThe World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UnitedNations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) in 1988. The IPCC assesses the latest scienti c, technologicaland socio-economic literature on climate change.

To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland climate change projections were developed using theIPCC low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapidshift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B)scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. Thehigh (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.


Climate change projectionsQueensland climate change projections were produced by theCommonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation(CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on the resultsfrom 23 Global Climate Models. Projections were provided for 2030,2050 and 2070. However, as the climate can vary signi cantly fromone year to the next, these projections show changes in averageclimate for three future 30-year periods centered on 2030, 2050 and2070. Sea-level rise is also considered.



Current climateTemperature (BoM, 2008)Historical temperature records indicate the

average temperature in the CQ region has risen,with this increase accelerating over the last decade(1998–2007). The average annual temperature was21.6 °C in the 30-year period 1971–2000, whichis a 0.2 °C an increase on the 1961–1990 average.However, over the last decade it has risen by a further0.5 °C, suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature.

The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over timeis represented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greaterin the autumn, with the average over the lastdecade increasing by 1.0 °C compared to the1961–1990 average .

Tempera ture ext remes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uence ofregional topography, proximity to the ocean andprevailing winds, location-speci c data are requiredwhen considering changes in these extreme eventsover time.

Historical temperature records for Rockhampton(Figure 2) show that since the late 1970s, in mostyears, the number of days for each year where themaximum temperature exceeds 35 °C has tended toincrease. However, for Barcaldine (Figure 3) there hasbeen a small increase. Due to its inland location,Barcaldine currently experiences more extremetemperature days than coastal Rockhampton.

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

2829303132

30.229.6

2728293031

3132333435

2728293031

2122232425

28.928.2

33.632.9

29.128.1

22.822.1

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

Figure 1: Historical annua l and s easona l maximumtemperatures for the Central Queensland region forthe period 1950–2007, compared to the ba seperiod 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n, for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of the g raph.Note: vertical scales may differ between graphs .


Average maximum tempera ture has risen in theCentral Queensland region

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 °C for Rockhampton

Blank spaces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not e xceed 35 °C.‘X’ denote s the yea r for which the full data set is nota vailable (i.e. the actua l values may in fact be greater tha n

what is shown).


The number of days over 35

°C has risen inRockhampton



Rainfall (BoM, 2008)

Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors suchas topography and vegetation, and broader scaleweather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how thisnatural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns,long term rainfall records are required. The BoM hasbeen collecting rainfall data for the CentralQueensland region since 1897.

The variability in annual and seasonal rainfall isoutlined in Figure 4. Since 1990, only three years have

received rainfall greater than the 1961–1990 average.Figure 4 shows the dominant summer rainfall patternwith a 1961–1990 average rainfall around 300 mm,compared to an autumn average (the next mostdominant rainfall period) of around 170 mm.

Over the most recent decade, there has been a38 per cent decline in the average autumn rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. Summer averagerainfall has declined by 14 per cent; however, therehas been a fairly consistent decrease since the 1970s

with only eight summers in this period above the1961–1990 average. These recent conditions aresimilar to those experienced historically (e.g. autumn

rainfall around the early 1920s and late 1960s) and, assuch, they may be due to the natural climate variation.

The changes in the summer and autumn rainfallare the major contributors to the overall 13 per cent

decline in the annual rainfall for the region over thelast decade (1998–2007).

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

200400600800

100012001400

200

400

600

0

200

400

0

100

200

300

0

100

200

300

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

691598(-13.4%)

300258(-13.9%)

168104(-37.8%)

9086(5.3%)

145133(8.9%)

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seasona l tota lrainfall for the Centra l Queensland region for theperiod 1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running average.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicated numerically at the right of the graph.The difference in rainfall betw een the bas eline and lastdeca de is sho wn in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.

Data source: BoM, 2008.

Historical rainfall shows high variability

01960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

20

40

60

80

100

120

Figure 3: Number of days over 35 °C in Barcaldine

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not e xceed 35 °C.‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notava ilable (i.e. the a ctual values may in fact be g reater thanwhat is shown).


There has been a small increase in the number ofda ys over 35 ° C in Barcaldine



Projected climate change inCentral QueenslandGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,

ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the Central Queensland region havebeen extracted from this dataset for the QueenslandClimate Change Centre for Excellence (QCCCE). Theprojections presented here are relative to the baseperiod of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference

under the low, medium and high emissions scenariosto 2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate changeprojections for CQ have been calculated on a mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for CentralQueensland in 2030, 2050 and 2070 are describedin Table 2. The numbers shown in brackets in Table 2indicate the range of the results from the GlobalClimate Models.


supply of water to evaporate (either from the soil, orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporation candiffer from actual evaporation, a change in potentialevaporation gives a good indication of the change in theevaporative power of the atmosphere.

Networks to measure potential evaporation are notas well developed as those that measure temperatureand rainfall and there are insuf cient data available toindicate the changes over time. Averaged over theCentral Queensland region, the annual mean potentialevaporation over the period 1971–2000 (1997 mm)

is nearly three times the annual mean rainfall overthe same period (692 mm), which is a contributingfactor to the depletion of soil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effects suchas extreme waves combine to make the total cyclonehazard. This hazard is greatest in Queenslandbetween January and March, but tropical cyclones inQueensland can occur anytime over the period fromNovember to April.

Although the CQ region is further south than the mainarea of tropical cyclone development and occurrence,tropical cyclones still have an impact on the region(Figure 5), either from those that do track furthersouthwards or from the heavy rain and strong easterlywinds through the region that accompany cyclonesto the north.

There is a relationship between the impact ofcyclones on eastern Australia and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Cycloneactivity in Australia decreases during an El Niñopattern and increases in a La Niña pattern (CSIRO &BoM, 2007). This relationship is re ected in Figure 5,with very few cyclones in the last three decades(in fact, there were none in the last decade) comparedto the La Niña dominant decades commencing in the1940’s and 1960’s. There is also a greater tendency forcyclones to track further southward in La Niñadominant decades.

N u m

b e r o

f c y c l o n e s

Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6


Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2 6

1 9 0 7 – 1 9 1

6

Figure 5: Tota l and overland number of tropica lcyclones for the Central Queensland region for theperiod 1907–2006.Adapted from BoM, 2008.

Fewer cyclones ha ve occurred over the las t threedeca des under El Niño wea ther pa tterns



Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by six per cent (-42 mm)and 10 per cent (-69 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 19 per cent (-28 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : undera high emissions scenario, annual evaporation isprojected to increase by as much as 15 per cent(300 mm). Autumn is projected to be the seasonmost impacted, with increases up to 19 per cent(85 mm) projected in some models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere willincrease the likelihood of a record high temperaturein a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for two observing stations in Central Queenslandwith good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 forRockhampton, the number of hot days above 35 °Care projected to increase from 16 day to 64 days.Under the same scenario for Barcaldine, hot daysabove 35 °C are projected to nearly double from87 days to 163 days.

Overview of climate projections

In summary, the ‘best estimate’ changes totemperature and rainfall under the three emissionsscenarios are:


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by three per cent (-21 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of six per cent is

projected for spring (-9 mm).Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increaseis projected to be around 3–4 per cent (60– 80 mm),with some models projecting up to a six per centincrease in autumn (27 mm) and winter (18 mm).

2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.2 °Cand 2.0 °C respectively under the low and highemissions scenarios. There is little variation inprojections across the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by four per cent (-28 mm)and seven per cent (-48 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 12 per cent (-17 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario an increase in annualpotential evaporation of up to nine per cent(180 mm) is projected with the best estimatebeing seven per cent (140 mm). Autumn is projectedto have the greatest increase of up to 12 per cent(54 mm).

2070 (low and high emiss ions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.7 °Cand 3.2 °C under the low and high emissionsscenarios respectively. There is little variationin projections across the seasons.

643640292616(42–100)(27–47)(31–58)(24–36)(22–33)

Rockhampton

16312513411511087(136–192)(112–145)(116–156)(103–129)(100–121)

Barcaldine


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot da ys per year above 35 °Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low a nd high emiss ions scena rios).Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.



Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Chang es#

Temperature°C

Annual 21.6 °C + 1.0 [+0.7 to +1.4]

+ 1.2 [+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 2.0 [+1.3 to +2.8]

+ 1.7 [+1.1 to +2.3]

+ 3.2[+2.2 to +4.5]

Summer 26.9 °C + 1.0 [+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2 [+0.8 to +1.8]

+ 2.0 [+1.3 to +2.9]

+ 1.6 [+1.0 to +2.4]

+ 3.2[+2.0 to +4.7]

Autumn 22.0 °C + 1.0 [+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2 [+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 1.9 [+1.3 to +2.8]

+ 1.6 [+1.1 to +2.4]

+ 3.1[+2.0 to +4.6]

Winter 15.2 °C + 1.0 [+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2 [+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 2.0 [+1.3 to +2.8]

+ 1.6 [+1.1 to +2.3]

+ 3.1 [+2.1 to +4.5]

Spring 22.5 °C + 1.0 [+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.3 [+0.8 to +1.8]

+ 2.1 [+1.4 to +3.0]

+ 1.7 [+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 3.3 [+2.2 to +4.8]

Rainfall

%

Annual 692 mm -3

[-13 to +5]

-4

[-15 to +6]

-7

[-24 to +10]

-6

[-20 to +9]

-10

[-35 to +17]Summer 295 mm -2

[-12 to +8]-2

[-14 to +10]-3

[-23 to +16]-3

[-19 to +13]-5

[-34 to +26]

Autumn 162 mm -4 [-19 to +10]

-5 [-21 to +12]

-8 [-34 to +20]

-7 [-29 to +16]

-13 [-48 to +32]

Winter 80 mm -5 [-17 to +8]

-5 [-20 to +10]

-9 [-31 to +16]

-7[-27 to +13]

-14 [-45 to +25]

Spring 145 mm -6 [-20 to +6]

-7 [-22 to +7]

-12 [-36 to +12]

-10 [-31 to +10]

-19 [-51 to +19]


Annual 1997 mm + 3 [+2 to +5]

+ 4 [+2 to +6]

+ 7 [+4 to +9]

+ 5 [+4 to +8]

+ 10 [+7 to +15]

Summer 661 mm + 3

[+2 to +5]

+ 3

[+2 to +4]

+ 6

[+3 to +10]

+ 5

[+3 to +8]

+ 10

[+5 to +15]Autumn 449 mm + 4

[+2 to +6]+ 4

[+2 to +6]+ 7

[+4 to +12]+ 6

[+3 to +10]+ 12

[+6 to +19]

Winter 300 mm + 4 [+2 to +6]

+ 4 [+2 to +7]

+ 8 [+4 to +12]

+ 6 [+4 to +10]

+ 12 [+7 to +19]

Spring 588 mm + 3 [+2 to +5]

+ 4 [+2 to +6]

+ 6 [+3 to +9]

+ 5 [+3 to +8]

+ 10 [+6 to +15]

Table 2. Summary of projections for Central Queensla nd** To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model base

period of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.

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Cyclones and s ea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones, havea complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patterns

such as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepancies incyclone frequencies between different climate models.

Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency off theeast coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006);however, they also simulate an increase in thenumber of long-lived and severe (Category 3–5)eastern Australian tropical cyclones. Under threedifferent studies the number of severe tropicalcyclones is projected to increase by 56 per cent by

2050 (Walsh et al, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050(Leslie et al, 2007) and 140 per cent by 2070(Abbs et al, 2006).

Projected southward shifts in the primary regionsof cyclone development through the coming century(Abbs et al, 2006; Leslie et al, 2007) could result ina greater cyclone impact in the CQ region. Withprojected increases in future cyclones and projectedrise in mean sea levels (CSIRO & BoM, 2007), stormsurges will be able to penetrate further inland, greatlyincreasing the risk of damage to natural ecosystems,

infrastructure and the risk of erosion in low-lyingcoastal regions.

The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected toincrease by 51 cm in Gladstone and 32 cm at CapeClinton if certain conditions eventuate. Theseconditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per centincrease in cyclone intensity and frequency, as well asa 130 km shift southwards in cyclone tracks (Hardy etal, 2004).

According to the IPCC, global sea-level is projected to

rise by 18 to 59 cm by 2100, with a possible additionalcontribution from melting ice sheets of 10 to 20 cm(IPCC, 2007).

Impa cts of clima te chang e on theCentral Queens land reg ionProjections for the Central Queensland region includea decline in rainfall, with increasing temperature andevaporation, in conjunction with more extreme climateevents and sea-level rise. The temperature projectionsfor inaction on climate change suggest a temperatureincrease well outside the range of temperatures everexperienced over the last 50 years. The projectionsfor temperature and number of hot days are all inthe same direction—increasing.

The CQ region has signi cant areas of land underirrigation for agricultural/horticultural production andtherefore a high rural water demand. As its regionalpopulation increases, coastal developments and theexpansion in mining and industrial activity all add to thepressure on the water resources. Any further reductionsin water availability as a result of climate changewill place great pressure on consumptive uses andexacerbate competition with environmental water uses.

In addition to the impacts on the water resource,climate change is expected to have long-term impactson agriculture, human health, infrastructure, economicactivity and coastal and marine ecosystems.For example:

In the winter of 2050, under the high emissions•scenario, the predicted decline in rainfall(-9 per cent), increasing high temperatures(+2.0 °C) and an increase in evaporation(+8 per cent) could result in challenges insupplying suf cient water to meet demand.

The projected higher temperatures and more hot•days above 35 °C can result in signi cant healthimpacts such as heat exhaustion and increasedmortality among vulnerable sectors of thecommunity such as the very young or old. These

conditions could also result in the spread ofvector-borne disease south, with Dengue Feverpossibly reaching Rockhampton by 2050.

Furthermore, increased temperatures are likely•to cause more regular coral bleaching in the GreatBarrier Reef. These bleaching events are very likelyto become more severe as temperatures increaseand such events could occur annually by 2050.As a consequence of this, the Great Barrier Reefis very unlikely to survive in its present form. Thedegradation of the reef will not only be a loss ofgreat intrinsic value, it will also come at a greatcost to the tourism industry (NRM, 2004).



In addition, the increasing concentration of carbon•dioxide is causing increased acidi cation of thesea water which, in turn, impacts the coralformation (De’ath et al, 2009). This adds a furtherdimension to the Great Barrier Reef’s vulnerabilityto climate change.

As a high proportion of the population of central•Queensland reside in close proximity to the coast,there is a signi cant risk from cyclones. Increasesin extreme storm events are expected to causemore ash ooding, affecting industry andinfrastructure, including water, sewerage andstormwater, transport and communications.The riskiest areas are those closest to the coast,which can incur ash ooding, wind damage andconsiderable structural damage from falling trees,affecting industry, infrastructure and roads.

All of these potential impacts combine to multiply thechallenges that the people of Central Queensland facein planning for a productive and sustainable future forthe region. Successfully addressing these challengeswill require knowledge of the changes that are likely,including an understanding of which changes can bemitigated and which will need to be addressed byadaptation.

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References




Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2002, CentralQueensland Regional Plan: Regional growth managementframework, Department of Infrastructure and Planning,

Brisbane, <http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/regional-growth/cqrgfm.pdf>DIP 2008, Queensland Future Populations: Appendix C (based on

reformed Local Government Areas), Department of Infrastructureand Planning, Brisbane,<www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/report/future-population/appendix-c.xls>

Department o f Nat ural Resources a nd Mines 2004, Climate Change:the Challenge for Natural Resource Management, Department ofNatural Resources and Mines, Brisbane,<www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AboutUs/Publications/ByType/Reports/ClimateChange/ChallengeForNaturalResourceManagement/Booklet_HighQuality.pdf>

De’ath G, Lough JM and Fabricius KE 2009, Declining CoralCalci cation on the Great Barrier Reef, Science, 323:5910,<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;323/5910/116>

Hardy T, Mason L, Astorquia A and Harper BA 2004, QueenslandClimate Change and Community Vulnerability to TropicalCyclones: Ocean Hazards Assessment Stage 3. Report to theQueensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines,Brisbane, <www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AboutUs/Publications/ByType/Reports/ClimateChange/VulnerabilityToTropicalCyclones/Stage3/FullReportHighRes.pdf>

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) 2007, ClimateChange 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working GroupsI, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team,Pachauri, RK and Reisinger, A (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland,<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf>

Leslie LM, Karoly DJ, Leplastrier M and Buckley BW 2007, Variabilityof Tropical Cyclones over the Southwest Paci c Ocean usingHigh Resolution Climate Model, Meteorology and Physics 97(Special Issue on Tropical Cyclones), <ftp.gfdl.noaa.gov/pub/rt/Leslieetal97.pdf>







Climate change in theCentra l Wes t Queens land Reg ion

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate change forthe Centra l Wes t Queensland(CWQ) region.

Projected average temperature,rainfall and evapora tion for2030, 2050 and 2070 under low,medium and high greenhousega s emissions s cenarios arecompared with h istorica lclimate records.


South Australia

DiamantinaShire

Council

BouliaShire

Council

WintonShire

Council

LongreachRegionalCouncil

BarcaldineRegionalCouncil

Blackall TamboRegionalCouncil

BarcooShire

Council

Boulia

Airport Longreach Aero

BarcaldinePost Office

BirdsvillePolice Station

Urandangie

WindorahPost Office

WintonPost Office

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CookShire

Council

AurukunShire

Council

PormpuraawShire

Council

Lockhart River Shire

Council

NapranumShire

Council

HopeValeShireCouncil

Northern Peninsula AreaRegional Council

MapoonShire

Council

TorresShire

Council

Torres Strait IslandRegional Council

Weipa Aero

Palmerville

ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandCWQ2

Key ndings

Tempera tureAverage annual temperature in CWQ has increased 0.7 °C•over the last decade (from 23.6 °C to 24.3 °C).


By 2070, Birdsville may have almost one and a half times the•number of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 125 peryear to 178 per year by 2070), similarly for Boulia (increasing froman average of 130 per year to an average of 194 per year by 2070)

and Longreach (increasing from an average of 112 per year to anaverage of 185 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by almost nine•per cent compared with the previous 30 years. This is generallyconsistent with natural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect any in uence ofclimate change at this stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an•annual increase of 22 per cent to a decrease of 37 per cent by2070. The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change showsa decrease under all emissions scenarios.

EvaporationProjections indicate annual potential evaporation could increase•3–14 per cent by 2070.

Extreme eventsMore intense and long-lived cyclones have a greater chance of•impacting on inland regions such as in Central West Queensland,from the decay of cyclones into rain bearing depressions or thecyclones themselves tracking further inland.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe CWQ region has a semi-arid toarid climate with summers beingvery hot and winters dry and warm.The region’s rainfall is most likelyto occur between December andMarch. Temperatures range from-2 °C to 49 °C. Most of the regionexperiences more than 2.8 metres

of evaporation per year, withextremes of up to four metresin drought years.

DemographicsIn 2007, the region’s populationwas 12 357 and declining,although projections are showingincreases to beyond 13 000 by2026. Longreach (pop 4000) isthe major business and servicehub for the CWQ.

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

Importa nt indust riesof the reg ionThe region is predominantlyagricultural, based on sheepand beef grazing as well as thewool industry. Almost 32 per centof the workforce is employedin agricultural industries.Central West Queensland hasa strong tourism trade basedon unspoilt outback landscapesand cultural heritage.

There is growth potential forindustries such as organicproduction, geothermal andsolar thermal energy productionand ecotourism.

(Extracted from the Draft Central WestQueensland Regional Plan)

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Unders ta nding the clima teand how it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climatechange will lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assessthe risk of human-induced climate change requires an understandingof the current climate using historical data and future climatescenarios. These future scenarios are prepared using data fromGlobal Climate Models.


were aggregated across the CWQ region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.

Greenhouse emiss ion scenariosThe World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and theUnited Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The IPCC assesses the latestscienti c, technological and socio-economic literature onclimate change.



Climate change projectionsQueensland climate change projections were produced by theCommonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation(CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on the resultsfrom 23 Global Climate Models. Projections were provided for 2030,2050 and 2070. However, as the climate can vary signi cantly fromone year to the next, these projections show changes in averageclimate for three future 30-year periods centered on 2030, 2050and 2070.

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The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over timeis represented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greater inthe autumn, with the average over the lastdecade increasing by 1.2 °C compared to the1961–1990 average .

Tempera ture ext remes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number ofdays exceeding 35 °C) are single events that usuallydo not extend past a couple of days. Due to thein uence of regional topography and prevailing winds,location-speci c data are required when consideringchanges in these extreme events over time.

Historical temperature records for Birdsville (Figure 2)and Boulia (Figure 3) show that since the late 1970s,for most years, the number of days each year wherethe maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C has tendedto increase.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Birdsville

Blank spaces a re for the years w here the ma ximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notava ilable (i.e. the a ctual values may in fact be greate rthan wha t is shown).


The number of da ys over 35 ˚ C has risen inBirdsville


average temperature in the CWQ region has risen,with this increase accelerating over the last decade(1998– 2007). The average annual temperature was23.6 °C in the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which isa 0.1 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. However,over the last decade it has risen by a further 0.7 °C,suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature.

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

29303132333435

34353637383940

28293031323334

22232425262728

31323334353637

30.931.7

37.237.7

30.431.6

23.324.1

32.733.6

Figure 1: Historical annual a nd s eas onal maximumtemperatures for the Central West Queenslandregion for the period 1950–2007, compared tothe ba se period 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.


Average maximum temperature has risen in theCentral West Queensla nd region



Rainfall (BoM, 2008)Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability; local factors suchas topography and vegetation; and broader scaleweather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how thisnatural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns,long-term rainfall records are required. The BoM hasbeen collecting rainfall data for the Central WestQueensland region since 1897.

The variability in annual and seasonal rainfall is

outlined in Figure 4. The annual rainfall averagedover the last decade has increased by four per centcompared to the 1961–1990 average, suggestinglittle change in rainfall in recent decades.


Over the most recent decade, there has been a47 per cent increase in the average spring rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. The summeraverage rainfall has increased by nine per cent; however,this is quite a small change and is within the variation

in summer rainfall observed since 1897. Similarly,there has been little change in the annual rainfallfor the region over the last decade (1998–2007).

EvaporationPotential evaporation is a measure of theevaporative (or drying) power of the atmosphere.The potential evaporation rate may not be reachedas it assumes that there is an unlimited supply ofwater to evaporate (either from the soil or from waterbodies). Although potential evaporation can differ

from actual evaporation, a change in potentialevaporation gives a good indication of the change inthe evaporative power of the atmosphere.

19601960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140160

180

Figure 3: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 °C for Boulia

Blank spa ces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not e xceed 35 °C.‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notava ilab le (i.e. the actua l values may in fact be great er thanwhat is shown).


The number of da ys over 35 ˚ C has risen in Boulia

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

330316(4.4%)

168154(9.1%)

8764(-26.5%)

3433(2.7%)

6343(47%)

200

400600800

0

200

400

0

100

200

300

0

50

100

50

100

150

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfa ll for the Central West Queensland regionfor the period 1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e. The mea n forboth t he ba seline 1961–1990 and the la st deca de 1997–2007 is show n by the green lines and indicat ed numericallyat the right of the g raph.The difference in rainfall betw een th e ba seline a nd las tdeca de is show n in per cent.

Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs .Data source: BoM, 2008.




Networks to measure potential evaporation are notas well developed as those that measure temperatureand rainfall and there are insuf cient data availableto indicate the changes over time.

Averaged over the CWQ region, the annual meanpotential evaporation over the period 1971–2000(2914 mm) is more than eight times larger than theannual mean rainfall over the same period (362 mm),which is a contributing factor to the depletion ofsoil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effectssuch as extreme waves combine to make the totalcyclone hazard. This hazard is greatest in Queensland

between January and March, but tropical cyclonesin Queensland can occur anytime over the periodfrom November to April.

While having little direct effect on the inlandCWQ region, tropical cyclone systems can beassociated with ooding in inland regions, throughthe weakening of such systems into signi cantrain-bearing depressions. After tropical cycloneWanda (20–25 January 1974), record oodingwas recorded in the Diamantina River in Birdsvillewith ood gauges reading 9.45 m—this is hundreds

of kilometres away from where Wanda crossed thecoast near Fraser Island.

Projected climate cha ngein Cent ral Wes t Queens landGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the Central West Queensland regionhave been extracted from this dataset for the

Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence(QCCCE). The projections presented here are relative tothe base period of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference

under the low, medium and high emissions scenariosto 2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate changeprojections for Central West Queensland have beenpresented on a mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for Central West

Queensland in 2030, 2050 and 2070 are describedin Table 2. The numbers shown in brackets in Table 2indicate the range of the results from the GlobalClimate Models.


2030 (medium emiss ions s cenario)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annual meantemperature (the average of all daily temperatureswithin a given year) is projected to increase by1.1 °C. There is little variation in projections acrossthe seasons.

Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year) isprojected to decrease by three per cent (-11 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of eight per cent(-5 mm) is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increaseis projected to be around three per cent (87 mm),with some models projecting up to a six per centincrease in autumn (39 mm) and winter (25 mm).




2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.4 °C and2.2 °C under the low and high emissions scenarios

respectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by four per cent (-14 mm)and six per cent (-22 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 15 per cent (-9 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario an increase in annualpotential evaporation of up to nine per cent(262 mm) is projected with the best estimate being ve per cent (146 mm). Winter is projected to havethe greatest increase of up to 12 per cent (49 mm).


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by ve per cent (-18 mm)

and nine per cent (-33 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 23 per cent (-13 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario, annual evaporation isprojected to increase by as much as 14 per cent(408 mm). Winter is projected to be the seasonmost impacted with increases of up to 20 per cent(82 mm) projected by some models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere willincrease the likelihood of a record high temperature

in a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for three observing stations in the Central WestQueensland with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Birdsville,the number of hot days above 35 °C is projected toincrease from 125 days to 178 days and from 130 daysto 194 days in Boulia. Under the same scenario forLongreach, hot days above 35 °C are projected toincrease from 112 days to 185 days.

CyclonesExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climatepatterns such as the ENSO, making it dif cult topredict their frequency of occurrence. This resultsin discrepancies in cyclone frequencies betweendifferent climate models.

More intense and long-lived cyclones have agreater chance of impacting on inland regions suchas CWQ, from the decay of cyclones into rain-bearingdepressions, or the cyclones themselves trackingfurther inland.

185149156138133112Longreach(158–213)(135–166)(140–179)(129–152)(126–144)

194166172157153130(174–219)(154–180)(157–189)(147–168)(144–162)

Boulia

178152158144141125(160–202)(142–165)(145–173)(137–154)(135–149)

Birdsville


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot days per yea r above 35 ˚ Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.



Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Current

historicalmean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 23.6 °C + 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.4[+0.9 to +2.0]

+ 2.2[+1.5 to +3.2]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.7]

+ 3.6[+2.4 to +5.2]

Summer 30.2 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.7]

+ 1.4[+0.8 to +2.1]

+ 2.2[+1.4 to +3.4]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.8]

+ 3.6[+2.2 to +5.5]

Autumn 23.6 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.7]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +2.0]

+ 2.2[+1.4 to +3.3]

+ 1.8[+1.1 to +2.8]

+ 3.5[+2.2 to +5.3]

Winter 16.0 °C + 1.0[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +1.9]

+ 2.1[+1.3 to +3.1]

+ 1.7[+1.1 to +2.6]

+ 3.3[+2.1 to +5.0]

Spring 24.8 °C + 1.2[+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.1]

+ 2.4[+1.7 to +3.4]

+ 2.0[+1.4 to +2.8]

+ 3.9[+2.7 to +5.5]

Rainfall%

Annual 362 mm -3[-14 to +7] -4[-15 to +8] -6[-25 to +14] -5[-21 to +11] -9[-37 to +22]

Summer 183 mm -1[-13 to +11]

-1[-15 to +13]

-2[-24 to +22]

-2[-20 to +18]

-3[-35 to +35]

Autumn 87 mm -2[-19 to +16]

-2[-21 to +19]

-4[-33 to +31]

-3[-28 to +26]

-6[-48 to +50]

Winter 35 mm -6[-22 to +10]

-7[-24 to +12]

-11[-39 to +20]

-9[-33 to +16]

-17[-55 to +32]

Spring 57 mm -8[-25 to +7]

-9[-27 to +9]

-15[-43 to +15]

-12[-37 to +12]

-23[-59 to +23]

Potential evaporation%

Annual 2914 mm + 3[+1 to +5]

+ 3[0 to +6]

+ 5[+2 to +9]

+ 4[+2 to +8]

+ 8[+3 to +14]

Summer 993 mm + 2[+1 to +4] + 1[+1 to +3] + 5[+2 to +9] + 4[+1 to +7] + 8[+2 to +14]

Autumn 649 mm + 3[+1 to +6]

+ 3[+1 to +5]

+ 6[+2 to +11]

+ 5[+2 to +9]

+ 10[+3 to +18]

Winter 412 mm + 3[0 to +6]

+ 4[+1 to +7]

+ 6[0 to +12]

+ 5[0 to +10]

+ 10[+1 to +20]

Spring 855 mm + 2[0 to +5]

+ 3[0 to +6]

+ 5[0 to +9]

+ 4[0 to +8]

+ 7[+1 to +15]

Table 2. S ummary of projections for Central West Queensland *

* To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have been

calculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



Impa cts of clima te change on theCentral Wes t Queens land regionClimate change is likely to pose challenges to the

Central West Queensland region such as drought,and possible changes in the frequency and intensityof extreme climatic events. Projections for the CWQregion include a decline in rainfall with increasingtemperature and evaporation. The temperatureprojections for inaction on climate change suggesta temperature increase well outside the range oftemperatures ever experienced over the last 50 years.The projections for temperature and number of hot daysare all in the same direction—increasing.

The two major water resources of the CWQ region aresurface water ows and groundwater from the GreatArtesian Basin. The latter is much less exposed andsensitive to climate change than surface water, due tothe large size of the Great Artesian Basin system.

Changes in rainfall regime may see rain falling infewer, yet more intense events. Floods may increasein magnitude, but decline in frequency. This couldhave serious consequences for towns and grazingoperations dependent on surface water supplies,for aquatic ecosystems dependent on permanentwaterholes and for oodplain ecosystems that require

relatively regular

ooding. Increased event intensitymay lead to increased erosion, loss of water qualityand sedimentation in weirs and some areas ofchannel country.

As the region is predominantly agricultural, based onsheep and beef grazing, it is particularly vulnerable toclimate change in some aspects, but less so in others.For example:

More frequent and severe droughts would•be detrimental to groundcover and possiblygrassland composition. Increased deep soil

cracking with more frequent or intense droughtsmay particularly affect perennial grasses. The lowermoisture regime and higher CO 2 is likely to reducethe quantity and quality of pasture resulting inlower carrying capacities, animal production andenterprise viability.

Changes in CO• 2, temperature and soil moistureare likely to favour the establishment and spreadof woody vegetation. Long-lived perennial pastureplants may be vulnerable to climate change,although Mitchell grass pastures are consideredto be well adapted naturally to climate variability(DPIF, 2006).

Climate change could lead to changes in nativeecosystems and, in the long term, lead to the lossof populations, communities and perhaps morevulnerable species. Increased drought may result inchanges in vegetation composition in grassland and

savannah communities, with more adapted species(including weeds) displacing less adapted species.

Fauna that are dependent on water holes formaintenance of populations may be threatened ifin ow events become less frequent. Climate changeis also likely to alter the ow regime, with potentialimplications for ecosystems that are dependent on ows and ooding. While the ecosystems are generallywell adapted to climate variability, there is almost nocapacity to arti cially modify ow regimes to reduceany adverse impacts of climate change. Floodplains

and aquatic ecosystems are dependent on river ows and are highly vulnerable to climate change.

ReferencesBureau of Meteorology ( BoM ) 2008, Bureau of Meteorology,

Canberra, <www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg>Commonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Orga nisation and

BoM 2007, Climate change in Australia: Technical Report 2007,CSIRO, Melbourne,<www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au>

Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2007, Draft Central

West Queensland Regional Plan, Department of Infrastructureand Planning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/central-west/part-1-c-w-plan.pdf>

DIP 2008, Queensland Future Populations: Appendix C (based onreformed Local Government Areas), Department of Infrastructureand Planning, Brisbane,<www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/report/future-population/appendix-c.xls>

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries 2006, FutureImplications of Climate Change in the Lake Eyre Basin,Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Brisbane,<www.lebmf.gov.au/publications/pubs/leb-proceedings-02.pdf>

Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research 2007, Queensland

Regional Pro

les, (based on reformed Local Government Areas),Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research, Brisbane,<statistics.oesr.qld.gov.au/qld-regional-pro les>

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Climate change in theEastern Downs Region

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate change forthe Eastern Downs (ED) region.


rainfall and evapora tion for2030, 2050 and 2070 under low,medium and high greenhousega s emissions s cenarios arecompared with h istorica lclimate records.

MilesPost Office

DoctorsCreek

Canning Downs

CambooyaPost OfficePittsworth


GoondiwindiRegionalCouncil

ToowoombaRegionalCouncil

SouthernDowns

RegionalCouncil

New South Wales



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Key ndings

Tempera tureAverage annual temperature in the ED has increased 0.5 °C over•the last decade (from 18.3 °C to 18.8 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.5 °C by 2070 leading•to annual temperatures well beyond those experienced over the

last 50 years.By 2070, Miles may have three times the number of days over 35 °C•(increasing from an average of 31 per year to an average of 93 peryear by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly 12 per cent•compared with the previous 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, whichmakes it dif cult to detect any in uence of climate change atthis stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an annual• increase of 16 per cent to a decrease of 32 per cent by 2070.The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decreaseunder all emissions scenarios.


Extreme eventsMore intense and long-lived cyclones have a greater chance of•

impacting on inland regions such as the Eastern Downs, from the

decay of cyclones into rain bearing depressions or the cyclonesthemselves tracking further inland.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe Eastern Downs region has atemperate climate with summersbeing hot and winters cool (dueto elevation). The climate is coolerthan the rest of the state. Rainfallin the Eastern Downs region ishighly seasonal and irregular,most rain occurs during the

summer season either as heavythunderstorms or from tropicalrain depressions.

DemographicsIn 2007, the region’s populationwas 230 484 and is projected toincrease beyond 302 000 by 2026.

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)




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Importa nt industriesof the reg ionThe agriculture sector is themost signi cant industry inthe Eastern Downs region.The major agricultural industriesare cropping, such as wheat,sorghum, barley and cotton,grazing (22 per cent of stateproduction), horticulture, oriculture and related activitiessuch as feed lots, abattoirs andprocessing plants. The pastoralarea is known as a major sheep,cattle and dairying area.

The region offers signi cant,relatively untapped reserves ofthermal coal and coal seam gas.This has seen the developmentof a number of power stations tosupply eastern Australia’s growingenergy needs. The Eastern Downsis within the Surat Basin, which isone of the largest energy-relatedreserves in Australia.

The region also contains inexcess of four billion tonnes ofcommercially viable, open cut coalaround the shallow margins of theSurat Basin. Coal seam methanegas and the construction of powergeneration facilities around thetowns of Dalby and Chinchilla haveassisted in the development ofthe region’s energy resources.

Other traditional industries

include metal and machinerymanufacturing and foodprocessing. Emerging industriesinclude research and developmentin bre composites, regional andinter-regional education, tourismand wine production.

(Extracted from the Eastern DownsRegional Plan).

Unders ta nding the clima teand how it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate changewill lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the riskof human-induced climate change requires an understanding ofthe current climate using historical data and future climate scenarios.These future scenarios are prepared using data from GlobalClimate Models.


were aggregated across the ED region. The uctuations and trends inthe observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.


To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland, climate change projections were developed using theIPCC low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gas emissionsscenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapid shift to lessfossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B) scenario assumesa balanced use of different energy sources. The high (A1FI) scenarioassumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.





The change in maximum temperatures are greaterin the winter, with the average over the lastdecade increasing by 1.1 °C, compared to the1961–1990 average.

Tempera ture extremes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uenceof regional topography and prevailing winds, location-speci c data are required when considering changesin these extreme events over time.

Historical temperature records for Miles (Figure 2)show, that since the late 1970s, there has been anincreasing trend in the number of days each year

where the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ° C for Miles

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ° C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ila ble

(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be grea ter than wha tis shown)


The number of da ys over 35 ˚ C has risen in Miles

Current climateTemperature (BoM, 2008)Historical temperature records indicate the average

temperature in the ED region is rising, with thisincrease accelerating over the last decade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 18.3 °Cin the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a0.2 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. However,over the last decade it has risen by a further 0.5 °C,suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature.

The increase in annual maximum temperaturesis presented in Figure 1. The trend over timeis represented by the black line in each graph.

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

2425262728

24.825.8

2930313233

30.231.2

2425262728

25.026.0

1718192021

18.419.5

24

25262728

25.726.7

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 1: Historical annua l and s easona l maximumtemperatures for the Eas tern Downs region for theperiod 1950–2007, compared to the ba se period1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve yea r running a verag e.The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a nd

indicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: Vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.


Averag e maximum tempera ture has risen inthe Eas tern Downs region

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Rainfall (BoM, 2008)Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors such astopography and vegetation, and broader scale weather

patterns, for example El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. To understand how this naturaltemporal variation changes rainfall patterns, long-termrainfall records are required. The BoM has beencollecting rainfall data for the ED region since 1897.

The variability in annual and seasonal rainfall isoutlined in Figure 3. The annual rainfall averagedover the last decade has decreased by 12 per centcompared to the 1961–1990 average. Since 1990,only ve years have received rainfall greater thanthe 1961–1990 average.

Figure 3 shows the dominant summer rainfall patternwith a 1961–1990 average rainfall around 258 mm,compared to a spring average (the next most dominantrainfall period) of around 170 mm.

Over the most recent decade, there has been a31 per cent decline in the average autumn rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. Summer averagerainfall has declined slightly by 10 per cent in the mostrecent decade (compared to the 1961–1990 average).

The changes in the autumn and summer rainfallare the major contributors to the overall 12 per centdecline in the annual rainfall for the region over thelast decade (1998–2007). However, these changesare all within the range expected from the naturalvariability of the climate.

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

699613(-12.3%)

258233(-9.7%)

159109(-31.3%)

113100(-11.1%)

171170(0.4%)

400600800

1000

200

400

600

0

200

400

100

200

100

200

300

4000

Figure 3: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfall for the Eastern Downs region for the period1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.The difference in rainfall betwe en the bas eline and lastdeca de is show n in per cent.Note: Vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.



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Evaporation

Potential evaporation is a measure of the evaporative(or drying) power of the atmosphere. The potentialevaporation rate assumes that there is an unlimitedsupply of water to evaporate (either from the soil orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporationcan differ from actual evaporation, a change inpotential evaporation gives a good indication of thechange in the evaporative power of the atmosphere.


Averaged over the ED region, the annual mean

potential evaporation over the period 1971–2000(1737 mm) is approximately two and half times theannual mean rainfall over the same period (694 mm),which contributes to the depletion of soil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effectssuch as extreme waves combine to make the totalcyclone hazard. This hazard is greatest in Queenslandbetween January and March, but tropical cyclonesin Queensland can occur anytime over the period from

November to April. There is a strong relationship withthe impact of cyclones on eastern Australia and theEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

While having little direct effect on the inland EDregion, tropical cyclone systems have been associatedwith previous ooding in the region through theweakening of such systems into signi cant rain-bearing depressions.

Projected climate change inthe Eastern DownsGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the Eastern Downs region have beenextracted from this dataset for the Queensland ClimateChange Centre of Excellence (QCCCE). The projectionspresented here are relative to the base period of1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference underthe high, medium and low emissions scenarios to2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate change projectionsfor the Eastern Downs have been presented ona mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for the EasternDowns in 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described in Table2. The numbers shown in brackets in Table 2indicate the range of the results from the GlobalClimate Models.


2030 (medium emiss ions s cenario)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annual meantemperature (the average of all daily temperatureswithin a given year) is projected to increase by1.0 °C. There is little variation in projections acrossthe seasons.Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by three per cent (-21 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of six per cent isprojected for both spring (-11 mm) andwinter (-6 mm).Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• :across all seasons the annual ‘best estimate’increase is projected to be around 3–4 per cent(52–69 mm), with some models projecting up toa seven per cent increase in winter (16 mm).

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2050 (low and high emissions s cenario)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.2 °C and2.0 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by three per cent (-21 mm)and six per cent (-42 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 11 per cent under the highemissions scenario is projected for spring (-20 mm)and winter (-11 mm).

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario an increase in annualpotential evaporation of up to 10 per cent (174 mm)is projected with the best estimate being sevenper cent (122 mm). Winter is projected to have thegreatest increases of up to 14 per cent (33 mm).

2070 (low a nd high emiss ions scenario)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.6 °C and3.2 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. Spring displays the greatest increasewith best estimates of 1.8 °C and 3.4 °C under thelow and high emissions scenarios respectively.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by ve per cent (-35 mm)and nine per cent (-62 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 18 per cent (-32 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario, annual potentialevaporation is projected to increase by as muchas 15 per cent (261 mm). Winter is projected to be

the season most impacted with increases up to22 per cent (52 mm) projected by some models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmospherewill increase the likelihood of a record high

temperature in a given region. The Global ClimateModels project a rise in extreme temperatures(CSIRO & BoM, 2007). Table 1 shows the projectednumber of days above 35 °C for an observing station inthe Eastern Downs with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Miles,the number of hot days above 35 °C is projected totriple from 31 days to 93 days.

CyclonesExtreme weather events, such as cyclones, have

a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patternssuch as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepanciesin cyclone frequencies between different climatemodels.

More intense and long-lived cyclones have a greaterchance of impacting on inland regions such as theED region, from the decay of cyclones into rain bearingdepressions or the cyclones themselves trackingfurther inland. Projected southward shifts in the

primary regions of cyclone development through thecoming century (Abbs et al, 2006; Leslie et al, 2007)could result in a greater cyclone impact in the EasternDowns region.

935765504631(66–127)(46–76)(50–86)(44–60)(42–56)

Miles


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot days per yea r above 35 ˚ Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.

P h o t o :

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d



Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes#

Temperature°C

Annual 18.3 °C + 1.0[+0.7 to +1.4]

+ 1.2[+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 2.0[+1.3 to +2.8]

+ 1.6[+1.1 to +2.3]

+ 3.2[+2.1 to +4.5]

Summer 24.1 °C + 1.0[+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2[+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.8]

+ 1.6[+1.0 to +2.4]

+ 3.1[+2.0 to +4.6]

Autumn 18.9 °C + 1.0[+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2[+0.7 to +1.7]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.8]

+ 1.6[+1.0 to +2.4]

+ 3.1[+2.0 to +4.6]

Winter 11.7 °C + 1.0[+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2[+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.7]

+ 1.6[+1.1 to +2.3]

+ 3.1[+2.1 to +4.4]

Spring 18.8 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.6]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +1.9]

+ 2.1[+1.4 to +3.1]

+ 1.8[+1.1 to +2.6]

+ 3.4[+2.2 to +5.0]

Rainfall%

Annual 694 mm -3[-11 to +5]

-3[-13 to +6]

-6[-21 to +10]

-5[-18 to +8]

-9[-32 to +16]

Summer 262 mm -1[-10 to +10]

-1[-12 to +11]

-1[-19 to +19]

-1[-16 to +16]

-2[-29 to +30]

Autumn 149 mm -3[-15 to +9]

-4[-17 to +11]

-6[-27 to +18]

-5[-23 to +15]

-10[-40 to +29]

Winter 99 mm -6[-16 to +4]

-7[-18 to +5]

-11[-29 to +8]

-9[-25 to +7]

-17[-43 to +13]

Spring 178 mm -6[-18 to +5]

-7[-20 to +6]

-11[-32 to +10]

-10[-27 to +9]

-18[-46 to +17]


Annual 1737 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 3[+2 to +5]

+ 7[+4 to +10]

+ 5[+4 to +8]

+ 11[+7 to +15]

Summer 617 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 3[+2 to +4]

+ 6[+3 to +10]

+ 5[+3 to +9]

+ 10[+5 to +17]

Autumn 387 mm + 4[+2 to +6]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 7[+4 to +12]

+ 6[+3 to +10]

+ 12[+6 to +19]

Winter 235 mm + 4[+2 to +7]

+ 5[+2 to +7]

+ 8[+4 to +14]

+ 7[+3 to +12]

+ 13[+6 to +22]

Spring 502 mm + 3[+2 to +4]

+ 3[+2 to +5]

+ 6[+3 to +9]

+ 5[+3 to +7]

+ 9[+5 to +14]

Table 2. Summary of projections for the Eastern Downs* To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



Impa cts of clima te chang e onthe Eastern Downs reg ionProjections for the ED region include a declinein rainfall, with increasing temperature andevaporation in conjunction with more extreme climateevents. The temperature projections for inaction onclimate change suggest a temperature increase welloutside the range of temperatures ever experiencedover the last 50 years. The projections for temperatureand number of hot days are all in the samedirection—increasing.

Agriculture is a signi cant industry for the EasternDowns, covering such cropping enterprises as wheat,sorghum, barley and cotton, as well as the cattle anddairy industries. Such industries will likely be exposedunder future changes to the climate. For example:

In the winter of 2050, under the high emissions•

scenario, the predicted decline in rainfall(-11 per cent), increasing high temperatures(+1.9 °C) and an increase in evaporation(+8 per cent) could result in challenges insupplying suf cient water to meet demand.

Increase heat stress on intensively managed•

livestock is likely to occur.

Increased climate variability along with changes to•

temperature, seasonality of rainfall and reduced soilmoisture are likely to impact on the dynamics ofpests, diseases and weeds and reduce grain quality.

Adaptive responses to these impacts are likely toinclude diversi cation of farm enterprises,opportunistic planting, zero till practices, crop/cultivarselection, increased monitoring and adoption ofIntegrated Pest Management Practices, changes totiming of planting and cultivar selection. For thegrazing industry breed selection, increased use ofdietary supplements; and increased planting

of shade trees may need to be considered.

Heatwaves characterised by extreme temperatures—high 30s or even 40s—persisting for a number of days,can result in signi cant health impacts such as heatexhaustion and increased mortality among vulnerablesectors of the community such as the very young orold. It may be more dif cult for communities inlocations that have not typically experiencedthese extremes on a regular basis to adapt tothese conditions.

Water availability is also a major issue for theregion, especially in the large population centreof Toowoomba (CSIRO, 2008). Such challengesare already being recognised and the QueenslandGovernment, through the development of the EasternDowns Regional Plan, is responding to the impacts ofclimate change, particularly in regard to water resourceplanning. For example, drought conditions in recentyears have highlighted the need for long-term watersupply strategies.

In view of potential climate change scenarios,additional adaptation planning will continue to berequired to guide the Eastern Downs region’s futureinfrastructure requirements, protect its renownedlandscape and support its growing rural economy.



Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ), 2007, EasternDowns Regional Plan, Department of Infrastructure andPlanning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/regional-planning/eastern-downs-edrpac.html>


Leslie LM, Karoly DJ, Leplastrier M and Buckley BW 2007, Variabilityof Tropical Cyclones over the Southwest Paci c Ocean usingHigh Resolution Climate Model, Meteorology and Physics 97(Special Issue on Tropical Cyclones),<ftp.gfdl.noaa.gov/pub/rt/Leslieetal97.pdf>


References

Abbs D, Aryal S, Campbell E, McGregor J, Nguyen K, Palmer M, RafterA, Watterson I and Bates B 2006, Projections of Extreme Rainfalland Cyclones: Final Report to the Australian Greenhouse Of ce,CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra,<www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/abbsdj_2006b.pdf>


Commonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation( CSIRO ) and BoM 2007, Climate Change in Australia: TechnicalReport 2007, CSIRO, Melbourne,<www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au>

CSIRO 2008, Surat Basin Scoping Study: Enhancing regional andcommunity capacity for mining and energy driven regional

economic development. Report to the Southern InlandQueensland Area Consultative Committee and AustralianGovernment Department of Infrastructure, Transport, RegionalDevelopment and Local Government. Commonwealth Scienti cand Industrial Research Organisation Sustainable Ecosystems,Canberra,<http://www.csiro.au/resources/SuratBasinScopingStudy.html>




Climate change in theFar North Queens land Reg ion

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate cha ngefor the Fa r North Queens land(FNQ) region.



TablelandsRegionalCouncil Cairns

RegionalCouncil

CassowaryCoast

RegionalCouncil

YarrabahShire Council

Wujal WujalShire Council

Cairns Aero

South Mossman Alchera Dve

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Key ndings

Tempera tureThere has been minimal change in the average annual temperature•in FNQ over the last decade (from 24.4 °C to 24.5 °C).


By 2070, Cairns may have more than eight times the number of•days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of four per year to anaverage of 34 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by more than two per•cent compared to the previous 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, whichmakes it dif cult to detect any in uence of climate change atthis stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an annual•increase of 22 per cent to a decrease of 26 per cent by 2070.The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decreaseunder all emissions scenarios.


Extreme eventsThe 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by•37 cm in Cairns if certain conditions eventuate. These conditionsare a 30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase in cycloneintensity and frequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards incyclone tracks.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe Far North Queensland regionhas a diversity of climates basedon distance from the coast andelevation, but is generally hot andhumid with a distinct ‘wet’ season(December–March).

Rainfall is associated with

moist onshore south-east tradewinds, monsoonal lows ortropical cyclones.

The Wet Tropics is at the extremelywet end of the hydrologicalspectrum, in contrast with manyother tropical forest regions ofthe world, such as Amazoniaand Southeast Asia where rainfallevents are less extreme and moreevenly spread throughout the year.

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DemographicsThe region is centred on the coastalcity of Cairns. It includes Daintreeand Mossman to the north, Innisfail

to the south and the AthertonTablelands to the west.

In 2007, the region’s populationwas 226 266 and is projected toincrease beyond 293 900 by 2026.

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

Importa nt industriesof the reg ion

The major industries are landand marine-based tourism, aswell as sheries, horticultureand bre crops. Other valueadding industries are aviation,biotechnology, marine training,electronics, general lightmanufacturing, steel fabricationand boat building.

Mining activities have also recentlyemerged near Herberton (zinc) and

Mareeba (metallic and non-metallic).Cairns is the major tourism, businessand service hub for the region.

Far North Queensland containsa number of world heritage-listedareas, including the iconic GreatBarrier Reef, and the Wet Tropicsand Daintree rainforests, which aremajor world biodiversity hotspotsand signi cant internationaltourist destinations.

(Extracted from the Far NorthQueensland Regional Plan)



were aggregated across the FNQ region. The uctuation and trends inthe observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.


To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland, climate change projections were developed usingthe IPCC low (B1) medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapidshift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B)scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. Thehigh (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.

Greenhouse gas emissions are currently tracking above the highestIPCC emissions scenario (A1FI). The low and medium scenariosare presented to show the potential bene ts of action to reducegreenhouse gas emissions.





temperature in the FNQ region has risen slightly, witha further increase over the last decade (1998–2007).

The average annual temperature was 24.4 °Cin the 30-year period from 1971–2000, whichis a 0.1 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average.Over the last decade it has risen by a further 0.1 °C.

The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over time isrepresented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greater in thespring, with the average over the last decade increasingby 0.5 °C, compared to the 1961–1990 average.

Tempera ture ext remes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uenceof regional topography, proximity to the ocean andprevailing winds, location-speci c data are requiredwhen considering changes in these extreme eventsover time.

Historical temperature records for Cairns (Figure 2)show that there has not been the increase in thenumber of hot days that is seen in other Queenslandlocations over recent decades.

30.130.4

32.132.1

29.529.8

26.827.2

32.032.5

M a x

i m u m


( ° C )

Year

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

29

30

31

32

31

32

33

28

29

30

31

26

27

2829

31

32

33

34

Figure 1: Historical annual a nd s eas onal maximumtemperatures for the Fa r North Queensland regionfor the period 1950–2007, compared to the ba seperiod 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve yea r running a verag e.The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.


Average maximum temperature has risen slightlyin the Far North Queensland region

1950 19701960 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s

> 3 5

° C

Year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ° C for Cairns

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ° C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ila ble(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be grea ter than wha tis sho wn).


No observable change in the number of da ysover 35 ° C in Ca irns



Rainfall (BoM, 2008)Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors such astopography and vegetation, and broader scale weather

patterns, for example El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. To understand how this naturaltemporal variation changes rainfall patterns, long-term rainfall records are required. The BoM has beencollecting rainfall data for the FNQ region since 1897.

The variability in annual rainfall is shown in the topgraph in Figure 3. The graph shows that rainfall inrecent years has been well within that expectedfrom natural variability.


Over the most recent decade, there has been a21 per cent increase in the average winter rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. Summer averagerainfall has increased by 10 per cent. This increase isdue to consistently wet summers through the latterhalf of the 1990s and is well within the bounds ofnatural variability.

EvaporationPotential evaporation is a measure of the evaporative(or drying) power of the atmosphere. The potentialevaporation rate assumes that there is an unlimitedsupply of water to evaporate (either from the soil orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporationcan differ from actual evaporation, a change inpotential evaporation gives a good indication of thechange in the evaporative power of the atmosphere.

Networks to measure potential evaporation are notas well developed as those that measure temperatureand rainfall and there are insuf cient data available toindicate the changes over time.

Averaged over the Far North Queensland region, theannual mean potential evaporation over the period1971–2000 (1999 mm) is signi cantly greater than theannual mean rainfall over the same period (1250 mm),which contributes to the depletion of soil moisture.

T o t a l r a

i n f a l l ( m m

)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

500

1000

1500

200400600800

100012001400

200

400

600

0

50

100

0

100

200

300

12211189(2.7%)

725661(9.8%)

355313(−11.8%)

6655(20.9%)

130117(11.3%)

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

Figure 3: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfall for the Far North Queensland region forthe period 1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.The difference in rainfall betwe en the bas eline and lastdeca de is show n in per cent.

Note: vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.Data source: BoM, 2008





between January and March, but tropical cyclones inQueensland can occur anytime over the period fromNovember to April.

On average, 4.7 tropical cyclones per year affect theQueensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Area ofResponsibility. This area includes all of Queensland,a large portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria,Northern NSW and extends out to 600 km off theQueensland coast.

There is a relationship between the impact of

cyclones on eastern Australia and the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Overallcyclone activity in Australia decreases during anEl Niño pattern and increases in a La Niña pattern.However, for northern Queensland regions, such asFNQ, this trend is not evident, despite the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) (Figure 4).

Projected clima te change inFa r North QueenslandGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules that

describe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.

CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the Far North Queensland region havebeen extracted from this dataset for the QueenslandClimate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE). Theprojections presented here are relative to the baseperiod of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little differenceunder the high, medium and low emissions scenariosto 2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate changeprojections for Far North Queensland have beencalculated on a mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for Far NorthQueensland in 2030, 2050 and 2070 are describedin Table 2. The numbers shown in brackets indicate therange of the results from the Global Climate Models.



Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by one per cent (-13 mm).

The largest seasonal decrease of ve per cent(-7 mm) is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increaseis projected to be around three per cent (60 mm),with some models projecting up to a ve per centincrease in autumn (21 mm), summer (27 mm) andwinter (20 mm).

N u m

b e r o

f c y c l o n e s

Decade 1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6


Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2

6 1 9 0 7

– 1 9 1 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Figure 4: Tota l and overland number of tropica lcyclones for the Far North Queensland region forthe period 1907–2006Adapted from BoM, 2008

Occurrence of cyclones a cross the FNQ region



2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature will increase by 1.1 °C and 1.8 °Cunder the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by one per cent (-13 mm)and two per cent (-25 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 10 per cent (-13 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario an increase in annualpotential evaporation of up to nine per cent(180 mm) is projected with the best estimate beingsix per cent (120 mm). Summer is projected to havethe greatest increase of up to 11 per cent (58 mm).


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by two per cent (-25 mm)

and three per cent (-38 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 16 per cent (-21 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario, annual potentialevaporation is projected to increase by as much as15 per cent (300 mm). Autumn, summer and winterare projected to be the seasons most impactedwith increases up to 17 per cent (73 mm, 90 mm

and 67 mm respectively) in some models.


in a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for an observing station in the FNQ region withgood historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Cairns,the number of hot days above 35 °C is projected toincrease by more than eight times, from four daysto 34 days.

Cyclones and sea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patternssuch as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepancies incyclone frequencies between different climate models.

Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency off theeast coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006).However, they also simulate an increase in the numberof long-lived and severe (Category 3–5) easternAustralian tropical cyclones. Under three differentstudies the number of severe tropical cyclonesis projected to increase by 56 per cent by 2050(Walsh et al, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050 (Leslie et al,2007) and 140 per cent by 2070 (Abbs et al., 2006).

With projected increases in the intensity of cyclonesand projected rise in mean sea levels (CSIRO & BoM,2007), storm surges will be able to penetrate furtherinland greatly increasing the risk of damage to naturalecosystems and infrastructure and the risk of erosionin low-lying coastal regions.

341013764(14–76)(7–18)(8–26)(5–11)(5–8)

Cairns


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot da ys per year above 35 ˚ Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)

Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.

P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d



The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected toincrease by 37 cm in Cairns if certain conditionseventuate. These conditions are a 30 cm sea-levelrise, a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensity andfrequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards incyclone tracks (Hardy et al, 2004).


Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 24.4 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.5]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.4]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.0]

+ 2.8[+2.0 to +3.9]

Summer 27.1 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3] + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.6] + 1.8[+1.2 to +2.6] + 1.5[+1.0 to +2.2] + 2.9[+2.0 to +4.2]

Autumn 24.5 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.0]

+ 2.9[+2.0 to +4.0]

Winter 20.5 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.7[+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 1.4[+1.0 to +2.0]

+ 2.8[+1.9 to +4.0]

Spring 25.6 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.0[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.7[+1.2 to +2.4]

+ 1.4[+1.0 to +2.0]

+ 2.8[+1.9 to +3.9]

Rainfall%

Annual 1250 mm -1[-9 to +7]

-1[-11 to +8]

-2[-17 to +14]

-2[-14 to +11]

-3[-26 to +22]

Summer 709 mm -1[-9 to +9]

-1[-11 to +11]

-2[-18 to +18]

-1[-15 to +15]

-2[-27 to +28]

Autumn 350 mm -1[-14 to +12]

-2[-16 to +15]

-3[-26 to +24]

-2[-22 to +20]

-4[-39 to +39]

Winter 58 mm -1[-16 to +14]

-1[-18 to +17]

-2[-29 to +27]

-1[-25 to +23]

-2[-42 to +44]

Spring 134 mm -5[-22 to +10]

-6[-24 to +12]

-10[-38 to +20]

-8[-33 to +17]

-16[-53 to +33]


Annual 1999 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 3[+2 to +5]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 5[+4 to +8]

+ 10[+7 to +15]

Summer 531 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 3[+2 to +4]

+ 7[+3 to +11]

+ 5[+3 to +9]

+ 11[+5 to +17]

Autumn 428 mm + 4[+2 to +5]

+ 4[+2 to +7]

+ 7[+5 to +10]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 11[+7 to +17]

Winter 395 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 4[+3 to +6]

+ 7[+4 to +10]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 11[+7 to +17]

Spring 642 mm + 3[+2 to +4]

+ 3[+2 to +5]

+ 6[+4 to +8]

+ 5[+3 to +7]

+ 9[+6 to +13]

Table 2. S ummary of projections for Far North Queensla nd** To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the number

outside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



Tropical diseases such as the Ross River virus are•also expected to increase under climate change.Changes in rainfall, high tides and maximumtemperatures have all been shown to be keydeterminants of Ross River Virus transmission(Tong et al, 2004). The number of cases of denguefever in Australia is projected to increase from310 000 in 2000, to 540 000 by 2030 under thehigh global emissions scenario.

In Cairns, heat-related deaths are projected to grow•annually, from approximately one to 4–5 by 2020and 11–26 heat-related deaths by 2050.

In Far North Queensland, the tourism industry is•reliant on healthy reef and rainforest environments.These environments are particularly vulnerable tothe impacts of climate change.

Increased temperatures are likely to cause more•regular coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef.These bleaching events are very likely to becomemore severe as temperatures increase and suchevents could occur annually by 2050. As aconsequence of this, the Great Barrier Reefis very unlikely to survive in its present form.The degradation of the reef will not only be aloss of great intrinsic value, it will also come ata great cost to the tourism industry (NRM, 2004).

In addition, the increasing concentration of carbon•dioxide is causing increased acidi cation of thesea water which, in turn, impacts the coralformation (De’ath et al, 2009). This adds a furtherdimension to the Great Barrier Reef’s vulnerabilityto climate change.

Impa cts of clima te chang e onthe Fa r North Queens land reg ionProjections for the Far North Queensland regioninclude a slight decline in rainfall with increasingtemperature and evaporation, in conjunction withmore extreme climate events, such as cyclonic weatherand sea-level rise. The temperature projections forinaction on climate change suggest a temperatureincrease well outside the range of temperatures everexperienced over the last 50 years. The projectionsfor temperature and number of hot days are all in thesame direction—increasing.

The FNQ region is particularly vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change as changes in temperatureor rainfall could have signi cant impacts on the cane,dairy, beef and horticulture industries. People willalso be affected, as the rate of heat-related healthproblems increases and increased exposure tocatastrophic events, such as cyclones and oodingendanger lives and property.

As the communities of FNQ are built around thetourism, agriculture and sheries sectors, there aremany activities that are likely to be adversely affectedby the projected increases in temperature andchanging rainfall patterns. Some examples are:

Possible changes in the frequency and intensity• of extreme climatic events will present continualchallenges to the region. For example, moreextreme storm events will have greater impacts,affecting the local community and infrastructure(transport, communications and public services),and may place stress on emergency services.




Hardy T, Mason L, Astorquia A and Harper BA 2004, QueenslandClimate Change and Community Vulnerability to TropicalCyclones: Ocean Hazards Assessment Stage 3. Report to theQueensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines,Brisbane,<www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AboutUs/Publications/ByType/Reports/ClimateChange/VulnerabilityToTropicalCyclones/Stage3/FullReportHighRes.pdf>

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) 2007, ClimateChange 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working GroupsI, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team,Pachauri, RK and Reisinger, A (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva,Switzerland,<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf>



Tong S, Hu W and McMichael AJ 2004, Climate variability and RossRiver virus transmission in Townsville region, Australia 1985 to1996, Tropical Medicine and International Health 9:2,<http://eprints.qut.edu.au/8888/1/8888.pdf>


References



Commonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and BoM 2007, Climate Change in Australia: TechnicalReport 2007, CSIRO, Melbourne,<www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au>

Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2008, QueenslandFuture Populations: Appendix C (based on reformed Local

Government Areas), Department of Infrastructure and Planning,Brisbane,<www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/report/future-population/appendix-c.xls>

DIP 2009, Far North Queensland Regional Plan: 2009-2031,Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/regional-planning/regional-plan-4.html>

Department o f Nat ural Resources a nd Mines 2004, Climate Change:the Challenge for Natural Resource Management, Department ofNatural Resources and Mines, Brisbane,<http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AboutUs/Publications/ByType/Reports/ClimateChangeChallengeForNaturalResourceManagement/Booklet_HighQuality.pdf>





Climate change in theGulf Reg ion

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate change forthe Gulf (GR) region.


rainfall and evapora tion for2030, 2050 and 2070 underlow, medium and highgreenhouse ga s emissionsscena rios a re compared withhistorica l climate records .


CarpentariaShire

Council

BurkeShire

Council

CroydonShire

Council

MorningtonShireCouncil

KowanyamaShire

Council

EtheridgeShire

Council

DoomadgeeShire

Council BurketownPost Office

P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/climate-q-report 302/423ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandGR2

Key ndingsTempera ture

Average annual temperature in the Gulf region has increased•0.2 °C over the last decade (from 26.6 °C to 26.8 °C).


By 2070, Burketown may have more than twice the number•of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 102 per yearto an average of 222 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade increased by more•than 3 per cent compared to the previous 30 years. This isgenerally consistent with natural variability experienced overthe last 110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect any in uenceof climate change at this stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an•annual increase of 24 per cent to a decrease of 26 per cent by2070. The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change showsa decrease under all emissions scenarios.


Extreme eventsThe sea-level rise on parts of the coastline around the Gulf•of Carpentaria is projected to be up to 25 mm above the globalaverage sea-level rise by 2070 (this value is calculated usingthe SRES A1B or medium emissions scenario).

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe Gulf region is in the wet-drytropics (savannah) and is generallyhot to very hot throughout theyear, with a distinct hot and humid‘wet season’ (November–March)where rainfall is generated byheavy thunderstorms, monsoonallows or tropical cyclones.

There are several national parks ofsignicance in the region (e.g. LawnHill), as well as the newly listedRiversleigh World Heritage Area.

DemographicsThe Gulf region is sparselyinhabited with land area ofapproximately 186 000square kilometres.

In 2007, the region’s populationwas 6201, and is projected toincrease slightly by 2026(population guresexclude Kowanyama).

More than 55 per cent of theresident population is of Aboriginalor Torres Strait Islander descent.

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d

P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n d


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/climate-q-report 303/423ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland GR3

Importa nt industriesof the reg ionThe Gulf economy relies on theabundance of natural resourcesin the region, for example, the shing resources of the Gulf ofCarpentaria and the mineralwealth of the Western Gulf Region,which lies within Queensland’sNorth West Mineral Province(Australia’s premier base metalprovince and possibly the world’spremier zinc province).

Pastoral land, retail, hospitalityand tourism sectors also makesigni cant contributions togross regional product, withsigni cant potential forexpansion of ecotourism.

Due to the remoteness and sizeof the Gulf region, business andservices are focussed on smallcentres such as Burketown,Karumba, Normanton,Croydon and Georgetown.

(Extracted from the Gulf RegionalDevelopment Plan)

Unders ta nding the clima te a ndhow it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate changewill lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the risk ofhuman-induced climate change requires an understanding of thecurrent climate using historical data and future climate scenarios.These future scenarios are prepared using data from GlobalClimate Models.


were aggregated across the Gulf region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.


To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland, climate change projections were developed using theIPCC low (B1) medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapidshift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B)scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. Thehigh (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.






average temperature in the Gulf region has risenslightly, with this increase continuing over the lastdecade (1998–2007). The average annual temperaturewas 26.6 °C in the 30-year period from 1971–2000,which is a 0.1 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average.However, over the last decade it has risen by afurther 0.2 °C.

The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over time isrepresented by the black line in each graph.The changes in maximum temperatures is greater inthe autumn and spring, with the average over the lastdecade increasing by 0.5 °C compared to the 1961–1990 average.


Historical temperature records for Burketown (Figure 2)show that there is no trend in the number of days whenthe maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C. In general,most coastal areas (much of the Gulf region) are lessprone to extreme temperatures than inland areas.

323334353637

323334353637

303132333435

272829303132

343536373839

33.133.4

35.335.2

32.633.1

29.029.4

35.536.0

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

M a x i m u m

T e m p e r a

t u r e

( ° C )

Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Average maximum temperature ha s risen slightly inthe Gulf region

Figure 1: Historical annual a nd s eas onal maximumtemperatures for the Gulf region for the period1950–2007, compared to the bas e period1961–1990



1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

No observable change in the number of da ysover 35 ˚ C in Burketown

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Burketown

The bla nk spaces are th ose years where the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ila ble(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be grea ter than wha tis sho wn).





Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors suchas topography and vegetation, and broader scaleweather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how thisnatural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns,long term rainfall records are required. The BoM hasbeen collecting rainfall data for the Gulf regionsince 1897.

The variability in annual and seasonal rainfall isoutlined in Figure 3. The annual rainfall averaged overthe last decade has increased by 14 per cent compared

to the 1961–1990 average, which is well within thenatural variability that has been observed over thelast 100 years.

Figure 3 shows the dominant summer rainfall pattern

with a 1961–1990 average rainfall around 520 mm,compared to an autumn average (the next mostdominant rainfall period) of around 170 mm.

EvaporationPotential evaporation is a measure of the evaporative(or drying) power of the atmosphere. The potentialevaporation rate assumes that there is an unlimitedsupply of water to evaporate (either from the soil orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporationcan differ from actual evaporation, a change in

potential evaporation gives a good indication of thechange in the evaporative power of the atmosphere.


Averaged over the Gulf region, the annual meanpotential evaporation over the period 1971–2000(2549 mm) is almost three times the annual meanrainfall over the same period (855 mm) whichcontributes to the depletion of soil moisture.

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

Year

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

500

1000

1500

882775(13.9%)

500

1000

1500

609517(17.9%)

0

200

400

182173(4.9%)

0

50

100

2113(61.6%)

0

100

200

8973(22.6%)

Figure 3: Historical annua l and s easona ltota l ra infall for the Gulf region for the period1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both the ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.The d ifference in rainfall betwe en the ba seline a nd

last de cade is s hown in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.







between January and March, but tropical cyclonesin Queensland can occur anytime over the periodfrom November to April.

On average, 4.7 tropical cyclones per year affectthe Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Areaof Responsibility. This area includes all of Queensland,a large portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria,Northern NSW and extends out to 600 km off theQueensland coast.

Cyclone activity in Australia decreases during

an El Niño pattern and increases in a La Niñapattern (CSIRO & BoM, 2007). However, for northernQueensland regions such as the Gulf, this trend isnot evident (Figure 4). There have been at least twocyclones cross the coast each decade in this regionsince 1907.

Projected clima te change inthe Gulf reg ionGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate change

projections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the Gulf region have been extractedfrom this dataset for the Queensland Climate ChangeCentre of Excellence (QCCCE). The projectionspresented here are relative to the base period of1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference underthe low, medium and high emissions scenarios to2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate change projectionsfor the Gulf have been presented on a mid-rangeemissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for the Gulf Regionin 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described in Table 2.The numbers shown in brackets indicate the rangeof the results from the Global Climate Models.



Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by one per cent (-9 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of six per cent

(-5 mm) is projected for spring.Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increaseis projected to be around three per cent (76 mm),with some models projecting up to a six per centincrease in winter (32 mm).

2050 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.2 °Cand 2.0 °C under high and low emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

N u m

b e r o

f c y c l o n e s

Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6


Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2

6 1 9 0 7

– 1 9 1 6

El Niño and La Niña weather pa tterns a cross theGulf region

Figure 4: Tota l and overland number of tropica lcyclones for Gulf region for the period 1907–2006Adapted from BoM, 2008



Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall willdecrease by one per cent (-9 mm) under both highand low emissions scenarios. The largest seasonaldecrease of 12 per cent (-10 mm) under the highemissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario, annual potentialevaporation is projected to increase by as muchas nine per cent (229 mm) with the best estimatebeing six per cent (153 mm).

2070 (low a nd high emiss ions scena rios )Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.6 °Cand 3.2 °C for low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projections

across the seasons.Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by one per cent (-9 mm)and two per cent (-17 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 18 per cent (-16 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario, annual potentialevaporation is projected to increase by as much

as 14 per cent (357 mm). Summer is projectedto be the season most impacted with increasesup to 15 per cent (98 mm) in some models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere willincrease the likelihood of a record high temperaturein a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above

35 °C for an observing station in the Gulf regionwith good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 forBurketown the number of hot days above 35 °Care projected to more than double from 102 daysto 222 days.

Cyclones and sea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,

characteristics of a region and global climate patternssuch as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepancies incyclone frequencies between different climate models.

Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency off theeast coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006),however they also simulate an increase in thenumber of long-lived and severe (Category 3–5)eastern Australian tropical cyclones. Under threedifferent studies the number of severe tropical cyclones

is projected to increase by 56 per cent by 2050 (Walshet al, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050 (Leslie et al, 2007) and140 per cent by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006).


The sea-level rise on parts of the coastline aroundthe Gulf of Carpentaria is projected to be up to 25 mmabove the global average sea-level rise by 2070

(this value is calculated using the SRES A1B ormedium emissions scenario) (CSIRO, 2008).

These rises in sea levels will have serious implicationsfor the coastal communities and ecological assetsof the Gulf region, ranging from contaminated freshwater aqui ers through to regular inundation ofcritical infrastructure.


222163175148138102(182–266)(145–191)(151–207)(130–165)(127–154)

Burketown


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High





Impa cts of clima te change on theGulf reg ionProjections for the Gulf region include a slightdecline in rainfall with increasing temperatureand evaporation, in conjunction with more extremeclimate events and sea-level rise. The temperatureprojections for inaction on climate change suggesta temperature increase well outside the range oftemperatures ever experienced over the last 50 years.The projections for temperature and number of hotdays are all in the same direction—increasing.

The Gulf region is particularly vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change as changes in temperatureor rainfall could have signi cant impacts on thenatural resource assets of the region. People willalso be affected, as the rate of heat-related healthproblems increases and increased exposure tocatastrophic events, such as cyclones and oodingendanger lives and property.

As the communities of the Gulf region are builtaround the tourism, agriculture and sheries sectors,the projected increases in temperature and changingrainfall patterns will pose many challenges. Someexamples are:

Tropical diseases such as the Ross River Virus,•

dengue fever and malaria are expected to increaseunder climate change. Changes in rainfall, hightides and maximum temperatures have all beenshown to be key determinants of Ross River Virustransmission (Tong et al, 2004). The number of

cases of dengue fever in Australia is projected toincrease from 310 000 in 2000, to 540 000 by 2030under the high global emissions mitigationscenario. With respect to malaria, a key concern forthose inhabiting the Torres Strait and far northQueensland is the contamination of the localmosquito population due to infected peopleentering the region or wind-borne mosquitoesbringing the disease from Papua New Guinea(Green, 2008).

Possible changes in the frequency and intensity•of extreme climatic events will present continualchallenges to the region. For example, increasesin extreme storm events causing more cyclonedamage and ash ooding will affect the localagriculture and shing industries.

A high proportion of the Gulf region’s population•lives on the coast, thus, greatly compounding thelikely consequence of extreme storms andcyclones. The riskiest areas are those closest to thecoast, which can incur ash ooding, wind damageand considerable structural damage from fallingtrees, affecting industry and infrastructureincluding water, sewerage and stormwater,transport and communications.

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References




CSIRO 2008, Sea level rise: Understanding the past-Improving

projections for the future, CSIRO Marine and AtmosphericResearch, Canberra<http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_about_intro.html>

Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ), 2000, GulfRegional Plan, Department of Infrastructure and Planning,Brisbane, <www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/gulf-region/grdp_dec_2000.pdf>


Green D 2008, Climate Impacts on the Health of Remote NorthernAustralian Indigenous Communities. Commissioned by the

Garnaut Climate Change Review,<http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/03-CIndigenous/$File/03-C%20Indigenous.pdf>



Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research 2007, QueenslandRegional Pro les, (based on reformed Local Government Areas),

Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research, Brisbane,<statistics.oesr.qld.gov.au/qld-regional-pro les>






Climate change in theMaranoa and Dis tricts Region

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate cha ngefor the Maranoa and Districts(MD) reg ion.

Projected average temperature,rainfall and evapora tion for2030, 2050 and 2070 underlow, medium and highgreenhouse ga s emissionsscena rios a re compared withhistorica l climate records.

New South Wales


MilesPost Office

St GeorgePost Office

Mulga Downs

RomaRegionalCouncil

BalonneShire

Council


GoondiwindiRegionalCouncil


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Average annual temperature in the MD region has increased•

0.5 °C over the last decade (from 20.2 °C to 20.7 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 5 °C by 2070, leading•

to annual temperatures well beyond those experienced over thelast 50 years.

By 2070, Miles may have triple the number of days over 35 °C•

(increasing from an average of 31 per year to an average of 93 peryear by 2070) and St George may have more than twice the numberof days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 53 per year to anaverage of 116 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by over eight•

per cent compared with the previous 30 years. This is generallyconsistent with natural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect any in uence ofclimate change at this stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an•

annual increase of 17 per cent to a decrease of 34 per cent by 2070.The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decreaseunder all emissions scenarios.



Extreme eventsMore intense and long-lived cyclones have a greater chance•

of impacting on inland regions such as in Maranoa and Districts,

from the decay of cyclones into rain bearing depressions or thecyclones themselves tracking further inland.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe Maranoa and Districts hasa semi-arid climate with very hotsummers and warm dry winters.Rainfall in the Maranoa andDistricts is highly seasonal andirregular, with most rain occuringduring the summer (October–March) either as heavy

thunderstorms or as tropicalrain depressions.

The region includes a signi cantpart of the Queensland MurrayDarling basin and nationallyimportant wetlands including theGums Lagoon at Tara, the BalonneRiver Floodplain and Myola-MulgaDowns Salt Lake and Claypansof the Balonne.

DemographicsIn 2007, the region’s populationwas 17 947 and is projected toincrease beyond 19 700 by 2026(both population gures excludeWaggamba and Goodiwindi).

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

Note: recent changes to the Maranoaand Districts regional planning areasaffect population gures.

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Importa nt industriesof the reg ionThe region is predominantlyagricultural based on sheep andcattle grazing, grain and cerealcropping, irrigated cottoncropping and cypress pinetimber production.

Agricultural production inMaranoa and Districts region isworth approximately $620 millionper year, over half of which isrepresented by crops and the restby stock production or disposals.

The region offers signi cant,relatively untapped reserves ofthermal coal and coal seam gas.This has seen the developmentof a number of power stationsto supply eastern Australia’sgrowing energy needs.

The development of energyresources in the Surat and Bowenbasins are expected to be theprimary driver for economic andsocial change throughout the nexttwenty years. This change has thepotential for signi cant economicand employment impactson the region, especially in thetowns of Miles, Roma and Injune.

The extensive gas pipelinenetwork in the Maranoa andDistricts region supports furtherexploration and developmentof coal seam gas reserves.

(Extracted from the Draft Maranoa andDistricts Regional Plan)

Unders ta nding the clima te andhow it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate change willlead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the risk of human-induced climate change requires an understanding of the current climateusing historical data and future climate scenarios. These future scenariosare prepared using data from Global Climate Models.

MethodHistorical climate da taHistorical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)were aggregated across the MD region. The uctuations and trends in

the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.




Climate change projections

Queensland climate change projections were produced by theCommonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation(CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on the resultsfrom 23 Global Climate Models. Projections were provided for 2030,2050 and 2070. However, as the climate can vary signi cantly fromone year to the next, these projections show changes in averageclimate for three future 30-year periods centered on 2030, 2050and 2070.



Current climate

Temperature (BoM, 2008)Historical temperature records indicate the averagetemperature in the MD region has risen, with thisincrease accelerating over the last decade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 20.2 Cin the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a0.2 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average.However, over the last decade it has risen by a further0.5 °C, suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature.

The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over timeis represented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greaterin the autumn, with the average over the lastdecade increasing by 1.1 °C compared to the1961–1990 average.

Tempera ture extremes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number ofdays exceeding 35 °C) are single events that usuallydo not extend past a couple of days. Due to thein uence of regional topography and prevailing winds,location-speci c data are required when consideringchanges in these extreme events over time.

Historical temperature records for Miles (Figure 2)show that since the late 1970s the number of dayswhen the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °Chas tended to increase. However, a similar increasingtrend has not been observed in St George (Figure 3).

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Miles

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ila ble(i.e. the a ctual values may in fact begreater than what is shown).


The number of da ys over 35 ˚ C has risen in Miles

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19601960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 1: Historical annua l and sea sona l maximumtemperatures for the Maranoa and Districts regionfor the period 1950–2007, compared to the ba seperiod 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve yea r running a verag e.The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical scales may differ between graphs .


Average maximum temperature has risen in theMaranoa and Districts region

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

262728293031

31323334353637

25262728293031

18192021222324

26272829303132

27.228.2

33.634.6

27.128.2

19.720.7

28.429.3



Rainfall (BoM, 2008)Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors suchas topography and vegetation, and broader scaleweather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events.

To understand how this natural temporal variationchanges rainfall patterns, long-term rainfall recordsare required. The BoM has been collecting rainfalldata for the Maranoa and Districts region since 1897.

The variability in annual rainfall is shown in Figure 4.The dominant wet period of the 1950s and 1970scontrasts with the dry years that have beenexperienced for the last two decades.


Over the most recent decade, there has beena 28.5 per cent decline in the average autumnrainfall compared to the 1961–1990 average.However, there have been similar periods ofrainfall decline in the past.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

1970 1980 1990

Figure 3: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for St George

Blank spa ces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ilable(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be great er than wha tis sho wn).


No observable change in the number of daysover 35 ˚ C in St George

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfall for the Maranoa and Dist ricts region for theperiod 1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running average.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.The d ifference in rainfall betwee n the bas eline and

last de cade is sh own in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between g raphs. Data source: BoM, 2008


200400600800

1000

100200300400500

0

200

400

0

100

200

300

0

100

200

300

566531(−6.1%)

207200(−3.5%)

142102(−28.5%)

9590(5.9%)

135127(6.4%)

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year





supply of water to evaporate (either from the soil orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporationcan differ from actual evaporation, a change inpotential evaporation gives a good indication of thechange in the evaporative power of the atmosphere.


Averaged over the Maranoa and Districts region, the

annual mean potential evaporation over the period1971–2000 (1985 mm) is just over three times greaterthan the annual mean rainfall over the same period(582 mm), which contributes to the depletion ofsoil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effects suchas extreme waves combine to make the total cyclonehazard. This hazard is greatest in Queensland between January and March, but tropical cyclones inQueensland can occur anytime over the periodfrom November to April.

While having little direct effect on the inland Maranoaand Districts region, tropical cyclone systems can beassociated with ooding in inland regions throughthe weakening of such systems into signi cantrain-bearing depressions.

Projected climate chang e inMa ra noa a nd Dis trictsGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the Maranoa and Districts region havebeen extracted from this dataset for the QueenslandClimate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE). Theprojections presented here are relative to the baseperiod of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little differenceunder the low, medium and high emissions scenariosto 2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate changeprojections for Maranoa and Districts have beenpresented on a mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for Maranoa andDistricts in 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described inTable 2. The numbers shown in brackets indicatethe range of the results from the GlobalClimate Models.

Overview of climate projectionsIn summary, the ‘best estimate’ changes totemperature and rainfall under the threeemissions scenarios are:

2030 (medium emissions scenario)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annual meantemperature (the average of all daily temperatureswithin a given year) is projected to increase by1.1 °C. A slightly greater increase is expected insummer and spring.

Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year) isprojected to decrease by three per cent (-17 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of six per cent isprojected for spring (-8 mm) and winter (-5 mm).




Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• :across all seasons the annual ‘best estimate’increase is projected to be around three per cent(60 mm), with some models projecting up to aseven per cent increase in winter (17 mm).

2050 (low a nd high emiss ions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.3 °C and2.2 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by four per cent (-23 mm)and six per cent (-35 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largest

seasonal decrease of 12 per cent (-16 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario an increase inannual potential evaporation of up to nine per cent(179 mm) is projected with the best estimate beingsix per cent (119 mm). Winter is projected to havethe greatest increase of up to 15 per cent (36 mm).


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by ve per cent (-29 mm)and 10 per cent (-58 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 18 per cent (-25 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :Under a high emissions scenario, annual potentialevaporation is projected to increase by as muchas 15 per cent (298 mm). Winter is projected tobe the season most impacted with increasesup to 24 per cent (58 mm) in some models.

Temperature ext remes

Global Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere willincrease the likelihood of a record high temperaturein a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for two observing stations in the Maranoa andDistricts with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Miles thenumber of hot days above 35 °C are projected to triplefrom 31 day to 93 days. Under the same scenario forSt George, the number of hot days would more thandouble and increase from 53 days to 116 days.

CyclonesExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climatepatterns such as the ENSO, making it dif cult topredict their frequency of occurrence. This resultsin discrepancies in cyclone frequencies betweendifferent climate models (Garnaut, 2008).

More intense and long-lived cyclones have a greaterchance of impacting on inland regions such as inMaranoa and Districts, from the decay of cyclonesinto rain bearing depressions or the cyclonesthemselves tracking further inland.


1168491757153(90–151)(72–101)(76–112)(65–87)(64–81)

St George

935765504631(66–127)(46–76)(50–86)(44–60)(42–56)

Miles


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High



Va ria ble Sea son

(1971–2000)

2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 20.2 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.6]

+ 1.3[+0.9 to +1.9]

+ 2.2[+1.4 to +3.1]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.6]

+ 3.5[+2.3 to +5.0]

Summer 26.9 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.6]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +2.0]

+ 2.2[+1.3 to +3.3]

+ 1.8[+1.1 to +2.7]

+ 3.5[+2.1 to +5.3]

Autumn 20.5 °C + 1.0[+0.6 to +1.6]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +1.9]

+ 2.1[+1.3 to +3.2]

+ 1.7[+1.1 to +2.7]

+ 3.4[+2.1 to +5.1]

Winter 12.7 °C + 1.0[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.2[+0.8 to +1.8]

+ 2.0[+1.3 to +2.9]

+ 1.7[+1.1 to +2.5]

+ 3.2[+2.1 to +4.7]

Spring 20.9 °C + 1.2[+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 1.4[+0.9 to +2.1]

+ 2.3[+1.5 to +3.4]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.9]

+ 3.8[+2.5 to +5.5]

Rainfall

%

Annual 582 mm -3[-13 to +5]

-4[-14 to +6]

-6[-23 to +11]

-5[-20 to +9]

-10[-34 to +17]

Summer 220 mm -1[-12 to +10]

-1[-13 to +12]

-2[-21 to +20]

-1[-18 to +16]

-3[-32 to +32]

Autumn 134 mm -4[-17 to +10]

-4[-19 to +12]

-7[-31 to +20]

-6[-26 to +17]

-11[-45 to +32]

Winter 87 mm -6[-19 to +6]

-7[-21 to +7]

-11[-33 to +11]

-9[-29 to +9]

-17[-48 to +17]

Spring 137 mm -6[-19 to +6]

-7[-21 to +7]

-12[-33 to +11]

-10[-29 to +9]

-18[-48 to +17]


Annual 1985 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 3[+1 to +6]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 5[+3 to +8]

+ 10[+6 to +15]

Summer 735 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 2[+2 to +4]

+ 6[+3 to +9]

+ 5[+2 to +8]

+ 9[+5 to +15]

Autumn 443 mm + 3[+2 to +6]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 7[+3 to +11]

+ 6[+3 to +9]

+ 11[+6 to +18]

Winter 242 mm + 4[+2 to +7]

+ 4[+2 to +7]

+ 8[+3 to +15]

+ 7[+3 to +12]

+ 13[+5 to +24]

Spring 569 mm + 3[+1 to +5]

+ 3[+1 to +6]

+ 5[+2 to +9]

+ 4[+1 to +8]

+ 8[+3 to +15]

Table 2. S ummary of projections for Maranoa and Dist ricts *

* To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model base

period of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.




Increased heat stress on cattle and crops may•

also occur. Adaptive responses are likely to includediversi cation of farm enterprises, opportunisticplanting, zero till practices, crop/cultivar selection,increased monitoring and adoption of IntegratedPest Management practices, changes to timingof planting and cultivar selection.

Impa cts of clima te chang e onthe Ma ra noa a nd Dist ricts reg ionProjections for the Maranoa and Districts regioninclude a decline in rainfall with increasingtemperature and evaporation, in conjunctionwith more extreme climate events. The temperatureprojections for inaction on climate change suggesta temperature increase well outside the range oftemperatures ever experienced over the last 50 years.The projections for temperature and number ofhot days are all in the same direction—increasing.

The two major water resources of the Maranoaand Districts region are surface water ows andgroundwater from the Great Artesian Basin.

The latter is much less exposed and sensitiveto climate change than surface water, due to thevery large scale of the Great Artesian Basin system.The increased demand on town water supplies islikely to be exacerbated by the effects of populationincreases associated with increased mining activityin some parts of the region.

The key pressures in the Maranoa and Districtsregion are changes in rainfall regime that lead toreduced average rainfall, more prolonged droughtand periodic extreme ow events. This may lead toa general shortage of water, although this may beoffset partly by extreme ood events and a predictedincrease in rainfall event intensity and rainfall runoff.

A reduction in very high daily ows could changevegetation downstream due to reduced inundation onthe oodplains and the shorter duration of ood events.

Agriculture is a signi cant industry for the Maranoaand Districts region covering cropping enterprisessuch as grain, cereal and cotton, as well as the cattleand dairy industry. Such industries will likely be

exposed to many challenges under future changes tothe climate. Some examples are:


scenario, the predicted decline in rainfall(-11 per cent), increasing high temperatures(+2.0 °C) and an increase in evaporation(+8 per cent) could result in challenges insupplying suf cient water to meet demand.

Increased variability and changes to temperature,•

seasonality of rainfall, reduced soil moisture, arelikely to impact on the dynamics of pests, diseases

and weeds and reduce grain quality. P

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References



Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2007, Maranoa andDistricts Regional Plan, Department of Infrastructure andPlanning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/maranoa/maranoa-districts-regional-plan.pdf>



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Climate change in theNorth Wes t Queens land Reg ion

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate cha ngefor the North Wes t Queens land(NWQ) region.

Projected average temperature,rainfall and evapora tion for2030, 2050 and 2070 underlow, medium and highgreenhouse ga s emissionsscena rios a re compared withhistorica l climate records.


MountIsaCity

FlindersShire

Council

McKinlayShire

Council

RichmondShireCouncil

CloncurryShire

CouncilUrandangie

CamoowealTownship

RichmondPost Office

BarcaldinePost Office

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Average annual temperature in the NWQ region has increased•


Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.9 °C by 2070, leading•


By 2070, Camooweal may have nearly 1.5 times the number of hot•

days over 35 °C (increasing from the average of 156 per year to anaverage of 229 per year by 2070) and Richmond may have over 1.5times the number of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of144 per year to an average of 224 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell by two per cent•

compared to the previous thirty years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, whichmakes it dif cult to detect any in uence of climate change atthis stage.





Extreme eventsMore intense and long-lived cyclones have a greater chance of•

impacting on inland regions such as in North West Queensland,

from the decay of cyclones into rain bearing depressions or thecyclones themselves tracking further inland.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe NWQ region has a semi-aridclimate with hot humid summersand dry warm winters.

Rainfall in the NWQ region ishighly seasonal and irregular,with most rain falling duringthe summer ‘wet’ season

(October–March) either asheavy thunderstorms or raindepressions fromdecayed cyclones.


(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

Importa nt indust riesof the reg ionThe NWQ region supports grazing,tourism and mining industries.The Mt Isa area is worldrenowned for mining andminerals processing.

About 28 per cent of the world’sknown lead and zinc reserves, ve per cent of the world’s silverresources, 1.5 per cent of theworld’s copper reserves andmajor phosphate depositsoccur in the region.

Mt Isa (25 000) is the majorbusiness and service hub forthe North West.

(Extracted from the North WestQueensland Regional Plan)



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were aggregated across the NWQ region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.





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The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over timeis represented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greater inthe summer, with the average over the lastdecade increasing by 1.1 °C, compared to the 1961–1990 average.

Tempera ture extremes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number ofdays exceeding 35 °C) are single events that usuallydo not extend past a couple of days. Due to thein uence of regional topography and prevailing winds,location-speci c data are required when consideringchanges in these extreme events over time.

Historical temperature records for Camooweal(Figure 2) and Richmond (Figure 3) shows that thesecentres experience a very large number of days of veryhot days annually where the maximum temperatureexceeds 35 °C. The number of days these conditionsare met are variable from year to year and there hasbeen no emerging trend for an increase over time.

N u

m b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the tempera tureexceeded 35 ° C for Camoowea l

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ° C.‘X’ denote s yea r for which the full data set is not ava ilab le

(i.e. the actual values may in fact be great er tha n whatis sho wn).


No observable change in number of days over35 ° C in Camoowea l

Current climate

Temperature (BoM, 2008)Historical temperature records indicate the averagetemperature in the NWQ region has risen, with thisincrease accelerating over the last decade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 25.2 °C inthe 30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a 0.1 °Cincrease on the 1961–1990 average. However, over thelast decade it has risen by a further 0.4 °C, suggestingan accelerated rise in temperature.

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

32.232.7

36.536.6

31.632.5

26.226.7

30313233343536

33343536373839

29303132333435

24252627282930

33343536373839

34.435.0

Figure 1: Historical annua l and s easona l maximumtemperatures for the North West Queensla ndregion for the period 1950–2007, compared to theba se period 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve yea r running a verag e.The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.


Average maximum temperature has risen in theNorth West Queensland region




Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors suchas topography and vegetation, and broader scaleweather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how thisnatural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns,long term rainfall records are required. The BoM hasbeen collecting rainfall data for the North WestQueensland region since 1897.

The variability in annual rainfall is shown in thetop graph in Figure 4. The graph shows that rainfallin recent years has been well within that expectedfrom natural variability.


N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 3: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 °C for Richmond

Blank spa ces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not e xceed 35 °C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ilable(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be great er than wha tis sho wn).


No observable change in number of da ys over35 ° C in Richmond

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

200400

600800

10001200

200400600800

1000

0

200

400

0

50

100

0

100

200

523471

(11%)

331290(14.2%)

10695(−10.1%)

3123(32.7%)

7255(32.8%)

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfa ll for the North West Queensla nd region for

the period 1897–2007The b lack line is a ve-year running average.The mea n for bot h th e ba se line 1961–1990 a ndthe las t deca de 1998–2007 are sh own by the g reen linesand indicat ed numerically a t the right of the graph.The difference in rainfall betw een th e ba seline a nd las tdeca de is show n in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.

Data source:BoM, 2008


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Averaged over the NWQ region, the annual mean

potential evaporation over the period 1971–2000(2775 mm) is over ve times the annual mean rainfallover the same period (534 mm) which contributes tothe depletion of soil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effectssuch as extreme waves combine to make the totalcyclone hazard. This hazard is greatest in Queenslandbetween January and March, but tropical cyclonesin Queensland can occur anytime over the periodfrom November to April.

While having little direct effect on the inland NorthWest Queensland region, tropical cyclone systemshave been associated with previous ooding in theregion through the weakening of such systems intosigni cant rain-bearing depressions. For example,peak ood levels in the Leichhardt River were thehighest in thirty to forty years as a result of tropicalcyclone Larry (15–21 March 2006) which crossed thecoast near Innisfail, hundreds of kilometres away.

Projected climate change inNorth Wes t Queens landGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the NWQ region have been extractedfrom this dataset for the Queensland Climate ChangeCentre of Excellence (QCCCE). The projectionspresented here are relative to the base period of1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference underthe low, medium and high emissions scenarios to2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate change projectionsfor NWQ region have been calculated on a mid-rangeemissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for North WestQueensland in 2030, 2050, and 2070 are described inTable 2. The numbers shown in brackets indicate therange of the results from the Global Climate Models.

Overview of climate projectionsIn summary, the changes to temperature and rainfallunder the three emissions scenarios are:

2030 (medium emiss ions s cenario)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annual mean

temperature (the average of all daily temperatureswithin a given year) is projected to increase by1.1 °C. There is little variation in projections acrossthe seasons.

Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by two per cent (-11 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of seven per cent(-5 mm) is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• :across all seasons the annual ‘best estimate’

increase is projected to be around three per cent(83 mm), with some models projecting up to a sixper cent increase in winter (29 mm).

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Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by two per cent (-11 mm)and three per cent (-16 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 13 per cent (-9 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : undera high emissions scenario an increase in annualpotential evaporation of up to nine per cent(250 mm) is projected with the best estimate beingsix per cent (167 mm). Winter is projected to havethe greatest increase of up to 12 per cent (59 mm).


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by three per cent (-16 mm)

and ve per cent (-26 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 20 per cent (-14 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario, annual potentialevaporation is projected to increase by as muchas 14 per cent (389 mm). Winter is projected tobe the season most impacted with increasesup to 19 per cent (93 mm) in some models.


in a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for two observing stations in the North WestQueensland with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Richmondthe number of hot days above 35 °C are projected toincrease from 144 day to 224 days. Under the samescenario for Camooweal, the number of hot dayswould increase from 156 days to 229 days.

CyclonesExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climatepatterns such as the ENSO, making it dif cultto predict their frequency of occurrence. This resultsin discrepancies in cyclone frequencies betweendifferent climate models .

More intense and long-lived cyclones have a greaterchance of impacting on inland regions such as NorthWest Queensland, from the decay of cyclones intorain bearing depressions or the cyclones themselvestracking further inland.

229193204183180156(205–257)(181–213)(185–224)(171–195)(168–190)

Camooweal

224185192174168144(195–254)(170–203)(175–216)(163–188)(160–182)

Richmond


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot da ys per year above 35 ° Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.

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Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 25.2 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.3[+0.9 to +1.8]

+ 2.1[+1.5 to +3.0]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 3.4[+2.3 to +4.9]

Summer 30.0 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.6]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +2.0]

+ 2.1[+1.3 to +3.2]

+ 1.8[+1.1 to +2.7]

+ 3.4[+2.1 to +5.2]

Autumn 25.2 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.6]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +1.9]

+ 2.1[+1.3 to +3.1]

+ 1.8[+1.1 to +2.6]

+ 3.4[+2.1 to +5.1]

Winter 18.8 °C + 1.0[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.2[+0.8 to +1.8]

+ 2.0[+1.3 to +3.0]

+ 1.7[+1.1 to +2.5]

+ 3.3[+2.1 to +4.8]

Spring 26.8 °C + 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.4[+1.0 to +1.9]

+ 2.3[+1.6 to +3.1]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.6]

+ 3.6[+2.5 to +5.1]

Rainfall

%

Annual 534 mm -2

[-11 to +8]

-2

[-13 to +9]

-3

[-21 to +15]

-3

[-18 to +12]

-5

[-31 to +24]Summer 332 mm 0

[-11 to +10]0

[-12 to +12]-1

[-20 to +19]-1

[-17 to +16]-1

[-30 to +31]

Autumn 108 mm -1[-17 to +17]

-1[-19 to +20]

-2[-30 to +33]

-1[-26 to +27]

-2[-44 to +53]

Winter 24 mm -5[-23 to +14]

-5[-25 to +17]

-9[-40 to +27]

-7[-35 to +23]

-14[-56 to +44]

Spring 71 mm -7[-24 to +8]

-8[-26 to +10]

-13[-41 to +16]

-11[-36 to +13]

-20[-57 to +25]


Annual 2775 mm + 3[+2 to +4]

+ 3[+1 to +6]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 5[+3 to +7]

+ 9[+6 to +14]

Summer 809 mm + 3

[+2 to +4]

+ 2

[+2 to +4]

+ 6

[+3 to +9]

+ 5

[+3 to +7]

+ 9

[+5 to +14]Autumn 631 mm + 3

[+2 to +5]+ 3

[+2 to +5]+ 6

[+3 to +11]+ 5

[+3 to +9]+ 10

[+5 to +17]

Winter 490 mm + 3[+1 to +6]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 6[+1 to +12]

+ 5[+1 to +10]

+ 10[+2 to +19]

Spring 839 mm + 3[+1 to +5]

+ 3[+1 to +6]

+ 5[+2 to +9]

+ 4[+2 to +8]

+ 9[+3 to +15]

Table 2. Summary of projections for North West Queens land *

* To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



Impa cts of clima te change on theNorth Wes t Queens land regionProjections for the North West Queensland regioninclude a decline in rainfall with increasingtemperature and evaporation, in conjunction withmore extreme climate events, such as cyclonicweather. The temperature projections for inaction onclimate change suggest a temperature increase welloutside the range of temperatures ever experiencedover the last 50 years. The projections for temperatureand number of hot days are all in the samedirection—increasing.

The management of the regions agriculture andindustry activities are likely to be adversely affectedby the projected increases in temperature andchanging rainfall patterns. Increasing temperaturescould affect communities dependent upon agricultureand tourism. Some examples of the challenges facingthe region are:

Changes to native ecosystems in the long-term•

could lead to the loss of populations and perhapsmore vulnerable species.

The potential changes to water ow regimes has•

implications for ecosystems that are dependent on ows and ooding, with fauna dependent on water

holes for maintenance of populations beingthreatened if in ow events become less frequent.Though the natural ecosystems of this region aregenerally well adapted to climate variability, there isalmost no capacity to arti cially modify ow regimesto reduce any adverse impacts of climate change.

Increased drought may result in changes in•

vegetation composition in grassland, savannah andwetland ecosystems, with more adapted species(including weeds) displacing less adapted species.

The communities in this region are exposed tothe impact of climate change, particularly thetemperature increases. Heat waves characterisedby extreme temperatures—high 30s or even 40s—persisting for a number of days, can result in

signi cant health impacts such as heat exhaustionand increased mortality among vulnerable sectorsof the community such as the very young or old.

Communities in North West Queensland are oftenexposed to these extremes on a regular basis andtherefore may be better able to adapt to theseconditions compared to communities that don’t havethis current exposure. However, if these extremesbecome more frequent and of longer duration, therewill be greater challenges and energy demands forcreating a comfortable environment in which to live.






References



Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2007, North WestQueensland Regional Development Plan, Department ofInfrastructure and Planning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/regional-planning/north-west-queensland.html >

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Climate change in theSouth East Queensland Region

This regional summary describesthe projected climate changefor the South East Queensland(SEQ) region.



New South Wales

SomersetRegionalCouncil

Scenic RimRegionalCouncil

SunshineCoast

RegionalCouncil

MoretonBay

Regional

Council

Ipswich City Council

Brisbane CityCouncil

GoldCoastCity

Council

LoganCity

Council

RedlandCity

CouncilLockyer Valley

RegionalCouncil

Amberley

Brisbane

TewantinPost Office

HarrisvillePost Office

UQ Gatton

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http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/climate-q-report 332/423ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandSEQ2


Average annual temperature in SEQ has increased 0.4• °Cover the last decade (from 19.4 °C to 19.8 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 4 °C by 2070; leading•

to annual temperatures well beyond those experienced overthe last 50 years.

By 2070, Amberley may have more than three times the number•

of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 12 per yearto 41 per year), Brisbane may have six times the number ofhot days (increasing from an average of one per year to an averageof six per year) and Tewantin may have nearly four times thenumber of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of threeper year to an average of 11 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly•

16 per cent compared with the previous 30 years. This is generallyconsistent with natural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect any in uence ofclimate change at this stage.





Extreme eventsThe 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by 44 cm•

at Wellington Point, 42 cm in Noosa and 35 cm at Surfers Paradiseif certain conditions eventuate. These conditions are a 30 cmsea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensity andfrequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards in cyclone tracks.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeSouth East Queenslandis home to the state’s capital,Brisbane, which has a sub-tropicalclimate. Rainfall in the regionis in uenced both by tropicalsystems from the north and uctuations in the high pressureridge to the south.

South East Queensland isAustralia’s fastest growing region.The population of SEQ is heavilyurbanised and is generallyconcentrated along the coastbetween Noosa and Coolangatta.The metropolitan areas of theBrisbane Statistical Division, GoldCoast and Sunshine Coast StatisticalDistricts account for 90 per centof the region’s population.

The SEQ Regional Plan identi esaround 80 per cent of the regionas Regional Landscape and RuralProduction Area. The coastlineof this region supports diversevalues and resources, includingbiodiversity, scenic amenity,outdoor recreation, economicactivities and cultural heritage.

DemographicsIn 2007, the region’s populationwas 2 922 832 and is projectedto increase beyond 4 100 000by 2026.

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)



http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/climate-q-report 333/423ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland SEQ3

Importa nt industriesof the reg ionTourism in SEQ contributes more

than $3.7 billion to Queensland’sgrowing economy and directlyemploys more than 61 000 people.The number of internationalvisitors is growing by almosteight per cent a year. Protectingthe ecologically rich wildernessand natural attractions of theregion is therefore animportant focus of sustainabletourism development.

Infrastructure needed tosupport the future developmentof the region has been identi edin order to manage future growthpatterns and inform theimplementation and review ofthe SEQ Infrastructure Plan andProgram. Across the region, waterand energy will continue to bea key focus of sustainablemanagement efforts.

The majority of the region’sagricultural area is used for beeffarming, with some dairy farminglocated on productive grazing land.The rich alluvial soils along thevalleys in the west and south of theregion—including the Brisbane,Lockyer, Fassifern and the Albert-Logan valleys—support a vast arrayof cropping industries. Closer to thecoast, horticultural and croppingindustries thrive in the Gold Coast,Redlands, Glass House Mountainsand Sunshine Coast districts.

A range of industry sectors arerepresented in the SEQ region,for example, manufacturing,aviation and aerospace,biotechnology, professional andbusiness services, informationand communications technology,food and agribusiness, tourism,marine, mining technologies,and pharmaceuticals.

(Extracted from the South EastQueensland Regional Plan)



were aggregated across the SEQ region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.







The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over time isrepresented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greater in thewinter, with the average over the last decadeincreasing by 1.3 °C averaged compared to the1961–1990 average.

Tempera ture extremes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uence ofregional topography, proximity to the ocean andprevailing winds, location-speci c data are requiredwhen considering changes in these extreme eventsover time.

Due to its inland location, Amberley (Figure 2)currently experiences more extreme temperaturedays than coastal Tewantin (Figure 3).

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Amberley

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ila ble(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be grea ter than wha tis sho wn).


The number of da ys over 35 ˚ C has risenin Amberley


temperature in the SEQ region has risen, with thisincrease accelerating over the last decade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 19.4 °C inthe 30 year period from 1971–2000, which is a 0.2 °Cincrease on the 1961–1990 average. However, over thelast decade it has risen by a further 0.4 °C, suggestingan accelerated rise in temperature.

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

24.625.6

28.629.5

24.926.0

19.721.0

25.226.2

2425262728

2728293031

24

25262728

1920212223

2425262728

Figure 1: Historical annua l and sea sona l maximumtemperatures for the South East Queensland regionfor the period 1950–2007, compared to the ba seperiod 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical scales may differ between graphs .


Average maximum temperature ha s risenin the South Eas t Queensland region



Figure 4 shows the dominant summer rainfall pattern,with a 1961–1990 average rainfall of around 440 mm,compared to an autumn average (the next mostdominant rainfall period) of around 320 mm.

Over the most recent decade, there has been a32 per cent decline in the average autumn rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. This appearsto be the most consistent downward trend observedover the last 100 years. Summer average rainfall hasonly declined by 16 per cent. However, there hasbeen a fairly consistent decrease since the 1980s,with only ve summers in this period above the1961–1990 average.

Although there is insuf cient evidence from theavailable records to categorically state there has beena rise in the number of extreme days at either location,there appears to be an increasing trend in Amberleysince the single year in the mid-1950s when more than25 days over 35 °C were experienced.

Rainfall (BoM, 2008)Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors such astopography and vegetation, and broader scale weatherpatterns, for example El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. To understand how this naturaltemporal variation changes rainfall patterns, long-termrainfall records are required. The BoM has beencollecting rainfall data for the South East Queenslandregion since 1897.

The variability in annual and seasonal rainfall isoutlined in Figure 4. The annual rainfall averagedover the last decade has decreased by 18 per centcompared to the 1961–1990 average. Since 1990,only three years have received rainfall greater thanthe 1961–1990 average. However, this situation alsooccurred at the beginning of the last century.

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1960 1970 1980 1990

Figure 3: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Tewantin

Blank spa ces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notava ilab le (i.e. the actua l values may in fact be great er thanwhat is shown).


No observable change in the number of days over35 ˚ C in Tewantin

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

500

1000

1500

200400600800

1000

0200

400600

800

0

200

400

100200300400500

1171956(−18.4%)

443370(−16.5%)

321218(−32.1%)

175147(−16%)

232220(−5.1%)

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfall for the South Eas t Queensland regionfor the period 1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.The difference in rainfall betwe en the bas eline and lastdeca de is show n in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.








Averaged over the SEQ region, the annual mean

potential evaporation over the period 1971–2000(1553 mm) is close to one and half times greater thanthe annual mean rainfall over the same period(1135 mm), which contributes to the depletion ofsoil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effects suchas extreme waves combine to make the total cyclonehazard. This hazard is greatest in Queenslandbetween January and March, but tropical cyclonesin Queensland can occur anytime over the periodfrom November to April.

Although the South East Queensland region isfurther south than the main area of tropical cyclone

development and occurrence, tropical cyclones stillhave an impact on the region (Figure 5), either fromthose that do track further southwards or the heavyrain and strong easterly winds through the regionthat accompany cyclones to the north.

There is a relationship between the impact ofcyclones on eastern Australia and the El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This relationshipis re ected in Figure 5 with very few cyclones in thelast three decades (in fact there were none in the lastdecade) compared to the La Niña dominant decadescommencing in the mid 1940s and mid 1960s. Thereis also a greater tendency for cyclones to track furthersouthward in La Niña dominant decades.

Projected climate change inSouth East Queensla ndGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the South East Queensland region have

been extracted from this dataset for the QueenslandClimate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE). Theprojections presented here are relative to the baseperiod of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference underthe low, medium and high emissions scenarios to2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate change projectionsfor South East Queensland have been presented ona mid-range emissions scenario.

However, the projections diverge at 2050 under

different emissions scenarios. Therefore, the 2050and 2070 projections are based on low and highemissions scenarios.

The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for the SEQ regionin 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described in Table 2.The numbers shown in brackets indicate the rangeof the results from the Global Climate Models.

N u m

b e r o

f c y c l o n e s

Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6


Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2

6 1 9 0 7

– 1 9 1 6

Figure 5: Tota l and overland number of tropica l

cyclones for the South East Queensland regionfor the period 1907–2006.Adapted from BoM, 2008.







Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by three per cent (-34 mm).The largest decrease of ve per cent is projected

for spring ( -11 mm) and winter (-7 mm).Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increase isprojected to be around 3 −4 per cent (47 −62 mm),with some models projecting up to a six per centincrease in autumn (20 mm) and winter (14 mm).

2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C and1.8 °C under the low and high emissions scenarios,respectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfallis projected to decrease by three per cent(-34 mm) and ve per cent (-57 mm) under thelow and high emissions scenarios respectively.The largest seasonal decrease of 10 per cent(-15 mm) is projected for winter under the highemissions scenario.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario an increase in annualpotential evaporation of up to 10 per cent (155 mm)is projected with the best estimate being six percent (93 mm). Autumn and winter are projectedto have the greatest increases of up to 12 per cent(40 mm and 29 mm respectively).

2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios )Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.5 °C and2.9 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by four per cent (-45 mm)and eight per cent (-91 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 15 per cent is projected for spring(-34 mm) and winter (-22 mm).

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : undera high emissions scenario, annual evaporationis projected to increase by as much as 16 per cent(248 mm). Autumn and winter are projected to bethe seasons most impacted with increases up to19 per cent (63 mm and 46 mm respectively) insome models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmospherewill increase the likelihood of record hightemperatures in a given region. The Global ClimateModels project a rise in extreme temperatures(CSIRO & BoM, 2007). Table 1 shows the projectednumber of days above 35 °C for three observationstations in the SEQ region with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Amberleythe number of hot days above 35 °C per year areprojected to increase from 12 to 41 days and fromone to six days in Brisbane. Under the same scenariofor Tewantin, hot days above 35 °C are projected toincrease from three to 11 days.

Table 1: Number of hot days per yea r above 35 ˚ Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)Current number of days calculated using a base period of

1971–2000.


1167543Tewantin(7–20)(5–8)(5–10)(4–6)(4–6)

633221(6–15)(2–4)(2–5)(2–3)(1–2)

Brisbane Aero

412326201812(28–65)(19–31)(20–36)(16–24)(15–21)

Amberley


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High



Cyclones and s ea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patterns

such as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepancies incyclone frequencies between different climate models.

Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency off theeast coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006).However, they also simulate an increase in thenumber of long-lived and severe (Category 3–5)eastern Australian tropical cyclones. Under threedifferent studies the number of severe tropicalcyclones is projected to increase by 56 per cent

by 2050 (Walsh et al, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050(Leslie et al, 2007) and 140 per cent by 2070respectively (Abbs et al, 2006).

Projected southward shifts in the primary regionsof cyclone development through the coming century(Abbs et al, 2006; Leslie et al, 2007) could resultin a greater cyclone impact in the SEQ region.With projected increases in the intensity of future

cyclones and projected rise in mean sea levels(CSIRO & BoM, 2007), storm surges will be ableto penetrate further inland greatly increasing therisk of damage to natural ecosystems, infrastructureand the risk of erosion in low-lying coastal regions.

The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projectedto increase by 44 cm at Wellington Point, 42 cmin Noosa and 35 cm at Surfers Paradise if certainconditions eventuate. These conditions are a 30 cmsea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase in cycloneintensity and frequency, as well as a 130 km shiftsouthwards in cyclone tracks (Hardy et al, 2004).


These rises in sea levels will have serious implicationsfor the coastal communities and ecological assetsof the South East Queensland region, ranging fromcontaminated fresh water aquifers through toregular inundation of the critical infrastructure.

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Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 19.4 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.1]

+ 2.9[+1.9 to +4.0]

Summer 23.9 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.7[+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.1]

+ 2.8[+1.9 to +4.0]

Autumn 20.1 °C + 0.8[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.0[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.7[+1.1 to +2.4]

+ 1.4[+0.9 to +2.0]

+ 2.7[+1.8 to +3.9]

Winter 14.0 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.2]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.1]

+ 2.8[+1.9 to +4.0]

Spring 19.6 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.7]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.8]

+ 1.6[+1.0 to +2.3]

+ 3.0[+1.9 to +4.5]

Rainfall%

Annual 1135 mm -3[-11 to +5]

-3[-12 to +6]

-5[-20 to +10]

-4[-17 to +9]

-8[-30 to +17]

Summer 431 mm 0[-10 to +9]

-1[-12 to +11]

-1[-19 to +18]

-1[-16 to +15]

-1[-28 to +29]

Autumn 317 mm -3[-14 to +10]

-3[-16 to +11]

-5[-25 to +19]

-4[-21 to +16]

-8[-37 to +30]

Winter 148 mm -5[-15 to +4]

-6[-17 to +5]

-10[-27 to +8]

-8[-23 to +7]

-15[-39 to +13]

Spring 227 mm -5[-15 to +6]

-6[-18 to +7]

-9[-28 to +11]

-8[-24 to +9]

-15[-41 to +17]

Potential

evaporation%

Annual 1553 mm + 3

[+2 to +5]

+ 3

[+2 to +5]

+ 6

[+4 to +10]

+ 5

[+3 to +8]

+ 10

[+6 to +16]Summer 522 mm + 3

[+2 to +5]+ 2

[+2 to +4]+ 6

[+3 to +11]+ 5

[+3 to +9]+ 10

[+5 to +17]

Autumn 334 mm + 4[+2 to +6]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 7[+4 to +12]

+ 6[+3 to +10]

+ 11[+6 to +19]

Winter 241 mm + 4[+2 to +6]

+ 4[+2 to +7]

+ 7[+4 to +12]

+ 6[+3 to +10]

+ 12[+6 to +19]

Spring 458 mm + 3[+2 to +4]

+ 3[+2 to +5]

+ 6[+3 to +9]

+ 5[+3 to +7]

+ 9[+5 to +14]

Table 2: Summary of projections for South East Queensland *

* To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



Increased temperature would allow species such•

as the Queensland fruit y and cattle tick to movesouthwards into areas from which they arecurrently excluded. This would affect interstate andinternational trade and, while damage from fruit ies is currently estimated at $28.5 million peryear, a southward spread in their population couldadd millions of dollars to this.

In contrast to the overall rainfall declines,•

more intense extreme storm events are expectedto cause increases in ooding impacts which couldaffect infrastructure such as water, sewerage,stormwater, transport and communications.The riskiest areas are those closest to the coastwhich can incur ash ooding, wind damage andconsiderable structural damage from falling trees,affecting industry, infrastructure and roads. Thiswill increase the cost of insurance to business andthe community.

The projected higher temperatures and more hot•

days above 35°C can result in signi cant healthimpacts like heat exhaustion and increasedmortality among vulnerable sectors of thecommunity, such as the very young or old. It maybe more dif cult for locations that have not typicallyexperienced these higher temperatures on a regularbasis to adapt to these conditions.

Electricity consumption is forecast to increase•

at approximately four per cent per year, and peaksummer demand also by four per cent per year(twice the rate of the other states), over the next10 years, as a result of the high growth rateexpected over the timeframe of the SEQInfrastructure Plan. Climate change will further addto the demand for air-conditioning and thesubsequent cost to the electricity network ofmeeting this peak seasonal demand (DIP, 2007).

Impa cts of clima te change on theSouth Eas t Queensla nd reg ionProjections for the SEQ region include a decline inrainfall, with increasing temperature and evaporation,in conjunction with more extreme climate events suchas sea-level rise and cyclonic weather.

The temperature projections for inaction on climatechange suggest a temperature increase well outsidethe range of temperatures ever experienced over thelast 50 years. The projections for temperature andnumber of hot days are all in the same direction—increasing. These climate change projections willpose many challenges for South East Queensland:


scenario, the predicted decline in rainfall(-10 per cent), increasing high temperatures(+1.8 °C) and an increase in evaporation(+7 per cent) could result in heat damage tohorticultural crops and challenges in supplyingsuf cient water to meet demand.

The rapid population growth of South East•

Queensland combined with the projectedreductions in rainfall will make ensuringthe long-term adequacy of water suppliesespecially challenging.

Warmer winters may reduce stone fruit yields,•

extreme temperatures may increase the stresson intensively managed livestock and overallconditions may become more favourable foran increase in plant diseases, weeds and pests.Lower rainfall and increasing evaporation will alsoresult in more frequent depletion of soil moisture,reduced ground cover and lower livestock stockcarrying capacity.

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References




Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2007, South EastQueensland Infrastructure Plan and Program, Department ofInfrastructure and Planning, Brisbane,

<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/SEQIPP/seqipp-full-document.pdf>DIP 2008, Queensland Future Populations: Appendix C (based on


DIP 2009, South East Queensland Regional Plan: 2009-2031,Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/regional-planning/draft-regional-plan-2009-2031.html>

Hardy T, Mason L, Astorquia A and Harper BA 2004, QueenslandClimate Change and Community Vulnerability to TropicalCyclones: Ocean Hazards Assessment Stage 2/3. Report to the

Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines,Brisbane,<http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AboutUs/Publications/ByType/Reports/ClimateChange/VulnerabilityToTropicalCyclones/index.html >





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Climate change in theSouth Wes t Queensland Reg ion

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate cha ngefor the South Wes t Queens land(SWQ) reg ion.



New South Wales

BullooShire

Council

QuilpieShire

Council

ParooShire

Council

MurwehShire

CouncilCharleville Aero

ThargomindahPost Office

CunnamullaPost Office

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http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/climate-q-report 344/423ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandSWQ2


Average annual temperature in the SWQ region has increased•

by 0.8 °C over the last decade (from 21.6 °C to 22.4 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 5.2 °C by 2070, leading•


By 2070, Charleville may have over twice the number of days•

over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 64 per year, to 130 peryear by 2070) and Thargomindah may have more than 1.5 timesthe number of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of91 per year, to an average 147 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly 16 per cent•

compared to the previous 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last 110 years ,which makes it dif cult to detect any in uence of climatechange at this stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an annual•

increase of 20 per cent to a decrease of 38 per cent by 2070.The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows adecrease under all emissions scenarios.



Extreme eventsMore intense and long-lived cyclones have a greater chance•

of impacting on inland regions such as in SWQ, from the decayof cyclones into rain-bearing depressions, or the cyclonesthemselves tracking further inland.

A regional pro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe SWQ region, one of the mostremote areas in the state, hasa semi-arid to arid climate, withsummers being very hot whilewinters are generally warm anddry. Rainfall in the region is highlyseasonal and irregular, with mostrain falling during the summer(October–March) either as heavythunderstorms or rain depressions.

DemographicsIn 2007, the region’s populationwas 8 172, and is projected todecline marginally to around8 160 by 2026.(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

Importa nt indust riesof the reg ion

Major economic activities includeoil, gas and gemstone (opal)extraction, beef, sheep and gamemeat processing, small areas ofwheat cropping, and irrigated cropsof dates, grapes and organic wheat(Warrego River system).

Approximately 30 per cent of theregion’s population is employedin the agriculture, forestry and shing industries. Pastoralproduction contributes as much as$162 million per annum.

Tourism and the retail tradeare also major contributors toemployment in the rural centres.Possible future industries arebased on natural gas exportand power generation.

Charleville (3 500) is the majorbusiness and service hub for SouthWest Queensland.

(Extracted from the Draft SouthWest Queensland Regional Plan)

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http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/climate-q-report 345/423ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland SWQ3


MethodHistorical climate da taHistorical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)were aggregated across the SWQ region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.


To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland, climate change projections were developed using theIPCC low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapid

shift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B)scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. Thehigh (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.



Current climateTemperature (BoM, 2008)Historical temperature records indicate the average temperature inthe SWQ region has risen, with this increase accelerating over the lastdecade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 21.6 °Cin the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a 0.1 °C increase onthe 1961–1990 average. However, over the last decade it has risenby a further 0.8 °C, suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature.

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Tempera ture ext remes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uence

of regional topography and prevailing winds, location-speci c data are required when considering changesin these extreme events over time.

Historical temperature records for Charleville (Figure 2)suggest that there has been a very slight increase,since the late 1970s in the number of days each yearwhere the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C.No similar increase has been detected forThargomindah (Figure 3).

The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over timeis represented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greaterin the autumn with the average over the last decadeincreasing 1.3 °C, compared to the 1961–1990 average.

27282930313233

3233343536373839

2526272829303132

19202122232425

2728293031323334

28.529.6

35.8

36.8

28.129.4

20.321.2

29.930.9

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

Figure 1: Historical annual and sea sonal maximumtemperatures for the South West Queensla nd regionfor the period 1950–2007, compared to the bas eperiod 1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.

The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical scales may differ between graphs


Average maximum temperature has risen in theSouth West Queensla nd region

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Charleville

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ila ble(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be grea ter than wha tis sho wn).


The number of da ys over 35 ˚

C has risen slightlyin Charleville





Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors suchas topography and vegetation, and broader scaleweather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how thisnatural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns,long-term rainfall records are required. The BoM hasbeen collecting rainfall data for the SWQ regionsince 1897.

The variability in annual rainfall is shown in the topgraph in Figure 4. The dominant wet period of the

1950s and 1970s contrasts with the dry years that havebeen experienced for most of the last decade.

Figure 4 shows the dominant summer rainfall patternwith a 1961–1990 average rainfall around 140 mm,compared to the autumn average (the next mostdominant rainfall period) of around 100 mm.

Over the most recent decade, there has been a30 per cent decline in the average autumn rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. This change in theautumn rainfall is the major contributor to the overall9 per cent decline in the annual rainfall for the regionover the last decade (1998–2007).

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

352322(−8.8%)

137121(−11.7%)

10271(−30.4%)

5553(2.5%)

7461(21.4%)

200

400

600

800

0

200

400

0

100

200

300

0

100

200

0

100

200

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfall for the S outh West Queensland region forthe period 1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve yea r running a verag e.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.The difference in rainfall betw een th e ba seline a nd las tdeca de is show n in per cent.Note: Vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.



N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 3: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Tha rgominda h

Blank spa ces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ilable(i.e. the actua l values may in fact be great er than wha tis sho wn).


There is no observable increas e in the numberof da ys over 35 ˚ C in Tha rgominda h

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Evaporation

Potential evaporation is a measure of the evaporative(or drying) power of the atmosphere. The potentialevaporation rate assumes that there is an unlimitedsupply of water to evaporate (either from the soil orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporationcan differ from actual evaporation, a change inpotential evaporation gives a good indication of thechange in the evaporative power of the atmosphere.


Averaged over the SWQ region, the annual mean

potential evaporation over the period 1971–2000(2588 mm) is nearly seven times larger than theannual mean rainfall over the same period (383 mm),which contributes to the depletion of soil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effectssuch as extreme waves combine to make the totalcyclone hazard. This hazard is greatest in Queenslandbetween January and March, but tropical cyclonesin Queensland can occur anytime over the period

from November to April.While having little direct effect on the inland SouthWest Queensland region, tropical cyclone systemscan be associated with ooding in inland regionsthrough the weakening of such systems intosigni cant rain-bearing depressions.

After the decay of tropical cyclone Ita (23–24 February1997) into a rain-bearing depression, ooding wasrecorded in the Warrego River in Charleville, with ood gauges reading 7.39 m—which is greater thanthe major ood level for the town (6.0 m). There wassigni cant damage to houses, businesses, roads andbridges as a result of this ooding.

Projected clima te chang ein South Wes t Queens landGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently considered tobe the best tools for projecting climate change. CSIROhas recently released climate change projections forAustralia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) based on the resultsfrom 23 Global Climate Models. Projections for theSWQ region have been extracted from this dataset forthe Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence(QCCCE). The projections presented here are relative tothe base period of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference underthe high, medium and low emissions scenarios to2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate change projectionsfor the SWQ region have been presented on a mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for the SWQ regionin 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described in Table 2.The numbers shown in brackets indicate the rangeof the results from the Global Climate Models.

Overview of climate projectionsIn summary, the changes to temperature and rainfallunder the three emissions scenarios are:

2030 (medium emiss ions s cenario)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annual meantemperature (the average of all daily temperatures

within a given year) is projected to increase by1.1 °C. There is little variation in projections acrossthe seasons.

Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by three per cent (-11 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of seven per cent(-5 mm) is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potential evaporat ion• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increase isprojected to be around 2–3 per cent (52–78 mm),

with some models projecting up to a seven percent increase in winter (21 mm). P

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2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.4 °C and2.2 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by four per cent (-15 mm)and six per cent (-23 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 14 per cent (-11 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario an increase inannual potential evaporation of up to nine per cent(233 mm) is projected with the best estimate being ve per cent (129 mm). Winter is projected to havethe greatest increase of up to 14 per cent (43 mm).


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by ve per cent (-19 mm)

and 10 per cent (-38 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 21 per cent (-16 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario, annualevaporation is projected to increase by as muchas 15 per cent (388 mm). Winter is projected tobe the season most impacted with increasesup to 22 per cent (67 mm) in some models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmospherewill increase the likelihood of a record high

temperature in a given region. The Global ClimateModels project a rise in extreme temperatures(CSIRO & BoM, 2007). Table 1 shows the projectednumber of days above 35 °C for two observing stationsin SWQ with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 forCharleville, the number of hot days above 35 °Cis projected to increase from 64 days to 130 days.Under the same scenario for Thargomindah, thenumber of hot days would increase from 91 days to147 days.

CyclonesExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patternssuch as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepanciesin cyclone frequencies between differentclimate models .

More intense and long-lived cyclones have a greaterchance of impacting on inland regions such as inthe SWQ region, from the decay of cyclones intorain-bearing depressions or the cyclones themselvestracking further inland.

14712012611210891(127–172)(109–135)(113–142)(104–123)(101–117)

Thargomindah

13099106898464(107–162)(85–116)(90–126)(80–103)(77–95)

Charleville


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High


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Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 21.6 °C + 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.4[+0.9 to +2.0]

+ 2.2[+1.5 to +3.2]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.7]

+ 3.6[+2.4 to +5.2]

Summer 29.1 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.7]

+ 1.4[+0.9 to +2.1]

+ 2.3[+1.4 to +3.5]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.9]

+ 3.7[+2.3 to +5.6]

Autumn 21.7 °C + 1.1[+0.7 to +1.7]

+ 1.3[+0.8 to +2.0]

+ 2.2[+1.3 to +3.4]

+ 1.8[+1.1 to +2.8]

+ 3.5[+2.2 to +5.4]

Winter 13.6 °C + 1.0[+0.6 to +1.5]

+ 1.2[+0.8 to +1.8]

+ 2.0[+1.3 to +3.0]

+ 1.7[+1.1 to +2.5]

+ 3.2[+2.1 to +4.9]

Spring 22.4 °C + 1.2[+0.8 to +1.8]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.1]

+ 2.4[+1.6 to +3.5]

+ 2.0[+1.4 to +2.9]

+ 3.9[+2.6 to +5.6]

Rainfall

%

Annual 383 mm -3[-14 to +7]

-4[-16 to +8]

-6[-25 to +13]

-5[-22 to +11]

-10[-38 to +20]

Summer 153 mm -1[-13 to +12]

-1[-15 to +14]

-2[-25 to +24]

-1[-21 to +20]

-3[-36 to +38]

Autumn 97 mm -3[-19 to +13]

-3[-21 to +15]

-5[-33 to +25]

-4[-29 to +21]

-8[-48 to +40]

Winter 56 mm -6[-21 to +8]

-7[-23 to +9]

-11[-36 to +15]

-9[-31 to +13]

-17[-52 to +24]

Spring 77 mm -7[-22 to +7]

-9[-25 to +8]

-14[-39 to +13]

-12[-34 to +11]

-21[-55 to +21]


Annual 2588 mm + 3[+1 to +5]

+ 2[-1 to +5]

+ 5[+2 to +9]

+ 4[+2 to +8]

+ 8[+3 to +15]

Summer 972 mm + 3[+1 to +5]

+ 1[+1 to +3]

+ 5[+2 to +10]

+ 4[+1 to +8]

+ 8[+3 to +15]

Autumn 572 mm + 3[+1 to +6]

+ 3[+1 to +6]

+ 7[+2 to +12]

+ 5[+2 to +10]

+ 10[+4 to +19]

Winter 304 mm + 3[0 to +7]

+ 4[+1 to +7]

+ 7[+1 to +14]

+ 6[+1 to +12]

+ 11[+1 to +22]

Spring 740 mm + 2[0 to +4]

+ 2[-1 to +5]

+ 4[-1 to +9]

+ 3[-1 to +7]

+ 6[-1 to +14]

Table 2. Summary of projections for South West Queensla nd** To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



Impa cts of clima te changeon the South Wes t Queens landregionIncreasing temperatures and evaporation,more prolonged drought combined with periodicextreme ow events are projected to be the mainclimate change impacts in South West Queensland.The temperature projections for inaction on climatechange suggest a temperature increase well outsidethe range of temperatures ever experienced overthe last 50 years. The projections for temperatureand number of hot days are all in the samedirection—increasing.

In 2007 a sustainable yields study on water availabilityin the Warrego (the eastern part of the SWQ region)was undertaken by the CSIRO. It was found thatclimate change could signi cantly change rainfall andrunoff; however, the extent of change by 2030 isuncertain. The sustainable yields study presented therange of projections for both low and high emissionsscenarios for 2030. Under these scenarios, meanannual rainfall could fall by up to eight per cent orincrease by up to 11 per cent, respectively. Given thesechanges in rainfall, the mean annual runoff could fallby up to 25 per cent or increase by up to 46 per cent(CSIRO, 2007).

As less than two per cent of the rain that falls in theWarrego portion of the Murray Darling Basin currentlyends up as runoff, and as stream ow mostly occurs as

large infrequent oods, an increase in runoff of nearly50 per cent could have very large ooding impacts.In contrast, a decrease of nearly 25 per cent will havelarge negative impact on ows in the major rivers.

In the rangelands ecosystems more frequent andsevere droughts would be detrimental to groundcoverand possibly grassland composition. Increased deepsoil cracking with more frequent or intense droughtsmay particularly affect perennial grasses. The lowermoisture regime and higher CO 2 is likely to reducethe quantity and quality of pasture resulting in lowercarrying capacities, animal production andenterprise viability.

Communities themselves are also exposed to theimpact of climate change, particularly the temperatureincreases. Heatwaves characterised by extremetemperatures—high 30s or even 40s—persistingfor a number of days, can result in signi cant healthimpacts such as heat exhaustion and increasedmortality among vulnerable sectors of the communitysuch as the very young or old.

Communities in South West Queensland are oftenexposed to these extremes on a regular basis, andtherefore may be better able to adapt to theseconditions compared to communities that don’t havethis current exposure. However, if these extremesbecome more frequent and of longer duration, therewill be greater challenges and energy demands forcreating a comfortable environment in which to live.

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References


Commonwealth Scienti c and Industrial Research Organisation( CSIRO ) and BoM 2007, Climate change in Australia: TechnicalReport 2007, CSIRO, Melbourne,<www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au>

CSIRO 2007, Water availability in the Warrego, report to theAustralian Government for the CSIRO Murray-Darling BasinSustainable Yields Project, Commonwealth Scienti c andIndustrial Research Organisation, Canberra,<www.clw.csiro.au/publications/waterforahealthycountry/mdbsy/pdf/Warrego-Report.pdf>

Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2007, Draft SouthWest Queensland Regional Plan, Department of Infrastructureand Planning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/south-west/draft-s-w-plan.pdf>



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Climate change in theTownsville-Thuringowa Region

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate change forthe Townsville-Thuringowa(TT) region.



Charters TowersRegional Council

TownsvilleCity

Council

HinchinbrookShire

Council

BurdekinShire

Council

Townsville Aero

Charters Towers Airport

KalamiaEstate

MacknadeSugar Mill

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Average annual temperature in the TT region has increased•by 0.2 °C over the last decade (from 23.3 °C to 23.5 °C).


By 2070, Townsville may have ten times the number of hot days•over 35 °C (increasing from an average of four per year to anaverage of 40 per year by 2070) and Charters Towers may havemore than double (increasing from an average of 50 per yearto an average of 136 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell more than four•per cent compared with the previous 30 years. This is generallyconsistent with natural variability experienced over the last110 years, which makes it dif cult to detect any in uence ofclimate change at this stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall impacts from an•annual increase of 19 per cent to a decrease of 32 per cent by 2070.A decrease in rainfall is projected by the majority of models underall emissions scenarios.


Extreme eventsThe 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by 34 cm•in Townsville if certain conditions eventuate. These conditions area 30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensityand frequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards in cyclonetracks.

A regiona lpro le

Climate and landscapeThe region’s tropical climate ischaracterised by relatively hightemperatures throughout theyear and pronounced wet anddry seasons and high intensitytropical storms.

High summer temperaturesgenerally peak in January andare usually accompanied by highhumidity levels. Rainfall occurspredominantly between Novemberand April mainly in the form ofshort duration, high intensitytropical storms which cancause ooding.

The region is occasionallyaffected by cyclones, ooding,storm surges and wind damage,all of which need to be consideredin planning for the region.

Diversity of landforms andnatural environments dominateand include three stronglydifferentiated regions, theBrigalow Belt in the south, theEinasleigh Uplands in the westand the Wet Tropics in the north.

A third of the region is composedof mountainous and hilly areas.The entire length of the region isbounded by the coast line, whichcomprises beaches, beach ridges,mangrove estuaries, saltpans andcoastal swamps.


The region has been inhabited bythe Australian Indigenous peoplefor at least 40 000 years.(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

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Importa nt industriesof the reg ionThe marine environment is also

of great signi cance, as the regionis partly within and adjoins theGreat Barrier Reef World HeritageArea, the Great Barrier Reef MarinePark and the Queensland StateMarine Park.

The main natural resourcesare sheries and mining resourceswhich make a substantialcontribution to the regionaleconomy. The mining sector has

always played a signi cant role inthe region’s economicdevelopment; for example,Townsville City Shireis the main service centre for themining activities in its extensivehinterland, which includes thenorth-west minerals provincearound Mount Isa.

These advantages in locationhave resulted in the establishment

of major downstream processingindustries in the region includinga copper re nery and nickel smelter.

(Extracted from the Townsville-Thuringowa Regional Plan)

Unders ta nding the clima teand how it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climatechange will lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assessthe risk of human-induced climate change requires an understandingof the current climate using historical data and future climatescenarios. These future scenarios are prepared using data fromGlobal Climate Models.

MethodHistorical climate da taHistorical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)were aggregated across the TT region. The uctuations and trends inthe observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.


To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland, climate change projections were developed using theIPCC low (B1) medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapidshift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B)scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. Thehigh (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.



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The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over time isrepresented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is muchgreater in the autumn, with the average over thelast decade increasing by 0.9 °C, compared tothe 1961–1990 average.

Tempera ture ext remes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uence ofregional topography, proximity to the ocean andprevailing winds, location-speci c data are requiredwhen considering changes in these extreme eventsover time.

While there is no observable increase in the number ofdays where the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °Cfor Charters Towers (Figure 2), the historical recordsindicate a slight increase in the number of hot days forTownsville since the 1970s (Figure 3). Due to its inlandlocation, Charters Towers currently experiences moreextreme temperature days than coastal Townsville.

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Charters Towers

Blank spa ces are thos e years whe re the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ° C.‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notava ilable (i.e. the a ctual values may in fact be greate r thanwhat is shown).

Data source: BoM, 2008, 2008

There is no observable increase in the number ofda ys over 35 °C for Charters Towers

Current climate

Temperature (BoM, 2008)Historical temperature records indicate the average

temperature in the TT region has risen, with thisincrease accelerating over the last decade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 23.3 °Cin the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a0.1 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. However,over the last decade it has risen by a further 0.2 °C,suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature.

2829303132

3132333435

2728293031

2324252627

2930313233

29.229.6

32.732.9

28.729.6

24.324.8

30.831.2

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

Figure 1: Historical maximum, temperature for theTownsville-Thuringowa region for the period1950–2007, compared to the bas e period1961–1990

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both the ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.


Average maximum temperature ha s risenin Townsville-Thuringowa region








Averaged over the Townsville-Thuringowa region, the

annual mean potential evaporation over the period1971–2000 (2025 mm) is over twice the annual meanrainfall over the same period (813 mm), whichcontributes to the depletion of soil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effects suchas extreme waves combine to make the total cyclonehazard. This hazard is greatest in Queensland between January and March, but tropical cyclones inQueensland can occur anytime over the period fromNovember to April.

The TT region is often exposed to the risk of cycloneswith at least one cyclone a decade being detected inthe region since the early 1900s (Figure 5).

In some areas of Queensland, there is a relationshipbetween the impact of cyclones on eastern Australiaand the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)phenomenon. However, this pattern is not evidentfor the TT region (Figure 5).

Projected climate change inTowns ville-ThuringowaGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) based

on the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the TT region have been extracted fromthis dataset for the Queensland Climate Change Centreof Excellence (QCCCE). The projections presented hereare relative to the base period of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little differenceunder the low, medium and high emissions scenariosto 2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate changeprojections for Townsville-Thuringowa havebeen presented on a mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for Townsville-Thuringowa in 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described inTable 2. The numbers shown in brackets indicate therange of the results from the Global Climate Models.


In summary, the changes to temperature and rainfallunder the three emissions scenarios are:

2030 (medium emiss ions s cenario)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annual meantemperature (average of all daily temperatureswithin a given year) is projectedto increase by 0.9 °C. There is little variationin projections across the seasons.

Annual and s eas onal rainfall• : annual rainfall ( thetotal rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by two per cent (-16 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of seven per cent(-8 mm) is projected for spring.

N u m

b e r o

f c y c l o n e s

Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6


Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2 6

1 9 0 7 – 1 9 1

6


cyclones for the Townsville-Thuringowa Region forthe period 1907– 2006Adapted from BoM, 2008

El Niño and La Niña weather pa tterns a cross theTownsville-Thuringowa region



Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increase isprojected to be around 3–4 per cent (61–81 mm),with some models projecting up to a six per centincrease in winter (21 mm) and autumn (27 mm).

2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C and1.9 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projectionsacross the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by three per cent (-24 mm)and ve per cent (-41 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largest

seasonal decrease of 13 per cent (-14 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario an increasein annual potential evaporation of up to nine percent (182 mm) is projected with the best estimatebeing seven per cent (142 mm). Autumn, winterand summer are projected to have the greatestincreases of up to 11 per cent (50 mm, 38 mmand 67 mm respectively).

2070 (low a nd high emiss ions scena rios )Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.6 °Cand 3.0 °C under the low and high emissionsscenarios respectively. There is little variationin projections across the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by four per cent (-33 mm)and seven per cent (-57 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 20 per cent (-22 mm) is projectedfor spring.Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• :under a high emissions scenario, annualevaporation is projected to increase by as muchas 15 per cent (304 mm). Autumn and winter areprojected to be the seasons most impacted withincreases up to 18 per cent (81 mm and 63 mmrespectively) in some models.


in a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for two observing stations in the Townsville-Thuringowa region with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 forCharters Towers the number of hot days above 35 °Care projected to more than double from 50 days to136 days. Under the same scenario for Townsville,the number of hot days would increase ten-fold,from four days to 40 days.

401216874(19–91)(7–21)(9–31)(6–13)(6–9)

Townsville

1368998797450(104–169)(77–109)(81–124)(68–91)(65–84)

Charters Towers


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot da ys per year above 35 ° Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low and high emiss ions scena rios)

Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.

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Cyclones and s ea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate

patterns such as the ENSO, making it dif cult topredict their frequency of occurrence. This resultsin discrepancies in cyclone frequencies betweendifferent climate models.

Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency off theeast coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006).However, they also simulate an increase in thenumber of long-lived and severe (Category 3–5)eastern Australian tropical cyclones. Under threedifferent studies the number of severe tropical

cyclones is projected to increase by 56 per centby 2050 (Walsh et al, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050(Leslie et al, 2007) and 140 per cent by 2070(Abbs et al, 2006).

Projected southward shifts in the primary regionsof cyclone development through the coming century(Abbs et al, 2006, Leslie et al, 2007) could result in agreater cyclone impact in the TT Region. With changes

in the intensity of future cyclones and projected risein mean sea levels (CSIRO & BoM, 2007), storm surgeswill be able to penetrate further inland greatlycontributing to damage to natural ecosystems(e.g. Great Barrier Reef) and infrastructure and the riskof erosion in low-lying coastal regions.

The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projectedto increase by 34 cm in Townsville if certain conditionseventuate. These conditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise,a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensity andfrequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards incyclone tracks (Hardy et al, 2004).


These rises in sea levels will have serious implicationsfor the coastal communities and ecological assetsof the Townsville-Thuringowa region, rangingfrom contaminated fresh water aquifers throughto regular inundation of critical infrastructure.

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Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Current

historicalmean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 23.3 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.6]

+ 1.6[+1.1 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.1 to +4.2]

Summer 27.3 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2[+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.7]

+ 1.6[+1.0 to +2.3]

+ 3.0[+2.0 to +4.4]

Autumn 23.5 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.7]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.0 to +4.3]

Winter 18.1 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to+1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.6]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.0 to +4.3]

Spring 24.4 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to 1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.6]

+ 1.6[+1.1 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.1 to +4.2]

Rainfall%

Annual 813 mm -2[-12 to +6] -3[-13 to +7] -5[-21 to +12] -4[-18 to +10] -7[-32 to +19]

Summer 441 mm -2[-12 to +8]

-2[-13 to +10]

-3[-21 to +16]

-3[-18 to +13]

-5[-32 to +25]

Autumn 209 mm -3[-17 to +12]

-3[-19 to +14]

-5[-31 to +23]

-4[-26 to +19]

-8[-44 to +37]

Winter 51 mm -2[-17 to +12]

-3[-19 to +15]

-4[-31 to +24]

-4[-27 to +20]

-7[-45 to +39]

Spring 109 mm -7[-21 to +6]

-8[-23 to +7]

-13[-37 to +12]

-11[-32 to +10]

-20[-52 to +19]

Potentialevaporation

%

Annual 2025 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 4[+2 to +5]

+ 7[+4 to +9]

+ 5[+4 to +8]

+ 11[+7 to +15]

Summer 608 mm + 3[+2 to +5] + 3[+2 to +4] + 6[+3 to +11] + 5[+3 to +9] + 10[+5 to +17]

Autumn 450 mm + 4[+2 to +6]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 7[+4 to +11]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 12[+7 to +18]

Winter 348 mm + 4[+2 to +6]

+5[+3 to +7]

+ 7[+4 to +11]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 12[+7 to +18]

Spring 617 mm + 3[+2 to +4]

+ 4[+2 to +5]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 5[+3 to +7]

+ 9[+6 to +14]

Table 2. Summary of projections for the Townsville-Thuringowa region** To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.)



Heatwaves characterised by extreme•temperatures—high 30s or even 40s—persistingfor a number of days, can result in signi canthealth impacts such as heat exhaustion andincreased mortality among vulnerable sectorsof the community such as the very young or old.It may be more dif cult for locations that have nottypically experienced these extremes on a regularbasis to adapt to these conditions.

Tropical diseases such as the Ross River virus are•also expected to increase under climate change.Changes in rainfall, high tides and maximumtemperatures have all been shown to be keydeterminants of Ross River virus transmission (Tonget al, 2004). For another example, the number ofcases of dengue fever in Australia is projected toincrease from 310 000 in 2000, to 540 000 by2030 under the high global emissionsmitigation scenario.

Higher temperatures are likely to exacerbate•existing problems of poor pasture quality.In addition, increased thermal stress of animalsis very likely, particularly away from the coastline,and can reduce animal production, reproductiveperformance and enhance mortality.

Tropical weeds may increase in abundance•and distribution. Less rainfall and increasingevaporation will also deplete soil moisture, groundcover and stock carrying capacity. Overall it is likelythat pastures may decline in quality, causing loweranimal production.

The Townsville City Council has recently responded tothe potential climate change risks by commissioningthe CSIRO to prepare a report (CSIRO, 2008) onclimate change projections for Townsville, addressinga range of climate variables. The report identi ed thatin addition to extreme events such as cyclones andsea-level rise, droughts are likely to be more frequentand affect larger areas, and the frequency of extreme re-weather conditions is likely to increase.

Impa cts of clima te chang e onthe Townsville-Thuring owa regionProjections for the TT region include a decline inrainfall with increasing temperature and evaporation,in conjunction with more extreme climate events,such as cyclonic weather and a rise in sea levels.The temperature projections for inaction on climatechange suggest a temperature increase well outsidethe range of temperatures ever experienced over thelast 50 years. The projections for temperature andhot days are all in the same direction—increasing.

Climate change is likely to pose challenges for theTT region, particularly in relation to the management ofthe region’s agricultural, horticulture andtourism activities:

Increased temperatures are likely to cause more•regular coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef.These bleaching events are very likely to becomemore severe as temperatures increase and suchevents could occur annually by 2050. As aconsequence of this, the Great Barrier Reef isvery unlikely to survive in its present form. Thedegradation of the reef will not only be a loss ofgreat intrinsic value, it will also come at a greatcost to the tourism industry (NRM, 2004).

In addition, the increasing concentration of carbon•dioxide is causing increased acidi cation of seawater which, in turn, impacts the coral formation(De’ath et al, 2009). This adds a further dimensionto the Great Barrier Reef’s vulnerability to climatechange.

Higher mean sea levels will enable inundation•and waves resulting from storm surges to penetratefurther inland, increasing ooding, erosion anddamage to infrastructure and natural ecosystems.

People will also be affected, as the rate of heat-•related health problems increases and increasedexposure to catastrophic events, such as cyclonesand ooding endanger lives and property.

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References




CSIRO 2008, Climate change projections for the Townsville region.Report prepared for the Townsville City Council, Commonwealth

Scienti

c and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra,<http://www.seao2.com/climatechangeintownsville/report.html>

Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2000, Townsville-Thuringowa Regional Plan, Department of Infrastructure andPlanning, Brisbane,<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/regional-planning/townsville-thuringowa.html>


Department o f Nat ural Resources a nd Mines 2004, Climate Change:

the Challenge for Natural Resource Management, Department ofNatural Resources and Mines, Brisbane,<http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AboutUs/Publications/ByType/Reports/ClimateChange/ChallengeForNaturalResourceManagement/Booklet_HighQuality.pdf>








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Climate change in theWhitsunday, Hinterland and Mackay Region

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate cha ngefor the Whitsunday, Hinterlandand Mackay (WHM) region.



IsaacRegionalCouncil

WhitsundayRegionalCouncil

MackayRegionalCouncil Mackay

M.O

KalamiaEstate


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Average annual temperature in the WHM region has increased•


Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.2 °C by 2070,•

leading to annual temperatures well beyond those experiencedover the last 50 years.

By 2070, Mackay may have 12 times the number of days over 35 °C•

(increasing from an average of one per year to an average of 12 peryear by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly 14 per cent

•

compared with the previous 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, whichmakes it dif cult to detect any in uence of climate change atthis stage.

Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an annual•

increase of 17 per cent to a decrease of 35 per cent by 2070.The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows adecrease under all emissions scenarios.



Extreme eventsThe 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by•

36 cm in Mackay and 31 cm at Airlie Beach if certain conditionseventuate. These conditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise,a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensity and frequency, as well asa 130 km shift southwards in cyclone tracks.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe WHM region is locatedon the coast and Hinterlandmidway between Brisbane andCairns. The Mackay area hasa tropical climate.

Summers are generally hotand wet, while the coast has

the bene t of regular afternoonsea breezes. The cyclone seasonfor the region is from Decemberthrough to April. Mackay has17 thunder days per year onaverage with the majority ofthese occurring from late springthrough to early autumn.

Fog occurs on average nine timeseach year. Maximum temperatureshave reached the high 30s and

minimum temperatures havedropped to less than 4 °C. Winterdays are generally warm andsunny, while winter nights canbe cool away from the coast.

DemographicsThe majority of the populationlives along the coastal plainbetween Bowen and Sarina.The highest growth areas are

Mackay city and the shiresof Whitsunday and Sarina.

In 2007, the region’s populationwas 163 060 and is projected toincrease beyond 244 000 by 2026.

(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

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MethodHistorical climate da taHistorical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)were aggregated across the WHM region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.


To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change onQueensland, climate change projections were developed using the

IPCC low (B1) medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapidshift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B)scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. Thehigh (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels.



Importa nt industriesof the reg ionThe recent major expansion of the

coal mining industry in Hinterlandareas of the region has becomea catalyst for rapid populationgrowth to meet this expansion.The region supplies around85 per cent of the state’s totalvolume of coal production.

The region’s growth has translatedinto strong international exports,primarily in coal. It is nowQueensland’s leading export

region with $A8.7 billion ofexports in 2004–05.

Mackay City, one of the state’slargest and most liveable urbancentres, is the region’s economichub. Mackay is also focalin servicing the region’smining industry.

The WHM is one of the wealthiestareas in Queensland. The well

established sugar and agriculturalindustries and resources-basedeconomy provide a strongfoundation for regional industryexpansion, particularly within thegrowing marine sector.

The region is also an internationaltourism destination; home tothe idyllic Whitsunday islandsand the planet’s largest livingentity, the World Heritage-listed

Great Barrier Reef.Planned investment andexpansion programs are estimatedto be in excess of $A1.3 billionover the next ve years.

(Extracted from the WhitsundayHinterland and Mackay Regional Plan)




average temperature in the WHM region has risen,with this increase accelerating over the last decade(1998–2007). The average annual temperature was22.7 °C in the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which isa 0.2 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. However,over the last decade it has risen by a further 0.3 °C.

The increase in annual maximum temperature ispresented in Figure 1. The trend over time is representedby the black line in each graph. The change in maximumtemperatures is greater in the autumn, with the averageover the last decade increasing by 0.7 °C, compared tothe 1961–1990 average.


Historical temperature records for Mackay (Figure 2)show that since the late 1970s the number of dayseach year where the maximum temperature exceeds35 °C has tended to increase.

272829

30

3031323334

27282930

22232425

2829303132

27.928.5

31.932.4

27.728.4

22.723.2

29.329.8

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

Figure 1: Historical annua l and s easona l maximumtemperatures for the Whitsunda y, Hinterlandand Mackay region for the period 1950–2007,compared to the base period 1961–1990



Average maximum temperature has risen in theWhitsunda y, Hinterland and Mackay region

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s

> 3 5

° C

Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35

˚

C for MackayNote: blank spaces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ° C.‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not ava ila ble(i.e. the actua l values may be greater tha n what is show n).


The number of da ys over 35 ˚ C has risen in Mackay



Rainfall (BoM, 2008)Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors suchas topography and vegetation, and broader scale

weather patterns, for example El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how thisnatural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns,long term rainfall records are required. The BoM hasbeen collecting rainfall data for the WHM regionsince 1897.

The variability in annual rainfall is shown in thetop graph in Figure 3. The dominant wet period ofthe 1950s and 1970s contrasts with the dry yearsthat have been experienced for the last two decades.


Over the most recent decade, there has been a39 per cent decline in the average autumn rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. This declinein autumn rainfall also occurred earlier in the century.Summer average rainfall has declined by six per cent;however, the summer rainfall in each year since themid-1980s has been close to the 1961–1990 average.

The change in the autumn rainfall is the majorcontributor to the overall 11 per cent decrease inthe annual rainfall for the region over the last decade(1998–2007).

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Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

500

1000

1500

0

500

1000

0

200

400

600

0

100

200

0

100

200

300

809722(−10.9%)

390368(−5.7%)

223136(−38.9%)

9173(24.8%)

128113(13.2%)


Figure 3: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfall for the Whitsunda y, Hinterland a ndMackay region for the period 1897–2007

The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.The d ifference in rainfall betwee n the bas eline andlast de cade is sh own in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.







Averaged over the Whitsunday, Hinterland and Mackay

region, the annual mean potential evaporation overthe period 1971–2000 (1964 mm) is twice the annualmean rainfall over the same period (837 mm), whichcontributes to the depletion of soil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effectssuch as extreme waves combine to make the totalcyclone hazard. This hazard is greatest in Queenslandbetween January and March, but tropical cyclonesin Queensland can occur anytime over the periodfrom November to April.

On average, 4.7 tropical cyclones per year affect theQueensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Area ofResponsibility; this area includes all of Queensland,a large portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria, NorthernNSW and extends out to 600 km off theQueensland coast.

Cyclone activity in Australia decreases duringan El Niño pattern and increases in a La Niñapattern (CSIRO & BoM, 2007). However, for northernQueensland regions such as Whitsunday, Hinterlandand Mackay, this trend is not strong (Figure 4). In allbut one decade since 1907, at least one cyclonea decade has crossed the coast in this region.

Projected clima te chang ein Whits unda y, Hinterlandand Macka yGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently consideredto be the best tools for projecting climate change.CSIRO has recently released climate changeprojections for Australia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) basedon the results from 23 Global Climate Models.Projections for the WHM region have been extractedfrom this dataset for the Queensland Climate ChangeCentre of Excellence (QCCCE). The projectionspresented here are relative to the base period of1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little differenceunder the low, medium and high emissions scenariosto 2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate changeprojections for Whitsunday, Hinterland andMackay have been presented on a mid-rangeemissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for the WHM regionin 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described in Table 2.The numbers shown in brackets indicate the rangeof the results from the Global Climate Models.

N u m

b e r o f c y c l o n e s

Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6


Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2 6

1 9 0 7 – 1 9 1

6

Figure 4: Tota l and overland number of tropica lcyclones for Whitsunda y, Hinterland a nd Mackayregion for the period 1907–2006Adapted from BoM, 2008

El Niño and La Niña weather pa tterns a cross theWhitsunda y, Hinterland and Mackay region





2030 (medium emissions scena rio)

Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annual meantemperature (the average of all daily temperatureswithin a given year) is projectedto increase by 0.9 °C. There is no variationin projections across the seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year)is projected to decrease by three per cent (-25 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of seven per cent

is projected for spring (-9 mm).Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increaseis projected to be around three per cent (59 mm),with some models projecting up to a six per centincrease in autumn (26 mm) and winter (19 mm).

2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature will increase by 1.1 °C and 1.9 °C underthe low and high emissions scenarios respectively.There is little variation in projections acrossthe seasons.

Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfallwill decrease by four per cent (-33 mm) andseven per cent (-59 mm) under the low andhigh emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 13 per cent (-16 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration• :under a high emissions scenario an increasein annual potential evaporation of up to nine

per cent (177 mm) is projected with the bestestimate being seven per cent (137 mm). Autumnis projected to have the greatest increase of upto 12 per cent (53 mm).


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfallis projected to decrease by ve per cent (-42 mm)and 10 per cent (-84 mm) under the low and high

emissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissionsscenario of 20 per cent (-25 mm) is projectedfor spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l eva poration•

: undera high emissions scenario, annual evaporationis projected to increase by as much as 15 per cent(295 mm). Autumn is projected to be the seasonmost impacted with increases up to 19 per cent(83 mm) in some models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere willincrease the likelihood of a record high temperaturein a given region. The Global Climate Models projecta rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for an observing station in the Whitsunday,Hinterland and Mackay with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Mackay,the number of hot days above 35 °C is projected toincrease from one days to 12 days.

1223111(4–32)(1–5)(2–8)(1–3)(1–2)

Mackay


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High


Cyclones and sea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones,have a complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patternssuch as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predicttheir frequency of occurrence. This results indiscrepancies in cyclone frequencies betweendifferent climate models.

Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency offthe east coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006).However, they also simulate an increase in thenumber of long-lived and severe (Category 3–5)eastern Australian tropical cyclones. Under threedifferent studies the number of severe tropicalcyclones is projected to increase by 56 per cent by



2050 (Walsh et al, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050 (Leslieet al, 2007) and 140 per cent by 2070 (Abbs et al,2006).

Projected southward shifts in the primary regions

of cyclone development through the coming century(Abbs et al, 2006, Leslie et al, 2007) could resultin a greater cyclone impact in the WHM region.With changes in the intensity of future cyclones

and projected rise in mean sea levels (CSIRO & BoM,2007), storm surges will be able to penetrate furtherinland greatly contributing to damage to naturalecosystems and infrastructure and the risk of erosionin low-lying coastal regions.

Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature°C

Annual 22.7 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.6]

+ 1.6[+1.1 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.1 to +4.2]

Summer 27.1 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.9[+1.2 to +2.7]

+ 1.6[+1.0 to +2.3]

+ 3.0[+2.0 to +4.4]

Autumn 23.0 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.7 to +1.6]

+ 1.8[+1.2 to +2.7]

+ 1.5[+1.0 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.0 to +4.3]

Winter 17.2 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.7]

+ 1.6[+1.0 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.0 to +4.3]

Spring 23.6 °C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1[+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.9[+1.3 to +2.6]

+ 1.6[+1.1 to +2.2]

+ 3.0[+2.1 to +4.2]

Rainfall%

Annual 837 mm -3[-13 to +5]

-4[-15 to +6]

-7[-24 to +10]

-5[-20 to +9]

-10[-35 to +17]

Summer 413 mm -2[-13 to +8]

-3[-15 to +9]

-4[-23 to +15]

-4[-20 to +13]

-7[-35 to +24]

Autumn 218 mm -4[-19 to +10]

-5[-21 to +13]

-8[-34 to +20]

-7[-29 to +17]

-12[-48 to +33]

Winter 74 mm -3[-17 to +11]

-4[-19 to +13]

-6[-31 to +21]

-5[-26 to +17]

-10[-44 to +33]

Spring 126 mm -7[-20 to +5]

-8[-23 to +6]

-13[-36 to +10]

-11[-31 to +8]

-20[-51 to +16]


Annual 1964 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 7[+4 to +9]

+ 6[+4 to +8]

+ 11[+7 to +15]

Summer 615 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 3[+2 to +4]

+ 6[+3 to +10]

+ 5[+3 to +8]

+ 10[+5 to +16]

Autumn 438 mm + 4[+2 to +6]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 8[+5 to +12]

+ 6[+4 to +10]

+ 12[+7 to +19]

Winter 323 mm + 4[+2 to +6]

+ 5[+3 to +7]

+ 7[+5 to +11]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 12[+7 to +18]

Spring 588 mm + 3[+2 to +5]

+ 4[+2 to +6]

+ 6[+4 to +9]

+ 5[+3 to +8]

+ 10[+6 to +14]

Table 2. Summary of projections for Whits unda y, Hinterland a nd Mackay** To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the number

outside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.



The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected toincrease by 36 cm in Mackay and 31 cm at Airlie Beachif certain conditions eventuate. These conditions are a30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase in cycloneintensity and frequency, as well as a 130 km shiftsouthwards in cyclone tracks (Hardy et al, 2004).


These rises in sea levels will have serious implicationsfor the coastal communities and ecological assets ofthe WHM region, ranging from contaminated freshwater aquifers through to regular inundation of criticalinfrastructure.

Impa cts of clima te chang e onthe Whitsunday, Hinterland a ndMa cka y regionProjections for the WHM region include a decline inrainfall with increasing temperature and evaporation,in conjunction with more extreme climate events andsea-level rise. The temperature projections for inactionon climate change suggest a temperature increase welloutside the range of temperatures ever experienced

over the last 50 years. The projections for temperatureand hot days are all in the same direction—increasing.

Whitsunday, Hinterland and Mackay is a highly diverseregion that is endowed with an abundance of naturalresources, good agricultural land and highly attractivetourist destinations.

Therefore, the challenges facing the region are many.Considerable effort will be required to mitigate theimpacts of climate change and develop appropriateadaptation strategies. Some examples of the keyimpacts are:

A high proportion of the region’s population•

lives close to the coast, thus, greatly compoundingthe likely consequence of cyclones. Cyclones canalso bring considerable rain, which leads to ooding, landslides and damage due to fallentrees, affecting industry and placing stress onwater, sewerage and stormwater infrastructure.

Sea-level rise will pose a particular challenge•

for the coastlines and communities of Whitsunday,Hinterland and Mackay. Higher mean sea levels willenable inundation and waves resulting from stormsurges to penetrate further inland increasing ooding and erosion.

People will also be affected, as increased•

exposure to extreme climatic events, such ascyclones and ooding endanger lives and property.Insurance is a mechanism that society uses toshare risks; such impacts from extreme stormevents may affect its cost and availability, as theindustry plays a signi cant role in covering weatherrelated damage and personal injuries. Populationgrowth and development in areas prone to ooding

or storm surges, and buildings no longer able towithstand increasing wind strength, will increasethe risks for insurance and re-insurance. This willaffect the community both directly and indirectlyas businesses incorporate increased premiumsinto their costs.

In the WHM region, the tourism industry is relianton a healthy reef environment. Reef environmentsare particularly vulnerable to the impacts ofclimate change.

Increased temperatures are likely to cause moreregular coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef.These bleaching events are very likely to becomemore severe as temperatures increase and suchevents could occur annually by 2050. As aconsequence, the Great Barrier Reef is very unlikelyto survive in its present form. The degradation ofthe reef will not only be a loss of great intrinsic value,it will also come at a great cost to the tourism industry,(NRM, 2004).

In addition, the increasing concentration of carbondioxide is causing increased acidi cation of sea water

which in turn, impacts the coral formation, making theGreat Barrier Reef more vulnerable to climate change(De’ath et al, 2009).

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References




Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2003, Whitsunday,Hinterland and Mackay Regional Plan, Department ofInfrastructure and Planning, Brisbane,

<http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/wham/wham.pdf>DIP 2008, Queensland Future Populations: Appendix C (based on


Department o f Nat ural Resources a nd Mines 2004, Climate Change:the Challenge for Natural Resource Management, Department ofNatural Resources and Mines, Brisbane,<www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AboutUs/Publications/ByType/Reports/ClimateChange/ChallengeForNaturalResourceManagement/Booklet_HighQuality.pdf>

De’ath G, Lough JM and Fabricius KE 2009, Declining Coral

Calci

cation on the Great Barrier Reef, Science, 323:5910,<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;323/5910/116>






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Climate change in theWide Bay Burnett Reg ion

This reg ional summary describesthe projected climate cha ngefor the Wide Ba y Burnett(WBB) region.



North BurnettRegionalCouncil

GympieRegionalCouncilSouth Burnett

RegionalCouncil

BundabergRegionalCouncil

Fraser CoastRegionalCouncil

GladstoneRegionalCouncil

CherbourgShire

GayndahPost Office

Cowal

MurgonPost Office

FairymeadSugar Mill

Bundaberg Aero

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Average annual temperature in WBB has increased 0.4 °C•

over the last decade (from 20.5 °C to 20.9 °C).

Projections indicate an increase of up to 4.1 °C by 2070; leading•


By 2070, Bundaberg may have 12 times the number of•

days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of one per year,to an average of 12 per year by 2070), while Gayndah mayhave more than triple (increasing from an average of 23 per year,to an average of 81 per year by 2070).

RainfallAverage annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly 12 per cent•

compared with the previous 30 years. This is generally consistentwith natural variability experienced over the last 110 years,which makes it dif cult to detect any in uence of climate changeat this stage.



EvaporationProjections indicate annual potential evaporation could•

increase 7–16 per cent by 2070.

Extreme eventsThe 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by•

50 cm in Hervey Bay if certain conditions eventuate. Theseconditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase incyclone intensity and frequency, as well as a 130 km shiftsouthwards in cyclone tracks.

A regiona lpro le

Climate a ndlandscapeThe WBB region enjoys asubtropical climate with warmwet summers and mild winters.Rainfall is highly seasonal,with most rain occurring duringthe summer months.

The region is renowned for

its unique coastal communities,including the World Heritage-listed Fraser Island, theMackay-Capricorn section ofthe Great Barrier Reef and theRAMSAR-listed Great SandyStraits wetlands.

DemographicsIn 2007, the region’s populationwas 325 893, and is projected to

increase beyond 369 000 by 2026.(OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008)

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Importa nt industriesof the reg ionRegional industries includeagriculture, timber production,sugar growing and processing,heavy industries, miningand tourism.

Agriculture is the dominantindustry, contributing signi cantlyto the state’s sugar, beef andpeanut production. Otheragricultural industries includecereal crops, dairying andfruit and vegetable growing.

Over 60 per cent of the state’sforestry plantations are in theWBB region. This representsover six per cent of the totalAustralian estate.

Tourism is a signi cant industryin the key tourism areas of FraserIsland, Hervey Bay and SouthBurnett. There is also a signi cantnumber of smaller recreation,accommodation andrelated services.

While the total area coveredby mining and extractive industriesis relatively small in the region,they play an important role inregional and state developmentand energy production.

The Queensland Governmenthas designated Gladstone asa hub for heavy industry and

a Centre of Excellence for lightmetals engineering andmanufacturing. Gladstone hasbeen speci cally reserved forlarge-scale resource processing,metals smelting and downstreammanufacturing industries.

(Extracted from the Wide Bay BurnettRegional Plan)

Unders ta nding the clima te andhow it changesQueensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate changewill lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the riskof human-induced climate change requires an understanding ofthe current climate using historical data and future climate scenarios.These future scenarios are prepared using data from GlobalClimate Models.

MethodHistorical climate da taHistorical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)were aggregated across the WBB region. The uctuations and trendsin the observed data are presented including extremes in temperatureand the frequency of cyclones.





Current Climate

Tempera ture (BoM, 2008)

Historical temperature records indicate the average temperature inthe WBB region has risen, with this increase accelerating over the lastdecade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 20.5 °C



in the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a0.3 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. However,over the last decade it has risen by a further 0.4 °C,suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature.

The increase in annual maximum temperatureis presented in Figure 1. The trend over timeis represented by the black line in each graph.The change in maximum temperatures is greater in thesummer and autumn, with the average over the lastdecade increasing by 1.2 °C, compared to the1961–1990 average.

Temperature extremes (BoM, 2008)Extremes in temperature (such as a number of daysexceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do notextend past a couple of days. Due to the in uence

of regional topography, proximity to the ocean andprevailing winds, location-speci c data are requiredwhen considering changes in these extreme eventsover time.

Historical temperature records for Bundaberg(Figure 2) and Gayndah (Figure 3) show that sincethe late 1970s, in most years, the number of dayswhere the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °Chas tended to increase. Due to its inland location,Gayndah currently experiences more extremetemperature days than coastal Bundaberg and

the number of these extreme days is rising.

M a x i m u m


( ° C )

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

262728

29

2930313233

2526272829

20212223

26272829

26.227.3

30.4

31.6

26.4

27.6

21.0

22.0

27.127.9

Figure 1: Historical annual a nd s eas onal maximumtemperatures for the Wide Ba y Burnett region forthe period 1950–2007, compared to the ba seperiod 1961–1990The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both t he ba se line of 1961–1990 a nd th e las tdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at th e right of the graph.Note: vertical sca les may differ between gra phs.


Average maximum temperature has risen in theWide Ba y Burnett reg ion

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Figure 2: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for BundabergNote: Blank spaces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not exceed 35 ˚C.‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set is notava ilable (i.e. the actua l va lues may be grea ter thanwhat is shown)


The number of days over 35 ° C ha s risen inBundaberg




Annual and seasonal average rainfall is stronglyin uenced by natural variability, local factors such astopography and vegetation, and broader scale weatherpatterns, for example El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. To understand how this naturaltemporal variation changes rainfall patterns, long termrainfall records are required. The BoM has beencollecting rainfall data for the Wide Bay Burnett regionsince 1897.

The variability in annual rainfall is shown in Figure 4.The dominant wet period of the 1950s and 1970s

contrasts with the dry years that have beenexperienced for the last two decades.


Over the most recent decade, there has been a31 per cent decline in the average autumn rainfallcompared to the 1961–1990 average. Summer averagerainfall has only declined by 15 per cent; however, therehas been a fairly consistent decrease since the 1970s,with only eight summers in this period above the

1961–1990 average. This decrease in rainfall has beendue to a lack of high rainfall years in recent decades.

The changes in the autumn and summer rainfall arethe major contributors to the overall approximate

14 per cent decline in the annual rainfall for the regionover the last decade (1998–2007).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3540

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

N u m

b e r o

f d a y s > 3 5

° C

Year

Figure 3: Number of da ys where the temperatureexceeded 35 ˚ C for Gaynda hNote: Bla nk spa ces a re those yea rs where the maximumtemperature did not e xceed 35 °C.‘X’ denotes the yea r for which the full data set isnot ava ilable (i.e. the a ctual values may be grea ter thanwhat is shown).


The number of days over 35 ° C ha s risen inGayndah

Annual

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

T o t a


)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

500

1000

1500

200400600800

1000

0

200

400

600

0

100

200

300

100

200

300400

880760(−13.6%)

356301(−15.2%)

209143(−31.3%)

127121(−4.6%)

192188(2.4%)

Figure 4: Historical annua l and seas onal tota lrainfall for the Wide Ba y Burnett region for theperiod 1897– 2007The b lack line is a ve-year running a verag e.The mea n for both th e ba se line 1961–1990 and the la stdeca de 1998–2007 are s hown by the g reen lines a ndindicat ed numerically at the right of th e graph.The difference in rainfall betwe en the bas eline and lastdeca de is show n in per cent.Note: vertical sca les may differ between g raphs.






supply of water to evaporate (either from the soil orfrom water bodies). Although potential evaporation candiffer from actual evaporation, a change in potentialevaporation gives a good indication of the change inthe evaporative power of the atmosphere.

Networks to measure potential evaporation are not aswell developed as those that measure temperature andrainfall and there are insuf cient data available toindicate the changes over time.

Averaged over the Wide Bay Burnett region, the annualmean potential evaporation over the period 1971–2000(1715 mm) is twice the annual mean rainfall over thesame period (862 mm), which contributes to thedepletion of soil moisture.

CyclonesStrong winds, intense rainfall and ocean effects suchas extreme waves combine to make the total cyclonehazard. This hazard is greatest in Queensland between January and March, but tropical cyclones inQueensland can occur anytime over the period fromNovember to April.

Although the Wide Bay Burnett region is further souththan the main area of tropical cyclone development andoccurrence, tropical cyclones still have an impact on theregion (Figure 5), either from those that do track further

southwards or the heavy rain and strong easterly windsthrough the region that accompany cyclones to the north.

There is a relationship between the impact of cycloneson eastern Australia and the El Niño-Southern

Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This relationship isre ected in Figure 5 with fewer cyclones in the lastthree decades which is associated with an El Niñopattern (in fact there were none in the last decade)compared to the La Niña dominant decadescommencing in the mid 1940s and mid 1960s.

Projected climate change inWide Bay BurnettGlobal Climate Models simulate the earth’s climatesystem using a complex set of mathematical rules thatdescribe the physical processes of the atmosphere,ocean, land and ice. They are currently considered tobe the best tools for projecting climate change. CSIROhas recently released climate change projections forAustralia (CSIRO & BoM, 2007) based on the resultsfrom 23 Global Climate Models. Projections for theWide Bay Burnett region have been extracted from thisdataset for the Queensland Climate Change Centre ofExcellence (QCCCE). The projections presented hereare relative to the base period of 1980–1999.

The Global Climate Models show little difference underthe low, medium and high emissions scenarios to2030. Therefore, the 2030 climate change projectionsfor the Wide Bay Burnett have been presented ona mid-range emissions scenario.


The full range of projected changes for temperature,rainfall and potential evaporation for the Wide BayBurnett in 2030, 2050 and 2070 are described inTable 2. The numbers shown in brackets indicate therange of the results from the Global Climate Models.


2030 (medium emiss ions s cenario)Annual and s ea sona l temperat ure• : annual meantemperature (the average of all daily temperatures

within a given year) is projected to increase by0.9 °C. There is little variation in projections acrossthe seasons.

N u m

b e r o

f c y c l o n e s

Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 9 9 7 – 2 0 0

6 1 9 8 7

– 1 9 9 6

1 9 7 7 – 1 9 8

6 1 9 6 7

– 1 9 7 6

1 9 5 7 – 1 9 6

6 1 94 7 – 1

9 5 6 1 9 3 7

– 1 94 6 1 9 2 7

– 1 9 3 6


Overland Total

1 9 1 7 – 1 9 2

6 1 9 0 7

– 1 9 1 6


cyclones for Wide Ba y Burnett region for the period1907–2006Adapted from BoM, 2008




Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall(the total rainfall received within a given year) isprojected to decrease by three per cent (-26 mm).The largest seasonal decrease of six per cent(-12 mm) is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : acrossall seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increase isprojected to be around 3–4 per cent (51–69 mm),with some models projecting up to a six per centincrease in autumn (23 mm) and winter (16 mm).

2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)Annual and s eas onal temperature• : annualtemperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C and1.8 °C under the low and high emissions scenariosrespectively. There is little variation in projections

across the seasons.Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by four per cent (-34 mm)and six per cent (-52 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease of 11 per cent (-21 mm) underthe high emissions scenario is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario an increase in annualpotential evaporation of up to 10 per cent (172 mm)is projected with the best estimate being

seven per cent (120 mm). Autumn and winter areprojected to have the greatest increases of up to12 per cent (45 mm and 31 mm respectively).


Annual and s ea sona l ra infall• : annual rainfall isprojected to decrease by ve per cent (-43 mm)and 10 per cent (-86 mm) under the low and highemissions scenarios respectively. The largestseasonal decrease under a high emissions scenarioof 18 per cent (-35 mm) is projected for spring.

Annual and sea sona l potentia l evapora tion• : undera high emissions scenario, annual evaporationis projected to increase by as much as 16 per cent(274 mm). Autumn and winter are projected to bethe seasons most impacted with increases up to19 per cent (72 mm and 50 mm respectively) insome models.

Temperature ext remesGlobal Climate Models indicate that increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere willincrease the likelihood of a record high temperature in

a given region. The Global Climate Models project arise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007).Table 1 shows the projected number of days above35 °C for two observing stations in the Wide BayBurnett region with good historical records.

Under a high emissions scenario in 2070 for Bundaberg,the number of hot days above 35 °C is projected toincrease from one day to 12 days. Under the samescenario for Gayndah, the number of hot days wouldmore than triple from 23 days to 81 days.

Cyclones and sea-level riseExtreme weather events, such as cyclones, havea complex link to ocean surface temperatures,characteristics of a region and global climate patternssuch as the ENSO, making it dif cult to predict theirfrequency of occurrence. This results in discrepanciesin cyclone frequencies between differentclimate models.

Recent studies have projected a slight decrease(nine per cent) in tropical cyclone frequency off theeast coast of Australia by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006);however, they also simulate an increase in the numberof long-lived and severe (Category 3–5) easternAustralian tropical cyclones. Under three differentstudies the number of severe tropical cyclones isprojected to increase by 56 per cent by 2050 (Walsh etal, 2004), 22 per cent by 2050 (Leslie et al, 2007) and140 per cent by 2070 (Abbs et al, 2006).

814854413523(58–121)(38–64)(42–74)(34–51)(32–44)

Gayndah

1245321(5–33)(2–6)(3–9)(2–4)(2–3)

Bundaberg


2050Low

2050High

2070Low

2070High

Table 1: Number of hot days per yea r above 35 ˚ Cprojected for 2030 (mid emissions scena rio) and2050 and 2070 (low a nd high emiss ions scena rios).Current number of days calculated using a base period of1971–2000.



Projected southward shifts in the primary regions ofcyclone development through the coming century(Abbs et al, 2006, Leslie et al, 2007) could result in agreater cyclone impact in the WBB region. Withprojected increases in the intensity of cyclones andprojected rise in mean sea levels (CSIRO & BoM,2007), storm surges will be able to penetrate furtherinland greatly increasing the risk of damage to naturalecosystems and infrastructure and the risk of erosionin low-lying coastal regions.

Variable Season

(1971–2000)2030 † 2050 † 2070 †

Emissions Scenarios

Currenthistorical

mean*


Projected Changes #

Temperature˚

CAnnual 20.5

˚

C + 0.9[+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1 [+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.8 [+1.3 to +2.6]

+ 1.5 [+1.0 to +2.1]

+ 2.9 [+2.0 to +4.1]

Summer 25.2˚

C + 0.9 [+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1 [+0.7 to +1.6]

+ 1.8 [+1.2 to +2.6]

+ 1.5 [+1.0 to +2.2]

+ 2.9 [+1.9 to +4.2]

Autumn 21.1˚

C + 0.9 [+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1 [+0.7 to +1.5]

+ 1.8 [+1.2 to +2.5]

+ 1.5 [+1.0 to +2.1]

+ 2.8 [+1.9 to +4.1]

Winter 14.8˚

C + 0.9 [+0.6 to +1.3]

+ 1.1 [+0.8 to +1.6]

+ 1.8 [+1.2 to +2.6]

+ 1.5 [+1.0 to +2.2]

+ 2.9 [+2.0 to +4.2]

Spring 20.9˚

C + 0.9 [+0.6 to +1.4]

+ 1.2 [+0.8 to +1.7]

+ 1.9 [+1.3 to +2.7]

+ 1.6 [+1.0 to +2.3]

+ 3.0 [+2.0 to +4.4]

Rainfall%

Annual 862 mm -3 [-12 to +5]

-4[-14 to +6]

-6 [-22 to +10]

-5 [-19 to +8]

-10[-33 to +16]

Summer 330 mm -1 [-11 to +9]

-1 [-13 to +10]

-2 [-21 to +17]

-2 [-18 to +14]

-4 [-31 to +27]

Autumn 208 mm -3 [-15 to +9]

-4 [-17 to +11]

-6 [-27 to +17]

-5 [-23 to +14]

-10 [-40 to +28]

Winter 112 mm -5 [-15 to +5]

-6 [-17 to +6]

-10 [-27 to +9]

-8 [-23 to +8]

-15 [-40 to +15]

Spring 194 mm -6[-19 to +6]

-7[-21 to +7]

-11 [-34 to +12]

-10 [-29 to +10]

-18 [-49 to +19]


Annual 1715 mm + 3 [+2 to +5]

+ 4 [+2 to +5]

+ 7 [+4 to +10]

+ 6 [+4 to +8]

+ 11[+7 to +16]

Summer 575 mm + 3 [+2 to +5]

+ 3 [+2 to +4]

+ 7 [+3 to +11]

+ 5 [+3 to +9]

+ 11 [+6 to +17]

Autumn 377 mm + 4 [+2 to +6]

+ 4 [+2 to +6]

+ 8 [+4 to +12]

+ 6 [+4 to +10]

+ 12 [+7 to +19]

Winter 262 mm + 4 [+2 to +6]

+ 5 [+3 to +7]

+ 8[+5 to +12]

+ 6 [+4 to +10]

+ 12 [+8 to +19]

Spring 505 mm + 3 [+2 to +5]

+ 4 [+2 to +5]

+ 6 [+3 to +9]

+ 5 [+3 to +7]

+ 9 [+5 to +14]

Table 2: Summary of projections for the Wide-Bay Burnett* To enable the projections for each of the regions to be referenced against historical climate, observational means have beencalculated using a 30-year base period of 1971–2000.# Projections represent the change in temperature, relative change in rainfall and potential evaporation relative to the model baseperiod of 1980–1999. The numbers in brackets are the 10th and 90th percentiles and depict the range of uncertainty; the numberoutside the brackets is the 50th percentile (i.e. the best estimate). The changes are the average change over the region.† These projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and 2070.Data source: CSIRO & BoM 2007. Regional summaries prepared by QCCCE.

The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected toincrease by 50 cm in Hervey Bay if certain conditionseventuate. These conditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise,a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensity andfrequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards incyclone tracks (Hardy et al, 2004).




These rises in sea levels will have serious implicationsfor the coastal communities and ecological assetsof the Wide Bay Burnett region, ranging fromcontaminated fresh water aquifers through toregular inundation of critical infrastructure.

Impa cts of clima te chang e onthe Wide Ba y Burnett reg ionProjections for the Wide Bay Burnett region includea decline in rainfall with increasing temperature and

evaporation, in conjunction with more extreme climateevents, such as sea-level rise and cyclonic weather.The temperature projections for inaction on climatechange suggest a temperature increase well outsidethe range of temperatures ever experienced over thelast 50 years. The projections for temperature andhot days are all in the same direction—increasing.

With more than 80 per cent of the region’s populationlocated in the ve major centres of Bundaberg, HerveyBay, Gympie, Maryborough and Kingaroy, and with theremaining residents located in predominantly rural

shires, planning for the future is imperative. In the last20 years, the Wide Bay Burnett region has experiencedsigni cant population growth, particularly in thecoastal region, as some 85 000 new residents movedto the area. Climate change will affect the region’seconomy, development and urban planning—particularly in such a rapidly growing regionas Wide Bay Burnett.

Agriculture is very important to the Wide Bay Burnettregion, with a value in excess of $A1.1 billion (DIP,2007), representing more than 10 per cent

of Queensland’s total agricultural production of$A9.5 billion (OESR, 2008). Variable and decliningrainfall, combined with rising temperatures andincreased evaporation could have a signi cant impacton primary production.

For example:


scenario, the predicted decline in rainfall(-8 per cent), increasing high temperatures(+1.8 °C) and an increase in evaporation(+10 per cent) could result in signi cant challenges

in supplying suf cient water to meet the demand ofthe region.

Increased evaporation will have a negative•

impact on water storage, including greater lossesfrom dams and storages. Industrial water demandrepresents 15 per cent of current total wateruse in the WBB region and this could increaseby 15–25 per cent through increased demand forevaporative cooling at major industrial sites suchas Tarong Power Station and various sugar mills.

Heatwaves characterised by extreme•

temperatures—high 30s or even 40s—persistingfor a number of days, can result in signi canthealth impacts such as heat exhaustion andincreased mortality among vulnerable sectorsof the community such as the very young or old.It may be more dif cult for locations that havenot typically experienced these extremes on aregular basis (such as Bundaberg) to adapt tothese conditions. Warmer conditions may alsohelp spread vector-borne disease further south.These health issues could place further pressureon medical and hospital services.

Further population growth is expected, with WBB•

having an estimated 90 000 new residents by theyear 2026, all of which will require infrastructurein place. In addition, two very climate-sensitiveindustries, agriculture and tourism, will continueto play a signi cant role in the region’s economy.

P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d





Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research ( OESR ) 2007,Queensland Regional Pro les, (based on reformed LocalGovernment Areas), Of ce of Economic and Statistical Research,Brisbane, <statistics.oesr.qld.gov.au/qld-regional-pro les>

OESR 2008, Agriculture: Gross value of production by commodity,Australian Bureau of Statistics, Brisbane,<www.oesr.qld.gov.au/queensland-by-theme/industry/agriculture-forestry- shing/tables/agriculture-gross-value-production/index.shtml>


References




Department of Infrastructure and Planning ( DIP ) 2007, Wide BayBurnett Regional Plan: 2007-2026, Department of Infrastructureand Planning, Brisbane,

<www.dip.qld.gov.au/docs/planning/planning/projects/widebay/plan/WBBRPlan.pdf>DIP 2008, Queensland Future Populations: Appendix C (based on



P h o t o :

T o u r i s m

Q u e e n s

l a n

d



Green = initiat ive implemented/ongoing a ctivity integrat ed with core business /completedAmber = initiat ive commenced a nd progressingRed = no progress or initiative superseded

Clima teSmart 2050 Mitiga tion Initia tives

$900 million investment in demonst rat ing clean coal technolog ies

In May 2007, Queensland Government approved an allocation of $300 million from the Queensland FutureGrowth Fund to support the development of clean coal technologies. Under the provisions of the Clean CoalTechnology Special Agreement Act 2007, the government’s $300 million clean coal funding is to besupplemented with an estimated $600 million (uncapped) from the Australian Coal Association LowEmissions Technologies Limited (ACALET) over ten years.

The total $900 million clean coal funding will be administered by the Queensland Clean Coal Council, anadvisory body to the Premier on clean coal projects. The Premier announced the members of the Clean CoalCouncil on 13 July 2007 and it met for the rst time on 11 September 2007. The Clean Coal Council meets atleast four times per year.

Progress

Dispensation of clean coal funding from the Queensland Future Growth Fund and ACALET has commenced,with the ZeroGen Project, the Callide Oxyfuel Project and the Carbon Geostorage Initiative having receivedfunding as at January 2009. There is currently another IGCC with CCS project emerging that will also beconsidered by the Clean Coal Council.

The government and ACALET are providing $102.5 million and $26.2 million respectively for the FeasibilityStudy for Stage One of the ZeroGen Project, an 80 megawatt (MW) plant by 2012. The Feasibility Study iscontinuing and ZeroGen has commenced a second drilling program which aims to identify a reservoir withsuf cient capacity for Stage One.

The government and ACALET are providing $10 million and $67.9 million respectively for the Callide OxyfuelProject. The CS Energy-led Callide Oxyfuel Project reached nancial closure and was of cially launched 14November 2008. Refurbishment of the Callide A Power Station unit has commenced and the plant willcommence operation in ‘air ring’ mode in early 2009 and commence operation in ‘oxy- ring’ mode inmid-2011.

The government and ACALET are providing $10 million and $20 million respectively for the CarbonGeosequestration Initiative. The work program commenced in May 2008, with information from this work inprogress to contribute to the identi cation of storage sites for the demonstration projects.

Appendix 4Progress Report of Initia tives inClimateSmart 2050 a ndClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12As a t Ja nuary 2009

ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland P1



$300 million Queensla nd Climate Cha nge Fund for new climate chang e initia tives

The Queensland Government announced the establishment of the Queensland Climate Change Fund, whichinvolves an estimated initial contribution of $300 million generated from the sale of government-owned windfarm assets and the remaining assets of the Enertrade business. This initial investment is intended to providean ongoing annual funding source for future climate change initiatives.

Progress

A number of priority climate change projects have received targeted funding from the Queensland ClimateChange Action Fund, including $60 million over three years for the ClimateSmart Home Service assistinghouseholds to improve their energy ef ciency, $3.4 million for the Big Light Switch campaign in 2008 whichdistributed 1 million compact uorescent light bulbs to households, $3 million over 2 years for the Low CarbonDiet assisting community groups to promote the 30 day program, and $2 million over 5 years for the NationalClimate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). The Queensland Climate Change Fund will alsocontribute $7.5 million for the Geothermal Centre of Excellence beginning in 2009.

$50 million Queensla nd Renewab le Energy Fund to a ss ist deployment of

renewa ble technologies

The Queensland Renewable Energy Fund is a $50 million investment by the Queensland Government tosupport the development and deployment of renewable energy technologies in Queensland.

Progress

Approximately $22 million from the Queensland Renewable Energy Fund has already been allocated toprojects to lay the foundation for Queensland’s clean energy future.

Commitments made from the fund include up to $7.5 million for the Geothermal Centre of Excellence,$7.5 million for a CSIRO Solar Thermal Demonstration plant, $0.25 million for solar mapping, $0.25 million forwind mapping and $7 million for the Cloncurry Solar Thermal Power Station.

QREF will also provide loans and grants via competitive funding rounds for proposals that are beyond ‘proof ofconcept’ to assist with demonstration and commercialisation. Round 1 closed in May 2008 and applicationsare now progressing through technical, economic and nancial assessment. Successful projects, totallingapproximately $18 million in assistance are expected to be announced in early 2009.

ClimateQ: toward a greener QueenslandP2



$10 million inves tment to identify future geos eq uest rat ion sites for undergroundstora ge of CO 2

The Queensland Government has committed $10 million to the Carbon Geostorage Initiative as part of the$900 million investment in demonstrating clean coal technologies, which aims to, evaluate and categorisegeological sites in Queensland that have the potential for long-term, safe and secure storage of carbon dioxideemissions. The initiative is jointly funded by Australian Coal Association Low Emissions Technologies Limited(ACALET) which has committed $20 million with a Commonwealth Government election commitment ofanother $20 million. Information from this work in progress will contribute to the identi cation of storage sitesfor the demonstration projects.

Progress

At it rst meeting on 11 September 2007, the Clean Coal Council endorsed a two-stage work program for theinitiative:

Stage 1—Assessment of Queensland geological basins•

Stage 2—Evaluation of selected basins or portions of basins to identify suitable sites and collection of•

new dataImplementation of the work program by the Queensland Geological Survey commenced in May 2008, with a nal report for Stage 1 to be completed in August 2009. This will provide a basis for identifying gaps inknowledge and for developing a plan to ll in the knowledge gaps. Stage 2 has commenced with the selectionof 5 priority basins, with a costed work program to be presented in quarter 1 2009. This will align with nationalCarbon Storage Taskforce criteria and priorities.

Queensland renewable a nd low-emission energy ta rget (RLEET) of 10 per cent by 2020

The Queensland Government announced a 10 per cent RLEET target to provide incentives for investment inrenewable energy industries such as solar hot water systems, solar photovoltaic cells, wind geothermal,biomass and land ll gas projects.

The 10 per cent RLEET was initially to be set at 6 per cent by 2015, increasing to 10 per cent by 2020 andremaining constant at 10 per cent until 2030.

Progress

Plans for the Queensland Government’s RLEET have been superseded by the Commonwealth Government’sexpanded national Renewable Energy Target (RET).

The Queensland Government has been working closely with the Commonwealth, through the Council ofAustralian Governments (COAG) Working Group on Climate Change and Water on the design of the RET.

An agreement between the Commonwealth and States and Territories on the RET expected to be reached atCOAG in early 2009.




Increa se t he proportion of electricity genera ted from ga s under the Queensla ndGas Scheme to 18 per cent by 2020

In 2000, the Queensland Government announced the Queensland Gas Scheme to provide incentives for thecontinued development of the gas industry in Queensland and should further reduce the state’s reliance oncoal- red electricity generation.

The scheme initially had a goal of achieving 13 per cent of all power sold sourced from Queensland-basedgas- red generation by 2015 and successfully met that target years ahead of schedule.

On the basis of the Queensland Gas Scheme’s initial success, the government announced in 2007 that the13 per cent target would be expanded to 15 per cent by 2015 and 18 per cent by 2020

Progress

The government introduced the Clean Energy Act 200 8 on 29 April 2008, increasing the mandatory target to15 per cent in 2010, and creating the power to allow further increases up to 18 per cent. This Act was passed byParliament on 21 May 2008.

After 2010, the Queensland Gas Scheme is to be transitioned into the Commonwealth Government’s CarbonPollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS). The Queensland Government will consider transitioning out of theScheme when the bene ts of the CPRS are broadly equivalent to that of the 18 per cent Gas Scheme.

Introduce a feed -in tariff for sola r power to pay househo lds for the elect ricity theygenerate

The Queensland Government announced a Solar Bonus Scheme to pay households and other small customersfor the surplus electricity generated from roof-top solar photovoltaic (PV) panel systems that is exported to theQueensland electricity grid.

The purpose of the Solar Bonus Scheme is to make solar power more affordable for Queenslanders, stimulatethe solar power industry and encourage energy ef ciency.

Progress

The Solar Bonus Scheme commenced on 1 July 2008. Customers participating in the scheme will be paid44 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for surplus electricity fed into the grid—around 3 times the current generaldomestic use tariff. From 1 July 2008 to 31 December 2008, 1 892 Queensland households and businesses hadsigned up to the Scheme, and over $100 000 worth of solar energy was fed into the grid.

Supporting resea rch into hydrogen fuel cells for gene ral use

The Queensland Government committed to support research into hydrogen fuel cell technologies forgeneral use.

Progress

Since the launch of ClimateSmart 2050 , the government has supported hydrogen fuel cell technologydevelopment in Queensland in a number of ways:

provided $80 000 sponsorship to host the World Hydrogen Energy Conference 2008 at the Brisbane•Convention Centre on 15–19 June 2008, which attracted close to 700 delegates from 44 countries

established a Webportal ( • www.hydrogen.industry.qld.gov.au) to help promote Queensland’s technical andresearch expertise in hydrogen and fuel cells

continues to consider proposals to support hydrogen and fuel projects under its innovation schemes•

continues to work with the Commonwealth and States and Territories to implement the Council of•Australian Government (COAG) Hydrogen Technology Roadmap




A framew ork for approving new coa l- red electricity genera tion

In ClimateSmart 2050 the Queensland Government announced conditions for new coal red electricity generation:that new coal- red power stations approved for operation in Queensland will be required to deploy emerging cleancoal technologies which provide for carbon capture and storage and ef cient water use. Where new generationcapacity is required before commercial-scale clean coal technologies become available, the conditions speci edthat coal- red projects would only be considered where power stations can demonstrate either:

the ability of future integration with clean coal or carbon capture and storage; or•

the project is tied to direct foreign investment in a major energy-intensive project in Queensland which•might otherwise be attracted to a nation that is a Non-Annex 1 country under the Kyoto Protocol (less-stringent emissions standards regarding electricity generation), and they adopt best practice generationtechnology, or

Queensland’s energy supply security is compromised and alternative energy sources are not economical in•the timeframe.

Progress

Signi cant amounts of gas- red generation capacity were committed almost immediately following the releaseof ClimateSmart 2050 , aided by the Queensland Gas Scheme. By ensuring suf cient generating capacity untilat least 2014, this investment in gas will alleviate the short-term need for signi cant investment in newcoal- red generation whilst clean coal technologies are still nascent.

With implementation of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) proposed from 2010, businesses willnow make commercial decisions regarding new coal- red generation plant and associated technology aftertaking into account long-term emissions liabilities. The CPRS provides a market incentive to complement thegovernment’s policy on new coal- red electricity generation.

$55 million Smart Energy Sa vings Progra m to increase energy ef ciency ofindustry

The Smart Energy Savings Program will require businesses, which consume energy above a speci

c threshold,to undertake an energy audit, develop an Energy Savings Plan and publish their actions for each relevant siteon a ve-yearly cycle. The purpose of the Smart Energy Savings Program is to drive energy savingimprovements in Queensland businesses.

In addition, the Smart Energy Savings Fund (SESF) is a $50 million funding program to assist Queenslandbusinesses (primarily small-to-medium) to invest in commercial energy saving projects. The fund encouragesQueensland businesses to identify and implement cost-effective energy improvements to their buildings,appliances and industrial processes. The fund offers grants and loans to support businesses that may havedif culty funding the energy ef ciency projects internally or by accessing traditional funding sources.

Progress

The Queensland Government introduced legislation for the Smart Energy Savings Program under its CleanEnergy Act 200 8 on 29 April 2008. This Act, passed by Parliament on 21 May 2008, stipulates thecommencement of the Smart Energy Savings Program effective 1 July 2009.

To assist businesses in understanding their obligations under the program ahead of the 1 July 2009 start date,the Queensland Government held information sessions for the Smart Energy Savings Program from Septemberto October 2008.

Approximately $15 million has been allocated from the SESF towards energy conservation and demandmanagement projects that match commercial and industrial customers (providing medium sized businessesthroughout Queensland with support for targeted projects that lock in audited energy conservation anddemand management outcomes). Most importantly these projects are located in the constrained areas of thedistribution network to maximise the peak demand bene ts.




$7.25 million Clima teS mart Homes Reba tes to increase energy e f ciency in remotehouseholds

The ClimateSmart Homes Rebate Program will target remote areas of the State that will not get access to fullretail competition for their electricity. Rebates will be provided to households for installing greenhousefriendly hot water systems, replacing refrigerator seals, decommissioning second energy-inef cientrefrigerators, and installing insulation and compact uorescent light bulbs.

The purpose of the Climate Smart Homes Rebate Program is to lower individual electricity bills and provideremote communities with affordable energy security.

Progress

A pilot for the Climate Smart Homes Rebate Program commenced during 2008 delivering a suite of energysaving initiatives and demand management measures for rural households and businesses on the CloncurryNorth Single Wire Earth Return (SWER). As part of the pilot project, Ergon Energy implemented a range ofenergy ef cient technologies and other energy savings, such as the installation of greenhouse ef cient hotwater systems, insulation and programmable timers to deliver energy and environmental bene ts.

Project planning is underway for a similar sustainable energy savings pilot in targeted isolated communitiesexperiencing network constraints, due to begin mid 2009.

$1.5 million Clima teS mart Living public awa reness a nd educa tion ca mpaign

The Queensland Government announced the ClimateSmart Living education campaign to empowerQueenslanders to change their ‘every day’ actions to reduce the impacts of climate change. The campaign willto raise awareness of climate change issues and provide tools, information and actions Queenslanders couldundertake to reduce their carbon footprint.

Progress

The ClimateSmart Living campaign was launched by the former Premier and the then Minister for Environmentand Multiculturalism in Airlie Beach on 18 June 2007.

The campaign focused on ‘calls-to-action’ and the cumulative effect that individual action could make at astate level, and concluded with direct community engagement in Brisbane’s central business district on WorldEnvironment Day on 5 June 2008, reinforcing the messages delivered earlier in the campaign. Furtherinformation on Phase 1 of the ClimateSmart Living Campaign can be found on page 15 of this Progress Report.

Based on the initial success of the ClimateSmart Living campaign, funding was announced for a second phasewhich commenced in July 2008 and will continue for two years. Using a range of elements, including the LowCarbon Diet and the Premier’s Climate Change Awards for Communities, Phase 2 will continue to empowerQueenslanders take actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The ClimateSmart Living campaign is supported by a comprehensive website (www.climatesmart.qld.gov.au),which includes a carbon calculator and practical advice for home-owners on how to be ‘climate smart’.




$500 000 Home EnergyWise t ools for househo ld energ y ef ciency

The $500 000 Home EnergyWise tools initiative will provide households with home energy ef cient self-audittools and materials containing practical advice on ways to use energy more ef ciently in the home. As part ofthe Home EnergyWise initiative, households will also be able to borrow an EnergyWise Appliance Testertoolbox from their local library to measure electricity consumption, record energy use and identify areas wherethey can save.

The purpose of the Home EnergyWise initiative is to help reduce household energy demand and energy costs.

Progress

Nearly 20 000 Home EnergyWise kits were distributed during 2008, including through the HomeWaterWiseService and public events such as Greenfest and the EKKA. Households can currently request free kits onlineor through Queensland Government Agent Program (QGAP) of ces, local Councils and consumerorganisations.

EnergyWise Appliance Tester tool boxes were piloted from late November 2008 to February 2009 in Brisbane,Toowoomba and Cairns libraries with the State-wide rollout to commence in mid-2009.

Energy Choices Progra m providing resident ial a nd school energy ef ciencyincentives

The Energy Choices Program is a $14.25 million package of complementary incentives which will be offered toQueensland housholds, such as residential gas rebates, energy auditing information and an EnergyWiseoff-peak campaign.

Progress

A range of energy conservation initiatives are progressing under the Energy Choices Program, including:

Stage 1 of the Cool Change air-conditioner cycling trial was completed in April 2008 with Stage 2•expanding to hot water systems and pool pumps, commencing during late 2008

energy ef cient street lighting trials commenced in late 2008 with an estimated 300 street lights to be•physically monitored against subjected environmental conditions and individual performance over a3 year period

schools participating in the EnergyWise Schools Energy Ef ciency Action Plan reported their progress in• January 2009

a pilot Whitegoods Replacement Program was launched in December 2008 to help storm victims purchase•energy ef cient whitegoods

the Residential Gas Installation Rebate Scheme commenced in June 2007 and offers up to $500 to•households which replace key electrical appliances with gas appliances in existing homes

Introduce a 4-st a r energy ef ciency s ta nda rd for new commercial buildings

The Queensland Government announced that all commercial buildings in Queensland will be required to reacha minimum 4-star energy ef ciency rating by 2010 under the Australian Building Greenhouse Rating(ABGR) scheme.

Progress

The Department of Infrastructure and Planning has undertaken detailed investigations in early 2008 regardingthe suitability of building rating schemes and mandatory requirements under the Building Code of AustraliaBCA, including consultation with industry.

Although most new commercial buildings are already being built to a potential 4-star energy ef ciency ratingbased upon design alone, in practice, a building may only achieve 2-star performance over time if it is poorlycommissioned and maintained. The government will therefore also progress analysis of possible options for

achieving additional energy ef

ciency improvements through requirements for the ongoing maintenanceof buildings.




Develop a Sta te P lanning Policy to include climate cha nge in regiona ldevelopment considerations

The Queensland Government announced it would develop a State Planning Policy to ensure climate changerisks and issues are incorporated into Queensland’s planning and development system.

Progress

Plans to develop a stand alone climate change State Planning Policy have been superseded by progress inintegrating climate change considerations into exisitng planning mechanisms.

The State Coastal Management Plan is currently being reviewed and will include an updated assessment ofclimate change impacts in relation to sea level rise and coastal inundation.

Regional planning processes are well-progressed in ve regions, including South East Queensland, and willtake into account climate change risks and issues. A statutory regional plan for Far North Queensland was nalised in February 2009. The climate change risk assessment undertaken as part of this process is includedas an adaptation case study in The Garnaut Climate Chang e Review .

Pha se-out of electric storag e hot -wa ter sys tems for existing houses (initially inga s reticulated areas)

The Queensland Government will begin mandating the phase-out of electric hot-water systems by householdswithin the reticulated gas network area from 2010.

Progress

The Government has prepared draft code provisions and it has undertaken consultation with stakeholders —speci cally hot water system manufacturers and gas distribution authorities — that will inform thedevelopment of an implementation plan.

A draft de nition of “gas reticulated area” has been developed with the gas supplier which will spatiallyidentify network areas in Queensland.

The Commonwealth Government has also committed to phasing out electric hot water systems,so implementation of the Queensland Government’s scheme may depend on timing and scope of thefederal initiative.

Queensland Carbon Offsets Policy to ta ke a dvanta ge of opportunities underthe CPRS

The Queensland Government announced it would develop a Carbon Offsets Policy, the purpose of which wasto position Queensland to maximise the bene ts from opportunities that will be available under a nationalemissions trading scheme and to ensure investment decisions by potential Queensland participants in thecarbon offset market are underpinned by sound information.

ProgressThe Queensland Government released a draft Discussion Paper relating to a Carbon Offsets Policy in early2008. Since the launch of the Commonwealth Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) WhitePaper, the project focus has since changed from developing a Carbon Offsets Policy to facilitating theparticipation of Queensland’s lessees in carbon markets.

The release of the Commonwealth Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) White Paper inDecember 2008 provided information on voluntary opt-in for re-forestation activities, which forms theframework for coverage of the forestry sector in the Scheme. In addition, the Commonwealth Governmentreleased the draft National Carbon Offset Standard in December 2008 with the aim of supporting and ensuringconsumer con dence in the voluntary carbon offset market.

The Queensland Government is examining the rules and requirements for reforestation and otherbiosequestration activities with the view to developing policy to facilitate the participation of lessees incarbon markets.




Ecofund (formerly Green Invest) to provided offset opportunities onSta te-owned land

The Queensland Government committed to establishing an exchange facility to assist developers nd offsetsfor vegetation clearing.

Progress

In March 2008, the Premier announced the ‘in-principal’ establishment of Ecofund Queensland ( Ecofund ) todeliver the government’s commitment to provide carbon and environment offsets for government and non-government organisations.

In November 2008, government approved the structure and operations of Ecofund. The EnvironmentalProtection Agency will be the sole shareholder of Ecofund once established as a Corporations Act companywith Queensland Treasury Corporation providing professional services including legal, nancial andaccommodation.

Ecofund commenced in January 2009 and services government agencies, statutory authorities, governmentowned corporations and local governments. From July 2009, Ecofund’s services will be extended to privatebusinesses and households.

The services provided by Ecofund will streamline the numerous offsetting activities currently taking placeacross government.

For example, since 2002, QFleet has funded the planting of more than 535 000 trees, with an estimatedcarbon sequestration potential of approximately 150 kilotonnes of CO 2 equivalent. From 1 January 2009,any carbon emissions offsets for QFleet vehicles will be arranged through Ecofund.

Since December 2007, government agencies have been required to purchase carbon offsets for domestic airtravel where available and for the period 10 December 2007 to 30 June 2008, the Chief Procurement Of ce hasoffset the equivalent to total of 13 290 tonnes (worth $139 478) on behalf of the Queensland Government.From 1 January 2009, carbon emissions from air travel and motor vehicle rental will be offset through Ecofund.




More infras tructure a nd services for public trans port, wa lking a nd cycling

The Queensland Government committed to provide more infrastructure and services for public transport,walking and cycling.

ProgressThe Government is making a massive investment in building the transport infrastructure necessary to supportthe transition to a low carbon future. These investments include:

Boosting pedestrian and cycling networks ($18 million): 88 new projects have been approved to expand thesouth-east Queensland cycle network by an extra 90 kilometres. This will help reduce Queenslanders’ relianceon private vehicles, cut traf c congestion and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Projects include the LoganCentral bike route, the Bicentennial Bikeway Stage 1 in inner city Brisbane, and the Riverway Cyclewaybetween Noosaville and Tewantin.

Pedestrian and cycling for the Gateway Upgrade ($30 million): A dedicated bike and walkway is beingincluded in the Gateway Upgrade Project.

Darra to Spring eld rail corridor ($872 million): By 2015, the Spring eld community will be serviced by a keypublic transport rail link.

Eastern Busway ($465.8 million): The next stage in the Eastern Busway from Buranda to Coorparoo will providethe next step in improving public transport services for the eastern suburbs.

Design speci cations for the Houghton Highway bridge factored in the potential impact of increased stormintensity due to climate change.

Completed projects such as the Tugun Bypass have signi cantly reduced the distance and time for travelbetween Currumbin and New South Wales and will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately3.5 per cent in comparison to the previous route.

Encourage Queensland motorist s to consider their vehicles’ emiss ions and makevolunta ry contributions to offset them

The Queensland Government committed to enable Queenslanders to voluntarily offset emissions from theirvehicles through the annual registration renewal process.

Progress

Following Government’s November 2008 decision to establish Ecofund to provide carbon and environmentoffsets for government and non-government organisations, the Government is considering options forintegrating the existing Clim ateSmart 2050 commitment with the proposed work of Ecofund.

Ecofund is working with Queensland Transport to investigate the potential to offer Queensland motorists theopportunity to purchase offsets for vehicle emissions as part of its broader work to enable households to

voluntarily offset emissions.Ecofund will extend it’s services to the general public from July 2009.




Offset ting 100 per cent of emiss ions from Government vehicles by 2020

The Queensland Government committed to offsetting carbon emissions from the Government vehicle eet by50 per cent by 2010 and 100 per cent by 2020.

ProgressIn support of ClimateSmar t 2050 , QFleet has developed greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets andinitiatives. On 10 December 2007, Government approved the QFleet ClimateSmart Action Plan 20 07–2010 .The Action Plan sets minimum emissions standards for vehicles, based on the Green Vehicle Guide (GVG)Greenhouse Rating system.

In accordance with the Action Plan, vehicles that do not meet the minimum greenhouse emissions standardsare required to have their carbon emissions offset from 1 January 2008, with QFleet meeting the cost until30 June 2008 and clients meeting the cost thereafter. As at 1 January 2008, there were 3774 vehicles in theQFleet eet which did not comply with the mandatory minimum GVG Greenhouse Ratings. QFleet met the costof subscribing these vehicles to Green eet, an accredited carbon offset program ($150 960). The cost ofsubscription from 1 July 2008 to 31 December 2008 has been recovered from client agencies on a

pro-rata basis.As at 31 December 2008, 84 per cent of passenger vehicles amd 94 per cent of light commercial vehicles inthe QFleet eet complied with the mandatory minimum GVG Greenhouse Ratings speci ed in the Action Plan.

Offsetting will be expanded beyond non-compliant vehicles to achieve the ClimateSmart 2050 targets of50 per cent total eet emissions by 2010 and 100 per cent by 2020.

The Action Plan sets whole-of-government CO 2 emissions reduction targets of 15 per cent by the end of 2010,25 per cent by the end of 2012 and 50 per cent by the end of 2017, compared to 30 June 2007 baseline.The overall CO2 emissions reduction is currently on track to meet the 15 per cent whole-of-government target bythe end of 2010. As at 31 December 2008, a reduction of 9.58 per cent in the CO 2 emissions had beenachieved across the Government eet compared with the 30 June 2007 baseline.

QFleet provides Action Plan progress reports quarterly to Chief Executive Of cers of Government agencies,biannually to the Minister for Public Works, Housing and Information and Communication Technology, andannually to Government. The rst annual report will be submitted for Government consideration in mid 2009.




Achieving ca rbon-neutral Government o f ce buildings by 2020

The Queensland Government committed to making government-owned of ce building carbon neutral by 2020.

Progress

On 10 December 2007, Government approved the Strategi c Energy Ef ciency Policy for Government Build ings to encourage reduced energy consumption and subsequent greenhouse gas emissions in QueenslandGovernment buildings. The Policy contains an energy-ef ciency strategy and includes minimum energyconsumption reduction targets of 5 per cent by 2010 and 20 per cent by 2015.

The Policy complements the Carbon Reducti on Strategy for Government Of ce Buildi ngs which aims to makeQueensland Government-owned of ce buildings carbon neutral by 2020, in a responsible andsustainable way.

Under the Strategi c Energy Ef ciency Poli cy for Government Build ing s , the Queensland Government has:

conducted a pilot program measuring carbon emissions from nine Government-owned buildings in the•Brisbane CBD to develop a carbon foot-printing methodology, which will be progressively expanded to

other Government of ce buildings;assisted agencies to develop their rst ‘Strategic Energy Management Plans’ for their building portfolios•(all agencies have prepared draft plans as at July 2008), outlining how they will achieve the Government’senergy consumption reduction targets;

established a central energy register (within the Department of Public Works) to allow agencies to store,•monitor and report energy consumption down to individual building level;

assisted several agencies with energy-ef ciency upgrades of their buildings through the use of long-term•(7–10 year) energy performance contracts;

initiated a pilot project to demonstrate the use of solar technology in a Brisbane CBD of ce building; and•

facilitated several building lighting retro t projects in Government buildings, primarily in energy-•constrained regional locations.

The rst annual report of the progress of departments in implementing the Policy and meeting their energyreduction targets will be submitted by the Department of Public Works for Government consideration inDecember 2009.

The principles of ‘ecologically sustainable development’ are being incorporated into new and refurbishedgovernment of ce buildings by adopting (i) a minimum 5-star GreenStar™ rating for new of ce buildingsincluding touts; and (ii) a minimum 4-star Green Star TM rating for all green leases, of ce touts andrefurbishments of existing of ce buildings in excess of 2 000m 2. In addition, a minimum 4.5 Star NABERSOf ceTMEnergy rating (previously known as ABGR) is presently being targeted for (i) new government of cebuildings; and (ii), refurbishments, touts and for leases in excess of 2 000m 2 - with a view to increase thisrating to 5 star (or equivalent best practice) where practicable.




ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12 Initia tives

Prepare regional-sca le climate cha nge projections

The Queensland Government committed to prepare downscaled regional-scale climate change projections,which are essential for enabling climate change to be incorporated into planning and decision-making.

Progress

CSIRO data has been used by the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) to prepare climatechange projections for the Queensland Clim ateSmart Strategy . The regional climate change data is also beingused for a range of other projects relating to regional Queensland, including regional water supply strategiesand hydrological modelling for selected Queensland catchments (Wide Bay Burnett, Mackay-Whitsundays,and North Queensland).

An investigation into the impact that land clearing has on climate change has also been completed and theresults will be published in the international scienti c journal Global Change Biology early in 2009, and bepresented at the international conference “Greenhouse 2009” in Perth.

QCCCE will continue to improve regional scale climate change projections through downscaling work usingexisting global climate change projections. As new global projections become available, QCCCE will update theregional projections to ensure Queensland has access to the best available information. A key to the successof this work is successful national and international collaborations with a range of organisationsand scientists.

Mainta in and enha nce national a nd internat ional resea rch collaborat ions

The Queensland Government committed to maintaining and enhancing collaborations with national andinternational research organisations to provide Queensland researchers with access to the best availableinformation on climate change.

Progress

At a national level the Queensland Government, through Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence(QCCCE), has developed collaborative research projects and agreements with CSIRO to provide Queenslandspeci c information on climate change and the likely impacts. Collaborative research projects have also beendeveloped with the Australian Government’s Bureau of Meteorology to increase access to data and participatein the development of seasonal outlooks and to develop seasonal outlooks for PNG and Paci c Islands. An outcome of these collaborations with the Bureau of Meteorology has been the development of SeasonalClimate Outlooks for Paci c Island Countries (SCOPIC), which is a software application which can generate andevaluate seasonal climate outlooks. A report on the potential use of SCOPIC in Queensland is being prepared.

QCCCE has also progressed collaborative exercises with a range of its international partnerships.

Its initiative with the UK Government’s Hadley Centre For Climate Change Prediction and Research,‘The Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth’, facilitates the recovery of historical instrumentalsurface terrestrial and marine global weather observations to underpin weather reconstructions over the last200-250 years for climate applications and impacts needs worldwide. This data will improve ourunderstanding of the drivers of extreme events such as droughts.

An agreement with the Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research in the UK has been established toimprove ‘downscaling’ of global climate model results to provide better regional information in tropicalregions and to better understand the drivers of climate in Queensland. This collaboration aims to provideimproved projections of climate change in Queensland and focuses on understanding and predicting thechanges to the water cycle in the tropics.

QCCCE also has a long standing Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the International ResearchInstitute for Climate and Society (IRI) to contribute to a global effort to improve climate modelling. An updatedMOU is currently being prepared to extend the agreement with the IRI.




Prepare a vulnera bility a ss ess ment of Queensland’s regions a nd sect ors

Under this initiative, the Queensland Government will report on the likely impacts of climate change inQueensland based on the latest national and international assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) and the CSIRO.

Progress

The Government’s Of ce of Climate Change produced a report during 2008 titled Clim ate Change inQueensland — What the latest Science is telli ng us . It is based on the latest peer-reviewed science on climatechange and its likely impacts described in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report released in 2007 and the CSIROand Bureau of Meteorology’s Cli mate Change i n Austral ia — Technical Repor t 2007 .

The report is an important tool to help Queenslanders understand the current situation and respondappropriately to the impacts of climate change. The report outlines the projected changes in climate and thesubsequent impacts for Queensland’s regions and sectors.

In addition, QCCCE has developed regional climate change summaries for 13 regions overing all ofQueensland. The summaries provide detailed climate information, tailored to each region, including projectedchanges to temperature, evaporation rates, rainfall and sea level.

Build the ca pacity of priority sectors t o manag e the impacts of climat e change

Adapting the Queensland economy to climate change requires that priority sectors have the capacity tomanage likely impacts. This initiative is aimed at capacity building in priority sectors by identifying criticalinformation gaps, providing information via internet and regional brie ngs, developing decision support toolsfor risk assessment and facilitating sector-based risks assessments.

Progress

The Queensland’s Government’s climate change website (www.climatechange.qld.gov.au) provides access togeneral information about climate change and how it is expected to affect Queensland, as well as information

about what the Government is doing about climate change. The Queensland Government’s LongPaddockwebsite (www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au) provides climate management information for rural Australia,including detailed maps and data and decision-support information services to help clients better manageclimatic risks and opportunities particularly those associated with the El Niño – SouthernOscillation phenomenon.

A series of regional brie ngs have been held throughout the previous year with over 80 workshops deliveredthroughout Queensland that have been attended by more than 1800 people. These have largely beenfocussed on rural industries, but under the Queensland Touri sm Strategy , several regional workshops havealso been delivered for the tourism industry.

The Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence has existing programs providing sector speci c climateinformation and decision support tools for rural industries and is now building on this information and

knowledge base to provide information to other sectors. The centre has also developed a range of tools andinformation systems for use in climate risk management including: SILO, AussieGRASS, LongPaddock, Forage,HowLeaky, SCOPIC and Flowcast. Data sheets on these tools are being nalised for public release.




Support resea rch through the Growing the Smart St a te-PhD Funding Program

One way in which the Government supports research into climate change impacts on Queensland is thoughthe Growing the SmartState PhD Funding Program. Managing climate change was identi ed as a priorityresearch area for 2007–08 SmartState PhD funding.

Progress

Fourteen Growing the SmartState PhD grants have been allocated to projects addressing climate change since2003. Two of those have been completed, one relating to rainforests in north Queensland and another onassisting corals to adapt. Other climate change PhD projects currently in progress relate to impacts on rarecorals and other marine ecosystems, oodplain management, communities adapting to climate change,industry identifying and managing impacts, biodiversity, waste management, increasing frequency ofheatwaves and consumer behaviour impacts.

Develop and implement Pha se One of the Clima teS mart Living ca mpaign

The purpose of the ClimateSmart Living education campaign is to empower Queenslanders to change their‘every day’ actions to reduce the impacts of climate change. The campaign will to raise awareness of climatechange issues and provide tools, information and actions Queenslanders could undertake to reduce theircarbon footprint.

Phase 1 focused on ‘calls-to-action’ and the cumulative effect that individual action could make at astate level.

Progress

Phase One of the ClimateSmart Living campaign was launched by the former Premier and the then Minister forEnvironment and Multiculturalism in Airlie Beach on 18 June 2007.

‘Calls-to-action’ under Phase One were launched by the Premier and/or Minister and were accompanied bytelevision and radio commercials broadcast across all commercial networks in metropolitan and regionalQueensland. ‘Calls-to-action’ during Phase One included: Change a Light Bulb Day (September 1 2007), Cool itby Degrees Day (November 16 2007), Climate Under Pressure Month (December 19, 2007 – January 19, 2008)and Queensland Unplugged Month (March 8 – April 3, 2009). Phase One concluded on World EnvironmentDay 5 June 2008 with direct community engagement in Brisbane’s central business district, reinforcing themessages delivered earlier in the campaign.

As a result of the ClimateSmart Living Phase One, more than 75 000 Queenslanders directly pledged toundertake the campaign’s actions, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by around 5000 tonnes each year.This is equivalent to making over 450 homes carbon neutral or switching off more than 38 000 incandescentlight bulbs. Research conducted throughout the campaign showed that many more people who chose not topledge were also undertaking climate-change-abating actions at home in direct response to the ClimateSmartLiving campaign.




Develop a w hole-of-government web porta l on climate chang e

To provide a single point of public access for information relating to climate change, the QueenslandGovernment committed to developing a whole-of-government web portal on climate change. A single point ofpublic access to climate change information ensures that Queenslanders are accessing the best availablescienti c information on climate change and that planning for the impacts of climate change is consistentacross the state.

Progress

The Of ce of Climate Change web site (www.climatechange.qld.gov.au) provides access to climate changeinformation, government policies and initiatives relating to climate change and links to other relevant sites,including the Garnaut Climate Change Review, Bureau of Meteorology, IPCC, and the LongPaddock.

The website also provides general information about climate change and access to fact sheets andpublications relating to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change science and impacts, andinitiatives and activities in the Of ce of Climate Change.

The web portal will continue to be enhanced and updated as new information emerges and as the Governmentundertakes new initiatives and policy development.

Ass ess risks for Queensla nd Government business

While encouraging Queenslanders to understand and manage the impacts of climate change, it is importantthat the Queensland Government also assess the risks to its own core business and manages thepotential impacts.

Progress

From 1 July 2008 all relevant proposals submitted to Government include a Climate Change Impact Statement(CCIS). The CCIS provides information to Ministers and Government about the possible impacts from climatechange on the proposal and adaptation responses that may be required to lessen the those impacts. It alsoprovides information regarding a proposal’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and possible responses tomanage those emissions.

The CCIS allows Queensland Government to evaluate the impact of its decisions on the State’s GHG emissionspro le, and also starts the process of appropriately addressing climate change risks across all levels ofgovernment business.

The Of ce of Climate Change has been working with other Queensland Government agencies to ensure thatrelevant Government submissions contain a CCIS. Since 1 July 2008, over 150 CCIS have been completed byGovernment agencies. The CCIS is being phased in to allow agencies time to adjust to the increasing rigour inthe assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and enable agencies to become more experienced with the CCISprotocols. Currently, under the rst phase, agencies are required to prepare a qualitative estimation ofemissions to demonstrate how their proposal addresses the impacts of climate change.

Queensland’s CCIS process is the rst of its kind in Australia and demonstrates world leadership in respondingto the climate change issues. Already other governments in Australia are looking to begin building thiscapacity. Information generated through the CCIS process at the earliest stage of a proposal’s design can beused to direct the development of that proposal for a positive climate change outcome. As a result ofimplementing the CCIS, proposals for new programs and projects will increasingly take account ofclimate change.

In 2009 the Queensland Government will introduce the next phase of requirements for agencies to include amore formal assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Commonwealth Governmenthandbook on calculating greenhouse gas emissions.




Explore ways of incorporating climate change environmental impact assessments

This action aimed to look at ways to meaningfully include consideration of the impacts of climate change inenvironmental impact assessments and other relevant assessments, in order to assist with making projectsand proposals prepared for Queensland’s future climate.

Progress

The Climate Change Impact Statement (CCIS) is the primary vehicle for including climate change in an impactassessment. Improving the way climate change is dealt with in impact assessments, through the CCIS process,will continue into the future.

Contribute to the nat iona l meta -da ta ba se of climat e change

The body of information about climate change science, its impacts on environment and society and ways toplan for and manage those impacts is rapidly growing and changing. Access to information and knowing whatis available can be challenging and a meta-database provides a means of collating what is available.

Progress

This action has been ful lled through the establishment of the National Climate Change Adaptation ResearchFacility (NCCARF) at Grif th University, to which the Queensland Government committed $2 million over ve years from the Climate Change Action Fund.

A key role of NCCARF is generating metadata by synthesising existing and emerging national and internationalresearch on climate change impacts and adaptation and developing targeted communication products.

Establish a network for Queensland climate change professionals

Adaptation to climate change is a new eld, and sharing information about how to adapt will be important forQueenslanders to understand the risks for their sector and business and to plan appropriately. A network ofprofessionals is seen as an effective means of sharing that knowledge and building capacity to adapt.

ProgressThis action has been ful lled through the establishment of the National Climate Change Adaptation ResearchFacility, which is actively establishing and maintaining adaptation research networks to link together keyresearchers and assist them in focussing on national research priorities.

Develop performa nce indictors for ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007–12

Consultation with stakeholders and Queensland Government agencies indicated support for performanceindicators to ensure effective and transparent implementation of the actions in ClimateSmart Adaptati on 2007–12 .

Progress

This action has been incorporated into the review of ClimateSmart 2050 , which has included an assessment of

the progress of all actions under ClimateSmar t Adaptat ion 20 07–12 .




Contribute t o implementa tion o f t he COAG Nationa l Clima te Cha nge Ada pta tionFramework

It is important that work done in Queensland on climate change adaptation complements federal work withoutduplicating it. Maintaining the Queensland Government’s contribution to implementation of the Council ofAustralian Governments (COAG) National Climate Change Adaptation Framework is a key way in whichQueensland supports national coordination in adaptation action.

Progress

Re ecting Queensland’s leadership in climate change adaptation, the Queensland Government was asked tochair the Adaptation Sub Group of the COAG Climate Change and Water Group.

Through the Adaptation Sub Group, Queensland contributes to the development and implementation ofclimate change impacts and adaptation initiatives and to the development of a national framework on climatechange adaptation.

Queensland will continue to contribute to COAG and national level adaptation action.

Contribute t o collabora tive clima te cha nge a ction t hrough NRRMMCThe Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (NRMMC) consists of the Australian/State/Territory andNew Zealand government ministers responsible for primary industries, natural resources, environment andwater policy. Ministerial Councils in Australia facilitate the national implementation of plans and proposalsthat would otherwise not be possible due to limitations of constitutional powers. The NRMMC has a signi cantclimate change agenda that Queensland contributes to.

Progress

The Climate Change in Agriculture and Natural Resource Management Working Group (CLAN) developed 11priority actions, which have been completed or are due for completion early in 2009. These actions includeassessments of vulnerability on natural and agricultural systems, developing methods/tools for managing theimpacts of climate change on speci c aspects of managing natural resources (for example, managingconservation areas following a re), improving the ef ciency of agriculture, developing effective collaborativeresearch, and effective ways to raise awareness and provide information for natural resource managers.

In 2008 the NRMMC released the report ‘Implications of climate change for Australia’s National ReserveSystem: A Preliminary Assessment’. The assessment was done by the CSIRO and investigates the possiblefuture impacts of climate change on Australia’s system of formally protected conservation areas and theconsequences of those impacts for the development and management of the reserve system.




Integrate climate cha nge into wa ter infrast ructure, mana gement a nd planning

The Queensland Government committed to integrate climate change consideration into decisions about waterinfrastructure, water-quality management of dams and reservoirs and water planning and water qualityimprovement planning.

Progress

The Queensland Government, through the Department of Natural Resources and Water (NRW) is leading thedevelopment of ve regional water supply strategies (RWSS) across the state for the Far North, North, NorthWest, Mackay Whitsunday and Wide Bay Burnett regions. The RWSS provide a framework for meeting watersupply demands over the next 50 years by considering the potential impacts of climatic variability and climatechange on the need for infrastructure development and managing available water.

Commissioned by the Department of Natural Resources and Water, the Queensland Climate Change Centre ofExcellence (QCCCE) produced detailed climate change analyses including regional-scale climate changeprojections to inform the development of three of the regional water supply strategies. Draft reports have beenprepared for the Wide Bay Burnett Region, Mackay-Whitsunday Region and North Queensland. As part of this

process, a workshop was held with climate specialists and key stakeholders to assess the impact on urbanand irrigation demands to climate change.

Generally, the assessments show a projected increase in demand and an expected reduction in surface watersupplies for the regions studied. This information is used to inform decisions about future water infrastructureneeds and the best way to manage water to make optimal use of all water sources. The RWSS also link to thewater quality improvement programs for each of the major catchments to ensure water is t for purpose.

Climate change considerations will continue to be integrated into decisions about water supply infrastructureand water management.

Diversify wa ter-supply s ources to reduce dependency on vulnerable supplies

Diversifying water supply will help reduce Queensland’s reliance on increasingly vulnerable rain-fed water

supplies. This action is about considering climate change in regional water security plans and integrating thepotential of less climate-dependant water supply options.

Progress

As a consequence of the regional-scale climate change projections developed by Queensland Climate ChangeCentre of Excellence, the Department of Natural Resources and Water has noted the need for increaseddiversi cation of water supply sources with non-traditional sources such as desalination and recyclingproposed under the various regional water supply strategies to supplement traditional water supply sources.Where traditional sources are not suf cient to meet water demand after demand management and recyclingoptions, alternative water supply sources are considered.

The foremost example of the Queensland Government’s commitment to diversifying water-supply sources isits $9 billion South East Queensland Water Grid. The water grid is a network of two-way pipes to transportwater from areas of water surplus to areas facing a shortfall. The project features hundreds of kilometres ofpipeline, new water storages, a desalination plant and three advanced water treatment plants.

Implementation of the South East Queensland Water Grid is progressing strongly. Pipeline works for theWestern Corridor Recycled Water Project, the Southern Regional Water Pipeline and the Eastern PipelineInterconnector have been completed and Gold Coast Desalination Project began distributing desalinatedwater into the South East Queensland Water Grid on 26 February 2009.




Promote wa ter-use ef ciency by encouraging a nd supporting lower wa terconsumption

Improved water use ef ciency will become increasingly important in the future with climate change. This action promotes water use ef ciency by encouraging and supporting water-ef cient technologies andpractices, installation of water ef cient devices through rebate or subsidy schemes, and the development andadoption of better water-saving devices.

Progress

The Queensland Government has made signi cant progress with the development and implementation ofprograms designed to promote water use ef ciency. Examples include:

The Home WaterWise Rebates Scheme commenced in mid-2006 to retro t water ef cient appliances in•Queensland homes. The scheme expanded to a total of $339.3 million with the allocation of a further$32.1 million in the 2008–09 budget. To date, 567 000 applications have been approved for appliancesworth more than $292 million. The scheme concluded in December 2008.

The HomeWaterWise Service, which delivered a subsidised service that enabled licensed plumbers to visit•

residential homes to install water ef cient devices and provide advice on water saving strategies at a lowcost. In total, the State Government contributed $34.5 million and Local governments committed$7.5 million to the program. At the conclusion of the program in November 2008, 228 551 retro ts werecompleted, exceeding the target of 224 187.

The Lifestyle WaterWise Grants Not-for-Pro t Organisations was launched in December 2006 and targeted•not-for-pro t organisations to reduce water usage mostly for parks and playing grounds. Two rounds ofsubmissions resulted in 594 successful groups sharing the $10 million fund. An example is the NanangoAgricultural, Pastoral and Mining Society who used a $30 000 grant to install two 125 000 litre rainwatertanks, saving 477 500 litres of town water a year. This grants program is now complete.

The Great Artesian Basin Sustainability Initiative (GABSI) is a joint State-Commonwealth project which•aims to rehabilitate eligible uncontrolled artesian water bores and replace open bore drains with pipeddistribution systems. In 2007–08, 9500 megalitres per annum of water was saved from the basin, 34 boreswere rehabilitated or piped and about 1000 kilometres of bore drain was replaced with pipelines. The GABSI is designed to have three 5-year stages, with the second stage to be nalised in June 2009.

The Government has also administered a number of funding programs to assist councils and business to•develop and implement strategies that reduce consumption and/or systemic loss of potable water.For example, the Water and Sewerage Program (WASP) includes a capital subsidy to councils for reductionof consumption and/or loss of potable water in reticulated systems. This component of WASP provides atotal allocation of $50 million for the period June 2006 to June 2011.




Further explore the use and mana gement of recycled wa ter on s ta te-controlled roads

The Queensland Government’s program of road works is particularly vulnerable to any signi cant futurereduction in water availability resulting from climate change. To assure the resilience of the State’s publicroads in the face of future water constraints, the Government committed to further explore the use andmanagement of recycled water on state-controlled roads.

Progress

The Government, through the Department of Main Roads (DMR), now uses a signi cant portion of water fromrecycled or other non-potable sources in its roadworks. RoadTek, the commercial delivery arm of theDepartment, uses recycled water in preference to potable water wherever available. To ensure safety of thepublic, Class A recycled water must be used unless considered safe by a risk assessment.

Non-potable water from recycled or other sources may have a variety of salinity, acidity, heavy metal andpathogenic characteristics, with corresponding pavement quality and health implications. DMR isprogressively establishing arrangements to manage use of recycled and other non-potable water that addressthese issues, which will secure optimal business, environmental and safety outcomes at a local level across

the State.In the past 18 months, DMR has also prepared:

An Operational Water Use Plan aimed at ensuring that roadworks water use is ef cient and safe, with a•preference for lower quality water in regions where shortfalls in portable water are anticipated byregulatory authorities; and

A draft• Sustainab le Water Use in Main Roads policy, to provide strategic direction to DMR on using watersustainably, including in roadworks.

DMR will continue to progress its long-term vision of sustainable water use. Availability and the quality ofrecycled water and non-potable water from alternative sources continues to be a challenge across the State.

Continue to assess changes to Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates

The Queensland Government committed to contribute to a study to assess how climate change might affectthe estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation.

Progress

The project, initiated by the Department of Natural Resources and Water (NRW), has been completed. Itconsidered indicators such as the duration and magnitude of signi cant rainfall events and the likely impactson dams. While there were many detailed ndings of the study, the main conclusion was that there is noobservable trend to indicate that PMP estimates are affected by climate change at this time.

NRW will continue to estimate PMPs using current technologies. Reviews and assessments of changes to PMPwill be conducted every 20 years.




Continue to apply water management strategies in government-owned buildings

The Queensland Government has shown leadership with regard to water conservation and is committed tocontinue applying water management strategies in government-owned buildings.

ProgressThe Government, through the Department of Public Works, has progressively implemented the GovernmentBuild ings Water Conservation Program to reduce water consumption by at least 25 per cent through theimplementation of water ef ciency best practices, primarily in new and existing government commercialbuildings, facilities and parks.

To date, water use has been signi cantly reduced in 37 Government buildings in South East Queenslandcovered by the Program. This reduction equates to 54 per cent or 360 200 kilolitres saved when comparing thebaseline year of 2004–2005 and 2007–2008 annual water data.

Under the Program:

water monitoring trials have been completed in 80 George Street and 111 George Street with some•

bathrooms tted with water-saving technologies, and water usage being monitored and compared withbackground data collected up to the end of June 2006

a Water Ef ciency Labelling and Standards (WELS) policy has been implemented within DPW to guide•water ef ciency measures in new buildings, as well as refurbishment and maintenance works

water ef ciency management plans (WEMPs) have been implemented in high water use DPW of ce•buildings in the south-east corner of the State; including installation of sub metering and the remotemonitoring of water consumption

chemical enhancement units have been installed on air conditioning cooling towers in DPW owned of ce•buildings to reduce potable water consumption

a program of works is underway to install water ef cient tapware, showerheads, ow restrictors, to adjust•urinal ow rates and to replace inef cient toilets in DPW owned of ce buildings. Works in south east

Queensland buildings have been completed and the program is being extended to buildings in current andpreviously drought affected regions throughout the State

alternative water collection systems are being piloted in four CBD of ce buildings to harvest rainwater•and air conditioning condensate for use in air conditioning cooling towers to reduce potablewater consumption

a grey water re-use system is being piloted in a Brisbane CBD of ce building •




Integrate downsca led a nd regional climate cha nge projections intohydrological models

The Queensland Government committed to integrate downscaled and regional-scale climate changeprojections into hydrological models for water planning and assessment of changes in ood risk for urban andinfrastructure planning.

Progress

Given the protracted drought in central and south-eastern Queensland and its impact on urban and rural watersupplies, A major focus for the Queensland Climate Change Centre for Excellence (QCCCE) since inception hasbeen to contribute climate change projections to hydrological modelling and analysis on water resources.

In March 2007, QCCCE indicated in its report The South East Queensland Drought to 20 07 that the currentdrought was the worst on record for the catchments of the Wivenhoe, Somerset and North Pine dams. The report also indicated that there had been a strong drying trend in eastern Queensland since 1950, and aweaker drying trend since 1900.

QCCCE is currently producing regional climate change analyses and information to support the regional watersupplies strategies being developed by the Department of Natural Resources and Water, has been activelyinvolved in providing advice to the Queensland Water Commission throughout the current drought and hasprovides advice to the SEQ Regional Water Alliance.

Include climat e chang e considerations in farm ma nag ement sys tems a nd propertyplanning

This action promotes working with the agribusiness sector to have climate change considerations included infarm management systems, property risk planning and farm business decision-making.

Progress

The Queensland Government, through the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F) is

continuing work on the Property Management Systems Initiative (PMSI) under the Farm Management SystemsMemorandum of Understanding established with the Queensland Farmers Federation.

PMSI projects have a focus on water as a critical input into vegetable production systems, and climate changeas an important risk to the future pro tability and sustainability of these systems. DPI&F has nine PMSIprojects that are run in partnership with industry and regional Natural Resource Management groups.

In order to identify relevant climate change tools and models for incorporation into industry farm managementsystem programs, DPI&F has been assisting the Queensland Farmers Federation to conduct a Risks andOpportunities Assessment. This assessment identi ed regions and commodities most at risk, the factorsdriving these risks, identi ed opportunities and strategies for Queensland’s intensive agriculture (e.g. newvarieties, new crops, new practices, new locations), scoped requirements and adaptation information gaps inshorter term climate projections and regional/industry scenarios and made recommendations for future

investment, and developed an action plan to guide industries in their planning roles.Using this information, Queensland Farming Federation member organisations Cotton Australia,CANEGROWERS, Queensland Dairyfarmers’ Organisation, Nursery and Garden Industry Queensland, andGrowcom are currently developing industry-speci c Farm Management Systems with climate changecomponents.

The PMSI projects will run until 2010–2011.




Explore opportunities t o continue clima te workshops he ld for theag ricultural s ector

Working with producers to better understand and manage climate variability and change has been a focus ofthe Queensland Government for a number of years. This action looked at opportunities to build on thatsuccess with a focus on climate change projections, identifying possible impacts and identifying options foradaptation.

Progress

Throughout 2007–2008, Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) and the Department ofPrimary Industries and Fisheries conducted workshops and gave seminars and presentations at workshopsrun by several agricultural groups including AgForce, QFF, Women in Agriculture groups, sheep and beefproducer groups, agribusiness, dairy industry groups, cotton, and horticulture. QCCCE also conductedpresentations for University of Queensland students at Gatton/St Lucia, and gave technical advice while onstands at agricultural eld days including Farm Fest.

These workshops employed tools and materials designed by QCCCE. For example, at workshops for the grazing

industry in Western Queensland, QCCCE trialled the use of its Climate Risk Matrix — a tool speci cally designedto help identify vulnerabilities to climate change, in any sector, through a participatory workshop process.

To meet the growing demand for the workshops, QCCCE proposes in 2009 to further develop the materials,including the Climate Risk Matrix, and roll out a series of workshop with peak industry bodies to enable themto run climate change adaptation workshops and training with their own constituents.

QCCCE provided regular columns on climate variability and change in various rural press including RuralWeekly, Queensland Country Life, ABC and commercial TV to reinforce and build on learnings from workshops.

Continue research and development into farming practices affected by changedconditions

To help address the challenge of maintaining productivity and pro tability in the face of increased climatevariability and declining irrigation water supplies, the Queensland Government committed to continueresearch and development into enhancing market competitiveness of farming practices affected by changedconditions.

Progress

The Government has made signi cant progress with research and development into farming practices affectedby changed conditions to enhance market competitiveness. These include:

using APSFARM and other simulation tools to develop systems for farmers that mitigate climate risk•and variability

undertaking speci c analysis of impacts of projected climate scenarios on Central Queensland grain•cropping systems

development of a project to evaluate high-yielding irrigated grain for rice and cotton farming systems•conducting workshops in the Lockyer Valley and Burdekin to assess the impact on horticulture from•changes in temperature and water availability, in association with CSIRO and Horticulture Australia Limited




Develop commodity-speci c forecas ting models for regional climate chang escenarios

The Queensland Government committed to develop commodity-speci c forecasting models for climate changescenarios at a regional scale.

Progress

The Government has developed a range of commodity-speci c forecasting models for climate changescenarios, including:

development of decision support software for irrigated crops•

development of a modelling tool for rice to look at the impacts of climate variability on rice production•

development of a beef forecast model which enables climate change scenarios to be assessed in terms of•their impacts on gross margins and pro tability of cattle properties and regions

research into the impact of climate change on regional scale wheat yields and adaptation options, using a•shire scale modelling approach

Implement act ions in the National Agriculture and Climate Change Action Plan

The National Agri culture and Clim ate Change Action Plan 200 6–09 is an agreement by Australian governmentsto develop a coordinated framework for climate change policy in agriculture to contribute to the developmentof a sustainable, competitive and pro table Australian agricultural sector into the future. In 2007–08, theCommonwealth Government has provided funding for 19 speci c projects under the Action Plan and theQueensland Government has committed to implement actions to help ful l Queensland’s responsibilities.

Progress

Government research undertaken by the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries which contributes towork under the National Agri cultur e and Clim ate Change Action Plan 2006 –09 includes:

Investigating whether reductive acetogens from kangaroo foregut contents can reduce methane emissions•

from cattle. Although they have a large foregut like sheep and cattle, kangaroos emit very little methanecompared with sheep and cattle and appear to possess an alternative digestive mechanism tomethanogenesis.

Exploring the potential to grow the sorghum industry, and its downstream application for biofuels.•Preliminary economic analyses into the impact of growing the sorghum industry have been completed andan action plan for the second phase of the project was agreed.

Collaborative projects to build understanding and capacity to work on climate change issues (e.g. Class 1•weed invasion post-Cyclone Larry) and a potential collaboration to explore a range of new/emergingclimate change modelling tools on invasive species.

The Queensland Government will continue to contribute to Queensland’s responsibilities under the NationalAgricultu re and Climate Change Action Plan 200 6–09 .

Underta ke resea rch to dete rmine suitable plant varieties for Queensla nd regions

This initiative focussed on undertaking literature reviews and desktop research to determine suitable plantvarieties for Queensland regions in a changed climate.

Progress

The Government has commenced literature reviews and desktop research to determine suitable plant varietiesfor Queensland regions in a changed climate. For example, as part of the Government’s work on the PropertyManagement Systems Initiative (PMSI) with the Queensland Farmers Federation it has completed acomprehensive Risks and Opportunities Assessment which has identi ed potential new varieties, new crops,new practices and new locations for Queensland agriculture.




Resea rch partnerships on impacts on a gricultural commodities a nd a da pta tionoptions

Queensland’s primary industries may be affected by a range of potential future environmental impacts ofclimate change, such as drought. The Queensland Government is committed to maintaining and buildingnational research and development partnerships to generate knowledge of the impacts of climate change onvarious agricultural commodities and to assess adaptation options.

Progress

The Government has made signi cant progress building national research and development partnerships withan interest in climate change impacts and adaptation.

For example, the Government is currently in discussions to create a new Agricultural Production SystemsResearch Unit (APSRU) which would bring together a number of national and international agencies interestedin collaborative farming systems research and in the development and application of the AgriculturalProduction Systems Simulator (APSIM) model to solve agricultural problems. Partners in this project includethe Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F), Department of Natural Resources and Water,

CSIRO, University of Queensland, University of Southern Queensland and Wageningen University in theNetherlands. Agreements for the new APSRU should be completed in early 2009.

Through DPI&F, the Queensland Government has contributed to the Commonwealth Government’s ClimateChange Research Strategy for Primary Industries (CCRSPI), and sits on the CCRSPI Stakeholder AdvisoryCommittee.

It is also involved in a joint project with the CSIRO to assess the impacts of reduced ow in the Murray DarlingBasin on irrigated cropping, rural livelihoods and biodiversity. It will also look at adaptation strategies on awhole of farm basis.

Improve understa nding on the risks a nd impacts of climate chang e to coa sta lQueensland

This action was aimed at improving understanding about the risks and impacts of climate change to coastalQueensland, through work such as:

continuing storm-tide and wave monitoring systems•

improving projections of inundation and ooding due to changes in sea level and extreme events•

working with local government to identify and map areas most at risk from storm tides•

integrating the information gained into advice and tools (e.g. digital elevation modelling of coastal•Queensland)

Progress

Through the Protecting Our Coastal Communities (POCC) project, the Queensland Government is working toacquire high resolution digital elevation data for coastal communities of Queensland. A number of productswill be developed from the POCC digital elevation data. For example, the POCC digital elevation data will forma baseline dataset which will be used to identify areas vulnerable to current and future inundation due tochanges in sea level and extreme weather events.

The Department of Emergency Services has used existing digital elevation data from local governments toundertake a Storm Tide Mapping Project on Queensland’s coastline. Storm tide maps for twenty six LocalGovernment Authorities (prior to local government amalgamations in March 2008) have been completed. Individual maps are available through the Queensland Disaster Management Portal (www.disaster.qld.gov.au/dmportal/default.htm) with additional maps to be developed as data becomes available through thePOCC project.

It is expected that the initial establishment phase of the POCC will be completed by June 2010. Recurrentfunding has been provided for enhancement and maintenance of POCC systems and for possible additionaldata capture.




Contribute t o Queensland Local Government Clima te Chang e Mana gementStrategy

Local Government infrastructure needs to adapt to new climate risks to ensure appropriate infrastructureinvestment decisions are made to reduce long-term costs. The Queensland Government committed tocontribute to the development of a Queensland Local Government Climate Change Strategy.

Progress

With the support and assistance of the Government, the Local Government Association of Queensland hasreleased a guide, Adapting t o Climate Change, to help Councils throughout Queensland assess the likelyeffects of climate change on their diverse range of roles and responsibilities and plan appropriate responses.

Ensure regiona l planning include responses to climate cha nge

The Queensland Government committed to ensure that regional planning includes consideration of climatechange impacts and possible measures to adapt.

Progress

During 2008, the Government has released two major regional plans (the draft South East QueenslandRegional Plan 200 9–2031 and the draft Far North Queensland Regional Plan 2009–2031 ) which have providedan initial basis for incorporating climate change risks and issues into state planning.

Released on 7 December 2008, the South East Queensland Regional Plan 2009 –2031 includes strategies for:

greenhouse gas monitoring and mitigation•

establishment of the SEQ Climate Change Management Plan•

planning consolidated and integrated urban development•

protect the region’s highly valued green space•

reducing car dependence•

improving development in SEQ to respond to climate change risks•

The Far North Queensland Regional Plan 200 9–2031 , which was released on 9 May 2008, addresses climatechange issues by:

establishing a preferred settlement pattern that avoids new urban development in areas at risk from sea•level rise and storm tide inundation

maintaining 99.4 per cent of the region as ‘green space’•

promoting urban consolidation and self-sustaining communities•

encouraging alternative forms of transport, such as walking, cycling and public transport•

promoting good urban design that results in energy ef ciencies and reduction in greenhouse•gas emissions

Other regional plans are being developed and updated, and will include climate change risks and issues.




Incorpora te clima te change into S ta te Flood Risk Manag ement Policy and pla nning

The Queensland Government’s activities in ood risk and stormwater management include publishing theQueensland Urban Drainage Manual , ood risk policy development, technical support for ood mitigationsubsidy programs, and administration of State Planning Policy 1/03 Guideline: Mitigating the Adverse Impactsof Flood, Bush re and Landsli de . This initiative intends to ensure that these policies adequately incorporaterisks associated with climate change.

Progress

The Department of Natural Resources and Water (NRW) is exploring opportunities to integrate Flood RiskManagement issues, including climate change related aspects, into existing regional planning processes and/or other policy mechanisms such as state planning policies, in partnership with other agencies. Discussionswith Queensland Government agencies are analysing the current approach to ood risk management, with theaim of clarifying roles and responsibilities across government.

Expected timeframe for completion is December 2009.

Update the Queensland Urban Drainag e Ma nual as needed

The Queensland Government committed to updating the Queensland Urban Drainage Manual to re ectchanges in hydrology associated with climate change. It is published as part of the Queensland Government’sactivities in ood risk and stormwater management and provides technical and engineering procedures for theplanning, design and management of urban stormwater drainage systems.

Progress

The Queensland Urban Drainage Manual (Second Edition, 2007) is a design manual, providing advice forplanners. It has been updated to provide for the consideration of potential climate change impacts onstormwater drainage designs, including the the adoption of Australian Rainfall and Runoff data andinformation. The Manual will be reviewed and updated in the future as required.

Periodically review phys ical infra st ructure to determine clima te cha nge risks

Climate change impacts have the potential to in uence the planning, design, construction, operation andmaintenance of infrastructure in Queensland. These impacts are to both existing infrastructure (which hasbeen designed based on historical climate) and future infrastructure (if climate change is not takeninto account).

Progress

The Queensland Government will build on the outcomes of the preliminary risk assessment of the impacts ofclimate change on infrastructure in Australia, currently being conducted by the Commonwealth Department ofClimate Change. Areas in Queensland highlighted in that preliminary assessment as potentially being vulnerablewill be the focus of more detailed risk assessment. The Queensland project will provide information speci c forQueensland infrastructure and will develop a methodology for a climate change risk assessment on

infrastructure, including interdependencies with other infrastructure and ow-on effects for service delivery.The Queensland project will also develop a methodology for other infrastructure-related actions in theaction plan.




Review t he effectiveness of exist ing planning tools in addressing climate cha nge

This action commits the Queensland Government to review the effectiveness of existing planning tools inaddressing the increased risks from climate change, including the:

State Planni ng Policy 1/ 03: Mi tig ating the Adverse Impacts of Flood, Bush re and Landsli de •

State Coastal Management Plan•

local government planning schemes•

Progress

Consideration of how State Planning Policy 1/03 could be adapted to take account of the impact of climatechange has been advanced through work during 2008 associated with the revision of the South EastQueensland and Far North Queensland regional plans, the drafts of which each outline a range of strategiesfor addressing climate change issues.

CSIRO is studying the impact climate change will have on the risk associated with a range of natural disastersincluding riverine ooding, bush re, and landslide. The study, ‘A First Pass SEQ Regional Climate Change Risk

Assessment’ is due to completed in early 2009 which may inform the requirement to tighten developmentconstraints under State Planning Policy 1/03 .

Local Governments are already required to constrain development in accordance with State Planning Policy1/03 and each new or revised planning scheme since the announcement of ClimateSmar t Adaptat ion 20 07–12 has included the requirements of State Planning Poli cy 1/ 03 . Work being undertaken by the Government todeploy a Standard Planning Scheme for local governments will incorporate requirements of State PlanningPolicy 1/03 and help Councils accommodate climate change risk in planning.

Review planning g uidance g iven to loca l government on s horeline eros ionmanagement

The Queensland Government committed to review planning guidance given to local government on shorelineerosion management to ensure it integrates climate change, and establish an associated grants scheme.

Progress

In view of the risks associated with sea-level rise from climate change, the Queensland Government willcontinue to use Shoreline Erosion Management Plans (SEMPs) as its preferred method for Local Governmentsto address shoreline erosion issues at the local level.

In 2007, the Queensland Government established the Shoreline Erosion Management Planning Scheme toassist Local Government’s in investigating the cause of erosion in areas where development was under threatand in developing remedial actions which considered environmental, social and economic concerns. Underthis scheme, funding of $400 000 was made available to assist local government with SEMPs in 2007–08,with a further $600 000 made available throughout 2008–09.




Promote continual improvement in clima te-sensitive des ign in the building s ecto r

By incorporating climate–sensitive design in housing, Queensland’s building sector can better respond topeople’s changing lifestyles and circumstances whilst minimising its impact on the on the environment.The Queensland Government is promoting continual improvement in climate-sensitive design in the buildingsector by pursuing a range of sustainable housing measures.

Progress

Stage Two of the Government’s Sustainable Housing measures were announced on 14 December 2008. Thesemeasures include:

from 1 March 2009, 5-star energy equivalence for new housing (Class 1 buildings), up from 3.5 or 4-star•(depending on climate zone)

from 1 March 2009, recognition of outdoor living areas in Queensland building standards via an energy•ef ciency credit of either 0.5 to 1.0 star (subject to industry consultation)

from 1 March 2009, increasing the energy-ef cient lighting requirements to 80 per cent (up from•40 per cent); increasing water-ef cient toilets to 4-star (WELS rated, up from 3-stars); requiring tap ware to

be a minimum 3-star (WELS rated) in bathroom basins, kitchen sinks and laundry trough; and water-ef cient garden irrigation systems (where permitted) from 1 March 2009

from 1 July 2009, hard-wired air-conditioners must be minimum 4-star energy rated•

from 1 January 2010, introduction of a Sustainability Declaration at point-of-sale for existing houses•and units

from 1 March 2010, new units (Class 2 buildings) will need to achieve a minimum 5-star energy equivalence•

Review ca pacity of Queensla nd’s exist ing energy infra st ructure to cope withclimate cha nge

Climate change is expected to affect existing energy infrastructure in Queensland. This project will assess thelikely impacts on existing infrastructure (which has been designed based on historical climate) and providerecommendation for how to adapt future infrastructure for Queensland’s future climate.

Progress

The Commonwealth Department of Climate Change is conducting a preliminary risk assessment of the impactsof climate change on infrastructure in Australia. Based on the ndings of this assessment, this project willdevelop a risk assessment methodology, assess the impact of climate change on the planning, design,construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure in Queensland.

Work with energy s uppliers to ensure netwo rks ca n cope with increas ed pea kdemand

The number of very hot days and heatwaves is projected to increase due to climate change. These conditionsincrease the peak electricity demand, while higher temperatures reduce the ef ciency of production andsupply. In this project, the Queensland Government will work with energy suppliers and network managers toensure they understand the risks and to develop adaptation options to manage the changes.

Progress

This action will use the outcomes of the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change’s assessment of theimpacts of climate change on energy and other infrastructure as a basis for working with stakeholders tobetter understand the changes in future peak demand and how to manage that.




Include climate chang e in prog rams t o improve a ppeal a nd a menity of publictransport

Increasing use of public transport in the community is a key to containing emissions from passenger vehicles.The Queensland Government committed to include climate change considerations in programs designed toimprove the appeal and amenity of public transport.

Progress

The Government has developed a range of public transport programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions andadapt to climate change. These include:

the TransLink Transit Authority working with its partners in utilising energy ef cient building design and•appliances in upgrades at stations and stops, and in building new stations

a TransLink program to phase out old buses and replace them with new more fuel ef cient and lower•emitting vehicles, with work to commence in 2009 on a comprehensive eet strategy which will furtherexisting initiatives and take into account transition to new technologies

improving ef ciencies and increase public transport attractiveness through initiatives such as greater•network co-ordination, service frequencies and hours of service in the TransLink Network Planthe• qconnect program which provides, plans, arranges and administers high quality contracted urban busand ferry services in towns outside South East Queensland

TravelSmart initiatives, which are designed to deliver behaviour change programs to replace car trips with•walking, cycling, car-pooling and public transport.

Advance Sma rt Travel Choices fo r South Eas t Queens land

Through Smart Travel Choices, the Queensland Government committed to encourage the community to replacesome of their car journeys with walking, cycling or public transport, and help traf c and freight move moreef ciently. By advancing Smart Travel Choices, the Queensland Government can reduce traf c congestionwithin South East Queensland.

Progress

Transport policy settings previously developed in Smart Travel Choi ces for South East Queensland — aTransport Green Paper (Smart Travel Choices) now have carriage within the Moving SEQ Forward — An UrbanCongestion Action Plan (the Congestion Action Plan).

A majority of initiatives included in the Congestion Action Plan arose out of the Smart Travel Choicesconsultation process and via consultations across Government. Approximately 1750 respondents providedfeedback on Smart Travel Choices through various channels, including written submissions, online surveys,and reply-paid surveys. A summary of the Smart Travel Choices consultation results was released inSeptember 2006.

Key ndings of the consultation included:

support for the overall policy direction of Smart Travel Choices•

agreement that transport is a priority for the region•

identi cation of public and active transport as the highest priorities•

recognition of signi cance of infrastructure and services in supporting smart travel choices•

Signi cant funding has been allocated for a program of congestion initiatives under the CongestionAction Plan.




Incorpora te risk ass ess ments in design a nd planning of transport infras tructure

The Queensland Government committed to reduce the level of vulnerability of the State-controlled road systemto impacts of climate change, and to increase the resilience of infrastructure that is integral to the State’ssocial, economic and environmental performance.

Progress

The Government, through the Department of Main Roads (DMR) is progressing a number of initiatives to adaptroad infrastructure design, planning and maintenance to the impacts of climate change. For example, the DMRhas commissioned the development of a Queensland Climate Change Framework which proposes amethodology and steps to establish a framework for the management of climate change impacts in relation tothe road network.

DMR’s signi cant body of technical guidance relating to the design and planning of transport infrastructurewill be progressively updated as climate change impacts becomes more clearly de ned and understood.

Review options t o mana ge impacts of climate chang e on ecosys tems

The Queensland Government is undertaking research into the impacts of climate change on ecosystems andthe development of mechanisms to manage those impacts.

Progress

The Nature Refuges Program provides one such mechanism to enable Queensland’s natural systems toadapt to the impacts of climate change. Nature refuges are created through enduring voluntary agreementsbetween the Queensland Government and private landholders, each acknowledging a committed partnershipto manage and protect land with signi cant conservation values while allowing sustainable land usesto continue.

Since 2005, recruitment of nature refuges has been signi cantly enhanced through the offer of nancialincentives to landholders in the form of a tender-based scheme known as NatureAssist. NatureAssist providesa mechanism for the delivery of funding from various programs, in accordance with those programs’conservation priorities.

The number of nature refuges gazetted under the Nature Conservat ion (Protected Areas) Regul ation 1994 hasincreased to 307 nature refuges covering an expanse of 730 961 hectares. Nature refuges currently outnumbernational parks and comprise the second largest expanse of Queensland’s protected areas estate.The Environmental Protection Agency is currently considering ways in which this program can be enhanced toimprove its ability to provide adaptation capacity to ecosystems.

Identify information g a ps on impacts of clima te cha nge o n biodiversity

Climate change has been identi ed as a threat to a number of species. To help mitigate this threat,the Queensland Government committed to identify critical information gaps by understanding the impacts ofclimate change on biodiversity, and identify priorities for research.

Progress

Through the Back on Track Species Prioritisation Framework, the major threats to priority threatened specieshave been identi ed. As the Environmental Protection Agency undertakes future species assessments it willgather additional information and identify information gaps on how climate change is likely to impact species.




Include climate cha nge information in conservat ion and na tural resourcemanagement

The Queensland Government will develop and include climate change information in conservation and naturalresource management programs and planning.

Progress

The Back on Track Species Prioritisation Framework has identi ed the major threats to priority threatenedspecies across Queensland, and actions to manage these threats. This information will be made available tothe public through ‘Back on Track’ Biodiversity Action Plans for each Natural Resource Management region,and the online Recovery Actions Database. Actions are already being incorporated into a variety ofconservation and natural resource management programs and Caring for our Country funding applications.A potential next step will be to incorporate the likely impacts of climate change on these major threats,and modify the future actions needed to manage them into the future.

Implement National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan

The Government committed to implementing Queensland’s responsibilities under the CommonwealthGovernment’s National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan 2004–2007 , including a review of the Plan.

Progress

The Queensland Government, through the Of ce of Climate Change, has contributed to a Strategic NationalAssessment of the Vulnerability of Australia’s Biodiversity to Climate Change. This national ‘BiodiversityVulnerability Assessment’ has been undertaken by an expert advisory group over a 3 year period (2006–2009)and will be released through the national Natural Resources Management Ministerial Council in mid-2009.

The draft Biodiversity Vunerability Assessment makes a signi cant contribution towards understanding therisks, challenges and management approaches needed to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate. Insightsfrom the Assessment are informing the development of a revised National Strategy for the Conservation ofAustralia’s Biological Biodiversity and a Queensland Biodiversity Strategy (to be completed by mid-2009).

These policy instruments will now recognise rapid climate change as a critical threat to biodiversity and willincorporate management strategies for climate-related risks.

All States and Territories, along with the Commonwealth Government, agreed to postpone review of theNational Biod iversity and Climate Change Action Plan during 2007 — pending completion of the BiodiversityVulnerability Assessment. Once the Assessment and a revised national conservation strategy have beenreleased, all jurisdictions — including Queensland — will review the need, form and function of a nationalbiodiversity and climate change action plan.

Work with the Grea t Ba rrier Reef Marine Pa rk Authority to implement jointinitiatives

The Queensland Government has committed to the implementation of measures that complement those

undertaken by the Great Barrier Reef Marine park Authority.Progress

Through initiatives such as the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan and the Reef water Quality Partnership, theQueensland Government is improving coordination and collaboration between governments and otherpartners in improving water quality for the Reef. The Queensland Government has committed $175 million over ve years to address water quality issues in the reef lagoon and will introduce new legislation to restrict boththe level and type of damaging pesticides permitted to run off into waterways owing to the Great Barrier Reef,and damaging farm practices such as over-grazing, tree clearing along creeks and excessive use of fertilisers.




Undertake ass ess ments of impacts on vegeta tion types, grazing land a ndcropping la nd

With many important contemporary natural resource policy issues including leasehold land management,vegetation management, freshwater and reef water quality affected by additional variability from climatechange, the Queensland Government committed to undertake an assessment of the potential impacts.

Progress

The Government, through the Department of Natural Resources and Water has developed the QScapelandscape modelling framework that integrates spatial models of erosion together with satellite mapping ofpasture cover and crop cover to simulate soil loss and catchment water quality.

In 2009, the QScape landscape modelling framework will investigate the application of selected climatechange scenarios recommended by the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence to show the effects ofa changing climate on water quality form various forms of land use in Central Queensland.

Expected timeframe for completion is late 2009.

Work with Na tura l Res ource Mana gement (NRM) bod ies to provide clima te cha ngeinformation

The Queensland Government committed to work with regional NRM Bodies to ensure the consideration ofclimate change issues in planning and regional investment strategies.

Progress

The Queensland Government has provided $17.2 million interim funding for continuing regional NRM programsacross Queensland in 2008–09 and has given consideration to proposals which contain both climate changeadaptation and mitigation strategies.

The Queensland Governemnt will continue to incoorporate climate change considerations in NRM by workingwith Commonwealth Government on its Caring for our Country business plan for Australian NRM in 2009–10.Under the plan, up to $260 million will be available for regional NRM over the next 4 years.

Improve models for coa st a l and riverine environments to incorporate clima techange risks

The Queensland Government committed to improve models for sediment movement and salinity intrusion incoastal and riverine environments.

Progress

Using CSIRO data, the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) has produced detailedclimate change analyses including regional-scale climate change projections. The Department of NaturalResources and water (DNRW) has developed the QSCAPE modelling platform which enables these climatechange scenarios to be incorporated into the assessment of sediment movement. These are being used byDNRW in an ongoing review of models for sediment movement. The state through DNRW is partnering withGeosciences Australia in a project called “A National Scale Vulnerability Assessment of Sea WaterIntrusion”. These projects will assist the state in incorporating consideration of:

sea level rise•

increases in rainfall intensity•

changes to sediment supply•

impacts on engineering, nourishment and other management resources.•




Build capa city of disa dvanta ged communities t o respond to climat e changeimpacts

The Queensland Government undertook to build the capacity of disadvantaged communities to effectivelyrespond to the potential social and economic impacts of climate change.

Progress

The Government has undertaken a number of actions to build the capacity of disadvantaged communities torespond to climate change impacts. These include:

Encouraged state and disaster district community recovery committees to participate in community•preparedness and climate change awareness activities. During the 2008 pre-cyclone season theDepartment of Communities participated in Bureau of Meteorology/Emergency Management Queenslandpreparedness and seasonal forecast sessions. Departmental staff also participated in pre-seasoncommunity preparedness awareness campaigns in a number of regional locations.

Reviewed all disaster district — community recovery plans to ensure climate change issues were included.•

Promoted awareness of climate change through Community Door Website on World Environment Day.•

Commissioned James Cook University to research and develop a methodology to support pre and rapid•hazard and community capacity assessment. James Cook University nalised a literature review and a draftmethodology was presented to the department and the State Community Recovery Committee inSeptember 2008. From this, the University is developing a practical assessment tool to assist in pre/postsocial and community impact assessments which will be nalised by the end March 2009.

Implemented a Queensland whole-of-government strategy to recruit, train and retain a disaster recovery•workforce to meet the need for recovery services in the future. To date, approximately 2500 staff fromacross government have been registered and trained to provide community recovery services.The Department of Communities will continue to promote training to ensure we have an adequate disasterrecovery workforce.

Provide planning a nd emergency mana gement a dvice on s torm tides

The Queensland Government committed to continue to provide planning and emergency management adviceon storm tides.

Progress

The State Coastal Management Plan provides planning guidance for coastal land use. As the result of a publicreview of the State Coastal Management Plan, the Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change, and Innovationannounced in September 2008 that a new plan was to be developed with a view to ensuring thatQueensland’s coastal areas are able to meet current and emerging issues such as adapting to the impacts ofclimate change. Public submissions on a draft of the new State Coastal Management Plan are expected tooccur early in 2009.

Coastal emergency management advice is provided through the Department of Emergency Services (DES). Forexample, DES has used existing Local Government Authority digital elevation data to undertake a Storm TideMapping Project on Queensland’s coastline. Storm tide maps for twenty six Local Government Authorities(prior to local government amalgamations in March 2008) have been completed. Individual maps are availablethrough the Queensland Disaster Management Portal (www.disaster.qld.gov.au/dmportal/default.htm).




Ensure tha t reviews of local disa ster mana gement plans include clima te chang e

The Queensland Government committed to ensure that reviews of local disaster management plans includerelevant climate change issues.

ProgressThe Government is currently working on a number of initiatives aimed to assist local governments to developtheir disaster management plans, including the revision of the Local Disaster Management PlanningGuidelines in 2009 and the development of Disaster District Planning Guidelines.

The Disaster District Planning Guidelines will assist local governments to consider climate change within adisaster management context enabling them to factor the projected impacts from climate change into thedevelopment of their disaster management plans. It is expected that the guidelines will be completed by 2010,the timeframe indicated in ClimateSmart Adap tati on 2007–12 .

Implement a ctions from the 2006 Cyclone Summit

In December 2006, the Queensland Government hosted a Cyclone Summit in Cairns which was attended by

more than 200 delegates and resulted in a range of prospective actions aimed at improving Queensland’spreparedness for, and responsiveness to, cyclones.

Progress

As a resulted of the 2006 Cyclone Summit, the Government has initiated a range of actions which haveimproved Queensland’s capacity to deal with cyclones, including:

Mailed 400 000 copies of the Preparing for Cyclones brochure to households in cyclone-prone areas from•Fraser Island to Cape York. Emergency Management Queensland Regional and Area Of ces distributed anadditional 13 000 booklets in the Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Maryborough areas for the2006/2007 cyclone season. DES distributed an additional 25 000 copies in August 2007 in preparation forthe 2007/2008 cyclone season, including 2000 in each of the Japanese, Italian and Chinese languagesand 1000 in the Hmong language. In preparation for this year’s cyclone season 40 000 updated copies inEnglish and 4000 in each of the Italian, Japanese, Chinese, Korean and Hmong languages were distributedin September.

Collaborated with the Australian Broadcasting Commission and the Bureau of Meteorology to develop and•distribute 40 000 Cyclone Tracking Maps. The maps provide information on how to track cyclones, what ismeant by cyclone warnings, information about preparing for cyclones and radio frequencies for receivingcyclone information. Revised Cyclone Tracking Maps will be distributed in time for the 2008/2009cyclone season.

Following the success of the inaugural Cairns Cyclone Summit, a Natural Disaster Summit was conducted in•April 2008 in Townsville. Planning for the 2009 Summit is underway with a venue to be determined.

Provided arrangements for extra funding to help local councils rebuild after natural disasters through the•Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements administered by Emergency Management Queensland.

Made signi cant progress with the Improving Indigenous Communities’ Resilience to Natural Disasters•project. Work has included completing an audit of critical infrastructure in remote Indigenous communities(in association with the Department of Local Government, Planning, Sport and Recreation) and equippingthe State Emergency Service and other community-based groups in the most remote and/or vulnerableIndigenous communities with Disaster Kits.




Extend preparedness and awareness programs for communities

The Queensland Government committed to extend ‘preparedness and awareness’ programs to communitieswhere the risk of extreme climatic events has increased.

ProgressLocal government authorities are conducting risk management studies which will be used by EmergencyManagement Queensland to develop:

a risk pro le for Queensland which includes climate change considerations; and•

preparedness and awareness programs targeted at communities which the risk pro le indicates face an•increased risk of climate events.

Local governments are expected to complete their risk management studies for consideration by EmergencyManagement Queensland by mid-2009.

Review the Queensland Heatwave Response Strategy

The Queensland Heat Stress Response Plan was developed in 2004 following a recommendation from theQueensland Emergency Medical Systems Advisory Committee. This followed an extreme heat event duringwhich 12 people died and there were 221 heat related hospitalisations. A similar event in January 2000 caused22 deaths and 350 injuries. With the potential for climate change to affect the frequency and extremity ofthese heat events, the Queensland Heat Stress Response Plan was to be reviewed to ensure its adequacy toaddress those risks.

Progress

The Queensland Heat Stress Response Plan is a living document which is continually under review.The Emergency Management Unit within Queensland Health regularly meets with the Bureau of Meteorology toreview the adequacy of warning measures currently in place to activate the Plan. Currently, the Bureau doesnot issue heat warnings but advises Queensland Health when ‘apparent’ temperatures will exceed 35 degrees

for more than two consequent days.The Government is also a nancial partner with the Queensland University of Technology in two projects aimedat better understanding the health risks associated with global warming. These are:

an evaluation of the environmental health risk of heatwaves associated with global warming •

development of a framework for assessing the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change•

Continue to invest in the prevention of mosquito-borne disea ses

Climate change has the potential to impact on vector borne disease incidence in Queensland. The QueenslandGovernment undertook to implement a sustainable and collaborative approach to mosquito surveillance andcontrol, including the development of management strategies for emerging risks due to climate change.

ProgressIn response to emerging risks, including those associated with climate change, the Government hasdeveloped draft collaborative mosquito management plans with local government, including the QueenslandMosquito Strategic Management Plan, Queensland Mosquito Management Implementation Plan and theQueensland Dengue Management Plan.

It is envisaged that implementation of the strategies and actions outlined in the Queensland MosquitoManagement Implementation Plan will commence by April 2009.

The current initiatives in the Queensland Mosquito Strategic Management Plan and the Queensland MosquitoManagement Implementation Plan are expected to be undertaken over a ve year period. The plans will beprogressively reviewed during this period.




Develop online Best Practice Sus ta inable Tourism pa cka ge

The Queensland Government committed to developing an online Best Practice Sustainable Tourism packagethat will allow individual businesses to contribute to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and adapt tothe impacts of climate change.

Progress

A stand-alone online sustainable tourism package was developed in December 2007 and loaded on theEnvironmental Protection Agency development website. Since then, consultation has been ongoing as to howthe package can be revised to provide advice on:

best practice in environmental tourism and cultural heritage management•

best practice in sustainable tourism infrastructure design•

sustainable tourism principles and their commercial application•

reducing greenhouse gas emissions, by providing practical advice on reducing waste, water use and•energy consumption

identifying and responding to climate change impacts•benchmarking and suitable accreditation programs.•

Completion of the online Best Practice Sustainable Tourism package is contingent on receiving feedback fromstakeholders and the implementation of the Government’s new climate change website, scheduled for early in2009. The online Best Practice Sustainable Tourism package is expected to go live by mid-2009.

Review a nd update t he ecoBiz program to promote ada ptat ion to climate cha nge

ecoBiz is a resource usage ef ciency (eco-ef ciency) program for businesses, which is focussed on achievingenergy and water usage ef ciency. What sets the ecoBiz program apart from other eco-ef ciency tools is that itprovides the user with a simple methodology for de ning resource costs in terms of units of production. Thisassists a business to prioritise areas for improvement, and enable accurate calculations of payback periods.

Progress

The Queensland Government is currently reviewing all internal ecoBiz processes and procedures to ensurethey promote adaptation to climate change.

The project is on track to update the ecoBiz to incorporate adaptation to climate change by 2010. The programis considering appropriate opportunities, including joint work with the Green Building Council of Australia andQMI Solutions, and has been discussing projects with companies that are potentially valuable adaptationcase studies.




Support energy and water-ef ciency innova tions through QSEIF and ecoBiz

The Queensland Sustainable Energy Innovation Fund (QSEIF) is the longest running Queensland Governmentprogram to speci cally target innovation in energy and water. Since its commencement in 1999, there havebeen 13 funding rounds to date, with $8.9 million invested in 77 projects. The Government’s eco-ef ciencyprogram for businesses, ecoBiz, is another key initiative which supports energy and water-ef ciency.

The Government committed to continue its support of energy and water-ef ciency innovations through QSEIFand ecoBiz.

Progress

Given the importance of investment in this area detailed in the Garnaut Climate Change Review, theGovernment is in the process of investigating options for reshaping the QSEIF to more directly supportemerging low emission technologies.

The ecoBiz program has supported innovations in energy and water-ef ciency through the awarding ofapproximately $100 000 in rebates in 2008 with an additional $300 000 in rebate applications underconsideration. Over 2008 the ecoBiz program has more than doubled the number of partners to 33,recognising companies that have made water and energy ef ciency improvements and innovations. It willcontinue to promote holistic resource usage ef ciency change into the future.

Work with insurance a nd na nce sector to understa nd risks a nd potential costs

The Queensland Government seeks to promote increased understanding of the potential impacts of climatechange upon the operations of the insurance and nance sectors and their clients.

Progress

Meetings between the Of ce of Climate Change and representatives of the insurance and nance industrieshave identi ed potential issues, impacts and challenges being faced by the sector and the steps it is taking torespond. Dialogue between the Queensland Government and these stakeholders will continue to ensureimproved understanding of the impact of climate change on insurance premiums and the role the sector canplay in adaptation responses.

Identify investment and business opportunities for Queensland

The Queensland Government committed to identify, evaluate and create momentum for investment andbusiness opportunities for Queensland from climate change.

Progress

The Government has made signi cant progress identifying investment and business opportunities forQueensland from climate change. In particular, its response has focussed on developing a range of programsassisting Queensland small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Examples include the Carbon Outlook Projectand the Cleantech Enterprise Pipeline led by the Department of Tourism Regional Development and Industry

Climate q Report

Documents